Tesla navigates stormy weather with LONG-TERM FOCUS (Ep. 729)
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
- I share my thoughts on Tesla’s Q1 2023 earnings report, earnings call, and comments from Elon Musk, Zach Kirkhorn, Drew Baglino and Tesla management.
Read Tesla’s Q1 2023 Shareholder Letter: tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/ZX...
Listen to Tesla’s Q1 2023 Earnings Call: ruclips.net/user/live3MVIWeU36ZY
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💁🏻♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threa...
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Dave had his estimates right, as opposed to the echo chamber of the recent crop of TSLA hyper bulls. And he gives a well-grounded concise analysis without speculation.
So true. I'm waiting for the comments of Randys and Warrens of this world :-)
agreed, but Dave is a part of SJW, omg the racists, blacks, and pearl-clutching libs tribe, right? I think his heart is in the right place, but the SJW's might have infected him. Is this off base?
Thank you Dave, short and sweet. Tesla is a long term investment. Their management is amazing. Soon people will realize Tesla is not "just a car company"! 🇨🇦
So good to see you again Dave after all this time! Thank you!
You're the first one I came to after the call. Thanks for your calm analysis.
the best
Love your short summaries, Dave! Thanks for your awesomeness!
Nice work. Thx for your thoughtful summary.
Thanks Dave. I’ve been missing your videos.
Tesla is weathering the storm better than anyone else. Making profit$ & gaining velocity while the "competition" struggles & loses speed & $$ on EV's. All Systems Go......
I guess investors over reacted then
Always enjoys watching your videos. Keep up the good work Dave.
Thanks David, so much confusion until I got your video, short and sweet, very informative crude facts. Nice seeing you again. Please stick around.
"Volumes" over "Margins," means driving your competitors out of business!
Thank you so much for your effort, Dave! Much appreciated! 👏
Enjoy your short, concise reports.
Succinct and short review! Much appreciated Dave.👊🏾
Appreciate the concise summary. Thanks!
Awesome report Dave. Thank you!
Thank you Dave!
Great summary thanks Dave.
Dave Lee replaces click bait with facts. Still the best Tesla podcaster. Thanks Dave.
Amazing. Analysts clutching their pearls because gross margins came a bit below expectations. Compared with legacy automakers, Tesla still outperforms everyone on gross margins and with their focus on volume and sound financials, they’re still a good bet for long term investors.
You nailed your estimates! 👏👏👏
Thanks for the summary Dave, keep up the great work 👍
Tks Dave! short & concise👍
Great recap! Thanks for sharing Dave! 👍🏽
Hey Dave, thanks for making this short and concise.
Love your vids, short, clear and easy understanding to the main points.
ideal recap video, thank you Dave!
Dave you are the best ! As usual, you provide very concise and honest earning call summary without the hype or unnecessary wild speculations. Keep it up.
Thanks Dave tough night
Very helpful. Thanks so much Dave 👍🏻
Thanks. I wish in the future, you could be part of Tesla's Board of Directors.
Helpful as always
Really enjoy listening to your analysis! Straight to the point. 👍
Thanks Dave!!!
Tesla’s focus is appropriately placed in my opinion. They eliminated debt and built up cash reserves leading up to the current economic conditions. Now they’re able to continue growing their footprint and customer base as others are contracting. With the efforts around manufacturing improvements and even further cost reductions, who is better positioned for the long term? This is what good leadership looks like.
Thanks Dave, best summary out there. Another piece of that seeking autonomy puzzle is the more cars on the road the more Tesla collects data so on that front it may be wiser to reduce cost, cut margin and increase data. I like this much better than when Tesla was raising prices though that may have been good for margins. Cutting price is much more in line with Tesla's stated goal of speeding the transition of the entire transportation system and energy grid We're not going to see ev S curves with $50,000 vehicles in my opinion. The legacies and even Chinese ev companies are suffering because of Tesla's cuts.
Impressive predictions Dave! Appreciate your analysis as always.
Thanks..........awesome Dave
Amazing recap in a concise video. This is what we need in 2023
Good take on Tesla reporting.
Very helpful. Thank you!
