Myanmar's Military is Losing: What Happens Next?
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- Опубликовано: 5 фев 2024
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Three years ago, Myanmar's military overthrew the country's democratically elected government, ending a short-lived period of imperfect democracy, and starting a full-scale civil war. So, what's been happening in Myanmar, and can the country break apart?
Is Myanmar's Civil War at a Turning Point? - • Is Myanmar's Civil War...
Why Myanmar's Civil War is Bad News for China - • Why Myanmar's Civil Wa...
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1 - www.foreignaffairs.com/burma-...
2 - www.reuters.com/world/asia-pa...
3 - • Is Myanmar's Civil War...
3 - • Why Myanmar's Civil Wa...
4 - www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliame...
5 - commonslibrary.parliament.uk/...
6 - www.cfr.org/backgrounder/myan...
7 - thediplomat.com/2021/09/myanm...
8 - www.cfr.org/blog/myanmar-army...
9 - myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024-01
10 - myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2023-11
10 - www.brookings.edu/articles/op...
11 - www.foreignaffairs.com/burma-...
11 - myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024-01
12 - www.brookings.edu/articles/my...
13 - www.brookings.edu/articles/my...
14 - thediplomat.com/2024/01/ahead...
15 - www.foreignaffairs.com/burma-...
16 - eastasiaforum.org/2023/12/16/...
17 - www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/de...
17 - www.foreignaffairs.com/burma-...
17 - www.gisreportsonline.com/r/my...
18 - www.foreignaffairs.com/burma-...
19 - myanmar.un.org/en/257739-myan...
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As a Thai, it’s kinda worrying how this could effect the rest of the region as well. The wave of refugees are already increasing
we're also sheltering a lot of refugees here in NE India. Hopefully peace prevails in Myanmar and they can go back home again
Even though I am not a refugee, I myself is a migrant having to live and work in Thailand because of targeted arrests.
wooooooooooooo
@@somaelselino7627 are you Burmese?
The Burmese are very similar to Thai but the impact of mass refugees is valid.
It is criminal how little this conflict gets covered. I hope for the best for all the innocent people of Myanmar. May they become a free and prosperous nation.
Hahahahahaha, if you want to know more, learn Chinese!
yea they only care about Ukraine and Palestine even the media in Thailand and Bangladesh talks more about that .
no fun allowed in english lets try it in a few other language i hope you understand
Ja, ze geven alleen maar om Oekraïne en Palestina, zelfs de media in Thailand en Bangladesh hebben het daar meer over.
Oui, ils ne s'intéressent qu'à l'Ukraine et à la Palestine, même les médias thaïlandais et bangladais en parlent davantage.
Ja, sie interessieren sich nur für die Ukraine und Palästina, sogar die Medien in Thailand und Bangladesch sprechen mehr darüber.
হ্যাঁ তারা শুধু ইউক্রেন এবং ফিলিস্তিনের কথা চিন্তা করে এমনকি থাইল্যান্ড ও বাংলাদেশের মিডিয়াও সে বিষয়ে বেশি কথা বলে।
ใช่แล้ว พวกเขาสนใจแค่ยูเครนและปาเลสไตน์ แม้แต่สื่อในประเทศไทยและบังคลาเทศก็พูดถึงเรื่องนั้นมากกว่า
ထိုင်းနဲ့ ဘင်္ဂလားဒေ့ရှ်က မီဒီယာတွေတောင် ယူကရိန်းနဲ့ ပါလက်စတိုင်းတွေကိုပဲ အာရုံစိုက်နေကြတာ။
是的，他们只关心乌克兰和巴勒斯坦，就连泰国和孟加拉国的媒体也更多地谈论这两个国家。
The Thai you wrote is a bit bad, but they don't really talk about the war here - just talk about the refugees.@@belstar1128
@@CodeMeatChin, ese is falling apart country. It's a waste. Chack out serpentza. Very informational on Chinese.
Democracy is not perfect but it is infinitely better thwn any other sociopolitical system. Military dictatorship and authoritarianism rarely lead to anything good for society. As a Nigerian, i will maintain this stance forever
Singapore is not a democracy
Democracy should in principle help bring greater equality. Equality brings contentment and thus peace
Only strongmen and their sycophants want inequality.
Democracy is bad but those military dictators are slightly worse
Democracy has a long list of fundamental flaws, but you're right, it's still infinitely better than any of the alternatives.
@@wamingo
Unfortunately that's not true.
In many places with democratic voting systems the majority of people want some minority groups to be put below the majority.
After losing his first run for governor of Alabama
George Wallace said something like
"I talked about taxes and highways and deficits and Patterson talked about segregation and I lost.
I'll never get out segregated in an election again".
The next election Wallace talked a lot about segregation and won.
It's true that all sorts of barriers made it very hard for Black people to vote but even if all Black people had voted the white majority was in no mood for equality for Black people.
And that's still true in a lot of Republican states today.
Though I will say that in a true democracy the majority would not oppress the minority.
I dont think it will break up. If anything, in a case of a rebel cictory, the country will be federalised along ethnic lines, similar to Ethiopia (but hopefully without the same outcome).
Federalization always spells disaster for multi ethnic nations in the long run. It divides countries into little statelets that allow nationalist actors to take advantage. The last thing we need is a southeast asian Yugoslavia.
fret not, I think it would be a Yugoslavia scenario.
