My cheeky answer: I have read Greg Bear and I have also read a bit about the history of the discovery of the New World. So yep. 😄 The potential upside of Contact is great! The potential downside is essentially infinite: complete annihilation. Plug that downside into the risk assessment formula and it doesn't really matter what the probabilities of each outcome are, does it?
Unless habitable planets like earth are incredibly rare and the aliens need it to survive, I'd imagine they would be more than capable of gathering resources they need without ever visiting us.
I still believe distance is the reason we have yet to find another civilization. Still though I wonder about possible signals from passing ships. Just because there was a one off signal doesn't mean it came from a planet. Perhaps the WOW signal was from a passing star ship and we just happen to intercept it. Thanks for the episode.
I agree. I believe that IF we find and confirm an artificial radio signal in the future it is likely to be from some type of beacon scanning our area OR a long distance "radio lighthouse" used for internal communication (maybe for their ships as you speculate on). Maybe a simple beacon emitting coordinates and such to and from their worlds - the WOW signal match that type of object also. I believe it would be very unlikely that it contains some sort of message to us as they have no "easy way" of knowing that we are here or what type of technological level we are on and so on.
You totally need to invite Seth Shostak to your podcast. You have so many SETI topics on your channel and Seth is always so eager to take part in any SETI related interview, let alone on popular channels like this. Seriously please consider this!
He was one of our first guests ever, but we do need to do a second episode with him. Here is the first episode: ruclips.net/video/ag6g0y0H9ww/видео.html
@@EventHorizonShow You know, I think I might have seen it before, but never realised it was on this channel...definitely need to do episode no.2 though!
The worst part about METI is that they'd not be endangering any of the people on Earth right now, but rather they would be rolling the dice and potentially endangering people who will not be born for hundreds if not thousands of years.
40:00 There is a problem with this argument. In every single case where a more advanced culture has contacted a less advanced culture and wiped them out, the less advanced culture had something the more advanced culture wanted. That would not be the case in here. There is no resource on Earth that can't be had elsewhere and be easier to access. There is no reason a more advanced culture would wish to conquer us. They would see us as we see the people of North Sentinel Island. Those people have made it quite clear they have no wish to interact with us. And because they have no recourse we want, we are happy to grant their request.
He was wrong though. The latest discovery is that the wow signal can occur naturally in space. So not aliens. But his explanation of it being human was wrong. And there were good arguments back then for why it was unlikely to be from humans, which is why it was so interesting.
I think it’s a combination of things, rare earth, rare intelligence, interstellar travel is so difficult, not easy to see objects so far away just the sheer size of everything
@@TheNoodlyAppendage and follow up with an interstellar version of a war of the worlds type broadcast. And they the invaders are then headed to you next at the end. . that would be funny.
"Their interest must be predicated on our being technological." It's also possible that hyperadvanced ETs arrived millions of years ago, began "gardening" the planet, and we're just another one of their cultivations.
Once technological advancement stagnates we might need to set up "do overs" to see if a society with different starting condition develops in a way we never would of thought of.....heck different base maths....different branches such as biological computing or whatnot.
This episode of Event Horizon has been one of the most entertaining, interesting, and intelligent interviews I’ve ever enjoyed, regardless of creator. Kudos to both JMG and Dan Werthimer for this “peek behind the curtain” at the current state of SETI, future paths SETI might take, as well as other intelligent and related topics. My personal vote on METI is NO. I was also one of the original SETI @ HOME participants and competitively enjoyed top ratings in my chosen S@H group. In my profile I had a long detailed essay of sorts expressing my negative thoughts regarding METI, at that time. Those thoughts of mine have not changed over the decades. METI is still a bad idea. One of the reasons why METI could be so much more problematic than the regular Radio Frequency Emissions we broadcast is that a targeted METI transmission can be done with an extremely powerful, megawatt class transmitter, through a narrow beam, very high gain, dish antenna making its signal detectable MUCH MUCH further away than any of the regular radio broadcasts that we emit. If I remember correctly, the targeted METI signal that Arecibo transmitted in the 70s or 80s was aimed at M13, a globular cluster of stars, on the outskirts of our Milky Way galaxy, and it was claimed at the time of the transmission, that it would be detectable at M13 by a similarly capable Arecibo class instrument at that distance!!!!!! I’ll have to post this comment, then look up the approximate distance to M13 and come back and edit-add it to the bottom of this comment since I can’t remember that distance anymore with my aging brain. Whatever that distance is to M13, it is many times more distant than our regular radio broadcasts would ever be detectable from. Still sounds dangerous to me! … ON EDIT … M13 is over 22,000 (‼️) light years away. Way way way beyond what our regular radio frequency broadcasts could ever reach. Hundreds of times further.
According to work done by David Kipping and Robert Gray roughly 2 more months of data is necessary to confirm or deny the extraterrestrial origin of the Wow signal. David actually did a video on it on the Cool Worlds channel.
As many in the comments pointed out, the distance is only plausible explanation for not discovering any ET life which I'm pretty sure do exist, microbial atleast.
I agree, it was light years better. Speculative science doesn't need to jump off the deep end in order to make compelling content. This is JMG at his finest.
I so agree that we shouldn’t be announcing our presence! Maybe we are very visible already, maybe they’re already visiting! But we are advancing technologically and we have no idea what the risks are and it’s also not very democratic to do that without our agreement!
Hello Michael, great and informative program. Is possible to host @Timothy Ferris. He is among the team who worked with Carl Sagan for the Voyager voices of the Earth. I think it would be interesting to hear from the Behind the scenes of how those sounds were prepared. He is also very informative in other space related subjects.
One of your best guests. Great range of topics. I have always wondered how Arecibo transmitted a signal. Now I know. Alien: "that signal we picked up won't be a problem for a thousand years. But, since we may not be as attentive then as we are now, we need to exterminate them."
