$369,000 for a 2,500 SF house. Not even sure that's at replacement cost. Builders are starting to morph into a "2006-07" mode where they are still building a ton of homes despite huge headwinds in the market. Giving a 4.7% mortgage rate is equivalent to doing an additional $30-40k price cut. Scary prospect for home values in area where the builders are active. They hold pricing power. And they will push the market down. Access the data for your ZIP code on Reventure App: www.reventure.app
Good luck to anyone who buys one of these new build homes.. They are so poorly built. They throw them up like robots using the cheapest materials. There is no craftsmanship or pride. They are built to break. I am living in a "new build" from the 2006 housing boom, and it was so cheaply done, everything is uneven, the roof uses press wood instead of plywood, cheap windows, and the drywall job was so poorly done, not to mention the huge cracks in the foundation from not waiting the 30 days for the cement to cure, so I can't imagine how bad today's new builds are. Good luck to anyone who buys that crap.
People are waiting because they have no clue what the new administration is going to do. But from the looks of it, he wants to use more debt to pump endless amounts of money into the economy. It could potentially be worse then 2008 when the "sugar rush" is done by the end of his 4 year term.
Many people are feeling uncertain about what the new administration's plans will be. It seems like there might be a focus on increasing debt to inject more money into the economy. This could lead to challenges down the line, possibly even worse than what we saw in 2008 once any temporary boosts wear off by the end of the term.
It’s kind of unsettling. Back then, the housing market crash dragged down the entire economy. It makes you wonder if we’re heading into something similar
It does feel a bit like déjà vu, doesn’t it? Rising interest rates, high inflation, and now this spike in unsold homes. The signs are eerily familiar. I’m starting to wonder what this means for the broader market
I’ve been thinking the same thing. The housing market is such a huge part of the economy. When it struggles, it tends to ripple through everything. But I’m not sure if we’re looking at a full on repeat of 2008 or if this is just a temporary bump.
It’s hard to say. I mean, back in 2008, so many people were caught off guard. and the housing crash hit everyone from homeowners to investors. I don’t want to make the same mistake of not being prepared if things go south again.
Yeah, that’s the thing. It’s tough to know what’s next. Do you stay invested, move to cash, or maybe look for other opportunities? It’s not like 2008, but it’s definitely got people nervous about what’s coming
That’s exactly why having a financial advisor or even a CFA can make such a difference right now. They can help you figure out the best course of action based on your personal situation. I remember during the last downturn, I reached out to a CFA, and it was probably the best decision I made
I want to buy a house in Tampa, but I’m not paying $350K for a crappy new house made as cheaply as possible, with a HOA, and my neighbors 10 feet away on either side
First mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were common when I bought my first house to live in, which was in Miami in the early 1990s. People will have to come to terms with the fact that we may never get back to 3%. Home prices will have to drop if sellers are forced to sell, and appraisals will drop as a result. I'm very certain that I'm not the only one thinking this.
In fact, it will only grow worse. Affordable homes will soon become unaffordable. Therefore, if anyone wants to do something, I suggest doing it right away because tomorrow's costs will appear to be lower than they are today. I believe that frenzy brought on by excessive inflation will persist until the Fed tightens its regulations considerably further. The bandage cannot be torn off in the middle.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Annette Christine Conte ” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
I rented a brand New Three bedroom home in Cape Coral . Its built with the absolute cheapest materials I ever seen. Pretty much no trim on the inside. all of the outside lighting are plastic. the appliances are the cheapest on the market. Its a joke they want $365 K for this landfill .
@@JoshuaCyberNerd I'm also waiting, but presently am working on my DTI Ratio in preparation for the mortgage pre-qualification process. However, it'll take me 2 more years (late 2026) to be ready so I'm hoping it'll be a Buyers Market by then. -- BR
Impossible. You might get a tiny home at that price. Have you priced anything related to building lately? Products are still high and unfortunately, quality has declined.
I hope we all know that it doesn't matter who is in the 'top job' because this is a systemic problem -- greed. We have allowed many of our economic sectors, to take advantage of the American people. It's disgusting and frightening for the future of our country. My husband and I will be retiring in the next two years n another country. We are absolutely worried that SS! will no longer be funded. we'll have to rely on his pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific Investment account with Stephanie Janis Stiefel my FA. Our national debt is bloating and expanding every month. Our government needs to get spending under control and cut the federal budget.
I know this lady you just mentioned. Stephanie Janis Stiefel is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as an employee of neuberger berman; a renowned investor she is. Stephanie Janis Stiefel has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.
I’m planning on moving to Thailand in the next 5 years if trump’s government doesn’t do anything with the high prices of groceries and taxes What about you??
I went from no money to Invest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Stephanie Janis Stiefel. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
These skeletons new builds here in Texas survived the winds of hurricane beryl lol I was actually surprised. I think the construction is crap when you have incompetent workers.
Older houses will have many needs as they approach 30-40 years. Someone is going to make trillions on shorting whole sector. Prices just not sustainable with 2026 unemployment a major issue. No job no home. Simple. 2026 will hit 7% unemployment being extremely conservative with outlook.
As for me, the reason why I haven’t made a purchase is because the builders have pissed me off over the past three years with the price gouging. I’ve met with multiple Home Builders and they all tried to add another $30-$55,000 to the price just because the homes were in demand, citing Lot premiums. I’m in Northern Virginia. so I’m going to stall them out until they’re almost broke.
I'm in Northern VA too. The prices here are sky high for even an older POS that needs rehab. I'm looking to other areas further from the Cesspool Bubble.
Then, play the same game. Pit them against each other, bringing the price down some with every negotiation. Just like at a car lot. "...So and So said they'd sell me the (add car) for 800.00 cheaper. What can you do for me"?
North Georgia here. The cheapest in a 3 county area is 350k, and that is for houses that are going to need rehab. We have zero debt, no kids, and 2 full-time salaries. We can't afford 350k. It's so ridiculous.
Here in Oregon the cheapest around is about 475k. Those are tiny homes on tiny lots. 1500 sq ft on a (large) 7000 sq ft lot is 550k Granted wages are higher here but even well over median household income isn't enough to buy.
Yep…I was in Sandy Springs . I moved back to my small hometown. Townhomes that I wanted across the street from my apartment went up to almost 400k when they were under 200k for years. New company that bought my complex was trash. Ridiculous waiting lists to move anywhere close to work. And traffic…😪
Then, it's time to do what people did 100 years ago. Find a lot, build it yourself. I guarantee that it's possible - millions of people did it back then with very basic technology. $350K if you DIY is a world of difference in quality and features vs this tract-home ticky-tacky. AND, no HOA. In the end, this is a repeat of long long ago. People can't afford to live in the major cities, so they move outwards, find a piece of land, and build on it.
Shocking that people don’t want to pay 350-400,000k for houses made of plywood and painted on brick, where half the square footage is a garage, and it comes with 2 hours of commuting a day.
Garage square footage doesn’t count as living heated square footage which is the real square footage of a home. Every market is local and they look at what type of square footage they want to look at, but generally speaking when referring to square footage of a home it is only referred to as heated, living square footage your shed your garage, your porch, your attic or your basement do not count. Sometimes you can make a finished basement count, but usually it doesn’t.
@@Nick-ue7iw This sounds like people who have too much stuff. Most garages end up as depositories for things people acquire and then never use. I know that’s the American way, but folks did fine with homes built in the 1950s and 60s without the incessant consumerist craving for new things.
Before the '08 crash there used to be small builders building small communities. The big guys like Lennar and DRHorton have pushed them out of business. You do not see any small builders anymore. Meritage? tbh, I could care less if the top builders in America lose money. They've been reaming home buyers who don't know any better.
I’ve seen a few new builders in the Northern California area. They are still selling. Prices for sure are not going up. The tell tale sighn the market will go bust is when summer 2025 comes and homes are not moving as fast as they were last year. Builders need rates to drop by summertime to get buyers in homes when kids are out of school, and they can buy rates down to mid to low 4s. If then homes done sale prices will have to come down up to 10%.
@@jamesclark7316 Yet, the smart person has them build a custom home like it was done for hundreds of years. Because you might get a smaller home, but it'll be built better and actually fit your SUV inside the garage. Then add an addition later on. Same as everyone did back then, as well.