@@esense9602 that being, ruled by a strongman for a few decades and THEN breaking up ?
Its will be the vacuum power grabs like in every other civil war.
They have nothing in comen expect hating the government.
@@cgt3704 there's also a secissionist and pro-India in their alliance. I say, it would be lucky that after kicking out the military junta, there will be no more 2nd civil war arising.
I've visited Myanmar which is an absolutely beautiful country.
Myanmar people are honest, friendly and helpful.
I hope Myanmar manages to sort things out.
Peace and prosperity to all Myanmar people! 🙏🙏🙏
My heart and prayers go out to Myanmar and her people 🙏
No doubt, Myanmar is a beautiful wonderful country and Myanmar people are awesome.
I too hope Myanmar manages to sort things out.. I wish them peace and prosperity!
Burma/Myanmar: From Anglo Western Colonialism to Anglo Western boycott & sanction to Anglo Western sponsored civil war.. It never ends. 😔
Just to let you know that I read the informative multi-page comments by 'Ms. Gregoria' at, "Myanmar remains in social and economic crisis since military seized power/BBC News"., and learnt a whole lot more about Myanmar than I've ever known. Thanks! 🙏🏻
FYI: About 60,000 rapid deployment troops of the People Republic of China stationed in Yunnan Province near the border with Burma.
By the way, just to let you know that I read the very informative multi-page comments by 'Ms. Gregoria' at, "Myanmar remains in social and economic crisis since military seized power/BBC News"., and learnt a whole lot more about Myanmar than I've ever known. Greatly appreciated. 🙏🏻
"Myanmar remains in social and economic crisis since military seized power/BBC News": ruclips.net/video/70ZnQZEBVuU/видео.html
@@AGrace-tw6ku "About 60,000 rapid deployment troops of the People Republic of China stationed in Yunnan Province near the border with Burma."
Big brother China comes to a rescue.
1:47 The green bar is way too big for 30 seats against 255
they do this kind of "lies" very often. be careful when seeing a graph on this channel.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922they make allot of mistakes which aren't on purpose
@@rizkyadiyanto7922Man c'mon. Not everything you see is a secret shadow state conspiracy lol
@@2ksbu123 when a mistake is too common it is a bit suspect.
TLDR is more of a social media than actual news channel. take the info here with a grain of pepper
as a south korean, i hope burmese people can live in a land of peace and free as soon as possible. my country was once like myanmar, ruled by military government, south koreans had no freedom of anything just like north koreans. however our people were brave enough to overcome everything, civilians end up gained victory against military party, and made our nation so strong. i certainly believe that burmese people are the same too.
Preety sure US forced South Korean dictatorship to give up unlike in Burma
South korean coup leaders were kept in check by the States and how flawed it was the coup leader of sk had some great economic outcomes Myanmar military is just infested with extremist nationalists fested with corruption
what are you talking about?! south korea is occupied state by usa. koreans did nothing, they are just sheeps with purple hair cuts. you are brainwashed to the core! wake up!
It's Myanmar
Thank you for fully understanding and supporting 💗❤ with love from Myanmar.
2:03 iconic
She deadass made historically significant footage, that will be remembered in Myanmar for decades if not centuries, completely by accident doing a dance for Instagram.
Absolutely incredible
"So this is how democracy dies, with a tiktok dance"
@Hannibal-Barca It's not a dance. It's an aerobic exercise. But who cares, that's the start of the worst time for us, Myanmar. And, though the military is losing, they're trying to defend themselves till the end by any means like calling new soldiers(between the age of 18 to 35, both man and woman) with force, catching people for no reason and sending them to the frontline with three or four weeks training, no food. All of this is already happening right now.
It is amazing that she did not hear the military vehicles
earphones
I think I remember reading that it was part of a "people filming everyday life" to attempt to document/raise awareness of the coup... could also just be headphones though xD
might have been a long zoom, so it'd look a closer than it really was. coupled with music from a speaker, the scale might not have been as obvious
Vehicles on streets?! Not in Myannmar!
do you even know the layout of the parliamentary buildings??
Hello. I'm from Myanmar. The Junta have just enforced conscription yesterday as they start collapsing. Please pray for Myanmar youths 🙏.
Unless Wa joints the rebel forces, I don't think Min Aung Hlaing's government will collapse. The Three Brotherhood Alliance has quieted down recently.
@@John-.-Smith They promised to fight till the end of Dictatorship. Wa and Mongla Force won't join easily unless they have their own interest.
@@John-.-Smith not the arakan army, they have surrounded the state capital, the city no longer have any internet last i've heard
Forcing people to fight will create more people willing to spy and betray Myanmar coup regime but worse have inside access and control of junta weapons and info. Many going to be double agent for rebels which means expect more sabotage and rebels knowing junta forces positions
The economy of the country couldn't afford conscription, this conscription will lead to the speedy fall of Min Aung Hlaing regime.
I'll forever find it wild that a key piece of historical footage for this time/place is this lady livestreaming a yoga/aerobics session.
I feel that Myanmar has been quite underreported on, glad its starting to receive more coverage
Because already bigger events are happening. Ukraine vs Russia, palestine vs israel
They don’t care since they only care about a few countries in SouthEast Asia.
