WATCH NEXT Why Putin Became A Killer ruclips.net/video/9SUjqIvVZHY/видео.html ruclips.net/video/K4O3D7CfThA/видео.html The Riddle of Why Russians Don't Protest Why Russians Rejected Freedom (Gorbachev) ruclips.net/video/VEz5VsVLp4s/видео.html Putin's Partial Mobilisation (it's disastrous) ruclips.net/video/HravTYSIVu4/видео.html ------ You can now support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB ------- MORE TO WATCH The REAL meaning of the killing of Dugin's daughter ruclips.net/video/y-Zk7K9Un2U/видео.html The Postmodern Hell Of Russian Propaganda ruclips.net/video/_j6Vg7yLx54/видео.html Why the Crimea Bridge Attack Shows Putin's Decline ruclips.net/video/FfzQFCjDPS0/видео.html THIS explains why Russia starts insane wars ruclips.net/video/V6UiEXrVrvg/видео.html
Putin has already passed the point of no return. The nuclear escalation therefore will be one of his next steps. In my opinion, the real reason for the last mobilisation in Russia was not to win the war with more soldiers, but to let young men die in the Ukraine war, identify and arrest those who oppose the war and drive the rest out of Russia. It would have been these young men who would have taken to the streets in any demonstrations to demand a change of system and overthrow Putin. We believe that Russia has ruined its future, but only if the world order does not change. If there is a global nuclear war that destroys our current livelihood with all its global interconnections, Russia would be better off because Russia is used to renunciation and deprivation and a dissatisfied population cannot topple the regime because of a lack of young men. This means that nuclear escalation is not an option for Putin, but a necessary measure.
I think another reason he might not use nukes is that he's simply having too much fun playing war general. It sounds like a joke but I think Putin actually enjoys the high stakes and map warfare.
I've been tracking events and looking at all kinds of information about this war since the beginning. I'm not an expert on Putin, but of course I too try to estimate what he would or wouldn't do and such things. I've also started following you channel, since come up with really relevant information and a much better understanding of Russia than I will even be able to get. So, I too have thought about the things you've been sharing that Putin has said in the past and I've come to believe something else: Going back a lot of your video's, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe in the 20th century. Thinking about that more, I think Putin didn't mean it literally. The collapse of the Soviet Union is his personal greatest loss and he likes talking about it as if it was humanity's greatest loss as that view is to his convenience. In much the same way I would interpret Putin's nuclear war views. I mean 'As marters, Russians would go to heaven' is actually Putin's way of saying 'I like to be able to use nuclear weapons as threats, so Russians should think of nukes like this and let me make the threats I want to make.'. Meanwhile explaining himself like this doesn't make it clear to the West that he doesn't really want to use nuclear weapons, he just wants credible threats. The rest of his explanations is just to further that agenda, nothing more to it. I personally don't think Putin's words ever should be taken literally, but of course I could be wrong, just sharing this information/view, maybe it's of some use to you. Thanks for your great work.
This is one of the only channels that truly delve into multidimensional thinking on the topic of Russia-Ukraine and does so in a multidisciplinary way.
Something that is lacking in western politics at the moment unfortunately. It feels like some parts of Eastern Europe are proving to be better examples of this currently.
When he talks about a "world without Russia in it", I recall a line from the movie Der Untergang (The Downfall) where Magda Goebbels, as a justification for poisoning her six children, says she doesn't want them to live in a world without Hitler...
Yep. When I heard that line from Putin I was shocked. Yes up until that point he had been a jackass but that was the point I realised he had gone off the deep end.
@@ryanjonathanmartin3933 The hypocrisy of Putin's statement is absolutely absurd, he equates himself with Russia. The truth is that the last Romanovs probably thought the same, yet Russia is still there, and will be there, unless Russians take Putin's words for granted and destroy Russia by going down Putin's bath.
Is your problem that you cant read? Or perhaps you were just listening to Vlad, who within a minute completely misquotes Putin, despite the text being in front of his face...thereby revealing his appalling anti-Russian bias? "What good is the world FOR US (ie. the Russians) if it is a world without Russia?", is what Putin actually said and it is entirely different to Vlad's misrepresentation.
If we give in to nuclear blackmail, we'll wake up to a world in which nuclear blackmail is normal. So while it's interesting to ponder the question, I don't see any alternative but to simply ignore the threats entirely. Pragmatically, is better face down one risk today than an endless procession of them tomorrow.
It would almost be rational, in the face of Putin's version of rationality, for the West to become the nut banging his shoe on the UN lectern noting that the billion of us in the West would simply overrun and take all of Russia for our own rather than go through a nuclear exchange if Russia were to hit us to try to wipe us out; except that would be totally out of character for the West. But Unless Russia is going to nuke itself, the West simply taking Russia for itself subjugating it's comparatively small population (or treating them as Russians have treated others) as it's new home is the sort of the crazy answer to why his views on wiping everyone else out to enjoy being wiped out are futile. This does seem escalatory and character crushing though 😀
Damn straight! Yet, the threats should not be ignored, but met with very precise counter threats. Or rather, clear cut information about what the consequences will be, if the Russkies proceeds with, whatever they are threatening to do next. Be it chemical, biological, or nuclear. Or something entirely different, like blowing up a dam. Or as it usually goes according to the Russian disinformation guide book.. "what their adversaries, will do next". So it needs not to be directly escalatory.. You just make sure the message is very precise and clear. And then you just stand firm. That's the only way to keep a psychopath/sociopath from escalating his ambitions anyways. Because that's the only language he/she understands. And Putin is a thoroughgoing example of this.
@@SlpBeauty333 The madness of the crowed is what concerns me the most these days, because most expert seem to be blind to this madness that is growing and spreading in an organic way, or they are too victimized by their expertise to deal with it in a collective interdisciplinary manner.
@@SlpBeauty333 Thank you. I remember way back in the 1990’s in a interview Barbara Walters asked Trump if he was considering running for a president. My thought was “why is she asking this idiot if he’s going to run for a president!”. Then I guess people kept asking him that. No wonder he though he could be a president and other people thought so too. I’ve never liked him. Sorry for your misfortune to know these people.
@@SlpBeauty333 It’s interesting what you have to say. But will Trump and his family get off unscathed? I saw and interesting interview by Jon Stewart with Jeoffrey Berman, the former attorney at the Souther New York District and Jon repeatedly asked him the question why The Wealthy seem to get away with crimes they commit, while everyone around them don’t seem to have those privileges and end up in prison. Jeoffrey Berman, who seems to be a person of integrity, dodged this question, like he was under a gag order or something like that. Maybe you know something about the famous Southern NY District that the rest of us don’t know. After all, it is famous for finding criminals guilty of all kinds crimes, like corruption and racketeering. But some people that seem to be on the top of these pyramids like Trump & family seem to be immune to the legal system. Why is that? Do you know anything about how this works in New York?
I've said for months now, that we cannot predict Putin's actions by thinking what would be the logical thing for a Western leader to do in his position, because clearly he has been repeatedly doing thing that Western leaders have been considering illogical. We must think what the enemy thinks, not what we would think if we were the enemy. I also fully agree about the multi-disciplinary view: it is not only about military, but also about psychology, culture, philosophy, history, economy, ... I hope your voice will be heard by those Wester leaders who make important calls on the decisions related to the war.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican well yea, there's also a Finnish expert Martti J Kari who has said about this years before war (you can see one of his lectures here: ruclips.net/video/kF9KretXqJw/видео.html - you can enable English subtitles there, unfortunately I don't think he has done any content speaking English). But what is putinology? Why is it the way it is? Why the whole regime works the way it does, and what is the role of the russian citizens? For getting answers to those questions, that is where I think more disciplines are required. Even though yes, the distilled answer pretty much is force.
If this were a Chess game, both players would be playing chess. Matching against Putin the possibility that he will set the house on fire just to get back at you for taking both his knights is very real.
@@MrApolkov he would also say that it's your fault and he just had to do it as a preventative measure. And then he would go crying to the arbiter how the opponent touched the board at a wrong time so he must be declared the winner.
I lived in Berlin, also visited Moscow and have had some exposure to Russian media (past and present). There seemed to be a visible difference between war memorials in the west and Russia. The people lost during wars were remembered for their sacrifices. In Russia it seemed there was a slant towards the glory of Russia through those people. A celebration of how mighty Russia is, how much. Celebration of suffering. Very weird
Glad to see you are feeling better, and happy to see your latest works so valuable to all of us trying to unravel all the madness inside Russia. Thank you!
