This crap is so scary. We have a dictatorship on the ballot! And people are acting like it's normal! And we have a guy on his way to turning 81 as our only alternative. This sucks.
Worse, honestly, because if senate goes red this year, 2026 are mainly safe seats, and it will be 2028 before the DNC has a good chance to retake. Would be Trump trifecta, for basicly the whole cycle.
If the Dems lose the presidency they are losing the Senate. No way John Tester and Sharrod Brown survive an environment where Republicans win the popular vote
I was called in a poll phone call in Washington state but as the question went … it started to show it was more of a political propaganda then a poll for Republican candidates in Washington. I asked the caller if that was a poll paid by the Republican Party and she said she couldn’t confirm, but she did give the company name that was doing the poll. Unfortunately I didn’t write down
Has anyone been asked to participate in the price is right? I have never been asked in my life. I mean more people have been on the price is right then a poll sampling so. You have a higher chance of shaking Biden or Trumps hand than being polled.
I'm voting anti-fascist, anti Project 2025. I find both presidential candidates repulsive, but Biden/Harris are going to be the lesser evil. I'm also expecting Harris to take over.
Really glad to see Ettingermentum getting more speaking slots, I have always really liked his CTH appearances! Great ability to boil down information for the masses.
The crucial poll question is not whether people think he should stand aside, it is 'will they vote for him if he does stand '. The first question is about what people think other people will do. The second is what they themselves will do.
She's more popular than him, so they are leaning on her since they can't lean on him. Joe's ego hasn't changed that he believes that he is the only person who should be allowed to be President, though.
We already have polling that tells us that she does better than Joe, but it's simpler than that: There are no "Biden or bust" people. Everyone who supports Biden in 2024 are Blue MAGA folks who will vote for any dem no matter what. Dems are popular & Biden is not. Swap out Biden & we only stand to gain.
Well, I’m getting a lot of campaign messages asking me how much I like the idea of Kamala Harris as the president (and then asking me to donate, natch), so I think they’re probably getting pretty good polling on that.
I would rather vote for Kamala. I'm furious at Joe being an active accessory to gin ó side. I'm voting antifascism/project 2025, though. Project 2025 makes the choice super-clear.
@@dr.zoidberg8666 I think the retort to that is that the reason Biden needs to be switched out is to attract the NON "BIDEN OR BUST" cohort. Can Kamala help drive THAT group to the polls to vote Dem?
I think you are correct that Biden inner circle just wants to string things along until time runs out. He will lose lose to Trump but he will have the satisfaction of defeating all the democratic alternatives.
I think at this point, the Democrats see the writing on the wall and know our country is at a crossroads. Either we can upend the capitalist system by embracing socialism or we can quintuple down on a wealthy person's paradise (or our hellscape) by drifting into fascism. Democrats are so beholden to donors, they're willing to risk our country devolving into the Fourth Reich than to force a rich person into giving up an extra dime per dollar in taxes.
Pundits were calculating every traditional predictor of election results but completely ignored a new but obvious predictive tool and that is "GOP Crazy". Fortunately, GOP crazy is at an all time high going into this election cycle.
Good points! 1."Convention nomination is a committment to democracy" + 2. "people won't be mad at you for giving them what they want". Trump 's campaign to keep Biden tells you everything you need to know.
Trump will lose. If Biden runs it will be a landslide, if others run the races will be closer. Trump def. doesn't want Biden to run, that's a fake story. He's on tape talking about how easy Kamala would be to win against. He wants Joe out, it's the only way he even has a chance to win.
Trump doesn't understand how elections work lol Keeping Biden is the problem for Trump, replacing him leaves the candidacy completely unknown and without any ground game or track record.
They would never do that . Why people are even willing to vote democrat at this point is crazy to me . I mean after 2016 the party should have been thrown away and a new left party out it’s ashes
While replacing Biden at the Convention would be responsive to what people want, I worry this would set the precedent that could be used for the party to switch out any leftist candidate at the last minute. I remember when Bernie had the most delegates, he was the only candidate who argued the candidate with the most delegates should win. I think it would be best if Biden could somehow be persuaded to step aside.
Trump should be steamrolled by a Democratic candidate. One of the unspoken aspects of the debate is not whether it was a one-off that should somehow be ignored. Any Democratic candidate debating Trump should demolish Trump for his string of misconduct. How can anyone debating Trump not crush him? Instead Biden lost badly.Does Biden own a mirror? Does he watch any of the videos of his appearances? Biden should resign now and allow Harris to run as the incumbent and allow the nomination of an interesting VP candidate. Harris would have a big jump in approval once she becomes President. The "Biden crime family" BS would be gone. The "sleepy Joe" issue would be gone. The most Trump would have are his continual lies about the last three years and incoherent rambling about Harris' personal life thirty years ago. Is Harris my first choice? No. But the scenario with her running as an incumbent with a new name for VP gives Democrats the best chance of success, by far.
This was BEFORE Biden press conference and campaign appearances. Now polling like Marist n Split Ticket have Biden gaining, up 2%- head to head or up 1% w 3rd parties included.
The idea that there is a thought process involved gives them too much credit. This is 100% about how they feel about the current situation. The majority of these freaks prefer Biden losing to Trump when they could have something truly terrible, like a person who isn't at least 70.
I am not black, but I hear black people in comments being very supportive of Harris. They also think people who cannot respectfully say her name properly and insist on calling her by her first name only and not even saying it correctly sound like racists. Clean it up fellas I am a progressive and I get tired of defending progressives talking this way in comments it gives us a bad rep please try to be more respectful
I hear black people being really pissed that they voted for a candidate in a primary and then Democratic elites decide the candidate needs to go. Rich white men like Clooney and corporate donors are trying to force the guy they endorsed out. But hey, it's all good--young white leftists want Kamala to step up and replace him. She black, so that should be fine for black people right? Maybe it's just me but that comes across as condescending and racist af.
The narrative about pronouncing Kamala Harris’s name incorrectly did not materialize out of thin air. It was prompted by Tucker Carlson on his show when he was still on FOX. He was told that he was mispronouncing her name yet continued to mispronounce her name intentionally as a sign of disrespect toward her. Right-wing media and viewers followed suit. They need to clean up their act.
