Substack, for video transcript and direct links: kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/chinas-new-trade-routes-from-brazil?r=4pow86
16 дней назад+381
US should expect to do less and less business with China when it operates an anti-China policy. It makes no sense for China to give the farm business to an enemy when there are friends with the same farm products available.
and it's not just China. ANY country affiliated with BRICS or Belt & Road will naturally gravitate to either China, or others in the collective. USA will be LAST on the list.
Enmity always came from the US rather than from China. Thus China never saw problem in buying food with the US, but lately it's been hard for the Chinese to ignore the growing animosity by the US
China refused to kowtow & kiss the ring & become a VASSAL, it’s been far too long, with the mindset of hegemonic arrogant & Hubris to think China would BUCKLE like .. NIPPON among others too…!! 🙄
China can send them ALL the economical panels which the US will TRY to price out of the market. That will reduce the expense of the products Brazil builds in the factories China assists them with.
@rogerstarkey5390 the u.s. isn't competitive enough on solar panels. Brazil and China trade between themselves. So the u.s. can't manipulate price. The u.s. can pound sand.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Jihan Wu Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him here in Canada 🇨🇦 as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I work in cutting-edge Tech and it is painful, but necessary, to realize the my colleagues in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America can do the same work I do for 1/5th the cost. This doesn't mean that although I get paid 5x as much, my lifestyle is 5x better. Due to the fact that I live in the US Bay Area, my cost of living is5 - 10x as much. No bitterness, no recriminations -- that's just the reality. And please, don't say AI will save the US. I work in AI, and Chinese AI systems are as good or better.
Western media rarely talk about the fact that the Chinese PPP is the highest in the world. Even when the GDP or average salary is "middle income", their money goes further.
One thing ppl have not paid attention to yet -- the Chinese farmers have gone to Ru (the area bordering China) and leased lots of vacant land and turned them into farms !!! The climate there is similar to Canada's, and they are very productive.
I’ve seen a special report, the retiring Russian farmers renting out to Chinese farmers & they’re building climate controlled green houses to grown cash crop for both markets, farmers see their land put to good use.. 👍 WIN WIN for those involved 😁
Global warming is making Chinese farming in Siberia a lot more cost effective. The West will say China is colonizing lower Siberia without a single shot fired, but Russia and China are both winning, so the claim rings hollow.
I love the ending where he shows us different parts of China. I would love to go and stay a year just to explore the country and interact with its people.
Well.....if I was a leader of a nation and another nation made it their national policy to decouple from me, I would mitigate my risk exposure to that other nation by seeking alternative markets and limiting trade with the decoupling nation to the point where trade between my nation and that nation was as far from critical as one could get. This is simple common sense. How did the US think it was going to decouple from the biggest market in the world and not suffer any adverse consequences? I actually think the US has not even started to see the true cost of its trade war and decoupling with China. If it is bad now, let's revisit this conversation in another year or two to understand just how much worse it's going to get.
Honestly, I used to think these guys were kind of silly, but now I think their ideas are actually quite normal. On one hand, during the golden ages of Trump and Biden, America felt like it was at its strongest, with this illusion that it could do anything without consequences. This illusion has only grown stronger with time, especially as they've gotten older. On the other hand, no matter how bad things get in the US, it doesn't really seem to affect the political elites or Wall Street too much. Even if the whole country turned into a slum, they'd still find a way to live comfortably. And isn't it true that the more ridiculous something is, the more money you can make from it? In China, one of our biggest criticisms of the US political system is that responsibility gets shuffled around so much that no one really takes it.
In ANOTHER smart move.... China just expanded their Transit visa scheme From 144hrs (6 Days) to 240 hrs (10 days), increased the number of entry/ exit points from 39 to 60 AND reduced restrictions in areas previously considered "sensitive".
It will be very hard for US administration to keep up with china. They are not at par. Us leadership is still stuck at cold war era. The Chinese administration is superior and focused.
...and causing a big problem for the US: Due to these trades being out of the Euro Dollar system, the US is not able to control and foresee economic developments to sn increasing extent being extremely disadvantageous to the US farmers/producers.
