I’m a new Linux user, I installed Linux on my PC last weekend! I got fed up with Microsoft’s bs so I’m trying Linux to see how much of my workflow can be brought over to Linux.
Welcome to the Penguin's Clubhouse! We hope you have plenty of fun here, just ignore the mildly toxic drunken penguins! Take their insults with a sprinkle of snow!
You're exactly the type of newbie the Linux community needs - someone that just gets on and does it, rather than expecting someone else to do the hard work and deliver their precise Linux requirements to them "on a silver platter". I genuinely wish you every success in your Linux journey.
1:55 Adding to this, Windows 11's 24H2 (November 2024) build went and bricked a LOT of systems, including my $1500 ASUS gaming laptop, that I was able to (somehow) rescue from the brink. Yet even after thoroughly dusting out the inside and even reapplying (high end) thermal paste, it still idles ~10 to 15 degrees hotter than it did before that update.
5:22 I would prefer Linux without major corporate backing, but unfortunately, if market share is to grow, corporations will be involved. If the possibility for profit exists, there will be no stopping corporate interests. I agree with you DT. Community is what makes Linux great. A corporation will never create the environment that a community-based distro is capable of producing.
I think we would be lucky if we get 7% of the desktop market; but you might be right, hopefully 10%. The big problem is creating that Linux install USB thumb drive, many people might not feel confident and scared to do this. It would be good if computer stores have an option to wave the Windows OEM fee and replace it with a Linux install with a discount so their overall computer cost will be lower without Windows. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year too, your channel did a great job this year, thank you.
I personally could care less what the desktop share is. I've been using Linux since 1996 and as my full-time OS when support for Windows 7 ended - 4% or 94% desktop share would change nothing as to how I use it.
I use macos and linux. Macos is rock solid and reliable , certainly has its uses, but linux is very fun to play around with. I use linux coz its fun, and i enjoy learning about how it works. Linux put the fun back into computers for me , linux is so vast you can never get bored of it
We don't need a KDE Recall. Keep that AI sh*t out of our distros. Also, more corporate influence at the expense of traditional community influence is a terrible thought, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me. After all, this has been the trend for years. Other than the fact that modern (post-2.0) GNOME just sucks, this is also one reason I will run literally just about *any* desktop environment that is *not* GNOME. IMO it just feels like it has too much corporate influence. The good thing is, if this does get too bad to where it causes problems, there are alternatives around. Linux is not the only open source family of operating systems around. There are always the BSDs, and recently FreeBSD was in the news for announcing that they intend to put a stronger focus on laptop hardware than they have in the past, which is a clear sign that they are trying to improve their system in ways that could help them gain OS share in the future through better hardware support in general.
freebsh for advanced techies which i am still not and i am not interestes in a slow moving os ... so if the linux woke/ai/evil corporation stuff situation get worse i am going back to Windows (by that i mean delete my linux partition and use only windows) ....
People being aware of Linux is growing fast, the more people know about Linux being an Alternative to Windows and MAC the faster we can get to the 10% market share. ...We all can help promote Linux and install Linux for people that are not tech savvy. ..Go Linux Go!!
Even for entertainment I could see a lot more people adopting Linux. For example, I've been setting up a home entertainment center with a Dolby 5.1 Receiver w/ a TV and an old desktop I had sitting around. The PC had Windows 10 on it so I decided to try and use it as is, but after a LOT of tinkering, surround sound just would not work. I fired up a Linux Mint live usb and the 5.1 system worked right out of the box! Just a few years ago I remember saying "I'd use Linux, but Windows JUST WORKS." Now, the tides have turned the other way!
I think Linux desktop market share about 7-8% by the end of next year. Of course if it hits 10%, many thing needs to go right, or Microsoft need to mess up windows pretty bad one way or the other, recall, ads or some sorts of controversy.
I recently switched to NixOS, so far I'm loving it. About two days now and I've manged to get the config working to the point that I can load my hyprland, waybar etc all preconfigured into a fresh format no issues. It's pretty cool. Not yet into flakes etc.
We need an offline-first, local-first, community-first, redistribute, own-the-end-nods mentality and culture spread in the FOSS community, we need more *local* hacker spaces to spread hacker culture, we need to integrate overlay networks like I2P, Tor, etc as the *community clouds* they are and use them that way especially for discovery and notifications, I won't mind well tested and well understood AI in the command line or desktop, but if you can't explain or even understand the inner workings of your AI I'm not going to touch it with a ten-foot pole
Corporations are not in the habit of doing what's best for you; only their stockholders. When Linux gets to 10%+ of OS users, you can bet they're gonna be hot to buy Arch or Debian. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you, too!
I look at Google more or less the same way I look at Walmart. My mom worked for a union grocery store and we still shopped there. That's not to say I want them having a massive amount of influence on the direction of the Linux desktop but we can acknowledge the good things that corporations have contributed to open source while calling them out when they need to be called out.
