It looks to me like Zillow and others are intentionally driving up prices. They buy a number of houses in a given market, often distressed, discounted houses, with the intention of flipping them. They send in a cleaning crew, do some painting and minor repairs, then put the houses on the market at significantly higher prices. But their asking price isn't what drives the market. What drives the market is actual sales prices. Appraisals are based on Comps. There are numerous examples of Zillow and others suddenly, and inexplicably paying way too much for a particular house. Why would a business built on "Buy Low, Sell High," pay thousands over market value for a house? Because doing so drives up the perceived value of all of their other houses. If I've got 12 houses in a relatively small area, all very similar in size and features, and all appraising at around $350k based on recent comps, then I buy a similar house in the same area for $400k, the values on all of those other houses are going to jump up to around that $400k mark, and even if I eventually lose a few bucks selling the house I paid too much for, I made enough on the inflated prices of the others to easily absorb the minor loss. This looks like classic market manipulation to me.
Not true. Zillow is now trying to crash the market by reducing values overnight. In part I agree with you. They drive up prices and then drive them down. Makes you wonder if they are reliable at all.
I think their intention is to drive up the prices by buying just enough properties at way above market value to put those high comps in and drive up the prices, tapping into greed of ppl who would not have otherwise listed their homes. Now those local ppl are homeless living in campers. Same happening in used car market. This is a calculated take over of our economy by whoever controls zillow and carvana. That's what's going on. Time to wake up now. It cannot be explained any other way. It's the great reset.
As a person who moved to Florida during the early 2000's and then moved back up north after 13 years. If you do decide to move south, don't carry a mortgage if you plan on working for someone if you can help it. Wages don't compare to the northeast and bubbles hit harder in the south when they burst and employers start cutting jobs and wages to save themselves
The market crash prediction has been going for months now, imagine if you've invested heavy then. The truth is no one actually knows if the crash is gonna happen. some said it will happen immediately after the election, hello we're done with the election now. You just have to invest smartly . I'm glad it worked for me with the help of an investment advisor, I recently added my $35k profits to my portfolio.
I'm new to the stock market, learned so much already online and obsessing atm, i need monitoring and guidance as i'm desperate to get into investing now, please can you share more info about your investment advisor?
Just looked at the Sacramento/Roseville market on Zillow and saw some slight reduction in prices, but it's still at an all time high. A price reduction of -$10,000 on a listing price of $800,000; when the house should only be worth $550k tops, doesn't really appeal to me. I'll continue to sit on the sidelines.
Same. We have the same issue in Orange County California. A basic track home, built-in 1950s, about 2,000 ft², 3 to 4 bedrooms. A reasonable price based on wages and more average interest rates would be around $550-600k. But all those homes are going for 800k+ right now. And it's highly likely these homes are going to need a decent amount of money to fix them up or upgrade them. If you want a nice home, either something upgraded, remodeled or new, You're going to be paying close to a million dollars. And it's not a special home it's just new. I'm waiting this out.
Tampa area resident here - bought my house in Pasco County, on August 27th 2020 for $350K. It's now valued at close to $500K. Anyone who thinks this is sustainable or isn't a bubble has no idea what they are talking about.
No way should a stucco track home with no yard and no craftsmanship in the middle of desert, like Nevada and Arizona. Should ever reach upwards to a half a million dollars. It's ridiculous.
My Zillow is humming...I set it to send house under 300k when I moved to DFW 6 months ago. I would get 1 per week. Now I'm getting 10 per day. Some have dropped 25k.
Yes!! Thanks for sharing the truth. I live in Surprise a city outside Phoenix and the prices are through the roof!! We're renting and thought we'd be able to buy a home in 2021 but because we watch what was going on (saw this happening in Florida when we lived there in 2006-2008) we refused to be caught in the bubble that will at some point bust!
The realtors usually will say it's a good time to buy... because that is how they get paid... The root of the issue is a shortage of homes .. spending time in the circles of conversion with people in the business of selling is useless. they also tell sellers this is top of the market and you should sell. I would like to know why the builders are not ramping up production.. Thanks
It’s realtor not realator and most realtors I’ve ever known say they don’t have a crystal ball. Many don’t know what’s going to happen at all and don’t pretend to know. Please don’t scapegoat realtors!
@@allisonhunt1134 Hi Allison. My wife and I have been looking at several cities in Florida and consequently with several local realtors. Every single one of them have said some version of everybody wants to move here. You better buy because next week the prices will be higher! Every single one!
@@allisonhunt1134 Realtors compensation is a percentage of the sales price so don't tell me they have any incentive in getting the buyer the best price.
A few thoughts: 1. Anyone that goes into a sales office (builder) and exclaims how much cheaper is is to buy when compared to their state deserves all the financial misfortune they ultimately encounter… you should know the pricing differential BEFORE you ever leave Cali or NY. 2. Anyone saying that there won’t be a crash THIS TIME because of low inventory, buyer demand, enhanced sunbelt migration, low interest rates yada yada yada is a fool! What do you think folks were saying in 2007/2008??? Newsflash: They weren’t saying things are starting to look bleak so we’d better “batten down the hatches.” Nope!! Almost NOBODY saw what was coming which is how it always works. The manipulators have to make the variables different so that the masses are drawn into thinking everything is peachy. This is why 2007/2008 looked nothing like 2000/2001. If we KNEW the variables then we’d never get caught with our pants down. THEY have to make us think all is well in order to exact maximum damage on the greatest number of folks, plain and simple! Yes, THINGS ARE DIFFERENT this time around, but don’t discount what’s going to occur at some point over the next 6 months or so. What goes UP UP UP will come DOWN DOWN DOWN… just the triggers for the slide will catch many off guard as usual. I suspect Geo-political events WILL cause the severely overvalued DOW and RE markets to crash. It may end up being a series of crashes, yet the net loss WILL BE staggering. Just watch…
Hey Brother, the day after watching this I was at a job talking to a realtor I was talking to him about should I buy or wait since the prices have magnified 5X since 2016. He said. "Well it's not going to get any cheaper" I held back the laughter thinking about your Boise Idaho video. Now I am in a bright yellow state. So I see the reasoning. (Product in demand) yet I've looked at so many graphs mostly stocks & metals nothing goes straight up without a correction. Then add all the dangers. 1 big 1 I've been watching is If evergrande goes under it will ripple across the world. You know Blackwater does alot of business with them and Blackwater owns alot of houses... whole neighborhoods... Im ready to buy but I'm gonna hold out. 🤔
Thanks for the comment! Love the point you're making related to stocks/metals. The US Housing Market is more and more beginning to resemble the volatility/price behavior of these other assets.
Real estate follows the laws of supply and demand. Real estate follows mathematical cycles. Real estate is not affected by high unemployment, pandemics etc. Historically the US real estate market has never crashed with less than a 69% owner popution rate. We are at roughly 65% right now and climbing by a half a percent per year. Again, real estate follows the laws of supply and demand and we are greatly under supplied. I highly suggest you get in as soon as possible with these current interest rates and then get out no later than 2027/2028 (at the rate we are building currently).
Heed this dire warning!! Believe me from personal experience, buying at the top of the bubble (2005) is the worst when you need to sell after the bubble bursts and you wait several years thinking that the market will recover yet have to settle for a loss (2012) and pony up thousands just to unload and pay off the mortgage and move elsewhere. FYI it was due to family size and space needs and wasn’t due to my finances or job, it was value of the condo property and location. Won’t get FOMOed again !!!
Yea, me too. Bought a place in upstate ny on 2007 and had to keep renting it out on a loose after lost my job and relocated else where. Sold it 2 years ago, finally, with 30% loss.....fm
@@johndemario8173 where you guys live? As the videos show some area never recovered. I could had made it even if I held it for another 2 years but it'd be 2 more years of loose and headaches. I moved to Arizona two years ago, just renewed my 12 month rent at 20% hike....
I'm with you. Got burned once, lesson learned. This time I'm mortgage free and sold my other house 2 months ago and have investment money for when this crash hits. Trying to get my siblings to partner up on an apartment building to secure my nieces' and nephews' futures. Stay ahead of the bubble or lose your savings staying afloat through the burst
There is a lot of overpriced junk in the market now. There are very few fully updated homes for sale. Everything that I see feels like people just cleaned out their house and are just now getting it on the market. Entry level priced right homes do seem to be going quickly but I have seen some clunkers that might have been scooped up immediately in April 21 are now sitting for longer and I assume selling for under.
Buying a used house is like buying a used car-you are simply buying someone else's problems. And unfortunately, just like the used car salesman, the typical real estate broker could care less about any actual and specific problems that the house for sale might have, as long as they get their cut.
I have seen trash house that sat in the market in 2019, and they were pleading for people to buy them. No takers. Same trash back on the market in 2021, and they are coming in at 150-200K above their original ask in 2019. However, this time there are buyers.
You should start watermarking or adding a logo to your charts in your videos. I've seen at least one finance channel present a screenshot of one of your graphs without attribution recently.
In regards to new construction, a lot of people coming from places like NYC or SF make the mistake of thinking that cities in Texas and Florida have the same NIMBY culture or general restrictions on new housing. A lot of the price appreciation those two cities is due to a lot of rules that heavily distort the supply of new housing.
