Airbus & Boeing's worst nightmare is about to come true...
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- Опубликовано: 1 май 2024
- How Boeing Royally Screwed Embraer: • How Boeing Royally Scr...
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In a world where Boeing and Airbus dominate, it’s best not to be an independent airplane maker. The last couple of years proved that trying to attack this historic duopoly can be a resource intensive - and often unsuccessful - endeavor. Take Bombardier, for instance. Despite its strong legacy, it had to align itself with Airbus to save its marquee C-Series program. Mitsubishi, on the other hand, has struggled to find a foothold for its new DreamJet for years, with sales having ground to a halt.
And then there’s Embraer. Following the news of the Airbus-Bombardier sales, Embraer attempted to align with Boeing to boost sales of its flagship E2 jet. But as I covered in detail in this video, both COVID and the 737 MAX proved a toxic combination for Boeing, and they ultimately pulled out of the deal. And the repercussions for Embraer were pretty severe: it’s business has been pushed to the brink.
So it might come as a surprise when I tell you that this embattled jetmaker holds the key to finally breaking the Boeing/Airbus duopoly. But, they can’t do it alone. Rather, if Embraer aligns itself with China, they can formulate a recipe together that will finally break the world’s greatest duopoly. Let me explain…
#Embraer #Boeing #China #COMAC #Airbus 
Игры
As someone who's dad worked at Boeing and worked there as an installation mechanic himself, I was very disappointed Boeing didn't partner with Embraer to get into the regional airplane market. Embraer has always built excellent products.
Boeing DID partner with Embraer, then cancelled the JV, I am.in the Aviation business heard all about it, saw the press release.
They did, the thing is that Boeing screwed up so Embraer had to cancel the deal.
@@quisqueyanguy120 No it was Boeing that cancelled much to the disappointment of Embraer.
They did exactly what GM did to Opel , Ford to Jaguar , they just want to do business in American way , destroy the weak
@@Sevan59 It's not about destroying the weak , but it is about the difference between American business culture and European and Latin American business culture.
As a 170 pilot, I hope Embraer stays strong, such an easy plane to fly.
I love 170/175 jets they are my favorite by far
Just started my instrument!
@@andrewgonick Have fun with it, instrument is one of the hardest to get!
Embraers rule. True reliable workhorses
Easy to fly, and easy to ride! All of my best flights between DCA and ORD are on an Embraer.
Embraer is the greatest example of Brazilian perseverance, they are carrying through the toughest times since the beginning and it's beautiful to see their military reach and the technical sucess of their commercial planes. As Brazilians we can only hope the spirit of Santos Dumont pull some strings from above ❤️
Government paid for
cOme tO bRaziL
If Embraer merged or formed a partnership with Chinese Comac, Brazil can forget about receiving the latest military hardware from the US, UK or the West. No F-35 Lightning IIs for you!
The United States trusts Australia more than Brazil. Which says a lot. 🇺🇸 🇦🇺
I worked with many Embraer engineers in California during the EMB series test development and they are very talented in ever way with the heart and soul of a lion.
THE most impressive thing about a Brazilian company isn't the tech, it's the fact that there's been little fraud & less Govt interference
Eh. I'm not sold on this. How does Embraer get around the Chinese government ownership rules? And you're correct in that if COMAC buys Embraer there would be no mechanism to separate the defence division from the commercial aviation division, which would definitely not go well in the military. I think there are too many issues to get around in order to make this happen.
Where there’s a will there’s a way
@@pilotpeter8850 And enough money.
As someone who has done business in china for almost 20 years, it will not work. China's negociation strategy is a win-lose strategy, they win and you have to lose, otherwise they consider any negociation as a failure. If they try then china will get technology and Embraer will lose big time.
Plus, if US/EU/China tit-for-tat trade kicks in, Embraer loses access to western engines, avionics, etc.
As someone who knows people as somewhat in the know. If china us fight, Brazil is going to become more importantly as china's main food exporter. If china feels like it Embraer gets in
In your own explanation you hit right on the precise reason why Embraer will not walk away any part a winner.
Personally, I would like to see a partnership between Embraer and Saab or even Netherlands Aircraft Company (fokker) because Comac (China) and UAC (Russia) are currently doing their partnership business as C929
I'd also like to see Embraer partner with Mitsubishi
Saab is still around?
@@alphamalegold yes, they make fighters
Didnt fokker go under?
@@fredmdea785 Yes they did in 1996. But Fokker Technologies is still around, who make parts for Airbus.
YES! COBY is back !