@@chiggywiggy524but does it mean a conflict that's as bloody as the other world events need to go uncovered? People of Myanmar have very much lose hope on the international community precisely because they barely get covered with close to zero aid that actually reaches places in need.
6:21 is that a minecraft breaking glass sound?
Yes
Yes
yes but no one cares
@@whoami78103 About you?
Just kidding 😅 ( sorry if you felt bad )
@@wildgaming7715 lol
i said "no one cares" bc i felt like that person who commented that didnt feel bad for the country (if you did feel bad sorry)
I hate how this is barely talked about! Cheers for making a video onit👌
It seemed that the situation in Mynammar got a huge amount of attention after the coup as if
"the world was with Mynammar protesters"
but then the media and the world moved on to other matters just as they had previously moved on from paying attention to the plight of the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.
@@geofflepper3207Ukraine war took all the attention
Because US is hardly involved in it and it's a country so far away.
The Wa State is no longer the only sovereign state within Myanmar. At the end of last year, the Chin state also declared its sovereignty from Myanmar renaming itself as the State of Chinland:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinland
Chad has some competition from Chinland now.
Chadians when Chinlanders walk into the room:
Man these replies are insane. Chad and chinlanders aren't the same also they are called chin peoples. I know it is a joke
Yea by they are also home to a score of groups that have either aligned to the NUG or an independent idea it isn't universally accepted by the Chin Groups in the Chin State. And am sure they are gonna be like a nation in a nation.
The WA states meanwhile recognises the Central Government (Junta) as the Sovereign Overlord while maintaining de facto independence.
For future reference: 'Kyat' is pronounced as 'chat' or at least it was when I visited the country some years ago :) I only mean to be of help. Keep reporting on Myanmar, as its people simply does not deserve to be forgotten again as they were when the country was closed of.
That mispronunciation was jarring.
Thank you. And do visit Myanmar again after we have democracy restored.
He at least pronounces "Suu Kyi" that way.
@@1xm_mx1 I will visit when you have democracy again. I have visited previously and love the people. Favorite place is Pyin Oo Lwin.
Do you know if Ky is pronounced like a Ch in general?
Thanks!
Looks like he actually did research and did a good report unlike some people trying to use the conflict to get clicks.
6:50 situation in Bangladesh-Burma border is really bad,2 people died by morter shell explosion and several people are wounded by bullet shot from helicopter inside the boundary of Bangladesh.
More than 200+ burmese Border gaurd/Army/govt. staff fled to Bangladesh till 06/02/2024.
Pretty sure many of those fleeing border guards are the same troops that committed genocide to the Rohingyas years earlier
@@thurahtun6428 yup, karma
@@thurahtun6428yes. And guess what. Our people welcomed them and even treated them , fed them.
@@thurahtun6428ordered by the very democratic Su kyii
@@atomica0914only MAL can do that
I would like to thank Top Gear for teaching me what the Shan state is.
As someone who literally just made a research project about Myanmar, things aren’t looking good
Well now they are drafting the civilians
Glad someone is finally talking about this mess.
Thanks for your report !
Thank you for great content ❤
5:34 dude is either shooting blanks without an adapter or his weapon is broken.
Realistically, at this point of the conflict, there is no way Tatmadaw can make a comeback. Both fractions are divided to a point but the military situation is way worse compare to the rebel alliance.
Thanks for your message with important information about political matters.
The Myanmaar civil war, is similar to WW2, everyone is fighting a common enemy, but would split apart after the war. If the rebels won(which is not impossible), this would lead to either a formation of highly unstable state with constant civilwars, like in South Sudan, or would lead to an ineffective government, similar to Iraq, where the internationally recognized government is struggling to assert its control over most of the country.
The correct pronunciation of the Myanmar currency, the Kyat is "chat", not "kee-yat".
🤓🤓
ur doing that cuz u cant stand that facts is real lol and yes Kyat is pronounce chat@@dusantrifunovic2047
Who the fk cares
@@satchua7367Obviously not wooden headed commentators.
Gyatt
I am glad Myanmar has been receiving attention. I really wonder why almost all media are predicting or guessing about the future of Myanmar breaking up and how it could be unstable, but doing nothing substantial in helping the people and the ethnic groups fighting the junta. The humanitarian aids still go through the military, the countries still acknowledge and meet the junta, etc. I think they should focus more on the present. What Myanmar will become after, is definitely not clear cut, but at least 4 ethnic groups have signed mutual agreement with NUG, so we shall see.
4 is a small number because there are a lot of rebel groups in the country. And it definitely isn't enough to lay the path for a 'Stable' Federation. Despite how influential it may be, NUG does not have power over any EAO group, and it's not even the only unity-seeking organization.
The three brotherhood alliance for example are apart of the Wa-based "FPNCC". And there's the military based "NCA" tho it's influence is declining.
@@ishikawananda3688 You're right, but Western media like to fool their people at best.
I really feel bad for Myanmar 🇲🇲
You are Indian?
@@kaziabir1 unfortunately
@@AncientKing9197 I am Indian too...