Can you imagine a species, so advanced, it could first detect us amongst the trillions of stars, then traverse the vast expanses of the universe, in a time frame quick enough where we have existed ( the blink of an eye in cosmic terms) our nuclear weapons wouldn't be much of a defence against something which could do all that.
Species like that could skip the whole coming here part. They probably have access to enough energy, that they can fire an artificial gamma ray burst at us, and sterilize the planet without even coming here.
I have this feeling that nuclear weapons are probably going to be considered dangerous to any technological civilization in the cosmos. There is a lot of power in splitting atoms. And right now, I can't imagine shields being an actual thing in how we envision them today. But they may have technology quick enough to avoid something as slow as a missile if they travel across the universe at even half the speed of light somehow. So many possibilities either way.
In the case that they travel faster than light we probably wouldn’t see them until they are here. And then it’d be too late to even attempt a nuclear defense plan.
No matter how advanced they are, they can't travel anywhere near the speed of light. Even if they travel 99% the speed of light they would take millions or billions of years to get to us. They can't know we exist since we have been around for 300k and only transmitted signals for under 100 years
Lol why was the guy shitting on the boys implying they can't think past explosions. I guess he's trying to highlight that girls are good in stem fields which is cool but it's not really a competition. Both sexes have smart kids with good ideas.
Is it a dark forest out there? Reminds me of the old (Like me!) AT&T commercial for their long distance phone service, to "Reach out and touch someone." That someone could be Darth Vader in this instance. I say NO! to METI.
I think the reason we haven’t detected any other intelligent life is because our technology is simply too primitive. Advanced civilizations are not going to rely on something as slow as radio signals which communicate merely at the speed of light. We’ve literally just crawled out of the Middle Ages and are still in our scientific and technological infancy. Change is coming fast and with the eventual advent of general AI, I suspect our understanding of physics and the natural world will change fundamentally. I think we overestimate how much we understand in the present day. We’re on the cusp of radical change but we’ll need the singularity before discovery and interface with alien civilizations can become a reality, and at that point it won’t be humans on earth that will be the dominant intelligence.
Even scarier thought is that the exponential technological advancement of the past 300 or so years was very much the exception, and not the rule, and we are quickly reaching near the limits of physics and technology. I wouldn't take it for granted that of course we will invent FTL communications just because technology has advanced exponentially so far. If this is the case, then that too would be a fermi paradox solution, if you combine it with intelligent life just being fairly rare(maybe 1-3 species per galaxy). Then none of them would have any realistic chance to see or contact each other in a very long time. Galaxy can be colonized by crawling at sub light speeds, but it's going to take a while, and it could be that the other few(if any) aliens in our galaxy haven't evolved yet, or didn't evolve too far back to have colonized everything yet. Or just went extinct.
The only way this is true is if ftl or ftl communication doesn't break causality. Physicists tell me it definitely without a doubt does and they bust out Penrose diagrams to prove it. I am not convinced.
Maybe I'm looking at it wrong would slowing my perception, biological processes, even entropy at a quantum level(radioactive decay?) be the same as increasing the speed of light? Then traveling near c would have even greater dilation effects!
@@MidWitPride If it takes (ballpark) millions of years to expand across a galaxy, then there are no "million-year civilizations" in our galaxy, or else they'd physically have gotten hear already If it takes (ballpark) tens of millions of years to expand across a galaxy group, then there are no "ten mega-year civs" in our Local Group (MWG, Andromeda, Triangulum) If it takes (ballpark) hundreds of millions of years to expand across a galaxy cluster, then there are no "hundred mega-year civs" in our local Virgo Cluster region But there could be a "ten mega-year civ" elsewhere in our Cluster Or even a "mega-year civ" elsewhere in our Group
I live close to the sea (3 minutes walk) and I often go swimming. There is a beach straight in front of the main promenade/town center. There is no underwaterlife there. Then you can also walk southwestwards over the beach and take a swim there. Guess what, there are fish there, some cute small fish and some bigger fish. Not so long ago, some beaches in Barcelona, Sitges and Vilanova has been closed due to the discovery of some shortfin mako's and some blue sharks. Of course, now you can swim again and the sharks are gone. Moral of the story. You may think that the sea has no life, because you can swim and swim and look underwater and all you can see is sand but no fish, crabs etc whatsoever... But, in reality, the sea is full of life :-)
Several things leap to my mind. Suppose alien civilisations don’t use radio? Suppose they’re in the huge timescale where complex animal life exists but not technological. Thirdly suppose they just don’t want to be found? It’s fascinating. Love it. Well done on the channel.
Wow, the class that he mentioned was quite interesting. "The boys wanted to use machine guns to get through the ice, but the girls wanted to build a half meter long submarine and coat it with a radioactive material that has a short half-life so it would stay hot and melt its way through the ice and also coat the hull of the submarite with thermopiles to generate electricity". This middle school class represents the world so accurately... It's no coincidence that Einstein and Stephen Hawkins were both women.
@@sombra1111 I have discovered that RUclips censors the word @boy. Lol. It ghosted your reply in the comment section so I can't see it unless I click the notification 😂
Great talk, John Michael! The possibility of alien life is fascinating to me as is how life arose. Thank you for such an enjoyable and interesting episode and thank you for uploading, Event Horizons.
I believe intelligent species are widely separated in both time and space, interstellar travel is virtually impossible, colonization of other star systems does not happen, and that technological civilizations last for a short time before they use up available energy sources and collapse. We may not be truly “alone” in the universe, but we may as well be.
Hiding is too hard. Anyone who can threaten you can detect you much more easily. I don't like dark forest at all. It might be a quiet graveyard though.
I cannot believe the hubris of sending signals out to other intelligent beings, on behalf of the human race, without first having a conversation with the human race. The consequences could be great, and they will affect everyone.
I wonder how many people simply wish to remain as the center of the universe? The special ones. No. Humanity needs to know in order to continue growing up.
