Just sold our house in San Diego (92128) in June 2021. Had a McMansion and asked $1.5M. Got 16 offers the first weekend, and took the one that offered $250K over. I was happily stunned. I really believe that we've hit the top. Hunkering down now in one of our small rentals in 92064. Two years here and we will avoid capital gains on the sale. I am loving your channel! I've never seen such good supporting data backing up your views. Please keep up the good work!
you are so smart to bail now. you can always return AFTER the crash. iN 1991 we bought a small house in Vallejo CA when they closed doen the Naval base. it cost us $85,000. We sold it in 2004 for $450,000. came back in 2012 and it was for sale again for $125,000. It is all in the timing.
This video was great, but def do additional research when considering places to go to. I am from El Paso and the new growth in the city is somewhat artificial. New homes are selling for 300k+ but there is very little industry here to support those prices. Housing has always been very cheap in El Paso because that is what the city can support. Wages are so low, so you will have a hard time with increase high rents. Vacancy rates are usually high. People here have no issue moving in with family in economic downturns so you will see increase vacancies during those times. There is a reason 2008 didn't really affect El Paso and that is because there was no real housing bubble here due to there being no real industry. If you want to move here as a your home base and raise a family, it is a great place to be. But do research. (Also, property taxes in El Paso are in the top 3 so beware). I like El Paso for sure, but I don't think it is a crash proof city with these home prices of 2021.
There was a reply from someone that got deleted saying that this was a negative comment to Reventure Consulting's video. My comment was just highlighting one of the top 5 cities he mentioned. El Paso rarely gets mentioned and I thought I would add my 2 cents. I enjoy Reventure Consulting's videos a lot and think he presents great data. But I'm sure even he would tell you to always do additional research/confirming of any info you see on RUclips or elsewhere.
It all depends on what you're looking for. 15 years ago, I would have jumped on these markets that are distant to me. Now, 5 years away from retiring, the last thing I want is to own rentals out of state. I'm waiting for the crash in more desirable areas and then will invest in a place that I'd like to retire. Also, I prefer appreciation to cash flow. In order to make $$ with cash flow, it often requires numerous properties which is fine if you want to work hard managing properties. I'd prefer to wait til the market corrects, buy in Western or Mountain areas and wait for appreciation to cycle back. There are various strategies depending on what you are looking for. As always - great content and excellently presented!
Thanks for the comment, Andrew! I think your strategy makes total sense. Owning a portfolio of cash-flowing properties can be burdensome, especially from out of the state.
Living in Arizona is one thing right now but no one talks about the lack of water to come to Arizona or Nevada and California. Houses may be expensive but you haven’t seen anything yet until the price of water.
I agree that it’s just more environmentalist extremist propaganda. Ground water has always been pumped out just fine, even in the hottest and driest of climates. SMH
Hello from Boise! My belief is that our market is in an enormous bubble. Prices are ridiculous in comparison to wages. I will not be surprised to see prices drop 50%! I’m already seeing a large volume of price reductions. I’m a 30 year career real estate investor and will not buy at the current prices. My advice: Be very careful if you’re a buyer.
Yeah.. so much of the TX rah rah crowd seems to never mention this. No state income tax, but much higher property taxes. No free lunch folks, gotta come from somewhere. Besides TX mostly sucks: hot, humid, no 🌊. And that’s not even getting into the American Taliban running amok; esp in government.
@@doctoresq3835 wonderful drive-by comment with nothing to support the claim. Love it. 20 minute video critiqued with a two-second blurb in the comment section LOL
Just bought my first house in Oklahoma City. I love my house and it cost 146,000 built in 2003. Its a small 3 bed 2 bath 2 car garage move-in ready house. House prices are increase a lot in Oklahoma City, but I truly believe that home prices will continue to grow here.
Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance-wealth, a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time..
I understand the fact that tomorrow isn't promised to anyone, but investing today is a hard thing to do because i have no idea of how and where to invest in?
People like me are scared of investing in commodities because of the rate of unprofessionals today,but this is awesome, just made a few research about him, he is good ,wow
I can 1000% vouch for this data with real life experience. I live near 4 of the 140-150th on the list of cash flow from rental yield and have analyzed a TON of rental properties only to see I would be out of pocket $1,000 a month to get a rental property there. All rental properties in my area have negative cash flow and I was just complaining about this to an investor friend of mine and said you know if your not tying up your personal capital maybe you can weather it until appreciation and inflation balance it out but it's just not worth the effort for me. In fact its exactly why I'm looking at 3 of the cities you mention in Texas to invest in. I have never seen a video more accurate than this!
He has left out appreciation. Name the areas you're talking about so we can view them. Take San Jose, CA. & Columbus, GA. Massive neg CF in San Jose vs Columbus. Yet neg cash is a write off with depreciation!!! However in the last yr in San Jose it's value / sqft went from $702 to $793/sq/ft. On a 2200 sqft home that is an increase of $200,200!!! Columbus, GA. over the last yr. $85 - $97 / sq/ft. Or $12 x 2200 sqft = $26,400 in apprecfiation!!! So if you can afford a San Jose property vs GA ... which is the more profitable property long term??? Even short term!!! No crash coming!!!
I bought my house in 2018 and sold in 2020, bought land in dolan springs, AZ and built a house. No mortgage payment, heaven on earth. But I do want to buy a house in North Vegas again as a second home but I want to do a 10 year mortgage not 30. 30 means you can't afford it to my financial ferth (mind). I will definitely give you a call in a year or two once I see these overbearing prices come back to hwat the true value of the typically house in Vegas is.
$680,000 buys a home in the hood with terrible public schools in the Seattle area. I toured a two story home going for $1.7 million in an area close to another area with high crime yesterday. There was nothing special about the house except for being in a good school district. The area still has housing for lower income people who bought before the area started going up in value. We talked to someone else touring the home and he agreed the whole place needed to be renovated.
Man, this is soooo sad! I always think about a young family (mid to late 20's with 1 young child). No way in hell can they afford an entry level home in many areas of the US. I live in one of the most affordable areas of SoCal, and a decent house STILL runs about $400,000. It's not gonna be pretty when this bubble pops out here.
@@andrewreisinger6860 the silver lining is that more people are going to have to be more entrepreneurial in order to build a life here. The ones who cannot make it will be forced to leave if they want a house with a fence in a decent area. The ones left will be those who were able to build a successful business. For that reason, we will see more successful startups. For anyone who just wants to work a 9-6 job, I will call it now: game over. Trying to do that would require both spouses to work multiple jobs and do side gigs, and they would be left with very little time to spend with their kids if they have any. It’s just not worth it when people can live a much better life by moving somewhere with better opportunities. The middle class threshold will be $500k/year before long and those who make it will also be facing higher taxes. Parents may be able to gift their kids a down payment or sell them their house for a discount to try to keep them near. Most of the others cannot save enough for a down payment when houses go up in value by $200k+ per year. Regarding building new houses, the state and counties are only making things harder. Even land with weeds may be considered a native ease protection growth.
@@andrewreisinger6860 yeah, the more they tax and regulate, the more businesses will leave. Apparently, the state’s residents will cheer it on in the process, but I’m not here to judge.
which tools are you using for these maps and graphs? it seems like there's a handful of API pulls... did you build it yourself or is it for public use?