This is a really great comparison. Some of these markets are in BIG bubbles. I’d love to see an overlay of those markets that Zillow is actively buying homes in. They are the biggest speculators of all.
I’m a builder and developer in the Nashvillle TN area. Housing is driven by jobs. We have a severe home shortage. There is 5 to10 buyers for every home built. There are so many new jobs coming here. It will take 10 years to catch up with demand. Their is so little land available that has access to sewer. Builders can’t find lots to build on. Due to COVID it’s taking 50 % longer to build a home. Their is shortages on most materials and our cost have gone up on everything. The last ten properties I have tried to buy. I have offered over the asking price and offered cash and to close in less than 30 days. I have not gotten a single property. I’m am not a liar. I feel you are putting out click bait and don’t understand the unique economic conditions we are dealing with. We are getting so many big companies moving their headquarters here to get away from high tax’s, repressive laws and high cost of living. The people moving hear from California are driving up prices. They have loads of cash and still see our housing as a bargain compared to where they left.
@@mikeystepback8639 The jobs are high paying. Amazon, Oracle, Facebook, GM battery factory all bringing thousands of jobs. Every week we get announcements of another company moving its head quarters here from California. We have nowhere near the housing to handle the influx of people moving into the community. Municipalities are raising fees to help pay for infrastructure but are way behind. Jobs drives the housing market and I don’t see it letting up or catching up for a long time.
Thank you for sharing this. I have family that lives in those cities. And yes they said migration is up a tad but these price increases seem insane compatitively.
I live in Clearwater Florida and this explains so much about the real estate market here. I knew something wasn't making sense and your facts and figures have clarified that. Thank you so much.
Thanks for your work. One note: don't get fooled by thinking Austin has anything to do with Texas. We say, "Austin is an interesting place to visit, and is only thirty miles from Texas." Look at Waco, Abilene, Tyler or Paris to see what Texas is about. For other metros, look at Fort Bend County (Houston suburbs) or Waxahachie (Dallas).
Yep here in New Braunfels we refer to Austin as ‘100 sq mi of weird, surrounded by reality’ and I’m originally from Austin. With that said, this time around, although not as extreme as Austin, Houston and Dallas has had steep increases and is due for a pull back
Thanks Nick, you need to also show how many first time home buyers are included that already live in those states that will not be included in migration. Also, there is a significant amount of private equity buying up houses in the south as well which is driving up demand. Lastly, it would be good if you could show the number of houses available, both new and existing, compared to the amount of total demand including migration, first time home buyers, and investment companies. This would give us the full picture on if realtors are lying or not. Might be good to look at the status of rents and rental properties in these markets as well, as these have gone up substantially as well.
Hi, Nick. Great video. I think you hit most of the fundamentals, but there is one more issue that has an effect on demand other than migration. That's interest rates. People that can't qualify at 5-6% may be able to qualify at today's historically low rates. Which means more buyers for the same amount of inventory. This creates the sellers market that we're currently experiencing. With that comes buyers paying over appraised value for homes which is addition upward pressure on prices. I think that in the long term, prices will level off, but a decline in home prices like we saw in the 2007-2010 era is unlikely without some other factor coming into play.
As someone who is migrating from NY to CLT, I think the census data may show a lag. Here is what I mean. 1st, you make a decision to move... Then 6months pass looking, then you decide to build a new house and pull permits over another 3 months, then you wait 12months to build with COVID delays, then you move in and CHANGE YOUR RESIDENCY. For me that's almost a 1.5yr lag in residency to when the transaction happened. Everything you said in this video is accurate, this is just an added hypothesis to factor in and see if migration data is factoring in this lag for new construction which is a large % of Sunbelt growth. I am still a NY resident waiting... I bet I am not alone.
Thanks for the comment, Damian! This is a very interesting point and you might be right. I'm curious as to what the 2021 migration figures will look like. Something to consider is that real-time data from USPS change of address says the migration trends have already started to reverse (more people moving back to NYC/BOS/LA), but we will have to see. www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/migration-in-the-first-half-of-2021
Sometimes I think that they are trying to recoup the money they have lost over 2020, just like the car companies. Car companies are at record profits, despite selling fewer cars.
The other thing you should consider is that TX has been below national avg for housing for 30 yrs. We may in part just be catching up to national averages.
@@blakejohnson3864 no agenda with this video... What are your suspicions? I had expected a rant that forecasted a downturn across the nation, yet the analysis here was quite regionalized. Seems congruent with the data I'm watching vis-a-vis Zillow and redfin.
@@blakejohnson3864 SO: the big takeaway from this video is basically - if you're buying in the south, then wait for prices to decrease. In other videos, he makes the case that recent spike is due to investors vs primaries - concluding that investors sell more quickly than primaries. That is true, but typically such investors are not as desperate for quick sales as long as rents support the investment - i.e. they're not so heavily leveraged and thus they can play the long game. This probably means the first derivative of the decline in prices is not as steep - i.e. it's not a CRASH per se (notwithstanding increase in inventory) - more like a downward slope - waiting for the upturn. There is a saying in the Philippines which translates to: He/She who has the longest fuse (as in firecracker/bomb fuse) wins. And it's a way for the rich to squeeze out the ones with lesser resources by simply outlasting them. One strategy to ensure you don't buy at the peak is to buy NEW HOMES in a desirable location. Then you'll have an entity on youre side of the housing wars, an entity that has a lot of resources and who can 'control' the supply-side of the market by increasing or decreasing the pace at which new homes are built - in such a way that the price is monotonically increasing. You'll be riding on the backs of people with long fuses.
That is exactly what the realtors here in Dallas are telling us. I smelled a rat when one said the trend was going to continue for the foreseeable future.
Because of the internet and social media, everything gets exaggerated. People are nomadic creatures, they've been moving and migrating for thousand of years. Following the food supply or weather.
Thank you for your genius analysis. Not joking. I think I figured out why prices are so high. We only need one desperate buyer to pay too much for all the comps to go up. The same way it is with desperate sellers. When a seller is desperate, he sells very low. He just set the comp for that area. That is why when we finally get some desperate sellers, the game is over. They are not desperate yet. I’m in Dallas and I have seen a house sit there for two months so far. They have not budged. We also need to focus on per square foot price. I think some houses are double what they should be. I’m looking forward to the rental market crash. I do see it softening. It should be about a dollar a square foot. Thanks for your videos. You cut through the bs.
Great video. How about a video on what rental prices did over these same timelines in these areas. I’m very curious how these inflated prices affect the rental market as they fluctuate. If you’re buying a long term investment property at the top of the market at a low interest rate and rent prices continue to increase even when the market crashes I guess it doesn’t really matter if you bought high.
@@johndemario8173 I stay for the weather and scenery. Unfortunately, it's become very expensive to live here. Rent prices are absurd. I actually pay less for my mortgage than what my daughter was paying for rent. She has recently moved back home because she can't afford to live on her own. Investor's are buying up property's and charging high rent everywhere.
I have a question. I live in the NorthEast, and house prices are incredibly high right now-people paying 20-60k over asking, non-contingent offers, cash offers, houses selling within a couple days of listing. With all the net loss migration from this area, how is what is happening remotely justified?
There was a lumber shortage for a while. Prices have dropped back down so construction will get cheaper again. Maybe that had a big effect on the prices.
I found the historical data interesting and was surprised. However, it's a little hard to see dates in these graphs and wondering if it's apples to apples? The migration number appears to be mid 2020 (please correct me if I am wrong), but the housing increase goes through mid year 2021? If that is the case, then we really need to see the population change from 2020 to 2021 don't we? It's only a year, but there was a major upset to the system in 2020 and 2021 that may have changed the historical migration?
It would be great to have access to the data charts -- as soon as I started typing that, in the video he said that it's available to members. May have to do that. As an active duty servicemember looking to buy a home in the future, I think this channel is going to be a big help for me and my future family. Subscribed.
The other issue is the iventory reduction came as a result of COVID in 2020. If you don't include 2021 numbers on one side, but do include it on the other side, then your data is faulty. Good catch.
I live in Ohio and it’s completely over priced my realtor was not honest/upfront was pushing over priced houses on me & my business partner I’m SO happy we followed our gut instinct & did NOT reinvest (we had our first flip back in April) ..I really appreciate this channel !
I’ve lived in Clearwater Florida Saint Pete Tampa area for the last 20 years. And I have never seen in the last year so many tags from out of state my commute used to take 15 minutes it’s almost doubled in the last year. I have literally had people knocking on my door asking when I’m going to be finished renovating a house so that they can rent it. I’ve never seen anything like it it’s insane here. I think the pandemic has increased the population in Florida exponentially. I’m sure that the data will show this for 2021.
Thank you for your feedback. I'm looking into Indian River and Martin Counties on the East Coast, because I want to get away from constant traffic and overpopulation. I'm going down Oct to look around and dont want to be stuck in tourist traffic.