I *am* black. Black people care about defeating Trump. Nothing else is anywhere near as important. "Representation" and identity politics is superficial, especially when you have a black face furthering the wealth inequality policies of the donor class.
I think black people don't care as much as you think they do. We call Bernie and Hillary by their first names too. We pick the most distinct part of a politician's name when referring to them, which in the VP's case is "Kamala". He should have the pronunciation down by now though.
"They also think people who cannot respectfully say her name properly and insist on calling her by her first name only and not even saying it correctly sound like racists." GTFO with this nonsense. We always refer to politicians by single names, e.g. Clinton, Obama, Biden, Hillary, Bernie, Warren, etc. The only reason so many of them get referred to by their last name is because Bill, Joe and George are common names. She promoted herself as Kamala, her supporters in 2020 were literally referred to as the K-HIVE, AKA Kamala Hive.
Kinda. I think he's more competent offstage. But I'm terrifically upset with his actions in pal es ti ne. I'm voting against project 2025, regardless of who is at the top of the ticket.
Nope. His problems are mostly due to inflation. Anyone have thoughts on those very rare cases where the incumbent was re-elected following high inflation?
i dunno, his union credentials after his presidency were very strong, both working behind the scenes to get the railroad workers their time off, or him being the first psitting president to address the striking uaw workers. he passed the inflation reduction act despite joe manchin's attempts to destroy literally everything good in it. maybe those transfer as just dnc, but they happened under his watch so they are associated with him.
9:14 That business about those who watched the Nixon-Kennedy debate on TV having a more favorable impression of Kennedy, while those who who listened to the debate on radio favored Nixon, being attributable to Kennedy's better visual impression than Nixon's--might not be the only explanation for the two outcomes. When that debate was held, many Americans still didn't own a TV. Many Americans, worked night shifts or had a day job and a night job or couldn't yet afford a TV. Others were living in rural areas out of range of TV broadcasts. The point being, that those who watched on TV might have been in an economic, educational, and professional class, different from that of the radio listeners. So that the different results between the TV viewers and radio listeners, might have had as much to do with the socioeconomic class of each audience than with the Kennedy's visuals being more persuasive than Nixon's.
He's not so much a predictor as he is a translator of the actual situation. If you aggregate all of the available information you can make an assessment on what the outlook currently is, but he almost never gives a prediction especially this far away from the election.
@Beacon69ers his assessment was pretty much a widespread understanding of the situation. It wasn't a shock that Dobbs fucked the Republicans. Everybody saw that coming. The only people who didn't see it were dumb conservative pundits.
You're misunderstanding the argument - the point isn't that we should believe him because he accurately predicted 2022, the point is that we should believe him because he is making rational data-based arguments and the fact that he predicted 2022 further lends credibility as an example where polling contrasted with the pundits making subjective arguments and the polling was right. The point is that if you look at the data, Biden's prospects are in the toilet and circling, while it's largely pundits (pro-Biden ones this time) making weird hare-brained arguments that fly in contrast with the data. It is the people arguing against Josh's conclusions that are avoiding "predictive validity and scientific basis" by making up all sorts of unfalsifiable rules--an incumbent has a better chance, even when literally 75+% of the electorate thinks he shouldn't run again! Biden can beat Trump, he did it before! (sample size: 1 elections), Kamala will lose because Trump just has some special quality that makes women lose when they run against him (sample size: 1 elections)--and so on.
There’s simply not a sample size large enough to give any credence to someone predicting elections. Variance is a real thing and there are an infinite amount of variables as well as changing conditions that can make a model that worked 4 years ago to be completely useless in this election cycle.
If Harris had Bernie as her VP, she would be guaranteed a win. If she ends up the nominee, Dems will pick Mayor Pete as VP. I've said that since Biden picked her, that is what would happen.
Polling was pretty accurate in 2016. Mist the results were within the margin or error as I recall. But people act like being 1 or 2 points ahead means you are winning when really its a tie and also national polls are less relevant than polls tied to electoral votes.
I got the impression that it looked like such a foregone conclusion on the popular vote polling that people didn't really get anywhere near as granular with the polling in the swing states as they should have. I recall handful of people DID point out that there was a path for Trump from the slim margins in the swing states, though, even if they got very little attention.
@@JPH1138 I am basing my comment on a link that showed all the polls going back at least a year. I used to go to it weekly. I don't remember what the link is. And then separately pundits would say something like "Hillary is beating Trump in 9 of 10 polls! She is a shoe in!" But that gave a very false impression if those 9 of 10 polls were within the margin of error." I get it. I didn't want Trump to win either and hoped the polls were missing something. When Hillary lost it took me about 5 minutes to understand what was happening.
The notion any Democrat will beat Trump except Biden is not convincing. The people calling loudly for Biden to be replaced overestimate the strength of the other potential candidates and underestimate Biden’s. Name a Democrat, and there are always some Democrats who don’t like them. Even the guest admits Harris is not so popular or strong. I am not saying Biden is strong, but the guest underestimates the ability of the Democrats to select a new candidate all the Democrats and independents will get behind.
Look. Project 2025 makes it super clear. I am voting against fas cis m. Trump is denying he is for it, but he's waist deep in project 2025. We have to nail 2025 to his door, because it's fas ci ism.
@@user-be4ou5lq9z So we're going off polling for popular vote bull crap that's meaningless, instead of the electoral college that means everything. Lol got it...
@@soyborne.bornmadeandundone1342 the electoral college still uses the popular vote. Silver wasn't "way off". The election came down to a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states. Additionally Silver gave Trump about a 28% probability of winning the election. I wish more people understood probability and just math in general because these polling discussions with people who don't is frustrating to say the least.
Clinton was ahead 4 points on election night and had a 71% chance to win. At this point in his re-election bid Obama was four points behind Romney. The red wave drastically underperformed. The election for George Santos' empty seat was a dead heat in polling, but dems won by something like 8 points. The point here is not to assume that Joe Biden is guaranteed to win. It's to show the insanity of cowardly blue voters wanting to force out their own incumbent when he is shown with a slight advantage in the current polls AFTER the trainwreck debate and when the media and leftist influencers are shitting on him 24/7.