When he showed an iPhone clip I was like whaaaat? Then he explaned it and it made sense
LOL can’t wait for Apple to announce they’re Apple plane
explaned*
What if Embraer partnered with Airbus 😋🤪🥴
@@pilotpeter8850 Pffftt apple plane.. Features IOS 69
@@_Hyunism oh hell nah Boeing would be ok but not in a million years airbus
don't waste our time telling us to sub before the vid even starts. if people are still watching at the end, do it then. At that point you earned it.
I don't think the Brazilian Gov't would approve the purchase of Embraer by COMAC; There is just too much national pride.
True. Nothing will happen in the next year anyway because Bolsonaro is up for reelection. His brand is Nationalism. Making Brazil a dictatorship, which he seems to favor, might make a China deal easier. But Embraer's military contracts would dry up. A dictatorship and unhappy generals is a bad mix.
There are other nationalist presidential candidates that would veto (sorry, don't know how to spell) such a chinese Embraer takeover. One of them is Ciro Gomes. He already told that if he were Brazil's president at the time of the Boeing-Embraer merger, he would definitely vetoed it using the golden share.
They almost gave Embraer for "free" to Boeing. They will easily allow the Chinese to buy Embraer. The Chinese already own CPFL (electricity company), so they literally own all southern Brazil electricity grid. It's inevitable.
@@georgew2014 Even without bolsonaro, do you think that it would be wise for the Brazilian state to authorize the transfer of Brazilian tech to China? The military division of Embraer is working in a local version of the JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet, that has a NATO compatible suit of avionics.
@@quisqueyanguy120 Politicians make unwise decisions all the time. But NATO could pressure Brazil to not do a China deal. It's possible that NATO has conveyed their sentiments through military back channels.
The sale of E2 was hampered by the deal with Boeing, with the end of the joint venture project, orders for E2 are coming. Embraer has great potential for sales of this model, especially in markets with size and noise restrictions (the E2 are the quietest commercial jets), in addition to turboprop market projections already focusing on the use of hydrogen ahead of competitors. Embraer has the potential and innovation to carry out its project on its own, and it will still be unbeatable in regional jets up to 140 seats for a long time
I saw the E2 “Profit Hunter” (as shown in the video) at Farnborough when it came in to do its LCY certification. Damn it’s a good looking aircraft, I’m sad that it hasn’t sold anywhere near as much as it should. It’ll be a great addition to someone like Southwest or BA Cityhopper
Exactly
C Series/A220? I dont prefer Bombardier rather than embrear, but...
That's a really sharp paint scheme @1:08. It would make a challenging model, especially without a decal set.
9:52 Man, that's some _seriously_ radical livery! Lol
Leonardo SPA would be an interesting merger partner with a lot of synergies for Embraer. However, I don’t think that in the end the Brazilian government will be willing to lose control.
The Government of Brazil had no choice, Boeing cancelled the joint venture for reasons best known to themselves.
@@musiclover5023 Oh yes, it has and it is called golden share. Boeing cancelled the joint venture once the financial issues faced with the MAX did not allow them to pay what they offered for merge with Embraer.
@@filipeprestes3754 exactly.
Very informative - keep it up!
I’m typed on multiple jets. The 170/190 is EASILY the best jet I’ve ever flown. It was truly amazing going from the 170 to the 737… the 73 is so archaic.
I agree! After flying on a 170 I was more than impressed by the quality of the aircraft and the attention to detail. Former airline EVP and M-11PIC. Fantastic!
Very skeptical regarding anything to do with China right now, defaults, energy shortages, capital flight, etc. and all the materials needed to build an aircraft, many of which are not found in China, and the non-reciprocity of intellectual property within the country is exactly why most Chinese companies see very little success outside of the domestic market. And with the fake numbers coming out of China, airlines, especially foreign ones and unsubsidized ones, are going to be infinitely more skeptical.
You can listen to all of the China experts who are stationed outside of China and wear a raincoat and an umbrella foe all the BS. You can listen to all of the hate China fear China western media.
Or you can listen to expats and Chinese nationals actually on the ground who will provide you with first hand accounts.
By the end of this decade China is going to be the biggest economic power in earth.
By 2040 China will be $7 Trillion to $13 Trillion bigger than the US.
You bet against them and you will lose money so quick, you are going to be crying like a baby.
Nobody turns a $180 Billion economy in 1979 into a $16 Trillion GDP economy by 2021 without knowing what they are doing and being really good at it.
Just saying
@@danwelterweight4137 you’ve missed my point. China is wholly dependent on an output of energy and the government has an incentive to continually lie about their economic numbers in an effort to keep foreign investors from leaving them behind because China’s currency is not very worthwhile, even if it is a global reserve currency, no other country uses it. China is completely dependent on international sources of energy, coal, natural gas, oil, for its energy needs. It’s already becoming more expensive to manufacture in China. You’re already seeing manufacturing leave because of these increased costs. They can only inflate the bubble so much before it pops. Hence my skepticism. I have no idea if China will exist in its current form in 2050, it might implode tomorrow. Still not my point. My point is to take anything the CCP says with a heaping tablespoon of salt because they have a directly vested interest in continued economic growth and prosperity, we can’t trust their numbers 100% of the time.