Oklahoma City really is a underrated city. I’m military and when I found out I was getting stationed here I cried and sulked for a week. Thought it would just be cows and grass as far as the eye could see. As a woman born and raised in NYC and has branched out to SC for a stint I can tell you it’s not as bad as I assumed. Lots of different eateries, it’s a hot concert city, it’s a major college town, NBA city as well. The city definitely sleeps unlike NY but there are activities to get into and the real estate market is golden. I don’t think jobs are an issue seeing how they have Boeing here as well as a small Amazon hub, the airport, a handful of hospitals and of course civilian opportunities on our military bases here. If you’re lacking in aviation or other specialized skills/education there’s plenty restaurants and other lower skill opportunities as well. A lot of my fellow sailors say they like it here. If you’re not into bugs you’ll absolutely hate it here. That is actually the only reason I despise this place.
@@305dadecounty305 I remember very distinctly the streets still bustling with people “after hours” vs a Saturday morning in downtown OKC VERY quiet very spars lol. Also I’m in my mid 30’s, when I was younger we’d be at the spots til 4 am. I guess times have changed or where I was hanging they understood what the people wanted.
Cash flow does not equal profit. 75% of your cash faux will be eaten up by CapEx while your "high cash flow" property barely goes up in value. You make no money. Savvy and experienced real estate investors know that PROFIT = capital appreciation. And no it's not speculation, you can check what markets have appreciated in the last 60-70 years 6-9% annually. Cash flow does not equal profit.
What you are saying is what stalled me when I first got into real estate. That I am JUST now out of. Cash flow 100%= profit along with expandability!!!. Your 75% cash flow going to CapEx, How even on the low $650-950 rentals? The only way I could see that happening is the "Savvy an experienced investor" Really is NOT too savvy? You should have a game plan on what is going to need worked on over the ENTIRE lifetime you plan on having that home rental or not! Like you should have an ideal what needs done over the next 10yrs for sure along with the costs that come with.. Sad thing is when you buy more expensive houses not only do you barely brake even, But when something does need fixed it is WAY WAY more then in the "high cash flow" home. Like you are talking about having all this money invested into property and you think a 6-9% annual property appreciation with lil to no CASH FLOW! Is better then a 1-2% property value monthly payments no matter if the property appreciates at only a 3% clip?? If you do you should go into stocks bc your money would be safer! If you give me 200k I will ALWAYS buy MORE then one home now... Rather then one home in a "better" (at this time) area....With more then one, Not only will I have WAY more cash flow making it so I can reinvest/pay off the loan if need be, I NEVER take out of my own pocket for repairs or any of that! Plus if I buy half a block I also have a better chance to get better property appreciation also.
@@dizzlethe7346 I'm a multi-millionaire real estate investor and financially free with 12 years of experience. The only people who will tell you that cash flow is profit are the turnkey salesmen who already made money buying low, flipping, and selling high to you. Then they left you with a problem that barely appreciates with inflation. Out of my five rentals and 25 passive private placement syndication investments, my two very worst are the turnkey CASH FAUX rentals. Cash flow is for poor investors or investors who are poor. Suit yourself my friend.
@@dizzlethe7346 the bigger pockets gurus and salesmen are trying to sell to you a $150 per month cash flow while investors in San Francisco and Hawaii are making $5K appreciation per month. It cost about the same to replace a roof on a $80,000 turnkey property as it does on a $800,000 property with 50 years of historic appreciation. One "cash flows" $3,000 a year, 70% of which will go to CapEx while the other appreciates 40 to $60,000 a year. I know which one I want.
Take 170k either go to AL,FL,NC,SC or OH Either buy a portfolio of 5 duplexes put 30k into them get 1500/1800 EACH ONE. 200k nets you 7500-9000 or a good 3800 after taxes, upkeep an a repair escrow account. With a payoff of less then 5yrs and a building an UNTAXED escrow (not free spending money) account. I know you can do this bc I have been over the past two years, Divesting my "desirable" homes and buying PURE rentals! Plus if you are like me and buy the majority your homes in one places. Then you have other areas to make and or save money like lawn care an trash are major ones. IDK I went from having three (Bought around 180-200K in 08-11) 250k rentals two in Austin! That I did not make anything a month I actually put about 4K into them a year. After all said and done I came out with about 210K up and above what I have in from a 640K "investment" it was mostly loaned money so, But on a 10ish year holding tho. Now I have about the same personally money invested, With more debt/loan payments that are $1000 more. But I don't work anymore unless it is lawn day or garbage day. I have a 800K investment with a average net of $48,000 a month over the past 8 month (when I got the last 10 duplexes) with a total of 25 duplexes 5 triplex an 3 two Br singles one I now live in an 8 places open. I have $4000 in loans property taxes an insurance, take out $4800 escrow for repairs/upkeep, pay the LLC a fixed 6K (me) ,12K in taxes 2K "property" manager with around $20,000 or what will be $240,000 annually from a $800,000 investment. The best part about this is in less then three years if I just focus mostly on paying the loans off I can along the way still get at least another portfolio or 4/5 duplexes paid cash. But I won't cry when the bubble pops bc its PAID OFF and I won't cry, When my CASH FLOWING 800K- Million dollar investments is only "worth" 400K just like the NONE cash flow properties, Why because I have profit! Something I would never have if I kept my "capital appreciation" properties... None of this even brings into account the LLC has one of the houses, A car and a truck in it along with ALL the tax write offs that come with that! Something you can't have just with a couple high priced homes and you will never cover the loss of an income property to live in that way like I can with the LLC'S...
@@wanderingdoc5075 You will not have the same pay for a roof on a 80K to a 800K turnkey either... I have no ideal what area you would have the roof size the same on houses with that much of a difference? Like we should be talking the differences in 5/6square of roof shingles alone or 10K of work in SIZE ALONE! From a 80k 1000sqft To a 800K 2500sqft (AT LEAST) alone. Like What is that? Plus who puts tin of asphalt on a 800,000 house? Who would want a house that price with a cheap roof? As far as the appreciation, What happened to the houses in San Fran during 2004-08 did they not take the hardest hits? Meaning the biggest gamble. Hawaii I don't see it.. They have always been high AF an do you know the cost to fix anything??
I'm looking to buy a live-in home. And I want to live where I want to live, which means I patiently wait till the real estate mkt. deflates because I've been around for a lot of years and I can tell you, there's no such thing as a bubble that doesn't burst. Sooner or later, the air will leave the bubble like a punctured balloon. I sort of regret selling our home when my husband passed but I'm ready to jump back in. I didn't HAVE to pay rent for the last however-many-months, but I did. I was rewarded by my landlady raising the rent. Luckily I didn't blow the money from the sale of our home, but invested it. I just don't want to pay way more than necessary.
I hear ya! I, too, paid my rent in full and on time for the past 18 months. I just received notice that my rent will increase to the tune of 5.5% (~ $50/month) beginning January 1, 2022. And the management here has done nothing--absolutely nothing--to improve the place. In fact, they decided to replace our door-to-door mail service with a single cluster of mailboxes that are more than half a mile away from some of the residents' homes AND decided to shut down one of two pools on the property to upgrade it over this past summer (couldn't wait till Fall??!). I'll be out of here next year, for sure!
@@shawnat5176 -- Greed times ten. The greedy landlords are going to bite the bullet soon, when the bottom falls out of the economy. We'll get the last laugh, Shawna!
Another stat I was reading is not just growth but how many people move out of a hot market. The Phoenix area has grown 2.2 million over the past 10 years but has lost 1.7 in that same time period. Between the heat and crime people can't take it and move out.
Thanks for the comment, Frank! That's such a grew point RE move outs. And that's one of the risk factors in high migration markets. If prices get a bit too expensive, or there's any type of economic slow down, there could be major issues.