As much as the debate and the bombardment of Gaza had me not wanting to vote for Biden and wishing he would drop out... over the course of this public debate amongst Democrats, the media and the voters... I have come around to support him...surprising myself the most! I have come to have a better understanding about his overall economic big-picture philosophy, support for unions and the working class, and he has come out and presented a policy platform for the future that is energizing and a great contrast to Project 2025 and the Trump Goon Gang. So maybe this process will energize other people to support him too. I am also confident in VP Kamala Harris, as his back up!
There is not nearly enough recognition on how successful Biden's economic and social policies have been. Inflation has decreased for the first time since 2020. There has been unprecedented economic growth in the left behind rural counties. The US GDP has outpaced every country in the G7. They have even outperformed China for the first time in 20 years. Unemployment is lower than pre covid rates, the monthly job creation numbers have been exceptional.The stock market is up. New infrastructure projects are underway all over the country. Insulin prices have been capped and student loans forgiven. He stood up to OPEC and released US oil reserves to lower gasoline prices. He was instrumental in the expansion of NATO. Why is this all being ignored because he had one disastrous debate. Take a look at his campaigning afterwards. Emma's outrage over the tragedy in Gaza is denying the fact that there is NO path for another candidate. Even Bernie Sanders is backing Joe, because he realizes it's the only way to get progressive policy enacted. Why has the IRS been clamping down on delinquent back taxes from billionaires. Why has the FTC been investigating corporations for anti trust violations. Why has the government been pushing to tax the 1% more? Doesn't that sound like Bernie's influence? A primary replacement of Biden would be disastrous, the candidate would lose. But Netanyahu would still be Prime Minister of Israel and Trump would hand him Gaza on a platter. I'm very disappointed in Emma, I know she wouldn't replace the goalie in a Stanley Cup final because he had one bad game.
So you want him to stay in even though he's losing in *every* swing state? You're going to vote for him, but do you believe he can win? Or does that matter to you?
It would be fantastic if he could clearly articulate any of that in a way that convinces people that he's not acting like an elderly person in decline.
'His uniquely extreme age' is overshadowing what should be okay messaging and events,i.e. if Biden wasn't so old and frail,he and the democrats would be challenging without prejudice. .A very intelligent,serial understanding.
I highly recommend studying the 13 keys to the White House. They have correctly predicted every election since 1860. It’s based on the theory that the candidates do not matter elections are primarily a vote in favor or against the party holding the White House. There is only 1 key about the traits of the candidates that being incumbent party candidate is charismatic, inspirational or a war hero Biden is clearly none of those do we lose that. The only key about the challenge party is the challenging party candidate uncharismatic. To quote Allen Lichtman who help create the system and is the only person who predicted both the 2016 and 2020 election correctly. “Trump is a great showmen but his showmenship only appeals to a fraction of the electorate he doesn’t have the overwhelming charisma of FDR or Ronald Reagan.” Biden has so far only lost 2 keys those being midterm mandate key and incumbent charisma key. there are 4 keys that haven’t been called yet 2 lean in bidens favor and two don’t those 2 that don’t being the foreign policy/foreign military success and failure key. If we replace Biden we lose the incumbent party candidate is a sitting president key and the inner party struggle key. Since if we replaced Biden there would be terrible inner party struggle so we would lose 4 keys with both the foreign policy keys leaning against Biden. Unless there a permanent cease fire which would be a miracle but highly unlikely. so if Biden doesn’t run we would lose 6 keys which is the number you need to lose the election. I don’t like Biden at all but I trust the 13 keys theory. It is always correct. The only other option that would not result in democrats losing is the less preferable Plan B. if Biden decides not to run he doesn’t just withdraw from running he resigns making for the “good of the country” making Kamala Harris president. That would save both the inner party struggle key and the incumbency key. We can’t go with Newsom or Whitmer as much as I wish we could it would be political suicide. Based on the keys to win we either go with option A which is the safer one stick with Biden or option B Biden resigns making Kamala president. Those are the only two viable choices this late.
You are correct as to the Lichtman analysis which upholds a Harris victory if Biden resigns and Harris runs as the incumbent. I believe Lichtman has said as much. It is pretty clear that Harris has a lot less baggage than Biden: She is not ancient; she is not implicated in the Biden crime family BS and she is not deep into the Gaza debate, either way.
I think at this point WE ALL KNOW the taking points to hope for another Democratic candidate to run MR … you don’t need continuing beating the dead old horse 😓
My question is who are these polesters calling?, I have had a few text me but anybody that's gonna be voting for the right side of history doesn't have a house phone and polesters do not usually call cellular phones or they're not supposed to.
Split Ticket, Data For Progress polled 2,000 online fr jul1 to 3. They show Biden winning head to head or down 1 w 3rd party included. PBS/Marist poll of 1,500 shows Biden leading Trump by 2% or 1% w 3rd parties. He's now winning more good polls.
I think it would be inconvenient for Bernie to say otherwise, even though Bernie isn't senile and can probably live long enough to see Jimmy Carter die.
The only thing I've heard Biden articulate since the beginning of the year is "We got a bunch of chips from South Korea." Does that swing even one vote? Who the fuck is that for?
I'm an anti-Biden die-hard in that I won't vote for Dems if Biden is the candidate. (For the record I would never under any circumstances vote for any Republican, but Dems have to suffer for what they did to my man Sanders)
Are you in any way interested in what Bernie asks you to do? Or are you some kind of celebrity stan who does not actually care what Bernie wants and says he wants?
Then enjoy Project 2025 and the authoritarian hellscape you'll be allowing to happen. You'd rather Trump win than suck it up and vote for democracy even if you dont like the guy cos he fucked over Bernie?? If you are that moronic then there is no hope for you.