Someone needs to start construction on a conference venue large enough to house 8 Billion people . . . . Can't wait to hear the opinions of the halfwits that you've invited.
Pre thoughts: If we are looking for a multi star system civilization, we would be way far away from whatever technologies they are using to read or send messages that are using what they are. Like using a telegraph when everyone’s using cellphone.
I had a similar idea of a lander landing on one of the ice moons and lowering a probe that contain an RTG into the ice. The probe would have to spool out cable from within itself because the ice would re freeze behind the probe as it goes. That cable could be used to transmit data back to the lander and then back to earth.
Well... There are only really a few ways it plays out in my mind: A) There's nothing within a reasonable distance that is able to detect it. B) There are beings who can receive it near by and they ignore it (no interest in contact). C) There are beings near enough, but they either aren't technologically advanced enough to see it, aren't looking for it, or are too advanced to be using/looking for our primitive signals. D) There are beings who can receive it and are peaceful. E) There are beings that can receive it and are hostile. If life here on Earth is any indication, there's a much higher chance they are hostile. The real question then is, are they technologically advanced enough to come to us or to return the signal. We certainly can't go to them currently. Overall... If life goes by survival of the fittest, and that doesn't change once a lifeform becomes space fairing, we are up shits creek. *On that note though*: I don't believe that a life form capable of, not only receiving the signal, but also traveling to us, would not be capable of detecting us through their own means, and therefore, if hostile, would be making moves against us regardless of whether or not we use METI.
I also have the notion that life elsewhere will probably be equally hostile because of nature. Humans can't seem to go beyond their messy nature and work as one. There's always someone looking to step on everyone else. Can't even do it now and we're more set up to work together than ever before. I doubt aliens could escape their nature if we can't.
I think an advanced being would be able to detect & would be aware on how to detect our signals. If they so wanted to go "rookie advanced civilization" hunting, knowing there'd be so few and far between. Or they've been there, done that -- not motivated, but just send drones to observe and not write a reply via our means trying to ensure we get it, etc. That said, it's jumping the gun that they every star out there would be in position to pick up our super-uber-weak signals of I Love Lucy and the like -- not only not pointing in our direction to listen in + also the signal being too weak, clouded, and interfered by the time it reaches them. Not to mention some places may have observed us, and every 100 years take a look at us, and to send some drone (which obviously would be done first) -- still only going a fraction of the speed of light, would take Eons our time to get here. And dammit, we want to see them now! So therefore, there must be none out there.
They'd have to be pretty deeply committed to hostility for its own sake to travel here to harm us. I'm more afraid of alien hygiene freaks than warmongers.
What about a potential existential shock for a species behind us? One that has just developed radio, and wasn't ready to discover the existence of a more advanced civilization, meaning us? If we don't know their temperament and psychology, maybe we'd be volunteering them for a risk.
At 6:52 - 6:53 , Dan Werthimer states the hypothesis about life starting in and around the deep ocean thermal vents, which has been around a while, since the discovery of life around the thermal vents. I believe the latest scientific thinking is that the thermal vent origin is probably not _necessarily_ well founded anymore. I think the latest scientific thinking is that what is likely needed is _both moisture/wetting and drying out_ which requires rocky surfaces, creating repeating gradients of moisture for which chemical/biochemical process are more likely to take effect, and for which a totally and constantly wet environment wouldn't be conducive.
Has anyone tried crowd funding for a year or even a month of dedicated telescope time? He mentioned $100mil/year, which is costly but 100k people at $10 each gets over a month, if that became a bi-monthly subscription that buys 6 months of a year. I have no idea if you could get those numbers at that price but I would be in even as a yearly sub to get 1month/year. I also do not know the avaliability of telescopes, just an idea.
As I click on this thumbnail I think to myself that if there is someone out there, with HUGE enough ears to hear us, it's already too late to be concerned about the possible danger. We've been broadcasting for quite a few decades already. 🤷 Then later in the show, John says, how dangerous would it really be? There is an abundance of stuff in the galaxy, why come here and be destructive to the native life? 🤷 But as the guest says, you can't really estimate the possibilities. Again 🤷 I guess I'd have to say, it's over my pay grade 🙃. Great show JMG 👏
Maybe try higher frequencies, 50Ghz and up, I don't think there is much using that high frequency. Also laser. If the Wow signal is interference, then it should have repeated. I really get the feeling that the powers that be don't want anything to do with ET.
"Time conquers all" The older, more ancient, more archaic "They" are, the longer "Their" civilization has had to expand, and the farther "They" have reached across the Cosmos The first civilization to encounter earth will likely be very very old ("millions & millions of years")
Possibly, unless you start going down the dark forest theory. Another theory I’ve heard a few times recently, is that eventually any advanced civilisation will create weapons that get more and more advanced, until eventually, a kid in his bedroom can make something that could destroy themselves and possibly all and everything. The more advanced you get the bigger the chances of self destruction. Having said all that, I also believe life probably exists in some form on any surface that has had a hint of water in its existence. Little bit like a slice of bread left to rot, you’ll see blooms of life and I believe the universe is the same.
"Get ready, Ensign Glarr. I want that signal sent as soon as their system comes online. We spent thousands of years searching for signals before we found any sort of galactic community and I don't want these mammals wasting one minute of their precious time. Steady Ensign, steady... and ... now! Perfect timing and it's unmistakable! Well done everyone. Now then, what was their response?"
This is one of the best conversations I have heard on your channel. Very interesting and thought provoking. Maybe it's time to let the little girls run NASA?
Very mixed thoughts about WOW. Skeptical as I am about it I can't go along with dismissiveness either. A guest on an earlier show very bluntly (condescendingly?) said if it were up to her you would have never heard about the Wow Signal, and complained about wasting resources chasing it. I sympathize, but can't go that far. The minimum distance issue and the nearly perfectly parabolic rise and fall of the signal will always prevent it from being 'case-closed' false positive for me, although non-receipt by the second horn diminishes excitement I otherwise would have.