I have been using immutable distro since late summer and I really like it. I am not a full noob I have basic knowledge of linux and have been using it since 2007, but I can see how this kind of "maintenance free" approach can attract more people than before from Windows, not at least because gaming with windows games is so effortless in Linux nowadays.
Immutable is becoming the talk. Bazzite has gained traction for being solid and supporting handheld PCs before valve even started supporting other devices with steam os. Right now, steams os 3 is still not available officially anywhere outside of the steam deck
With Microshaft helping with their invasiveness and shafting their ardent supporters, we should be able to get to the 10% usage. It would be great to find a way to decentralise support (financial) for Linux devs so it can stay less dependent of corporate interests.
Hey DT, I was wondering about your DT OS. From watching your videos over the years I tried Xmonad and loved using it.. The only issues I had was how easy it was to break it lol. Just standard updates where breaking it often and as much as I loved it I am not the best using terminal and stuff and trying to fix it was a real pain lol. I would like to try your DT OS and was wondering if you have any auto fall back systems included that takes snapshots when doing updates and stuff.. And maybe you could do a newer video sometime showcasing your DT OS again and showing people like me how to fix broken systems from updates :).. Also do you have any plans on maybe releasing a second version of DT OS that has your Q Tile work flow all installed on it instead of Xmonad? Thanks and happy holidays :).
Great video, I think your predictions are possible, the only one that I disagree is the AI on desktop environments. I have been lurking on the Gnome matrix and I think is unlikely that they will add AI functionality by next year, right now it feels like the FOSS community is not super receptive to this type of change, but want the efforts focused on some basics that still need to be tackled.
Biggest thing hurting linux is the community conduct boards, getting rid of the core devs for dumb things. Lack of good coders is plaguing the new release structure as well, but that is honestly all coding these days. Throw more cpu at it seems to be the current thought over write better code...
I think we'll see more atomic distros indeed. Baazite is fantastic and I adopted it as main desktop, while I was on debian testing for 24 years. Fedora really needs to do something about their installer though... it's horrible.
i like immutable distros as an option i don't like not being able to change stuff like how i cant add kvantum on my steamdeck so as an option for people who want safe "i cant delete system 32" files like on windows its a win, the market share of windows was 2%ish when i joined and its more than doubled, i think its amazing and exciting, i love foss software i still use proprietary when i need something, steam/discord/games, but i love the growth of options in foss and appreciate it
i dont see corporations like canonical as a problem, but other corporations doing what redhat does is a major threat to FOSS. judging by the amount of AI commercials ive seen from IBM, i dont see them being interested in linux as much as AI. Nvidia could help with drivers with linux or could be a bad thing.
Linux is growing but I think 5-7% is realtistic. I use Linux (Kubuntu) on and off since SUSE Linux 6.0 (KDE 2), and permanently since 2020. I wont go back to Windows. I love Linux. I have no issues if a corp makes its own distro, as long as they dont destroy the big distros.
Gaming was the only thing keeping many users on Windows. Now most games work on Linux, so switching is an obvious decision. Also, many of the Windows 10 machines out there will be obsolete soon, so many will also switch to Linux to keep those machines current.
I would add another prediction: The hard fork of the Linux Kernel into two: The one we know now, which will be affected negatively as you said by the corporations and, in some extent influenced by that, the free libre community starting a free libre out of the grid fork of the current linux kernel.
I would love to see marketshare double I think we'll be lucky to see 1/2 that much growth. Immutable. There are good use cases for it. Especially for corporations So that's a good thing
going from 1,5% to 4,5 in 15 years I would not say it is huge. But even if, it is a different league tripling 1,5% and a whole different league doubling or tripling 4,5%. Regarding the driving force, the spiritual leader are the community , but the money all those things rely upon are from corporations. So it does not have to be one or the other , but corporation pouring money is needed
I like making Linux drivers and testing them and playing around with the filesystem but I can’t do that on immutable Linux distros so that why I hate them… also everything in this world requires some sort of money behind it and community’s don’t pay much.
I agree with all of your predictions, except I think that Linux desktop growth is going to stagnate in 2025. While Linux continues to gain traction in certain niches, like development and privacy-focused users, I believe its growth will hit a plateau for a couple of reasons. First, the desktop market is still dominated by Windows and macOS, which remain the default for most users. Without a major push from hardware vendors or a big name behind a Linux distribution, mainstream adoption will likely remain minimal. The Steam Deck caused a spike in the numbers, but is it going to continue forward the momentum, I am skeptical on that idea. Second, the challenges of Linux on the desktop-like inconsistent support for proprietary software, gaming (even with strides like Proton), and hardware compatibility-still persist. While these areas are improving, they're not quite at the level to convince average users to make the switch. Bonus, with the hard push of developers like those with Elementary OS, who decide to make distros political in nature. I don't think those values align with a majority of people and will cause current users to jump ship to other distros. But because this issue is so wide spread, there might not be a ship to jump to before long, without going back to Windows or macOS
Agreed, I think the peaks of market share increase will coincide with whenever a Windows version goes EOL (like Win 10), but other than that, probably plateau.