@@airwindows If I were a celebrity stan I would vote as Sanders recommends without taking into account that in his dotage he has become an establishment liberal with multiple positions I cannot support. In spite of his multiple incorrect positions in the present day, I appreciate his role in the creation of the US left, DSA, etc. This does not obligate me to endorse his embrace of the very same reactionary elements that killed off both of his presidential runs via institutional power plays and electoral chicanery. So I guess read 'Dems have to pay for what they did to my man Sanders' as 'as a working-class person, I need to see a lot more proof that Democrats represent me after they demonstrated at least twice (with 2024 pending) that they would rather risk losing with a complete turd ($hitlery, Biden) than allowing the people to actually vote for a candidate who professed real working class politics.
If Emma’s opinion is still the same by the end of next week (barring some giant f up by biden’s campaign) then it’s clear she’s completely myopic on this issue
@@ElderStatesman my point is that if the tide turns (and it seems like it is) to show that Biden is the best candidate rn and she still doesn’t change her mind, then she’s being myopic
This crap is so scary. We have a dictatorship on the ballot! And people are acting like it's normal! And we have a guy on his way to turning 81 as our only alternative. This sucks.
Lmfao
The senate is the most key to keep. If the senate goes back to republicans, they will have a Supreme Court majority until 2050
Project 2025 seeks to bypass the Senate.
The Senate is a guaranteed loss if Trump wins because all the Republicans have to do is win West Virginia to make it a 50/50 with a VP tie breaker.
Very optimistic think there will be 2050.
Worse, honestly, because if senate goes red this year, 2026 are mainly safe seats, and it will be 2028 before the DNC has a good chance to retake. Would be Trump trifecta, for basicly the whole cycle.
If the Dems lose the presidency they are losing the Senate. No way John Tester and Sharrod Brown survive an environment where Republicans win the popular vote
Boomers never say die until they do.
We keep saying it in a pleading tone but they won't listen.
@@joeavreg2254 My dad is a racist bigot born in 46 that doesn't believe in science scientists the moon landing or computers, and even he hates trump.
Joe Biden is not a boomer. The oldest boomer is 78.
Polls also show people want Trump to not run!
Has anyone been asked to participate in polls. I have never been asked in my life.
I participated in a poll in 2016. Several hundred million people live in this country. Maybe you'll get asked next time.
I was called in a poll phone call in Washington state but as the question went … it started to show it was more of a political propaganda then a poll for Republican candidates in Washington. I asked the caller if that was a poll paid by the Republican Party and she said she couldn’t confirm, but she did give the company name that was doing the poll. Unfortunately I didn’t write down
Has anyone been asked to participate in the price is right? I have never been asked in my life. I mean more people have been on the price is right then a poll sampling so. You have a higher chance of shaking Biden or Trumps hand than being polled.
I get called most election years. I answer the questions about half the time the other half of the time I'm busy with stuff.
I've participated in a bunch of phone polls.
I'm voting anti-fascist, anti Project 2025.
I find both presidential candidates repulsive, but Biden/Harris are going to be the lesser evil.
I'm also expecting Harris to take over.
I do not expect Dem leadership to be in touch enough to make that call
there is no vote you can make that ends in anti those things in america. america is the fascist training camp for the world.
I am voting blue no matter who, I don't care if it's Joe or not.
If Biden is at the top of the ticket, Trump wins.
Ettingermentum is a must follow/subscribe, he does the work!!
The bestest
And yet when I went to check the information box, they linked everything BUT him.
I heard him on Chapo a year or so ago and have been subscribed to him since. Cool to see a face to go along with his words and voice.
@@rrubens3026
But is he the goodest? 🤔
So explain the thinking of someone who would vote for another Dem, but not Joe/Kamala.
Really glad to see Ettingermentum getting more speaking slots, I have always really liked his CTH appearances! Great ability to boil down information for the masses.
The crucial poll question is not whether people think he should stand aside, it is 'will they vote for him if he does stand '. The first question is about what people think other people will do. The second is what they themselves will do.
In swing states, Biden is down between 3 and 8 points (except for Colorado +6.5, Minnesota +3 and New Hampshire +3).
Amazing track record for this guy.
As good as Allan Lichtman?
One for one, super impressive
One election. Big whoop.
@@theRagingBoltit’s about his specific predictions since that time, not just the election as a whole
@@ryangrundy4290If Lichtman's model is so foolproof, why hasn't he made a prediction yet?
Some of Biden's post-debate ad flood in my swing state featured Kamala.
She's more popular than him, so they are leaning on her since they can't lean on him. Joe's ego hasn't changed that he believes that he is the only person who should be allowed to be President, though.
Meanwhile republicans are saving their stockpiled funds, letting donkeys greatly outspend them… and republicans are winning in swing state polls
I’ve noticed this in my state as well. They rolled out those ads quickly.
@@cassandratq9301 repeated ads for rocky road primarily featuring nuts?
We need good polling on whether or not Kamala WOULD drive turn-out.
We already have polling that tells us that she does better than Joe, but it's simpler than that:
There are no "Biden or bust" people. Everyone who supports Biden in 2024 are Blue MAGA folks who will vote for any dem no matter what.
Dems are popular & Biden is not. Swap out Biden & we only stand to gain.
Well, I’m getting a lot of campaign messages asking me how much I like the idea of Kamala Harris as the president (and then asking me to donate, natch), so I think they’re probably getting pretty good polling on that.
I would rather vote for Kamala. I'm furious at Joe being an active accessory to gin ó side.
I'm voting antifascism/project 2025, though.
Project 2025 makes the choice super-clear.
@@dr.zoidberg8666
I think the retort to that is that the reason Biden needs to be switched out is to attract the NON "BIDEN OR BUST" cohort. Can Kamala help drive THAT group to the polls to vote Dem?
@@bicokun I donated and they didn't ask me. I'll vote for either, but I'd kill to not have him on the ballot at this point.
We are going to just slow walk into a Trump 2nd term. Biden’s team is going to just run out the clock no matter what the world says.
Then he’ll die in 2 to 3 years and leave his chit behind for us to clean up.
I think you are correct that Biden inner circle just wants to string things along until time runs out. He will lose lose to Trump but he will have the satisfaction of defeating all the democratic alternatives.