How do you know this? It looks like you are fueling your own prejudices rather than being objective.
@@PaulMitchell-uj1uu See the current rolling blackouts and real estate companies defaulting on their debt in China for reference and the history of the CCP lying for their own benefit.
@@danwelterweight4137 China is literally only a 10th as wealthy as the USA, they're barely inside the top 100 if you adjust for population. They are a poor nation. 75% of China's wealth is in construction. And would you look at that, their construction industry is about to collapse. Meanwhile, the US spends 75% of it's wealth on commodities, which are far more valuable economically. I do listen to Chinese people. And they all say the same thing: China is a place of corruption, and only a very few are wealthy. Chinese people have an incredibly high level of personal debt, and very low personal wealth. The countryside is filled with tens of millions of peasants with no opportunity to improve their conditions. Get out of here, wumao. You're not kidding anyone. China is a joke, and by the end of this decade, they'll be lucky if they're still a single nation.
I knew that was going to happen! I agree with what Andy Vu said it would be great if they would have merged themselves with Saab. Unfortunately , Fokker no longer makes aircraft which is a real sad. However BAE systems would have been a good choice too!
BAE SYSTEMS are airbus. That's how airbus started.
Agreed, but BAE now with Airbus so Embraer themselves need to look around for other options
Yesss Coby’s back
I don't know why you would say that there is less work for Embraer planes, since the pandemic sales of private planes have skyrocketed so I don't understand why would Embraer sold their business
You're thinking of the same as I. It would be another Volvo story (just with airplanes).
What happened to Volvo?
@@notbillnye8536 Volvo is since 2010 Chinese, is doing well, and probably wouldn't have survived without Chinese investors.
As l? Prepositions take the accusative case. (A. Pedant)
@@Luke_Go True but for the time being they've still operated more-or-less independently where design and build is concerned.
@@rrice1705 I'm sure that Chinese officials were deeply involved with Volvo's decision to switch to an all-electric fleet...
The "more-or-less" can be seen with pharmaceuticals (Syngenta), ports, roads, railways, and many other examples. If it works, then good. If not, then the Chinese are smart and do what is best for them long-term.
Born in America, grew up in Everett, very loyal to Boeing as a result... but have flown a lot on Finnair since moving to Europe, very impressed with the Embraer 190
Thanks for the video.
Fact: Videos with the most likes and channels with the most subscribers never beg viewers for either.
Perhaps once the markets stabilize and the 737 dumpster fire is put out, Boeing and Embraer could revisit a partnership. I actually really like Embraer jets, they're small but comfy, I couldn't ever get back on one if the sold out to China
Really? You couldn't get on a Chinese backed plane? Yet you write on a Chinese made computer or phone? ...
Isn't the eJet series hampered by US regional seat restrictions that had expected to increase, but didn't?
The new ones, yes
The larger ones are being flown mainline, I think Delta does, American might, JetBlue does, Air Canada does.
@@jaysmith1408 Wiki doesn't show those operators.
@@jimmiller5600 checked again, JetBlue still does, Air Canada sold them and bought Bombardiers and 737’s (strange), was wrong about Delta, and US Air did, American sold them last year.
@@jaysmith1408 Agreed. I think the pilot work rules defining mainline versus regional is really hurting this product in North America. They're fine aircraft.
3 views, 6 likes…
RUclips, you good?
It could be that some people like it while watching ads
@@thetraveler1515 Hmm yeah
For Airbus to break into the US market, they didn't only have to produce a product that was far better than anything Boeing had to offer, they also had to exercise some EXTREMELY aggressive marketing (basically giving Eastern Airlines what amounted to a free trial of the first few A300s). Airlines based in America required a lot of coaxing to buy a European product, given how jingoistic they are I seriously doubt a Chinese jet would get a foothold there.
I can't imagine Europe would be keen on letting some Chinese upstart to just roll in and encroach on its premier aviation industry either. (Yeah, I know they're South American, but that probably won't stop Boeing and Airbus playing up the China connection if Embrier gets bought out)
Excellent episode. Original and thought provoking.
I don't know if you really don't understand the situation or just try to belittle China Comax.
The biggest reason that comax have small international buyer is USA. USA were threatening other countries not to buy comax.
Second, many countries that don't have their aeroplane certification simply trust FAA, and FAA doing a politics to prevent China to win against USA.
