Learn How OVERPLAYING Strong Hands Costs You BIG!
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- In this video, we'll discuss how overplaying strong hands can actually hurt your poker game and cost you big in the long run. The caller is playing 2/5 and barrels without consideration of the opponents' range from the small blind. He proceeds to bet without asking himself "what hands can call this much aggression that he can beat?". Bart explains why he would slow down and always check back river in this configuration after this action and discusses valuable poker cash game tips.
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0:00 - Intro
1:40 - Preflop
3:55 - Flop
8:36 - Turn
10:58 - River
12:16 - Hero Decision
14:00 - Reveal
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At river it's important to put it all together, these big bets gone wrong can dramatically affect your overall win rate so you've got to get your river action dialed in. The opponent flat called from SB pre, led flop in a 4 way pot, and called a big turn bet. Do you see how this river jam is a clear overplay given this cumulative information? What hand is the river all in bet targeting?
Well, there shouldn't be any fold equity (and if you think there is fold equity here, say from KT, then there's no value from K7 or worse, let alone Jx)...so, how often is hero called by a worse hand vs better. 21 combos of kings beat K9, and 20 don't (3 tie). And of those 20 I doubt all make it to the flop, let alone the river - if you assume that for K8 and worse it's only the suited clubs that are in there, now it's 17-5 that beat you. Do those low Kings even get to the river...and do they call this bet? Not to mention 3 combos of JJ beat you (if AKcc played this way, JJ might too). You really have to be convinced a chunk of weak kings, plus AJ/A8/A5 all make it to the river AND call this bet, otherwise the bet on its face loses money.
In my experience, people 3 bet preflop WAY less than they should live. I see AK flat called a ton at lower stakes.
overall you are right, people dont 3bet enough, but theoretically its completely fine to flat AKo from middle and late position facing a RFI at 100BBs , and deeper than that flatting becomes the main line for playing AKo anywhere but early position. A rare situation where fish natural instinct to play passive is actually theoretically sound
To a raise above 3bb i try to call/raise about 50 percent of the time depending on my position
I play at somewhere where it is VERY common for many of the players to have exactly 0 3bet range. Doesnt even matter if they have AA/KK they will not ever 3bet. So you can never comfortably rule out premium hands completely. Also a high percentage of players like SB in this hand will never lead unless they have the nuts. I am very cautious when a player who is very passive and never 3bets or raises suddenly donks out, even if it is only 25. I would not even raise flop here. Ive seen it too often where these type of players will check call all kinds of garbage but as soon as they take the betting lead alarm bells should go off. It is extremely easy to play against. I watched a lady yesterday who made the nut flush on the river check back in position. She got out some chips to bet then looked at the other player and checked back. She was absolutely not colluding, just an old lady that wanted to chat w people and hopefully check call her way into a high hand at some point. And theres a lot of people like her
once he calls the flop raise I'm shutting it down for pot control
He said a few times that he showed a bluff earlier and this affected his play. It obviously affected the hand, but not the way he thought. The small blind was trapping from the very beginning and counting on the aggression, but he was also scared. The hero probably feels like a maniac to the villain. If the villain had a Jack, he would not have bet/called the flop and he would never call the river allin. This is game theory disaster on the river and probably the turn too.
Yeah I thought that. Caller was acting like him showing a bluff earlier and having a maniacal table image meant villain could be light.
But people don’t donk bet with medium strength hands or draws into maniacs, because those hands don’t want to get raised. They donk with strong holdings hoping the maniac will be unable to resist the temptation to raise.
On the river, SB either had busted draws or better trips / full houses. The river jam achieved nothing except valuing hero himself… Unless hero wanted to bluff off better trips. But it would be quite ambitious.
I've seen this same hand call many times with a jack, or a lower pocket pair because they think it's a bluff
I see so many people get value owned from this type of scenario. Ive had it happen a couple of times myself. A great analysis and reminder.
Typcial OMC nit move flatting in the SB with AK then just Donk leading when they smash trips such a horrible play all around, then tanking with it on the end
Always great content Bart
love all your episodes this format is one of a kind!
Getting close to 100k subscribers Bart! Personally I think you should have been 100k, but I'm super stoked that it's around the corner.
Great vid Bart!
Hey Bart. Played with you the other day, it was pleasure.
Feels like the turn bet was way too big for many reasons. And that’s when everything goes out of control.
Jamming the river is also crazy, it’s always a check there. Not getting value from anything besides maybe a strong jack and even that is a stretch
I live 17 mins from encore and I almost went there today to play 1/3 but after watching your videos criticizing them I did a little research’s and decided to play micro stakes on pokerrr2 and chased out up 150 so thank you
I would like to learn more about the preflop decision after a limp. With K9o in the CO, and without information about the other players, I would tend not to open raise, since there are three more players behind. Now here on BTN with a single limp, there are also three players left to reply to my raise, and I would again consider to fold instead. I get it that on the button I am certain to be in position, and it makes a difference. But is that enough to tip the scales? Or is there something else I need to consider?