I think at this point, the Democrats see the writing on the wall and know our country is at a crossroads. Either we can upend the capitalist system by embracing socialism or we can quintuple down on a wealthy person's paradise (or our hellscape) by drifting into fascism. Democrats are so beholden to donors, they're willing to risk our country devolving into the Fourth Reich than to force a rich person into giving up an extra dime per dollar in taxes.
Pundits were calculating every traditional predictor of election results but completely ignored a new but obvious predictive tool and that is "GOP Crazy". Fortunately, GOP crazy is at an all time high going into this election cycle.
GOP crazy is baked into the polls
Like this dude just sorta rambles on...and he's not like even 70 years old...wtf
Thank you for these thoughtful interviews on a weekend.
Good points! 1."Convention nomination is a committment to democracy" + 2. "people won't be mad at you for giving them what they want". Trump 's campaign to keep Biden tells you everything you need to know.
Good point.
Trump will lose. If Biden runs it will be a landslide, if others run the races will be closer. Trump def. doesn't want Biden to run, that's a fake story. He's on tape talking about how easy Kamala would be to win against. He wants Joe out, it's the only way he even has a chance to win.
Trump doesn't understand how elections work lol Keeping Biden is the problem for Trump, replacing him leaves the candidacy completely unknown and without any ground game or track record.
He’s wrong about the source of Biden’s poor polling tho
Inflation is a bigger deal than his perceived mental deterioration
Incumbents lose following high inflation
Is 'Going full Clooney' now part of the vernacular?
"Do this before bed and watch your tool grow in size." Lol. Solid ad.
Let's see how accurate this guy is in 30 years of polling history.
Oh I thought you were saying his name was Ed Germentan or something like that 😂
I'll vote for Bernie if he replaces Joe.
Unfortunately? Bernie is older. I'd vote for him in a heartbeat, he's sharp as a tack. But he had a heart attack in the 2020 primaries.
Me too. The only way I’d vote doe a dem is if it’s Bernie. Otherwise I’m voting for trump
@@plutoloco2378 I can't tell if you're serious or trolling
@@SunVKing Almost certainly a troll. Or just a dumbass
They would never do that . Why people are even willing to vote democrat at this point is crazy to me . I mean after 2016 the party should have been thrown away and a new left party out it’s ashes
While replacing Biden at the Convention would be responsive to what people want, I worry this would set the precedent that could be used for the party to switch out any leftist candidate at the last minute. I remember when Bernie had the most delegates, he was the only candidate who argued the candidate with the most delegates should win. I think it would be best if Biden could somehow be persuaded to step aside.
Love you guys! Keep up the good work. Gay love from Norway here
❤for gay Norwegians.
@@grmpEqweer Thansk! We gotta fight for our love
Trump should be steamrolled by a Democratic candidate. One of the unspoken aspects of the debate is not whether it was a one-off that should somehow be ignored. Any Democratic candidate debating Trump should demolish Trump for his string of misconduct. How can anyone debating Trump not crush him? Instead Biden lost badly.Does Biden own a mirror? Does he watch any of the videos of his appearances? Biden should resign now and allow Harris to run as the incumbent and allow the nomination of an interesting VP candidate. Harris would have a big jump in approval once she becomes President. The "Biden crime family" BS would be gone. The "sleepy Joe" issue would be gone. The most Trump would have are his continual lies about the last three years and incoherent rambling about Harris' personal life thirty years ago. Is Harris my first choice? No. But the scenario with her running as an incumbent with a new name for VP gives Democrats the best chance of success, by far.
Kamala has no hope. Why you ask? Former cop that changed rules to keep people in prison.
“Polls only count when I agree with them” - Blue/Regular Maga
This was BEFORE Biden press conference and campaign appearances. Now polling like Marist n Split Ticket have Biden gaining, up 2%- head to head or up 1% w 3rd parties included.
The idea that there is a thought process involved gives them too much credit. This is 100% about how they feel about the current situation. The majority of these freaks prefer Biden losing to Trump when they could have something truly terrible, like a person who isn't at least 70.
And the same poll shows Biden in a tie with Trump. Hello!
If Biden and Trump finish tied nationally in the popular vote then Trump is going to win the electoral college with ~330 electoral votes
Wow. That's not how I expected Ettingermentum to look like that. Weird how you picture people differently in your head.
We're really not in a good place on this channel if we're literally just interviewing assholes off of twitter
I am not black, but I hear black people in comments being very supportive of Harris. They also think people who cannot respectfully say her name properly and insist on calling her by her first name only and not even saying it correctly sound like racists. Clean it up fellas I am a progressive and I get tired of defending progressives talking this way in comments it gives us a bad rep please try to be more respectful
I hear black people being really pissed that they voted for a candidate in a primary and then Democratic elites decide the candidate needs to go. Rich white men like Clooney and corporate donors are trying to force the guy they endorsed out. But hey, it's all good--young white leftists want Kamala to step up and replace him. She black, so that should be fine for black people right? Maybe it's just me but that comes across as condescending and racist af.
The narrative about pronouncing Kamala Harris’s name incorrectly did not materialize out of thin air. It was prompted by Tucker Carlson on his show when he was still on FOX. He was told that he was mispronouncing her name yet continued to mispronounce her name intentionally as a sign of disrespect toward her. Right-wing media and viewers followed suit. They need to clean up their act.
I *am* black. Black people care about defeating Trump. Nothing else is anywhere near as important. "Representation" and identity politics is superficial, especially when you have a black face furthering the wealth inequality policies of the donor class.
I think black people don't care as much as you think they do.
We call Bernie and Hillary by their first names too. We pick the most distinct part of a politician's name when referring to them, which in the VP's case is "Kamala". He should have the pronunciation down by now though.
"They also think people who cannot respectfully say her name properly and insist on calling her by her first name only and not even saying it correctly sound like racists."
GTFO with this nonsense. We always refer to politicians by single names, e.g. Clinton, Obama, Biden, Hillary, Bernie, Warren, etc. The only reason so many of them get referred to by their last name is because Bill, Joe and George are common names. She promoted herself as Kamala, her supporters in 2020 were literally referred to as the K-HIVE, AKA Kamala Hive.
So what i take from this is that Biden ain't no Bernie.
"A doddering old man who can't run the country" sums up the perception of Biden quite well in my opinion.
