So, I did some digging for tonight's game and went after player props. Just with $20 I played 4 players with + odds. Hit 2 with over $50 profit. 😊 I'm sold.
Not entirely on topic with player props, but I was always told you should be taking the UNDER on any season long o/u player total, due to the fact the player could get injured.. there is no edge on OVER as if the player continues to play, he can't "overplay" so to speak.
Valid point. You’ll often see that season long player totals skew slightly lower because of this. Also good to factor in the opportunity cost of tying up capital in a season long prop vs fading the player week to week.
Last season I bet on a big 4 player parlay. They scratched DeGrom due to the injury. Everything else hit. Ohtani over HR total, Yordan Alvarez Under HR total, and I can’t remember the other 1 right now. Sucks DeGrom being voided dropped odds significantly but still a good pay day.
You can use Unabated's tools to attack the lines at any sportsbook you can access in California. Since CA doesn't have regulated betting yet, your choices are offshore books or unregulated books. You can find some of those books listed on Unabated.
Not sure how you would account for a 2 point conversion in the total like you talk about. The chance of getting 2 is about 50%, so whether they get 6 or 8 points, the average is still 7, would love to see an example with numbers. Also, a lot won't do it in the 3rd quarter, mostly only the 4th quarter
Preciate this. I didn’t pay attention to projections. I tried making my own projections based on statistics. Did pretty good but not as consistent as I’d like to be
Hey I loved this video! I’m a future video could you cover how round robins work and in what scenarios should you do a round Robin rather than a parlay? Been betting for a while but never understood the statistics behind round robins. Just a thought, keep the great vids coming!
The only thing round robins are good for is reducing the variance in parlays. They don’t change your win expectancy and there’s no way to overcome the compounded vig you pay in parlays by using round robins. Just like parlays, you’d only want to use them when you have an edge.
Captain Jack what is your take on using projections; single set of projections or is it best to blend 2 or more sets. I guess as a metaphor, is it not good to have too many chefs in the kitchen or better to have multiple sets of eyes on it.
Finding good projections is tough. When you find a good source you can trust them almost implicitly. When you aren’t as confident then your best path is blending. Giving some blend to how the market views things is wise as well, especially in more liquid prop markets. That’s why we have the ability to blend in market-based projections.
Unfortunately, finding free projections that are good is tough. A popular topic on our Discord is where to source good projections. You can check that out at: unabated.com/discord
I know of a sindicate that solely does player props. They've made alot of money, but books are catching up to them... My book only allows a $500 profit on a lay or a $500 bet on a plus money bet on most props.
Jack i love your channel. Youll grow. Hopefully the sports bettors will grow too. I have a dream of everyone betting the right way but every time i go to my local sportsbooks everyone is betting ten team parlays, telling me about how they were one win away, or bragging about a rare huge win. sometimes its hard to stay disciplined but we have to think about the ROI of betting straights over the long term. Thank you for you videos and your information.
That’s your personal choice. Some players look to preserve an account by not betting things they know books won’t tolerate. However, there is also the school of thought to just make as much money as possible and deal with account limits by betting through other people later.
Captain, last night I made an even money bet on NY Rangers $5. As soon as they scored first I bet that $5 on FL Panthers when the price shot up +185. What would the total investment be 5 or 10?
In the Tanner Houck example in the video, yes. However, every situation is different. It's a matter of probability and price. If the probability exceeds the price, it's a good bet. To find the probability, you can use sharp projections. To find the prices available, you can use an odds screen.
how would u find the % edge for example if their median would be 5.2 and the listed was 5.5, would u need to find the % using something like a z score then calculating the implied probs?
To find the edge you compare the probability to the price. In a simulation you have the distribution of results to determine the probability. For example, if the distribution shows a 50.5% chance of Houck going under 5.5 K’s, then that would be a 2.01% edge. ((.505 * 202) - 100))/100 For more information on this formula you can check out the old Captain Jack video on calculating your edge: ruclips.net/video/nN8XR7IlKo4/видео.htmlsi=Bele2LHjK45f6va7
Using just the average performance of the last X number of games isn't a great projection source. Quality of opponent matters, injuries matter, more advanced metrics matter. That's why relying on DFS projections is much better...they take more into account than just L5 or L10.
So, I did some digging for tonight's game and went after player props. Just with $20 I played 4 players with + odds. Hit 2 with over $50 profit. 😊 I'm sold.
Not entirely on topic with player props, but I was always told you should be taking the UNDER on any season long o/u player total, due to the fact the player could get injured.. there is no edge on OVER as if the player continues to play, he can't "overplay" so to speak.
Valid point. You’ll often see that season long player totals skew slightly lower because of this. Also good to factor in the opportunity cost of tying up capital in a season long prop vs fading the player week to week.
Last season I bet on a big 4 player parlay. They scratched DeGrom due to the injury. Everything else hit. Ohtani over HR total, Yordan Alvarez Under HR total, and I can’t remember the other 1 right now. Sucks DeGrom being voided dropped odds significantly but still a good pay day.
What sportsbook you have?
Just got into DFS and found your RUclips page. Very informative and detailed videos 👍👍
Don't pay for picks. Sign up to my program instead. Just stop...
Would unabated be good to use in California?
You can use Unabated's tools to attack the lines at any sportsbook you can access in California. Since CA doesn't have regulated betting yet, your choices are offshore books or unregulated books. You can find some of those books listed on Unabated.