Could you do a separate video on your graph of job growth rates and median house prices, where you really drill down at look at those markets straddling the green and yellow lines, specifically in the Western United States (if any exist)? I would imagine those are going to be the next hottest markets. I only ask, because I am looking to relocate to Yuma, Las Cruces or El Paso for work, in the next year and I am wondering if they're in that sweet spot, where if I go, I am not going to have to worry about a crash... I rented in Yuma for 8 years, (2009-2017), because the market crashed hard right before I got there and it took forever (basically like until I left in 2017), to show any hint of recovery. It seems to be a lot more stable there now, however, like here in the Tri-Cities in Washington State... I would say home costs of $350,000 is much more reasonable for the West (versus the $200,000 you used nationally).
Prices already fell by $20,000 - $40,000 in my zip code, in just the past 6 months. Looks like a decent-looking $200,000 home may actually be within reach again soon. I live in West Atlanta suburbs by the way.
@@AB-fq4mr Thanks ! I also looked at Douglasville and Dallas but prices over the roof due to hedge funds, Invitation homes or other giant buyers u mentioned. Did u come across any new construction in this area with reasonable valuation.
Fayetteville, NC is a military town with all activity duty receiving housing allowance so you have a good pool of renters in the area. Plus Fort Bragg is the largest military installation in the US. We lived there for 3 years. Our house was 2300 sq ft and our rent was $1700 a month but the house was valued at $240k. And it was in one of the nicest, gated communities in the area.
All those wanting to buy a house, but can’t afford high prices, all laid out and given to you, go get it. These type of places, with good job growth, don’t stay cheap forever.
I like and appreciate this overall as a starting point, but "desirability" needs a few more constraints, i.e. "live" in Memphis is #4 most violent US city 2021 (in fairness, Nashville is a top 20 but downtown always feels pretty safe). El Paso seems (forgive me, Texans) the middle of nowhere and only military or contractors with little to do. Though Huntsville AL is also around a base, is very close to many cities and includes civilian markets like NASA; additionally, currently Space Force HQ will go there and bring a huge population boom, but that's probably too much detail for a general video like this. Thanks and keep it up!
As a native Texan I wouldn’t invest $1 in El Paso or McAllen FYI- not before our borders were open, and certainly not now, and thanks so much for the heads up on Memphis 😘. Personally in Texas, I’d rather invest in corpus bc worse case id have a vacay property to rent/use
Another great video! Tons of data and analysis. While your analysis is absolutely logical if someone finds a good deal and depending on the investment strategy, target home/renter, I wouldn’t exclude the places with negative job growth as housing assistance programs pick up the tab.
Thanks for great info! We got rental property in St. Johns county FL in April even if we live in different state. We are happy with the outcome. Rented out on the spot, have best schools in FL, great neighborhood. I will never buy rental where we live- NYC.
The problem with all of these cities is that they are dangerous. Memphis is the #2 most dangerous city in the US. Winston-Salem, Oklahoma City, and Augusta are all in the bottom 10%. El Paso’s crime index is 30 (scale of 0-100, with 100 being safest), so hardly a ringing endorsement.
Thanks for the comment, Margaret! Right now that map isn't available. But I am working on a web app that will give users access to the data for a monthly fee. Stay tuned for future updates and make sure you're signed up for the Reventure mailing list!
I'm in the military and currently live in El Paso, have rental properties here and in San Diego. The horrible thing about El Paso is the property tax, which is 3.15%. This year it's about 3%, but I think this was a temporary break due to covid and elevated home prices. To make it worse they estimate a new appraised value every year, so your property tax usually increases yearly. On a $100k home here, property tax would be about $263/month, and the home would probably rent for about $1k/month. Consider mortgage and maintenance, not much left over. My rental here is a STT, but i think i will sell it when i get stationed somewhere else.
@@lilshaz8378 yes, homestead exemption and senior exemptions help a lot. 100% disabled military also don't have to pay property tax. Unfortunately, those stuck with the full bill pay quite a hefty price.
This guy hates Boise Idaho. I can't say that I blame him because I live in Boise ID and concur that it is the biggest housing bubble in the country. It is downright scary how big the bubble is.
I see you acquire your raw data from Zillow/BLS, and construct your own graphs and by-county maps. What software are you using? Excel? And the mapping program?
I remember a previous video you did about how rent prices in some areas were driving the price increase. That really changed the way I looked at house investing. Now you have another video based upon rental return. Thanks for the insight.
Thanks for the comment! I put together this data in Tableau. Right now the data isn't accessible, however I am working on a web app that will allow monthly subscribers to view all of the data. Stay tuned for future updates and make sure you are subscribed to Reventure's mailing list!
Thanks for commenting and supporting the channel as a member, Athena! Alabama is a higher cash flow market. One thing to watch out for is crime/job losses, though. Investors can get a high yield in the state, but it might come along with collections difficulties.
As a senior, I'd like a report on areas where there is affordability but I don't need schools or job opportunities. Some place other than Texas of Florida. Low income taxes would be nice because I'll be withdrawing from a 401K so I will have taxable income. Any ideas?
I'm not sure what job opportunities you're seeing in Fort Smith. The rental yields are good as a % because home prices are low (compared to other places). And home prices are low because the median income is abhorrently low. So you make a good % return, but the positive cashflow isn't much. It works here simply because the overall cost of living is low, so I don't need much cumulative cashflow to make a living.
I love the breakdown and how you backed it up with 100% data! Your videos has helped me tremendously to make sound decisions on my next investment moves that is not based on "popular markets to invest in from real estate guru's" but rather, look at the data. Guru's lie, numbers don't!
Big takeaways are that buying in already hyper-expensive markets in the west is dumb, for a number of reasons. But, I would not expect any bubble to really burst in San Diego, Los Angeles, San José, San Francisco, Portland, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Denver, Boise or Seattle, mainly because they have high job growth accompanying their high housing prices and they have scarcity of homes. I would like to drill down on the cities on the green and yellow line and see how many of those still exist in the western United States.
@@ReventureConsulting This is true and I was in Las Vegas at the end of July, and was looking at Zillow just for shits and giggles.... Half of the homes I saw on the market were pre-forclosure or even actual foreclosure status. Las Vegas does not have as much to fall back on as other Western cities, which are technology driven for jobs.
My wife and I moved from Fort Wayne, IN to Mesa, AZ in Jan for work and church. Fort Wayne has been named one of the most affordable major cities in the US and after living there for 3 years I can confirm. I think the thing that puts it in an interesting position is its geo central location to major cities (2-3 Hours from Indianapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Columbus), its very family friendly, and a growing city for blue collar jobs especially in steel. Truly one of the few rust belt cities that is still thriving
*Video request* - cities that experienced a turnaround in crime (high to low), what driving forces led to it, etc. I probably wouldn't want to live directly in any of those cities or the runner ups, but I would consider investing in some of them.
What he doesn't mention, and maybe doesn't understand is the relationship between income, job markets, and housing value. The reason a house is cheap in many of those areas is because the jobs in those areas are largely low wage. For example, all of the largest employers, Amazon, Walmart, big box retailers, restaurants, and small businesses, are all poverty wage employers. Most of the people in these jobs will never own a home. Even if they maintain a good credit score against all odds, they can't save money for a down payment. That's why the loss of 5 million service jobs had no effect on housing prices but did result in an eviction crises. Just because there is job growth doesn't mean there will be an increase in potential buyers or an increase in qualified renters. A large number of newly rehired workers all across America are going to have a myriad of issues on their credits scores, including late rent payments and evictions. If the job growth is in low wage jobs, which is the vast majority, then so what?
Thanks for the comment, David! I totally agree - wages have a huge impact on home prices. Even adjusting for wages, home prices in places like OKC are still extremely cheap.
That's a great question! I would encourage you to check out last week's "America's Biggest Bubble" video. We dive into the characteristics of markets that crashed in 2007-08.