Re: Corporations You aren't taking into account how much they have added to the FOSS universe already. Example: The software iSCSI adapter which is standard in Linux distros (a fork of it is in VMware ESXi) came from RedHat. They paid devs to write and fix it. it's an outstanding adapter that allows Linux to leverage much more economical storage. Especially compared with the cost of Fibre Channel adapters and storage. There are many many more examples of this. So for me it's a positive and I hope you are right.
Linux desktop use will most likely still slowly increase at its current 2024 rate for most of 2025 but I expect a decent bump up in Oct when Win10 hits EOL. I have multiple friends who have already installed Linux in a dual boot config but still use Win10 as their primary but once Win10 reaches EOL then they will all be switching to Linux as their primary since none of their PCs support Win11.
The AI stuff will always be a plugin/optional package. GIMP already has plenty of Stable Diffusion plugins, Krita does too. Audacity has plugins for music generation too. If it stays like that, I'm all for it, but I don't want my KDE to have that crap built in.
Regarding AI predictions, I can assure you most of us think they are shit and dont actually have any concrete real word use case atleast on desktop side except rising energy costs which as is, is already expensive
AI as messy as it can be is not going away at this point. best make use of and understand it even if ya dislike it. a skill set and understanding thats better to have then not.
I agree A.I. is way over hyped b/c that's where the money is. Investors are flocking to it like they did when you said "Internet" years ago. When the internet first started it was pretty terrible by today's standard. A.I. will get better and I don't think it's going away any time soon. For me that's another reason to use Linux. even if they add it, you can remove it or pick another distro that doesn't or using something like NIX or Gentoo to 100% make it your own
All the Alphabet companies need your processing power and electricity to help them spy on you. Bill Gates joined the Illuminati after that anti-monopoly lawsuit against Microsoft when they released Internet Shit Imploder for free on their OSes resulting in the death of Netscape. Superfetch was a precursor to AI spy that is proliferating now. All your files and terms were neatly indexed constantly grinding your HDD bearings so that Alphabet Co can more efficiently keep tabs on you. Now the MS AI is integrated into the Explorer for God's sake. They will keep trying to get their hooks into the Linux eco-system. They won't be able to stop people from removing these processes in Linux. That is the beauty of POSIX and FOSS: You can't hide anything and if you try it will draw a great deal of attention and backlash. However, seeing as that you can't read the intentions of a Neural Net, they can entice you into a shiny AI assistant that is in fact a Trojan. God help us all.
"Do one thing. Do it well." This is a large part of the original Unix philosophy, and I think its a core value we need to maintain with open source projects. So called "AI" is antithetical to this. It does nothing well, and many things badly. There will certainly be a large element of informed users who will want a desktop experience free from any monitoring, suggestions, or so called co-pilots of any kind. And I've no doubt there will continue to be options for running all flavors of Linux without any AI garbage. Windows 11 is a steaming pile largely because of this nonsense, lets not put that stench of failure on Linux or its primary desktop flavors.
had to pause to comment on the corpo involvement. I can understand how it MIGHT be a good thing, think adobe products maybe ms office, and other proprietary software thats stuck on Windows. those being brought over would also help MAJORLY with Desktop Linux being better supported. However, i fear the involvement could lead to a distro or 3 becoming "windows like" and not in a good way like mint or zorin. But in a "were here to get your data, and shove ads in your face" way if not worse.
My five predictions for Linux in 2025: 1. I will still be using Gentoo for everything in my 22nd year of using it. 2. Arch will still be poor man's Gentoo. 3. Reddit and social media poseurs will still be whining about having to use the command line whilst simultaneously believing they are Linux experts just because they own a Steam Deck. 4. Lazy people will still be posting requests here asking you to make videos on topics that are already covered in great detail in videos on other channels - they just can't be bothered to search for them. 5. The majority of Raspberry Pi "Can I have a step-by-step video for anything I need to do on a Pi" users will still be entirely clueless if I gave them each an Orange Pi or lesser-known SBC and said "put Linux on it".
Reddit is one giant circlejerk. It's people looking for validation of their shitty opinions. None of that waffle is worth anything. Also good on you for using Gentoo, I wish I had the time/balls to spend setting it up.
@@cateatingbread That's your choice, I am not going to criticise anyone for not using Gentoo - but it appeals to my "engineer's brain and ultimately I end up running the same distro on everything from a Raspberry Pi Zero to a multi CPU Xeon server.
2025 The year of the beginning fall of Microshit, the year Apple will gain more mindless customers and the year Linux distros will see a substantial increase in new users
Immutable means the OS system directories are unchangeable; so all you can change is within your HOME directory. I'm not sure I like this, but then again makes your system more stable. Bazzite OS for gaming is one example.