It really is. I remember just a week before the war, I was thinking that it might happen, but I still doubted it - becaus it would be such an irrational thing to do even in the self-interest of Russia. Then that speech immediately before the war came out and it dawned on me that, yes, Russia will really invade, and my position as a casual observer had completely misjudged the motivations at hand. Like so many in the western sphere, I used to think of Putin as a cold, ruthless, self-centered rational demagogue, when that was only maybe half the story. This channel more than any other has helped with creating an understanding of Putin and Russia as a political power that finally goes beyond the vey casual and incomplete take I and many in the west have had before. So, yes, than you for your work, it is appreciated and helps a lot of people tring to genuinely understand what is happening right now in geopolitics where it concerns Russia.
mean I would want my leader to state that there is no point in world existing without his people surviving in it. Shouldn't that be the core of anything called "defense policy". And I don't agree that you are a philosopher, at least I know for certainty that your analysis of ukraine war isn't philosophical but vulgar psychoanalysis of putin's "complete metaphysical worldview", to which you somehow have a direct access. I wonder what would be your psychoanalysis of minds of western leaders over the scam of iraq invasion? The way I see it, putin wants to make russia a hegemonic regional and global super power, a glory for russian nation. Well, I don't find it irrational at all. The only way to achieve it is to be successful at whatever putin is doing. And I wish that he is successful in his endeavors. A shift of some cultural/economic/military/political hegemony from west to rest of the world is the best thing for all the non-western cultures in the world. We don't want west to continue come marching into our lands in different forms in the name of WMDs, LGBTQ+ rights, Democracy, secularism, progress and science etc. to shape us in their form. West barely constitutes 15% of worlds population but somehow have monopoly to represent human nature, values, culture and human future etc. India, china and in general the global south have had enough of being dominated by the west. Putin, russia and every country has right to seek hegemony and power over others in the same way as west had far last few centuries.
@@saimbhat6243 Are you just copy/pasting this same comment under every OP? You make some valid points, and I like the idea of doing a comparative analysis of say, the US and its allies' psychology regarding the Iraq war with its imaginary WMDs, and Mr Putin's reactions to imaginary threats from Ukraine, NATO and the US. There are clearly some parallels here that could lead not just to better understanding of those we may regard as our enemies in current conflicts, but to greater self-knowledge. Both types of knowledge are invaluable, and both need more attention, in my view, if we are to evolve as a species beyond the age of endless wars aimed at forced dominion over unwilling others.
I love the way you take us on your journey to find the viewing angle from which complex things can be better understood without oversimplification. After many years as a psychiatrist I’m still fascinated by the way we behave, but I’m increasingly aware that ‘getting from point A to point B’ is achieved by radically different internal steps by people who appear to be doing the same thing. This can’t be overlooked. Thanks once again, and good health to you 😘
@@VladVexler 4 hours in, it is clear this did not flop at all. Ok, two of all the views and three comments are from me, for technical reasons only one like. But thousands others agree. Please don’t pressure yourself!
@@abodabalo thank you soooo much! It has flopped - twice fewer views than my worst performing videos of the past few months. And 5x less than best performing ones. YT telling me that regulars are choosing not to watch this one. I believe in the video of course - but it’s not going in well. I think the title is terrible! But I can’t think of anything good right now! So appreciate your support!
@@VladVexler I liked it. I was watching you struggle to get this out and wondered about something. What if you started just doing your chats on this channel? I can understand the original purpose of splitting channels, but I doubt that most of your viewers would mind having two different formats in one channel. Then you wouldn't have to worry about having to put up the long form videos regularly and the algorithm or whatever wouldn't punish you. Being subscribed to both channels, I know I'd prefer one update in my subscription feed. I wouldn't worry too much about this one seeming like a flop. You've built up a loyal fan base. There really is very little out there doing the quality thinking and presenting that you're doing and many of us are always ready for more.
@@VladVexler (Moments ago: "Oh sh*t, I forgot to like!" Now: Corrected.) I liked this video particularly. I just read somewhere, that maybe throwing the not-too-well-prepared mobilized troops to the battlefield is just buying time. However it's not time until the more experienced and equipped units arrive, but time for preparing a WMD strike. I mean, it's still much less likely than not, but an interesting (and disturbing) theory.
Although not being of the faculty I am deeply impressed by your analysis. Your content should be made obligatory lecture for all Western leaders. Thank you so very very much!
I mean I would want my leader to state that there is no point in world existing without his people surviving in it. Shouldn't that be the core of anything called "defense policy". And I don't agree that you are a philosopher, at least I know for certainty that your analysis of ukraine war isn't philosophical but vulgar psychoanalysis of putin's "complete metaphysical worldview", to which you somehow have a direct access. I wonder what would be your psychoanalysis of minds of western leaders over the scam of iraq invasion? The way I see it, putin wants to make russia a hegemonic regional and global super power, a glory for russian nation. Well, I don't find it irrational at all. The only way to achieve it is to be successful at whatever putin is doing. And I wish that he is successful in his endeavors. A shift of some cultural/economic/military/political hegemony from west to rest of the world is the best thing for all the non-western cultures in the world. We don't want west to continue come marching into our lands in different forms, in the name of WMDs, threat to their intrests, LGBTQ+ rights, Democracy, secularism, progress and science etc. to shape us in their form. West barely constitutes 15% of worlds population but somehow has monopoly to represent human nature, values, culture and human future etc. India, china and in general the global south have had enough of being dominated by the west. Putin, russia and every country has right to seek hegemony and power over others in the same way as west had for last few centuries.
Yes, one of your best. A lot of work, so much appriciated! Each video and chat is an endorphin infusion leaving me much to mull over during the day. Thank you!
Thank you! Although if I start talking about meta-sicence, it might be time for me to take a break! Maybe I can talk metaphysics on the philosophy channel!
Hey Vlad. You're the best. Thanks for making such a complex video while fighting for your health. I never thought that I needed anyone to explain the 'why' and the 'how' and in-between, but you do a good job of making sense of such a complex situation.
Another fantastic piece of thought and analysis. More people deserves to get to listen to you. I believe you're an important and sober voice in a time where we are ironically, much thanks to internet, constantly bombarded with promises of doom, victory and quick fixes where what we most of all need is to stay mentally sober while vigilant at the same time. Quite an art form to master.
The first premise of the so-called "realist" school of thought in international affairs is that values never matter. In this video, Vexler exposes the deficiency of this premise.
“No value-free formula will do here, and only that will allow us to see the options before Putin as he sees them, and not as he would see them if he were us.” …So clear and simple and brilliantly spoken.
I am very glad to have found your channel, Vlad. I greatly appreciate your thoughtful perspective, both here and on your chat channel. Thank you for your efforts at providing a little sanity in a chaotic world.
Thank you so much for this content. You and me, we are children of roughly the same decade, in the early 1980s. I grew up in West Germany with the specter of the Warsaw pact and communism looming. And despite me only being in Kindergarden-age, I have early been raised into the fear of what lurked in the east. It is not only relieving to listen to such a eloquent philosopher of Russian origin, it is also showing that the spirit of the free Russian intelligentsia is still out there. I only wish for the Russian people to some day be able to unshackle themselves from the totalitarianism that has been holding this grand nation hostage for such a long time already. Keep the content coming, I will be watching. All the best from southern Bavaria!
Hello, Vlad, thanks for the video! Regarding school escalating propaganda, do you envision it spectacularly backfiring the same way as in the late soviet union, when it was openly mocked?
At the moment I am sceptical about the regime being able to fascisise young people over the next 5 years. The efforts of often lame. But they will be trying harder and harder.
@@VladVexler yes, but in the same time, it looks like a transition from postmodern pattern to more classical, modern and aggressive propaganda, which is a completely new territory. And the point is exactly that it seems statistically (from previous examples) these methods tend to be not only ineffective, but create direct backlash. And the MORE aggressive you go, the MORE angsty backlash it takes. You can argue even the recent Mahsa Amini revolution or PRC student protests as example of in part escalating propaganda backfiring spectacularly. Besides, does this regime in this form even have 5 years? Highly doubtful
@@VladVexler Russia is losing because Ukraine has a constant stream of ammunition and weapons .The Russian government can only win this war if they use atomic weapons to destroy the main supply ports, roads , bridges. That’s rational , because if they don’t do this the war will be lost and the Russian state will fail. Putin will eventually have to use this weapon IF they want the Russian state in its CURRENT form to continue
@@Lanedl1 Not necessarily. Russia can disconnect itself from the wider internet, at least for the public, much as China has. Yes, teens and young adults will notice this, and there ARE ways around it, much as some in China have done. And, word will get around.