I'm in Lebanon in a Lennar neighborhood and its all starting to catch up to all the investors who bought up houses and tried to turn around and rent them. The builder is still building, people who bought 3 years ago and now want to sell are competing with the builder. Investors thought they could buy up all the houses and control the "supply" meaning whatever demand existed would have to just take whatever ridiculous rental prices they threw out there. Well now my subdivision has vacant rental homes for over $2.1k and nobody is trying at all to move in as a renter. Probably cant even afford to. That's what happens when greedy investors try to wring a dry towel. They are trying to squeeze every penny out of people and now the people have nothing left to afford the ridiculous rent.
I warned my clients about values dropping but they decided they still wanted to buy here in Phoenix. Got them a new build from DR Horton. Price was $500,000 beginning of the year, they got it for $436,000. DR Horton bought the rate down to 4% for entire 30 years (cost about $50,000) paid them $22,000 in closing costs and paid me 3% commission. They threw in washer, dryer and full backyard landscaping valued at $15,000.
IMO, the issue isn't the home values or inventory, but that the non-institutional buyers are broke. My power bill went from $120 a month to $280 a month in three years, my auto insurance went from $160 a month to $280, and on and on. We're all being sucked dry and can't save enough. i.e. - 3-4 years ago, saving 2K a month was possible, meaning you have a down payment in about two years. Now, that same down payment, due to higher prices as well, is 6-7 years.
@@Ekam-Sat I'd like to add that the reason this matters so much is that institutional investors just pay cash and therefore avoid interest entirely. To them, the down payment isn't a factor, so it's the banks that are the real issue in their refusal to budge one mm off of that 20% down payment requirement. Unless you are wealthy enough to essentially not need the loan, of course.
We are in the worst economy in 40 years. We have been on life support and they are planning to crash it under Trump. Florida faces a HUGE problem, not just with price of home, but INSURANCE !!! Its outragious now, and is a massive buyer deterent.
yet you still have stupid boomers like my parents who think they are going to sell their house for way, way, way more than it cost them so they can buy a house in florida and retire. Florida is the worst state for anyone to retire with all the damn evacuations and hurricanes. Why buy a house, when you can't get insurance. Makes no sense to me.
"They are planning to crash it under Trump " 🙄 last time he inherited a good economy and too credit for it. Passed down a bad economy, you all blame Biden. Now he is getting an economy on life support and it's the dems fault? Lol.. smh..
You brought a very good point, Nick, what is the potential of these new homes in next 2-3-5 years, not even saying 10-20. That was the reason we decided not to buy, the offer was good, rate buy down, customizations.. BUT, they will continue to build devaluing it. Lots are small, materials and architecture - crap, at this point it seems more like a slavery. Please, make your math before you buy. Closing costs, interest vs equity in first 5 years, resale value in next 5 years.
Guys I bought a lennar home about 6 months ago for 187k in San Antonio. It's 3 bed 2 bath, 1260 sq feet. Do you think that I got cooked? My wife and I really enjoy living here and just FYI the main reason we bough was because it was going to be about 400$ a month cheaper than comparable rent in our area as well as the fact that the home purchase allowed us to qualify for in state tuition saving us about 12k a year on our loans over the next 4 years.
186k in San Antonio is actually pretty good all things considered. Just be emotionally prepared for a) it not being your forever home and b) the upkeep may strike back with a vengeance. Consider doing some preventative maintenance on appliances, walls, etc.
You will. I saw this in 2008-2010. $350 houses will be $100-150 like they were in 2010. Got my 1971 4 bedroom house on the water with a pool here in sw florida for $102 in 2015. It was a fixer upper but only cosmetic issues. Deals will be everywhere. Wait for a good one. Look at it three times - you’ll find all the problems the second and third view.
@@Eman1900Othere are several websites dedicated to showing the shoddy craftsmanship that goes on in these houses. These are starter homes that the initial buyers are looking to sell in 5-10 years. So there’s no incentive for Lennar or Dr Horton to build long lasting homes (until they get the terrible reputation they have today) These massive national builders contract the lowest bidder and set aside 400 million a year in anticipated lawsuits. Allegedly, insiders say their targeted lifespan for the houses are only 20 years.
I continue to see houses going up for sale in TX that were purchased just a few years ago. Also, I've been seeing a lot of townhouses sitting on the market for a very long time, especially when the builder doesn't lower the asking prices.
We just bought a 1550 square foot Lennar Home 3 bedroom 2 bath in Kyle Texas for $219,000 with a 4.25% which was a $265K home 😮 it was just too good to pass up 😎
Been watching this for a couple years living in SWFL and visiting Central FL (Davenport). Insane amount of new housing everywhere and mostly townhomes. The news single family communities are so claustrophobic
All the prices need to come way down. They've bene overinflated for the past 4 years. I've commented it before, places have quadrupled in price where I live. There is no reason a 5 bedroom home is $1.3 million and that's literally your own price range. It's $600k for a 2 bedroom. These prices are beyond nuts. Neither place I'm thinking about is anything special. If I was actually going to spend over a million, that home doesn't even meet my min requirements fort he kitchen alone.
We have been told this same thing for the last year. I have not seen a "crash" yet. I have seen price reductions for owners wanting to sell their homes but I have yet to see a "crash", and those buy downs don't usually last for long. I live in north Ga.
@ at least 5 for sure. You gotta admit, it can’t go on like it is. There’s gotta be a correction. There always is. Patient is key. Prepare as best you can.
@@johnlopez4089 oh we are prepared, but I doubt it will ever effect the area we actually want/need to live in. It never really happens anymore for hcol areas.
Builders pick rural areas or remote areas outside of the city because they get the land cheap, and then they divide it and then they mark it up for Massive profit.
True, plus the cities are built out, so it forces builders to move on to rural areas which are no longer considered rural once the big builders arrive. Our county has exploded with new construction and commercial businesses.
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I located her through google, sent her an email, and scheduled a call; hopefully, she will reply because I want to start the new year off financially strong.
This is not an affordability issue. These types of neighborhoods are profoundly unpleasant to live in. They are far from good restaurants and entertainment. You are looking at bleak featureless landscape and at the mercy of your worst neighbors potpourri of pickup’s motorcycles, domestic squabbles, the unrelenting banging of mindless cornhole and ping pong games, and noisy dogs. If you have lived in one of those places you will never do it again. They are visual and acoustical torture chambers.
I pay $1500/month for a studio in a colorado ski town. Spendy and small, but its quiet and i ride my bike or take the free bus. In the meantime I'm living like a monk and saving. The crash is coming for the simple reason that the whole country is broke.
I can verify boots on the ground that this is happening in places like Fort Myers and Punta Gorda. I cannot believe how much building there's going on and they don't put available signs in front of most of the homes so it looks like they could possibly be sold when they are actually not. I haven't seen this much new build inventory in over a decade. The real estate agents are still saying the market is still great and you better buy now before the price goes up. Yet they're giving away free pools, 4.5% interest, other free upgrades, and closing costs. I've never seen so many empty demo offices. 3 years ago there was a line going out to the front. I don't feel sorry for any of them. I have also noted what you said here, local buyers are trying to sell their two or three-year-old home even for what they paid just to get out of it, and they can't because you can get a brand new one for less. And how can you compete with the builder mortgage buydowns? It's impossible.
Also in Fort Myers (Lee County) and you are spot on my friend. Most the Lennar and DR Horton communities where there are like 5 or so homes left to sell have been sitting for months. Check out Pratts Preserve off Six Mile Cypress and Crystal Dr. Crash or not, we’ll see, however, something is happening and happening fast.
I'm favoured only God knows how much I praise Him, $230k every 4weeks! I now have a big mansion and can now afford anything and also support God’s work and the church.
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!
I remember giving her my first saved up $20000 and she opened a brokerage account with it for me, it turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to me.
You have to be insane to buy in Florida between insane HOA,s can’t get affordable insurance and having to deal with hurricanes , floods , sinkholes ,tornados , not to mention the bugs and killer humidity..On top of that new homes are built like cheap crap even it was at zero interest aren’t worth buying .. Better off in Arizona or Nevada, they may not have an ocean but have plenty of beach .