I don't get why people still hate AI. Yes it gained its name by getting shoved into your faces all the time and being hated at the same level as crypto, but they're both just getting misused. And computers will sooner or later all get NPUs, so everything on Linux just ignoring the chip wouldn't be very appealing to end users. We'll need to adapt someday to make use of it. The entire problem with AI is it being in the cloud most of the times. So only God knows what is happening with your information on the server side. Knowing how privacy-preserving the Linux community is, they'll only make completely local LLMs. While I don't think GNOME will (ever) implement AI, I'm pretty sure KDE will make something like KDE Assistant for Plasma. The best way of delivering it would be recommending it in the Welcome page (or distribution installer), make it clear that it's completely optional and give user the choice. AI features could be toggled in the settings, as well as permissions for each. For example, should it ever connect to the internet, what personal folders it can access, what areas to use it in, etc. All these permissions shouldn't be given aoutomatically - only by user's choice.
Would appreciate Microsoft banned. Google would be appreciated IF they BROUGHT BACK and adhered to their OG motto of "Don't be evil." Meta and Twitter should be avoided altogether. Amazon could easily get back into my good graces. However, sadly, they probably won't 😢 IBM, I'm still on the fence. Somehow, they have made up with Microsoft, and they are poorly mimicking their way of operating.
I think AI is going to be a large factor in driving the increased rise of free and open-source software. First because AI is going to be much more capable of writing code. By the end of 2025 and into the foreseeable future it's only going to get better at writing software. The other way in which AI increases free and open-source software is that agentic AIs will become the primary method in which pre-release software is alpha and beta tested. Agentic AI will run hundreds of thousands if not millions of hours (in human hours) for every release with the result that the software will be for all practical purposes flawless. Bug bounties will be a thing of the past. I'm a big fan of immutable/atomic distros. Running Universal Blue's Bluefin right now. Universal Blue's dev editions of Bluefin and Aurora come with Ollama chatbot pre-installed on those images.
Microsoft: Hard ware requirements, Spyware copilot, and being band in some country's but world wide still around 1% Honestly Linux user's are copping, what else could happen to make user switch? A "mass virus that crashes planes" in most average people minds CrowdStrike was that.
Big reason why its going to eventually beat all other OSs is because learning curve and troubleshooting just became very easy. What took me hours before takes me a couple of minutes today with AI.
Today 2024 you dont need to have windows linux and android it's more stable for me i use only linux and android on my phone i hate windows always hate windows.
@@frankhuurman3955 Yea Idk. I've heard that during the Vista era, the amount of Linux users were at its peak. And some say it was around 10%. Not sure how true that really is though.
I’m a new Linux user, I installed Linux on my PC last weekend! I got fed up with Microsoft’s bs so I’m trying Linux to see how much of my workflow can be brought over to Linux.
welcome to the cult of the penguin I hope your path is insightful and easy. and fun clearly :3
GLHF
I switched to Void Linux 2 weeks ago. I like it
Welcome to the Penguin's Clubhouse!
We hope you have plenty of fun here, just ignore the mildly toxic drunken penguins! Take their insults with a sprinkle of snow!
You're exactly the type of newbie the Linux community needs - someone that just gets on and does it, rather than expecting someone else to do the hard work and deliver their precise Linux requirements to them "on a silver platter".
I genuinely wish you every success in your Linux journey.
I hope you are right about the user base doubling but 10% in 2025 sounds crazy to me.
Yeah. I think if we're lucky, we'll reach 6%
@@catto-from-heaven 6% seems most realistic to me. 10% would be insane, where would these people even come from, right?
@NeuralNine big fan
Merry Christmas and ALL the best for 2025 .
I have finally made the full switch to Linux, gaming is at a place i am happy with finally
1:55 Adding to this, Windows 11's 24H2 (November 2024) build went and bricked a LOT of systems, including my $1500 ASUS gaming laptop, that I was able to (somehow) rescue from the brink. Yet even after thoroughly dusting out the inside and even reapplying (high end) thermal paste, it still idles ~10 to 15 degrees hotter than it did before that update.
5:14 remember who's in Linux Foundation board.
Linux gaming is going to make huge leaps. SteamOS, Bazzite, ChimeraOS, and Playtron are making it work better and more accessible.
5:22 I would prefer Linux without major corporate backing, but unfortunately, if market share is to grow, corporations will be involved.
If the possibility for profit exists, there will be no stopping corporate interests.
I agree with you DT. Community is what makes Linux great. A corporation will never create the environment that a community-based distro is capable of producing.
I have no issue with having access to corporate software packages, like Creative Suite. But I would prefer the OS remain Community Based
I think we would be lucky if we get 7% of the desktop market; but you might be right, hopefully 10%. The big problem is creating that Linux install USB thumb drive, many people might not feel confident and scared to do this. It would be good if computer stores have an option to wave the Windows OEM fee and replace it with a Linux install with a discount so their overall computer cost will be lower without Windows. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year too, your channel did a great job this year, thank you.
we already at 10% if we consider crhome oss and unknow
Funny and sad thing is that Linux was packaged like this. I have not a clue why most Linux projects don’t have a retail version.