Thank you Vlad for this thoughtful analysis. I keep reading and watching every bit of news on the matter of russia and the ukrainian conflict, I can find - even thou it probably doesn't help my mental health. Your insight are always deeply appreciated and so is the work you put into these videos. I hope you do and continue to feel better (of course not just because I want to see more videos like this). Best wishes from Germany
always a good thing to see that you've uploaded another video. Whether I agree with your position on this or that -it is important to me that I am challenged in my perspective and for that I thank you and hope your medical issues sort themselves out. Think clearly. Be well. Stay safe and carry on.
Have to deal with some serious chronic health issues myself. So I appreciate the extra effort you have put into making these excellent commentaries. All the best. 🙂
Wow! Quentin Robert DeNameland couldn't have analysed this better, Vlad. The need for sound work of a philostopher may never have been higher. Thanks for rising to the occasion and also for the moral judgement at the very end. Much appreciated!
People are talking about this behind the scenes - but virtually nobody has articulated this in public. The point about values and rationality in nuclear deterrence. But of course I am not saying we are in grave nuclear danger now. We are not.
@@VladVexler 👌. Again, I appreciate your measured approach to this because it's stressing me out. I've had to kind of back away from it to have some peace.
@@VladVexler I think a real red line. And you can see it's a red line because nobody talk about it. Is Crimea. The regime in Russia had build a narrative about the annexation and it can't be un-build. It's to much links to the regime
Twice, that I've seen reported, Soviet military officers with "the button" were warned by detection devices that nuclear missiles were "incoming". Both times they decided not to send Soviet nukes in return. They were right, the warnings were technical glitches. That comforts me a lot. Another comforting thought is that we've seen how badly Russians maintain older equipment in storage / on standby. Maybe Russian nukes, the missilses just won't operate.
@@veramae4098 And yet there's a difference between the largely orderly Soviet Union and the corrupt Russia. And also there's a difference between an automated signal which may or may not mean anything, and a signed direct order from up above, or the face of your leader speaking on government TV. So conclusions are... difficult. Perhaps if the nukes won't fire, Putin will cycle through commanders until it will. On the topic of a secret plan... we'll hear about it when it either succeeds or is thwarted by the siloviki won't we? And maybe not even then. Secret plans are best kept secret until the end. It's going to be difficult, they've got to be already suspecting everyone and everything capable of such a thing. The situation is tense.
I would like to say that it is an honour to watch your videos. Well spoken, well explained, well-thought-out. If only.. it was less scaring what you say. Anyway - thank you. All the best from Germany!
I love your videos on all your channels 🙂 You combine great knowledge and insight of Russia with a highly intellectual discussion and analysis. Perfect!
Vlad, your clarity of thought and nuanced arguments are inspiring. Regarding values, I agree this is central to many issues today. This recalls the philosophy of Jacque Fresco, who believed that values and environment shape our behaviour, and these therefore are also key to improving society. He also spoke about how one can fail to communicate with others who don't already share your values. You previously hinted at how you approach this -- e.g. not belittling other points of view and "allowing everyone on the train" towards a common goal regardless of their individual motivations. But what of people not on the train? Suppose you could speak to Putin or any of his supporters. What would you say to them? And would it even make a difference?
We may see things coming to a head sooner rather than later with regards to Crimea. The Russians abandoned Kherson without much of a fight because they couldn't supply the civilians and military forces there with the needed food, fuel and weapons/supplies. The same applies to all of Crimea, only now Russia has about 3 million civilians to provide for and a larger military force to take care of logistically. I wouldn't be shocked if the Russians were not forced to abandon Crimea as well, and this may be so unacceptable to Putin that he resorts to the overt nuclear threat mentioned by Vlad in his comments. If evacuating Kherson was difficult, imagine trying to pull out millions of civilians and thousands of troops from Crimea, with only one lane open across the bridge. If Putin drew criticism for abandoning Kherson, that was only "part of Russia" from an occupation standpoint for less than a year and from an actual annexation standpoint for only a few weeks, imagine the criticism that will come from abandoning Crimea. I do agree that we cannot give in to nuclear blackmail. Once that has been done once, it will happen again and again in the future. When Putin says that "A world without Russia is unimaginable", he really means that a world without Putin is unimaginable to himself, but that is not true of all Russians, including those with some power around him. My guess is that they are already thinking about a world without Putin, especially if some of the health rumors are true, and I would be shocked if many of them were willing to die by suicide, which a full nuclear exchange would be, simply because Putin was afraid of seeing a world without him in power.
Thanks for another deep dive into a subject of extreme significance. I'm no philosopher but I'm keenly interested in the thoughts of philosophers. It's important to realize our view of the world is not necessarily that of Putin. My mind is reeling from the exercise of adjusting to that thought.
Yes, rationality needs to be comprehended from the person who we're trying to understand. I have met, tried to understand their "world view" and figure out the values they hold. It's certainly not easy when dealing with fanatics, "every means will justify the end". It's a scary trip, mentally, to follow without being disturbed. Thank you Vlad. It's scary, it's alarming, but we need to use our own imagination. 💝
Vlad, I thank you for this video. I am a huge fan, particularly of the chat channel where I watch all of your work. I hope that any health issues that may have delayed this video have improved. My only variation on what you say is that while I completely agree we should assess Putin based on his values and not ours, we should assess him based on our best evidence of what his values actually are, not on what his outward statements, when taken at face value, imply they are. Yes, he projects a quasi-religious view of Russian destiny, and for him that view may be heartfelt to the extent that it is a possibly subconscious yet convenient justification for every act he has performed to expand and maintain his personal power, but statements like his in the video to the effect that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia was to collapse seem to me to be a calculated performance that copies three generations of the strategy of the Kim family of North Korea, where they consciously try to seem too crazy to be trifled with. Frankly, and I hate to admit this, I think I would say the same kind of things as Putin if I were in his shoes and wanted to intimidate the West, and I would probably deliver the message with the same smirk. For me, the best evidence (but not the only evidence) of Putin’s real values has been the ridiculously long tables he used for meeting his interlocutors during the pandemic, where I can see no propaganda benefit of that behavior that would advance his claim to be Russia’s savior, while he must know it looks absurd to outside observers. Thus I think the best explanation of this and other evidence about his personalllity is that Putin is a coward who definitely does not want to have himself, and perhaps also does no want to have his family, be obliterated by nuclear war. In fact, although what I am about to say will probably reflect badly on me, I think that associating Putin with suicide bombers insults the commitment to cause that actual suicide bombers have. So while I believe there is a danger of nuclear holocaust if the West either invades Russia or rains down conventional missiles on Moscow or Petersburg, there not much danger otherwise. Thus the current tragedy is that Moscow can destroy the Ukrainian power grid with impunity, leaving the people of Ukraine to freeze this winter, while it is (and I very reluctantly agree) too dangerous for the West to give Ukraine longer-range missiles that would bring down the Russian power grid tit-for-tat. In this sense I am a coward too. I look forward to your future videos.
'we should assess him based on our best evidence of what his values actually are, not on what his outward statements, when taken at face value, imply they are' - absolutely agree 'statements like his in the video to the effect that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia was to collapse seem to me to be a calculated performance ' - absolutely agree 'Putin is a coward who definitely does not want to have himself, and perhaps also does no want to have his family, be obliterated by nuclear war. In fact, although what I am about to say will probably reflect badly on me, I think that associating Putin with suicide bombers insults the commitment to cause that actual suicide bombers have.' - yes that's reasonable some of the way, how much of the way? hugely grateful for your time and eyes and ears Eric, thank you
Yeah especially since Khersons gone and now Crimea going too lol , the man is a thief nothing more and nothing less , we should give him no respect and we should be the ones threatening Russia with Nukes and moving our Nukes into Ukraine onto Russia's borders.
Thank you for your valuable and ongoing insights, Vlad. You are an incredibly talented orator and have such a deep understanding if concepts that the west do not focus on enough in Geopolitical terms.
Four videos into this rabit hole and I'm still enjoying the ride. Thank you so much for making these videos. I am an instant fan of your channel and plan to share your videos with everyone I know.
Thank you Vlad. Every time I listen to one of your presentations, I feel my brain expanding beyond the mundane functions of my day to day life. I'm trained as a computer scientist, and before that I was a soldier, and always someone who has tried to figure out how life and the universe works. I have learned through experience that many people look to oversimplified quantification to guide them in the automated analysis of people and complex problems. In both cases there may be things that cannot be measured that have value in relationship to the overall performance of a system/agent nonetheless, leading to poor decisions and outcomes (unintended consequences). I pray that the people making the decisions get it right, or close enough to avoid destruction beyond the current boundaries of the war.