@@Marine0317 8 Reasons Why Rome Fell Find out why one of history's most legendary empires finally came crashing down. 8. Weakening of the Roman legions For most of its history, Rome’s military was the envy of the ancient world. But during the decline, the makeup of the once mighty legions began to change. Unable to recruit enough soldiers from the Roman citizenry, emperors like Diocletian and Constantine began hiring foreign mercenaries to prop up their armies. The ranks of the legions eventually swelled with Germanic Goths and other barbarians, so much so that Romans began using the Latin word “barbarus” in place of “soldier.” While these Germanic soldiers of fortune proved to be fierce warriors, they also had little or no loyalty to the empire, and their power-hungry officers often turned against their Roman employers. In fact, many of the barbarians who sacked the city of Rome and brought down the Western Empire had earned their military stripes while serving in the Roman legions. History . Com
It is in China's interest to buy from the global south not just because it is cheaper but also mitigates the effects of trade wars. Plus they are also China's customers. Economic growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America means more customers for Chineese products. That will diversify the global consumer base and reduces their dependency on the West.
It makes sense to trade with them directly for the inputs to China's industrial economy. Why involve the US which offers neither products nor raw materials?
Of course it’s in China’s self-interest to trade with friendly nations. But in Buddhism, to help others is to help yourself, because we are all one. China is taking a leadership role, along with Russia, to trade with nations which have been ravaged by the west.
@@ZweiZwolf Give it time. Their internal market for that stuff is stupendously huge and they're sensing the danger right now so are building themselves up a bit first, check out how quickly their naval forces have grown! I think with their technical expertise as well as having a lot of control over the supply lines of a lot of the materials needed to build that stuff/the option to buy other cheap materials and energy from their friends in the big country to the North (as well as co-development/data-sharing, since that same neighbour is already also good at building some of that stuff and has a lot of relevant RECENT info on current systems being used against them from their experiences in Ukr), they could probably build cutting-edge ones for a fraction of the price of what European and American companies charge for that stuff.
The United States wants to decouple from China, and the European Union wants to reduce its dependence on China. There is no other way. China can only place more orders with Brazil, Russia and other countries that are willing to develop close cooperative and win-win trade relations with China, to help the United States and the European Union realize their desire to decouple and get rid of dependence as soon as possible.
Seriously, this is all just avoidable and unnecessary. The USA needs to reboot and build a government that looks after people rather than treat them as resources.
Enjoy your site..why we continue to keep our heads in the sand about the progress of China and the rising of the Global South is beyond the pale- Glen Hedley
I get what you're saying. For many here in the US there's a mental block hard to explain. We tout critical thinking as a corner stone of our education system but it is not manifested here. There seems to be varying degrees of blind patriotism, intrinsic or willful ignorance, and superiority complex at play and none of it is good for our country.
The news criculating in media say that China is on an economic decline, but I hear the opposite from you. Makes me think that inspite of many US companies shifting their production units to other countries like Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Thailand, etc, the chinese economy is still strong. Loos like the mainstream media is spreading misinformation by highlighting on the negatives.
just as happened to all modern economy, low tech industries are moving out of China while high tech industries are moving in. it happened in Japan, then Korea and Taiwan, now China. toys, household stuff and clothes go to Africa, Bangladesh and SEA. mid tech goes to Thailand and Vietnam. nothing goes to Philippines, reason is obvious.
Even if what you stated is true, can you sue and publicly penalize the mainstream media in your country for spreading misinformation about China? As far as fabricating stories that are untrue is concerned, there is some statute in the United Kingdom which prohibits and punishes falsification of news stories regarding domestic events within the UK, but when the reporting concerns events or matters of foreign countries there is no law against falsehood and/or deliberate lies. Hence it is totally legal to make false representation about any other countries. One of the classic textbook case is the famous, or rather infamous, BBC, whose most favorite task has for decades been doing all sorts of smear campaign against China. DW and Sky News are two other typical ones, almost like clones of the BBC. One would reckon that regimes like France, Federal Republic of Germany, Canada, Australia and the like pretty much follow the same legal framework in this regard.
Even low tech industries are finding it hard to move out of China despite lower wages elsewhere because they run into supply chain inefficiencies. Kevin did a segment in that a couple of months ago.
It's not just the US Government. The general attitude of "you WILL do business with us, on OUR terms" works ONLY until there's an alternative. At THAT moment, the last thing to want to do is *demand* compliance (coughtariffscough). Unless uSA learns pragmatism and humility VERY quickly, they are going down.
Pandemic (COVID), war in Ukraine, inflation and then famine are all parts of the plan. It has been systematically designed and executed to reduce the population. Read history books you would find it is not a coincidence.
As why China import of agriculture goods from US continues to decline in light of the increased demand I guess China sees US increasingly as an unreliable sourcing partner. It is not just beef, you see or will see the same trend for lobsters, soybeans, the list goes on. A few months ago I spent about two months roaming along the east coast of China from Xiamen in Fujian province all the way north to Qinhuangdao in Hebei province. There are over-abundance of restaurants in just about any place in China, and I could see just about 20% of them have something to do to the beef noodles or the like, for the remaining 80% of the restaurants at least the beef dishes are available among others. That explains the beef imports or demand from China, the protein consumption is steadily going up.