I personally could care less what the desktop share is. I've been using Linux since 1996 and as my full-time OS when support for Windows 7 ended - 4% or 94% desktop share would change nothing as to how I use it.
Looks i'm conservative with predicting 6% xd
@@RoboBabeXD Well Chrome OS is migrating to Android; I think I read this like a month ago.
Merry Christmas !
Merry Christmas TD
I use macos and linux. Macos is rock solid and reliable , certainly has its uses, but linux is very fun to play around with. I use linux coz its fun, and i enjoy learning about how it works. Linux put the fun back into computers for me , linux is so vast you can never get bored of it
We don't need a KDE Recall. Keep that AI sh*t out of our distros. Also, more corporate influence at the expense of traditional community influence is a terrible thought, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me. After all, this has been the trend for years. Other than the fact that modern (post-2.0) GNOME just sucks, this is also one reason I will run literally just about *any* desktop environment that is *not* GNOME. IMO it just feels like it has too much corporate influence.
The good thing is, if this does get too bad to where it causes problems, there are alternatives around. Linux is not the only open source family of operating systems around. There are always the BSDs, and recently FreeBSD was in the news for announcing that they intend to put a stronger focus on laptop hardware than they have in the past, which is a clear sign that they are trying to improve their system in ways that could help them gain OS share in the future through better hardware support in general.
freebsh for advanced techies which i am still not and i am not interestes in a slow moving os ... so if the linux woke/ai/evil corporation stuff situation get worse i am going back to Windows (by that i mean delete my linux partition and use only windows) ....
Agreed I don't like AI.
People being aware of Linux is growing fast, the more people know about Linux being an Alternative to Windows and MAC the faster we can get to the 10% market share. ...We all can help promote Linux and install Linux for people that are not tech savvy. ..Go Linux Go!!
Even for entertainment I could see a lot more people adopting Linux. For example, I've been setting up a home entertainment center with a Dolby 5.1 Receiver w/ a TV and an old desktop I had sitting around. The PC had Windows 10 on it so I decided to try and use it as is, but after a LOT of tinkering, surround sound just would not work. I fired up a Linux Mint live usb and the 5.1 system worked right out of the box! Just a few years ago I remember saying "I'd use Linux, but Windows JUST WORKS." Now, the tides have turned the other way!
Linux for the win! Happy holidays everyone
Immutable model it's going be way to go for many companies wanted to ship linux pre installed for everyday user that don't know linux very well.
You are absolutely right, the Immutable technology has come a long way. It would help the new users quite a lot.
I like your videos, as always. Keep going this way, have a happy Christmas and waiting for your next episode !
I think Linux desktop market share about 7-8% by the end of next year. Of course if it hits 10%, many thing needs to go right, or Microsoft need to mess up windows pretty bad one way or the other, recall, ads or some sorts of controversy.
Thanks for your great content, and Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you too! Greetings from Switzerland!
I recently switched to NixOS, so far I'm loving it. About two days now and I've manged to get the config working to the point that I can load my hyprland, waybar etc all preconfigured into a fresh format no issues.
It's pretty cool.
Not yet into flakes etc.
We need an offline-first, local-first, community-first, redistribute, own-the-end-nods mentality and culture spread in the FOSS community, we need more *local* hacker spaces to spread hacker culture, we need to integrate overlay networks like I2P, Tor, etc as the *community clouds* they are and use them that way especially for discovery and notifications, I won't mind well tested and well understood AI in the command line or desktop, but if you can't explain or even understand the inner workings of your AI I'm not going to touch it with a ten-foot pole
Very solid predictions, I could sign under all five.
5:25 - So if they can't beat Linux then they will simply annex it.
Corporations are not in the habit of doing what's best for you; only their stockholders. When Linux gets to 10%+ of OS users, you can bet they're gonna be hot to buy Arch or Debian.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you, too!
I look at Google more or less the same way I look at Walmart. My mom worked for a union grocery store and we still shopped there. That's not to say I want them having a massive amount of influence on the direction of the Linux desktop but we can acknowledge the good things that corporations have contributed to open source while calling them out when they need to be called out.
I have been using immutable distro since late summer and I really like it. I am not a full noob I have basic knowledge of linux and have been using it since 2007, but I can see how this kind of "maintenance free" approach can attract more people than before from Windows, not at least because gaming with windows games is so effortless in Linux nowadays.
Immutable is becoming the talk.
Bazzite has gained traction for being solid and supporting handheld PCs before valve even started supporting other devices with steam os. Right now, steams os 3 is still not available officially anywhere outside of the steam deck
With Microshaft helping with their invasiveness and shafting their ardent supporters, we should be able to get to the 10% usage.
It would be great to find a way to decentralise support (financial) for Linux devs so it can stay less dependent of corporate interests.