We've been leaking massive amounts of electromagnetic energy in the form of radio to space for over a hundred years now. The cat's already out of the bag
The inverse square law makes our transmissions virtually undetectable from background radiation beyond a few light years. To be detectable a transmission would need to be very powerful and highly focused. We’ve sent one burst aimed at the globular cluster m13. Should be detectable by any aliens in the cluster in 21,000 years. Assuming they’re listening in our direction during the right 3-minute window.
It hasn't traveled far at all in relation to where intelligent life probably is. I don't think intelligence is even within 200 light years of us. By the time our signals reach a civilization it could be so far away the signals are diffuse and aren't detected.
JMG: you are a great interviewer and I have been listening to your channel for a few years but small criticism: why did you let the guest dismiss WOW! like that without politely pushing back? I watch your wow video all the time and you had perfect answers to his objections to wow.
Actually we have been transmitting our techno signature into space for much longer than radio has existed, and much more clearly. Our radio signatures are rather weak beyond several dozen light years. Perhaps even too weak to pick up no matter how advanced the technology. But we have been polluting our atmosphere with unnatural chemicals since the beginning of the industrial revaluation. And that techno signature will be obvious to anyone able to examine Earth atmosphere with a spectroscope.
As far as we can tell bio-signatures that our planet has been giving off for hundreds of millions of years are quite rare so even before we started getting vertebrates this planet would have been of some interest at least. The idea that aliens advanced enough to effect us somehow missed the obvious life signs here and then neglected to mark us out for further study or as a place where intelligence might arise seems ludicrous to me. It would be different if we discover that earth like worlds are a dime a dozen, but current models don't fit that.
Hey JMG, how about the currently on-going cosmologists' discussion related to data from JWST that allegedly contradicts both Space expansion and Big Bang theories?
The Distance of the universe is beyond imagination. But I believe that we would be egotistical to believe that we are the only intelligence to exist in these unimaginable distances
The expanse of time is equally beyond imagination -- a sufficiently ancient civilization, with enough of a "head start", could already have crossed Cosmic distances
Do you think METI is a dangerous idea?
My cheeky answer: I have read Greg Bear and I have also read a bit about the history of the discovery of the New World. So yep. 😄
The potential upside of Contact is great! The potential downside is essentially infinite: complete annihilation. Plug that downside into the risk assessment formula and it doesn't really matter what the probabilities of each outcome are, does it?
No intelligent aliens so no.
I'm hesitant to "communicate" with fellow Earthlings, so, yes: METI = Bad Idea.
Unless habitable planets like earth are incredibly rare and the aliens need it to survive, I'd imagine they would be more than capable of gathering resources they need without ever visiting us.
Noone is there to listen. Only sludge worlds.
I still believe distance is the reason we have yet to find another civilization. Still though I wonder about possible signals from passing ships. Just because there was a one off signal doesn't mean it came from a planet. Perhaps the WOW signal was from a passing star ship and we just happen to intercept it. Thanks for the episode.
Ohhhhh… VERY cool thought. That’s what I believe now ! Thanks
I guess we are just happy to be early.
There was that other signal in 1993 that came from an unoccupied position in space that could have been a starship.
I agree. I believe that IF we find and confirm an artificial radio signal in the future it is likely to be from some type of beacon scanning our area OR a long distance "radio lighthouse" used for internal communication (maybe for their ships as you speculate on). Maybe a simple beacon emitting coordinates and such to and from their worlds - the WOW signal match that type of object also. I believe it would be very unlikely that it contains some sort of message to us as they have no "easy way" of knowing that we are here or what type of technological level we are on and so on.
I think we haven’t found life simply because we don’t have the technology to see the surface of planets outside of our solar system
You totally need to invite Seth Shostak to your podcast. You have so many SETI topics on your channel and Seth is always so eager to take part in any SETI related interview, let alone on popular channels like this. Seriously please consider this!
He was one of our first guests ever, but we do need to do a second episode with him. Here is the first episode: ruclips.net/video/ag6g0y0H9ww/видео.html
He's been on and very likely will be back:
ruclips.net/video/ag6g0y0H9ww/видео.html
@@EventHorizonShow You know, I think I might have seen it before, but never realised it was on this channel...definitely need to do episode no.2 though!
Time change so I am sure we need new episode with Seth Shostak!
@@EventHorizonShow what about Gary “Larry” Nolan?
The worst part about METI is that they'd not be endangering any of the people on Earth right now, but rather they would be rolling the dice and potentially endangering people who will not be born for hundreds if not thousands of years.
I dont think we need to worry. We will either be gone or very advanced. I dont think humans would survive the stone age again.
I don't know how do you get these people to interview, but I think you are doing a great job. Keep it up!
I suspect, given the small size of the Professional SETI community, he is well known in their circle.
My favorite moment of the week. Thank you Event Horizon.
I had the Seti on my computer processing 24/7. As a screen saver back in day.
40:00 There is a problem with this argument. In every single case where a more advanced culture has contacted a less advanced culture and wiped them out, the less advanced culture had something the more advanced culture wanted.
That would not be the case in here. There is no resource on Earth that can't be had elsewhere and be easier to access. There is no reason a more advanced culture would wish to conquer us.
They would see us as we see the people of North Sentinel Island. Those people have made it quite clear they have no wish to interact with us. And because they have no recourse we want, we are happy to grant their request.
Their motive would have to be irrational. Not impossible, and it broadens the possibilities.
Hygiene freaks? Religious fanatics? Sex maniacs?
@@bozo5632 Maybe just a constructor fleet. Earth has to be destroyed to make way for a bypass.
Dan absolutely made sense. No clickbait theories about the WOW signal but common sense.