The hero jamming on the river is just turning trips into a bluff in a sport where the villain's value hands are never folding.
This hand is such a good example of what I've said plenty of times about Bart sometimes overestimating the competence of people at 2/5. The SB literally couldn't have played this hand worse. It's wild.
And yet, it worked out just fine.
yeah, bart calls out sb for tanking, but hero absolutely has full houses in his range. if they didn't have any history or hero has tighter image, sb potentially folds.
@@EllieBanks333 all it took was a massive cooler and the hero overplaying his hand! Well done, SB.
@@wfchannel4673 that would be such a wildly awful fold if you got here that way... granted only a terrible player would ever get here this way in the first place.
really?
8:46 since 8 is a brick, then why is it a bet on turn good option?
K9 might be my least favorite hand in poker. It loses with trips (and even straights or flushes) way too often.
Definitely NOT my least favorite hand, but it’s a hand in which other people over-play and over-value, and it’s a hand which has a lot of reverse implied odds; for the reasons you said.
@@supersmoo7377 haha yes least favorite might have been a bit dramatic when I wrote that. K9s can be pretty fun
Do solvers approve any of this K9 off action throughout the hand?
In solver land the cutoff limp is meant to have a frequent and polar limp-3bet range but against live players they have way too weak of a range and always limp then call or fold so it isn't good in theory to raise k9o pre but in practise it is for sure
Im checking back this river vs most opponents. There are some stations you will have to value bet this river against.
There is no station that is this bad
@@pedro.gandra you're in the wrong games.
I think the flop raise and turn bet if a bit smaller is fine actually. Definitely check back the river.
Still learning poker, why is it a standard check back river situation?
Yup. Biggest mistake was not checking back on the river. Others were small mistakes but pretty standard.
After the tune call K9 was toast, right?
Pausing this after the river blank and before the hero's action. I agree 100% with Bart on the river check. There's very little hands you get value from here. I can't imagine a J calls anything other than a tiny bet.
Edit: I do understand the hero's thinking especially taking into account he's been aggressive and showed a big bluff. Shoving is very polarizing.
yeah, there are so many big draws that missed and can't call that you're already ahead of so no point betting.
I could imagine, if you have a very bluffy image, players calling you down on the river with a Jack.
But I don’t think a jack leads out on the flop into an aggro player. With Jx on this flop oop against a maniac you’re just hoping to get to showdown vs his many bluffs.
Hero overplayed his hand so much that it looked so strong, so villain was almost folding the „nuts“
I’d always 3-bet AK in this spot preflop so I couldn’t get here like this. But if I somehow misclicked preflop and just flatted I’d obviously quickly call the river but I’d be a bit worried.
Hero can have 6 combos of KJo and JJ on the flop. And I wouldn’t be expecting him to so grossly overvalue KT or K9 like this. So you’re basically hoping it’s someone going thin with KQ or a bluff.
Well, I guess some people don't pay any attention to kickers. I thought the flop raise was ill advised. Donk bets, especially first to act multiway, are usually strong. They most often represent someone who does not want it to check through. Going from 25 to 130 is simply a clear mistake. As Bart mentions, when the SB/Donker calls this raise with the BB still active behind him it shows a lot of strength. One nice thing about hero's hand is that if we are up against a combo draw like QTss, a 9 gives hero a boat [although the 9 of spades would be pretty sick]. That said, after the flop action I seriously question how often hero has the best hand. Going almost pot on turn was a massive over-play. Betting any amount, much less jamming, the river was total insanity.
Side note, if hero was "getting hit with the deck", why isn't he deeper?
Agree with you on the donk, especially if villain has been showing bluffs and has a maniacal image.
Sometimes people will donk draws hoping for folds or mid strength holdings to “see where they’re at”. But vs an aggro player you’re not going to do that because they’ll just raise you and put you in a hellish spot,
So if you’ve been running the table over and suddenly someone donk bets into you, it’s time to be afraid.
If KQ chops some, sometimes wins vs KT, shouldn't it be a check given KJ could be in there give hero is quoted to be aggressive and has raised flop the bet? Seems only AK is a bet at the end.
The fact that villain even took a minute on the river to call with AK underscores that hero made a serious mistake betting K9 on the river. Villain never would have called with Jx and would also probably never even call preflop with a worse K (i.e. K7, K6, K4, K3, K2).
The only reason I would tank with AKs as the villain in this situation is if I was worried about pocket pairs that hit hidden sets for a boat.
I play at bestbet in Jacksonville and there are a lot of people will limp call a raise with k3s 100% of the time..and some people will limp call raises with AK.
People that limp call super premiums drive me crazy.