Okay, wumao. Your masters just make bad planes, sorry
As someone whose job is to study China (specifically, the endeavors and aspirations of the CCP) through the lens of international security cooperation, a deal like this (despite how much I’d like this to be a win-win for Embraer and the average Chinese citizen) has to be avoided unless the CCP agrees to enforceable and de-escalatory geopolitical concessions - (which is possible, but is something the CCP is, unfortunately, not likely to do).
True. And to be fair, the US and the allies that it has influenced need to do the same.
China CCP is utterly and completely untrustworthy. They will do ANYTHING to benefit themselves.
How about if NATO does a complete overhaul - learning from their Afghanistan faux pas - and instead of pushing a weapons culture approach to 'defense' if it could go back 20 years and instead of snubbing UNESCO's Culture of Peace world movement - if NATO could pick up on this. Now is the time to convert the $1.8 trillion annual expenditure of the world on weapons, if that money could begin to finance climate solutions.
Hey, i like your videos but if there is one thing you can improve, it's the sound quality. Invest in some acoustic foam panels. Everything will sound better
Yeah, it's a bit echoey. But then and again, it makes this channel "unique" in a way.
The Boeing deal with Embraer was only for comemrcial aircraft, so splitting military from commecial was already envisaged and possible. Boeing pulled out because of the finacial problems of its 737 as well as COVID. I am not so sure that getting Embraer isn't part of Boeing's long term plans. Consider Boeing creating a new narrowbody to replace both 737 and 757 and leaving the smaller plane market to "its" Embraer products (like Airbus ditched the 318 rto the A220 and I would argue the 319 as well).
Without Embraer's 100-130 seaters, Boeing's narrowbody plans might have to include too large of a range to span from 737-7 to the 757-300.
.
BTW, Bombardier didn't team up with Airbus. It started to build 3 aircraft at the same time (C-Series, Global 7500 and Lear 85) and all were late and overbudget and BBD then diverted cash from railway to fund aircraft, causing railway to become late in all deliveries and costing it money and losing contracts. The end result was quasi bankruptcy. The QUébec government purchased shared in the C-series programme, and when it saw BBD wouldn't come out of it alive, struck the deal to have Airbus buy it from Bombardeir. (the Québec governments till holds a 20% or 25% share in the A220 program which is technically a separate company from Airbus). It is ironic that Bombardier had to liquidate all its assets because of the provate jet business taking all the cash, and that unwanted division is all it has left.
From a climate change perspective, the CRJ sized jets are gone. Bombardier developped the C-series because it knew there was no future for smaller jets. It had also abandonned the Dash-8 (Q400) and deHavilland Canada who got the Dash8 and all other ex deHavilland products fropm Bombardeir is hopping to rescussitate it. United has already announced intentions to retire ita CRJ fleet over time. (now supported by Mitsubishi who bought the rights during Bombardier quasi-liquidation).
So what remains to be seen is what aircraft sizes have a future, and I am betting that Boeing is seriously cogitating on what the future holds for the smaller 737 and if there will be market for smaller than 130 seats.
In perspective: economics pushed airlines to put 9 across on 787 and 10 across on 777, each designed for 8 and 9 across respectively. Will economics support small 737s ?
The C-Series/A220 will do a good job replacing CRJ with more capacity but likely less frequency. But for how long?
It should be noted that the CRJ's headays predate the post 9-11 mergers in USA. Deltas had a huge CRJ hub in Cincinatti. But once it bought Northwest, it now had enough passengers to warrant a hub in Detroits using bigger jets. Same with IUnited-Continental merger.
I saw the futrure is still very foggy and it is hard to tell exactly what planes will be needed in the narrowbody field. (especially if Europe starts to restrict domestic flights for climate change reasons).
Embraer is building a turboprop that uses the E-Jet fuselage and other components. Engines will be in the rear. Turboprops make sense in many markets from a climate and economic perspective.
Southwest, which is in the top ten (even 5th) by passenger miles only flies 737. There is a market and business model that supports that size of jet, at least in the us.
@@georue98 Southwest isn't big enough to warrant Boeing making special 737s just for them. If they are the only ones requesting a small 737 to serve smaller cities, it may not be a large enough order to justify Being going through the exercise of mking such a plane (aka: 737-7 whcih only just now got the OK). And when Boeing replaces 737/757, the smaller optiosn may go away for real. So if WN wants to continue service smaller cities, may be forced to diversity fleet.
Yeah I do believe that what Boeing needs is to team up with Mitsubishi ASAP!
SAS Link are going to get the E195 E1's by next year
Last I checked, Boeing is totally willing to put its customers at risk for profit. Dreamliner anyone....
