One rule/tip I heard on player prop betting which has helped me not getting fkd when taking overs is NEVER taken a player prop over when the odds makers predict it's gonna be a blowout ( 10+ points in nba /nfl ) bcuz most player prop bets are on overs on "stars/starters & if vegas is right & its a blowout its a good % the star gets benched early thus less volume & of course I only stick to 2 , maybe 3 but rarely , leg parlys - just straight bets @ the same amount - also anyone know a free site that is comparable to odds jam? Great video & it's much appreciated
Exactly how im approaching my Oddsjam Trial to attack California Books, so This helped a ton since i just bought the fantasy optimizer in addition to my Gold memebership. Thanks Billy, lets run it up this winter!
Love the content my man! Do you think it would be wiser to bet your prize picks plays individually? If you can consistently make a profit on prize picks, I think you could get a great return betting 0.5u on each leg straight up
update: Michkov didnt get a point lol honestly no disrespect but id rather just do my own research and pick my own plays also Oddsjam is nowhere near affordable for the average sports bettor
i’m not following why you’re stating, be conservative with player prob bet sizes, i want 70-75% of the money on main line market bets, versus 25-30% on player props, but then in your examples you wagered far more on the player prop than the main market. in fact, your main market wager was similar in size to your 2 leg parlay.
Hey there Luke. To answer your question, my wager size is dependent on the edge we're receiving in the market. In the James Madison ML example the edge was only 1.25% so the wager size was smaller compared to the edge for the player prop. That's why I wagered more on Michkov.
@ i understand that, but you said you do 70-75% main market wagers. you also said there are many more props with an edge than main markets, and with higher edges usually at that. so i’m wondering how you do 75% of your action on main markets if this is the case? just via volume? thanks for the reply.
ROI in sports betting IS NOT the same as ROI in the stock market. The latter is a yearly return. Sports Betting ROI is daily compound. In sports betting you're "investing" everyday, and so the profits are compounded. As an example, if you started the year with a bankroll of $500 and you bet $100 every single day, you would end up gambling $36,500 over the course of the year. A 3% ROI in that case would give you a profit of $1,095. An 8% ROI for that $500 in the S&P 500 would be $40.
this might sound insane to many especially if they see the videos where your hit rate shows your profit but i got serious about a month ago with sports betting and im on a heater, talking 68% success on player props im up 100 unites this month EDIT: UNITS not UNITES
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One rule/tip I heard on player prop betting which has helped me not getting fkd when taking overs is NEVER taken a player prop over when the odds makers predict it's gonna be a blowout ( 10+ points in nba /nfl ) bcuz most player prop bets are on overs on "stars/starters & if vegas is right & its a blowout its a good % the star gets benched early thus less volume & of course I only stick to 2 , maybe 3 but rarely , leg parlys - just straight bets @ the same amount - also anyone know a free site that is comparable to odds jam? Great video & it's much appreciated
love it, personally just do straight main lines with positive EV
What parameters do you use? I’m struggling to get truly profitable with the default settings. Is there a minimum % you play? Minimum max odds?
Do you use oddsjam?
Exactly how im approaching my Oddsjam Trial to attack California Books, so This helped a ton since i just bought the fantasy optimizer in addition to my Gold memebership. Thanks Billy, lets run it up this winter!
Thanks for watching!
Inbox brother
Love the content my man! Do you think it would be wiser to bet your prize picks plays individually? If you can consistently make a profit on prize picks, I think you could get a great return betting 0.5u on each leg straight up
I keep hitting 3-4 leg parlays for +100-+180 when I do crazy alternatives.
This weekend I had bucs -1.5
Rams +3.5
Eagles +10
Bills ML
update: Michkov didnt get a point lol
honestly no disrespect but id rather just do my own research and pick my own plays also Oddsjam is nowhere near affordable for the average sports bettor
Agreed it's pricey , do you know of a free comparable site to OJ ?
We have prize picks in Pennsylvania now Budd?
i’m not following why you’re stating, be conservative with player prob bet sizes, i want 70-75% of the money on main line market bets, versus 25-30% on player props, but then in your examples you wagered far more on the player prop than the main market. in fact, your main market wager was similar in size to your 2 leg parlay.
Hey there Luke. To answer your question, my wager size is dependent on the edge we're receiving in the market. In the James Madison ML example the edge was only 1.25% so the wager size was smaller compared to the edge for the player prop. That's why I wagered more on Michkov.
@ i understand that, but you said you do 70-75% main market wagers. you also said there are many more props with an edge than main markets, and with higher edges usually at that. so i’m wondering how you do 75% of your action on main markets if this is the case? just via volume? thanks for the reply.
How much of my bankroll should I be playing daily if I’m strictly doing +EV?
As long as you’re getting true value on every play and sticking to Kelly the goal truly is to get your whole bankroll down
Look up Kelly criterion.
Just invest in the S&P 500 if your gunna be getting a 3% ROI
ROI in sports betting IS NOT the same as ROI in the stock market. The latter is a yearly return. Sports Betting ROI is daily compound. In sports betting you're "investing" everyday, and so the profits are compounded.
As an example, if you started the year with a bankroll of $500 and you bet $100 every single day, you would end up gambling $36,500 over the course of the year. A 3% ROI in that case would give you a profit of $1,095. An 8% ROI for that $500 in the S&P 500 would be $40.
If I bet 160 to win 119 do I get the 160 back and 119 as well ?
Yea
this might sound insane to many especially if they see the videos where your hit rate shows your profit but i got serious about a month ago with sports betting and im on a heater, talking 68% success on player props im up 100 unites this month
EDIT: UNITS not UNITES
Good job man , imo might wanna scale ur unit size down bcuz the market ( books ) catch up w/ player's props & u wanna persevere your hard earned units