I can't agree more! I am a CA resident who just invested in some rentals in Clearwater and north of Tampa and the first day I listed one property for rent in Clearwater I had over 1,000 unique views on my listing and it rented to a very qualified tenant (800 FICO, great job) within one day! It seems like the whole country is moving to FL now. My realtor says he will only work with cash buyers and maybe with some buyers with very strong conventional loans and large downpayments because in this market shopping around with an FHA loan is a complete waste of time as no one is even viewing offers with FHA loans
@@Johnny-Utah-91 Yes. After 20 years, we left Florida 3 years ago to 6 acres in the country in the Midwest. No regrets. Have kept an eye on the Tampa Bay area where we moved from and it is a disaster zone especially with people from the N.E. moving in. Sad...it is no where near the great place it once was.
Really enjoy your videos. Here In Nashville, I think our increase in price has to do a lot with land supply and demand. We used to have large lots with smaller homes which are almost all gone now and replaced with two or three houses on the same lot. Not many lots left to build on except to move out to the burbs.
Smart move to use migration data from the 90’s. I wonder other than people moving to the sunbelt, are we seeing a surge in second home transactions? Is it significant enough to drive up house prices?
Thanks for the comment, Cecilia! There was a big surge in 2nd home purchases in late 2020/early 2021. Given how low inventory is in the winter in general that could certainly be one explanation of why prices spiked.
"Northeast been hemorrhaging people for 3 decades" And yet real estate prices there, e.g. Boston area, have been skyrocketing over that time. I lived there and saw it.
Most realtors have very short careers and there are a few which are very good. If you are looking for a realtor find someone who was in the business prior to 2008.
It would be beneficial to take into account the number of hi-tech companies moving to the south as well. For example, in 2020-2021, Ebay, Apple, Facebook and Dell have or plan to establish a bigger footprint in Austin. The same can be said for Raleigh which is a high-tech job market. Higher salaries mean higher prices.
All I know is that people are still paying more for homes than some are listed for. A three bedroom townhome listed at $399,000 sold for $480,000 just a few days ago. I live in Ottawa, Canada.
These data aren’t indicative of a housing bubble, but rather a reflection of high income individuals migrating to these cities during COVID. The majority of these folks have good credit and a lot of cash. Prices aren’t going anywhere.
We just bought a house for $515k. YEAH WE GOT (supposed to be) RIPPED off. BUT..... we Did SELL our old house for a LOT MORE than we expected to get for it. $385k So for that HIGH PRICE we sold our house for. It basically MAKES UP for the high price we paid for our new UPGRADED home. Reason for moving, we want a nicer home in a nicer area. An UPGRADE in other words. Going from a 2 bed 1 bath older home built in 1942 to a 3 bed, 2 bad house built in 1985 And all that equity from our old home, it made buying this new home SO MUCH EAISER. Not only that,, we were able to pay off every bill we had, and still have a lot of equity to keep in our pockets.
Of course they lie. Their first lie is calling themselves "professionals." Really? Take a bird college course to get a license deserves the title of professional? LOL
We moved from Connecticut to Kentucky ten years ago. Kentucky home prices have doubled. I do not believe you get more for your dollar here any longer at all. Taxes are also creeping up. Incomes are certainly not keeping up.
Thanks for the local insight, Dave! It's alarming to here that about a place like Kentucky. However, according to some of my metrics, it is still fairly affordable compared to many other parts of the country.
@@blakejohnson3864 It’s immigration, family formation, and people are living longer, and while CA pop has grown about 33% over the last 25 years, TX is up over 75% during that same time. If things were to continue like this, and they probably won’t, but if they did TX pop would surpass CA pop by 2040-2042
Here, in Western Pennsylvania, Real estate agencies are pushing the validity of a 40% price hike between January and April 2021. I am calling “bullshit”, but panicked buyers are paying these hyperinflated prices. Low quality homes are selling for over $250/sq ft. We recently had a luxury build priced for us, at $165/sq ft. Land cost and lot development don’t account for the difference.
I agree with your points but I also want to point out that this map has some bad data. It says CA has 30 million people when it has about 40 million people. Another example, this map says that MA has 5 million something people but it actually has 6.9 million people. I'm sure if I took the time to look up the other states they would all be bad data on this map. I feel like the person who came up with this map used old data for the state populations and new data for the migration numbers to make their point seem more dramatic, hence the red color coding. I would emplore you to do a little research on statistics, maybe take a class or something, so you can figure out which data are reasonable and which sets of data should be thrown out. When someone is miss-represents the actual population of California by 25%, that's some really fuzzy math! If there are 1.5 million who have fled CA and we all know that there are 40 million people in CA, not 30 million, that puts the migration rate at about 3.7%, not the 5% that is being portrayed in this map. Yes, 3.7$ is also very high, I just don't know why some of these jokers who make fancy maps like these feel the need to fudge the data to make their argument more dramatic. Do they think that the average person isn't bright enough to realize that 3.7% is a huge number so they have to fudge the numbers to make it look like its 5%? Why can people be honest? Don't trust data that comes from anyone who collects a paycheck. Let the people in the colleges and the scientists provide the real data, better yet, people of America, take a couple of on-line math classes and learn the stuff you never learned the first time around and start using a knowledge of statistics and common sense to help you to distinguish good data from bad.
Did you watch the video smart guy? He tells you why the population data is so low, and it’s not because his data is bad. You spelled implore wrong by the way.
Where I live in mn I'm a hour north from Saint Paul and house prices have almost tripled even tho people are not moving up here. Most houses have stayed vacant for atleast a year. Yet prices keep going up. Seems fishy af.
How does the data account for 2nd homes? I am in Minnesota and I feel that everybody wants to buy in AZ or FL and as they get closer to retirement, but they are all keeping my residence.
Yes I have multiple friends that are willing to buy now in South West and South East and just eat the payment for a few years. Like 10-20% of my 50+ yr old friends. So they are gobbling up inventory and keeping house empty 90% of year
Don't buy in Az. The the market is egregiously over price and the weather is extremely hot! Lots who bought in Az in April - June 2021 are now experiencing the hot heat and feeling the mistake of paying the inflated price that will drop 30-50% in 2022.
I hope that kind of data will be available soon also for Germany. Everyone is going crazy to buy buy buy even if they already have a home…. I hope this insanity will end soon. Keep up the good work 🙏!!!
So I live in the Boise area and I'm tell you the migration here is through the roof bro. We have had that 50% increase in permits but the houses and apartments have been filling up as fast as they can build them. That is... until VERY recently. We are starting to see a large increase in listings and it's starting to finally increase faster than they are filling up. The traffic here has gotten absolutely INSANE the past few years. I was born and raised here so I have watched the growth.
The area I grew up in,in the UK is crazy now. Although the population has gone up a bit it feels much more. Back in my childhood we were thought to be posh as we had a knackered old mini, people just didn't have many cars, now just about every adult has one making traffic a nightmare. Also the amount of people per house has gone down meaning more houses are needed.
Very interesting video thank you. However, I have lived in Vegas 20 years and have watched my area in the last year and a half go from a quiet suburban lifestyle to a packed to the rafters high traffic crazy area. Easily 1 out of every 10 cars on the road has out of state plates. They are building apartment buildings on every empty lot. Its a disaster.
While I love your analysis, you fail to mention two key differences leading to excessive price growth in 2007-2009 and today. First, in the current boom, interest rates are extraordinarily low making payments far more affordable. Second, In the 2007-2009 period, it was possible to get low and even 0% financing! This meant that the banks ultimately carried much of the pain…But your big lie analysis is right on.
As a Raleigh resident I agree 110% We are already seeing the pullback on some of the over valued homes staying on the market much longer. Since the city will be buying my house for Eminent domain I hope the prices stay high for a few more months.
I understand your point. But, what you don't understand is what sellers are dealing with in FL. You put your house on the market and it, literally sells over the phone for cash, with no contingencies. So, what would you do? List it as a final and best in 2 days. Watch the desperate people trying to get out of the political Sheeet Shows of NY and Cali bid stupid money, which actually isn't bad compared to where they are coming from. And let me assure you, even at a max bid, FL, TX, TN, NC, SC are insanely better than the exit states. Just talking from experience and what I hear from everyone leaving the Bay area, and Tri-State area. Politica and taxes are a completely fixable thing, if you actually want to fix them. Poop on the streets of SF, needles all over LA, crime in NYC. Who the hell wouldn't give a limb to leave those holes? You need to do more than just look at charts young fella, or you will be the one getting run over by your own advice. Yes buying high is a bad idea, but not if you are buying a seat on a life boat on the Titanic.
One strange thing I have noticed is when home prices started to shoot up during COVID I started seeing more houses in wrong categories like if there is a lack of supply they are saying here, look at these, even though I did not search for them. One example is that Mobile homes started showing as built on site when filtered. Sure, it is their platform and website but man does that drive me crazy.
Great video again! Would building a custom home on your own land (Tucson) be a bad idea right now? Are prices for custom homes following the same trends as resale homes? Thanks for the helpful data driven video!
Nick you are a good man! Thanks for all of your hard work, invaluable data and exposing these RE agents to be the lying weasels they are, especially here in the Atlanta area....