I first came upon your channel in search of the very things you talk about - trying to understand Putin's values and rationale. I do think that one mistake Putin made was in the assumption that the West does count economics over values. As I always see elements of projection in people's actions, it does give me hope that economics does play a part if his own calculations. How do you assess this logic?
The west does hold economics over values... or rather, the real "values" in the west are not on the surface. These "values" are: PROFIT 📈 that must always flow into the pockets of the ultra-rich, piliticians, and mic/ds. Ultimately that is the *only* thing that is consistent and common under the vail of everything else, all the double standards, all the inconsistencies and sometimes even contradictory positions. "More money for the western (us) elites". Period. You can see how they even have no problem sacrificing economy of the entire european continent.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD No, simply because Europe is our "bitch". They do what our elites tell them to do. They have 0 sovereignty and self worth, and all Real decisions are made in Washington, despite what they try to make it look like on the surface. Unfortunatelly. Not because Europe isn't part of the "collective west", it is part of it, the colony part.
@@DrNauseous You don't understand our society at all and think that it is similar to yours (projection again), with a powerless population and kleptocrat leaders. Not so! We kick such leaders out of power because we have real elections and the people hold real power and we DO have values.
12:30 that's the nail on the head. Pieces like that of Snyder are for a large part meant to calm those who see nuclear risk as a reason to stay out of the Ukraine war. That and 'wishful thinking' as you mention at the end. Excellent analysis and vid!
@@archersfriend5900 We gotta admit to ourselves that this isn't some kind of war that's way out there just like Vietnam or the Middle East was and we're in the audience watching it.. No, were on the stage hiding behind the curtains
First video seen of you and I must say you are an incredible researcher and speaker. Every second of it was engaging and this is a very important topic. This entire illegal war and assault on sovereign Ukraine is something to think about. The brutality of it saddens me.
In a sense it doesn’t matter, what’s important is that we are rational actors in the situation and that, being stronger, our rationality can be brought to bear; Don’t escalate unnecessarily Don’t concede to threats (and state their will be punishment if threats are carried out) This sets the boundaries within which he can act while minimising the potential for reckless escalation - this would have to be by Putin, and that raises the possibility he couldn’t command others to carry it out.
I agree. We should be calm but resolute. We shouldn't goad him. Of course we recognise that we can't prevent him from initiating a nuclear strike but really there's no reason for him to. There is no existential threat to Russia. His is simply a limited war on the territory of another country that isn't going so well for him.
President Putin is a complicated man shrouded in secrecy. It's hard to figure out what's going on inside his head, so this was an interesting analysis.
This analysis of rationality is actually the most formal and mathematical way of approaching it. When vlad mentions values, what he is really talking about in mathematical sense is a utility function, and the fact that each agent has their own, unique utility function.
excellent presentation and argument... i believe you induced your audience to ponder the world outside of their box ... i think they might start to comprehend that the world is not just a vacation destiny promoted by western media and their "school" book ideals...
I support your channel and love listening to your lecture. It's poem like in its subtle reasoning, whose beauty I grasp at like at a butterfly, and it slips away, never totally in possession of it, but never tire of trying to comprehend it and possess it.
I think you are being too hard on the conventional western view of Putin being a rational actor, and more importantly think you have found the wrong flaw in it. The economic view of the question, as dictated by game theory, a concept you clearly alluded to but didn't name, allows for different players in the game, actors as you formulated it, to have different values and that the analysis can still come to correct conclusions on what the players will do. So the flaw in the conventional analysis you are highlighting isn't that "Putin has different values therefore your frame work is unworkable", but rather "your actual analysis of Putin assigns to him incorrect values and/or weights of those values, therefore you will get the wrong answer". To reiterate I don't think any of what you said is wrong, except that it occurs not on the basic level of assumptions you think it is on, rather a level above that where the West is incorrectly judging Putin's values. Another point of minor disagreement, I would argue you can get to the conclusion "Under no circumstances should we stop supporting Ukraine do to nuclear blackmail" from the only assumption of Putin's/Russia's value of "they want to win the war" using game theory. If we withdraw support due to nuclear blackmail then that means next time Putin wants to annex territory, or just do anything, the west opposes then he can push the nuclear threats to the same point that got the West to back down in Ukraine and either the West will back down again, or they will not. If they don't then by definition we are as close or closer to an actual nuclear war than we are now, since Putin created an analogous situation, so the payoff for backing down now is essentially nothing. This situation can repeat an arbitrary number of times until Putin has everything and the West nothing. Needless to say this is a bad outcome for the West. Thus to prevent the West from being slowly destroyed over fear at some point the West must stand up to nuclear blackmail. Following on from that, the sooner the West does not give in the lower the payoff for Putin will be, thus now is the time to say no to nuclear blackmail.
What makes this such a shell game, is the question, "How much does Putin _actually believe_ any of his _publicly stated_ political positions (as opposed to what he thinks he _should_ say to maintain his political base)?".
Vlad I'm really glad to view your analysis. You have a very careful way of breaking down these arguments, and that is so important because we can't really afford to get it wrong. Cheers!
an analogy of sorts. When I was young, I got bullied relentlessly every single day. For a long time I did nothing to provoke and anything to evade them. I still got beat up every day. One day I couldn`t take it anymore . I fought back. I lost hard, and got beat up again. But that was the last time I got beat up. My bullies knew there would be consequences from now on, consequences they did not like. So they found another easy victim, that cowered in fear like I did. don`t ever give in to that bastard in Moscow. If he senses weakness or fear, you are doomed as a nation.
4:20 Reminds me of how some people play Knights of the Old Republic; you do the dark side, sith things now, for more light points later. Of course, later never comes.
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Thanks for getting this video out. Love your work.
Putin has already passed the point of no return. The nuclear escalation therefore will be one of his next steps. In my opinion, the real reason for the last mobilisation in Russia was not to win the war with more soldiers, but to let young men die in the Ukraine war, identify and arrest those who oppose the war and drive the rest out of Russia. It would have been these young men who would have taken to the streets in any demonstrations to demand a change of system and overthrow Putin. We believe that Russia has ruined its future, but only if the world order does not change. If there is a global nuclear war that destroys our current livelihood with all its global interconnections, Russia would be better off because Russia is used to renunciation and deprivation and a dissatisfied population cannot topple the regime because of a lack of young men. This means that nuclear escalation is not an option for Putin, but a necessary measure.
I think another reason he might not use nukes is that he's simply having too much fun playing war general. It sounds like a joke but I think Putin actually enjoys the high stakes and map warfare.
I've been tracking events and looking at all kinds of information about this war since the beginning. I'm not an expert on Putin, but of course I too try to estimate what he would or wouldn't do and such things. I've also started following you channel, since come up with really relevant information and a much better understanding of Russia than I will even be able to get.
So, I too have thought about the things you've been sharing that Putin has said in the past and I've come to believe something else: Going back a lot of your video's, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe in the 20th century. Thinking about that more, I think Putin didn't mean it literally. The collapse of the Soviet Union is his personal greatest loss and he likes talking about it as if it was humanity's greatest loss as that view is to his convenience.
In much the same way I would interpret Putin's nuclear war views. I mean 'As marters, Russians would go to heaven' is actually Putin's way of saying 'I like to be able to use nuclear weapons as threats, so Russians should think of nukes like this and let me make the threats I want to make.'. Meanwhile explaining himself like this doesn't make it clear to the West that he doesn't really want to use nuclear weapons, he just wants credible threats. The rest of his explanations is just to further that agenda, nothing more to it. I personally don't think Putin's words ever should be taken literally, but of course I could be wrong, just sharing this information/view, maybe it's of some use to you. Thanks for your great work.
Dear Vlad, You got an IMPOSTER leaving comments on every thread 🧵 here. Or at least on many of the latest comments.
This is one of the only channels that truly delve into multidimensional thinking on the topic of Russia-Ukraine and does so in a multidisciplinary way.
Thank you!!
Something that is lacking in western politics at the moment unfortunately. It feels like some parts of Eastern Europe are proving to be better examples of this currently.
@@VladVexler My pleasure. Please keep doing your great analysis. Lots of love from South Africa.
@@petertromp8786 Love back!
@@edmurth Being at the cutting edge sharpens the mind of the Eastern European.
When he talks about a "world without Russia in it", I recall a line from the movie Der Untergang (The Downfall) where Magda Goebbels, as a justification for poisoning her six children, says she doesn't want them to live in a world without Hitler...
Yep. When I heard that line from Putin I was shocked. Yes up until that point he had been a jackass but that was the point I realised he had gone off the deep end.