Fortunately
@@PrithwirajMistri congratulations
Lol 😂😂😂 I'm maybe a 1/4 or less Indian
As a Bangladeshi i am worried about the wave of refugees AGAIN, already there are more than 1.2 million Rohingya refugees residing in my country and now from past few days the BGP(Myanmar Border Guards) are also coming and taking shelter in Bangladesh, we are very scared I don’t know what’s going to happen.
I wish peace comes to Myanmar.
Why does Bangladesh keep on accepting them? Let them go to China, the country that is orchestrating this all.
@@NativeVsColonial
Because Bangladesh is like 100KM away and It's also closer to Chittagong financial port
Where you have to cross Jungle & mountains for 1000KM and the only Yunan is already holding Myanmar's kokang refugees
@@NativeVsColonialare you serious ? Myanmar is a huge country. And Rohingyas only live in Rakhine state of Myanmar which is thousands of miles away from the Chinese border but trekking distance away from Bangladesh border.
@@NativeVsColonial The last thing that wants war in Myanmar is China, because China has a lot of investment in Myanmar. War will bring a lot of uncertainty.😅
@@NativeVsColonial Rohingya is indeed 100% ethnic Bangladeshi, British colonizers bring them to Myanmar, they have the right to go back their ancestral home. China always receive north Myanmar race, Yunan province can give them free compulsory education and work pression, but only in Yunan province, other province need visa
One positive from the coup is that the majority Burmans and the NUG have come to recognise the ethnic groups far more.
Was this spurred by the fact that the ethnic groups had EAOs that could help the NUG in the conflict? Probably. But at least they are talking which gives some hope that a federal state system could work in a post junta country
Seems similar to the Past then?
Yes but I don't see it as being enough to lay the path for a 'Stable' Federation. Despite how influential it may be, NUG does not have power over the EAOs, and it's not even the only unity-seeking organization.
The three brotherhood alliance for example are apart of the Wa-based "FPNCC".
And there's the military based "NCA" tho it's influence is declining.
Rohingya crisis took place in democratic Suu Kyi era
Just a pronunciation tip from an english speaker with almost no knowledge of the Burmese language. Many words in Burmese use a 'k' with a 'ch' sound, for instance the currency 'kyat' is pronounced more like 'chiat'. My apologies to anyone from Burma/Myanmar for possibly butchering your language.
As a Burmese citizen. It is okay my friend.
It is not big deal.
@@MrK-ih3hru mean ochay?
I wish the Burmese currency changes it's name Kyat. because it has the same pronunciation meaning Tight Spot
thanks for Myanmar updated news
More than 265 members of Myanmar’s Border Guard Police have fled their posts and taken shelter in Bangladesh to escape fighting between Myanmar security forces and an ethnic minority army. The alliance, called the Three Brotherhood Alliance, said in a statement Monday that the Arakan Army had attacked two border outposts in Maungdaw township in Rakhine state and captured one of them on Sunday.
Bangladesh is already feeling the heat of escalating clashes in the bordering regions, with the sound of gunfights keeping the locals in bordering areas awake at nights. In the last five days, fighting between the Arakan Army and the military junta flared once again. As a result, mortal shells are falling inside the Bangladeshi territory and has caused at least two deaths and multiple injuries. Some 264 members of Myanmar's border and security forces have entered the Bangladesh side illegally to escape fighting, according to Border Guard Bangladesh (as of 3:45 pm Tuesday). Some of them have bullet injuries.
Why do your use the US date system (month/day) it's so irritating!
Same reason why you're speaking English, it's the lingua franca. If the US spoke French, you'd be using French.
Meh
@@pugilist102 Except he's English ... In England we use dd/mm/yyyy ... If he was American, it wouldn't be noteworthy. Because he is English, it shows that he has made a conscious effort to adopt an American way of speaking. To an English person, it sounds a bit like Hilary Clinton going to Texas and trying to speak with a Texan accent. It's jarring and sounds like you're trying too hard.
@@solsunman383 England had it's day, no longer. It's still the US century, better start using the imperial system too!
@@pugilist102 XD it hasn't even been the US's decade. Not since 2016. I'll keep using metric, like the rest of the world (except, ironically Myanmar, I believe).
I agree that England has had it's day. Time for a nice long nap. I have comfy slippers, so I'm well prepared.
Heavy fighting is going in border area of Bangaldesh. Yesterday, 100+ burmies soldiers retreated into Bangladesh following a attack from the Arakan Army. 1 Bangladeshi citizen has even died due to mortar shells misfired into our country.
It's 296
Today's 309 @@medanchess7892
its funny how the military massacring people forcing them to be refugees are the ones turning out to be the refugees here now
I would love it if bangladesh had the gut to come forward and secretly show some worldly support for an arakan state. Bangladesh needs to play a double game here. Assure the arakan army that Bangladesh will help them as much as possible if can achieve independence.at the same time assure the miyanmar military of safe shelter but hand over them to arakan after independence. 😅 historically we always had alliance with the arakan state. We can easily grow military alliances with them. Or even reunite it with Bangladesh. First step to United Bangla. 😁 hasina needs to grow a pair like Indira Gandhi. 😂
@@jecobreza2406
Bangladesh current government is a now a puppet of India
It is no longer a Bangladeshi government but a Indian pseudo run oligarch Nation
Bangladesh used support North East Indian Separitst but after 2008 it slowed and after 25 Feb 2009 it was all over and Bangladesh become a banana Republic
Current Bangladesh is now weakest in its last 20 years
Bangladesh doesn’t have the head
Any other nation would've taken this beautiful opportunity to strike but Bangladesh can't even US will give its full support to Bangladesh but Bangladesh can't
the country won't break apart at least on paper. ethnic groups will form their own regional governments until everyone can agree upon how to transition into a federal Union.