And what is so wrong with the Dreamliner. I flew Perth to London on one of these aircraft. Nothing but perfection. I would be more concerned at the problems the A350 has with paint issues. Dangerous.
There were definitely some quality control issues with the Dreamliner but no way near as bad as the 737 MAX scandal with hundreds dead and injured.
excuse me? the dreamliner is noothing but perfection. amazing plane. you're not gonna talk about the 737 max?
@@johnvandeven2188 bad paint more dangerous that tools left overs in the Dreamliners? They also have bad paint, is that dangerous? Greedy management. I wouldn’t be safe on one of their planes. Watch Downfall.
Proppably, Embraer will get "Bing-Chillinged"
I'm kind of surprised that the E195-E2 has slow sales, it seems like a well-priced alternative to the A220 or B737 Max 7 and as far as I know its operating costs are competitive, but the Airbus and Boeing will probably be more popular with Travelers. Maybe a video on that subject could be in order?
If China and The West could get along better, I could see their Comac Aircraft Business having a gradual but successful future, but tensions seem to be getting much worse. If there was a Western embargo of China for example, operators of even a combined Comac/Embraer Corporation Aircraft could be out in the cold for service and parts. I also doubt that Comac will sell many aircraft outside of China for the same reason, lack of support and slow availability of parts. Maybe Embraer could help them with that but a lot depends on the Chinese Government. I see a lot of hurdles to a merger, but maybe a cooperation agreement?
Not surprised.
1. E-jet was an essential monopoly. Now E2 face competitions from Bombardier and later on Airbus.
2. E175 was scope compliant. E2 isn't. A large chunk of market is no longer addressible as a result.
This ain't going to happen. If this was 2015 such a merger might be possible but not in 2021. If you haven't noticed China and the United States are on a war-footing. The United States has imposed export sanctions on aerospace products to China which has hurt Comac. U.S. export restrictions are Comac's biggest problem. I have no doubt that China has quietly retaliated which is why supply chains have broken down between the east and west. This is why US auto factories are shut down because they cannot get Chinese electronic components.
If China were to buy Embraer it just means that Embraer will not be able to sell any more planes to the United States or US servile countries. Embraer doesn't have anything that China already has. Embraer is just an airframe manufacturer. It sources critical components, e.g. engines and avionics from the US and other western countries. If China were to suddenly own Embraer - Embraer could well see its supply of U.S. components cut off. If that happened they could not build any plane for any market.
People need to realize we are in perilous time. The trade war between China and the US (started by Trump and ramped up by Biden) is very intense and it is hurting both countries (inflation anybody?) It could soon break out into a hot war which if it turns nuclear means the end of the world as we know it.
A merger between Embraer and Mitsubishi might make more sense.
given recent news of the E-jet family being favored in the regional market pos-covid, and Embraer officials saying that they estimate that the chinese market could need a total of 1500 new planes with up to 150 seats for regional routes in the next 20 years, it seems, at least to me, that they plan to stick to their guts and charge ahead without selling the company or partnering with Comac, or anyone, for that matter.
And with the recent reveal of their next plane being a turboprop in the ~100 seat category, they seem to be happy dominating the regional market where the big two don't offer any decent services.
The new E-Jet family has not defiantly not been favored. It's sales numbers are pretty bad.
great work
Congrats of 75K subscribers
Boeing royally screwed up by not purchasing Embraer
ERJs are just so nice, quiet, comfortable. Great planes.
The situation w/China seeking a market where their C919 & other aircraft may be successful like South America, which would almost certainly involve a merger w/Embraer, is similar to the way Sukhoi sought out markets that'd be potentially interested in a cheaper alternative to what Boeing & Airbus offered, like w/Aeromexico. Granted there wasn't a merger involved in that deal, but both situations involve an aircraft manufacturer seeking out alliance's. Whether it be w/airline's or manufacturer's in parts of the globe where there'd be significantly less competition w/the duopoly of Airbus & Boeing, as well as area's that would trade an aircraft that performs less efficiently w/less capabilities, for one that costs significantly less...not to mention would be delivered quicker due to shorter backlogs.
One winner from all of this, at least for the short to intermediate term: GE, which from what I understand makes the engines for COMAC. Long GE.
Well not quite. The engines in the C919 are currently CFM same as on the MAX and A320neo but in 'LEAP-1C' configuration. GE is just a joint partner with SAFRAN.
Of course the Chinese have already made a copy in the AVIC Commercial Aircraft Engine Co ACAE CJ-1000A engine. Any resemblance between the two is purely coincidental. Apparently.
I like the Embraer jets, the ERJ 145 and 175 is far superior to the CRJ 200 and 700, in fact the 175 isnt much below the A320 series in comfort
It's much confier
Comfort? What's that? An airplane is a cigar tube with windows and wings.
