Canada's Inflation Reality... What They’re Not Telling You!
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- Опубликовано: 16 июн 2024
- In this episode of Ruffled Feathers, we dive deep into the reality of inflation in Canada and uncover what the headlines aren't telling you. With inflation numbers showing a slight decrease, is there really a reason to celebrate? We'll break down the latest figures, analyze the components of the inflation basket, and discuss how these changes impact Canadian households. We dive into the OSFI's annual risk outlook for 2024-2025. With 76% of Canadian mortgages coming due by the end of 2026, we discuss the significant payment shocks homeowners will face and what this means for the Canadian housing market. We also analyze the latest inflation data, questioning whether there's real cause for celebration. Join us as we break down these critical issues and answer your questions. Don't miss this essential discussion for anyone concerned about the future of their home and finances!
Questions from Viewers Like You!
0:00 Canadian Market Update
10:45 What hidden costs should I be aware of when taking out a mortgage?
13:59 Wow do you handle situations where a client's financial circumstances change?
16:18 Why would a realtor suggest to waive of financing condition?
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Leave your questions, comments and feedback below! Thanks for tuning in hope you enjoyed!
you mentioned that you should make sure to validate that their are multiple offers prior to waiving any conditions? what's the best way to do that?
I watched this until 9:00 and you dropped an F-bomb. Now I have subscribed.
cpi doesn’t account for shrinkflation. This is huge. You might buy a loaf of bread for 4% more but that loaf is 10% less in weight.
That’s a very, very good point
Hedonics
Indeed, the basket they use is not indicative of what people actually purchase either. And they can use different measure of core / non-core. Nevermind that they can swap goods for ‘substitutes’ to massage the numbers. Hmmmm, salmon is too expensive as times are tough, so a can of sardines is a reasonable substitute. Oh look! The cost of fish has actually deflated now!!!! At may firm we don’t use CPI in the US for anything other than a measure of how markets will react to an arbitrary number. Junk in, junk out. Some call it the random number generator as a joke.
StatsCan records shrinkflation as a price increase.
@@TheRecurrencewrong. Prove yourself right, idiot.
I don't know what contributed to inflation more: government money printing or international money laundering
or both
See Rich Dias's pinned tweet.
Unless the money launderers own a bank, or create counterfeit money, they don't effect inflation, beyond the fact that they don't normally save or invest, so it increases velocity, but the number of dollars does not change.
2.7% more like 27% LOL
Real inflation %20
The true inflation rate is closer to 18%.
What they don't say is that it is compounded. So as inflation rate drops. The newer lower inflation rate is applied to a higher priced value. eg:
10.00+ 10%= 11 (1.00)
11+ 9%= 11.99 (.99)
11.99+ 8%= 12.94 (.95)
12.94+ 7%= 13.84 (.90)
13.84+ 6%= 14.67 (.83)
14.67+ 5%= 15.40 (.73)
So over 6 years it is very deceptive because while the inflation rate drops by 1 percent per year, in my made up example, the actual amount an item increases in value goes up. So after 6 years while it originally went up 1 dollar in the first year, by year 6 with the much lower interest rate its still going up .73
Therefore the amount an item increases in price vs. the inflation rate will not seem connected if its still going up in price at such a high amount.
Good to see some sanity on the Internet for a change.
Very interesting on the basket change. While I don't know why they changed the basket, it is interesting the YoY changes can have big basket shifts.
$5.99 for a small head of lettuce. $54.70 for 34 litres of gas.
$68.00 for the gas in Victoria. Thanks Trudeau / Singh.
Nope no inflation there at all ! All is good in the land of unicorns and sunshine!
It seems like there will be more distressed sellers but if they sell where will they go?
I love how coffee goes up 75% so they replace it with something else 🙄
I don't think their cooking the books. The reason the share in each basket under CPI is dropping is because there is that much more unemployment in the economy, where laid off people have severely cut down on expenses. Also, as the increased as costs of borrowing remain elevated, the amount of discretionary spending has fallen, mind you, even as population has grown considerably with the recent influx of immigration.
Got a mortgage in 2021 at 1.64%. But I went accelerated bi weekly payments and I do the occasional lump sum payments on top of that. My 25 year mortgage is already down to 18. With still 2 years before renewal.
Great job!
I got a ten year mortgage # 3.20%. I'm aggressively paying forward towards principle ( $1000/mo. in recent months). Accelerated weekly payment. I'm told by others I'm doing a fantastic job. I think so too. I hope people that must renew get the best rate possible. Go to many banks and other financial institutions. Do your research.