Who even are you??? The amount of value packed into this is ridiculous. :) We are spoiled to have you pumping out the videos that you are! Thank you so much! Definitely going to start up on your subscription plan!
Thanks for the question! The map is made using Tableau Graphing Software (not online). However, I am working on creating a web application that will allows users to access these maps for a monthly subscription. If you are interested stay tuned and also make sure you're signed up for the Reventure mailing list!
Completely disagree with the statements on Oklahoma. Just because the homes are 200k doesn't mean the fundamentals support that. The wages are down and unemployment is high. Exodus etc. They are 50 to 300% up in price from 2016. Ppl that buy in Oklahoma will be buying at the top. Those 200k houses will be 80k in 1 year. That's where they have been dropped too the last time this happened. Texas and Californians are looked at like suckers in Oklahoma. Instant negative equity. Houses have been under 100k since the beginning of time. As low as 25k to 45k three years ago. Now they are 130k to 260k lol. 400% price hike is not a good deal anywhere.
I agree. Household income went from 53K in 2009 to 60K in 2019. Home prices up 30% in 5 years. Wage growth well below u.s. average. Wwwaay out of proportion.
@@Tjp361 yea. Ppl are blinded by "cheap" ..bc it's cheap to them. They need to look at the market and more importantly price history. When a house was bought at 25k and is on the market 2 years later for 120k.. something is wrong. It's crazy. And it's all gonna burn down. 🔥
Thanks for the comment, Jon! You bring up a great point about the relevance of wages. Interestingly OKC is one of the most affordable markets in America when comparing average annual earnings to prices.
@@ReventureConsulting The entire state is affordable give or take. But not for long if 500% equity gains keeps going. So I agree to a point... but I hope what may keep prices in check is prevalence of Tornadoes. Insurance companies and Mortgage companies speak the same language. If the houses in OK do what they are doing in Colorado and there is a bad Tornado season it will be a very expensive summer for the big guys and I don't think they want that. Investors and house flippers are invading in mass and pricing first time buyers out of the market. Relocating professionals with remote jobs may be a small percentage but I've seen bidding wars on 75k houses get the price to 115k. That behavior has made many of the suburb price hikes ridiculous. Houses that we 25k four years ago get painted and near carpet and are going for 80k to 110k. Affordable for many but still very very frustrating to see the departure from reality-based market movement. The housing market resembles buying art more than buying traditional products or assets right now and I hope it stops soon or the new bottom will still be unattainable for most.
@@jonbravo9278 Well, if there's anything to learn from my market (Dallas), terrible weather won't stop anything. Prices in the region are about 50% higher than the bottom of the great recession (prior to 2020). Prices are up 16% here YOY 2020-2021. This is despite the fact there are plenty of hail storms, tornadoes, flash floods, etc. Homeowners insurance is HIGH, so is property tax. I'm not sure about OKC but developers here have been pumping so much supply, it's going to soften up at some point.
An example of affordable and increasing desirability is the west side of Palmdale, CA. There is good job growth now. I bought here in 2018 for 255,000. Low crime, increasing number of jobs. If you go up north about 20- 40 miles a bit to California City and Lake LA, sure you can buy a house for 150,000 dollars but there are few municipal services and high crime and they aren't near jobs. However, interestingly enough, there are some great schools in these areas. Go figure. I think you should have upped the typical price to 250,000.
There is an article on Yahoo home page this morning titled “40 Cities That Could be Poised For a Housing Crisis”, among the 40 cities there are Winston-Salem, NC, Augusta, GA. But according to your data the housing market of the two cities is pretty healthy. Would you please explain?
Thanks for the comment, Clara! A housing crash typically occurs when two more of these things occurs - huge appreciation, lots of home building, and economic contraction. The markets covered in this video have had more moderate levels of appreciation, lower home building, and stable economies.
Just sold our house in San Diego (92128) in June 2021. Had a McMansion and asked $1.5M. Got 16 offers the first weekend, and took the one that offered $250K over. I was happily stunned. I really believe that we've hit the top. Hunkering down now in one of our small rentals in 92064. Two years here and we will avoid capital gains on the sale. I am loving your channel! I've never seen such good supporting data backing up your views. Please keep up the good work!
Congrats on your sale, Mike!
Hello House, How are you doing,
you are so smart to bail now. you can always return AFTER the crash. iN 1991 we bought a small house in Vallejo CA when they closed doen the Naval base. it cost us $85,000. We sold it in 2004 for $450,000. came back in 2012 and it was for sale again for $125,000. It is all in the timing.
@@kennethflood2849 Hello Kenneth, How are you doing?
may i ask what you paid for that $1.5M home?
This video was great, but def do additional research when considering places to go to. I am from El Paso and the new growth in the city is somewhat artificial. New homes are selling for 300k+ but there is very little industry here to support those prices. Housing has always been very cheap in El Paso because that is what the city can support. Wages are so low, so you will have a hard time with increase high rents. Vacancy rates are usually high. People here have no issue moving in with family in economic downturns so you will see increase vacancies during those times. There is a reason 2008 didn't really affect El Paso and that is because there was no real housing bubble here due to there being no real industry. If you want to move here as a your home base and raise a family, it is a great place to be. But do research. (Also, property taxes in El Paso are in the top 3 so beware). I like El Paso for sure, but I don't think it is a crash proof city with these home prices of 2021.
Ft Bliss pretty much keeps EP economy going. Lots of small business owners there but the market is captive
There was a reply from someone that got deleted saying that this was a negative comment to
Reventure Consulting's video. My comment was just highlighting one of the top 5 cities he mentioned. El Paso rarely gets mentioned and I thought I would add my 2 cents. I enjoy
Reventure Consulting's videos a lot and think he presents great data. But I'm sure even he would tell you to always do additional research/confirming of any info you see on RUclips or elsewhere.
@@jeh02571 you made some good points abt EP and yes, ppl need to put due diligence into where they are going bc sometimes it's not what they think
Open up factories again. There will be plenty pf workers
Bingo!
Dude, this is exactly what I've been looking for. You just earned another subscriber right here! Thank you
Thank you Anthony! Much appreciated!
It all depends on what you're looking for. 15 years ago, I would have jumped on these markets that are distant to me. Now, 5 years away from retiring, the last thing I want is to own rentals out of state. I'm waiting for the crash in more desirable areas and then will invest in a place that I'd like to retire. Also, I prefer appreciation to cash flow. In order to make $$ with cash flow, it often requires numerous properties which is fine if you want to work hard managing properties. I'd prefer to wait til the market corrects, buy in Western or Mountain areas and wait for appreciation to cycle back. There are various strategies depending on what you are looking for. As always - great content and excellently presented!
Thanks for the comment, Andrew! I think your strategy makes total sense. Owning a portfolio of cash-flowing properties can be burdensome, especially from out of the state.
Living in Arizona is one thing right now but no one talks about the lack of water to come to Arizona or Nevada and California. Houses may be expensive but you haven’t seen anything yet until the price of water.
🙄 such a tired statement. That’s been said for the past 40 plus years.
I agree that it’s just more environmentalist extremist propaganda. Ground water has always been pumped out just fine, even in the hottest and driest of climates. SMH
Only time will tell just ask a farmers in Southwest California. We’ll see. Enjoy
hi
Hello from Boise!
My belief is that our market is in an enormous bubble. Prices are ridiculous in comparison to wages. I will not be surprised to see prices drop 50%! I’m already seeing a large volume of price reductions.
I’m a 30 year career real estate investor and will not buy at the current prices. My advice: Be very careful if you’re a buyer.
Thank you for the comment, Dave! It's great to hear local insight like this. Thank you!
Sorry but Texas is out for a investment. The property taxes are outrageous.