China should increase agricultural imports from the US. I remember reading about the food exports being cut off during a famine in China. That way, they can be blackmailed at the perfect opportunity.
The average Chinese person currently consumes more protein than the average American. Currently a lot of plant (eg. soy, nuts), but now they're farming pork, poultry, and seafood at an industrial scale. The only big protein import is beef, because cattle requires huge grazing pastures which China needs for grain and living.
I'm not sure what you comment suggests. Could you elaborate? I think your comment may be unfounded. If the United States were an ethno-state, it would not be in the current state it is. That's exactly why it isn't, because it's easier to manipulate in it's current state of disarray. No one with a brain thinks Europe is "better" with the migrants. The Diversity Dividend never arrived ... because it was never going to arrive. So if your comment is a juvenile attack on the US, great. "Good one!" If it's intended to communicate something more, then please tell us what that is.
It is sad but self inflicted. It is devolving into a third world country. Rampant crime; growing homeless; increasing deaths from drugs, alcohol, starvation, mental illness....on and on. And there is no end in sight. The damn politicians are blind and numb to the needs of the people. All the politicians care about are their re-elections. Their daily meals are paid with tax dollars (years ago the daily meal allowance was $200) while many citizens, including kids, are starving and begging. Breaks my heart! Damn the politicians. Demand term limits! That also applies to the so-called "Supreme" court justices! I see no turn around to the better for America anytime soon.
@ it’s a common phenomenon in valley setting. Very dreamy and heavenly like scenery, usually come at late night or at dawn. In America, they called it marine layers.
Thanks as always for the insightful analysis. Everyday I count myself lucky I was given the chance to do business with China and Chinese people 20 plus years ago. More people in Australia would do well to watch your content.
There will be bigger problems down the line. As these Midwest farmers are wiped out there will be downward pressure on land values. This will expose even more banks to losses in agricultural lending. This added on top of the several trillion of losses in commercial real estate and there could be more banks that fail. Then depending on how they allow the crisis to unfold will either kick the can down the road for a few more years allowing even more losses to accumulate or wipe out the middle class. Then watch the blowback in government and big businesses.
@ Yes but what that does to rural communities will be devastating. There needs to be a break up of the big banks and make them small. End commercial banks operating with investment banking. Implement Glass Steagall again. Even end cross state banking. Biggest mistake was allowing banks who can create money to lend on housing. Limit it to savings and loans institutions only. Since they can’t create money the Ponzi scheme of house flipping will end. These are all problems that can be solved domestically if the politicians were not so corrupt. So I expect it all to keep declining until nearly every one is poor and they revolt.
@@Quagma-b2i Only difference was the US gov back then could be the employer of last resort, providing really low-paying grunt jobs. People were willing to work then. Can you imagine that happening now with the current generation?
It's particularly problematic for American farmers because ag business is quite different from others, once the buyers change it changes for a long time. So the American grain export to China is replaced by Russia, It'll never come back, especially Russia has a tremendous edge in transportation cost. And the most devastating effect about losing is that China is the biggest and stablist customer (and the only large one available in the world) of American farmers. And it took a long time to set up the transport to China. And now all that investment expenditures are lost, no new customers emerged, there is no future for American farm export ！ It's the beginning of the end！All thanks to Donald Trump, he's the nail to the coffin ！
AND a much lower cost of living. AND better Transport infrastructure at ridiculously low price, which further reduces that cost of living. AND a safe environment. etc etc etc
I'm surprised Ireland doesn't export more food. You guys have a tiny population compared to your size. I don't know much about Ireland, but I heard property prices are sky high. My guess is that is holding you back.
Also money laundering, but for global corporations. Ireland thus has one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, roughly $100k USD annually, but you wouldn't guess it looking at the average Irishman.
If the world was richer, there'd be more demand for beef, and US farmers would have more business. But the US policy direction is not to make the world richer, it's increasingly to engage in sanctions and zero-sum trade wars, trying to make everyone poorer. They don't understand that the world economy is interconnected: if you make your neighbors poorer, you'll also end up poorer yourself. Meanwhile, China just built a massive port in Peru, with rail links to Brazil, which reduces freight costs between China and Brazil and other South American countries, facilitating trade and opening up new business opportunities in both directions.