You got that right! iv'e Been in North Atlanta 30 years and it sucks here now with all the nut cases moving here and the wannabe landlords/agents are jerks..I want to see the look on their faces when all hell breaks loose
@@ReventureConsulting I’m sorry, which video exactly? Also, do you have any recent video on Miami and/or Southern Florida?? I have a brother who is a CPA in Miami as well as others in real estate and finance who think Miami is not going to experience a downturn….
Very siloed data analysis. Doesn’t take into consideration of corporate migration and booming tech/healthcare in Austin and Raleigh…. Bringing in high income earners from high taxed states
Agreed, plus vast generalizations about the perspectives of real estate professional. A great real estate agent or investor will tell you there’s more to investing than the current price. Take into account extremely low interest rates, hyper inflation, and whether a property cash flows. I think your prospective is interesting but has a slightly narrow lens. Not everyone is lying. I tell my clients I can’t predict the future. We can only show clients historical data and where we are right now. Neither you or anyone else can predict anything beyond that with any certainty.
That was my initial response. It's not necc that PEOPLE are moving that's fueling the growth but the fact that companies are. Actual, live bodies, might follow much later.
Thank you so much! I've been wanting to move out of Philadelphia to Raleigh for a little while now. I have some challenges as I am disabled from a stroke & can no longer drive so I need to be near some form of public transportation. My house is also in need of work so I have decided to just sell it for cash. And as i have gotten the best offer to sell my house in Philly, the prices of the homes in Raleigh make it almost impossible for me to make this move right now. I hope I am making the right decision to wait a little while, as i really don't have many other options. I even thought of selling & taking an apartment in Raleigh, but the rent in both Philly & Raleigh are outrageous & I just can't justify paying double my mortgage. Philadelphia has gotten really bad & dangerous & out of control & I want to live somewhere nice for the rest of my days. Like I said, I hope I'm making the right decision & make it to my little slice of happy b4 I run out of days! Lol! If anyone has any other suggestions of where is a good place to move that does have access to public transportation, I'd love to hear them! Thank you again for all of this eye opening information! SUBSCRIBED!
Migration points are interesting but is it the complete picture? Like the impact of decreased interest rates, lowering of supply by corporate investment, and increasing rates of renting. Guess you can throw in government intervention. Millennials also learned from the previous housing crash choosing to accumulate wealth before jumping to ownership, plus the backstop of people who had to rebuild wealth after losing their homes during the last crash.
I moved to Southwest FL 4 years ago. The amount of listings inventory from then to now is down 60% if the property for sale is in a desirable area it has mass amounts of multiple offers in one day. Nothing is for sale im my neighborhood currently. 64% of houses in my county are bought in cash. It is driving up prices since they offer whatever it takes to purchase the property. Most people used to buy 2nd homes here but it is now families moving in. 2000 new kids enter the county school system every year. They build new schools to handle the increases. In my area its as hot of a market as realtors say.
He did a video on Las Vegas about 3 weeks ago where he also addresses the Reno market. If you’re looking for a real estate agent, Cameron Hulsey with Stitser Properties may be able to help you. He grew up in Reno along with the Stitser family and mine and so knows the area well.
Thank you for the comment, Graham! As Andrea said above I talked about Reno in a video on Vegas that dropped several weeks back. Out of curiosity - what is prompting the move from Australia to US?
All I can say is that for a market that isn't supposed to crash, this OKC real estate market is still on fire. Every home I have tried to buy is has 10+ offers over asking price and even at $10K over with appraisal gap guarantees, I haven't been able to get one yet. It is ridiculous.
I totally agree, living here in DFW, it's grown sooooo much in 30 years. And Zillow estimate is over by 50 to 60k. That said, we are up double due to local level investment not noted in this video.
When you showed the yearly trend of migration you didn’t include the 2021 data seems like that would be insane with Florida alone having 600,000 people moving.
People forget decades ago, when software companies where moving to Austin, from Cali and Northeast, massive real estate boom, then massive dump, nothing changes, its cycles baby!
Q. In some of those cities where housing permits are down, is that do to higher taxes and building regulations that has turned investors and builders off?
100% agree! I've been saying this all year! It's market manipulation to keep people buying over-priced real estate. You'll never hear RE professionals tell you it's a bad time to buy. Of course not! RE sales is their livelihood. Plus, higher prices also means higher commissions. Helping to manipulate the RE market by creating FOMO is the media because who do they always go to for their stories and headlines? RE firms! I, myself, have been wanting to buy. But, I have known this market is not sustainable and prices are absolutely going to drop in the near future. Don't get caught underwater in a mortgage.
Seattle and all over the area has become a cesspool. Multiple shootings and murders every single day. Stay far, far away from here if you value your belongings and your life.
@@Lexxie45 not sure where you are you're getting the news from. Most of the Midwest states like Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, etc. are in the top 10 list of worst states for violent crimes. Washington is not even close. Pls check your facts. Thanks
@@ppraish I live here, trust me I know what I'm talking about. I personally experienced property crimes , auto theft, auto break ins and I live in a relatively safe area. It's not any more. Violent crimes, including murders are up in the last 2 years. One happened just a block from my house. It's an every day occurrence now. My facts are accurate. Thank you.
New Jersey has hit an all time high in housing prices...and in recent weeks there has been many listing with price drops. Homes that need a total facelift are demanding top price. NO THANKS!!! Those sellers can keep their deteriorated garbage cans!
The underlying drivers are cost of living reflected primarily in real estate and taxes. People are moving out of Blue states and into Red states which have more business-friendly environments.
Thanks for being honest. When its all said and done billions of dollars will be lost by unsuspecting buyers. So sad. As the decline in prices becomes more clear. I think we will see homeowners "panic listing" their homes and the crash will begin.
It looks to me like Zillow and others are intentionally driving up prices. They buy a number of houses in a given market, often distressed, discounted houses, with the intention of flipping them. They send in a cleaning crew, do some painting and minor repairs, then put the houses on the market at significantly higher prices. But their asking price isn't what drives the market. What drives the market is actual sales prices. Appraisals are based on Comps.
There are numerous examples of Zillow and others suddenly, and inexplicably paying way too much for a particular house. Why would a business built on "Buy Low, Sell High," pay thousands over market value for a house?
Because doing so drives up the perceived value of all of their other houses.
If I've got 12 houses in a relatively small area, all very similar in size and features, and all appraising at around $350k based on recent comps, then I buy a similar house in the same area for $400k, the values on all of those other houses are going to jump up to around that $400k mark, and even if I eventually lose a few bucks selling the house I paid too much for, I made enough on the inflated prices of the others to easily absorb the minor loss.
This looks like classic market manipulation to me.
Exactly!
Not true. Zillow is now trying to crash the market by reducing values overnight. In part I agree with you. They drive up prices and then drive them down. Makes you wonder if they are reliable at all.
I think their intention is to drive up the prices by buying just enough properties at way above market value to put those high comps in and drive up the prices, tapping into greed of ppl who would not have otherwise listed their homes. Now those local ppl are homeless living in campers. Same happening in used car market. This is a calculated take over of our economy by whoever controls zillow and carvana. That's what's going on. Time to wake up now. It cannot be explained any other way. It's the great reset.
Messed up stuff
Zillow will be bag holding soon. Good time to buy puts on Zillow stock.
As a person who moved to Florida during the early 2000's and then moved back up north after 13 years. If you do decide to move south, don't carry a mortgage if you plan on working for someone if you can help it. Wages don't compare to the northeast and bubbles hit harder in the south when they burst and employers start cutting jobs and wages to save themselves
Great advice, well explained too.
Yessir!
Awesome advice dude.
Very true my friend!
The only cheap item is the weather.
Your channel has the most value out of any real estate channel… and I’ve looked through SOOO many of them. Hahah. Thank you so much for the info!
The only thing is the realtors in Florida say things are really busy and I know they weren’t as busy 10 years ago
It really does offer the best value. Well done Sir.
Agreed. And he’s not annoying to watch like the other ones.
He's pretty spot on, data rules everything. It's nice to have had him to open up this stuff. I watch it on my own now, because of him.
In total agreement
The market crash prediction has been going for months now, imagine if you've invested heavy then. The truth is no one actually knows if the crash is gonna happen. some said it will happen immediately after the election, hello we're done with the election now. You just have to invest smartly . I'm glad it worked for me with the help of an investment advisor, I recently added my $35k profits to my portfolio.
Speculation is always bad when it looks easy just like the crash.
I heavily missed out on going into the market during the lockdown.
The real secret of building wealth is by having multiple streams of income. That includes both online and offline investments.
I'm new to the stock market, learned so much already online and obsessing atm, i need monitoring and guidance as i'm desperate to get into investing now, please can you share more info about your investment advisor?
I trade with Tamara Diane Hagan
It's all greed. The lie is being perpetuated by greed and greed alone.
This 100%.
I absolutely agree. Sincerely one of the many disgusted renters in Phoenix and the surrounding area!
Yup
How is wanting a place to live “greed” it’s better then being a renter
Just looked at the Sacramento/Roseville market on Zillow and saw some slight reduction in prices, but it's still at an all time high. A price reduction of -$10,000 on a listing price of $800,000; when the house should only be worth $550k tops, doesn't really appeal to me. I'll continue to sit on the sidelines.