That is called a confederation but yes, tho there likely will be some states that will leave.
No, they all are under control by NUG now.
@@ishikawananda3688 likely will want to leave but the realities of a small nation might make them agree to a confederation
@@augustuslunasol10thapostle Weather a nation's size is big or small does not matter. These rebel groups are holding up very well for decades and so on. Like Wa state for example, is doing very well.
The actual problem is getting recognized. If Myanmar doesn't recognize the new independent state, other countries are not likely to either. And without recognition, you can't really do much business with another nation (through official means).
Confederation is like that sweet spot where they would still have total authority over their own state but don't have to deal with the conflicts with the Myanmar government.
Interesting developments.
5:32 Anyone knows what that Rifle the Soldier is using? That caught my attention the way he's using it.
They are mostly homemade weapons. Most parts of the resistance forces rely on self made weapons. Although some has standard weapons, it's not possible to distribute all those weapons around the country.
the Minecraft glass breaking sound @ 6:20 had me dead
It's always bizarre to me to see a Military whose ambition is other than purely defending their country.
they are defending their wealth. Through decades of corruption, every current/former military officer is at least a millionaire in USD. The military is the entire aristocracy.
People of Mayamar didn't stood for There fellow citizen the Rohangia.
The result is evident now
300 Burmese Army Already Come To Bangladesh 🇧🇩 For Shelter (Still Changing) And 2 People in Bangladesh Killed By Bomb Came From Burma
Myanmar is the country and Burma is the people.
@@Blox_Sameyelno. Burma is another name for Myanmar. Bamar is the majority ethnic group in Myanmar. You are confusing Bamar with Burma.
The bombs were supposedly fired on the retreating soldiers
@@atomica0914the military has the mortars, if anything its a false flag or self inflicted
2:02
She is a historic figure. She will never be forgotten.
A lot of people seems to forget that Myanmar is in world longest civil war and ethnic minorities are fighting for their freedom since then. As a Burmese, I can clearly see they don't want war anymore. But defeating the military is much more promising. And after that, they most likely will accept the federalization(not to mention they are fighting under the promise of federalization). So they already know what they're doing.
Was all of myanmar united with the distaste for the rohingya?
@@Chooong7 They were only main land Burmese. Ethnic minorities have been facing similar attacks for far longer than rohigya had.
❤️
@@leachblah6313 If you choose Federalism go with Geographic Federalism and not Ethnic Federalism like Ethiopia did.
@@Xenomorph-hb4zf Can you explain those? I can't find anything on google? Edit: Why should I choose one over the other?
I think it’s entirely possible that a central government with restored democracy and ethnic breakaway regions aren’t mutually exclusive. We could end up seeing a scenario where the dictatorship is overthrown, and the multiethnic nature of the rebellion enables it to allow the explicitly secessionist elements of it to gain their independence peacefully.
I don't think the majority Burmese people will be in support of breakaway States but I do think that is the best outcome.
Myanmar State Administration Council is brink of collapse and fall.Peace will be restored and Aung San Suu Kyi will rule Myanmar as President
I admire your optimism, but I don't think ASSK will be healthy enough to serve as president after all this is over, but she could still serve as our icon of democracy. 2 out of 3 won't be bad.
@@1xm_mx1 Yeah you right. She is not suitable to be president as her age and according to her health. I am sure that she will reject to become the president also because that is not what she wants.
It would be the best for the country but unfortunately it will not happen due to the other facts. But she will be the icon of the democracy for the country and the important person like her father General Aung San.
Why would you even bring back a failed President? She is not corrupt but a incompetent letting the military have too much power instead of supressing them. It was on her time when Rohingya incident happens so there's no way that it would be a stable government.
Aung San Suu Kyi's government lacks its own military, and even if it succeeds in governing, the country will still fall into chaos
I am from Bangladesh and i think myanmar people should be a peaceful country like ASEAN countries
Bro ASEANS countries are not peaceful
Read Their history. It's fiIIed with war crimes
Great video topic, especially about a region sadly overlooked by global atention.
I just think it would be more interesting, instead of wondering if Myanmar will have secession, to give examples of which the new separatist states may be. It would certainly help understand the whole conflict a lot better.
Of perpetual conlict is what unity brings then they may aswell split.
some states are doing just that, it may as well happen
@@C-Farsene_5 it really does depend on the state. Places like Arakan & Karen are showing more radical nationalism so they are likely to separate but others like Kachin and Shan are incredibly unstable so very unlikely.
A potential 2nd era of soldiers of fortune? Hell yeah!
It's almost like "Divide And Rule" and ethnic cleansing are bad ideas.
Unfortunately for now, some regions already split apart due to the military outcast.
Have any of you seen some of the combat footage the anti-Junta fighters made? It's like every platoon has a guy recording it on his phone. It's crazy.