Come to Colorado all builders fell for the soft landing and the specs are incredible on every site. I have been framing and welding houses for 26 years here and I never have seen so much inventory and we weld for lennar and they have the most but still are digging holes
@@clinetalboColorado ain’t it, my friend. Especially the springs. It hails like no tomorrow in the summer time and it’s going to do significant damage to your home and cars. Don’t listen to this man, he’s trying to get a quick sale.
Thanks for your comment Jeff...I have been wondering about Colorado since they have had huge price increases in the last few years. I spent some time in Chaffee County and a local told me (about a year ago) that the County had put a moratorium on issuing new building permits bc the demand for new houses was so great and they could not keep up....or maybe they were trying to slow down the growth?...I don't know what's going now...
@ you’re welcome, my opinion is Colorado has no manufacturing and is a warehouse and trucking state so construction is the main employment both residential and commercial so the powers that be are manipulating the numbers to keep this economy going but it think that has finally hit a brick wall, I have a KB project out by DIA and they are now filling in the holes they dug for foundations. Bless you
It’s not just the localization, it’s about the type of houses selling. If luxury homes are selling at huge discounts ($ 1 million dollar home selling for 600K) and entry level homes aren’t selling, then the average housing price would appear to go up because the average price of mostly luxury homes is representing the entire market.
Me too... as long as it's accompanied by a 50% price drop in everything else related to home construction and renovation including building materials, tools, energy, appliances, tradespeople, etc.
I don't recall housing prices ever dropping 50%, or any other thing dropping in price. Our population increased by 12+ million illegals over the last 4 years. My state doesn't even have that many people. They gotta live somewhere.
SMH. This is exactly what happened in Northern Virginia just outside of the DC area in the 90s - people could not sell their homes due to the building cutting prices on the new homes in the same neighborhood. Took years for some home owners to be able to sell unless they took huge losses. We never learn.
"I don't know how home builders are even making money on these houses..." Tell me you know nothing about home builders without telling me you know nothing about home builders. Mark up on a track home is as high as 300% (3x) over base material cost. Lower finance rate costs the builder absolutely nothing. I get the shock and awe tactic for your audience, but there is no reason to act surprised about builders doing precisely what builders do and a business model that is at least 50 years old.
Are you saying builders add a 300% markup on the materials then add labor and other costs on top... or are you saying the all-in, final cost of a tract home is equivalent to 300% of the base materials?
@@eddiemalvin Key word was "as high". Mark up depends on many factors, though minimum mark up is 200% of material and labor. Land usually ends up being 4x-10x. The typical $300k house costs less than $150k to build. Depending on those "upgrades", many (most) of your more expensive homes have a larger mark up. The primary misconception is the fact that "the public" uses "retail pricing" to figure out profit margins, the reality is that track home builders pay wholesale rates. Concrete for example, the public rate might be $10+/sqft for slabs, I'll pay $5. Nationwide builders buy direct from wood sources, I can't touch their pricing but I'll pay less than half of what you see in Home Depot. So yes, take your Lennar/DrHorton/Meritage/etc track home....a $300k list price home cost them about $135k to build.
@@brianmatthews4149 Permits cost "nothing", they are laughable. Contractors can quote whatever they want and $165 is low., their cost is still about half that though.
@@eddiemalvin The largest companies save most of their money by hiring "people with questionable work permits". This actually made national news when they complained in Texas that most of their workforce would disappear if Trump went through with the planned deportations. The average "starter" home really does cost them less than 100K to build. They build fast, cheap, and cut every corner that they can.
The situation of rd horton is not surprising: it's been years people have been complaining about the tofu houses that they build. Now, the data has pilled up, it became so in your face that now people are avoiding the purchase of these cardboard boxes. Not surprising at all.
This happened in Sarasota back in 2006-2007. We were able to get out in the middle of the crash, so it had already peaked, and was on the way back down. We had two contracts that fell apart, within 2 months, but the third one held. We paid off a $104,000 mortgage. We paid cash in north Ga. for double the size we sold, and the house we bought was only 8 yrs old. Not to brag, cuz we were just in the right place, at the right time, and I thank God for that!
Bought a new build in california in 2021. They bring in the pre built trusses and gave me a stone roof which was nice. But they skimp on the exterior sheathing and do not cover all the house in plywood. Half of my garage is literally studs with insulating foam and chicken wire with painted stucco. Sure, it may "Pass code" but it still looks really weird and cheap.
Today, I found out why the wage and median housing price in CA gaps so much. How do you pay for 900k median home price when median household income is 90k? My sister who's a realtor out in CA told me that now a lot of the buyers use their stock portfolio to qualify and pay for the house. The stock bubble is what's driving the housing price. One good correction and the housing market is on verge of collapsing.
I put on a huge short position against $XHB and $BX six months ago and have had my a$$ handed to me. I don't believe any kind of downturn is happening.
Sober up, there's never gonna be another 2008. We are 5.6 million homes. Negative versus supply demand. Even if a handful of builders have to cut prices it won't put a dent in the 5.5 million short.
2008 was caused due to over leveraged consumers, not an over supply of housing. Over supply just means prices will go down, which is good for most people.
@@Jonathaneve5 Fair enough. I think today is more of a shortage of affordable housing. People want to buy houses, but can't at these prices. Unlike in 2008, prices plummeted and people weren't buying even $100k houses. I just don't think it's the exact same. Perhaps a few more years to go.
Ugh. 🙄 God has nothing to do with your good luck. You're implying God doesn't love me and my family just because my husband got laid off in late 2018 and couldn't land a full-time job until after Covid settled down. That wasn't God, that was being left holding the bag in this ponzi scheme of an economy. Now we can't buy a house because they DOUBLED in price + interest rate DOUBLED during our time of hardship. So you're saying God hates us? 🤔 Think about that.
House prices r very high! I never experienced before. I bought 4 houses at past I sold 2 houses 2013 2015. I wish never sold my properties. Now is double price...
The building corporations had been making enormous profits on homes; now they are just making a semi-modest profit. I think one of the reasons folks moving into the Sun Belt areas had been overpaying is that they were used to high prices - but they in for a rude awakening when they see their housing values PLUNGE.
They won’t plunge, they purchased with cash from sales of their previous properties in California and New York. The people at the bottom of the chain will be forced into homelessness because they were ripped off because of market manipulation by companies like black rock, Berkshire Hathaway, etc., just look at the repo market of these private equity firms that were using real estate to stash cash.
Homes (2) to either side of me just sold at record prices (Monmouth county New Jersey) both very tired first time home buyer homes. Real estate is local. Somewhere in us prices going up others flat others going down. That’s normal. The high prices are not. Im old been in r/e game over 40 yes. As builder investor owner of many many homes. Every 10 yes r/e surprises me. That’s why I love it… Im not greedy so I don’t get slaughtered. I have been successful and remain unscathed.
Best Real Estate Channel on RUclips!!I’m a retired Real Estate Agent. I wish I had access to your channel before I retired. You should have a session on how to use your web site periodically. I’m sure once your viewers understand the full capabilities of your site they would foolish not to subscribe Thanks
I am 53 and retired at 50. 1 thing I did do to retire early was to get out of the 401K and IRA programs. Bought rental real-estate and I am now a Limited Partner in about 1500+ units from collabrative efforts in the fund my estate planner has me invested in. I do not work.
I only contribute 5% to get full company match, that’s it. The 401K plan is designed for you to work until you are about dead. Also, the government does not have their hands on it yet either.
My wife and I live off of our 401K. We don't work. I recommend highly to everyone to build your 401K or Roth IRA's as an alternate revenue stream in retirement to your Social Security. An observation on 401K's is when it gets over 300K it starts to accelerate. When you get over 500K it can really accelerate as the stock market grows.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Stacy Lynn Staples who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
At the end of 2007, I bought a Lennar home in a new development. I knew prices were correcting and negotiated what I thought was a good deal. Never would have expected what would have happened in 2008-09. There were about 7 families moved into the neighborhood, then everything hit full stop. It was a ghost town for 2 years. Just empty lots and some partially built homes. In 2010, they started building again. Slowly. Much more scaled down models in terms of size and finishes. Finished the ~250 homes around 2013-14. They finally built the community pool & community clubhouse at the end of 2014. It was a wild ride. And those videos of half built communities brings back some memories.