Kinda. I think he's more competent offstage.
But I'm terrifically upset with his actions in
pal es ti ne.
I'm voting against project 2025, regardless of who is at the top of the ticket.
Except he's ran the country for four years.
@@grmpEqweer Lol Palestine. There's NOTHING that would change the situation there.
He’s been running the country though. Therefore, that perception is detached from reality.
Nope. His problems are mostly due to inflation.
Anyone have thoughts on those very rare cases where the incumbent was re-elected following high inflation?
The reason Biden hasn't provided a political reason to stick with him is that there really isn't a slam dunk one.
IMO, Project 2025 is that slam-dunk reason. That's regardless of who is at the top of the ticket.
My suggestion? Harris/Biden. Let him step back.
@@grmpEqweer Biden would never stand for that.
@@SuzakuX Neither would his base, primarily black women and union workers.
VP Biden would be hilarious
i dunno, his union credentials after his presidency were very strong, both working behind the scenes to get the railroad workers their time off, or him being the first psitting president to address the striking uaw workers. he passed the inflation reduction act despite joe manchin's attempts to destroy literally everything good in it. maybe those transfer as just dnc, but they happened under his watch so they are associated with him.
Said you’d link to the guests news letter. I don’t see the link??
9:14 That business about those who watched the Nixon-Kennedy debate on TV having a more favorable impression of Kennedy, while those who who listened to the debate on radio favored Nixon, being attributable to Kennedy's better visual impression than Nixon's--might not be the only explanation for the two outcomes.
When that debate was held, many Americans still didn't own a TV. Many Americans, worked night shifts or had a day job and a night job or couldn't yet afford a TV. Others were living in rural areas out of range of TV broadcasts.
The point being, that those who watched on TV might have been in an economic, educational, and professional class, different from that of the radio listeners.
So that the different results between the TV viewers and radio listeners, might have had as much to do with the socioeconomic class of each audience than with the Kennedy's visuals being more persuasive than Nixon's.
No offense to your guy Emma. He predicted one or two trends. No predictive validity or scientific basis
Nate Silver is allowed to have a job cmonnn
He's not so much a predictor as he is a translator of the actual situation. If you aggregate all of the available information you can make an assessment on what the outlook currently is, but he almost never gives a prediction especially this far away from the election.
@@Pain-rk7huhe only barely predicted one.
@Beacon69ers his assessment was pretty much a widespread understanding of the situation. It wasn't a shock that Dobbs fucked the Republicans. Everybody saw that coming. The only people who didn't see it were dumb conservative pundits.
You're misunderstanding the argument - the point isn't that we should believe him because he accurately predicted 2022, the point is that we should believe him because he is making rational data-based arguments and the fact that he predicted 2022 further lends credibility as an example where polling contrasted with the pundits making subjective arguments and the polling was right. The point is that if you look at the data, Biden's prospects are in the toilet and circling, while it's largely pundits (pro-Biden ones this time) making weird hare-brained arguments that fly in contrast with the data.
It is the people arguing against Josh's conclusions that are avoiding "predictive validity and scientific basis" by making up all sorts of unfalsifiable rules--an incumbent has a better chance, even when literally 75+% of the electorate thinks he shouldn't run again! Biden can beat Trump, he did it before! (sample size: 1 elections), Kamala will lose because Trump just has some special quality that makes women lose when they run against him (sample size: 1 elections)--and so on.
11:20 Yes, but is "X" percent of people preferring Biden step aside the same as "X" percent of people refusing to vote for Biden?
Thank you! They are too simplistic with their analysis.
If Biden doesn't step aside, we are going to get tedius terrible Trump. And if that happens God help us all!
I am voting blue no matter who it is, Joe or not.
@@markg.7865 I know, their is no choice, I wish we could have some one that would win.
@@markg.7865 Yeah, but can you really blame anyone who thinks maybe the next president should be at least somewhat lucid?
Oh wow, this was just 3 weeks ago... How times change. and for the better somehow!
There’s simply not a sample size large enough to give any credence to someone predicting elections. Variance is a real thing and there are an infinite amount of variables as well as changing conditions that can make a model that worked 4 years ago to be completely useless in this election cycle.
He's got to stop saying "like" every other word. Otherwise good insight.
dude knows of what he speaks
💯
yeah, but it's american politics. It's like being highly educated in failed fiction.
This guest may have some valid and interesting points but his overuse of the word “like” is very distracting.
If Harris had Bernie as her VP, she would be guaranteed a win. If she ends up the nominee, Dems will pick Mayor Pete as VP. I've said that since Biden picked her, that is what would happen.
That is a terrible idea.
Polling was pretty accurate in 2016. Mist the results were within the margin or error as I recall. But people act like being 1 or 2 points ahead means you are winning when really its a tie and also national polls are less relevant than polls tied to electoral votes.
I got the impression that it looked like such a foregone conclusion on the popular vote polling that people didn't really get anywhere near as granular with the polling in the swing states as they should have. I recall handful of people DID point out that there was a path for Trump from the slim margins in the swing states, though, even if they got very little attention.
@@JPH1138 I am basing my comment on a link that showed all the polls going back at least a year. I used to go to it weekly. I don't remember what the link is. And then separately pundits would say something like "Hillary is beating Trump in 9 of 10 polls! She is a shoe in!" But that gave a very false impression if those 9 of 10 polls were within the margin of error."
I get it. I didn't want Trump to win either and hoped the polls were missing something. When Hillary lost it took me about 5 minutes to understand what was happening.
Emma’s intelligence shining through here. Meanwhile over at TYT Audrey Meadows is showcasing her mauve lipstick. 😊
No dirty laundry up in here
The notion any Democrat will beat Trump except Biden is not convincing. The people calling loudly for Biden to be replaced overestimate the strength of the other potential candidates and underestimate Biden’s. Name a Democrat, and there are always some Democrats who don’t like them. Even the guest admits Harris is not so popular or strong. I am not saying Biden is strong, but the guest underestimates the ability of the Democrats to select a new candidate all the Democrats and independents will get behind.