@@wesleykorisky8600 its a good balance to sometimes limp with big hands but only if ur at a nitty table. If ur at a maniac table always raise ur premiums.
I lost yesterday to people calling up to 5xbb preflop with 94 suited and 79 off suit. They’ll literally play almost any two cards. Then of course the board will flop K94 and brick out. Yeah, you want to be in this game but my bankroll isn’t as deep as their luck.
I play in a place like that too
I made this exact comment before I read yours!
12:17 river all-in is a lose/lose action. Not a single $$ win this can generate (haven't seen the outcome).
.
_EDITS_ Credits to the caller. He was honest about the hand progression, called to learn.
TIL Wolfgang is a CLP subscriber…
Any pair that doesn't believe him calls
Easy check back when he called the $300
Villain is probably tanking on the river precisely because hero overplayed the hand. Villain is likely worried that hero has KJ.
To make it work your opponent must be tilted or u have to have mega aggro image
Size should be 180 on turn, and a Check back on river.
I don’t play much cash but auto opening K9 on the button seems like burning money
K9o is always a standard open on the button in cash. I can’t find a single preflop chart that says to fold it.
interesting how no one even mentioned the possibility that the sb was calling with KJ, as far as the tanking after the river, it seems like now days everyone thinks they are auditioning for the best dramatic poker player academy award, drives me nuts to sit there and wait while some idiot goes through he pretend routine for a few minutes just to end up folding the hand he/she was going to fold all along...
Relax dude 😂
Bart: "How many players are calling with K4 suited from the small blind?"
Me: Every single player in Jacksonville Best Bet!!
When the caller showa that much sign of strenght by calling pot size bet after a check raise if he has a better hand he ll call the river and youll lose, if he has weaker hand you wont get him to call on the river.
Dont do all in just to protect your lack of sight or your fear to get beaten. Definitely a check back was the best idea. Pot was already huge and you already saw so much strenght from him
If he thought he would catch you bluffing what would be the point going all in, getting paid by Ace high ? Why this obsession to make fold a weaker hand when you re gonna beat it at the showdown
I thought a nit roll at first too, but then again villain has to consider KJ or some goofy K8. I don't think AK is a slam dunk.
Or JJ.
Actually mad that defending is this wide
Vilain did not 3 bet pre, donked bet flop, did not shove the river and had to think about calling.... 😂 dont worry, you'll get your money back.
I love how people say "the big blind can have K8 or K2",, the big blind can have anything ,, any player from any position can I have any two cards ranging from 27o to AA.... limp pot, min raise 3bet , 4bet, whatever.... everyone plays different, not everyone follows GTO charts and solvers
Oh yeah 27o totally gets past the flop here. You solved poker bro. It's 50 50 you win or you lose. I can't imagine how passively you play
If its a tourist or a rich maniac then you are completely right. But if its a reg than it just cant be the case because if you play really like that you life earnings will be gone in about 300 hands
Nit Roll😆😆😆
12:18
Why raise K9o if the cutoff could have better Kx and you are putting more money in the pot when 2 player yet to act with the high rake , I just want to understand why it’s profitable
K9 is probably similar EV to KQ considering the blockers, where K9 blocks bluffs and Q blocks jq, q8. I think the analysis is pretty bad here, because villian's range is merged, and while he can have a better king he can also have worse king/jack. I don't think shoving is the play, but I think its better than checking. I think I would block bet for these weird holdings, and fold to reraise shove
I really needed a chuckle. Thank you.
I guess you have pretty rational explaination to why he is right, and you are not just a copy cat monkey of a subpar player@@EllieBanks333
I’m still on the turn but this screams KQ
Really weird donk from SB with the AK. Probably a very bad player. Losing this much to a fish when you have the betting lead is unforgivable. The river is 100% a check, even with KQ I would only put out a super small bet to induce raises from busted draws and random calls from JX. With K9 you can never bet though.
You do realize KQ beats only KT in relation to K9 right?
@@EllieBanks333 KQ ties and blocks KQ. Beats KT, beats and unblocks K9. Which are all possible in this spot. Your equity is A LOT bigger with KQ.
@@pedro.gandra KQ blocks KQ. With 9 of 52 cards in play, the board is KKJ & hero holds K9. Hero knows the location of 3 out of 4 kings. If hero held KQ in the same spot, he knows the location of 1 out of 4 queens. If hero blocks a queen, then how does anyone have a king here?
This hand was absolutely atrociously handled on the river and I don't blame villian for seemingly nit rolling. From Villians perspective, it EASILY looks like hero has exactly JJ OR KJ that's going for maximum value against Villian's holdings which based on the call on the turn, is indicative of Kx.
How caller can be so dumb to not realize the appropriate response when you BET POT then get called is mind boggling.
I want these idiots in my game.
If you had been listening, he well explained his reasoning here.