Good decision,i never pay overs for property....looks like the herd is headed for a steep cliff face....
Many Zillow owned properties in the Portland area have price drops below what Zillow paid for the property 6 months ago. Don't catch a falling knife.
Same. We have the same issue in Orange County California. A basic track home, built-in 1950s, about 2,000 ft², 3 to 4 bedrooms. A reasonable price based on wages and more average interest rates would be around $550-600k. But all those homes are going for 800k+ right now. And it's highly likely these homes are going to need a decent amount of money to fix them up or upgrade them.
If you want a nice home, either something upgraded, remodeled or new, You're going to be paying close to a million dollars. And it's not a special home it's just new.
I'm waiting this out.
Same in northern NV.
Well, could it be the devaluation of dollar?
Tampa area resident here - bought my house in Pasco County, on August 27th 2020 for $350K. It's now valued at close to $500K. Anyone who thinks this is sustainable or isn't a bubble has no idea what they are talking about.
Speak truth
Yup
No way should a stucco track home with no yard and no craftsmanship in the middle of desert, like Nevada and Arizona. Should ever reach upwards to a half a million dollars. It's ridiculous.
JAJAJ!! come and tell them that. A 3 bedrooms no land is 945 thousand. It is just crazy.
Wait until he water crisis gets worse. Arid areas cannot sustain the growth
My Zillow is humming...I set it to send house under 300k when I moved to DFW 6 months ago. I would get 1 per week. Now I'm getting 10 per day. Some have dropped 25k.
Wow good to hear
As someone who grew up in dfw, these prices are hyper inflated! I do not want to spend my VA loan on a house that costs half what it’s worth!
It coming down!
How much can an Arab from Dubai with 12 million get there?
@@abdelwassimsheikh1307 get your pandora adviser to buy for you.
Yes!! Thanks for sharing the truth. I live in Surprise a city outside Phoenix and the prices are through the roof!! We're renting and thought we'd be able to buy a home in 2021 but because we watch what was going on (saw this happening in Florida when we lived there in 2006-2008) we refused to be caught in the bubble that will at some point bust!
The realtors usually will say it's a good time to buy... because that is how they get paid...
The root of the issue is a shortage of homes .. spending time in the circles of conversion with people in the business of selling is useless. they also tell sellers this is top of the market and you should sell.
I would like to know why the builders are not ramping up production..
Thanks
It’s realtor not realator and most realtors I’ve ever known say they don’t have a crystal ball. Many don’t know what’s going to happen at all and don’t pretend to know. Please don’t scapegoat realtors!
@@allisonhunt1134 Hi Allison. My wife and I have been looking at several cities in Florida and consequently with several local realtors. Every single one of them have said some version of everybody wants to move here. You better buy because next week the prices will be higher! Every single one!
@@allisonhunt1134 Realtors compensation is a percentage of the sales price so don't tell me they have any incentive in getting the buyer the best price.
@@allisonhunt1134 he didn't spell it realator. Take another look numbskull. So it's a typo. I hate grammar spelling notsees
A few thoughts:
1. Anyone that goes into a sales office (builder) and exclaims how much cheaper is is to buy when compared to their state deserves all the financial misfortune they ultimately encounter… you should know the pricing differential BEFORE you ever leave Cali or NY.
2. Anyone saying that there won’t be a crash THIS TIME because of low inventory, buyer demand, enhanced sunbelt migration, low interest rates yada yada yada is a fool! What do you think folks were saying in 2007/2008??? Newsflash: They weren’t saying things are starting to look bleak so we’d better “batten down the hatches.” Nope!! Almost NOBODY saw what was coming which is how it always works. The manipulators have to make the variables different so that the masses are drawn into thinking everything is peachy. This is why 2007/2008 looked nothing like 2000/2001. If we KNEW the variables then we’d never get caught with our pants down. THEY have to make us think all is well in order to exact maximum damage on the greatest number of folks, plain and simple! Yes, THINGS ARE DIFFERENT this time around, but don’t discount what’s going to occur at some point over the next 6 months or so. What goes UP UP UP will come DOWN DOWN DOWN… just the triggers for the slide will catch many off guard as usual. I suspect Geo-political events WILL cause the severely overvalued DOW and RE markets to crash. It may end up being a series of crashes, yet the net loss WILL BE staggering. Just watch…
Once again, an excellent video. Amazing how so many Americans forget about recent history of the last 30 - 40 years.
Hey Brother, the day after watching this I was at a job talking to a realtor I was talking to him about should I buy or wait since the prices have magnified 5X since 2016. He said. "Well it's not going to get any cheaper" I held back the laughter thinking about your Boise Idaho video. Now I am in a bright yellow state. So I see the reasoning. (Product in demand) yet I've looked at so many graphs mostly stocks & metals nothing goes straight up without a correction. Then add all the dangers. 1 big 1 I've been watching is If evergrande goes under it will ripple across the world. You know Blackwater does alot of business with them and Blackwater owns alot of houses... whole neighborhoods... Im ready to buy but I'm gonna hold out. 🤔
Thanks for the comment! Love the point you're making related to stocks/metals. The US Housing Market is more and more beginning to resemble the volatility/price behavior of these other assets.
Real estate follows the laws of supply and demand. Real estate follows mathematical cycles. Real estate is not affected by high unemployment, pandemics etc. Historically the US real estate market has never crashed with less than a 69% owner popution rate. We are at roughly 65% right now and climbing by a half a percent per year. Again, real estate follows the laws of supply and demand and we are greatly under supplied. I highly suggest you get in as soon as possible with these current interest rates and then get out no later than 2027/2028 (at the rate we are building currently).
Heed this dire warning!! Believe me from personal experience, buying at the top of the bubble (2005) is the worst when you need to sell after the bubble bursts and you wait several years thinking that the market will recover yet have to settle for a loss (2012) and pony up thousands just to unload and pay off the mortgage and move elsewhere. FYI it was due to family size and space needs and wasn’t due to my finances or job, it was value of the condo property and location. Won’t get FOMOed again !!!
Yea, me too. Bought a place in upstate ny on 2007 and had to keep renting it out on a loose after lost my job and relocated else where. Sold it 2 years ago, finally, with 30% loss.....fm
@@johndemario8173 where you guys live? As the videos show some area never recovered. I could had made it even if I held it for another 2 years but it'd be 2 more years of loose and headaches. I moved to Arizona two years ago, just renewed my 12 month rent at 20% hike....
I'm with you. Got burned once, lesson learned. This time I'm mortgage free and sold my other house 2 months ago and have investment money for when this crash hits. Trying to get my siblings to partner up on an apartment building to secure my nieces' and nephews' futures. Stay ahead of the bubble or lose your savings staying afloat through the burst
There is a lot of overpriced junk in the market now. There are very few fully updated homes for sale. Everything that I see feels like people just cleaned out their house and are just now getting it on the market. Entry level priced right homes do seem to be going quickly but I have seen some clunkers that might have been scooped up immediately in April 21 are now sitting for longer and I assume selling for under.
Buying a used house is like buying a used car-you are simply buying someone else's problems. And unfortunately, just like the used car salesman, the typical real estate broker could care less about any actual and specific problems that the house for sale might have, as long as they get their cut.
I have seen trash house that sat in the market in 2019, and they were pleading for people to buy them. No takers. Same trash back on the market in 2021, and they are coming in at 150-200K above their original ask in 2019. However, this time there are buyers.
Keep in mind the Federal Reserve has printed trillions of Dollars. This is the result.
Thanks for the comment! I did a video on Inflation two months back and addressed this very point! Give it a watch!
Love your videos, thanks for exposing the nefarious liars!! Fear and greed are the biggest motivators.
You should start watermarking or adding a logo to your charts in your videos. I've seen at least one finance channel present a screenshot of one of your graphs without attribution recently.
In regards to new construction, a lot of people coming from places like NYC or SF make the mistake of thinking that cities in Texas and Florida have the same NIMBY culture or general restrictions on new housing. A lot of the price appreciation those two cities is due to a lot of rules that heavily distort the supply of new housing.
Thanks Nick for the truth! Looking forward to "Be Careful!" video
Looking forward to you watching it!
Thank you for the information
This is a really great comparison. Some of these markets are in BIG bubbles. I’d love to see an overlay of those markets that Zillow is actively buying homes in. They are the biggest speculators of all.
I’m a builder and developer in the Nashvillle TN area. Housing is driven by jobs. We have a severe home shortage. There is 5 to10 buyers for every home built. There are so many new jobs coming here. It will take 10 years to catch up with demand. Their is so little land available that has access to sewer. Builders can’t find lots to build on. Due to COVID it’s taking 50 % longer to build a home. Their is shortages on most materials and our cost have gone up on everything. The last ten properties I have tried to buy. I have offered over the asking price and offered cash and to close in less than 30 days. I have not gotten a single property.
I’m am not a liar. I feel you are putting out click bait and don’t understand the unique economic conditions we are dealing with. We are getting so many big companies moving their headquarters here to get away from high tax’s, repressive laws and high cost of living. The people moving hear from California are driving up prices. They have loads of cash and still see our housing as a bargain compared to where they left.