Add the insane homeowners insurance
Yeah.. so much of the TX rah rah crowd seems to never mention this. No state income tax, but much higher property taxes. No free lunch folks, gotta come from somewhere. Besides TX mostly sucks: hot, humid, no 🌊. And that’s not even getting into the American Taliban running amok; esp in government.
Absolutely outrageous! ( I live in tx)
This is my favorite kind of housing content. Showing us where TO and where NOT TO put our money! Thank you
This guy has no clue wtf he is talking about
@@doctoresq3835 he does and he backs up his points with data. I don't always agree with him, but I respect his content.
@@doctoresq3835 wonderful drive-by comment with nothing to support the claim. Love it. 20 minute video critiqued with a two-second blurb in the comment section LOL
Just bought my first house in Oklahoma City. I love my house and it cost 146,000 built in 2003. Its a small 3 bed 2 bath 2 car garage move-in ready house. House prices are increase a lot in Oklahoma City, but I truly believe that home prices will continue to grow here.
If rented, how much will it's rent for?
@@srikanthb4080 around 1,400
@@ethanclark1083 thats real good. Could you share the neighborhood. Thank you.
Congrats on your purchase of first home. Can you please pass on your realtor contact please?
hi
I wish they made a love button, because I love your content. Your ability to visual the data is brilliant.
Thank you
Facts
Lol, don’t believe everything u hear! It’s all about the views my friends
@@miamiliving6625 perspective is everything but I appreciate he has some data behind his ideas.
Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance-wealth, a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time..
Interesting, most people don't understand the market moves and tend to be mislead in facts
I understand the fact that tomorrow isn't promised to anyone, but investing today is a hard thing to do because i have no idea of how and where to invest in?
People like me are scared of investing in commodities because of the rate of unprofessionals today,but this is awesome, just made a few research about him, he is good ,wow
I've heard of many brokers, but Dave is just all over with good recommendations
I'm so happy for taking the bold step in working and investing $2000 with Expert Dave Javens after a week I received $6468 to my bank
I can 1000% vouch for this data with real life experience. I live near 4 of the 140-150th on the list of cash flow from rental yield and have analyzed a TON of rental properties only to see I would be out of pocket $1,000 a month to get a rental property there. All rental properties in my area have negative cash flow and I was just complaining about this to an investor friend of mine and said you know if your not tying up your personal capital maybe you can weather it until appreciation and inflation balance it out but it's just not worth the effort for me. In fact its exactly why I'm looking at 3 of the cities you mention in Texas to invest in. I have never seen a video more accurate than this!
He has left out appreciation. Name the areas you're talking about so we can view them. Take San Jose, CA. & Columbus, GA. Massive neg CF in San Jose vs Columbus. Yet neg cash is a write off with depreciation!!! However in the last yr in San Jose it's value / sqft went from $702 to $793/sq/ft. On a 2200 sqft home that is an increase of $200,200!!! Columbus, GA. over the last yr. $85 - $97 / sq/ft. Or $12 x 2200 sqft = $26,400 in apprecfiation!!!
So if you can afford a San Jose property vs GA ... which is the more profitable property long term??? Even short term!!! No crash coming!!!
I bought my house in 2018 and sold in 2020, bought land in dolan springs, AZ and built a house. No mortgage payment, heaven on earth. But I do want to buy a house in North Vegas again as a second home but I want to do a 10 year mortgage not 30. 30 means you can't afford it to my financial ferth (mind). I will definitely give you a call in a year or two once I see these overbearing prices come back to hwat the true value of the typically house in Vegas is.
You are ☆WONDERFUL☆ for making this video and others!!
Love this video!! The best RE channel!
Thank you Latif! Much appreciated!
$680,000 buys a home in the hood with terrible public schools in the Seattle area. I toured a two story home going for $1.7 million in an area close to another area with high crime yesterday. There was nothing special about the house except for being in a good school district. The area still has housing for lower income people who bought before the area started going up in value. We talked to someone else touring the home and he agreed the whole place needed to be renovated.
Man, this is soooo sad! I always think about a young family (mid to late 20's with 1 young child). No way in hell can they afford an entry level home in many areas of the US. I live in one of the most affordable areas of SoCal, and a decent house STILL runs about $400,000. It's not gonna be pretty when this bubble pops out here.
@@andrewreisinger6860 the silver lining is that more people are going to have to be more entrepreneurial in order to build a life here. The ones who cannot make it will be forced to leave if they want a house with a fence in a decent area. The ones left will be those who were able to build a successful business. For that reason, we will see more successful startups.
For anyone who just wants to work a 9-6 job, I will call it now: game over. Trying to do that would require both spouses to work multiple jobs and do side gigs, and they would be left with very little time to spend with their kids if they have any. It’s just not worth it when people can live a much better life by moving somewhere with better opportunities.
The middle class threshold will be $500k/year before long and those who make it will also be facing higher taxes. Parents may be able to gift their kids a down payment or sell them their house for a discount to try to keep them near. Most of the others cannot save enough for a down payment when houses go up in value by $200k+ per year. Regarding building new houses, the state and counties are only making things harder. Even land with weeds may be considered a native ease protection growth.
@@nathanpeters9515 tough to be an entrepreneur or small business owner in California that seems to want to regulate you out of business.
@@andrewreisinger6860 yeah, the more they tax and regulate, the more businesses will leave. Apparently, the state’s residents will cheer it on in the process, but I’m not here to judge.
should've stopped at "Seattle"
which tools are you using for these maps and graphs? it seems like there's a handful of API pulls... did you build it yourself or is it for public use?
Oklahoma City really is a underrated city. I’m military and when I found out I was getting stationed here I cried and sulked for a week. Thought it would just be cows and grass as far as the eye could see. As a woman born and raised in NYC and has branched out to SC for a stint I can tell you it’s not as bad as I assumed. Lots of different eateries, it’s a hot concert city, it’s a major college town, NBA city as well. The city definitely sleeps unlike NY but there are activities to get into and the real estate market is golden. I don’t think jobs are an issue seeing how they have Boeing here as well as a small Amazon hub, the airport, a handful of hospitals and of course civilian opportunities on our military bases here. If you’re lacking in aviation or other specialized skills/education there’s plenty restaurants and other lower skill opportunities as well. A lot of my fellow sailors say they like it here. If you’re not into bugs you’ll absolutely hate it here. That is actually the only reason I despise this place.
Thanks for the comment, Kay! Appreciate the local insight. I definitely noticed the bugs during my visit - very loud at dusk!
The city that never sleeps? At 2am everything is closed even before the pandemic. NY sucks.
@@305dadecounty305 I remember very distinctly the streets still bustling with people “after hours” vs a Saturday morning in downtown OKC VERY quiet very spars lol. Also I’m in my mid 30’s, when I was younger we’d be at the spots til 4 am. I guess times have changed or where I was hanging they understood what the people wanted.
Cash flow does not equal profit. 75% of your cash faux will be eaten up by CapEx while your "high cash flow" property barely goes up in value. You make no money.
Savvy and experienced real estate investors know that PROFIT = capital appreciation. And no it's not speculation, you can check what markets have appreciated in the last 60-70 years 6-9% annually.
Cash flow does not equal profit.
What you are saying is what stalled me when I first got into real estate. That I am JUST now out of.
Cash flow 100%= profit along with expandability!!!. Your 75% cash flow going to CapEx, How even on the low $650-950 rentals? The only way I could see that happening is the "Savvy an experienced investor" Really is NOT too savvy? You should have a game plan on what is going to need worked on over the ENTIRE lifetime you plan on having that home rental or not! Like you should have an ideal what needs done over the next 10yrs for sure along with the costs that come with.. Sad thing is when you buy more expensive houses not only do you barely brake even, But when something does need fixed it is WAY WAY more then in the "high cash flow" home. Like you are talking about having all this money invested into property and you think a 6-9% annual property appreciation with lil to no CASH FLOW! Is better then a 1-2% property value monthly payments no matter if the property appreciates at only a 3% clip?? If you do you should go into stocks bc your money would be safer!