@@ryanjonathanmartin3933 The hypocrisy of Putin's statement is absolutely absurd, he equates himself with Russia. The truth is that the last Romanovs probably thought the same, yet Russia is still there, and will be there, unless Russians take Putin's words for granted and destroy Russia by going down Putin's bath.
Is your problem that you cant read? Or perhaps you were just listening to Vlad, who within a minute completely misquotes Putin, despite the text being in front of his face...thereby revealing his appalling anti-Russian bias? "What good is the world FOR US (ie. the Russians) if it is a world without Russia?", is what Putin actually said and it is entirely different to Vlad's misrepresentation.
If we give in to nuclear blackmail, we'll wake up to a world in which nuclear blackmail is normal. So while it's interesting to ponder the question, I don't see any alternative but to simply ignore the threats entirely. Pragmatically, is better face down one risk today than an endless procession of them tomorrow.
It would almost be rational, in the face of Putin's version of rationality, for the West to become the nut banging his shoe on the UN lectern noting that the billion of us in the West would simply overrun and take all of Russia for our own rather than go through a nuclear exchange if Russia were to hit us to try to wipe us out; except that would be totally out of character for the West. But Unless Russia is going to nuke itself, the West simply taking Russia for itself subjugating it's comparatively small population (or treating them as Russians have treated others) as it's new home is the sort of the crazy answer to why his views on wiping everyone else out to enjoy being wiped out are futile. This does seem escalatory and character crushing though 😀
I'm with you
If we back P into a corner, humiliating him, making him lose "face", we're looking for trouble.
@@noapology88 Yet letting him get away with it can invite just as much trouble
Damn straight! Yet, the threats should not be ignored, but met with very precise counter threats. Or rather, clear cut information about what the consequences will be, if the Russkies proceeds with, whatever they are threatening to do next. Be it chemical, biological, or nuclear. Or something entirely different, like blowing up a dam. Or as it usually goes according to the Russian disinformation guide book.. "what their adversaries, will do next". So it needs not to be directly escalatory.. You just make sure the message is very precise and clear. And then you just stand firm. That's the only way to keep a psychopath/sociopath from escalating his ambitions anyways. Because that's the only language he/she understands. And Putin is a thoroughgoing example of this.
The level of nuclear risk is unknown, but we should all continue to fully support Ukraine unwaveringly and indefinitely.
"Victimized by their own expertise" is a world-class description the whole world needs to chew on these days. That's a gem of an idea, Vlad!
In my view "deluded by their own expertise" would be better
The other side of the Dunning-Kruger coin.
@@SlpBeauty333 The madness of the crowed is what concerns me the most these days, because most expert seem to be blind to this madness that is growing and spreading in an organic way, or they are too victimized by their expertise to deal with it in a collective interdisciplinary manner.
@@SlpBeauty333 Thank you. I remember way back in the 1990’s in a interview Barbara Walters asked Trump if he was considering running for a president. My thought was “why is she asking this idiot if he’s going to run for a president!”. Then I guess people kept asking him that. No wonder he though he could be a president and other people thought so too. I’ve never liked him. Sorry for your misfortune to know these people.
@@SlpBeauty333 It’s interesting what you have to say. But will Trump and his family get off unscathed? I saw and interesting interview by Jon Stewart with Jeoffrey Berman, the former attorney at the Souther New York District and Jon repeatedly asked him the question why The Wealthy seem to get away with crimes they commit, while everyone around them don’t seem to have those privileges and end up in prison. Jeoffrey Berman, who seems to be a person of integrity, dodged this question, like he was under a gag order or something like that. Maybe you know something about the famous Southern NY District that the rest of us don’t know. After all, it is famous for finding criminals guilty of all kinds crimes, like corruption and racketeering. But some people that seem to be on the top of these pyramids like Trump & family seem to be immune to the legal system. Why is that? Do you know anything about how this works in New York?
I've said for months now, that we cannot predict Putin's actions by thinking what would be the logical thing for a Western leader to do in his position, because clearly he has been repeatedly doing thing that Western leaders have been considering illogical. We must think what the enemy thinks, not what we would think if we were the enemy. I also fully agree about the multi-disciplinary view: it is not only about military, but also about psychology, culture, philosophy, history, economy, ... I hope your voice will be heard by those Wester leaders who make important calls on the decisions related to the war.
Yes. I have read a few books now and a consistent theme is that US leaders tend to think that Putin thinks 'like us' -when he does not.
There's only one discipline required, Putinology. The billionaire he put in prison says the only thing Putin understands is force.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican well yea, there's also a Finnish expert Martti J Kari who has said about this years before war (you can see one of his lectures here: ruclips.net/video/kF9KretXqJw/видео.html - you can enable English subtitles there, unfortunately I don't think he has done any content speaking English). But what is putinology? Why is it the way it is? Why the whole regime works the way it does, and what is the role of the russian citizens? For getting answers to those questions, that is where I think more disciplines are required. Even though yes, the distilled answer pretty much is force.
If this were a Chess game, both players would be playing chess. Matching against Putin the possibility that he will set the house on fire just to get back at you for taking both his knights is very real.
@@MrApolkov he would also say that it's your fault and he just had to do it as a preventative measure. And then he would go crying to the arbiter how the opponent touched the board at a wrong time so he must be declared the winner.
I lived in Berlin, also visited Moscow and have had some exposure to Russian media (past and present). There seemed to be a visible difference between war memorials in the west and Russia. The people lost during wars were remembered for their sacrifices. In Russia it seemed there was a slant towards the glory of Russia through those people. A celebration of how mighty Russia is, how much. Celebration of suffering. Very weird
Madman Theory: the only effective nuclear actors are those mad enough to make a credible suicidal threat.
Glad to see you are feeling better, and happy to see your latest works so valuable to all of us trying to unravel all the madness inside Russia. Thank you!
Thank you so much!
Second that. This channel is an Oasis of Intelligence that has helped me massively.
It really is. I remember just a week before the war, I was thinking that it might happen, but I still doubted it - becaus it would be such an irrational thing to do even in the self-interest of Russia. Then that speech immediately before the war came out and it dawned on me that, yes, Russia will really invade, and my position as a casual observer had completely misjudged the motivations at hand. Like so many in the western sphere, I used to think of Putin as a cold, ruthless, self-centered rational demagogue, when that was only maybe half the story. This channel more than any other has helped with creating an understanding of Putin and Russia as a political power that finally goes beyond the vey casual and incomplete take I and many in the west have had before. So, yes, than you for your work, it is appreciated and helps a lot of people tring to genuinely understand what is happening right now in geopolitics where it concerns Russia.
mean I would want my leader to state that there is no point in world existing without his people surviving in it. Shouldn't that be the core of anything called "defense policy".
And I don't agree that you are a philosopher, at least I know for certainty that your analysis of ukraine war isn't philosophical but vulgar psychoanalysis of putin's "complete metaphysical worldview", to which you somehow have a direct access.
I wonder what would be your psychoanalysis of minds of western leaders over the scam of iraq invasion?
The way I see it, putin wants to make russia a hegemonic regional and global super power, a glory for russian nation. Well, I don't find it irrational at all. The only way to achieve it is to be successful at whatever putin is doing. And I wish that he is successful in his endeavors. A shift of some cultural/economic/military/political hegemony from west to rest of the world is the best thing for all the non-western cultures in the world.
We don't want west to continue come marching into our lands in different forms in the name of WMDs, LGBTQ+ rights, Democracy, secularism, progress and science etc. to shape us in their form.
West barely constitutes 15% of worlds population but somehow have monopoly to represent human nature, values, culture and human future etc.
India, china and in general the global south have had enough of being dominated by the west.
Putin, russia and every country has right to seek hegemony and power over others in the same way as west had far last few centuries.
@@saimbhat6243 Are you just copy/pasting this same comment under every OP?
You make some valid points, and I like the idea of doing a comparative analysis of say, the US and its allies' psychology regarding the Iraq war with its imaginary WMDs, and Mr Putin's reactions to imaginary threats from Ukraine, NATO and the US.
There are clearly some parallels here that could lead not just to better understanding of those we may regard as our enemies in current conflicts, but to greater self-knowledge. Both types of knowledge are invaluable, and both need more attention, in my view, if we are to evolve as a species beyond the age of endless wars aimed at forced dominion over unwilling others.
there is 1 single rule of blackmailing. It never stops if you accept it
I love your style of editing! I love all the little touches, and more importantly that you don't over-do it.
The editing style is: I haven't finished the editing!
@@VladVexler Haven't finished, haven't overdone it. Looks fine to me. Perfect balance.