Looks like China beat Trump to the punch. Instead of tariffs against US agriculture, China has chosen to buy elsewhere. Now it is Trump's turn, instead of tariffs, the US can buy Chinese imports elsewhere. Hint: Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia. Oh? Those are Chinese companies also.
What do you do when a major supplier continues to threaten you? You find friendlier sellers that don't sail warships and fly war planes close to your shorelines.
Without exports alot of crops will go to waste. But farmers will cut back production and amount harvested instead of letting a mass surplus just go to waste and rot. Less exports = less food produced = higher prices in the homeland
The main reason for the decline of farm product shipments from U.S. to China is the trade war that started in 2018. We apply a 25% tariff to almost everything coming from China, and they just apply 25% tariff on everything that comes from U.S.
I would go further. "usa" (Guess who?) starts making aggressive noises. "China" wonders "are they thinking of starting a conflict??" Their next logical conclusion is... "IF they DO start a conflict, do WE want to rely of ANY food source which they directly control?" Then "Do we have potential alternatives for ANY and ALL food?" Then "Should we extend this train of thought to raw materials and components they may use for WEAPONS which they may use AGAINST US?" And here we are.....
None of the reorientation of global trade was necessary. Unfortunate actions can have serious consequences. Perhaps the newly emerging paradigm is the real globalism and all will finally benefit.
😥😭😭 As a US taxpayer...we subsidize $40 BILLION in 2018 due to our farmers losing business from TRUMPS TARIFF! US FARMERS had awesome sales until Trump tariffs. I don't want to keep subsidizing FARMERS, especially when they can sell soybeans and wheat to CHINA! CHINA is now buying more from BARZIL, ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA, RUSSIA! LOST profits for our US farmers that will be hard to get back!
It is sad and disheartening to watch the bottom slowly and steadily fall out of the US economy. It is even sadder and more disheartening to see belligerent articles in widely read foreign policy journals written by US politicians advocating for the US to maintain its global “primacy” like the one Sen. Mitch McConnell wrote for the January/February 2025 issue of “Foreign Affairs.” Everyone should read this article: It will leave no doubt in your mind that US politicians intend to lead the United States into World War 3 in an effort to maintain US global economic and military hegemony.
Greetings, another fantastic analysis, we live in a world that is reorganizing itself, I think the losers will be those who do not adapt or who fold (forced to choose) to one side.
Just like auto sector, you have 10-15 years of boom time from China. Now that cycle is dipping and unfortunately they are all happening at the same time accelerated by political force that farmers have no control over.
Thank God, the decoupling is taking off finally. IMO, decoupling is stupid and not good for everyone, but I am getting tired of the constant bickerings and threats coming from the US politicians, and I hope that will be the end of it. As for me, I live outside the US, so I will continue shopping for geat values on aliexpress unaffected.
Trump has threatened the BRICS countries with a 100% tariff if they move away from the USD. However, Kevin has pointed out in this and past videos that many commodities trades are no longer visible to the US and the West. So, the incoming President would have difficulty determining which country he wants to retaliate against. The BRICS countries would do well to be discreet when doing business. It is foolish to incur Trump's wrath.
I am no economy expert. I don't understand why US food prices are going up? Since the demand for US grains and beef are going down due to China getting their supply from elsewhere won't that make US have an oversupply of such commodities? So following the logic of Supply n Demand if there is an oversupply won't that make prices go down instead of up? 🤨
Very recently China chose to cancel big shipments of agricultural products from USA and Australia and pay the fine, then they turned to Russia because it was cheaper still after a bumper harvest.
This is going straight for the jugular. US agricultural power is a phenomenon that is artificially created by massive state subsidies. Per farmer, the US has the highest rate of agricultural subsidies, averaging out to approximately $16,000 - 20,000 per year. EU, despite the media attention on Common Agricultural Policy, milk over capacity, etc, averages out to be approximately $7,500 - 9,500 per farmer. Japan, which focuses heavily on agricultural independence, gives farmers approximately $10,000, because it is a lonely job that no one wants to do. On average, each Chinese/Russian/Indian farmer receives subsidies of less than $400 per year. If they can out compete the US, it not just a contraction in their revenue, but a mean to force 'unprofitable' subsidies or even an increase in subsidies from the US. The game was fixed in the first place, but losing market share despite a thumb on the scale means you can never take that thumb off, or your existing agricultural industry which presumes subsidies will implode immediately. Another financial wound that the US must dump cash into and has low prospects of recovery.
