Thank you. 😀 It's looking more and more likely we'll get a 0.50% cut. This would mimic the start of the 2001 and 2007 easing cycles. In both cases the stock market rallied for a few weeks after the cut. Then fell and gave back all the gains plus more. Let's see if that happens again this time.
These videos rock liquid! You've got me actively working towards freedom too. Based on my timeline, it will be more like Freedom 40 for me. I appreciate your stuff - please keep it up.
Always appreciate your videos! Could you please do some more TLT analysis? Now that Fed rate cuts are coming, it'd be getting relevant and intriguing more and more! :D
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog I'd say technical because 1) fundamental analysis, at this point, will leave me undecided and 2) the quality of your technical analysis is more than scarce on traditional media. Thank you in advance!
It looks like we got a 0.50% cut. The fix income market was already largely anticipating this decision so there wasn't much of a reaction. What's more important going forward is to watch the new employment and inflation numbers. If the job market and inflation is weaker than expected then long term bonds should perform well. I would also look at shorter term bond funds such as IEF, as the yields tend to fall faster than long term bonds when the economy is in trouble.
One thing that could trigger a crash is the large amount of debt out there. Both household and government debt are at higher levels than in 2001 and 2007. This combined with weakening labor statistics can send the financial markets into a panic. Let's keep an eye on the unemployment rate. :)
Yes, so far the market seems to be following its historic pattern of trending upwards for the first few weeks after a first rate cut of 0.50%. Whether or not we'll see a big correction in the months to follow is still unknown, but that's likely what will happen.
Awesome again. Great work
Thank you. 😀 It's looking more and more likely we'll get a 0.50% cut.
This would mimic the start of the 2001 and 2007 easing cycles.
In both cases the stock market rallied for a few weeks after the cut. Then fell and gave back all the gains plus more.
Let's see if that happens again this time.
great content!
Thanks kaizen.
These videos rock liquid! You've got me actively working towards freedom too. Based on my timeline, it will be more like Freedom 40 for me. I appreciate your stuff - please keep it up.
That's excellent, dude. And 40 is still super early compared to most people. Good luck!
ur data analysis is interesting
Thanks. Glad you like the content. :)
Good call. They did .50%
I think this will be the first of many more to come.
Always appreciate your videos! Could you please do some more TLT analysis? Now that Fed rate cuts are coming, it'd be getting relevant and intriguing more and more! :D
Thanks! Are you more interested in the analysis from a fundamental or technical perspective?
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog I'd say technical because 1) fundamental analysis, at this point, will leave me undecided and 2) the quality of your technical analysis is more than scarce on traditional media. Thank you in advance!
In closing: it might go up, it might go down, or it might go sideways. :)
Haha, so true. That's Finance RUclips for you.
How do you think treasury bonds would react to the 0.25% or 0.5% rate cut? I'm wondering as a TLT investor
It looks like we got a 0.50% cut. The fix income market was already largely anticipating this decision so there wasn't much of a reaction. What's more important going forward is to watch the new employment and inflation numbers. If the job market and inflation is weaker than expected then long term bonds should perform well. I would also look at shorter term bond funds such as IEF, as the yields tend to fall faster than long term bonds when the economy is in trouble.
Got 50. TLT?
TLT and IEF should both do well going into year end.
But we dont have the housing bubble of 2007 or valuations of 2001. Why crash now?
One thing that could trigger a crash is the large amount of debt out there. Both household and government debt are at higher levels than in 2001 and 2007. This combined with weakening labor statistics can send the financial markets into a panic. Let's keep an eye on the unemployment rate. :)
So she gonna go up stocks then
Yes, so far the market seems to be following its historic pattern of trending upwards for the first few weeks after a first rate cut of 0.50%. Whether or not we'll see a big correction in the months to follow is still unknown, but that's likely what will happen.