Hey DT, I was wondering about your DT OS. From watching your videos over the years I tried Xmonad and loved using it.. The only issues I had was how easy it was to break it lol. Just standard updates where breaking it often and as much as I loved it I am not the best using terminal and stuff and trying to fix it was a real pain lol. I would like to try your DT OS and was wondering if you have any auto fall back systems included that takes snapshots when doing updates and stuff.. And maybe you could do a newer video sometime showcasing your DT OS again and showing people like me how to fix broken systems from updates :).. Also do you have any plans on maybe releasing a second version of DT OS that has your Q Tile work flow all installed on it instead of Xmonad? Thanks and happy holidays :).
Great video, I think your predictions are possible, the only one that I disagree is the AI on desktop environments. I have been lurking on the Gnome matrix and I think is unlikely that they will add AI functionality by next year, right now it feels like the FOSS community is not super receptive to this type of change, but want the efforts focused on some basics that still need to be tackled.
Biggest thing hurting linux is the community conduct boards, getting rid of the core devs for dumb things. Lack of good coders is plaguing the new release structure as well, but that is honestly all coding these days. Throw more cpu at it seems to be the current thought over write better code...
Big Corporate involvement is behind this woke movement in Linux Software development. We need to stop it.
I think we'll see more atomic distros indeed. Baazite is fantastic and I adopted it as main desktop, while I was on debian testing for 24 years. Fedora really needs to do something about their installer though... it's horrible.
I don't see Microsoft and Google becoming more involved in Linux. Both companies seem more interested in Cloud computing and AI.
What does those cloud and ai servers run on?
i like immutable distros as an option i don't like not being able to change stuff like how i cant add kvantum on my steamdeck so as an option for people who want safe "i cant delete system 32" files like on windows its a win, the market share of windows was 2%ish when i joined and its more than doubled, i think its amazing and exciting, i love foss software i still use proprietary when i need something, steam/discord/games, but i love the growth of options in foss and appreciate it
i dont see corporations like canonical as a problem, but other corporations doing what redhat does is a major threat to FOSS. judging by the amount of AI commercials ive seen from IBM, i dont see them being interested in linux as much as AI. Nvidia could help with drivers with linux or could be a bad thing.
if I could have Grok in my terminal that'd be pretty cool
Linux is growing but I think 5-7% is realtistic.
I use Linux (Kubuntu) on and off since SUSE Linux 6.0 (KDE 2), and permanently since 2020. I wont go back to Windows. I love Linux.
I have no issues if a corp makes its own distro, as long as they dont destroy the big distros.
Here's my prediction: We're on the brink of a Linuxgate.
Gaming was the only thing keeping many users on Windows. Now most games work on Linux, so switching is an obvious decision. Also, many of the Windows 10 machines out there will be obsolete soon, so many will also switch to Linux to keep those machines current.
I just ordered a thinkpad on ebay and am switching to linux in 2025 because of the increased spyware and AI integration.
I'm guessing we will get 2% more market share (6%), 5% more (9%) if Steam Deck 2 comes out. That's my prediction.
I would add another prediction: The hard fork of the Linux Kernel into two: The one we know now, which will be affected negatively as you said by the corporations and, in some extent influenced by that, the free libre community starting a free libre out of the grid fork of the current linux kernel.
And where are you going to find all the people to work on it and the magic word, FUNDING!!!
I would love to see marketshare double I think we'll be lucky to see 1/2 that much growth. Immutable. There are good use cases for it. Especially for corporations So that's a good thing
going from 1,5% to 4,5 in 15 years I would not say it is huge. But even if, it is a different league tripling 1,5% and a whole different league doubling or tripling 4,5%.
Regarding the driving force, the spiritual leader are the community , but the money all those things rely upon are from corporations. So it does not have to be one or the other , but corporation pouring money is needed
I would love an immutable distro, but they just don't ship with the stuff I want (and that I can't easily switch out)
I have yet to see a single reason why incorporating self hosted AI into the desktop would be a bad thing.
Also, Merry Christmas.
I like making Linux drivers and testing them and playing around with the filesystem but I can’t do that on immutable Linux distros so that why I hate them… also everything in this world requires some sort of money behind it and community’s don’t pay much.
I agree with all of your predictions, except I think that Linux desktop growth is going to stagnate in 2025. While Linux continues to gain traction in certain niches, like development and privacy-focused users, I believe its growth will hit a plateau for a couple of reasons.
First, the desktop market is still dominated by Windows and macOS, which remain the default for most users. Without a major push from hardware vendors or a big name behind a Linux distribution, mainstream adoption will likely remain minimal. The Steam Deck caused a spike in the numbers, but is it going to continue forward the momentum, I am skeptical on that idea.
Second, the challenges of Linux on the desktop-like inconsistent support for proprietary software, gaming (even with strides like Proton), and hardware compatibility-still persist. While these areas are improving, they're not quite at the level to convince average users to make the switch.