Spot on! Buying my $TSLA back around $140
I really really appreciate that you get right in to it. No annoying intro, no ask for likes and subscribe
💯 you can also see with his success on RUclips that it’s not necessary
Hoping FUD will be massive and TSLA drops below $150 so I can pick up another twenty or thirty shares at a discount.
Buying
Set your goals low and succeed them! What the hell does Wallstreet want, it was a great Q1!
Awesome. Thanks.
I have heard from several sources near/working at Tesla that gross margin on energy/Mega-Packs was around 50%, not 20%.
As always, yes..very helpful analysis.
Dave lee 🐐
What was the warranty adjustment?
The 115M miles of FSD experience is so noteworthy as are the step change improvements from versus 11+. I’ve been on FSD since Oct 2021 and the improvement level is significant.
Dave couldn't help but laugh when quoting elon saying "this year" for fsd
I'm guessing every investor laughed.
It will happen but i think it will be next year but i would like to be proven wrong by it happening this year 😂
@@Viking7771 yes i gues 2025 or 2026. We shall see...
not worry about short term! Tesla future is great!
It will be extremely close by the end of this year, they will spend most of next year working out the edge cases and improving/increasing the available generated mapping data used for trip decision making. Most likely will be ready for prime time by early to mid 2025. Regulatory approval coming by 2027 id wager once enough data is there showing massive safety improvements over human drivers. They will have a monopoly on general FSD tech so it will be interesting.
Hi Dave! Great vid as always. Could you please do a Deep dive as to why CAPEX was so high in this quarter? Thx
Betting long term on autonomy isn’t new to investors.
If it wasn’t their focus all along and now they say autonomy will generate good profits, that will be a worry.
Looking forward to the coming years ahead ! Thanks Dave
I haven't heard anyone commenting on AGI and FSD. Data is far less important once AGI is attained. When that is not Tesla, and competitors start leasing this technology and pump out robotaxi's - that would force Tesla to write off billions of investments in FSD - and to lease the same technology. Stock would crash and stay down.
@Dave Lee I think you have a mistake in your table at 1:33. The year-on-year growth was from $616 million to $1.529 billion, which is far higher than the 98% figure you provide in the table. Was this a typo? Or am I misunderstanding something?
Down Goes Frazier 👊
Brilliant move getting the cars on the road with price drop, even though i just lost $5k buying the model y a month ago
Lol.
Same 😅
You didn’t “lose” anything. You gained a Tesla..
And what have you ever bought that has increased in value? Only super rich can afford super cars and park them or a Van Gogh
I've been super bullish on Tesla since 2016 - thanks for this Dave!! Great analysis!
great info, did anybody ask Elon when he will step down from Twitter and focus more on Tesla?
The best
Dave when we will receive major price movements?
Sage advice
great summary! All the "experts" compare Tesla performance against their expectations instead of comparing Tesla performance against their competitors.
Their competitors are not priced at 50x multiples. More like 3-4x multiples. That's why we expect much better things from tesla. Otherwise if it's aim is to just beat competitors, it should be priced at max 10x mutiple which means $25 Tesla stock
Great video Dave. Slight positive correction- they actually reported over 150 million FSD miles to date, not 115.
Any update on the semi and it's ramp given that it's been in pilot production for 5 months now.
Hi Dave, could you also a provide a summary of Q&A section?
Buy the dip
Buying opportunity tomorrow!
automotive gm is 18.5%
thx dave, i rely on you for these
How many times did elon say „fsd will be ready this year“?
Incredibly insightful, well reasoned and balanced view on Tesla’s Q1 performance and future prospects. Like you I saw many areas to be thankful for with strengths across supercharger network growth and utilization (60% of Europe opened to all without wait time issues), stellar energy storage growth, and more. I remain as optimistic as ever.
Always do such a great job on these summaries... best of the bunch! SoCalFreddy
Excellent summary. For the robotaxi skeptics, myself included, things are not looking good. Stock will get hammered until gen 3 ramps.
So I think we can look forward to the Cybertruck delivery 30 September.
❤ Wow Dave! Thanks for such a good summary and opinion on Tesla’s Q1 results! But I am suspicious ChatGPT did the work for you!? 😅
Great summary!