The Prime Rate has absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rates. They are completely isolated markets. If you don’t know that, everything that you say is worthless.
What amazes me is people have been talking about a bubble burst and recession for last 2.5 years... I've seen all the graphs and yes I agree its poised for things to take a dump. But could be 2025 or beyond. I'd rather it hit now as I'll be ready to retire in 5 years and want the economy to be strong when I do.
Your videos are very informative. Been watching them for a while. Good work. I was thinking of something. I wonder if the people that are going to be buying houses next year 2025 can also negotiate not being a part of HOA’s because of the headache that HOA’s have become.That’s what I would be trying to negotiate for also, at this moment in time that they’re a little more desperate to sell.
There are some communities where being a member of the HOA is optional, but otherwise you must be a member. HOA rules and regulations trump the local rules if they are stricter, at least here in Georgia.
Here in So Cal, seeing builders offering 4.99 fixed for 30, but even with the concession the payment is just so much higher than renting the equivalent, it just makes no sense. Factor in lost interest on down payment, it's even worse. Buy vs rent so out of whack. I will pay a premium to own, but not 2x.
There’s no pile ups of inventory. Inventory is still super low. Prices are still going up. Pressure upwards for a melt up is what we are facing, this guy has been calling for a crash since what? 2021? Coming into 2025 and still nothing.
@ only if you can afford said home. Don’t become house broke tryin to buy more than you can afford. Affordability is in the shitter and it’s all doubled to tripled for very little reason other than just cuz. So don’t fall into that pit trap of house broke.
One thing I didn’t see in the video was that some builders have moved to a spec strategy due to supply chain issues as well as available trades. A friend bought a new build at dirt and was supposed to be finished in 7 months, but due to material shortages, the build took 12 months, completely unacceptable. Buyers are frustrated, the builder is frustrated, so they moved to specs and having homes available. It’s a gamble.
$369,000 for a 2,500 SF house. Not even sure that's at replacement cost.
Builders are starting to morph into a "2006-07" mode where they are still building a ton of homes despite huge headwinds in the market. Giving a 4.7% mortgage rate is equivalent to doing an additional $30-40k price cut.
Scary prospect for home values in area where the builders are active. They hold pricing power. And they will push the market down. Access the data for your ZIP code on Reventure App: www.reventure.app
Good luck to anyone who buys one of these new build homes.. They are so poorly built. They throw them up like robots using the cheapest materials. There is no craftsmanship or pride. They are built to break.
I am living in a "new build" from the 2006 housing boom, and it was so cheaply done, everything is uneven, the roof uses press wood instead of plywood, cheap windows, and the drywall job was so poorly done, not to mention the huge cracks in the foundation from not waiting the 30 days for the cement to cure, so I can't imagine how bad today's new builds are. Good luck to anyone who buys that crap.
People are waiting because they have no clue what the new administration is going to do. But from the looks of it, he wants to use more debt to pump endless amounts of money into the economy. It could potentially be worse then 2008 when the "sugar rush" is done by the end of his 4 year term.
Many people are feeling uncertain about what the new administration's plans will be.
It seems like there might be a focus on increasing debt to inject more money into the economy.
This could lead to challenges down the line, possibly even worse than what we saw in 2008 once any temporary boosts wear off by the end of the term.
@@lnicole2504 LOL what state you live in that allows press wood for the roof?
I disagree. Perry Homes, Highland Homes, David Weekly etc. here in TX are built very well.
It’s kind of unsettling. Back then, the housing market crash dragged down the entire economy. It makes you wonder if we’re heading into something similar
It does feel a bit like déjà vu, doesn’t it? Rising interest rates, high inflation, and now this spike in unsold homes. The signs are eerily familiar. I’m starting to wonder what this means for the broader market
I’ve been thinking the same thing. The housing market is such a huge part of the economy. When it struggles, it tends to ripple through everything. But I’m not sure if we’re looking at a full on repeat of 2008 or if this is just a temporary bump.
It’s hard to say. I mean, back in 2008, so many people were caught off guard. and the housing crash hit everyone from homeowners to investors. I don’t want to make the same mistake of not being prepared if things go south again.
Yeah, that’s the thing. It’s tough to know what’s next. Do you stay invested, move to cash, or maybe look for other opportunities? It’s not like 2008, but it’s definitely got people nervous about what’s coming
That’s exactly why having a financial advisor or even a CFA can make such a difference right now. They can help you figure out the best course of action based on your personal situation. I remember during the last downturn, I reached out to a CFA, and it was probably the best decision I made
I want to buy a house in Tampa, but I’m not paying $350K for a crappy new house made as cheaply as possible, with a HOA, and my neighbors 10 feet away on either side
Same boat here. I’ll be moving to Tampa in 3-4months and everything appears to be Lennar and DR Horton cheap homes with crazy HOA fees 😭
My words exactly 💯
Look for a nice pre owned home! You get more for your money and you can see how well it has held up. My 24 year old house is beautiful! 🎉
Does “pre-owned” include the soon to be abandoned tract home currently occupied by future defaulters?
Was thinking THE EXACT SAME THING. It looks more like a prison than a neighborhood.
First mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were common when I bought my first house to live in, which was in Miami in the early 1990s. People will have to come to terms with the fact that we may never get back to 3%. Home prices will have to drop if sellers are forced to sell, and appraisals will drop as a result. I'm very certain that I'm not the only one thinking this.
In fact, it will only grow worse. Affordable homes will soon become unaffordable. Therefore, if anyone wants to do something, I suggest doing it right away because tomorrow's costs will appear to be lower than they are today. I believe that frenzy brought on by excessive inflation will persist until the Fed tightens its regulations considerably further. The bandage cannot be torn off in the middle.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Annette Christine Conte ” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
I rented a brand New Three bedroom home in Cape Coral . Its built with the absolute cheapest materials I ever seen. Pretty much no trim on the inside. all of the outside lighting are plastic. the appliances are the cheapest on the market. Its a joke they want $365 K for this landfill .
In a city that's a canal, it seems pretty risky anything in the Cape.
Lehigh by the Sea.
Sounds like the house you own.
In a number of years it will appreciated in value more.
Your part of the problem, ko o e in their right mind rents a 300k+ home.
One time I thought about visisting Florida, oh wait, no I didn't.
Lennar and DR Horton: people are starting to steer clear of these pieces of crap. Lamborghini prices for a Yugo home.
Yugo is putting it nice. It’s closer to Lada…😂
The good news is them flooding the market with their cheap houses, will end up crashing the market completely and you'll get nicer homes for less too.
@@briankier2189 Yeah I know but Lada never made it to the US. Only saw them in Panama back in the 90s of all places
And CNBC treats these builders like Gods.
Love it!
Let them go under. Consumers never learn the power they have by just delaying buying for as little as 3 months. Homes will be in the 150's.
That what I said. Do not buy there overpriced cheaply built homes.
Can't wait for prices to drop like hot cakes
I completely agree. I'm wanting to buy a house but I'm going to be patient until after the correction when prices and rates are down.
@@JoshuaCyberNerd I'm also waiting, but presently am working on my DTI Ratio in preparation for the mortgage pre-qualification process. However, it'll take me 2 more years (late 2026) to be ready so I'm hoping it'll be a Buyers Market by then.
-- BR
Impossible. You might get a tiny home at that price. Have you priced anything related to building lately? Products are still high and unfortunately, quality has declined.
I hope we all know that it doesn't matter who is in the 'top job' because this is a systemic problem -- greed. We have allowed many of our economic sectors, to take advantage of the American people. It's disgusting and frightening for the future of our country. My husband and I will be retiring in the next two years n another country. We are absolutely worried that SS! will no longer be funded. we'll have to rely on his pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific Investment account with Stephanie Janis Stiefel my FA. Our national debt is bloating and expanding every month. Our government needs to get spending under control and cut the federal budget.
I know this lady you just mentioned. Stephanie Janis Stiefel is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as an employee of neuberger berman; a renowned investor she is. Stephanie Janis Stiefel has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.