If you give me 200k I will ALWAYS buy MORE then one home now... Rather then one home in a "better" (at this time) area....With more then one, Not only will I have WAY more cash flow making it so I can reinvest/pay off the loan if need be, I NEVER take out of my own pocket for repairs or any of that! Plus if I buy half a block I also have a better chance to get better property appreciation also.
@@dizzlethe7346 I'm a multi-millionaire real estate investor and financially free with 12 years of experience. The only people who will tell you that cash flow is profit are the turnkey salesmen who already made money buying low, flipping, and selling high to you. Then they left you with a problem that barely appreciates with inflation. Out of my five rentals and 25 passive private placement syndication investments, my two very worst are the turnkey CASH FAUX rentals.
Cash flow is for poor investors or investors who are poor. Suit yourself my friend.
@@dizzlethe7346 the bigger pockets gurus and salesmen are trying to sell to you a $150 per month cash flow while investors in San Francisco and Hawaii are making $5K appreciation per month.
It cost about the same to replace a roof on a $80,000 turnkey property as it does on a $800,000 property with 50 years of historic appreciation.
One "cash flows" $3,000 a year, 70% of which will go to CapEx while the other appreciates 40 to $60,000 a year. I know which one I want.
Take 170k either go to AL,FL,NC,SC or OH Either buy a portfolio of 5 duplexes put 30k into them get 1500/1800 EACH ONE. 200k nets you 7500-9000 or a good 3800 after taxes, upkeep an a repair escrow account. With a payoff of less then 5yrs and a building an UNTAXED escrow (not free spending money) account. I know you can do this bc I have been over the past two years, Divesting my "desirable" homes and buying PURE rentals! Plus if you are like me and buy the majority your homes in one places. Then you have other areas to make and or save money like lawn care an trash are major ones.
IDK I went from having three (Bought around 180-200K in 08-11) 250k rentals two in Austin! That I did not make anything a month I actually put about 4K into them a year. After all said and done I came out with about 210K up and above what I have in from a 640K "investment" it was mostly loaned money so, But on a 10ish year holding tho. Now I have about the same personally money invested, With more debt/loan payments that are $1000 more. But I don't work anymore unless it is lawn day or garbage day. I have a 800K investment with a average net of $48,000 a month over the past 8 month (when I got the last 10 duplexes) with a total of 25 duplexes 5 triplex an 3 two Br singles one I now live in an 8 places open. I have $4000 in loans property taxes an insurance, take out $4800 escrow for repairs/upkeep, pay the LLC a fixed 6K (me) ,12K in taxes 2K "property" manager with around $20,000 or what will be $240,000 annually from a $800,000 investment. The best part about this is in less then three years if I just focus mostly on paying the loans off I can along the way still get at least another portfolio or 4/5 duplexes paid cash. But I won't cry when the bubble pops bc its PAID OFF and I won't cry, When my CASH FLOWING 800K- Million dollar investments is only "worth" 400K just like the NONE cash flow properties, Why because I have profit! Something I would never have if I kept my "capital appreciation" properties...
None of this even brings into account the LLC has one of the houses, A car and a truck in it along with ALL the tax write offs that come with that! Something you can't have just with a couple high priced homes and you will never cover the loss of an income property to live in that way like I can with the LLC'S...
@@wanderingdoc5075 You will not have the same pay for a roof on a 80K to a 800K turnkey either... I have no ideal what area you would have the roof size the same on houses with that much of a difference? Like we should be talking the differences in 5/6square of roof shingles alone or 10K of work in SIZE ALONE! From a 80k 1000sqft To a 800K 2500sqft (AT LEAST) alone. Like What is that? Plus who puts tin of asphalt on a 800,000 house? Who would want a house that price with a cheap roof?
As far as the appreciation, What happened to the houses in San Fran during 2004-08 did they not take the hardest hits? Meaning the biggest gamble. Hawaii I don't see it.. They have always been high AF an do you know the cost to fix anything??
Where do you get your graphs?
YOU! Are a good dude, dude! Keep it up, you’re doing great!!
Hi Jarrod, how are u?
I'm looking to buy a live-in home. And I want to live where I want to live, which means I patiently wait till the real estate mkt. deflates because I've been around for a lot of years and I can tell you, there's no such thing as a bubble that doesn't burst. Sooner or later, the air will leave the bubble like a punctured balloon. I sort of regret selling our home when my husband passed but I'm ready to jump back in. I didn't HAVE to pay rent for the last however-many-months, but I did. I was rewarded by my landlady raising the rent. Luckily I didn't blow the money from the sale of our home, but invested it. I just don't want to pay way more than necessary.
I hear ya! I, too, paid my rent in full and on time for the past 18 months. I just received notice that my rent will increase to the tune of 5.5% (~ $50/month) beginning January 1, 2022. And the management here has done nothing--absolutely nothing--to improve the place. In fact, they decided to replace our door-to-door mail service with a single cluster of mailboxes that are more than half a mile away from some of the residents' homes AND decided to shut down one of two pools on the property to upgrade it over this past summer (couldn't wait till Fall??!). I'll be out of here next year, for sure!
@@MicheleEngel -- My rent went up $120 a mo. Really, I can't wait to find a new life somewhere, anywhere but here. Thanks for the reply.
Hi how u doing?
Same happened to me. Never missed rent in 5 yrs and got an $800 increase. Pure Greed!
@@shawnat5176 -- Greed times ten. The greedy landlords are going to bite the bullet soon, when the bottom falls out of the economy. We'll get the last laugh, Shawna!
6:42 this mans color coding scheme is ON POINT! yellow for warning, red for avoid, blue for sad/not looking forward to, green for in the money!
I love how you keep making assertions wihout any RESULTS
Thanks for the comment, Michael! Can you clarify what you mean by "results"?
@@ReventureConsulting I want to see the housing market CRASH!
These are data based predictions. Predictions are, by nature, speculations of the FUTURE. So it can’t happen yet. Are you okay dude???
hi
Excellent presentation of data, as always. 👍🏻
Thank you for commenting and watching!
One of the best videos I’ve seen in a long while. Nice work!!
Hey.. whats up?
Another stat I was reading is not just growth but how many people move out of a hot market. The Phoenix area has grown 2.2 million over the past 10 years but has lost 1.7 in that same time period. Between the heat and crime people can't take it and move out.
Thanks for the comment, Frank! That's such a grew point RE move outs. And that's one of the risk factors in high migration markets. If prices get a bit too expensive, or there's any type of economic slow down, there could be major issues.
Could you do a separate video on your graph of job growth rates and median house prices, where you really drill down at look at those markets straddling the green and yellow lines, specifically in the Western United States (if any exist)? I would imagine those are going to be the next hottest markets. I only ask, because I am looking to relocate to Yuma, Las Cruces or El Paso for work, in the next year and I am wondering if they're in that sweet spot, where if I go, I am not going to have to worry about a crash... I rented in Yuma for 8 years, (2009-2017), because the market crashed hard right before I got there and it took forever (basically like until I left in 2017), to show any hint of recovery. It seems to be a lot more stable there now, however, like here in the Tri-Cities in Washington State... I would say home costs of $350,000 is much more reasonable for the West (versus the $200,000 you used nationally).
Hey Handsome
Wow, the data is very powerful. Thank you!
Thank you for watching and commenting!