Boeing and Embraer need to kiss and make up.
I imagined that and it's weird, in the least.
Boeing has so many issues right now, i doubt it's high on the priority list.
LOL no shot
I don't think it will happen. Boeing is not doing well after the 787 fiasco. Boeing would probably take the E2 family and rename it into Boeing 7somethingsomething and the Embraer brand would be killed.
Nice Video 👍
Thanks Mate
Great video!!
Damn… is Coby getting “Swalwelled” ???
Lolll
Embraer business with China will certainly benefit everyone, and I believe Brazilian distance from quite stupid conflicts among China and other Western countries is a good thing.
You so easily blow off tensions between 2 huge nuclear powers... okay if you say so.
@@dalemtb1199 that is okay then
Stop with the pressure, already !
It subscribed. I mean, i subscribed.
*
Thumbs up, and a comment. The algorithm gods are pleased.
I'm excited to see what new knowledge I'll obtain.
He also has forgotten that it’s not just manufacturing, it’s the maintenance network. Comac has no network or track record. Therefore Comac aircraft is such a huge risk. Not to mention the security risk.
C919 has literally been test flying with FAA I don't see why there's any safety issue... plus state owned or not all those three airliners are super competitive and it's all about the deal that the government offered them to buy C919. nothing to be a self purchase at all
Another factor is aftermarket sales, until comac had a proven system in place to provide all necessary manufacturing, distribution and installation of parts western markets would find it easier to stick with Boeing and Airbus not to mention that Boeing and Airbus do have commonalities I.e engines and avionics.
Personally I can’t really say bad things about Boeing as a company because they hired me and gave me a good job and I didn’t have much experience at all. I worked there for 5 years before Muilenburg took over. When he did the overall culture changed. It was a Boeing I no longer recognized. To be fair though (way before I even started working for them) when Boeing took over McDonald Douglas that’s when their safety culture tanked IMO. Muilenburg just made it worse.
Muilenburg is an engineer, sounded perfect for the company , but sadly things didn't unfold well under him . I kind of like him , but sadly he didn't handle things well I guess . It was sad to see him go but sadder for the lives that where lost in both crashes
Good analysis
Excellent and most informative video! The Covid pandemic has pretty much killed the passenger jumbo jet program. Jumbos will remain but as freighters. The future of passenger travel is medium sized, long range aircraft, a COMAC/ Embraer collaboration could dominate that market.
Except that you forget that airbus has the c series/a220 witch can still be strech by a lot.
"they must be assembled with amazing care" meanwhile Boeing uses day labor and pays $9 an hour to have code written 😀
Same people for the 787-Max? LOL
Any way to get more competition would be a good thing
Rumor is circulating in Korea that Korean defense/aircraft company, KAI(Korea Aerospace Industry) and Hanwha aerospace are considering buying Embraer separately or jointly.
Do they have money for that?
If the Boeing deal went through, then quality of Embraer would soon be at Boeing levels, and we'd all be flying Chinese jets sooner or later.
A lot has changed in 6 months. China is not doing so well. Seems to be getting worse.
Except Boeing makes high-quality airplanes.
@@triple7marc They do...in China
@@twotone3471 And in the rest of the world, too. There’s a reason the 737 is the most popular commercial airplane.
@@triple7marc The Chinese 737's didn't kill thier crews and passengers though. So, no. Add to that Airbus's better offerings and Embraer's better quality.
that's a bad think, embraer + china
Will Completely destroy Embraer brand and reputation!
Good video man
Perhaps trying to break the duopoly is not a good Idea. Better focus on regional jets and regional partners and keep being first on what It does best.
I've flown in everything. Embraer are so nice. Comfy, quiet. I hope they have a lot of success.
Since the engines are from PW, perhaps the US most likely won't be too eager to see the idea come to fruition.
I fly the Embraer. They didn't do a good job of building a positive relationship with my airline. When the time came to pick the next fleet to replace them, Embraer thought they were gonna get it. The airline quickly shut them down for another fleet option.
Very good video and a premise that is a bit scary. However, design and manufacturing alone are not the whole picture. The Soviet aircraft industry produced many well designed and well manufactured planes. But they did not sell well outside The Block. Why? Spare arts and logistics. What two companies are best at parts and logistics for aircraft maintenance? Boeing and Airbus. Any airline looking to buy planes wants to ensure they can keep them flying and meet government maintenance requirements with minimum downtime. An aircraft only makes money when it is flying passengers!
Great video and take on the potential take over. it’s worth noting that in preparation of the Boeing takeover, Embraer was already separating its Military and commercial divisions. So it’s not a far stretch of the imagination to see that the Military portion of the company could stay in Brazil.