I’m planning on moving to Thailand in the next 5 years if trump’s government doesn’t do anything with the high prices of groceries and taxes
What about you??
I went from no money to Invest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Stephanie Janis Stiefel. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
Please stop gentrifying countries
How can i reach Stephanie if you don't mind me asking?
Heard she’s an IA.
Materials and construction are also notoriously crap in a lot of these new builds
These skeletons new builds here in Texas survived the winds of hurricane beryl lol I was actually surprised. I think the construction is crap when you have incompetent workers.
Older houses will have many needs as they approach 30-40 years. Someone is going to make trillions on shorting whole sector. Prices just not sustainable with 2026 unemployment a major issue. No job no home. Simple. 2026 will hit 7% unemployment being extremely conservative with outlook.
Very true. Studs also spaced at 24in versus 18in.
@@KCDEFENZ theyre 16 inches
Aka JUNK
As for me, the reason why I haven’t made a purchase is because the builders have pissed me off over the past three years with the price gouging. I’ve met with multiple Home Builders and they all tried to add another $30-$55,000 to the price just because the homes were in demand, citing Lot premiums. I’m in Northern Virginia. so I’m going to stall them out until they’re almost broke.
Most of them will be fighting off bankruptcy in a couple of years.
I'm in Northern VA too. The prices here are sky high for even an older POS that needs rehab. I'm looking to other areas further from the Cesspool Bubble.
Then, play the same game. Pit them against each other, bringing the price down some with every negotiation. Just like at a car lot. "...So and So said they'd sell me the (add car) for 800.00 cheaper. What can you do for me"?
North Georgia here. The cheapest in a 3 county area is 350k, and that is for houses that are going to need rehab. We have zero debt, no kids, and 2 full-time salaries. We can't afford 350k. It's so ridiculous.
Yesss. And it's ruining the rent market as well.
Here in Oregon the cheapest around is about 475k. Those are tiny homes on tiny lots.
1500 sq ft on a (large) 7000 sq ft lot is 550k
Granted wages are higher here but even well over median household income isn't enough to buy.
Yep…I was in Sandy Springs . I moved back to my small hometown. Townhomes that I wanted across the street from my apartment went up to almost 400k when they were under 200k for years. New company that bought my complex was trash. Ridiculous waiting lists to move anywhere close to work. And traffic…😪
Then, it's time to do what people did 100 years ago. Find a lot, build it yourself. I guarantee that it's possible - millions of people did it back then with very basic technology. $350K if you DIY is a world of difference in quality and features vs this tract-home ticky-tacky. AND, no HOA.
In the end, this is a repeat of long long ago. People can't afford to live in the major cities, so they move outwards, find a piece of land, and build on it.
Do you not have a down payment? That should be affordable for two incomes.
Shocking that people don’t want to pay 350-400,000k for houses made of plywood and painted on brick, where half the square footage is a garage, and it comes with 2 hours of commuting a day.
Garage square footage doesn’t count as living heated square footage which is the real square footage of a home. Every market is local and they look at what type of square footage they want to look at, but generally speaking when referring to square footage of a home it is only referred to as heated, living square footage your shed your garage, your porch, your attic or your basement do not count. Sometimes you can make a finished basement count, but usually it doesn’t.
Everyone I know with a house wishes they had a bigger garage.
.....and the taxes are tripled....and insurance is either too expensive or impossible to get at all.
You’re generous with the garage comment. You can’t even fit two cars in a. Two car garage anymore
@@Nick-ue7iw This sounds like people who have too much stuff. Most garages end up as depositories for things people acquire and then never use. I know that’s the American way, but folks did fine with homes built in the 1950s and 60s without the incessant consumerist craving for new things.
Before the '08 crash there used to be small builders building small communities. The big guys like Lennar and DRHorton have pushed them out of business. You do not see any small builders anymore. Meritage? tbh, I could care less if the top builders in America lose money. They've been reaming home buyers who don't know any better.
Why won’t new companies start?
@@Cyrus992 they cant compete in buying the empty land vs the big guys and then they cant buy the materials in bulk as lennar does. etc.
I’ve seen a few new builders in the Northern California area. They are still selling. Prices for sure are not going up. The tell tale sighn the market will go bust is when summer 2025 comes and homes are not moving as fast as they were last year. Builders need rates to drop by summertime to get buyers in homes when kids are out of school, and they can buy rates down to mid to low 4s. If then homes done sale prices will have to come down up to 10%.
@ how so? Doesn’t really cost too much to build something
@@jamesclark7316 Yet, the smart person has them build a custom home like it was done for hundreds of years. Because you might get a smaller home, but it'll be built better and actually fit your SUV inside the garage. Then add an addition later on. Same as everyone did back then, as well.
I'm in Lebanon in a Lennar neighborhood and its all starting to catch up to all the investors who bought up houses and tried to turn around and rent them. The builder is still building, people who bought 3 years ago and now want to sell are competing with the builder. Investors thought they could buy up all the houses and control the "supply" meaning whatever demand existed would have to just take whatever ridiculous rental prices they threw out there. Well now my subdivision has vacant rental homes for over $2.1k and nobody is trying at all to move in as a renter. Probably cant even afford to. That's what happens when greedy investors try to wring a dry towel. They are trying to squeeze every penny out of people and now the people have nothing left to afford the ridiculous rent.
Sounds an AWFUL lot like the lebanon I live in.
FWIW, Every market is cyclical. Save as much as you can for the drop.
Solution to greed is the results of extortion.
Capone ends up dirt poor too.
Yep....I think this happened in vegas as well.
Lebanon, Indiana?
Be careful of that mess in Syria
Really need to watch out those. In 2006, when we saw $299K homes, we said thats great deal! end up that was the biggest trap.
Do you mean a better deal came up or the quality was bad?
Bought my home 2005 245 overprice 2008 price went down 165
@@Sruqi Before 2008 crash, my parents’ home was worth 650,000. After crash, neighborhood homes were selling for 150,000!!! In the Bay Area !!!!
@rbebeabucay9356 you can't buy no home in bay area for 150k now lol
@@stockmaster3777 Who knows? Future crash might be worse than 2008.
I warned my clients about values dropping but they decided they still wanted to buy here in Phoenix. Got them a new build from DR Horton. Price was $500,000 beginning of the year, they got it for $436,000. DR Horton bought the rate down to 4% for entire 30 years (cost about $50,000) paid them $22,000 in closing costs and paid me 3% commission. They threw in washer, dryer and full backyard landscaping valued at $15,000.
Not built to last
Yet the homeowners will pay $1100.00 per month in utilities.
So yeah what does that REALLY mean about state of economy?? They're desperate to sell
@@ArtLysense-m2mi dont pay that in California.
@@brianmatthews4149 In Arizona, you run your AC all the time when it's hot. It's expensive.
IMO, the issue isn't the home values or inventory, but that the non-institutional buyers are broke. My power bill went from $120 a month to $280 a month in three years, my auto insurance went from $160 a month to $280, and on and on. We're all being sucked dry and can't save enough. i.e. - 3-4 years ago, saving 2K a month was possible, meaning you have a down payment in about two years. Now, that same down payment, due to higher prices as well, is 6-7 years.
This! Insurance rates are going through the roof on everything.
@@Ekam-Sat I'd like to add that the reason this matters so much is that institutional investors just pay cash and therefore avoid interest entirely. To them, the down payment isn't a factor, so it's the banks that are the real issue in their refusal to budge one mm off of that 20% down payment requirement. Unless you are wealthy enough to essentially not need the loan, of course.
Past 4 years you keep saying the market will go down, but not in California, here is going up without stopping.
We are in the worst economy in 40 years. We have been on life support and they are planning to crash it under Trump. Florida faces a HUGE problem, not just with price of home, but INSURANCE !!! Its outragious now, and is a massive buyer deterent.
yet you still have stupid boomers like my parents who think they are going to sell their house for way, way, way more than it cost them so they can buy a house in florida and retire. Florida is the worst state for anyone to retire with all the damn evacuations and hurricanes. Why buy a house, when you can't get insurance. Makes no sense to me.
"They are planning to crash it under Trump " 🙄 last time he inherited a good economy and too credit for it. Passed down a bad economy, you all blame Biden. Now he is getting an economy on life support and it's the dems fault? Lol.. smh..