It's already turning but you need to.look in your local area every where will be different....what are the jobs paying coming in?that's the key
@@mikeystepback8639 The jobs are high paying. Amazon, Oracle, Facebook, GM battery factory all bringing thousands of jobs. Every week we get announcements of another company moving its head quarters here from California. We have nowhere near the housing to handle the influx of people moving into the community. Municipalities are raising fees to help pay for infrastructure but are way behind. Jobs drives the housing market and I don’t see it letting up or catching up for a long time.
Data driven, informative and very well explained!
Your in depth analytics...saved my spouse and I from making the biggest mistake....thank you
Thank you for sharing this. I have family that lives in those cities. And yes they said migration is up a tad but these price increases seem insane compatitively.
I live in Clearwater Florida and this explains so much about the real estate market here. I knew something wasn't making sense and your facts and figures have clarified that. Thank you so much.
Thanks for your work. One note: don't get fooled by thinking Austin has anything to do with Texas. We say, "Austin is an interesting place to visit, and is only thirty miles from Texas." Look at Waco, Abilene, Tyler or Paris to see what Texas is about. For other metros, look at Fort Bend County (Houston suburbs) or Waxahachie (Dallas).
Yep here in New Braunfels we refer to Austin as ‘100 sq mi of weird, surrounded by reality’ and I’m originally from Austin. With that said, this time around, although not as extreme as Austin, Houston and Dallas has had steep increases and is due for a pull back
Even in Frisco (burb of Dallas that has A LOT of CA transplants) we don’t claim Austin.
Love this comment, Jim! I've traveled quite a bit around Texas over the last month and have noticed the same attitudes about Austin.
Thanks Nick, you need to also show how many first time home buyers are included that already live in those states that will not be included in migration. Also, there is a significant amount of private equity buying up houses in the south as well which is driving up demand. Lastly, it would be good if you could show the number of houses available, both new and existing, compared to the amount of total demand including migration, first time home buyers, and investment companies. This would give us the full picture on if realtors are lying or not. Might be good to look at the status of rents and rental properties in these markets as well, as these have gone up substantially as well.
Hi, Nick. Great video. I think you hit most of the fundamentals, but there is one more issue that has an effect on demand other than migration. That's interest rates. People that can't qualify at 5-6% may be able to qualify at today's historically low rates. Which means more buyers for the same amount of inventory. This creates the sellers market that we're currently experiencing. With that comes buyers paying over appraised value for homes which is addition upward pressure on prices. I think that in the long term, prices will level off, but a decline in home prices like we saw in the 2007-2010 era is unlikely without some other factor coming into play.
Thanks for the comment, Karl! Take a look at the video I put out two weeks back called "Mortgage Rate Crash". I address this very point!
As someone who is migrating from NY to CLT, I think the census data may show a lag. Here is what I mean. 1st, you make a decision to move... Then 6months pass looking, then you decide to build a new house and pull permits over another 3 months, then you wait 12months to build with COVID delays, then you move in and CHANGE YOUR RESIDENCY. For me that's almost a 1.5yr lag in residency to when the transaction happened. Everything you said in this video is accurate, this is just an added hypothesis to factor in and see if migration data is factoring in this lag for new construction which is a large % of Sunbelt growth. I am still a NY resident waiting... I bet I am not alone.
Thanks for the comment, Damian! This is a very interesting point and you might be right. I'm curious as to what the 2021 migration figures will look like. Something to consider is that real-time data from USPS change of address says the migration trends have already started to reverse (more people moving back to NYC/BOS/LA), but we will have to see. www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/migration-in-the-first-half-of-2021
Sometimes I think that they are trying to recoup the money they have lost over 2020, just like the car companies. Car companies are at record profits, despite selling fewer cars.
The other thing you should consider is that TX has been below national avg for housing for 30 yrs. We may in part just be catching up to national averages.
well done. graphics are spot on. no agenda except the truth. and actionable data.
@@blakejohnson3864 no agenda with this video... What are your suspicions? I had expected a rant that forecasted a downturn across the nation, yet the analysis here was quite regionalized. Seems congruent with the data I'm watching vis-a-vis Zillow and redfin.
@@blakejohnson3864 SO: the big takeaway from this video is basically - if you're buying in the south, then wait for prices to decrease. In other videos, he makes the case that recent spike is due to investors vs primaries - concluding that investors sell more quickly than primaries. That is true, but typically such investors are not as desperate for quick sales as long as rents support the investment - i.e. they're not so heavily leveraged and thus they can play the long game. This probably means the first derivative of the decline in prices is not as steep - i.e. it's not a CRASH per se (notwithstanding increase in inventory) - more like a downward slope - waiting for the upturn. There is a saying in the Philippines which translates to: He/She who has the longest fuse (as in firecracker/bomb fuse) wins. And it's a way for the rich to squeeze out the ones with lesser resources by simply outlasting them. One strategy to ensure you don't buy at the peak is to buy NEW HOMES in a desirable location. Then you'll have an entity on youre side of the housing wars, an entity that has a lot of resources and who can 'control' the supply-side of the market by increasing or decreasing the pace at which new homes are built - in such a way that the price is monotonically increasing. You'll be riding on the backs of people with long fuses.
Best real estate channel hands down. Thank you.
Constant % over time is exponential growth. A lot of people don't realize this.
That is exactly what the realtors here in Dallas are telling us. I smelled a rat when one said the trend was going to continue for the foreseeable future.
Because of the internet and social media, everything gets exaggerated. People are nomadic creatures, they've been moving and migrating for thousand of years. Following the food supply or weather.
Thank you for your genius analysis. Not joking. I think I figured out why prices are so high. We only need one desperate buyer to pay too much for all the comps to go up. The same way it is with desperate sellers. When a seller is desperate, he sells very low. He just set the comp for that area. That is why when we finally get some desperate sellers, the game is over. They are not desperate yet. I’m in Dallas and I have seen a house sit there for two months so far. They have not budged. We also need to focus on per square foot price. I think some houses are double what they should be. I’m looking forward to the rental market crash. I do see it softening. It should be about a dollar a square foot. Thanks for your videos. You cut through the bs.
Great video. How about a video on what rental prices did over these same timelines in these areas. I’m very curious how these inflated prices affect the rental market as they fluctuate. If you’re buying a long term investment property at the top of the market at a low interest rate and rent prices continue to increase even when the market crashes I guess it doesn’t really matter if you bought high.
@@johndemario8173 I stay for the weather and scenery. Unfortunately, it's become very expensive to live here. Rent prices are absurd. I actually pay less for my mortgage than what my daughter was paying for rent. She has recently moved back home because she can't afford to live on her own.
Investor's are buying up property's and charging high rent everywhere.
I have a question. I live in the NorthEast, and house prices are incredibly high right now-people paying 20-60k over asking, non-contingent offers, cash offers, houses selling within a couple days of listing. With all the net loss migration from this area, how is what is happening remotely justified?
There was a lumber shortage for a while. Prices have dropped back down so construction will get cheaper again. Maybe that had a big effect on the prices.
Knowledge is power. You're doing good work. Thank you.
I found the historical data interesting and was surprised. However, it's a little hard to see dates in these graphs and wondering if it's apples to apples? The migration number appears to be mid 2020 (please correct me if I am wrong), but the housing increase goes through mid year 2021? If that is the case, then we really need to see the population change from 2020 to 2021 don't we? It's only a year, but there was a major upset to the system in 2020 and 2021 that may have changed the historical migration?
I think because the migration is based on tax filings and people have not filed 2021 taxes.
It would be great to have access to the data charts -- as soon as I started typing that, in the video he said that it's available to members. May have to do that. As an active duty servicemember looking to buy a home in the future, I think this channel is going to be a big help for me and my future family. Subscribed.
The other issue is the iventory reduction came as a result of COVID in 2020. If you don't include 2021 numbers on one side, but do include it on the other side, then your data is faulty. Good catch.
I live in Ohio and it’s completely over priced my realtor was not honest/upfront was pushing over priced houses on me & my business partner I’m SO happy we followed our gut instinct & did NOT reinvest (we had our first flip back in April) ..I really appreciate this channel !
Have we ever in history seen housing prices rise exponentially above the fundamentals but not crash back down?
always new higher highs and new higher lows
Finally!!!! This man has had enough of the BS! Love it
I’ve lived in Clearwater Florida Saint Pete Tampa area for the last 20 years. And I have never seen in the last year so many tags from out of state my commute used to take 15 minutes it’s almost doubled in the last year. I have literally had people knocking on my door asking when I’m going to be finished renovating a house so that they can rent it. I’ve never seen anything like it it’s insane here. I think the pandemic has increased the population in Florida exponentially. I’m sure that the data will show this for 2021.
Thank you for your feedback. I'm looking into Indian River and Martin Counties on the East Coast, because I want to get away from constant traffic and overpopulation. I'm going down Oct to look around and dont want to be stuck in tourist traffic.