Finally they put you back on my RUclips recommendations
I liked the animation of your logo intro.
An important correction of a crucial piece of information that is wrong in this video: General Mourão is NOT the highest-ranking officer in the Brazilian military. He's the Vice President of the country, so it's merely by chance that he's military. He was picked up in a hurry because Bolsonaro's political party (a very small one until then) didn't have better names and the legal deadline for the registration of Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy was looming. So, Mourão was not exactly chosen to compose the ballot, he was rather reluctantly accepted because there was no feasible alternative. Mourão has no real power in the government, is not in the line of command of the Armed Forces, and has always had a very uneasy relationship with the President, who would certainly have got rid of him by now if he could, but he can't, as the Vice President is elected for the same term as the President, and their term is legally one and the same.
Any possible agreement between Embraer and China will certainly not happen as long as Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil. From the beginning, the Bolsonaro government has always had turbulent relations with China, which the government has repeatedly portrayed to its core supporters as an "evil Communist empire" guilty of all sorts of bad things (followed by protests from the Chinese Embassy and unconvincing, insincere apologies from the government, in a ritual that has happened on a lot of occasions), and the government can't back off too much from that for domestic political reasons. Yet China is Brazil's biggest market for exports, and Brazil is a key supplier of many raw materials the Chinese economy needs, so neither country can afford a complete rupture. Still, an agreement between Embraer and the Chinese would be unthinkable at this moment.
Ciro Gomes ia another presidential candidate that would almost certainly veto a Chinese takeover of Embraer.
By the way: it's a pleasure to see you here, Goytá!
One should never sell ones soul to the devil
But the devil offers so much for just one measly mortal soul 🤷🏾♂️
@@King_of_Africa Not these cheap bastards! 😂
i would not want to fly on a chinese plane i can see a lot of safety issues with the mass produced planes that probably cost $100 each
@Guy Zilla aircraft 2021 boing 373 twin engine long range narrow body airplane aircraft plane boeing airbus
@@opalb9006 🤣
You really have no idea
U can fly 737 max
Some pieces from Airbus planes are made in China, sadly.
Bombardier is an aircraft building company that also makes trains.
I see it as a train building company that also makes aircraft.
Good analysis.
The merger isn't good for the U.S., or the E.U., and they would be upset if the two companies merged as we don't want to see Western technology going to China.
Western aircraft technology is already in China.
You should tell Boeing and airbus to stop assembly plane in China
@@moilol9424 they used to manufacture it in the USA as well. It's sad to see them shift to China and China now being the place on manufacturing. I hope manufacturing jobs are brought back from China in the future.
In a market with such thin profit margins as commercial air travel, having more aircraft manufacturers actually makes things WORSE. How? Because it costs money to keep repair technicians and spare parts on-staff for each make and model of airplane, and airplane sales are nowhere near numerous enough to be able to support a wider variety of models without losing what little economies-of-scale they currently benefit from.
This is why Spirit Airlines and other ULCCs stick with only one family of airliner. (The Airbus 320 in this case). It reduces the cost of maintenance, but at the cost of the entire fleet being grounded if an Airworthiness Directive that takes more than a day to address is issued.
It will make sense if 1) you can make the planes safe and cheaper, 2) you can provide more jobs for your country, 3) you can sell these safe and cheaper planes to poor countries, 4) you allow your country to move up the manufacturing chain, etc. So, it actually has more to do than just profit margin.
cannot help but think there has been some major fleecing of embraer's earnings over the years, cracking little planes sold all over the world, below the pricing battle of a320/737 territory, a superb little freighter and all in theory built in a lower cost base than usa/europe........where has it all gone that they cannot continue as they started...
While I agree with your premise there is a problem. First there is a worldwide trade war with China and Brazil is very much in the mix. While China would love having a world class aircraft manufacturer under their thumb the Brazilian government will probably not want to hand over their technology to China. I think they would be much better off partnering up with someone like Boom. Given that they are the big fig fish in this scenario Embraer would be in the drivers seat and thus in control of the entire operation. A much better strategy for them. But I may be totally wrong. Just a thought. Seriously tho, great video. Keep up the great work.✈
No way would I get on one. Would be a shame too as the E190s that Virgin Australia used to have that I flew on in the past were great aircraft.
Embraer not for sale to china... Never!
hopefully not ever
As a Brazilian I hope this video title is true
So is the Spirit Airlines review we’ve been asking for gonna happen?
Embraer should look to Australia, Australia needs manufacturing and jobs and has the cash.
Its currently too expensive for labor and the government is too uncooperative to manufacture there. Thats why they lost all the auto manufacturing.