This isn't all that new to regulars of the channel, but oh boy is this a concise essay. Thank you, Vlad! I will be sharing this a lot.
So glad you liked, and so glad it's not new - means I am managing to get understood!
I love the way you take us on your journey to find the viewing angle from which complex things can be better understood without oversimplification. After many years as a psychiatrist I’m still fascinated by the way we behave, but I’m increasingly aware that ‘getting from point A to point B’ is achieved by radically different internal steps by people who appear to be doing the same thing. This can’t be overlooked. Thanks once again, and good health to you 😘
Wonderful words.
Great to see that your channel has reached this magnitude! Please keep going Vlad, such great content.
Thank you - this one may flop as I haven't uploaded for so long! Appreciate you.
@@VladVexler 4 hours in, it is clear this did not flop at all. Ok, two of all the views and three comments are from me, for technical reasons only one like. But thousands others agree. Please don’t pressure yourself!
@@abodabalo thank you soooo much! It has flopped - twice fewer views than my worst performing videos of the past few months. And 5x less than best performing ones. YT telling me that regulars are choosing not to watch this one. I believe in the video of course - but it’s not going in well. I think the title is terrible! But I can’t think of anything good right now! So appreciate your support!
@@VladVexler I liked it. I was watching you struggle to get this out and wondered about something. What if you started just doing your chats on this channel? I can understand the original purpose of splitting channels, but I doubt that most of your viewers would mind having two different formats in one channel. Then you wouldn't have to worry about having to put up the long form videos regularly and the algorithm or whatever wouldn't punish you. Being subscribed to both channels, I know I'd prefer one update in my subscription feed. I wouldn't worry too much about this one seeming like a flop. You've built up a loyal fan base. There really is very little out there doing the quality thinking and presenting that you're doing and many of us are always ready for more.
@@VladVexler (Moments ago: "Oh sh*t, I forgot to like!" Now: Corrected.)
I liked this video particularly. I just read somewhere, that maybe throwing the not-too-well-prepared mobilized troops to the battlefield is just buying time. However it's not time until the more experienced and equipped units arrive, but time for preparing a WMD strike. I mean, it's still much less likely than not, but an interesting (and disturbing) theory.
Although not being of the faculty I am deeply impressed by your analysis. Your content should be made obligatory lecture for all Western leaders.
Thank you so very very much!
Too kind!
I mean I would want my leader to state that there is no point in world existing without his people surviving in it. Shouldn't that be the core of anything called "defense policy".
And I don't agree that you are a philosopher, at least I know for certainty that your analysis of ukraine war isn't philosophical but vulgar psychoanalysis of putin's "complete metaphysical worldview", to which you somehow have a direct access.
I wonder what would be your psychoanalysis of minds of western leaders over the scam of iraq invasion?
The way I see it, putin wants to make russia a hegemonic regional and global super power, a glory for russian nation. Well, I don't find it irrational at all. The only way to achieve it is to be successful at whatever putin is doing. And I wish that he is successful in his endeavors. A shift of some cultural/economic/military/political hegemony from west to rest of the world is the best thing for all the non-western cultures in the world.
We don't want west to continue come marching into our lands in different forms, in the name of WMDs, threat to their intrests, LGBTQ+ rights, Democracy, secularism, progress and science etc. to shape us in their form.
West barely constitutes 15% of worlds population but somehow has monopoly to represent human nature, values, culture and human future etc.
India, china and in general the global south have had enough of being dominated by the west.
Putin, russia and every country has right to seek hegemony and power over others in the same way as west had for last few centuries.
Yes, one of your best. A lot of work, so much appriciated! Each video and chat is an endorphin infusion leaving me much to mull over during the day. Thank you!
Thank you so much!
Thank you so much for all your work and effort Vlad, you are wonderful!!
Thank you so much!
One of the very few places where one can see philosophy, metascience, in action. Thank you, Mr. Vexler.
Thank you! Although if I start talking about meta-sicence, it might be time for me to take a break! Maybe I can talk metaphysics on the philosophy channel!
If he's not a rational nuclear actor, than we're all in serious trouble.
Nukes for everyone
He is a rational actor, but we need to include values in our idea of rationality.
It takes more than one Psychopath to launch Nuclear weapons (thankfully)
He’s more like an irrational nuclear reactor.
@@VladVexler That is a good point, and certainly one area the West had seriously neglected in their calculations.
Hey Vlad. You're the best. Thanks for making such a complex video while fighting for your health. I never thought that I needed anyone to explain the 'why' and the 'how' and in-between, but you do a good job of making sense of such a complex situation.
Thank you so much!
I really like it when Vlad sets off the lightbulb in my head by introducing an idea, or chain of thought I haven't been exposed to.
I'm glad!
Great video Vlad. Worth the wait !
Thank you.
Putin has overplayed his bluffs.
Vlad, thank you. You are very lucid and help crystallise thoughts that are swirling inchoate in my head. Excellent sound as well
I too feel that we are blessed to have VV as part of YT content creators. A truly unique voice. Thank you for your work, Vlad!
Excellent analysis again! Thank you very much for your insights! All the best from Finland! 👍😎
Another fantastic piece of thought and analysis. More people deserves to get to listen to you. I believe you're an important and sober voice in a time where we are ironically, much thanks to internet, constantly bombarded with promises of doom, victory and quick fixes where what we most of all need is to stay mentally sober while vigilant at the same time. Quite an art form to master.
Thank you so so much!!
well said! this guy is amazing
@@sab5686 thank you!!!!!!
The first premise of the so-called "realist" school of thought in international affairs is that values never matter. In this video, Vexler exposes the deficiency of this premise.
Or tries to!
This might be your best video so far! Very insightful 👏
So kind! This one is much less popular in the community, but I wanted to get this message out.
Nice to see you pal, hope you are doing well ✌️❤️🙏
“No value-free formula will do here, and only that will allow us to see the options before Putin as he sees them, and not as he would see them if he were us.” …So clear and simple and brilliantly spoken.
I am very glad to have found your channel, Vlad. I greatly appreciate your thoughtful perspective, both here and on your chat channel. Thank you for your efforts at providing a little sanity in a chaotic world.
Thank you so much for finding the channels!
Thank you so much for this content. You and me, we are children of roughly the same decade, in the early 1980s. I grew up in West Germany with the specter of the Warsaw pact and communism looming. And despite me only being in Kindergarden-age, I have early been raised into the fear of what lurked in the east. It is not only relieving to listen to such a eloquent philosopher of Russian origin, it is also showing that the spirit of the free Russian intelligentsia is still out there. I only wish for the Russian people to some day be able to unshackle themselves from the totalitarianism that has been holding this grand nation hostage for such a long time already. Keep the content coming, I will be watching. All the best from southern Bavaria!
@Vlad this one was worth the waiting
Thank you Vlad, very interesting
exciting!! just started watching it!!
I was incredibly impressed by this. Thank you Vlad and I hope that you are feeling better, you certainly exude vitality in the video.
Thank you so much!
An Awesome analysis nobody else can give but you!
Hello, Vlad, thanks for the video!
Regarding school escalating propaganda, do you envision it spectacularly backfiring the same way as in the late soviet union, when it was openly mocked?
At the moment I am sceptical about the regime being able to fascisise young people over the next 5 years. The efforts of often lame. But they will be trying harder and harder.
@@VladVexler yes, but in the same time, it looks like a transition from postmodern pattern to more classical, modern and aggressive propaganda, which is a completely new territory. And the point is exactly that it seems statistically (from previous examples) these methods tend to be not only ineffective, but create direct backlash. And the MORE aggressive you go, the MORE angsty backlash it takes. You can argue even the recent Mahsa Amini revolution or PRC student protests as example of in part escalating propaganda backfiring spectacularly. Besides, does this regime in this form even have 5 years? Highly doubtful
@@VladVexler Russia is losing because Ukraine has a constant stream of ammunition and weapons .The Russian government can only win this war if they use atomic weapons to destroy the main supply ports, roads , bridges. That’s rational , because if they don’t do this the war will be lost and the Russian state will fail. Putin will eventually have to use this weapon IF they want the Russian state in its CURRENT form to continue
@@Lanedl1 Not necessarily. Russia can disconnect itself from the wider internet, at least for the public, much as China has. Yes, teens and young adults will notice this, and there ARE ways around it, much as some in China have done. And, word will get around.
Thank you for the video, we're so grateful for your insight despite your own health taking a toll on you. Thank you again.x
Thank you Vlad for this thoughtful analysis. I keep reading and watching every bit of news on the matter of russia and the ukrainian conflict, I can find - even thou it probably doesn't help my mental health. Your insight are always deeply appreciated and so is the work you put into these videos.