He was wrong though. The latest discovery is that the wow signal can occur naturally in space. So not aliens. But his explanation of it being human was wrong. And there were good arguments back then for why it was unlikely to be from humans, which is why it was so interesting.
love this community! thanks Godier!
I think it’s a combination of things, rare earth, rare intelligence, interstellar travel is so difficult, not easy to see objects so far away just the sheer size of everything
totally agree..
A truly scary potential signal that give me chills to think about is "Be Quiet, it/they will hear you!"
Nah, we're humans. We fight against the dying of the light.
We should transmit that.
@@TheNoodlyAppendage and follow up with an interstellar version of a war of the worlds type broadcast. And they the invaders are then headed to you next at the end. . that would be funny.
Human = wars
My favorite METI method is going outside at night and shouting at the sky.
"Their interest must be predicated on our being technological." It's also possible that hyperadvanced ETs arrived millions of years ago, began "gardening" the planet, and we're just another one of their cultivations.
Once technological advancement stagnates we might need to set up "do overs" to see if a society with different starting condition develops in a way we never would of thought of.....heck different base maths....different branches such as biological computing or whatnot.
Constant gardeners 😂
DNA record would likely show it. AFAIK everything looks natural.
@@bozo5632 I dunno the precambrian explosion is pretty sus.
@@Kwitzats AFAIK that explosion was the sudden appearance of hard parts that could be preserved, more than a sudden explosion of wacky critters.
This episode of Event Horizon has been one of the most entertaining, interesting, and intelligent interviews I’ve ever enjoyed, regardless of creator.
Kudos to both JMG and Dan Werthimer for this “peek behind the curtain” at the current state of SETI, future paths SETI might take, as well as other intelligent and related topics.
My personal vote on METI is NO. I was also one of the original SETI @ HOME participants and competitively enjoyed top ratings in my chosen S@H group. In my profile I had a long detailed essay of sorts expressing my negative thoughts regarding METI, at that time. Those thoughts of mine have not changed over the decades. METI is still a bad idea.
One of the reasons why METI could be so much more problematic than the regular Radio Frequency Emissions we broadcast is that a targeted METI transmission can be done with an extremely powerful, megawatt class transmitter, through a narrow beam, very high gain, dish antenna making its signal detectable MUCH MUCH further away than any of the regular radio broadcasts that we emit.
If I remember correctly, the targeted METI signal that Arecibo transmitted in the 70s or 80s was aimed at M13, a globular cluster of stars, on the outskirts of our Milky Way galaxy, and it was claimed at the time of the transmission, that it would be detectable at M13 by a similarly capable Arecibo class instrument at that distance!!!!!!
I’ll have to post this comment, then look up the approximate distance to M13 and come back and edit-add it to the bottom of this comment since I can’t remember that distance anymore with my aging brain.
Whatever that distance is to M13, it is many times more distant than our regular radio broadcasts would ever be detectable from.
Still sounds dangerous to me!
… ON EDIT …
M13 is over 22,000 (‼️) light years away. Way way way beyond what our regular radio frequency broadcasts could ever reach. Hundreds of times further.
So why did they think an Arecibo class instrument could read the signal? Seems like a pretty trivial calculation
According to work done by David Kipping and Robert Gray roughly 2 more months of data is necessary to confirm or deny the extraterrestrial origin of the Wow signal. David actually did a video on it on the Cool Worlds channel.
Yes we’re aware.
As many in the comments pointed out, the distance is only plausible explanation for not discovering any ET life which I'm pretty sure do exist, microbial atleast.
There is also the Rare Earth Hypothesis.
"They didn't get gorillas crawling out of their test tube" 🤣
That was awesome!
A scary message to get: "Be quiet. They might hear you."
This one was sooooooo much better. Love the longer format.
I agree, it was light years better. Speculative science doesn't need to jump off the deep end in order to make compelling content. This is JMG at his finest.
I so agree that we shouldn’t be announcing our presence! Maybe we are very visible already, maybe they’re already visiting! But we are advancing technologically and we have no idea what the risks are and it’s also not very democratic to do that without our agreement!
As we face our own extinction, we ask if there is anyone else out there. The Fermi Paradox is a thing, people. Work harder at survival.
Thank you! My thoughts exactly.
Hello Michael, great and informative program. Is possible to host @Timothy Ferris. He is among the team who worked with Carl Sagan for the Voyager voices of the Earth. I think it would be interesting to hear from the Behind the scenes of how those sounds were prepared. He is also very informative in other space related subjects.
Indeed. He was a guest last year! ruclips.net/video/nJYSeNzzfDI/видео.html
@@EventHorizonShow Thanks for the reply... I am gonna listen in immediately. How did I miss out!!
@@EventHorizonShow what about Gary Nolan
the timing is amazing.... just for bedtime. love this channel
I have jumped into the Event Horizon, with John Michael Godier
I have been spaghettified, with John Michael Godier
My favorite podcast in the galaxy
One of your best guests. Great range of topics. I have always wondered how Arecibo transmitted a signal. Now I know.
Alien: "that signal we picked up won't be a problem for a thousand years. But, since we may not be as attentive then as we are now, we need to exterminate them."
Can you imagine a species, so advanced, it could first detect us amongst the trillions of stars, then traverse the vast expanses of the universe, in a time frame quick enough where we have existed ( the blink of an eye in cosmic terms) our nuclear weapons wouldn't be much of a defence against something which could do all that.
A species that is so advanced doesn't want anything to do with primitive apes that use their technology to destroy each other. 😉✌
Species like that could skip the whole coming here part.
They probably have access to enough energy, that they can fire an artificial gamma ray burst at us, and sterilize the planet without even coming here.
I have this feeling that nuclear weapons are probably going to be considered dangerous to any technological civilization in the cosmos. There is a lot of power in splitting atoms. And right now, I can't imagine shields being an actual thing in how we envision them today. But they may have technology quick enough to avoid something as slow as a missile if they travel across the universe at even half the speed of light somehow. So many possibilities either way.