Bonus, with the hard push of developers like those with Elementary OS, who decide to make distros political in nature. I don't think those values align with a majority of people and will cause current users to jump ship to other distros. But because this issue is so wide spread, there might not be a ship to jump to before long, without going back to Windows or macOS
Agreed, I think the peaks of market share increase will coincide with whenever a Windows version goes EOL (like Win 10), but other than that, probably plateau.
bsd
3:44 & 5:40; a big no !!! if that happen i will come back to windows (i am not joking, i am serious)!
Re: Corporations You aren't taking into account how much they have added to the FOSS universe already. Example: The software iSCSI adapter which is standard in Linux distros (a fork of it is in VMware ESXi) came from RedHat. They paid devs to write and fix it. it's an outstanding adapter that allows Linux to leverage much more economical storage. Especially compared with the cost of Fibre Channel adapters and storage. There are many many more examples of this. So for me it's a positive and I hope you are right.
Well... RedHat was (not so much anymore) an exception among corporations.
maybe explain what 'immutable' is
Linux desktop use will most likely still slowly increase at its current 2024 rate for most of 2025 but I expect a decent bump up in Oct when Win10 hits EOL. I have multiple friends who have already installed Linux in a dual boot config but still use Win10 as their primary but once Win10 reaches EOL then they will all be switching to Linux as their primary since none of their PCs support Win11.
The AI stuff will always be a plugin/optional package. GIMP already has plenty of Stable Diffusion plugins, Krita does too. Audacity has plugins for music generation too. If it stays like that, I'm all for it, but I don't want my KDE to have that crap built in.
Regarding AI predictions, I can assure you most of us think they are shit and dont actually have any concrete real word use case atleast on desktop side except rising energy costs which as is, is already expensive
Can't boot past GRUB on Snapdragon so stuck on Win.
I really don't care about "linux desktop usage". If i use it, I'm already happy 😂😂😂
is that a hhkb?
I don't want "A.I" BS in my distro. That bubble will collapse from the weight of its own contradictions soon enough.
if you don't get it, you don't get it. save your comment for the future to see how delusional this sounds
@@sniper_in_bush LOL! Sure thing. We'll see in the future which one of us is right about ChatGPT horseshit (spoiler alert: it'll be me).
AI as messy as it can be is not going away at this point. best make use of and understand it even if ya dislike it. a skill set and understanding thats better to have then not.
I agree A.I. is way over hyped b/c that's where the money is. Investors are flocking to it like they did when you said "Internet" years ago. When the internet first started it was pretty terrible by today's standard. A.I. will get better and I don't think it's going away any time soon. For me that's another reason to use Linux. even if they add it, you can remove it or pick another distro that doesn't or using something like NIX or Gentoo to 100% make it your own
All the Alphabet companies need your processing power and electricity to help them spy on you.
Bill Gates joined the Illuminati after that anti-monopoly lawsuit against Microsoft when they released Internet Shit Imploder for free on their OSes resulting in the death of Netscape. Superfetch was a precursor to AI spy that is proliferating now. All your files and terms were neatly indexed constantly grinding your HDD bearings so that Alphabet Co can more efficiently keep tabs on you. Now the MS AI is integrated into the Explorer for God's sake. They will keep trying to get their hooks into the Linux eco-system. They won't be able to stop people from removing these processes in Linux. That is the beauty of POSIX and FOSS: You can't hide anything and if you try it will draw a great deal of attention and backlash. However, seeing as that you can't read the intentions of a Neural Net, they can entice you into a shiny AI assistant that is in fact a Trojan. God help us all.
#2 What means 'immutable distribution' i.e. a distribution which doesn't change? No security updates? 🤔
#4 & #5 seems a contradiction to me...
Did you have 2024 predictions? xd
As soon my distro adds AI feature, I'm getting the heck outta there
why? does it bother you that your distro does filesystem maintenance by itself too?
@@octopusonfire100are you seriously comparing implementing AI features to filesystem maintenance?? How’s your ubuntu running today?
more politic bs, more tr00n drama to undermine foss projects, more ai, more money from google etc
"Do one thing. Do it well." This is a large part of the original Unix philosophy, and I think its a core value we need to maintain with open source projects. So called "AI" is antithetical to this. It does nothing well, and many things badly. There will certainly be a large element of informed users who will want a desktop experience free from any monitoring, suggestions, or so called co-pilots of any kind. And I've no doubt there will continue to be options for running all flavors of Linux without any AI garbage. Windows 11 is a steaming pile largely because of this nonsense, lets not put that stench of failure on Linux or its primary desktop flavors.
AI in GIMP? Maybe in 20 years!
XD 2025 year of linux, 2x marketshare, revolution XD linux is slow evolution, hopefully gonna have stable wayland on nvidia
had to pause to comment on the corpo involvement. I can understand how it MIGHT be a good thing, think adobe products maybe ms office, and other proprietary software thats stuck on Windows. those being brought over would also help MAJORLY with Desktop Linux being better supported. However, i fear the involvement could lead to a distro or 3 becoming "windows like" and not in a good way like mint or zorin. But in a "were here to get your data, and shove ads in your face" way if not worse.