I hope you do and continue to feel better (of course not just because I want to see more videos like this).
Best wishes from Germany
Vlad does not require good wishes from germany, thanks.
Thank you so so much Noah!!!
@@faizanrana2998 what?
you were right, Vlad. this was your best yet
always a good thing to see that you've uploaded another video. Whether I agree with your position on this or that -it is important to me that I am challenged in my perspective and for that I thank you and hope your medical issues sort themselves out. Think clearly. Be well. Stay safe and carry on.
Congratulations Vlad! You’ve made it!
Have to deal with some serious chronic health issues myself. So I appreciate the extra effort you have put into making these excellent commentaries.
All the best. 🙂
Healthful wishes to your body.
Wow! One of your bests! Many thanks, and keep up!
Its kinda scary that he could be in poor health. Imagine a man with nothing to lose ready to start a nuclear war and take everyone with him
That's also my fear...
Wow! Quentin Robert DeNameland couldn't have analysed this better, Vlad. The need for sound work of a philostopher may never have been higher.
Thanks for rising to the occasion and also for the moral judgement at the very end. Much appreciated!
I really, really, really hope somebody that can actually do something about this secretly has a plan that they aren't telling anybody about.
People are talking about this behind the scenes - but virtually nobody has articulated this in public. The point about values and rationality in nuclear deterrence. But of course I am not saying we are in grave nuclear danger now. We are not.
@@VladVexler 👌. Again, I appreciate your measured approach to this because it's stressing me out. I've had to kind of back away from it to have some peace.
@@VladVexler I think a real red line. And you can see it's a red line because nobody talk about it. Is Crimea.
The regime in Russia had build a narrative about the annexation and it can't be un-build. It's to much links to the regime
Twice, that I've seen reported, Soviet military officers with "the button" were warned by detection devices that nuclear missiles were "incoming".
Both times they decided not to send Soviet nukes in return. They were right, the warnings were technical glitches.
That comforts me a lot.
Another comforting thought is that we've seen how badly Russians maintain older equipment in storage / on standby. Maybe Russian nukes, the missilses just won't operate.
@@veramae4098 And yet there's a difference between the largely orderly Soviet Union and the corrupt Russia. And also there's a difference between an automated signal which may or may not mean anything, and a signed direct order from up above, or the face of your leader speaking on government TV. So conclusions are... difficult. Perhaps if the nukes won't fire, Putin will cycle through commanders until it will.
On the topic of a secret plan... we'll hear about it when it either succeeds or is thwarted by the siloviki won't we? And maybe not even then. Secret plans are best kept secret until the end. It's going to be difficult, they've got to be already suspecting everyone and everything capable of such a thing. The situation is tense.
Excellent ! I will save and rewatch until your wise words are committed to memory. Thank you.
I would like to say that it is an honour to watch your videos. Well spoken, well explained, well-thought-out. If only.. it was less scaring what you say. Anyway - thank you. All the best from Germany!
Well done. Thumbs up, both of them. Thanks Vlad.
I love your videos on all your channels 🙂
You combine great knowledge and insight of Russia with a highly intellectual discussion and analysis.
Perfect!
So glad I bring you value!
Wow, Vlad!!! What a presentation!!! Can you possibly be sick with this kind of energy!!!
Ha ha the last shot which I removed was me wanting to fall off the chair.
Vlad, your clarity of thought and nuanced arguments are inspiring. Regarding values, I agree this is central to many issues today. This recalls the philosophy of Jacque Fresco, who believed that values and environment shape our behaviour, and these therefore are also key to improving society. He also spoke about how one can fail to communicate with others who don't already share your values.
You previously hinted at how you approach this -- e.g. not belittling other points of view and "allowing everyone on the train" towards a common goal regardless of their individual motivations.
But what of people not on the train? Suppose you could speak to Putin or any of his supporters. What would you say to them? And would it even make a difference?
Superb video. Thank you
We may see things coming to a head sooner rather than later with regards to Crimea. The Russians abandoned Kherson without much of a fight because they couldn't supply the civilians and military forces there with the needed food, fuel and weapons/supplies. The same applies to all of Crimea, only now Russia has about 3 million civilians to provide for and a larger military force to take care of logistically. I wouldn't be shocked if the Russians were not forced to abandon Crimea as well, and this may be so unacceptable to Putin that he resorts to the overt nuclear threat mentioned by Vlad in his comments.
If evacuating Kherson was difficult, imagine trying to pull out millions of civilians and thousands of troops from Crimea, with only one lane open across the bridge. If Putin drew criticism for abandoning Kherson, that was only "part of Russia" from an occupation standpoint for less than a year and from an actual annexation standpoint for only a few weeks, imagine the criticism that will come from abandoning Crimea.
I do agree that we cannot give in to nuclear blackmail. Once that has been done once, it will happen again and again in the future. When Putin says that "A world without Russia is unimaginable", he really means that a world without Putin is unimaginable to himself, but that is not true of all Russians, including those with some power around him. My guess is that they are already thinking about a world without Putin, especially if some of the health rumors are true, and I would be shocked if many of them were willing to die by suicide, which a full nuclear exchange would be, simply because Putin was afraid of seeing a world without him in power.
I very much enjoy the content of your channell. Keep it rolling, Mr.Vexler!
Thanks for another deep dive into a subject of extreme significance. I'm no philosopher but I'm keenly interested in the thoughts of philosophers. It's important to realize our view of the world is not necessarily that of Putin. My mind is reeling from the exercise of adjusting to that thought.
Great Dr. Vexler!!
Yes, rationality needs to be comprehended from the person who we're trying to understand. I have met, tried to understand their "world view" and figure out the values they hold. It's certainly not easy when dealing with fanatics, "every means will justify the end". It's a scary trip, mentally, to follow without being disturbed.
Thank you Vlad. It's scary, it's alarming, but we need to use our own imagination. 💝
The "ends" do not justify the "means" for this simple reason:
the means create the ends.
It's rare that I agree with 100% of what is said in a YT video, except for Vlad's videos.
Great content. 👍
Vlad,
I thank you for this video. I am a huge fan, particularly of the chat channel where I watch all of your work. I hope that any health issues that may have delayed this video have improved.
My only variation on what you say is that while I completely agree we should assess Putin based on his values and not ours, we should assess him based on our best evidence of what his values actually are, not on what his outward statements, when taken at face value, imply they are. Yes, he projects a quasi-religious view of Russian destiny, and for him that view may be heartfelt to the extent that it is a possibly subconscious yet convenient justification for every act he has performed to expand and maintain his personal power, but statements like his in the video to the effect that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia was to collapse seem to me to be a calculated performance that copies three generations of the strategy of the Kim family of North Korea, where they consciously try to seem too crazy to be trifled with. Frankly, and I hate to admit this, I think I would say the same kind of things as Putin if I were in his shoes and wanted to intimidate the West, and I would probably deliver the message with the same smirk.
For me, the best evidence (but not the only evidence) of Putin’s real values has been the ridiculously long tables he used for meeting his interlocutors during the pandemic, where I can see no propaganda benefit of that behavior that would advance his claim to be Russia’s savior, while he must know it looks absurd to outside observers. Thus I think the best explanation of this and other evidence about his personalllity is that Putin is a coward who definitely does not want to have himself, and perhaps also does no want to have his family, be obliterated by nuclear war. In fact, although what I am about to say will probably reflect badly on me, I think that associating Putin with suicide bombers insults the commitment to cause that actual suicide bombers have.
So while I believe there is a danger of nuclear holocaust if the West either invades Russia or rains down conventional missiles on Moscow or Petersburg, there not much danger otherwise. Thus the current tragedy is that Moscow can destroy the Ukrainian power grid with impunity, leaving the people of Ukraine to freeze this winter, while it is (and I very reluctantly agree) too dangerous for the West to give Ukraine longer-range missiles that would bring down the Russian power grid tit-for-tat. In this sense I am a coward too.
I look forward to your future videos.
'we should assess him based on our best evidence of what his values actually are, not on what his outward statements, when taken at face value, imply they are' - absolutely agree
'statements like his in the video to the effect that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia was to collapse seem to me to be a calculated performance ' - absolutely agree
'Putin is a coward who definitely does not want to have himself, and perhaps also does no want to have his family, be obliterated by nuclear war. In fact, although what I am about to say will probably reflect badly on me, I think that associating Putin with suicide bombers insults the commitment to cause that actual suicide bombers have.' - yes that's reasonable some of the way, how much of the way?
hugely grateful for your time and eyes and ears Eric, thank you
@@VladVexler Good point
Awesome presentation
Well said as always! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 Glory to the heroes.