I can't agree more! I am a CA resident who just invested in some rentals in Clearwater and north of Tampa and the first day I listed one property for rent in Clearwater I had over 1,000 unique views on my listing and it rented to a very qualified tenant (800 FICO, great job) within one day! It seems like the whole country is moving to FL now. My realtor says he will only work with cash buyers and maybe with some buyers with very strong conventional loans and large downpayments because in this market shopping around with an FHA loan is a complete waste of time as no one is even viewing offers with FHA loans
Just wait for a major Hurricane or 2 to hit FL and you will see how many people will start leaving.
@@Johnny-Utah-91 Yes. After 20 years, we left Florida 3 years ago to 6 acres in the country in the Midwest. No regrets. Have kept an eye on the Tampa Bay area where we moved from and it is a disaster zone especially with people from the N.E. moving in. Sad...it is no where near the great place it once was.
No shit man. I live in tarpon springs. Pinellas county is out of room for all these people.
Really enjoy your videos. Here In Nashville, I think our increase in price has to do a lot with land supply and demand. We used to have large lots with smaller homes which are almost all gone now and replaced with two or three houses on the same lot. Not many lots left to build on except to move out to the burbs.
Smart move to use migration data from the 90’s. I wonder other than people moving to the sunbelt, are we seeing a surge in second home transactions? Is it significant enough to drive up house prices?
Thanks for the comment, Cecilia! There was a big surge in 2nd home purchases in late 2020/early 2021. Given how low inventory is in the winter in general that could certainly be one explanation of why prices spiked.
"Northeast been hemorrhaging people for 3 decades" And yet real estate prices there, e.g. Boston area, have been skyrocketing over that time. I lived there and saw it.
Most realtors have very short careers and there are a few which are very good. If you are looking for a realtor find someone who was in the business prior to 2008.
It would be beneficial to take into account the number of hi-tech companies moving to the south as well. For example, in 2020-2021, Ebay, Apple, Facebook and Dell have or plan to establish a bigger footprint in Austin. The same can be said for Raleigh which is a high-tech job market. Higher salaries mean higher prices.
I'll give you some ideas other than migration. Covid related building shortages plus speculation plus jobs plus politics
All I know is that people are still paying more for homes than some are listed for. A three bedroom townhome listed at $399,000 sold for $480,000 just a few days ago. I live in Ottawa, Canada.
The real inflation rate is around 20%, so it makes perfect sense that houses would go up 20% right now
@Beni not necessarily. In the 1970s the interest rate was really high but also inflation was really high
These data aren’t indicative of a housing bubble, but rather a reflection of high income individuals migrating to these cities during COVID. The majority of these folks have good credit and a lot of cash. Prices aren’t going anywhere.
Lots of inventory in my area is crazy!! New homes popping every day
What area are you in?
What area is that?
We just bought a house for $515k. YEAH WE GOT (supposed to be) RIPPED off. BUT.....
we Did SELL our old house for a LOT MORE than we expected to get for it. $385k
So for that HIGH PRICE we sold our house for. It basically MAKES UP for the high price we paid for our new UPGRADED home.
Reason for moving, we want a nicer home in a nicer area. An UPGRADE in other words. Going from a 2 bed 1 bath older home built in 1942 to a 3 bed, 2 bad house built in 1985
And all that equity from our old home, it made buying this new home SO MUCH EAISER. Not only that,, we were able to pay off every bill we had, and still have a lot of equity to keep in our pockets.
2 bed 1 bath for 385k.. lol nuts.
Of course they lie. Their first lie is calling themselves "professionals." Really? Take a bird college course to get a license deserves the title of professional? LOL
We moved from Connecticut to Kentucky ten years ago. Kentucky home prices have doubled. I do not believe you get more for your dollar here any longer at all. Taxes are also creeping up. Incomes are certainly not keeping up.
Thanks for the local insight, Dave! It's alarming to here that about a place like Kentucky. However, according to some of my metrics, it is still fairly affordable compared to many other parts of the country.
When you hovered over CA and it said the population is 30 million, I knew this data had to be old.
Yup me too.
Hard to believe CA has gone from 30m ppl then to 40m ppl now. Also TX only had 17m ppl whereas they have about 30m ppl now
@@blakejohnson3864 It’s immigration, family formation, and people are living longer, and while CA pop has grown about 33% over the last 25 years, TX is up over 75% during that same time. If things were to continue like this, and they probably won’t, but if they did TX pop would surpass CA pop by 2040-2042
Here, in Western Pennsylvania, Real estate agencies are pushing the validity of a 40% price hike between January and April 2021. I am calling “bullshit”, but panicked buyers are paying these hyperinflated prices. Low quality homes are selling for over $250/sq ft. We recently had a luxury build priced for us, at $165/sq ft. Land cost and lot development don’t account for the difference.
I agree with your points but I also want to point out that this map has some bad data. It says CA has 30 million people when it has about 40 million people. Another example, this map says that MA has 5 million something people but it actually has 6.9 million people. I'm sure if I took the time to look up the other states they would all be bad data on this map. I feel like the person who came up with this map used old data for the state populations and new data for the migration numbers to make their point seem more dramatic, hence the red color coding. I would emplore you to do a little research on statistics, maybe take a class or something, so you can figure out which data are reasonable and which sets of data should be thrown out. When someone is miss-represents the actual population of California by 25%, that's some really fuzzy math! If there are 1.5 million who have fled CA and we all know that there are 40 million people in CA, not 30 million, that puts the migration rate at about 3.7%, not the 5% that is being portrayed in this map. Yes, 3.7$ is also very high, I just don't know why some of these jokers who make fancy maps like these feel the need to fudge the data to make their argument more dramatic. Do they think that the average person isn't bright enough to realize that 3.7% is a huge number so they have to fudge the numbers to make it look like its 5%? Why can people be honest? Don't trust data that comes from anyone who collects a paycheck. Let the people in the colleges and the scientists provide the real data, better yet, people of America, take a couple of on-line math classes and learn the stuff you never learned the first time around and start using a knowledge of statistics and common sense to help you to distinguish good data from bad.
Did you watch the video smart guy? He tells you why the population data is so low, and it’s not because his data is bad. You spelled implore wrong by the way.
Ive found his data to be very unrealistic where I live personally.
Where I live in mn I'm a hour north from Saint Paul and house prices have almost tripled even tho people are not moving up here. Most houses have stayed vacant for atleast a year. Yet prices keep going up. Seems fishy af.
But how can more buyers get access to these facts, you need to bring this content to main stream, really appreciate your hard work.
This channel is amazing! I learn something new everytime content is uploaded ☺👍
How does the data account for 2nd homes? I am in Minnesota and I feel that everybody wants to buy in AZ or FL and as they get closer to retirement, but they are all keeping my residence.
Yes I have multiple friends that are willing to buy now in South West and South East and just eat the payment for a few years. Like 10-20% of my 50+ yr old friends. So they are gobbling up inventory and keeping house empty 90% of year
Don't buy in Az. The the market is egregiously over price and the weather is extremely hot! Lots who bought in Az in April - June 2021 are now experiencing the hot heat and feeling the mistake of paying the inflated price that will drop 30-50% in 2022.
@@RealLifeFinance no
I hope that kind of data will be available soon also for Germany. Everyone is going crazy to buy buy buy even if they already have a home…. I hope this insanity will end soon. Keep up the good work 🙏!!!
So I live in the Boise area and I'm tell you the migration here is through the roof bro. We have had that 50% increase in permits but the houses and apartments have been filling up as fast as they can build them. That is... until VERY recently. We are starting to see a large increase in listings and it's starting to finally increase faster than they are filling up. The traffic here has gotten absolutely INSANE the past few years. I was born and raised here so I have watched the growth.
The area I grew up in,in the UK is crazy now. Although the population has gone up a bit it feels much more. Back in my childhood we were thought to be posh as we had a knackered old mini, people just didn't have many cars, now just about every adult has one making traffic a nightmare. Also the amount of people per house has gone down meaning more houses are needed.
Can confirm. Haven't lived here as long though. I'm not quite sure why it's booming so much though.
@Shane So you are against the freedom of movement with in a persons own country. Somewhat totalitarian.
@Shane Can't stop the flow of change.
Very interesting video thank you. However, I have lived in Vegas 20 years and have watched my area in the last year and a half go from a quiet suburban lifestyle to a packed to the rafters high traffic crazy area. Easily 1 out of every 10 cars on the road has out of state plates. They are building apartment buildings on every empty lot. Its a disaster.
While I love your analysis, you fail to mention two key differences leading to excessive price growth in 2007-2009 and today. First, in the current boom, interest rates are extraordinarily low making payments far more affordable. Second, In the 2007-2009 period, it was possible to get low and even 0% financing! This meant that the banks ultimately carried much of the pain…But your big lie analysis is right on.
The interest rates being low still doesn’t add up if the house is priced 100k over what it’s really worth don’t be fooled numbers don’t lie
As a Raleigh resident I agree 110% We are already seeing the pullback on some of the over valued homes staying on the market much longer. Since the city will be buying my house for Eminent domain I hope the prices stay high for a few more months.
Thanks for the comment, Allen! Appreciate the local perspective.