He has a great vice president donald trump also
Exactly
what if Michelle Obama ran?......im just dreaming
@@joca2903Well, polling has Michelle Obama winning by double digit points, as I recall. Too bad she doesn’t want anything to do with that crap.
Look. Project 2025 makes it super clear. I am voting against
fas cis m.
Trump is denying he is for it, but he's waist deep in project 2025.
We have to nail 2025 to his door, because it's
fas ci ism.
So what’s the chances?
Slim to none
I finally get see Josh's face!
So why won’t he step aside?
Nate Silver was way off in 2016. Polls aren't the be all end all.
@@user-be4ou5lq9z So we're going off polling for popular vote bull crap that's meaningless, instead of the electoral college that means everything. Lol got it...
@@soyborne.bornmadeandundone1342 the electoral college still uses the popular vote. Silver wasn't "way off". The election came down to a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states. Additionally Silver gave Trump about a 28% probability of winning the election. I wish more people understood probability and just math in general because these polling discussions with people who don't is frustrating to say the least.
Absolutely not true. 538 had Clinton winning the popular vote by 2 points, which she did, but only gave her a 4 in 5 chance of winning the election
Clinton was ahead 4 points on election night and had a 71% chance to win. At this point in his re-election bid Obama was four points behind Romney. The red wave drastically underperformed. The election for George Santos' empty seat was a dead heat in polling, but dems won by something like 8 points.
The point here is not to assume that Joe Biden is guaranteed to win. It's to show the insanity of cowardly blue voters wanting to force out their own incumbent when he is shown with a slight advantage in the current polls AFTER the trainwreck debate and when the media and leftist influencers are shitting on him 24/7.
I think this guy is one of the best guests you've ever had on your show. Wow.
Are you sure
hey Etti
good shit guys
abortion is on the ballot in FL too!
Re: debate - Everybody figured, "Biden asked for it - obviously he's loaded for bear!"
As much as the debate and the bombardment of Gaza had me not wanting to vote for Biden and wishing he would drop out... over the course of this public debate amongst Democrats, the media and the voters... I have come around to support him...surprising myself the most! I have come to have a better understanding about his overall economic big-picture philosophy, support for unions and the working class, and he has come out and presented a policy platform for the future that is energizing and a great contrast to Project 2025 and the Trump Goon Gang. So maybe this process will energize other people to support him too. I am also confident in VP Kamala Harris, as his back up!
I have reached the opposite conclusion.
There is not nearly enough recognition on how successful Biden's economic and social policies have been.
Inflation has decreased for the first time since 2020. There has been unprecedented economic growth in the left behind rural counties. The US GDP has outpaced every country in the G7. They have even outperformed China for the first time in 20 years. Unemployment is lower than pre covid rates, the monthly job creation numbers have been exceptional.The stock market is up. New infrastructure projects are underway all over the country.
Insulin prices have been capped and student loans forgiven. He stood up to OPEC and released US oil reserves to lower gasoline prices. He was instrumental in the expansion of NATO.
Why is this all being ignored because he had one disastrous debate. Take a look at his campaigning afterwards.
Emma's outrage over the tragedy in Gaza is denying the fact that there is NO path for another candidate. Even Bernie Sanders is backing Joe, because he realizes it's the only way to get progressive policy enacted. Why has the IRS been clamping down on delinquent back taxes from billionaires. Why has the FTC been investigating corporations for anti trust violations. Why has the government been pushing to tax the 1% more? Doesn't that sound like Bernie's influence?
A primary replacement of Biden would be disastrous, the candidate would lose. But Netanyahu would still be Prime Minister of Israel and Trump would hand him Gaza on a platter.
I'm very disappointed in Emma, I know she wouldn't replace the goalie in a Stanley Cup final because he had one bad game.
@@maxbash6330 Biden is already handing them Gaza. Watch his actions. Not his words. His words are meaningless.
So you want him to stay in even though he's losing in *every* swing state? You're going to vote for him, but do you believe he can win? Or does that matter to you?
It would be fantastic if he could clearly articulate any of that in a way that convinces people that he's not acting like an elderly person in decline.
MEIDAS TOUCH has been insanely accurate in all the elections.
@Acceptance-eh6vvI suspect they're quite aware
What is a paid cjannel ... im fr unaware@Acceptance-eh6vv
'His uniquely extreme age' is overshadowing what should be okay messaging and events,i.e. if Biden wasn't so old and frail,he and the democrats would be challenging without prejudice. .A very intelligent,serial understanding.
Get this guy on the Pakman show 😂
He's using a shure sm58 that's wild
Is there a poll that got it right 10 out of 10 presidential elections like Allan Lichtman did?
Thank you! He developed a robust model that people are ignoring. Biden has the most key advantages.
Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
And Trump's campaign is not even up on Kamala yet.
Kamala has no track record, no ground game, no money. Switching to Kamala is a ploy to hand the election to Trump, period.
Josh face reveal
This guy is very impressive
Love this guys work
functionally, how has his work improved your life to inspire love?
i don't know what i was expecting, and i mean this in a very neutral way: he looks like a josh
Always appreciate these specialist interviews
Hispanic voter in Wisconsin standing firmly with Joe Biden 2024!!
This might be the least real person on the internet
Time to choice were you stand , time to fight for the people ,Lets Go Joe!!!
I highly recommend studying the 13 keys to the White House. They have correctly predicted every election since 1860. It’s based on the theory that the candidates do not matter elections are primarily a vote in favor or against the party holding the White House. There is only 1 key about the traits of the candidates that being incumbent party candidate is charismatic, inspirational or a war hero Biden is clearly none of those do we lose that. The only key about the challenge party is the challenging party candidate uncharismatic. To quote Allen Lichtman who help create the system and is the only person who predicted both the 2016 and 2020 election correctly. “Trump is a great showmen but his showmenship only appeals to a fraction of the electorate he doesn’t have the overwhelming charisma of FDR or Ronald Reagan.” Biden has so far only lost 2 keys those being midterm mandate key and incumbent charisma key. there are 4 keys that haven’t been called yet 2 lean in bidens favor and two don’t those 2 that don’t being the foreign policy/foreign military success and failure key. If we replace Biden we lose the incumbent party candidate is a sitting president key and the inner party struggle key. Since if we replaced Biden there would be terrible inner party struggle so we would lose 4 keys with both the foreign policy keys leaning against Biden. Unless there a permanent cease fire which would be a miracle but highly unlikely. so if Biden doesn’t run we would lose 6 keys which is the number you need to lose the election. I don’t like Biden at all but I trust the 13 keys theory. It is always correct. The only other option that would not result in democrats losing is the less preferable Plan B. if Biden decides not to run he doesn’t just withdraw from running he resigns making for the “good of the country” making Kamala Harris president. That would save both the inner party struggle key and the incumbency key. We can’t go with Newsom or Whitmer as much as I wish we could it would be political suicide. Based on the keys to win we either go with option A which is the safer one stick with Biden or option B Biden resigns making Kamala president. Those are the only two viable choices this late.