Not sure how you would account for a 2 point conversion in the total like you talk about. The chance of getting 2 is about 50%, so whether they get 6 or 8 points, the average is still 7, would love to see an example with numbers. Also, a lot won't do it in the 3rd quarter, mostly only the 4th quarter
Preciate this. I didn’t pay attention to projections. I tried making my own projections based on statistics. Did pretty good but not as consistent as I’d like to be
Is underdog on unabated?
That lower price tier is genius. Thank you
Excellent breakdown as always!
for the algorithm!
Hey I loved this video! I’m a future video could you cover how round robins work and in what scenarios should you do a round Robin rather than a parlay? Been betting for a while but never understood the statistics behind round robins. Just a thought, keep the great vids coming!
The only thing round robins are good for is reducing the variance in parlays. They don’t change your win expectancy and there’s no way to overcome the compounded vig you pay in parlays by using round robins.
Just like parlays, you’d only want to use them when you have an edge.
Appreciate you as always Jack!
Are you sponsored by Circa? I have noticed almost all of your B-roll has circa sportsbook branding on it.
Circa was kind enough to let us shoot out B-roll there. All the other sportsbooks said no. Not sponsored by Circa but they are a good place to play.
Captain Jack thank you for all the expertise!!
Captain Jack what is your take on using projections; single set of projections or is it best to blend 2 or more sets. I guess as a metaphor, is it not good to have too many chefs in the kitchen or better to have multiple sets of eyes on it.
Finding good projections is tough. When you find a good source you can trust them almost implicitly. When you aren’t as confident then your best path is blending.
Giving some blend to how the market views things is wise as well, especially in more liquid prop markets. That’s why we have the ability to blend in market-based projections.
@Unabated where can you find free trustworthy projections because everything cost something and not guaranteed
Unfortunately, finding free projections that are good is tough. A popular topic on our Discord is where to source good projections. You can check that out at: unabated.com/discord
Great video!
Interesting I’m really trying my best to understand this more n I feel like my sports bet knowledge is like 70 percent right now
I know of a sindicate that solely does player props. They've made alot of money, but books are catching up to them...
My book only allows a $500 profit on a lay or a $500 bet on a plus money bet on most props.
Phenomenal! 🎉
Jack i love your channel. Youll grow. Hopefully the sports bettors will grow too. I have a dream of everyone betting the right way but every time i go to my local sportsbooks everyone is betting ten team parlays, telling me about how they were one win away, or bragging about a rare huge win. sometimes its hard to stay disciplined but we have to think about the ROI of betting straights over the long term. Thank you for you videos and your information.
If you are looking to bet $500-$1000 per bet, 35-40 bets per day, should I avoid player probs bc I'll be limited eventually?
That’s your personal choice. Some players look to preserve an account by not betting things they know books won’t tolerate. However, there is also the school of thought to just make as much money as possible and deal with account limits by betting through other people later.
Can you personally give me any bets ? I want to use your methods
35-40 bets a day is insane
signed up last night.. lost every bet i made lol...
This video here help me find the piece of what I’ve been looking for . Thanks . Keep up the great work
Engagement
Always great advice, Jack
Houck had 7ks
The game in the video was 5/20/24. He had 5 K’s.
Great video
good topic easy subscribe and like
👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Captain, last night I made an even money bet on NY Rangers $5. As soon as they scored first I bet that $5 on FL Panthers when the price shot up +185. What would the total investment be 5 or 10?
Your total investment was $10. Your EV would be calculated at the time you made each bet based on win probability at that time.
So basically you’re saying you should be taking the +odds on a player?
In the Tanner Houck example in the video, yes. However, every situation is different. It's a matter of probability and price. If the probability exceeds the price, it's a good bet. To find the probability, you can use sharp projections. To find the prices available, you can use an odds screen.
how would u find the % edge for example if their median would be 5.2 and the listed was 5.5, would u need to find the % using something like a z score then calculating the implied probs?
To find the edge you compare the probability to the price. In a simulation you have the distribution of results to determine the probability. For example, if the distribution shows a 50.5% chance of Houck going under 5.5 K’s, then that would be a 2.01% edge.
((.505 * 202) - 100))/100
For more information on this formula you can check out the old Captain Jack video on calculating your edge: ruclips.net/video/nN8XR7IlKo4/видео.htmlsi=Bele2LHjK45f6va7
Fine.... I subscribed...
Is the simulator accessible for the Essential Plan or just the Premium Plan?
The prop simulator is accessible from the Essential Plan. Our in-house WNBA projections require a Premium subscription.
Keep uploading videos to help us pls
Thanks for the knowledge!
Question: Do you use the average and median numbers for the entire season, Last 20, last 10 or last 5 games?
Using just the average performance of the last X number of games isn't a great projection source. Quality of opponent matters, injuries matter, more advanced metrics matter. That's why relying on DFS projections is much better...they take more into account than just L5 or L10.
@@Unabated oh ok cool. I kinda figured that. Wanted some clarification. Thanks
👍🏾
Many books in Europe offer player props but they only offer the OVER !! One way bets are stupid, right?
Not only stupid, but they make our list of: The 5 WORST Bets In A Sportsbook
ruclips.net/video/S8ouLblnUCw/видео.html