My five predictions for Linux in 2025:
1. I will still be using Gentoo for everything in my 22nd year of using it.
2. Arch will still be poor man's Gentoo.
3. Reddit and social media poseurs will still be whining about having to use the command line whilst simultaneously believing they are Linux experts just because they own a Steam Deck.
4. Lazy people will still be posting requests here asking you to make videos on topics that are already covered in great detail in videos on other channels - they just can't be bothered to search for them.
5. The majority of Raspberry Pi "Can I have a step-by-step video for anything I need to do on a Pi" users will still be entirely clueless if I gave them each an Orange Pi or lesser-known SBC and said "put Linux on it".
Reddit is one giant circlejerk. It's people looking for validation of their shitty opinions. None of that waffle is worth anything.
Also good on you for using Gentoo, I wish I had the time/balls to spend setting it up.
@@cateatingbread That's your choice, I am not going to criticise anyone for not using Gentoo - but it appeals to my "engineer's brain and ultimately I end up running the same distro on everything from a Raspberry Pi Zero to a multi CPU Xeon server.
👍🏻
2025 The year of the beginning fall of Microshit, the year Apple will gain more mindless customers and the year Linux distros will see a substantial increase in new users
What is an "immutable" distribution? Can you give an example.
Immutable means the OS system directories are unchangeable; so all you can change is within your HOME directory. I'm not sure I like this, but then again makes your system more stable. Bazzite OS for gaming is one example.
I don't get why people still hate AI. Yes it gained its name by getting shoved into your faces all the time and being hated at the same level as crypto, but they're both just getting misused.
And computers will sooner or later all get NPUs, so everything on Linux just ignoring the chip wouldn't be very appealing to end users. We'll need to adapt someday to make use of it.
The entire problem with AI is it being in the cloud most of the times. So only God knows what is happening with your information on the server side. Knowing how privacy-preserving the Linux community is, they'll only make completely local LLMs. While I don't think GNOME will (ever) implement AI, I'm pretty sure KDE will make something like KDE Assistant for Plasma.
The best way of delivering it would be recommending it in the Welcome page (or distribution installer), make it clear that it's completely optional and give user the choice. AI features could be toggled in the settings, as well as permissions for each. For example, should it ever connect to the internet, what personal folders it can access, what areas to use it in, etc. All these permissions shouldn't be given aoutomatically - only by user's choice.
Would appreciate Microsoft banned. Google would be appreciated IF they BROUGHT BACK and adhered to their OG motto of "Don't be evil." Meta and Twitter should be avoided altogether. Amazon could easily get back into my good graces. However, sadly, they probably won't 😢 IBM, I'm still on the fence. Somehow, they have made up with Microsoft, and they are poorly mimicking their way of operating.
google was never "don't be evil" , yes they had that slogan but they never werent a "good"
I think AI is going to be a large factor in driving the increased rise of free and open-source software. First because AI is going to be much more capable of writing code. By the end of 2025 and into the foreseeable future it's only going to get better at writing software. The other way in which AI increases free and open-source software is that agentic AIs will become the primary method in which pre-release software is alpha and beta tested. Agentic AI will run hundreds of thousands if not millions of hours (in human hours) for every release with the result that the software will be for all practical purposes flawless. Bug bounties will be a thing of the past.
I'm a big fan of immutable/atomic distros. Running Universal Blue's Bluefin right now. Universal Blue's dev editions of Bluefin and Aurora come with Ollama chatbot pre-installed on those images.
Who is asking for immutable distros? Sysadmins? I don't get the appeal, no hate, just don't see the demand.
Really wish Linux videos were more about Linux and less about Microsoft.
Microsoft: Hard ware requirements, Spyware copilot, and being band in some country's but world wide still around 1%
Honestly Linux user's are copping, what else could happen to make user switch?
A "mass virus that crashes planes" in most average people minds CrowdStrike was that.
Great video, do you anticipate more adoption of NixOS in 2025? Either in desktop or production environments?
xD
Linux will not get 10% end of the year. Thats the harsh Truth
Big reason why its going to eventually beat all other OSs is because learning curve and troubleshooting just became very easy. What took me hours before takes me a couple of minutes today with AI.
I want nothing to do with so-called AI from corporations but if a proper, trustworthy organisation adds it, perhaps it could be fun and useful.
Today 2024 you dont need to have windows linux and android it's more stable for me i use only linux and android on my phone i hate windows always hate windows.
Already at 5%? Linux been at around 10% during the Windows Vista years. Now, Linux is at around 3%
Not correct, 2009 we were at 0.7%, Not Sure about 2007 but 10% is Just BS
where did you get 10%? I can only find numbers from 2009 onwards on statcounter and it starts at 0.64%.
@@frankhuurman3955 Yea Idk. I've heard that during the Vista era, the amount of Linux users were at its peak. And some say it was around 10%. Not sure how true that really is though.
Merry Christmas!