@@porcelainthunder2213 I know but I can hope
COMAC is already working with UAC for a widebody competitor to the A350 and 787. If they acquire Embraer it’s pretty likely that the triple alliance of Russian, Chinese and Brazilian companies will cripple the entire Asian market for Airbus and Boeing. The west, however? Unlikely, since certification and safety issues like you mentioned, despite both the 787 and 737 MAX problems haunting Boeing’s primary customers.
The biggest, sweetest blow to the Western duopoly they could do right now is a “middle of the market” plane whose dimensions are similar to a 767-200. Regional jet markets are pretty crowded here in Asia, therefore it would be a great opportunity to sell a 200-250 seat widebody.
If Embraer gets involved then they will bring their safety standarts with them, so not really a big issue. Even if such aircraft developed from this partnership doesnt gain traction in the US the aviation markets in Brazil and Mexico are not irrelevant, and Brazil has very strict safety standarts. And this video presents a very unlikely scenario, Bolsonaro will leave office next year, and the 2 most likely presidents (Lula and Ciro Gomes) both are way more nationalist than Bolsonaro they will not sell Embraer to anyone. And Embraer is not in such a dire situation as presented, given the situation they are doing pretty good actually, they have military contracts, they are developing new transport planes for the airforce (Embraer STOUT) and are diversifing into building e-vtols (those glorified electric helicopters, pretty neat stuff actually)
@@Gui1The Thanks for the insight! Guess Boeing is still royally screwed then, which I’m more than happy to rejoice for.
Dumb statement
as long as they keep buying toray carbon... keep my stock up.. this is gonna be interesting
Fun fact: C919 is already a cooperation between COMAC and bombardier, they share virtually the same cockpit design between C919 and CS(aka A220).
They're completely independent designs. Neither company ever worked together...
You mean they stole the design?
I’d like to see Lockheed come out with another passenger jet. Pan Am had a few, my dad flew the 707 and 747, but always said the L1011 was miles ahead of both of them.
If they're building jets like they do buildings , I'm gonna look out for the sky falling
Awesome COMAC
The failed Boeing-Embraer deal was a marketing partnership. There is no appetite to sell Embraer to a foreign aircraft manufacturer. Airbus scored with getting equity, under the C-Series (now A220) under its umbrella of product offerings.
I think you're missing a few vital points in your assessment, and both revolve around Embraer making small regional jets:
1/ At 7:42 you said "while the market for commercial jets stabilises", but the Airbus A220 (which is in a *very* close market to the E2 jets) doesn't seem to be having many problems selling jets.
2/ Although regional jet manufacturing has the same basic principles to making large jets, it is not the same. The larger jets are more complicated, and Embraer has zero knowledge of large commercial jets.
It *could* be beneficial for the Chinese government to buy Embraer (putting asside the military problem), but it may be limited to getting the name out there; the understanding that the Chinese government owns this, and there may be some advantages to the build processes of the 919, but I'm not sure the advantages for the Chinese go much further than this.
- "Airbus & Boeing's worst nightmare is about to come true."
That's just silly (not to mention clickbaiting). Boeing's biggest worries are Airbus and the mess Boeing has created itself. Airbus' biggest worry are coming greenhouse gas emission regulations and possible limits to air trafic. Comac of course is a potential threat, but certainly won't have a serious effect on the market at least for the next twenty years. If you want expert content about these matters, you have to go elsewhere. Little of it is on RUclips.
We don't know yet, but if I allied to do something with a contrie, I will choose Japan. And I don't know why, my brain is telling me that.🤷♂️
I like that Jardier Intro Music xD
Can you make a video on why the Embraer (especially the new E2) jets have huge gaps between the windows?
Embraer would have to be galactically stupid to partner with Comac.
Embraer is not in the position to have the last word on who to partner with. They will partner with whoever buys it
@@Shifftee The Brazilian government certainly could and should have something to say about it and should block it if it comes to that. Otherwise Brazil can kiss it's aircraft industry goodbye.
Very unlikely to happen given all the global issues. And rarely has it been a good idea to parter too heavily with China.
And that's the problem. Brazil's main trading partner is bloody China.
Isnt the ARJ 21 a copy of the DC9/MD80 and i believe they have GE engines
You are correct Darren. McDonnell Douglas left all tooling, machinery equipment and manuals behind. China saw a easy opportunity to “build” their own jet.
@@brawnbenson552 yes thats right there were MD80s, MD90s, and i think maybe 717s that were assembled in China and i believe some A320 series were assembled in China, pretty smart move by China
Have you done a video on why China has three state run airlines and not just one? If not you should!
Australia used to have two government owned airlines serving a much smaller market. They were both sold off years ago but more than one could make sense. One enormous airline serving that huge market could become very inefficient.