I understand your point. But, what you don't understand is what sellers are dealing with in FL. You put your house on the market and it, literally sells over the phone for cash, with no contingencies. So, what would you do? List it as a final and best in 2 days. Watch the desperate people trying to get out of the political Sheeet Shows of NY and Cali bid stupid money, which actually isn't bad compared to where they are coming from. And let me assure you, even at a max bid, FL, TX, TN, NC, SC are insanely better than the exit states. Just talking from experience and what I hear from everyone leaving the Bay area, and Tri-State area. Politica and taxes are a completely fixable thing, if you actually want to fix them. Poop on the streets of SF, needles all over LA, crime in NYC. Who the hell wouldn't give a limb to leave those holes? You need to do more than just look at charts young fella, or you will be the one getting run over by your own advice. Yes buying high is a bad idea, but not if you are buying a seat on a life boat on the Titanic.
One strange thing I have noticed is when home prices started to shoot up during COVID I started seeing more houses in wrong categories like if there is a lack of supply they are saying here, look at these, even though I did not search for them. One example is that Mobile homes started showing as built on site when filtered. Sure, it is their platform and website but man does that drive me crazy.
Thanks for the comment/observation! Stuff like that happening is typical of bubble-like behavior!
Great video again! Would building a custom home on your own land (Tucson) be a bad idea right now? Are prices for custom homes following the same trends as resale homes? Thanks for the helpful data driven video!
Nick you are a good man! Thanks for all of your hard work, invaluable data and exposing these RE agents to be the lying weasels they are, especially here in the Atlanta area....
You got that right! iv'e Been in North Atlanta 30 years and it sucks here now with all the nut cases moving here and the wannabe landlords/agents are jerks..I want to see the look on their faces when all hell breaks loose
Looking forward to it!! Hopefully you will address South Florida and Miami….
I do talk about Florida more generally in this video! Excited for you to see it!
Ppl from all over Europe buying in Miami , he can’t read Miami no matter what , also half ny moved in .
@@996turbo agreed! Miami is the hot spot to be at!
@@ReventureConsulting I’m sorry, which video exactly? Also, do you have any recent video on Miami and/or Southern Florida?? I have a brother who is a CPA in Miami as well as others in real estate and finance who think Miami is not going to experience a downturn….
I'm in Atlanta. A community I planned on moving in just went from $250,000 to $355,912.. just in the last 6 months...I am heartbroken.
Very siloed data analysis. Doesn’t take into consideration of corporate migration and booming tech/healthcare in Austin and Raleigh…. Bringing in high income earners from high taxed states
Agreed, plus vast generalizations about the perspectives of real estate professional. A great real estate agent or investor will tell you there’s more to investing than the current price. Take into account extremely low interest rates, hyper inflation, and whether a property cash flows. I think your prospective is interesting but has a slightly narrow lens. Not everyone is lying. I tell my clients I can’t predict the future. We can only show clients historical data and where we are right now. Neither you or anyone else can predict anything beyond that with any certainty.
That was my initial response. It's not necc that PEOPLE are moving that's fueling the growth but the fact that companies are. Actual, live bodies, might follow much later.
You didn't mislead me because the map said Cali population is 30 Million . I know that California's population is about 40 Mil . Great video
So freaking ready for this crash.
I want to be able to afford the American dream.
funny
Just be the last one out the door in California 😂.
Thank you so much! I've been wanting to move out of Philadelphia to Raleigh for a little while now. I have some challenges as I am disabled from a stroke & can no longer drive so I need to be near some form of public transportation. My house is also in need of work so I have decided to just sell it for cash. And as i have gotten the best offer to sell my house in Philly, the prices of the homes in Raleigh make it almost impossible for me to make this move right now. I hope I am making the right decision to wait a little while, as i really don't have many other options. I even thought of selling & taking an apartment in Raleigh, but the rent in both Philly & Raleigh are outrageous & I just can't justify paying double my mortgage. Philadelphia has gotten really bad & dangerous & out of control & I want to live somewhere nice for the rest of my days. Like I said, I hope I'm making the right decision & make it to my little slice of happy b4 I run out of days! Lol! If anyone has any other suggestions of where is a good place to move that does have access to public transportation, I'd love to hear them!
Thank you again for all of this eye opening information!
SUBSCRIBED!
The bubble is bursting now. Acupuncture will help you recover from that stroke. The sooner you go the better.
@@CroisMoi
Thank you so much!
Migration points are interesting but is it the complete picture? Like the impact of decreased interest rates, lowering of supply by corporate investment, and increasing rates of renting. Guess you can throw in government intervention. Millennials also learned from the previous housing crash choosing to accumulate wealth before jumping to ownership, plus the backstop of people who had to rebuild wealth after losing their homes during the last crash.
I moved to Southwest FL 4 years ago. The amount of listings inventory from then to now is down 60% if the property for sale is in a desirable area it has mass amounts of multiple offers in one day. Nothing is for sale im my neighborhood currently. 64% of houses in my county are bought in cash. It is driving up prices since they offer whatever it takes to purchase the property. Most people used to buy 2nd homes here but it is now families moving in. 2000 new kids enter the county school system every year. They build new schools to handle the increases. In my area its as hot of a market as realtors say.
Love the content , living in Australia ATM but moving to Reno NV in November. Very interested in the the Reno NV area market.
Please stay in Australia. There is nothing but stress here. Grass is not as green here as it is in Australia. Just my two cents.
He did a video on Las Vegas about 3 weeks ago where he also addresses the Reno market. If you’re looking for a real estate agent, Cameron Hulsey with Stitser Properties may be able to help you. He grew up in Reno along with the Stitser family and mine and so knows the area well.
Thank you for the comment, Graham! As Andrea said above I talked about Reno in a video on Vegas that dropped several weeks back.
Out of curiosity - what is prompting the move from Australia to US?
Its so over priced
Agree 100%, stay in Australia, you will have easier less stressful life. I love Australia, been there multiple times and have Aussie friends.
All I can say is that for a market that isn't supposed to crash, this OKC real estate market is still on fire. Every home I have tried to buy is has 10+ offers over asking price and even at $10K over with appraisal gap guarantees, I haven't been able to get one yet. It is ridiculous.
I love your videos. You need to take into account family size in Utah. It’s much larger than other states. Kids stay and buy homes.
I totally agree, living here in DFW, it's grown sooooo much in 30 years. And Zillow estimate is over by 50 to 60k. That said, we are up double due to local level investment not noted in this video.
When you showed the yearly trend of migration you didn’t include the 2021 data seems like that would be insane with Florida alone having 600,000 people moving.
I love your videos and the data that you provide; please keep it up.
Gotta love data! Thank you, Nick, for bringing the "truth" to our viewscreen.
People forget decades ago, when software companies where moving to Austin, from Cali and Northeast, massive real estate boom, then massive dump, nothing changes, its cycles baby!
Q. In some of those cities where housing permits are down, is that do to higher taxes and building regulations that has turned investors and builders off?
Really helpful information. This channel provides the most honest info on real estate in the US!
Thank you so much! Appreciate the comment!
100% agree! I've been saying this all year! It's market manipulation to keep people buying over-priced real estate. You'll never hear RE professionals tell you it's a bad time to buy. Of course not! RE sales is their livelihood. Plus, higher prices also means higher commissions. Helping to manipulate the RE market by creating FOMO is the media because who do they always go to for their stories and headlines? RE firms!
I, myself, have been wanting to buy. But, I have known this market is not sustainable and prices are absolutely going to drop in the near future. Don't get caught underwater in a mortgage.
SUCH GREAT CONTENT.YOUR VIDEOS MADE ME MAKE MY FINAL DECISION ON WAITING TO BUY MORE HOUSES.
Who would move to Seattle.. 300 more cops quit .. I don’t blame them🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Seattle and all over the area has become a cesspool. Multiple shootings and murders every single day. Stay far, far away from here if you value your belongings and your life.
Liberals from Hollywood
@@Lexxie45 not sure where you are you're getting the news from. Most of the Midwest states like Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, etc. are in the top 10 list of worst states for violent crimes. Washington is not even close. Pls check your facts. Thanks
Fake news.. 🇺🇲
@@ppraish I live here, trust me I know what I'm talking about. I personally experienced property crimes , auto theft, auto break ins and I live in a relatively safe area. It's not any more. Violent crimes, including murders are up in the last 2 years. One happened just a block from my house. It's an every day occurrence now. My facts are accurate. Thank you.
New Jersey has hit an all time high in housing prices...and in recent weeks there has been many listing with price drops. Homes that need a total facelift are demanding top price. NO THANKS!!! Those sellers can keep their deteriorated garbage cans!
Thanks for the comment, Frank! I've noticed price drops as well.
The underlying drivers are cost of living reflected primarily in real estate and taxes. People are moving out of Blue states and into Red states which have more business-friendly environments.
Thanks for being honest. When its all said and done billions of dollars will be lost by unsuspecting buyers. So sad. As the decline in prices becomes more clear. I think we will see homeowners "panic listing" their homes and the crash will begin.
Thanks for the comment, Greg! I totally agree. The number of 2nd home purchases spiked by 100% in the first 12 months of the pandemic.