OMG. Someone is actually accusing the US of providing subsidies. Does the EU know this? The EU only believes that China is the only country that subsidizes their industries ... lol
Just wondering if Americans know how hard is to find another big customer like China, prob NEVER. And don't expect India to fill China place, bc, India is in BRICS as well. Just don't bite the hands that feed you, common sense.
Morning Keven 🙏 Merry Christmas .. Poorer countries getting better farms, more efficient and trading between each other as economic friends .. why would any country trade with Washington Bully and the Pentagon Anti China movement .. Australia and NZ better learn to value China and think twice about waving the American flag of Global Dis Harmony and Sanctioning and Tarrif games .. 😀
It is US government putting them out of business. It is not about being more competitive. It is about government intervention to help them. They have nobody to blame but themselves and their government.
Good morning and thank you for this great news. I wish China could totally cut off all grains for meats import from the US and Canada. I will most happy to eat beef and grains from Brazil, Russia and elsewhere. Just not from US, Canada and other Anglo-saxon countries.
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Substack, for video transcript and direct links:
kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/chinas-new-trade-routes-from-brazil?r=4pow86
US should expect to do less and less business with China when it operates an anti-China policy. It makes no sense for China to give the farm business to an enemy when there are friends with the same farm products available.
and it's not just China.
ANY country affiliated with BRICS or Belt & Road will naturally gravitate to either China, or others in the collective.
USA will be LAST on the list.
I'm sure the US policy makers have yet to understand the consequences of their sanctions policies.
Enmity always came from the US rather than from China. Thus China never saw problem in buying food with the US, but lately it's been hard for the Chinese to ignore the growing animosity by the US
China refused to kowtow & kiss the ring & become a VASSAL, it’s been far too long, with the mindset of hegemonic arrogant & Hubris to think China would BUCKLE like .. NIPPON among others too…!! 🙄
China is derisking🤭😁
Brazil needs Solar Panels & EV's . China needs Beef & Grain . Brazil & China can be good trading partners .
China can send them ALL the economical panels which the US will TRY to price out of the market.
That will reduce the expense of the products Brazil builds in the factories China assists them with.
Just hope the rain forests are not victims to this partnership ❤
@@indibhart5731 Yeah, that's the big problem. I wonder how much investment China is putting into precision fermentation and cellular agriculture?
@rogerstarkey5390 the u.s. isn't competitive enough on solar panels. Brazil and China trade between themselves. So the u.s. can't manipulate price. The u.s. can pound sand.
@@indibhart5731 Like it has been with their partnership with Europe and the US? Lets surely hope not.
Hit 240k today. Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in September 2024…
I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Jihan Wu Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him here in Canada 🇨🇦 as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
Waking up every tenth of each month to £210,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to this same Jihan Wu🙌
Thank you, Donald! Cheers from Brazil!
I have no idea why you don't have more subscribers. Your videos are the best in keeping us updated on China. Thanks for that!
It's growing. I remember the number 75.000 not long ago, now 82.000
Because this channel is not anti China that's why😂
There are more "subscribers" who know what Kim Kardashian had for lunch yesterday. 😁
RUclips does not want people that think. They want and promote idiots.
@@stevenpreston5619 😂😂😂😂😂 true
Well! Some of Y'all wanted to stop dealing with China! You got it. We're happy to oblige.
They went from de-coupling, to de-risking, to, oh we are fuq.
@@FrankiePo89 China is de-risking today, decoupling tomorrow.
USA's wonderful market going to be so lonesome ... 😅
The hot swinging party happening at brics ?!🥳🤩
@@tkh2944 BRICS+ is already more economically powerful than the entire G7 group. As more join, that economic clout will increase further.
❤exactly
I work in cutting-edge Tech and it is painful, but necessary, to realize the my colleagues in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America can do the same work I do for 1/5th the cost. This doesn't mean that although I get paid 5x as much, my lifestyle is 5x better. Due to the fact that I live in the US Bay Area, my cost of living is5 - 10x as much. No bitterness, no recriminations -- that's just the reality. And please, don't say AI will save the US. I work in AI, and Chinese AI systems are as good or better.
Western media rarely talk about the fact that the Chinese PPP is the highest in the world.
Even when the GDP or average salary is "middle income", their money goes further.
@@hinnahinna-j9y I was traveling in China last month, the cost of food in a restaurant is about 20-25% of what I am paying in California.
@@fleetingfacetthat’s few and far between
@@fleetingfacet If the "Doge Team" gets their way, their intent on dismantling the work-at-home status may disappear soon.
@@fleetingfacetthat’s not easy if you work for a big corporation. Most of them demand that you’re somewhere in the USA.