In the case that they travel faster than light we probably wouldn’t see them until they are here. And then it’d be too late to even attempt a nuclear defense plan.
No matter how advanced they are, they can't travel anywhere near the speed of light. Even if they travel 99% the speed of light they would take millions or billions of years to get to us.
They can't know we exist since we have been around for 300k and only transmitted signals for under 100 years
As always, very interesting!
Great guest and topic!
It would awesome if you could get and update on the old photo plates search for objects in orbit pre 1959.
Lol why was the guy shitting on the boys implying they can't think past explosions. I guess he's trying to highlight that girls are good in stem fields which is cool but it's not really a competition. Both sexes have smart kids with good ideas.
Is it a dark forest out there? Reminds me of the old (Like me!) AT&T commercial for their long distance phone service, to "Reach out and touch someone." That someone could be Darth Vader in this instance. I say NO! to METI.
There's a nebula named after a tarantula therefore i question the prudence of letting the universe know we're here... 🕷️🕸️
Your screen-name...ah, Cancerization... eventually, we will all be like Dr. Zoidberg.
@@ryomichael lol, it's actually a Morrowind reference
I think the reason we haven’t detected any other intelligent life is because our technology is simply too primitive. Advanced civilizations are not going to rely on something as slow as radio signals which communicate merely at the speed of light. We’ve literally just crawled out of the Middle Ages and are still in our scientific and technological infancy. Change is coming fast and with the eventual advent of general AI, I suspect our understanding of physics and the natural world will change fundamentally. I think we overestimate how much we understand in the present day. We’re on the cusp of radical change but we’ll need the singularity before discovery and interface with alien civilizations can become a reality, and at that point it won’t be humans on earth that will be the dominant intelligence.
We still got some memories of middle Ages with us^^
Even scarier thought is that the exponential technological advancement of the past 300 or so years was very much the exception, and not the rule, and we are quickly reaching near the limits of physics and technology.
I wouldn't take it for granted that of course we will invent FTL communications just because technology has advanced exponentially so far.
If this is the case, then that too would be a fermi paradox solution, if you combine it with intelligent life just being fairly rare(maybe 1-3 species per galaxy). Then none of them would have any realistic chance to see or contact each other in a very long time.
Galaxy can be colonized by crawling at sub light speeds, but it's going to take a while, and it could be that the other few(if any) aliens in our galaxy haven't evolved yet, or didn't evolve too far back to have colonized everything yet. Or just went extinct.
The only way this is true is if ftl or ftl communication doesn't break causality. Physicists tell me it definitely without a doubt does and they bust out Penrose diagrams to prove it. I am not convinced.
Maybe I'm looking at it wrong would slowing my perception, biological processes, even entropy at a quantum level(radioactive decay?) be the same as increasing the speed of light? Then traveling near c would have even greater dilation effects!
@@MidWitPride If it takes (ballpark) millions of years to expand across a galaxy, then there are no "million-year civilizations" in our galaxy, or else they'd physically have gotten hear already
If it takes (ballpark) tens of millions of years to expand across a galaxy group, then there are no "ten mega-year civs" in our Local Group (MWG, Andromeda, Triangulum)
If it takes (ballpark) hundreds of millions of years to expand across a galaxy cluster, then there are no "hundred mega-year civs" in our local Virgo Cluster region
But there could be a "ten mega-year civ" elsewhere in our Cluster
Or even a "mega-year civ" elsewhere in our Group
Yep, Dan, the girls are smart enough to avoid running down all the people of their own gender too.
He was great....need to have him on again. (coming from long time listener to both channels)
what is the name of the song that plays at the beginning and end of the show? Anyone know??
I live close to the sea (3 minutes walk) and I often go swimming. There is a beach straight in front of the main promenade/town center. There is no underwaterlife there. Then you can also walk southwestwards over the beach and take a swim there. Guess what, there are fish there, some cute small fish and some bigger fish. Not so long ago, some beaches in Barcelona, Sitges and Vilanova has been closed due to the discovery of some shortfin mako's and some blue sharks. Of course, now you can swim again and the sharks are gone. Moral of the story. You may think that the sea has no life, because you can swim and swim and look underwater and all you can see is sand but no fish, crabs etc whatsoever... But, in reality, the sea is full of life :-)
Great. Friday morning in Perth Australia having breakfast listening to my favourite blog cast.
Fantastic interview, JMG! Thanks!!! 😃
Stay safe there with your family! 🖖😊
Fantastic episode. Algorithm pellets dispensed.
Several things leap to my mind. Suppose alien civilisations don’t use radio? Suppose they’re in the huge timescale where complex animal life exists but not technological. Thirdly suppose they just don’t want to be found? It’s fascinating. Love it. Well done on the channel.
Love you JMG!
Great interview.
Good stuff as always.
Wow, the class that he mentioned was quite interesting. "The boys wanted to use machine guns to get through the ice, but the girls wanted to build a half meter long submarine and coat it with a radioactive material that has a short half-life so it would stay hot and melt its way through the ice and also coat the hull of the submarite with thermopiles to generate electricity". This middle school class represents the world so accurately... It's no coincidence that Einstein and Stephen Hawkins were both women.
Oh yes, I forgot about Sir Isaac Newton. She was one of the most brilliant minds of all time.
Wut
@@bigcauc7530 You must be a male
@@sombra1111 I have discovered that RUclips censors the word @boy. Lol. It ghosted your reply in the comment section so I can't see it unless I click the notification 😂
@@bigcauc7530 😤
Great talk, John Michael! The possibility of alien life is fascinating to me as is how life arose. Thank you for such an enjoyable and interesting episode and thank you for uploading, Event Horizons.
I don't know what, or who, is out there but I want to know so badly!
Want to know what's out there? NOTHING!