You are correct as to the Lichtman analysis which upholds a Harris victory if Biden resigns and Harris runs as the incumbent. I believe Lichtman has said as much. It is pretty clear that Harris has a lot less baggage than Biden: She is not ancient; she is not implicated in the Biden crime family BS and she is not deep into the Gaza debate, either way.
@@mhartan true as long as Biden fonts resign though not just drop out of the race
@@Andrew-of8uq Which would be worse. Nope, not that option.
@@airwindows which option are you saying is worse?
The 13 Keys theory predicted Al Gore.
That was wrong.
Great thoughtful discussion. Dig it.
They ignored the main issue. It’s the economy,
Left is best.
I think Dick Van Dyke should run!
Asks to explain us what you mean by fundamentals, proceeds to explain on his behalf. 🤦♀️
I think at this point WE ALL KNOW the taking points to hope for another Democratic candidate to run MR … you don’t need continuing beating the dead old horse 😓
My question is who are these polesters calling?, I have had a few text me but anybody that's gonna be voting for the right side of history doesn't have a house phone and polesters do not usually call cellular phones or they're not supposed to.
Split Ticket, Data For Progress polled 2,000 online fr jul1 to 3. They show Biden winning head to head or down 1 w 3rd party included. PBS/Marist poll of 1,500 shows Biden leading Trump by 2% or 1% w 3rd parties. He's now winning more good polls.
shit ive never seen his face before lol awesome
Omg he's real! He lives lol! Looks a little different than I expected. ❤ this guy
He doesn’t understand the economy.
Assuming that he is aware of how important the economy is, he must not understand how weak the economy is.
Interview Allan litchman
he is unreliable.
He's a fraud
Fantastic guest.
It’s crazy that this was just yesterday and today Trump has won and it’s over
You should invite the man who predicted 9 of 10 presidental races right.
Not one who predicted one or two trends. That's ridiculous.
If you're talking about the "keys to the White House" guy, no thanks. He's a total hack.
Lichtman hasn't made an official prediction yet.
I would vote for Kamala, but NOT Biden.
Can I post a comment about the presidential race in my country, Israel?
Emma's Warren side is back and is all for mamala.
Where's the link to this genius's work?
Bernie said all in. I am all in.
I think it would be inconvenient for Bernie to say otherwise, even though Bernie isn't senile and can probably live long enough to see Jimmy Carter die.
It's really not hard to predict the elections, it's a 50/50 shot
100% either outcome is shit for the world.
The only thing I've heard Biden articulate since the beginning of the year is "We got a bunch of chips from South Korea." Does that swing even one vote? Who the fuck is that for?
Bring on Allan Litchtman.
Bots out in force
@@TheHauntedKiwi Ain't a bot, sir/madem.
I like Biden because he is a warmonger. I really like warmongers
true american here folks. war lust at it's finest.
I'm an anti-Biden die-hard in that I won't vote for Dems if Biden is the candidate. (For the record I would never under any circumstances vote for any Republican, but Dems have to suffer for what they did to my man Sanders)
Are you in any way interested in what Bernie asks you to do? Or are you some kind of celebrity stan who does not actually care what Bernie wants and says he wants?
Then enjoy Project 2025 and the authoritarian hellscape you'll be allowing to happen. You'd rather Trump win than suck it up and vote for democracy even if you dont like the guy cos he fucked over Bernie?? If you are that moronic then there is no hope for you.
Dems will not suffer anything. They will take their money and run. We the voters are the ones who will suffer lol
@@airwindows If I were a celebrity stan I would vote as Sanders recommends without taking into account that in his dotage he has become an establishment liberal with multiple positions I cannot support.
In spite of his multiple incorrect positions in the present day, I appreciate his role in the creation of the US left, DSA, etc. This does not obligate me to endorse his embrace of the very same reactionary elements that killed off both of his presidential runs via institutional power plays and electoral chicanery.
So I guess read 'Dems have to pay for what they did to my man Sanders' as 'as a working-class person, I need to see a lot more proof that Democrats represent me after they demonstrated at least twice (with 2024 pending) that they would rather risk losing with a complete turd ($hitlery, Biden) than allowing the people to actually vote for a candidate who professed real working class politics.
Another day in Joe Biden's bashing day
He does it to himself mostly
Analyze it now
If Emma’s opinion is still the same by the end of next week (barring some giant f up by biden’s campaign) then it’s clear she’s completely myopic on this issue
People who think Biden's chances will improve are the myopic ones.
What do you mean? I think Emma has been on the side of telling Biden to step down for a little while. What makes you think she's myopic on this? 😕
Or, the TYT influence reaches farther than I would've believed. I expect shenanigans from Jimmy Dore, but I thought better of Emma Vigeland.
@@airwindows YUP
@@ElderStatesman my point is that if the tide turns (and it seems like it is) to show that Biden is the best candidate rn and she still doesn’t change her mind, then she’s being myopic
Can I post a comment, Israel?
It isnt about Palestinians its just about my opinion about the presidential race in my country.
twitter is becoming real life huh
Trump is going to run it like Elon runs Twitter.
No… no, it really isn't. It IS becoming a dumpster fire.
Can't wait for this ghoul to meet his maker.
there are so many ghouls
Trump AND Biden. Agreed.
... Project 2025 makes my choice really clear, though.