One thing ppl have not paid attention to yet -- the Chinese farmers have gone to Ru (the area bordering China) and leased lots of vacant land and turned them into farms !!! The climate there is similar to Canada's, and they are very productive.
@@MetaView7 they are shutting down farms in the Netherland. The farmers there should lease land in Africa and send back products to the EU.
I’ve seen a special report, the retiring Russian farmers renting out to Chinese farmers & they’re building climate controlled green houses to grown cash crop for both markets, farmers see their land put to good use.. 👍
WIN WIN for those involved 😁
Half a million Chinese farmers in Russia
@@rogermoore8977yes, those Dutch farmers are forbidden from farming in ALL eu countries, basically forcing them to either South America or Russia.
Global warming is making Chinese farming in Siberia a lot more cost effective. The West will say China is colonizing lower Siberia without a single shot fired, but Russia and China are both winning, so the claim rings hollow.
I love the ending where he shows us different parts of China. I would love to go and stay a year just to explore the country and interact with its people.
And there other blogs about life in China across this platform and other social media platforms, even before the pandemic
Well.....if I was a leader of a nation and another nation made it their national policy to decouple from me, I would mitigate my risk exposure to that other nation by seeking alternative markets and limiting trade with the decoupling nation to the point where trade between my nation and that nation was as far from critical as one could get. This is simple common sense. How did the US think it was going to decouple from the biggest market in the world and not suffer any adverse consequences? I actually think the US has not even started to see the true cost of its trade war and decoupling with China. If it is bad now, let's revisit this conversation in another year or two to understand just how much worse it's going to get.
Honestly, I used to think these guys were kind of silly, but now I think their ideas are actually quite normal. On one hand, during the golden ages of Trump and Biden, America felt like it was at its strongest, with this illusion that it could do anything without consequences. This illusion has only grown stronger with time, especially as they've gotten older. On the other hand, no matter how bad things get in the US, it doesn't really seem to affect the political elites or Wall Street too much. Even if the whole country turned into a slum, they'd still find a way to live comfortably. And isn't it true that the more ridiculous something is, the more money you can make from it?
In China, one of our biggest criticisms of the US political system is that responsibility gets shuffled around so much that no one really takes it.
Only ordinary US citizens will suffer😢
If a country is threaten constantly, what do they expect from China.
Agree 100%.
One of the best channels out there. Be good!
Seems like decoupling from China which the US wanted so desperately was realizing very very soon 😂
In ANOTHER smart move....
China just expanded their Transit visa scheme From 144hrs (6 Days) to 240 hrs (10 days), increased the number of entry/ exit points from 39 to 60 AND reduced restrictions in areas previously considered "sensitive".
Yellen will soon complain China has overcapacity of foreign tourists into China. US will sanction Chinese tourism director.
the power of BRICS is steadily coming to be a reality.
I would prefer the term "Advantage" rather than "Power", since the collective is based on cooperation rather than control.....?
It will be very hard for US administration to keep up with china. They are not at par. Us leadership is still stuck at cold war era. The Chinese administration is superior and focused.
❤exactly
...and causing a big problem for the US: Due to these trades being out of the Euro Dollar system, the US is not able to control and foresee economic developments to sn increasing extent being extremely disadvantageous to the US farmers/producers.
Kevin, good report. My relatives are ranchers..it is not looking good.
Bagaimana jika kerabat kamu, kamu suruh bumuh diri !!! Democrasey = 💩💩 !!! 😂😂
Blackrock will gladly buy the family farm to for pennies on the dollar.
Which state. Show them this video.
Since 1945, the US is had endless wars young Americans dying around the world for military Industrial Complex
(Shareholders )
The U S is squandering young men, women resources.
Since 2000, the US has outsourced warfighting so non-Americans are dying for American benefit. The Ukraine is a good example.
@@ZweiZwolfthat’s how every Empire falls.
@@Marine0317
8 Reasons Why Rome Fell
Find out why one of history's most legendary empires finally came crashing down.
8. Weakening of the Roman legions
For most of its history, Rome’s military was the envy of the ancient world. But during the decline, the makeup of the once mighty legions began to change. Unable to recruit enough soldiers from the Roman citizenry, emperors like Diocletian and Constantine began hiring foreign mercenaries to prop up their armies. The ranks of the legions eventually swelled with Germanic Goths and other barbarians, so much so that Romans began using the Latin word “barbarus” in place of “soldier.”
While these Germanic soldiers of fortune proved to be fierce warriors, they also had little or no loyalty to the empire, and their power-hungry officers often turned against their Roman employers. In fact, many of the barbarians who sacked the city of Rome and brought down the Western Empire had earned their military stripes while serving in the Roman legions.