Great episode :D have a good weekend event horizon! and everyone reading the comments!
I hope Seti at home gets going again, I colonized a whole computer hall with it over a summer at university 🙂
Any particular reason you release on Thursdays?
Just works best for our production schedule.
@@EventHorizonShow Ok then get Isaac to change to Mondays if possible. Bribe him with land and phosphorus
I believe intelligent species are widely separated in both time and space, interstellar travel is virtually impossible, colonization of other star systems does not happen, and that technological civilizations last for a short time before they use up available energy sources and collapse. We may not be truly “alone” in the universe, but we may as well be.
That's my conclusion except the resource limit causes social collapse more so than energy limitations.
The only one of those I'm confident about is that interstellar civs are non-existent or tiny. The economics of It... Nothing to gain.
We could be totally blind to an advanced civilization.
Always a fan of the dark forest hypothesis
Hiding is too hard. Anyone who can threaten you can detect you much more easily. I don't like dark forest at all.
It might be a quiet graveyard though.
I cannot believe the hubris of sending signals out to other intelligent beings, on behalf of the human race, without first having a conversation with the human race. The consequences could be great, and they will affect everyone.
I wonder how many people simply wish to remain as the center of the universe? The special ones. No. Humanity needs to know in order to continue growing up.
leaders couldn't give a crap about us now
Someone needs to start construction on a conference venue large enough to house 8 Billion people . . . .
Can't wait to hear the opinions of the halfwits that you've invited.
@@genghiscarnage4015 It's called polling, my friend.
@@zekayman No it isn't. You poll giving options. That is far, far removed from having a conversation. Try again.
Thanks so so much for the video, Talk.
Great show I love how you two talk like you guys are old friends in space 😁
Pre thoughts: If we are looking for a multi star system civilization, we would be way far away from whatever technologies they are using to read or send messages that are using what they are. Like using a telegraph when everyone’s using cellphone.
*citation needed
I’ve heard the story about the middle school kids.... is this a re upload ?
Thanks guys........that was fascinating.
Whenever I worked on any computer I’d put SETI@Home on it as the screen saver. I had one old family members ran for years with little interruption.
Great guest.
Like listening to Dan ... a great guest.
I used to run Seti@Home, until they changed the system. It was too hard to switch; don't remember the details now.
I had a similar idea of a lander landing on one of the ice moons and lowering a probe that contain an RTG into the ice. The probe would have to spool out cable from within itself because the ice would re freeze behind the probe as it goes. That cable could be used to transmit data back to the lander and then back to earth.
Well... There are only really a few ways it plays out in my mind:
A) There's nothing within a reasonable distance that is able to detect it.
B) There are beings who can receive it near by and they ignore it (no interest in contact).
C) There are beings near enough, but they either aren't technologically advanced enough to see it, aren't looking for it, or are too advanced to be using/looking for our primitive signals.
D) There are beings who can receive it and are peaceful.
E) There are beings that can receive it and are hostile.
If life here on Earth is any indication, there's a much higher chance they are hostile. The real question then is, are they technologically advanced enough to come to us or to return the signal. We certainly can't go to them currently. Overall... If life goes by survival of the fittest, and that doesn't change once a lifeform becomes space fairing, we are up shits creek.
*On that note though*: I don't believe that a life form capable of, not only receiving the signal, but also traveling to us, would not be capable of detecting us through their own means, and therefore, if hostile, would be making moves against us regardless of whether or not we use METI.
I also have the notion that life elsewhere will probably be equally hostile because of nature. Humans can't seem to go beyond their messy nature and work as one. There's always someone looking to step on everyone else. Can't even do it now and we're more set up to work together than ever before. I doubt aliens could escape their nature if we can't.
I think an advanced being would be able to detect & would be aware on how to detect our signals. If they so wanted to go "rookie advanced civilization" hunting, knowing there'd be so few and far between. Or they've been there, done that -- not motivated, but just send drones to observe and not write a reply via our means trying to ensure we get it, etc.
That said, it's jumping the gun that they every star out there would be in position to pick up our super-uber-weak signals of I Love Lucy and the like -- not only not pointing in our direction to listen in + also the signal being too weak, clouded, and interfered by the time it reaches them.
Not to mention some places may have observed us, and every 100 years take a look at us, and to send some drone (which obviously would be done first) -- still only going a fraction of the speed of light, would take Eons our time to get here. And dammit, we want to see them now! So therefore, there must be none out there.
They'd have to be pretty deeply committed to hostility for its own sake to travel here to harm us.
I'm more afraid of alien hygiene freaks than warmongers.
1:50 Laughing at you in 200 years? We're laughing at you today 😂
Happy Thursday everyone.
Not everyone. It's already Friday morning where I'm.
9 minute comment. For everybody further than 9 light minutes away, this video hasn't been uploaded yet
What about a potential existential shock for a species behind us? One that has just developed radio, and wasn't ready to discover the existence of a more advanced civilization, meaning us? If we don't know their temperament and psychology, maybe we'd be volunteering them for a risk.
Yes, short- pulsed signals is what we should listen for. That's what we'd send. Though we shouldn't send.
At 6:52 - 6:53 , Dan Werthimer states the hypothesis about life starting in and around the deep ocean thermal vents, which has been around a while, since the discovery of life around the thermal vents.
I believe the latest scientific thinking is that the thermal vent origin is probably not _necessarily_ well founded anymore.
I think the latest scientific thinking is that what is likely needed is _both moisture/wetting and drying out_ which requires rocky surfaces, creating repeating gradients of moisture for which chemical/biochemical process are more likely to take effect, and for which a totally and constantly wet environment wouldn't be conducive.
Just an algorithm boosting comment. Thanks EH for the great content as always!