Btw, a lot of the anti-Junta forces are armed with a whole range of weapons, but mainly Chinese ones. Chinese copies of AKs, local copies of Chinese-designed rifles. Many others have a mix of modern Western and Soviet/Russian guns, some leftover guns from the World Wars. I saw one PDF fighter use an M1 Carbine. I saw another anti-Junta group have a modernized PPSh-41 with a pistol grip and folding wire stock welded on, replacing the PPSh's rifle grip. It also had a foregrip welded under the barrel shroud and a suppressor. I also saw the KNLA (i think) with an anti-aircraft rifle. Yes, an AA rifle (basically, it was a .50 cal sniper rifle on a tripod - actually sounds pretty useful against helicopters). And I remember a PDF guy using an M79, that single-shot grenade launcher used in the Vietnam War.
The "alphabet soup" of anti-Tat groups (from "Tatmadaw," the name of Myanmar's armed forces) are all united in their hatred of the Tat (which can refer to just the armed forces of Myanmar or to the Junta-controlled government as a whole: the police and border guards are also routinely targeted by anti-Tat forces). But as a wise woman once said, "To be united by hatred is a fragile alliance at best."
I hope Myanmar can turn hate into peace and end the fighting. Personally I'd like to see the Junta collapse and a democratically-elected government just run things normally, without bombing random villages or conscripting masses of people.
Graphs of territory often do not show where major city and towns are. The rebels or the military can in control of thousands of kilometers of uninhabited jungle for all that graph shows. On a side note. It’s so wild how ethnic tension is smashing apart so many countries. I could not imagine ethnic minorities causing civil war and ethnic tension in the US.
Tbh, yeah
The military controls most of the major urban centers, and the rebels control the less densely populated stuff
I think the point is to show how the military is losing its hold on most of the outskirts and is forced to slowly retreat into the Bamar heartland
You joking right? What do you think it is self proclaimed white christians literally shitting in the capitol? 😅
If you control the cities, but not farmland and border crossings then you still lose. Myanmar In comparison to the USA is ruled by a more repressive and authoritarian regime.
Its harder in the usa because there is no clear usa ethnicities but different mixes in different areas.
Also the usa ideals are not base on ethnic lines. Which most of thr old world is
Not just jungle and wilderness, but now villages, towns, and small cities are under the ERO and PDF control and NUG administration. A few towns had to be given back to the SAC for fear of excessive air strikes on towns. The US is not far from civil war the way I see it - it is extremely disunited under a weak leadership and divisive policies.
After the Junta is defeated, Myanmar will probably have another civil war, due to those militias. Although maybe the government could work out a deal with those militias, and become federalised.
Myanmar should balkanized.
I mean it already is just a patchwork of different ethnicities
The good thing is we are in 21st century. All of these ethnic groups and militias now have the internet access that can communicate each other faster and clear in terms of coordination and cooperation. So we won't have misunderstandings and misinformations between these groups that would eventually lead to another civil war to a extent.
Yes it is 50/50 my friend.
Ethnic leaders aren’t as brainless as people think they are. They will not risk another civil war since they have their own people to protect.
Also, revolutionary Burmese youths are assimilated into their ranks. They’ll shoot themselves in the foot if they try stupid power hungry acts. Doing reckless acts like trying to control more land will gain the ire of not just their own ethnic people but also the majority Burmese. No leader after the junta’s fall will ever dare try to be authoritarian. They know exactly what happens when people turns those kind of dictators if they cross the line. People are sick and disgusted of them.
I really hope they can come to agreement or just split peacefully.
Can’t stop the signal.
Shit, now we're getting conscripted. It just keeps getting worse over here
Bro I turn 18 next year. Hope all this shit ends or else I'm fucked in 365 days.
5:34 what the hell is that? a charge handle action m4? XD
Best guess is a faulty magazine leading to failure to feed.
Second guess is incorrect buffer weight creating bolt bounce.
probably homemade guns?
The truth line is very difficult 😢
I’m very much appreciated all constructive comments without blindly blaming on Myanmar people as genocides and karma returns to you.
I was sick of seeing those kind of comments in most RUclips videos about Myanmar.
We are already too painful and numb living with terrors and civil war. Those blames are not helpful.
Burmese people also love their country, want to live peacefully in their home with their families.
I myself is far away from my family for 3 years , I could not return easily as I deeply want to.
We want to end this conflict not by giving up to Military.
Coz we know how they are cruel, stupid and irresponsible.
Not all military government are the same .At least Thai people can live peacefully without terror under their regime.
To our neighbors, thanks very much for hosting our brothers.
They will return home when we restore our freedom. We won’t forget your gratitude.
the thai military has 33% of governmeant seats and in the recent elections forced the winning party out of government by arresting the leaders, its not peaceful or good. They are fascist
Lets not forget that when the Rohingas were violently chased from their lands (genocide even?), the countey was fine with it
The country wasn't informed, it was at a time when the junta controlled the media and social media was just becoming a thing after decades of minor international entry. Even the muslims in Yangon didn't know about the rohingya genocide.
Please apdate every
Idk man I've seen many claims like this for the last 3 years and nothing ever happens
An multi-ethnic federal democracy could be a bad idea. In Malaysia, ethnic minorities, including the affluent Chinese and Indian population, are marginalised as the Malay always have the majority and everyone votes on ethnic lines, whereas Singapore, which broke away, has been more successful and avoided such ethnic tensions. Then again, if they break apart, the former Yugoslavia shows how problematic that can be. It would leave a bunch of tiny, poor countries too, with a militarised population with nothing to do. Former soldiers make poor farmers.