Trump decided to crash it with his tariffs and deportation
Agreed
Planning to crash it under Trump? You really think they’re that clever?
You brought a very good point, Nick, what is the potential of these new homes in next 2-3-5 years, not even saying 10-20. That was the reason we decided not to buy, the offer was good, rate buy down, customizations.. BUT, they will continue to build devaluing it. Lots are small, materials and architecture - crap, at this point it seems more like a slavery. Please, make your math before you buy. Closing costs, interest vs equity in first 5 years, resale value in next 5 years.
Guys I bought a lennar home about 6 months ago for 187k in San Antonio. It's 3 bed 2 bath, 1260 sq feet. Do you think that I got cooked? My wife and I really enjoy living here and just FYI the main reason we bough was because it was going to be about 400$ a month cheaper than comparable rent in our area as well as the fact that the home purchase allowed us to qualify for in state tuition saving us about 12k a year on our loans over the next 4 years.
Sounds like you made a good move, buddy. Congratulations. Now go open a business in your home and get yourself some tax deductions.
186k in San Antonio is actually pretty good all things considered. Just be emotionally prepared for a) it not being your forever home and b) the upkeep may strike back with a vengeance. Consider doing some preventative maintenance on appliances, walls, etc.
Good job! Most are looking to at least match the cost of renting, and you managed to get it for less.
But San Antonio is part of Mexico.
Nah you're cookin bro keep up the good work
I know eventually I’ll be able to afford a house. The real crisis is the crap that’s being built today.
You will. I saw this in 2008-2010. $350 houses will be $100-150 like they were in 2010. Got my 1971 4 bedroom house on the water with a pool here in sw florida for $102 in 2015. It was a fixer upper but only cosmetic issues. Deals will be everywhere. Wait for a good one. Look at it three times - you’ll find all the problems the second and third view.
There’s nothing wrong with these houses. You’re just coping for not being able to afford a house now
@@@Eman1900O
No. Builders are cutting corners on quality. This is happening all over the
@@Eman1900Othere are several websites dedicated to showing the shoddy craftsmanship that goes on in these houses. These are starter homes that the initial buyers are looking to sell in 5-10 years. So there’s no incentive for Lennar or Dr Horton to build long lasting homes (until they get the terrible reputation they have today) These massive national builders contract the lowest bidder and set aside 400 million a year in anticipated lawsuits. Allegedly, insiders say their targeted lifespan for the houses are only 20 years.
@@Eman1900O There's plenty of videos out there showing the poor quality trash being churned out now.
I really like your "boots on the ground" approach to real estate. Florida market is gonna be fascinating in 2025.
I continue to see houses going up for sale in TX that were purchased just a few years ago. Also, I've been seeing a lot of townhouses sitting on the market for a very long time, especially when the builder doesn't lower the asking prices.
Same here in Florida
Good! I hope they hold onto it for the next 5 years when they'll regret not selling and not lowering the price cuz things will likely get baaad
Sounds like foreclosure central, Northern California Central Valley circa Xmas 2007. Signs on every corner.
@@gregorysagegreene Yeah, and I'd imagine that the "mortgage forbearances" have only delayed the inevitable.🥴🤯
We just bought a 1550 square foot Lennar Home 3 bedroom 2 bath in Kyle Texas for $219,000 with a 4.25% which was a $265K home 😮 it was just too good to pass up 😎
Are there lots of investors in your neighborhood?
Good move
Been watching this for a couple years living in SWFL and visiting Central FL (Davenport). Insane amount of new housing everywhere and mostly townhomes. The news single family communities are so claustrophobic
your neighbors house catches fire so does yours.
They have no idea what people want. They're producing cheap crap with ugly interior designs and trying to make people pay out the nose for it.
I continue to be smazed at how close really large houses are, but buying a "townhome" is like buying an apartment.
@@rebelwithacause5217not the same. I’ve had both
If I were a homeowner thinking about selling, the last site I would ever want to see is Nick walking down my street doing a video.
😂
Why? he is still waiting for that crash for 5 years.
Yes, he is a bit of an economic Grim Reaper.
@@jroc523Yeah, exactly. If I see this guy walking down my street I know my value is about to skyrocket 30%+
The Jim Cantore of real estate. You don’t want to see him in your neighborhood. :)
Not until more locations suffer 30% price drops in not only new but older homes….
All the prices need to come way down. They've bene overinflated for the past 4 years. I've commented it before, places have quadrupled in price where I live. There is no reason a 5 bedroom home is $1.3 million and that's literally your own price range. It's $600k for a 2 bedroom. These prices are beyond nuts. Neither place I'm thinking about is anything special. If I was actually going to spend over a million, that home doesn't even meet my min requirements fort he kitchen alone.
Wow, the builders strategy is brilliant, keep prices high locking out the existing home market and have buyer come to them exclusively.
That housing price isn't strange when you understand the house will literally fall apart in 3 years
We have been told this same thing for the last year. I have not seen a "crash" yet. I have seen price reductions for owners wanting to sell their homes but I have yet to see a "crash", and those buy downs don't usually last for long. I live in north Ga.
I've seen the time houses sit on lots extend from 1-3 days, to 1-2 weeks, to months on end over the course of this year.
This guy's been making videos for almost 4 years telling everyone that the crash is imminent.
The race to the bottom is about to begin 👍👍
I’ve heard this for 10 years now lol
@ at least 5 for sure. You gotta admit, it can’t go on like it is. There’s gotta be a correction. There always is. Patient is key. Prepare as best you can.
@@johnlopez4089 oh we are prepared, but I doubt it will ever effect the area we actually want/need to live in. It never really happens anymore for hcol areas.
Still waiting (SpongeBob voice)
Already in progress in certain parts of the US real estate market. But keep in mind there's certain regions where you will never see a huge decline.
Builders pick rural areas or remote areas outside of the city because they get the land cheap, and then they divide it and then they mark it up for Massive profit.
True, plus the cities are built out, so it forces builders to move on to rural areas which are no longer considered rural once the big builders arrive. Our county has exploded with new construction and commercial businesses.
On the other hand, my sister in Oregon bought from DR Horton in 2005, good quality, and they rode through the wave.
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I located her through google, sent her an email, and scheduled a call; hopefully, she will reply because I want to start the new year off financially strong.
I am sure 2025 is the year of the crash. Dudes been calling it since 2021. Prices are up over 60% since he called for a crash.
Prices are up 60% since he literally said the "crash" started in June 2021 video. 🤣
This is not an affordability issue. These types of neighborhoods are profoundly unpleasant to live in. They are far from good restaurants and entertainment. You are looking at bleak featureless landscape and at the mercy of your worst neighbors potpourri of pickup’s motorcycles, domestic squabbles, the unrelenting banging of mindless cornhole and ping pong games, and noisy dogs. If you have lived in one of those places you will never do it again. They are visual and acoustical torture chambers.
Neighbors are 40%, neighborhood is 40%, property 20. Proximity is everything, the primary thing.
I pay $1500/month for a studio in a colorado ski town. Spendy and small, but its quiet and i ride my bike or take the free bus. In the meantime I'm living like a monk and saving. The crash is coming for the simple reason that the whole country is broke.
@@Anthony-bl4rc so true.
One of the worst builders around is LENNAR🙁🙁wouldn’t buy anything from them
Can i ask which area and what model home? I heard it depends. Whats wrong with yours?
Lennar is crap.
Richmond builds garbage homes too.
I can verify boots on the ground that this is happening in places like Fort Myers and Punta Gorda. I cannot believe how much building there's going on and they don't put available signs in front of most of the homes so it looks like they could possibly be sold when they are actually not. I haven't seen this much new build inventory in over a decade. The real estate agents are still saying the market is still great and you better buy now before the price goes up. Yet they're giving away free pools, 4.5% interest, other free upgrades, and closing costs. I've never seen so many empty demo offices. 3 years ago there was a line going out to the front. I don't feel sorry for any of them. I have also noted what you said here, local buyers are trying to sell their two or three-year-old home even for what they paid just to get out of it, and they can't because you can get a brand new one for less. And how can you compete with the builder mortgage buydowns? It's impossible.