Has anyone tried crowd funding for a year or even a month of dedicated telescope time? He mentioned $100mil/year, which is costly but 100k people at $10 each gets over a month, if that became a bi-monthly subscription that buys 6 months of a year. I have no idea if you could get those numbers at that price but I would be in even as a yearly sub to get 1month/year. I also do not know the avaliability of telescopes, just an idea.
That is interesting
As I click on this thumbnail I think to myself that if there is someone out there, with HUGE enough ears to hear us, it's already too late to be concerned about the possible danger. We've been broadcasting for quite a few decades already. 🤷
Then later in the show, John says, how dangerous would it really be? There is an abundance of stuff in the galaxy, why come here and be destructive to the native life? 🤷 But as the guest says, you can't really estimate the possibilities. Again 🤷 I guess I'd have to say, it's over my pay grade 🙃.
Great show JMG 👏
Maybe try higher frequencies, 50Ghz and up, I don't think there is much using that high frequency. Also laser.
If the Wow signal is interference, then it should have repeated. I really get the feeling that the powers that be don't want anything to do with ET.
Given the age and distances, what is the chances of civilisations crossing paths.
"Time conquers all"
The older, more ancient, more archaic "They" are, the longer "Their" civilization has had to expand, and the farther "They" have reached across the Cosmos
The first civilization to encounter earth will likely be very very old ("millions & millions of years")
Possibly, unless you start going down the dark forest theory.
Another theory I’ve heard a few times recently, is that eventually any advanced civilisation will create weapons that get more and more advanced, until eventually, a kid in his bedroom can make something that could destroy themselves and possibly all and everything. The more advanced you get the bigger the chances of self destruction.
Having said all that, I also believe life probably exists in some form on any surface that has had a hint of water in its existence.
Little bit like a slice of bread left to rot, you’ll see blooms of life and I believe the universe is the same.
You really don’t know what you don’t know, Godier. And no one knows what the existential dangers of blasting our signature into the Heavens might be.
Awesome question at 17:00 John!
"Get ready, Ensign Glarr. I want that signal sent as soon as their system comes online. We spent thousands of years searching for signals before we found any sort of galactic community and I don't want these mammals wasting one minute of their precious time.
Steady Ensign, steady... and ... now! Perfect timing and it's unmistakable!
Well done everyone.
Now then, what was their response?"
Can the JWST find things such as heat signatures from a supposed civilization if they were building say, a Dyson sphere?
What do you think of putting a jwst like mission into jovian orbit
To get "smart" you need enemies right?
10:30 the way John says “interesting!” makes it sound like it was added in post production 😂 😂
Great interview! (As always
Lol these young women. Dude had to simp hard. Yeah because women have done so much for science 🙄
That little girl was cheating 😂 She binged trough this and other similar channels a few times.
This is one of the best conversations I have heard on your channel.
Very interesting and thought provoking.
Maybe it's time to let the little girls run NASA?
Sorry but for me his view on the WOW signal being RFI undercut his objectivity.
Very mixed thoughts about WOW. Skeptical as I am about it I can't go along with dismissiveness either. A guest on an earlier show very bluntly (condescendingly?) said if it were up to her you would have never heard about the Wow Signal, and complained about wasting resources chasing it. I sympathize, but can't go that far. The minimum distance issue and the nearly perfectly parabolic rise and fall of the signal will always prevent it from being 'case-closed' false positive for me, although non-receipt by the second horn diminishes excitement I otherwise would have.
Great video !
We've been leaking massive amounts of electromagnetic energy in the form of radio to space for over a hundred years now. The cat's already out of the bag
The inverse square law makes our transmissions virtually undetectable from background radiation beyond a few light years. To be detectable a transmission would need to be very powerful and highly focused. We’ve sent one burst aimed at the globular cluster m13. Should be detectable by any aliens in the cluster in 21,000 years. Assuming they’re listening in our direction during the right 3-minute window.
It hasn't traveled far at all in relation to where intelligent life probably is. I don't think intelligence is even within 200 light years of us. By the time our signals reach a civilization it could be so far away the signals are diffuse and aren't detected.
JMG: you are a great interviewer and I have been listening to your channel for a few years but small criticism: why did you let the guest dismiss WOW! like that without politely pushing back? I watch your wow video all the time and you had perfect answers to his objections to wow.
Actually we have been transmitting our techno signature into space for much longer than radio has existed, and much more clearly.
Our radio signatures are rather weak beyond several dozen light years. Perhaps even too weak to pick up no matter how advanced the technology. But we have been polluting our atmosphere with unnatural chemicals since the beginning of the industrial revaluation. And that techno signature will be obvious to anyone able to examine Earth atmosphere with a spectroscope.
As far as we can tell bio-signatures that our planet has been giving off for hundreds of millions of years are quite rare so even before we started getting vertebrates this planet would have been of some interest at least. The idea that aliens advanced enough to effect us somehow missed the obvious life signs here and then neglected to mark us out for further study or as a place where intelligence might arise seems ludicrous to me. It would be different if we discover that earth like worlds are a dime a dozen, but current models don't fit that.
How can the wow signal be interference if it was at least from half way to the moon ?
Hey JMG, how about the currently on-going cosmologists' discussion related to data from JWST that allegedly contradicts both Space expansion and Big Bang theories?
Will be covering that this upcoming week.
@@EventHorizonShow awesome!!
The Distance of the universe is beyond imagination. But I believe that we would be egotistical to believe that we are the only intelligence to exist in these unimaginable distances
The expanse of time is equally beyond imagination -- a sufficiently ancient civilization, with enough of a "head start", could already have crossed Cosmic distances
Speculation is fun, but it's very good to hear from somebody who's actually doing the work.
Yeah... The good work of planting baseballs. 🤦
thankssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss. i never miss a video!!!!!!!!!!!!!! amazinggggggggggggggg channel !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you didnt mention hyperspace bypass
Was wondering why I'd not seen a release from you john,. I'd been unsubscribed, again!
Thanks for the release john1