Ya, breaking apart isn’t a good idea, plus there’s a chance these smaller states start fighting with each other for land
Exactly. When there's ethnic tensions, they actually need a benevolent dictator to keep a lid on things, like how the Ottoman empire kept the Middle East at peace, and how Yugoslavia did the same for the Balkans. With so much religious and ethnic hatred and so much militancy, the area isn't ready for democracy or balkanisation.
@@moharshad6882
Singapore is a city-state. You can't compare it to any other peer. Basically: choose whatevercauses the least corruption.
@@DommTom
Perhaps if we replaced politicians and administrators of government agencies and departments with AI systems that would cut down on corruption.
What's an AI system going to do with a million dollar bribe or an expensive gift?
But having AI systems run everything does raise concerns .
@@geofflepper3207 That makes me wonder: does Skynet know corruption?
Question: is there a possibility that part of Myanmar will be unofficially or officially annexed by China? i
Honestly prolly is, but it’s only theirs a region that wants to be annexed by china
No one wants these burmese craps
Media keep telling about the involvement of China but not sure why they don't mention India. There's 1 faction that's pro-India, 1 faction that's pro-China, a 2 separatist and anti-junta rebels.
Ya the wa state is unofficially annexed by china now. And what is more? The whole myanmar will be officially annexed by china in next 40 years
中国要求他们停止战斗，所以我们对缅甸没有兴趣
7:42 the burmese currency "kyats" is pounced "chats" not kayat.
Kyat, pronounced "chat" if I'm not mistaken.
I'm wondering if China will ever send troops to support the Government forces and to give its troops much needed experience before the next Taiwan incident
Unfortunately for the Junta, they upset China when they let criminal organizations run rampant over the border (see recent crackdowns on online scams in the region). Some of the rebels are also suspected to have Chinese connections.
@@pll3827MNDAA and wa state certainly has the connection since they speak Chinese at Lingua Franca in their controlled area. Their medical and telecom are also provided from china
@@mabo9636I believe China will just create a pro-China in some region in Myanmar than fckng pacifying the whole country. There's also some pro-India in the fray and some separatist so I bet that after the Military-junta fall, another war will happen and it will be between the rebel forces and separatist.
They are sub-china they work for china more than myanmar military does.
No China has stated already that it will be neutral on military intervention.
After the British Empire absorbed the different tribal regions of what is now known as Burma it was called The Union of Burma, so these different regions have always fought to get their Independence back.
As what happened anywhere the British Empire poked it nose into independent countries far from the UK.
2M Rohingya's in Bangladesh now
Are you still blaming the entire country for what the army did years ago? Can't you see that people can't do anything about what happened? Even now, they are trying but still can't, but they will win one day. Do you really not understand, or are you one of the paid actors?
Before you reply, yes, ASSK defended the army because if she didn’t, what would happen to a country without an army? She wanted to resolve this as peacefully as possible. Even after she got to rule the country after the election, the country’s resources like gas and trees were all sold by the military to China and Russia. Their families are so rich in Myanmar, you can't even imagine it. Do you know that too? Of course not! What I am saying is they are doing this because they want power. They want to feel like the king of the country, where when they say die, people will die. That’s what they want, not money, because they already have all of that. You might wonder why we're fighting now. Why didn't we fight before? We've been fighting our whole life. The international community didn't care. Most people didn't have internet, light, or enough education to know what the hell was going on in the country. Well, because they made it that way! Now, after ASSK ruled for a few years, people started to know what it's like to be free. That's why they're starting to fight.
This nation never worked as a union, balkanisation may not be such a bad idea
We won't be wealthy and strong(then again we never weren't). But at least we won't be committing war crimes against each other anymore haha.
Hopefully....
@@ishikawananda3688 if you balkanize some will do the war crimes on others thats just a given at this point
@@augustuslunasol10thapostle Sadly, It's already happening.
Nice video
❤
where do you have the current controlled territories from? 😅 If I may ask
You mean the military controlled territories? The big cities, although the people in those big cities are very much anti-military.
The problem with some of the ethnic based armies/regimes is that they're socialists, so same as the ruling Junta's Tatmadaw. Tatmadaw is the name for the Burmese military and it's business interests. As an example, the Wa people are oppressed by a warlord, Bao Youxiang, a former communist, backed by CCP China and a current drug lord who has sided with the Tatmadaw to fight against other ethnic groups like the Shan mainly over drug trade control.
While that may be true, our enemy's enemy is our friend, and beggars can't be choosers, so the NUG will have to put aside the differences and ally with anyone who wants to fight the junta.
@@1xm_mx1 fair comment and perspective.
"Socialist" is an umbrella term. That's like saying Stalinism and Trotskyism are the same ideology.
@@Some_Average_Joe Stalinism and Trotskyism are both socialist, same shit different bucket.
When you put the profits of the country in the hands of the gov, they can pay the police and army directly and don’t need to listen to the people. Look at Saudi Amico or the Russian state own oil companies.