History . Com
Free Jimmy Lai 🇭🇰🇭🇰🇭🇰
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It is in China's interest to buy from the global south not just because it is cheaper but also mitigates the effects of trade wars.
Plus they are also China's customers. Economic growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America means more customers for Chineese products. That will diversify the global consumer base and reduces their dependency on the West.
It makes sense to trade with them directly for the inputs to China's industrial economy. Why involve the US which offers neither products nor raw materials?
Of course it’s in China’s self-interest to trade with friendly nations.
But in Buddhism, to help others is to help yourself, because we are all one. China is taking a leadership role, along with Russia, to trade with nations which have been ravaged by the west.
@@BritishBungler Paying the US Dollar tax via the SWIFT system delays the US bringing 'freedom and democracy'.
@@sciagurrato1831 I just wish China played a bigger role in the global arms market, helping countries buy the weapons they need to defend themselves.
@@ZweiZwolf
Give it time.
Their internal market for that stuff is stupendously huge and they're sensing the danger right now so are building themselves up a bit first, check out how quickly their naval forces have grown!
I think with their technical expertise as well as having a lot of control over the supply lines of a lot of the materials needed to build that stuff/the option to buy other cheap materials and energy from their friends in the big country to the North (as well as co-development/data-sharing, since that same neighbour is already also good at building some of that stuff and has a lot of relevant RECENT info on current systems being used against them from their experiences in Ukr), they could probably build cutting-edge ones for a fraction of the price of what European and American companies charge for that stuff.
Yellen will tell the American farmers ...."...YOU HAVE OVER CAPACITY!!!!!..."
❤hahaha
🎯🎯🎯💯💯💯
The United States wants to decouple from China, and the European Union wants to reduce its dependence on China. There is no other way. China can only place more orders with Brazil, Russia and other countries that are willing to develop close cooperative and win-win trade relations with China, to help the United States and the European Union realize their desire to decouple and get rid of dependence as soon as possible.
A rare win win win situation for all 3 sides 👍
Tell that to US farmers . They will be the collateral damage from this decoupling.
@@bldomainMaybe the US and European citizens should elect other people who represent them?
It's not up to China or Russia to cure the west of itself.
@@bldomainYou think they care about US farmers? Just look at how they watched John Deere screw them over with overpriced and late repairs.
China wants to de-risk from the US and EU. It's a win for China, the US, the EU, Russia, Brasil, ASEAN, and the BRI countries.
Very good!…keep it up…we love your content!!
Thanks for sharing and surfacing the truth. 👏👍
You do the best reports and including links makes your channel a gem.
You and Cyrus Jannsen are the best when it comes down to this topic thank you😊
The US media should treat China with respect
LOL。 it won’t happen
Not even in hundreds year, mission impossible
They are the "superior" being or at least they think so. That superiority complex are ingrained into their heads from young, thus their racist nature.
Disrespecting other countries and disrespecting dark people that's how elections are won!!!
In a world where every human treats other humans as humans, yes. When you need a boogeyman, well...
Seriously, this is all just avoidable and unnecessary. The USA needs to reboot and build a government that looks after people rather than treat them as resources.
Tax mules
US is an oligarchy on display right now. You pay, you get a place in the goverment.
capitalists will disagree
Impossible. It would break, like the USSR
@@akk9196 how and why?
Enjoy your site..why we continue to keep our heads in the sand about the progress of China and the rising of the Global South is beyond the pale- Glen Hedley
I get what you're saying. For many here in the US there's a mental block hard to explain. We tout critical thinking as a corner stone of our education system but it is not manifested here. There seems to be varying degrees of blind patriotism, intrinsic or willful ignorance, and superiority complex at play and none of it is good for our country.
@@orangetube1you are 100% correct
Thank you Kevin the world is really changing.
The World is an amazing place, thanks for the out takes Kevin.
The news criculating in media say that China is on an economic decline, but I hear the opposite from you. Makes me think that inspite of many US companies shifting their production units to other countries like Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Thailand, etc, the chinese economy is still strong. Loos like the mainstream media is spreading misinformation by highlighting on the negatives.
just as happened to all modern economy, low tech industries are moving out of China while high tech industries are moving in. it happened in Japan, then Korea and Taiwan, now China. toys, household stuff and clothes go to Africa, Bangladesh and SEA. mid tech goes to Thailand and Vietnam. nothing goes to Philippines, reason is obvious.