“Corpus Christi lithium refinery breaks DOWN next month” 😂 I hope not!
thanks Dave, Go TESLA!
I bought 20 shares today at 181 and a few hours later it dropped to 169 😔
congrats. you bought into a pump and dump
@@jebes909090 i got played 😭
You made a bet but lost for the short term. Do I think TSLA stock price will be more than $181 sometimes in the future? Yes, absolutely. In fact, I will be buying some more shares tomorrow.
@@randallraines6553 think long term
Excellent summary. You missed the clarification on Elon prediction about his larger energy market than car is about KWh, not necessary on revenue.
I'd be surprised if revenue from adding on FSD is significant in the next 2 yrs.
Could margin in energy be dragged down by solar roof?
make Power Brick for Mobile power 10kwh LFP - w Inverter /DC - Quick charge at car chargers / home - work / RV /backup etc
I drove my model 3 last week from LA to El Paso TX. I have FSD with the latest update. On the freeway the vehicle at 75 mph was passing the slower vehicles on the left/right side. CERO interventions both ways. In the city hardly any interventions. Only one because the street was closed for repairs (Phoenix) So I think FSD just might be ready at the end of this year, or next year at the latest.
I also have FSD and it works really well on the highway and suburbia. However, try it in old northeast cities (large and small) like Boston, NY, Montreal and Phili and FSD is a long way from robotaxi level.
@@edhill8568 Interesting. Can you say what it is, in particular, about these older city streets that confuses FSD?
@@eyesuckle The complete lack of a grid street layout. Odd angle intersections with many obstructed views. Lack of good and clear street markings, lots of potholes and speed limits that don't match how people drive. And last but not least are the crazy Boston area drivers.
@@edhill8568 Thanks for your comprehensive reply, Ed!
@@eyesuckle Driving last night and thought you'd be interested in this. One of the 4 way intersections with lights only shows 2 of the 4 intersecting roads. The one you're on and the road coming in from the left. The other 2 are out of sight. Only when you get into the actual intersection do you go downhill and turn to the right. You can then see the intersecting road "across from you" and the road to the right. Probably designed in the horse and buggy era.
Dave, you are the adult version of the kid you would want to get class notes from.
As usual for you, your notes are concise and precisely on point as well as your forecasts on target.
Looks like the ultra fast growing Megapack business in Lathrop will help Tesla weather the recession this year.
When do you think the EV charging revenues will be material?
Tesla stock price might test recent lows. Price cuts are not a sign that demand is there. Autonomous driving is probably not coming this year despite Musk saying it will.
FSD beta miles is 150m, not 115m.
I wish Elon would address his shareholders and say he cares about them and that he is aware of them.
I hope he doesn't. One of the things I love about Tesla (and I am an investor) is that they are focussed on their mission, which is to transition the world to electric vehicles and a clean energy power grid. Making money for people who want to share in that mission is a side benefit, but not the goal.
Level 3 autonomy at best if he commits by end of yr. He won't declare higher level than that as he has operated methodically and carefully and will continue to test out ability and improvements.
I'm a concerned Tesla investor. After watching Elon's BBC interview it's hard to not see the whole thing negatively, l think.
4:30 these %ages are very large - this is actually huge news and very likely to be realised given they now have experience with the batteries.
Assuming it can be a 2 part Robotaxi project : highway and city . When do you think Tesla can launch highway robotaxi?
I don’t get why they are buying lots of an idea GPU? I thought they developed an in house GPU
Time to turn bearish
I’m good with 19.3% profit while the company is ramping up with the prospect of FSD and a next gen affordable vehicle that will be the biggest selling EV in the world
I hear people complaining about this, but it is okay. IMO they are doing what they need to do for long-term growth.
Shift to B2B makes sense during a recession. Businesses are more likely to spend $$ on automation and improvements.
Idea for your language app: “Finance Lingo”. It took me months to teach myself the basic vocabulary needed to understand financial news articles and reports and to be able to discern what’s relevant information to me and what’s noise that I can ignore. I bet you would have great ideas on how to instill this basic vocabulary efficiently. Thanks for all the great insights.
Damn Austin, TX aged Dave by a ton. Lmao.