Hey, can you talk about thr DRC what is happening there is atrocious and worse that it has been in a very long time. Any awareness is helpful. Please
The minecraft glass sound took me so off guard honestly
Myanmar should join china and have a better life for it's people.
Withoiut the the military junta serving as a boogeyman, I question whether the ethnic groups can maintain a stable unified front, much less a unified government. History is not on their side.
History is on their side for over 1k years😅.
Just last 70 years or so that they haven't been as unified
@@zinny999the military did the ethnic cleansing and killed all trust
2:03 I remember this. The dancing Myanmar coup girl. 🤣
As an Burmese that video where that girl is dancing is in nay pyi thaw (capital)
Why do we even have Myanmar in ASEAN on the first place? 😬
Because its a country rich in natural resources and rare earth metals
Myanmar is super rich in natural resources. And the river delta is very fertile for crops. If the country is managed progressively and peacefully, it can be the the 4th largest economy by GDP in ASEAN. The demographic also is relatively young. It has so many untapped potential to be honest. Lets just hope Myanmar can solve its internal conflict.
Because some of the other member countries in ASEAN is also corrupt.
I don't think many other ASEAN nations could say many better things about their history tbh
Indonesia commited a genocide too
@@mnizammasood it's a crackpot's dream to hope peace for Myanmar at this point
Myanmar is near a lost cause for ASEAN to handle
Burma should be divided into many countries according to ethnicity - Shan, kachin, chin, karen, mon, wa, paluang, naga etc....
No military should be political.
This sounds like the southeast asian Balkans
the girl dancing while a coup is happening is the funniest thing ive ever seen
No shit she got no idea what happened she was vlogging
I'm from Myanmar we are fight for Justice & Our Rights I'm Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army ARSA Senior captain 🇲🇲💪
Honestly, although I have only a basic idea about this civil war, I think the best way forward, and the way to a lasting peace, would be for Burma to become a democratic, federal constitutional monarchy, similar to the Spanish system. I saw a documentary about the old deposed monarchy wanting to become relevant again, so it would be best for them to replace the military junta and become a national unifier and a political referee. That way the junta will never become a dangerously selfish force again.
THIS! people keep forgetting that the UK is made up of different ethnic groups too yet after having a more symbolic unifying unit with a democratic system, the ruling party then have their focus more on the economic point of things.
The problem with that is, whatever will be the new central government of post-junta Myanmar, it will unlikely be able to control over the multitude number of ethnic arm groups that hold the regional power.
Let go a trip to Thailand ooooooooo
Their military has a history of doing coups too .
@@elhombredeoro955 hel no 💀
@@elhombredeoro955ปัจจุบันเป็นรัฐบาลพลเรือนนะ
@@user-dz8js9tx5m"civilian"
world underestimated power of myanmar people.
At the start of 2021,they said that myanmar people couldn't win military junta.
Now they said again could win but may be split country.I just want to say to u guys just wait & see.We myanmar people will show the world about our unity.,determination &bravery.
My love to all Burmese ❤
I think it would make sense for Myanmar to split apart based on ethnicity. Whether it would work is another matter, especially since China is very keen on keeping the military junta in power.
Ethnic borders are blurred and people live with each other, they still need a way to live with one another
yeah, lets make 100 new countries as big as singapore.
So China can gobble them all up?
Yeah.... No.
Interestingly Burmese borders were not messed up the British. They relinquish Burma more or less the same as they conquered it from Kingdom of Burma. Burma has historically been ethnically diverse, but mostly dominated by the majority Bamar people. Most of the dynasties were Bamar.
It’s called Burma.
It was renamed Myanmar by the dictatorship when Saw Maung seized power in 1988, and nobody but their supporters recognises this.
If the British army seized power with child soldiers and proclaimed that the UK was now Saxon Land, rightfully nobody would actually rename the UK.
It's both. It's common consensus that both names are correct by both Myanmar and the international community.
The UK is not a country, it’s a Kingdom ruled by a parliamentary government composed of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The name United Kingdom is repugnant and contrary to the well-being of English, Welsh, Scottish and especially Irish people. It’s a colonialist occupation by the English.
The junta got the UN seat. At some point, ya gotta recognize de facto control, no matter if it's distasteful. Glad the situation is now changing though!
@@crash.override Like the UN cares about defacto control. They still don't consider Jerusalem the capital of Israel, even though it is the city they objectively use as their capital.
But that's irrelevant, you can acknowledge someone has control of somewhere without agreeing to call it what they want you to call it.
Russia controls a lot of what used to be Ukraine. I acknowledge that. They are the functional government of that region. I acknowledge that. If they decide to relocate their capital there, I'll acknowledge that. But if they declare that they've renamed it I'll ignore them, and I support driving them out because Russia is worse than Ukraine.
It has always been called Myanmar in Burmese, it is just a Persia/Iran situation
8:14 - Are those PROP fighters??
🤣😂🤣😂
Major Ethnic groups already control their own areas.
The Junta has control of the Bamar Centers in the middle.
Troops are disheartened and in many places abandoned their positions and fled.
The Junta are comfortable in their strange new Capital!
But this is a failed state for decades.
Sounds like an Ethiopia Derg regime situation
Multiple ethnic rebels united against a common enemy, and destroying it
I just hope it doesn't end the same way