Thanks, very powerful data. Silly question but is this data public and how do I replicate the various filter options?
Question. There is a green area of Pennsylvania at 14:34. It is too small to identify. Could you please identify? Ty
Prices already fell by $20,000 - $40,000 in my zip code, in just the past 6 months. Looks like a decent-looking $200,000 home may actually be within reach again soon. I live in West Atlanta suburbs by the way.
Which city in West Atlanta you are referring here
@@AB-fq4mr Thanks ! I also looked at Douglasville and Dallas but prices over the roof due to hedge funds, Invitation homes or other giant buyers u mentioned. Did u come across any new construction in this area with reasonable valuation.
@Nezumi Speed nope
@Nezumi Speed east
@Nezumi Speed I suppose it could be, but that's not what I said. I was talking about suburbs, not Atlanta itself.
Anything in Oregon in the top left quad?
Fayetteville, NC is a military town with all activity duty receiving housing allowance so you have a good pool of renters in the area. Plus Fort Bragg is the largest military installation in the US. We lived there for 3 years. Our house was 2300 sq ft and our rent was $1700 a month but the house was valued at $240k. And it was in one of the nicest, gated communities in the area.
Thanks for the comment, Annie! That's a great point.
All those wanting to buy a house, but can’t afford high prices, all laid out and given to you, go get it.
These type of places, with good job growth, don’t stay cheap forever.
Whwre can see the charts you use?
I like and appreciate this overall as a starting point, but "desirability" needs a few more constraints, i.e. "live" in Memphis is #4 most violent US city 2021 (in fairness, Nashville is a top 20 but downtown always feels pretty safe).
El Paso seems (forgive me, Texans) the middle of nowhere and only military or contractors with little to do. Though Huntsville AL is also around a base, is very close to many cities and includes civilian markets like NASA; additionally, currently Space Force HQ will go there and bring a huge population boom, but that's probably too much detail for a general video like this.
Thanks and keep it up!
Great points here.
As a native Texan I wouldn’t invest $1 in El Paso or McAllen FYI- not before our borders were open, and certainly not now, and thanks so much for the heads up on Memphis 😘. Personally in Texas, I’d rather invest in corpus bc worse case id have a vacay property to rent/use
whats up?
I love your show.
Hello Sherry, How are u doing?
Awesome! It's better if including criminal rate.
Another great video! Tons of data and analysis. While your analysis is absolutely logical if someone finds a good deal and depending on the investment strategy, target home/renter, I wouldn’t exclude the places with negative job growth as housing assistance programs pick up the tab.
Thanks for the comment! I think that's a fair point.
Fantastic Info! Love love your video. Thank you!
Thanks for great info! We got rental property in St. Johns county FL in April even if we live in different state. We are happy with the outcome. Rented out on the spot, have best schools in FL, great neighborhood. I will never buy rental where we live- NYC.
Why is the twin cities always grey? You never do Saint Paul or Minneapolis
Cool graph where did u get it from
Enjoy the video! How about Orange County to invest? Thx
The problem with all of these cities is that they are dangerous. Memphis is the #2 most dangerous city in the US. Winston-Salem, Oklahoma City, and Augusta are all in the bottom 10%. El Paso’s crime index is 30 (scale of 0-100, with 100 being safest), so hardly a ringing endorsement.
Where do you see Minneapolis?
What are the 2 best places to invest in florida?
Where do I find the map you use at the beginning of the video where you see the mid price cost of homes?
Thanks for the comment, Margaret! Right now that map isn't available. But I am working on a web app that will give users access to the data for a monthly fee. Stay tuned for future updates and make sure you're signed up for the Reventure mailing list!
what websites do you go to to get this information?
I'm in the military and currently live in El Paso, have rental properties here and in San Diego. The horrible thing about El Paso is the property tax, which is 3.15%. This year it's about 3%, but I think this was a temporary break due to covid and elevated home prices. To make it worse they estimate a new appraised value every year, so your property tax usually increases yearly. On a $100k home here, property tax would be about $263/month, and the home would probably rent for about $1k/month. Consider mortgage and maintenance, not much left over. My rental here is a STT, but i think i will sell it when i get stationed somewhere else.
can not think of a reason to move to ei paso....there are so many things to consider beside housing cost
My mother's home in EP is valued 99k with a 2k property tax. Thankfully she is over 80 and exempt from it.
@@lilshaz8378 yes, homestead exemption and senior exemptions help a lot. 100% disabled military also don't have to pay property tax. Unfortunately, those stuck with the full bill pay quite a hefty price.
Very informative! Thank you!
Thank you for watching and commenting!
This guy hates Boise Idaho. I can't say that I blame him because I live in Boise ID and concur that it is the biggest housing bubble in the country. It is downright scary how big the bubble is.
Hey Mike. Can i be friends with you?
How about Lubbock or a Northern San Antonio suburb? Also looking Coeur’dAlene ID area. Love the videos and am sharing with friends. Thanks much.
Thanks 🙏
Appreciate the comment, Bud!
hi
Great content as always!
Thank you so much!
I see you acquire your raw data from Zillow/BLS, and construct your own graphs and by-county maps. What software are you using? Excel? And the mapping program?
Great question, Lori! I am using Tableau to show the data!
@re: hello, where can we view the interactive map within this video and any other maps that you show within your videos? Thank you
is bay area still good to buy houses?
Thanks for the question! I'm not a huge fan of the Bay Area. Home prices relative to wages are at a crazy ratio right now.
@@ReventureConsulting so is los angeles and other so cal areas is it good to wait after 2022?
Where can i find datas like this?
Very Interesting
post links of where you get your charts from please
I remember a previous video you did about how rent prices in some areas were driving the price increase. That really changed the way I looked at house investing. Now you have another video based upon rental return. Thanks for the insight.
Thanks for the comment, Bill! I'm glad you are finding this content useful.
Hi Bill, how are you doing?
Prices already coming back down to earth in DFW. My neighbor just dropped asking price significantly.
really? which zip code is it?
This is great information, how do you access your data sets?
Thanks for the comment! I put together this data in Tableau. Right now the data isn't accessible, however I am working on a web app that will allow monthly subscribers to view all of the data. Stay tuned for future updates and make sure you are subscribed to Reventure's mailing list!
Hi - I’m a member of yours! Thanks for the videos! Is alabama worth buying? Don’t see it’s in the top five but it has high cash flow?
Thanks for commenting and supporting the channel as a member, Athena! Alabama is a higher cash flow market. One thing to watch out for is crime/job losses, though. Investors can get a high yield in the state, but it might come along with collections difficulties.
@@ReventureConsulting thank you! What sources do you use for tracking job losses/growth?
hi
Excellent content!!!
Thank you!
What about South Dakota? Their economy didn’t shut down during the pandemic. Your work is the best, so useful & analytical with the data you provide.
hi
As a senior, I'd like a report on areas where there is affordability but I don't need schools or job opportunities. Some place other than Texas of Florida. Low income taxes would be nice because I'll be withdrawing from a 401K so I will have taxable income. Any ideas?
NOTICE: these houses with the most rental yield are military towns
Lots of VA loans?
✊🏿
Great video. Thank you!
I'm not sure what job opportunities you're seeing in Fort Smith. The rental yields are good as a % because home prices are low (compared to other places). And home prices are low because the median income is abhorrently low. So you make a good % return, but the positive cashflow isn't much. It works here simply because the overall cost of living is low, so I don't need much cumulative cashflow to make a living.
hello
I love the breakdown and how you backed it up with 100% data! Your videos has helped me tremendously to make sound decisions on my next investment moves that is not based on "popular markets to invest in from real estate guru's" but rather, look at the data. Guru's lie, numbers don't!
Thank you! Appreciate the kind words!