Great point.
Also in Fort Myers (Lee County) and you are spot on my friend. Most the Lennar and DR Horton communities where there are like 5 or so homes left to sell have been sitting for months. Check out Pratts Preserve off Six Mile Cypress and Crystal Dr. Crash or not, we’ll see, however, something is happening and happening fast.
They need to come way down on prices.
I'm favoured only God knows how much I praise Him, $230k every 4weeks! I now have a big mansion and can now afford anything and also support God’s work and the church.
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
I earn from investing in the digital market with the guidance of (Ms. Evelyn Vera) Brokerage services. I'm happy to talk about it!!!
I remember giving her my first saved up $20000 and she opened a brokerage account with it for me, it turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to me.
People are moving out of Florida. Why ? Its too EXPENSIVE ! Average salary's in Florida cover about half of the cost of living.
property tax is insane!
@cmasters007 according to taylor swift florida is a beautiful place
Florida is driven by out of control flippers and investors,
640,000 people moved to Florida last year!!! Yeah you heard me right 640,000!!! Florida is still booming for sure and probably always will.......
@ I’ll take that bet
It’s nothing like 2008. In 2008 folks were stuck with adjustable rate mortgages that ballooned to the point that they couldn’t make their payments.
You have to be insane to buy in Florida between insane HOA,s can’t get affordable insurance and having to deal with hurricanes , floods , sinkholes ,tornados , not to mention the bugs and killer humidity..On top of that new homes are built like cheap crap even it was at zero interest aren’t worth buying .. Better off in Arizona or Nevada, they may not have an ocean but have plenty of beach .
Where the beaches there lol
Not to mention the crazy religious conservatives who ban books in school
@ both states are mostly all sand that eventually lead to a body of water
yeah Florida sucks, definitely don't move here
@@Isa-o5f Sand my friend...lots of sand.
Come to Colorado all builders fell for the soft landing and the specs are incredible on every site. I have been framing and welding houses for 26 years here and I never have seen so much inventory and we weld for lennar and they have the most but still are digging holes
Which parts of Colorado?
@ I work from Colorado Springs to Fort Collins. Custom homes to tracks. We just finished a big project in Vail. We also go east to Strausberg
@@clinetalboColorado ain’t it, my friend. Especially the springs. It hails like no tomorrow in the summer time and it’s going to do significant damage to your home and cars. Don’t listen to this man, he’s trying to get a quick sale.
Thanks for your comment Jeff...I have been wondering about Colorado since they have had huge price increases in the last few years. I spent some time in Chaffee County and a local told me (about a year ago) that the County had put a moratorium on issuing new building permits bc the demand for new houses was so great and they could not keep up....or maybe they were trying to slow down the growth?...I don't know what's going now...
@ you’re welcome, my opinion is Colorado has no manufacturing and is a warehouse and trucking state so construction is the main employment both residential and commercial so the powers that be are manipulating the numbers to keep this economy going but it think that has finally hit a brick wall, I have a KB project out by DIA and they are now filling in the holes they dug for foundations. Bless you
It’s not just the localization, it’s about the type of houses selling. If luxury homes are selling at huge discounts ($ 1 million dollar home selling for 600K) and entry level homes aren’t selling, then the average housing price would appear to go up because the average price of mostly luxury homes is representing the entire market.
Nothing scary at all about homes sitting for sale. I am genuinely happy that inventory is skyrocketing, will be really happy if home prices fall 50%.
Me too... as long as it's accompanied by a 50% price drop in everything else related to home construction and renovation including building materials, tools, energy, appliances, tradespeople, etc.
I don't recall housing prices ever dropping 50%, or any other thing dropping in price. Our population increased by 12+ million illegals over the last 4 years. My state doesn't even have that many people. They gotta live somewhere.
@@MyDyerMakermost of them are getting deported with trump so they’ll be forced to drop prices on homes
SMH. This is exactly what happened in Northern Virginia just outside of the DC area in the 90s - people could not sell their homes due to the building cutting prices on the new homes in the same neighborhood. Took years for some home owners to be able to sell unless they took huge losses. We never learn.
Same with Bethesda, MD in the 90s.
Nick. As usual, an incredible video. Thank you so much for sharing your wisdom.🙌🙌🙌
"I don't know how home builders are even making money on these houses..."
Tell me you know nothing about home builders without telling me you know nothing about home builders. Mark up on a track home is as high as 300% (3x) over base material cost. Lower finance rate costs the builder absolutely nothing. I get the shock and awe tactic for your audience, but there is no reason to act surprised about builders doing precisely what builders do and a business model that is at least 50 years old.
Put aside permits, i had someone tell me 165.00 a sf to build.
Are you saying builders add a 300% markup on the materials then add labor and other costs on top... or are you saying the all-in, final cost of a tract home is equivalent to 300% of the base materials?
@@eddiemalvin Key word was "as high". Mark up depends on many factors, though minimum mark up is 200% of material and labor. Land usually ends up being 4x-10x. The typical $300k house costs less than $150k to build. Depending on those "upgrades", many (most) of your more expensive homes have a larger mark up. The primary misconception is the fact that "the public" uses "retail pricing" to figure out profit margins, the reality is that track home builders pay wholesale rates. Concrete for example, the public rate might be $10+/sqft for slabs, I'll pay $5. Nationwide builders buy direct from wood sources, I can't touch their pricing but I'll pay less than half of what you see in Home Depot. So yes, take your Lennar/DrHorton/Meritage/etc track home....a $300k list price home cost them about $135k to build.
@@brianmatthews4149 Permits cost "nothing", they are laughable. Contractors can quote whatever they want and $165 is low., their cost is still about half that though.
@@eddiemalvin The largest companies save most of their money by hiring "people with questionable work permits". This actually made national news when they complained in Texas that most of their workforce would disappear if Trump went through with the planned deportations. The average "starter" home really does cost them less than 100K to build. They build fast, cheap, and cut every corner that they can.
The situation of rd horton is not surprising: it's been years people have been complaining about the tofu houses that they build. Now, the data has pilled up, it became so in your face that now people are avoiding the purchase of these cardboard boxes. Not surprising at all.
Thank you for saying that people really still can't afford to buy houses as it currently stands. It's still an affordability issue.
No. It's basically a "they tewk all are mawney!" issue.
D
Hey Nick, I’ve learned a lot since I started following you ~3 years ago
This happened in Sarasota back in 2006-2007. We were able to get out in the middle of the crash, so it had already peaked, and was on the way back down. We had two contracts that fell apart, within 2 months, but the third one held. We paid off a $104,000 mortgage. We paid cash in north Ga. for double the size we sold, and the house we bought was only 8 yrs old. Not to brag, cuz we were just in the right place, at the right time, and I thank God for that!
It's not 2008, it's they won't lower their prices because they're waiting for a corporation to buy it
Home prices need to drop so that young people can afford them. This is good news 😅
Young people can own nothing and still be happy.
@@gigadolphinlol. WEF nonsense.
Bought a new build in california in 2021. They bring in the pre built trusses and gave me a stone roof which was nice. But they skimp on the exterior sheathing and do not cover all the house in plywood. Half of my garage is literally studs with insulating foam and chicken wire with painted stucco. Sure, it may "Pass code" but it still looks really weird and cheap.
How is that possible to pass code in California?
Shear wall ,they only use as much as needed for code.yes just think for less then a 1000.00 to finish the rest of the house off with plywood or osb.
@@brianmatthews4149 I would gladly pay that small of an extra cost
Virtually no homebuilding in California, though. California is dying from no inventory and high prices.
Just be patient. The California unemployment numbers are the highest in the nation. This will bring a flood of homes to the market in the next 2 years
@Dorian_Gray83 God, I hope so!
So Cal is building. But the demand is still too stong.
San diego is building massive buildings EVERYWHERE!!! Unless they're to house 50k section 8 renters, no one will be able to afford them anyway.
Today, I found out why the wage and median housing price in CA gaps so much. How do you pay for 900k median home price when median household income is 90k? My sister who's a realtor out in CA told me that now a lot of the buyers use their stock portfolio to qualify and pay for the house. The stock bubble is what's driving the housing price. One good correction and the housing market is on verge of collapsing.