Brilliant. Keep taking down these progressive illusions....about implicitly shared values! Much appreciated, Very valuable clarification. Vlad!
If he were going to use a nuclear weapon. He would have done it by now. His bluff has been called, and he has a hand full of nothing.
Yeah especially since Khersons gone and now Crimea going too lol , the man is a thief nothing more and nothing less , we should give him no respect and we should be the ones threatening Russia with Nukes and moving our Nukes into Ukraine onto Russia's borders.
Well done and worth waiting for.
Thank you for your valuable and ongoing insights, Vlad. You are an incredibly talented orator and have such a deep understanding if concepts that the west do not focus on enough in Geopolitical terms.
Thank you!! Very grateful.
Four videos into this rabit hole and I'm still enjoying the ride. Thank you so much for making these videos. I am an instant fan of your channel and plan to share your videos with everyone I know.
Thank you Vlad. Every time I listen to one of your presentations, I feel my brain expanding beyond the mundane functions of my day to day life. I'm trained as a computer scientist, and before that I was a soldier, and always someone who has tried to figure out how life and the universe works. I have learned through experience that many people look to oversimplified quantification to guide them in the automated analysis of people and complex problems. In both cases there may be things that cannot be measured that have value in relationship to the overall performance of a system/agent nonetheless, leading to poor decisions and outcomes (unintended consequences). I pray that the people making the decisions get it right, or close enough to avoid destruction beyond the current boundaries of the war.
Lots of love
I first came upon your channel in search of the very things you talk about - trying to understand Putin's values and rationale. I do think that one mistake Putin made was in the assumption that the West does count economics over values. As I always see elements of projection in people's actions, it does give me hope that economics does play a part if his own calculations. How do you assess this logic?
The west does hold economics over values... or rather, the real "values" in the west are not on the surface. These "values" are: PROFIT 📈 that must always flow into the pockets of the ultra-rich, piliticians, and mic/ds. Ultimately that is the *only* thing that is consistent and common under the vail of everything else, all the double standards, all the inconsistencies and sometimes even contradictory positions. "More money for the western (us) elites". Period. You can see how they even have no problem sacrificing economy of the entire european continent.
@@DrNauseous Funny how you went from "the West" to the US because you realized Europe is also considered Western.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD No, simply because Europe is our "bitch". They do what our elites tell them to do. They have 0 sovereignty and self worth, and all Real decisions are made in Washington, despite what they try to make it look like on the surface. Unfortunatelly.
Not because Europe isn't part of the "collective west", it is part of it, the colony part.
@@DrNauseous You don't understand our society at all and think that it is similar to yours (projection again), with a powerless population and kleptocrat leaders. Not so! We kick such leaders out of power because we have real elections and the people hold real power and we DO have values.
@@DrNauseous Cope. You said West and then walked it back. If the West puts profits above everything, then Europe would put profits over the US.
12:30 that's the nail on the head. Pieces like that of Snyder are for a large part meant to calm those who see nuclear risk as a reason to stay out of the Ukraine war. That and 'wishful thinking' as you mention at the end. Excellent analysis and vid!
As an American, I really don't want to think too deeply on this topic. It scares the living $%&/ out of me. Slava Ukraine.
Just because you live across the pond doesn't mean that it won't come knocking on your doorstep.. Myb sooner to yours than the one closer to Russia
@@richard_from_england333 I completely agree.
@@archersfriend5900 We gotta admit to ourselves that this isn't some kind of war that's way out there just like Vietnam or the Middle East was and we're in the audience watching it.. No, were on the stage hiding behind the curtains
@@richard_from_england333 I totally agree, send the Ukrainians everything they need, while strengthening defense.
First video seen of you and I must say you are an incredible researcher and speaker. Every second of it was engaging and this is a very important topic.
This entire illegal war and assault on sovereign Ukraine is something to think about. The brutality of it saddens me.
“You need yoga (da!), you need a shower (da!). You need to learn how to handle real power!” Mikhail Gorbachev
Absolutely brilliant !!!!!
In a sense it doesn’t matter, what’s important is that we are rational actors in the situation and that, being stronger, our rationality can be brought to bear;
Don’t escalate unnecessarily
Don’t concede to threats (and state their will be punishment if threats are carried out)
This sets the boundaries within which he can act while minimising the potential for reckless escalation - this would have to be by Putin, and that raises the possibility he couldn’t command others to carry it out.
I agree. We should be calm but resolute. We shouldn't goad him. Of course we recognise that we can't prevent him from initiating a nuclear strike but really there's no reason for him to. There is no existential threat to Russia. His is simply a limited war on the territory of another country that isn't going so well for him.
I absolutely love your videos, your school of thought, excellent video...
Thank you so much!
President Putin is a complicated man shrouded in secrecy. It's hard to figure out what's going on inside his head, so this was an interesting analysis.
This analysis of rationality is actually the most formal and mathematical way of approaching it. When vlad mentions values, what he is really talking about in mathematical sense is a utility function, and the fact that each agent has their own, unique utility function.
excellent presentation and argument... i believe you induced your audience to ponder the world outside of their box ... i think they might start to comprehend that the world is not just a vacation destiny promoted by western media and their "school" book ideals...
I support your channel and love listening to your lecture. It's poem like in its subtle reasoning, whose beauty I grasp at like at a butterfly, and it slips away, never totally in possession of it, but never tire of trying to comprehend it and possess it.
Thank you so much!!
I think you are being too hard on the conventional western view of Putin being a rational actor, and more importantly think you have found the wrong flaw in it. The economic view of the question, as dictated by game theory, a concept you clearly alluded to but didn't name, allows for different players in the game, actors as you formulated it, to have different values and that the analysis can still come to correct conclusions on what the players will do. So the flaw in the conventional analysis you are highlighting isn't that "Putin has different values therefore your frame work is unworkable", but rather "your actual analysis of Putin assigns to him incorrect values and/or weights of those values, therefore you will get the wrong answer".
To reiterate I don't think any of what you said is wrong, except that it occurs not on the basic level of assumptions you think it is on, rather a level above that where the West is incorrectly judging Putin's values.
Another point of minor disagreement, I would argue you can get to the conclusion "Under no circumstances should we stop supporting Ukraine do to nuclear blackmail" from the only assumption of Putin's/Russia's value of "they want to win the war" using game theory. If we withdraw support due to nuclear blackmail then that means next time Putin wants to annex territory, or just do anything, the west opposes then he can push the nuclear threats to the same point that got the West to back down in Ukraine and either the West will back down again, or they will not. If they don't then by definition we are as close or closer to an actual nuclear war than we are now, since Putin created an analogous situation, so the payoff for backing down now is essentially nothing. This situation can repeat an arbitrary number of times until Putin has everything and the West nothing. Needless to say this is a bad outcome for the West. Thus to prevent the West from being slowly destroyed over fear at some point the West must stand up to nuclear blackmail. Following on from that, the sooner the West does not give in the lower the payoff for Putin will be, thus now is the time to say no to nuclear blackmail.
Fantastic video, more than worth the wait.
First!
Do I know you? You have a similar Pfp to a friend.
@@AroAceGamer chances are yeah. 🤣
Rewatched this. One of the best you've done since I began watching.☕
tyvm, dear Vlad. was waiting for your thoughts about Tim and not disappointed. It would be a very interesting discussion between you two to listen to.
Second,hello Vlad
Greetings from Germany to the United Kingdom
What makes this such a shell game, is the question, "How much does Putin _actually believe_ any of his _publicly stated_ political positions (as opposed to what he thinks he _should_ say to maintain his political base)?".
Vlad I'm really glad to view your analysis. You have a very careful way of breaking down these arguments, and that is so important because we can't really afford to get it wrong. Cheers!
bless you Mr Vexler,
you do anything but vex me
superb hard-hitting video
clarity+
an analogy of sorts.
When I was young, I got bullied relentlessly every single day. For a long time I did nothing to provoke and anything to evade them. I still got beat up every day. One day I couldn`t take it anymore . I fought back. I lost hard, and got beat up again. But that was the last time I got beat up. My bullies knew there would be consequences from now on, consequences they did not like. So they found another easy victim, that cowered in fear like I did.
don`t ever give in to that bastard in Moscow. If he senses weakness or fear, you are doomed as a nation.
Lots of love mr Vlad!
Amazing video! Thank you Vlad
4:20 Reminds me of how some people play Knights of the Old Republic; you do the dark side, sith things now, for more light points later. Of course, later never comes.
Bravo! Excellent work, Vexler!
Thank you!
Excellent vid! Worth the wait -much to ponder