Big takeaways are that buying in already hyper-expensive markets in the west is dumb, for a number of reasons. But, I would not expect any bubble to really burst in San Diego, Los Angeles, San José, San Francisco, Portland, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Denver, Boise or Seattle, mainly because they have high job growth accompanying their high housing prices and they have scarcity of homes. I would like to drill down on the cities on the green and yellow line and see how many of those still exist in the western United States.
Thanks for the comment, Diego! Something to note is that many local housing crashes in US history were preceded by an economic boom.
@@ReventureConsulting This is true and I was in Las Vegas at the end of July, and was looking at Zillow just for shits and giggles.... Half of the homes I saw on the market were pre-forclosure or even actual foreclosure status. Las Vegas does not have as much to fall back on as other Western cities, which are technology driven for jobs.
My wife and I moved from Fort Wayne, IN to Mesa, AZ in Jan for work and church.
Fort Wayne has been named one of the most affordable major cities in the US and after living there for 3 years I can confirm. I think the thing that puts it in an interesting position is its geo central location to major cities (2-3 Hours from Indianapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Columbus), its very family friendly, and a growing city for blue collar jobs especially in steel. Truly one of the few rust belt cities that is still thriving
and that's why you moved from there
@@IS-jy3dx Mesa - the nicer parts of it - is skyrocketing in price. Sad that the average family cannot afford their first home here very often.
Appreciate you 👍🏾
I live just outside Phoenix. prices went up $40k in 18 months
Crazy stuff!
*Video request* - cities that experienced a turnaround in crime (high to low), what driving forces led to it, etc.
I probably wouldn't want to live directly in any of those cities or the runner ups, but I would consider investing in some of them.
Can you make latest video of similar kind? This is 6 month old. It’s amazing data you showing
What he doesn't mention, and maybe doesn't understand is the relationship between income, job markets, and housing value. The reason a house is cheap in many of those areas is because the jobs in those areas are largely low wage. For example, all of the largest employers, Amazon, Walmart, big box retailers, restaurants, and small businesses, are all poverty wage employers. Most of the people in these jobs will never own a home. Even if they maintain a good credit score against all odds, they can't save money for a down payment. That's why the loss of 5 million service jobs had no effect on housing prices but did result in an eviction crises.
Just because there is job growth doesn't mean there will be an increase in potential buyers or an increase in qualified renters. A large number of newly rehired workers all across America are going to have a myriad of issues on their credits scores, including late rent payments and evictions. If the job growth is in low wage jobs, which is the vast majority, then so what?
Thanks for the comment, David! I totally agree - wages have a huge impact on home prices. Even adjusting for wages, home prices in places like OKC are still extremely cheap.
hi
@@phaedralynn1808 hello
@@daviddaugherty1011 Bored, need a friend.
@@phaedralynn1808 I recommend joining local organizations or volunteering with an organization that does something that interests you.
Great information!
Thank you Nilda!
Good video. Easy to understand.
Thank you so much!
Can you send me the 4 quandrant chart so i can reference please? thanks and great video!
Great info. Facts > hype
How can I access these maps?
Great information, Thank you.
Thank you for commenting and watching!
Hello
Where does south bend Indiana land?
Very useful video! Thank you.
Thank you!
Can you use these filters to show which cities were the top in 2007/2008 before the crash and how they actually faired after the crash?
That's a great question! I would encourage you to check out last week's "America's Biggest Bubble" video. We dive into the characteristics of markets that crashed in 2007-08.
Who even are you??? The amount of value packed into this is ridiculous. :) We are spoiled to have you pumping out the videos that you are! Thank you so much! Definitely going to start up on your subscription plan!
Thank you so much for the kind words, Ty! Means a lot. Excited to have you as a potential member!
what site is being used for the map at 12:55?
Thanks for the question! The map is made using Tableau Graphing Software (not online). However, I am working on creating a web application that will allows users to access these maps for a monthly subscription. If you are interested stay tuned and also make sure you're signed up for the Reventure mailing list!
Keep the fire burning reventure.
Completely disagree with the statements on Oklahoma. Just because the homes are 200k doesn't mean the fundamentals support that. The wages are down and unemployment is high. Exodus etc. They are 50 to 300% up in price from 2016. Ppl that buy in Oklahoma will be buying at the top. Those 200k houses will be 80k in 1 year. That's where they have been dropped too the last time this happened. Texas and Californians are looked at like suckers in Oklahoma. Instant negative equity. Houses have been under 100k since the beginning of time. As low as 25k to 45k three years ago. Now they are 130k to 260k lol. 400% price hike is not a good deal anywhere.
I agree. Household income went from 53K in 2009 to 60K in 2019. Home prices up 30% in 5 years. Wage growth well below u.s. average. Wwwaay out of proportion.
@@Tjp361 yea. Ppl are blinded by "cheap" ..bc it's cheap to them. They need to look at the market and more importantly price history. When a house was bought at 25k and is on the market 2 years later for 120k.. something is wrong.
It's crazy. And it's all gonna burn down. 🔥
Thanks for the comment, Jon! You bring up a great point about the relevance of wages. Interestingly OKC is one of the most affordable markets in America when comparing average annual earnings to prices.
@@ReventureConsulting The entire state is affordable give or take. But not for long if 500% equity gains keeps going. So I agree to a point... but I hope what may keep prices in check is prevalence of Tornadoes. Insurance companies and Mortgage companies speak the same language. If the houses in OK do what they are doing in Colorado and there is a bad Tornado season it will be a very expensive summer for the big guys and I don't think they want that. Investors and house flippers are invading in mass and pricing first time buyers out of the market. Relocating professionals with remote jobs may be a small percentage but I've seen bidding wars on 75k houses get the price to 115k. That behavior has made many of the suburb price hikes ridiculous. Houses that we 25k four years ago get painted and near carpet and are going for 80k to 110k. Affordable for many but still very very frustrating to see the departure from reality-based market movement. The housing market resembles buying art more than buying traditional products or assets right now and I hope it stops soon or the new bottom will still be unattainable for most.
@@jonbravo9278 Well, if there's anything to learn from my market (Dallas), terrible weather won't stop anything. Prices in the region are about 50% higher than the bottom of the great recession (prior to 2020). Prices are up 16% here YOY 2020-2021. This is despite the fact there are plenty of hail storms, tornadoes, flash floods, etc. Homeowners insurance is HIGH, so is property tax. I'm not sure about OKC but developers here have been pumping so much supply, it's going to soften up at some point.
How did Lubbock, TX rank?
Not bad! Cheap prices, okay job growth, high rental yields.
hi
Another great video. Thanks
Thank you!
1.6k thumb ups, 16 thumb downs.👍keep up the good work.
Woot woot! Thank you!
Springfield, MO desirable? Hmmm
An example of affordable and increasing desirability is the west side of Palmdale, CA. There is good job growth now. I bought here in 2018 for 255,000. Low crime, increasing number of jobs. If you go up north about 20- 40 miles a bit to California City and Lake LA, sure you can buy a house for 150,000 dollars but there are few municipal services and high crime and they aren't near jobs. However, interestingly enough, there are some great schools in these areas. Go figure. I think you should have upped the typical price to 250,000.
Great updates.
There is an article on Yahoo home page this morning titled “40 Cities That Could be Poised For a Housing Crisis”, among the 40 cities there are Winston-Salem, NC, Augusta, GA. But according to your data the housing market of the two cities is pretty healthy. Would you please explain?
Thanks for the comment, Clara! A housing crash typically occurs when two more of these things occurs - huge appreciation, lots of home building, and economic contraction. The markets covered in this video have had more moderate levels of appreciation, lower home building, and stable economies.
Hello