I put on a huge short position against $XHB and $BX six months ago and have had my a$$ handed to me. I don't believe any kind of downturn is happening.
Sober up, there's never gonna be another 2008. We are 5.6 million homes. Negative versus supply demand. Even if a handful of builders have to cut prices it won't put a dent in the 5.5 million short.
Not true. The supposed housing shortage is a canard promoted by the home builders.
@@wakethebarbarian4577Then why are prices still going up, up and up?
In 2008 there was a 20 million surplus
Reventure consulting has predicted 7,000 of the last 0 market meltdowns!
This is a crucial update for anyone in real estate!!
2008 was caused due to over leveraged consumers, not an over supply of housing.
Over supply just means prices will go down, which is good for most people.
2008 did have over supply as well.
@@Jonathaneve5 Fair enough. I think today is more of a shortage of affordable housing. People want to buy houses, but can't at these prices. Unlike in 2008, prices plummeted and people weren't buying even $100k houses. I just don't think it's the exact same. Perhaps a few more years to go.
Super professional! As always
Bought my house in north Houston in Dec 2020... 2.75% for 30 years fixed.... so glad I'm out of this rat race! God is good.
Ugh. 🙄 God has nothing to do with your good luck. You're implying God doesn't love me and my family just because my husband got laid off in late 2018 and couldn't land a full-time job until after Covid settled down. That wasn't God, that was being left holding the bag in this ponzi scheme of an economy. Now we can't buy a house because they DOUBLED in price + interest rate DOUBLED during our time of hardship. So you're saying God hates us? 🤔 Think about that.
Love your channel my brother keep it up
Bro, what’s so crazy about a 11k (2.9%) price drop????? 380k to 369k. Big deal. What’s with the dramatic response?
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis Nick
Thank you Sir
Well said!!
I always love listening to you
Love for you to look in surprise Arizona tons of new build is insane out here.
Not happening everywhere. In ranson/Charlestown, west virgina they can't build houses fast enough. They are all being sold at or before drywall is up.
Does anything real estate-wise happen outside of Florida?
Evidently, Florida and Texas are the only.two states in the country. 🤣
House prices r very high! I never experienced before. I bought 4 houses at past I sold 2 houses 2013 2015. I wish never sold my properties. Now is double price...
The building corporations had been making enormous profits on homes; now they are just making a semi-modest profit. I think one of the reasons folks moving into the Sun Belt areas had been overpaying is that they were used to high prices - but they in for a rude awakening when they see their housing values PLUNGE.
They won’t plunge, they purchased with cash from sales of their previous properties in California and New York. The people at the bottom of the chain will be forced into homelessness because they were ripped off because of market manipulation by companies like black rock, Berkshire Hathaway, etc., just look at the repo market of these private equity firms that were using real estate to stash cash.
YUP
Just bought a 1958 house because old houses are finite. The inspection came back great. I’m glad I never considered a newer build.
Homes (2) to either side of me just sold at record prices (Monmouth county New Jersey) both very tired first time home buyer homes. Real estate is local. Somewhere in us prices going up others flat others going down. That’s normal. The high prices are not. Im old been in r/e game over 40 yes. As builder investor owner of many many homes. Every 10 yes r/e surprises me. That’s why I love it… Im not greedy so I don’t get slaughtered. I have been successful and remain unscathed.
Buy with as little as possible, when prices dump quit paying and live free in the house for 5 years. Save the cash for downpayment on next house.
Best Real Estate Channel on RUclips!!I’m a retired Real Estate Agent. I wish I had access to your channel before I retired.
You should have a session on how to use your web site periodically. I’m sure once your viewers understand the full capabilities of your site they would foolish not to subscribe
Thanks
🤣🤣🤣 You're totally being sarcastic, right ? Right ?
wrong, Wrong!
He said the same thing last year in December
As an investor looking day in and day out to buy, statistics are skewed. My market is dry and homes and multi units selll within days.
I am 53 and retired at 50. 1 thing I did do to retire early was to get out of the 401K and IRA programs. Bought rental real-estate and I am now a Limited Partner in about 1500+ units from collabrative efforts in the fund my estate planner has me invested in. I do not work.
I only contribute 5% to get full company match, that’s it. The 401K plan is designed for you to work until you are about dead. Also, the government does not have their hands on it yet either.
My wife and I live off of our 401K. We don't work. I recommend highly to everyone to build your 401K or Roth IRA's as an alternate revenue stream in retirement to your Social Security. An observation on 401K's is when it gets over 300K it starts to accelerate. When you get over 500K it can really accelerate as the stock market grows.
If I may ask, as in withdrew all of the money from the 401K and IRA programs? If so, what was your strategy behind that decision? Thank you.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Stacy Lynn Staples who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
At the end of 2007, I bought a Lennar home in a new development. I knew prices were correcting and negotiated what I thought was a good deal. Never would have expected what would have happened in 2008-09. There were about 7 families moved into the neighborhood, then everything hit full stop. It was a ghost town for 2 years. Just empty lots and some partially built homes. In 2010, they started building again. Slowly. Much more scaled down models in terms of size and finishes. Finished the ~250 homes around 2013-14. They finally built the community pool & community clubhouse at the end of 2014. It was a wild ride. And those videos of half built communities brings back some memories.
The Prime Rate has absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rates. They are completely isolated markets. If you don’t know that, everything that you say is worthless.
You’re not wrong
Great point on how you have to compete with the builder when selling a recently built home. 👏
What amazes me is people have been talking about a bubble burst and recession for last 2.5 years... I've seen all the graphs and yes I agree its poised for things to take a dump. But could be 2025 or beyond. I'd rather it hit now as I'll be ready to retire in 5 years and want the economy to be strong when I do.
Plan on retiring in 10-15 years. All of the various factors point to a collapse similar to what happened a hundred years ago.
Where? Because Atlanta is still booming. I have to move way out beyond metro Atlanta to get a decent home price.😢
Bother u been calling for 2008 all over again for like 2 years
More like 4 years.
Your videos are very informative. Been watching them for a while. Good work. I was thinking of something. I wonder if the people that are going to be buying houses next year 2025 can also negotiate not being a part of HOA’s because of the headache that HOA’s have become.That’s what I would be trying to negotiate for also, at this moment in time that they’re a little more desperate to sell.
There are some communities where being a member of the HOA is optional, but otherwise you must be a member. HOA rules and regulations trump the local rules if they are stricter, at least here in Georgia.
Those homes 8:43 are literally like sitting ON TOP of each other
Here in So Cal, seeing builders offering 4.99 fixed for 30, but even with the concession the payment is just so much higher than renting the equivalent, it just makes no sense. Factor in lost interest on down payment, it's even worse. Buy vs rent so out of whack. I will pay a premium to own, but not 2x.
Only $2,100??? Still can't afford it.
I’m under contract & am seeing 4.8% interest rate incentives alongside the closing cost payoffs. They’re also doing builder-paid temp rate buydowns to 3 - 4.8%!
US population has increased by 35+ Million since 2008
Pile of inventory? Where?
You guys have been saying that for 5yrs. This is *NOT* 2008.
Black Rock & Chona have entered the chat. 📲
I sure wish Australia would get this ''problem'' soon. It's the opposite and Australia desperately NEEDS much more housing.
Meanwhile, in coastal California, a broken down shed goes for over $1 million.
There’s no pile ups of inventory. Inventory is still super low. Prices are still going up. Pressure upwards for a melt up is what we are facing, this guy has been calling for a crash since what? 2021? Coming into 2025 and still nothing.
He pops up in my feed all the time. Snake oil salesman peddling a snake oil app. If you want a home, buy a home and enjoy your life.
@ only if you can afford said home. Don’t become house broke tryin to buy more than you can afford. Affordability is in the shitter and it’s all doubled to tripled for very little reason other than just cuz. So don’t fall into that pit trap of house broke.
One thing I didn’t see in the video was that some builders have moved to a spec strategy due to supply chain issues as well as available trades. A friend bought a new build at dirt and was supposed to be finished in 7 months, but due to material shortages, the build took 12 months, completely unacceptable. Buyers are frustrated, the builder is frustrated, so they moved to specs and having homes available. It’s a gamble.