The tune is slowly starting to change out of these guys
Truer words never spoken!
The world has gone to Hell inside 4 years.
And why is this a problem for us who don't own assets? I don't understand, isn't it a free market, or is it just a free market on the way up?
Exactly because homeowners represent a more powerful electorate it's also about protecting the banks and tax revenues for government
I wonder at which point it will be politically profitable to keep inflation in-check as around 2/3rds of canadians have no mortgage payments. Renters only get squeezed if the rates are cut. The rest that own their houses mortgage free and that are retired on a fixed income might care more about overall inflation being lower, even if it means sacrificing some equity.
It will eventually get to the point where the wants of the voters will be at odds with the banks and government. Is it already happening now?
Shock and awe
If interest rates do drop significantly, it will be because we are already in a severe recession, which means high unemployment, which means massive mortgage defaults. The only people who will benefit are those holding a lot of cash to purchase distressed properties. However, that will only work out well if you buy after higher rates and selling pressure force prices down. That said, when I look at macro trends, I truly believe we could be at a multi-generational, inflation-adjusted high in property prices.
I already put most of my money into long term bonds knowing full well with all the lies about inflation in Canada rates will end up back at zero while rates stay about 5.5 percent in America.
@@parkerbohnn I'm not sure what you mean by "lies about inflation" but treasuries may not be a bad short-term bet for the capital appreciation, if not the coupon. But do you really believe long rates will go to zero?
Never waive your financing condition, especially in a declining market! The property may not appraise at the value you offered and then you're in trouble. We saw this happening in the decline after '08.
Made double of payments weekly over last 4.5 years in a 5 year term, does it make sense to pause payments for an extended period of time? What are the pros and cons
Elimination of debt is a smart move. When you owe nothing, you are no longer a slave to debt and interest rates.
And the American stock market keeps going up.
All stock markets are going up. Don’t forget that inflation plays a big part of this. I believe inflation numbers are going to start bumping up again with salaries all going up between 3% and 5% per year. It is why you can’t get a new house built for less then 1 m in most Canadian cities.
The Chinese real estate ponzi finally imploded the U.S. stock market ponzi is next with at least an 80 percent drop back down to fair market value. I'd say the U.S. stock market is about 5 times more overvalued today than back in the summer of 1929. The stock market dropped 89 percent in the 1229 crash. This time around it will be 90+ percent. I buy deep out of the money puts on the major indexes each month.
Governments and banks will put in place all manner of mitigating policies to stave off defaults,but that will most likely only make things worse.
There could be no delinquencies when RE prices keep rising. Deadbeat borrowers just sold at profit. The picture changes as soon as prices start going down. Banks are trying to prevent spike in delinquencies by freezing payment and growing principal.., but it can be effective only with temporary price moderation, and can last just for a while. With more sustained price recession it starts to endanger system stability
Everything is still going above ask where I live in Markham.
How could the bank even drop the interest ??
Canada's debts were 2.18 trillion in the year 2023, and it will only go up from there because of Trudeau's spending.
The banks want their money back, and it's not by lowering interest that the banks will get their money back.
The
That's why the government must create more taxes like the incoming rain tax.
The housing market is in a bubble. Rates will stay higher then we expect and those that can't afford their mortgage payments will default and probably lose their homes. Inflation will stay high ... just look at the Goldman Sacks Commodity Index it is trending higher ( this basket does not change). The economy does not look good for the average working class person. Fasten your seat belts the ride is going to get real bumpy. Sorry folks. BTW anyone buying real estate in this market needs their head examined.
Higher for longer. That’s it. Might be time to pick up a cottage.
Whereabouts?
@@Rawdiswar Likely on the eastside of 5th and 4th. Whereabouts you fuddyduddy
All of these experts and no one knows a damn thing. Are people really buying these numbers?
Sell, sell, sell.. pay back your mortgage. Own nothing and be happy.
top tier hairline
Covid-19 plan is going strong
My brother signed papers sent by his mortgage broker guantreinh 3.5%, 5 year term, 15 year amortization, acceleratef weekly, in January 2025!!! Owrs $$120,000.
spit it out
why would any one need the cpi to tell us our spending power or lack there of. just look at your pay cheque or bank accounts.
You’re right however most people are so dumbed down they won’t even think that far lol