Even if what you stated is true, can you sue and publicly penalize the mainstream media in your country for spreading misinformation about China?
As far as fabricating stories that are untrue is concerned, there is some statute in the United Kingdom which prohibits and punishes falsification of news stories regarding domestic events within the UK, but when the reporting concerns events or matters of foreign countries there is no law against falsehood and/or deliberate lies. Hence it is totally legal to make false representation about any other countries. One of the classic textbook case is the famous, or rather infamous, BBC, whose most favorite task has for decades been doing all sorts of smear campaign against China. DW and Sky News are two other typical ones, almost like clones of the BBC.
One would reckon that regimes like France, Federal Republic of Germany, Canada, Australia and the like pretty much follow the same legal framework in this regard.
Most news media are biased and cherry pick.
Even low tech industries are finding it hard to move out of China despite lower wages elsewhere because they run into supply chain inefficiencies. Kevin did a segment in that a couple of months ago.
@@johntse8655 Can you please explain your last sentence?
I don't know much about the Philippines.
Putting farmers and ranchers out of business seems to be a priority inside of America also. Looks like a tag team to keep people from access to food.
It's not just the US Government.
The general attitude of "you WILL do business with us, on OUR terms" works ONLY until there's an alternative.
At THAT moment, the last thing to want to do is *demand* compliance (coughtariffscough).
Unless uSA learns pragmatism and humility VERY quickly, they are going down.
it sounds to me like population control
@@rogerstarkey5390 faster than the titanic
Pandemic (COVID), war in Ukraine, inflation and then famine are all parts of the plan. It has been systematically designed and executed to reduce the population. Read history books you would find it is not a coincidence.
Tariffs, that's the ticket! Let' s push all buyer countries into the arms of others. Great economic policies. YAY!
❤BRICS is the FUTURE. Cooperation is BETTER than conflict.
As why China import of agriculture goods from US continues to decline in light of the increased demand I guess China sees US increasingly as an unreliable sourcing partner. It is not just beef, you see or will see the same trend for lobsters, soybeans, the list goes on. A few months ago I spent about two months roaming along the east coast of China from Xiamen in Fujian province all the way north to Qinhuangdao in Hebei province. There are over-abundance of restaurants in just about any place in China, and I could see just about 20% of them have something to do to the beef noodles or the like, for the remaining 80% of the restaurants at least the beef dishes are available among others. That explains the beef imports or demand from China, the protein consumption is steadily going up.
China should increase agricultural imports from the US. I remember reading about the food exports being cut off during a famine in China. That way, they can be blackmailed at the perfect opportunity.
@@moustaphadiallo600China doesn’t need America
The average Chinese person currently consumes more protein than the average American. Currently a lot of plant (eg. soy, nuts), but now they're farming pork, poultry, and seafood at an industrial scale. The only big protein import is beef, because cattle requires huge grazing pastures which China needs for grain and living.
AmeriKKKa is screwed
Newlund will go down in history as the one who singlehandedly destroyed the hegemony.
Yes and all by its own citizens.
I'm not sure what you comment suggests. Could you elaborate?
I think your comment may be unfounded. If the United States were an ethno-state, it would not be in the current state it is. That's exactly why it isn't, because it's easier to manipulate in it's current state of disarray.
No one with a brain thinks Europe is "better" with the migrants. The Diversity Dividend never arrived ... because it was never going to arrive.
So if your comment is a juvenile attack on the US, great. "Good one!"
If it's intended to communicate something more, then please tell us what that is.
Europe twice
It is sad but self inflicted. It is devolving into a third world country. Rampant crime; growing homeless; increasing deaths from drugs, alcohol, starvation, mental illness....on and on. And there is no end in sight. The damn politicians are blind and numb to the needs of the people. All the politicians care about are their re-elections. Their daily meals are paid with tax dollars (years ago the daily meal allowance was $200) while many citizens, including kids, are starving and begging. Breaks my heart! Damn the politicians. Demand term limits! That also applies to the so-called "Supreme" court justices! I see no turn around to the better for America anytime soon.
in other words, game over here too...thank you
Thank you Kevin 😊😊😊
another brilliant video, thanks Kevin
WOW that scenic is unreal.
Wow, excellent post talk video. It’s so beautiful, thank you Kevin. Be good.
Sadly, some people will call that smog.
@ it’s a common phenomenon in valley setting. Very dreamy and heavenly like scenery, usually come at late night or at dawn. In America, they called it marine layers.
Another excellent reporting.
Russia must protect its ships.
This is what Americans continue voting for, what they think will make them great, seriously.
That is so true!!! (Regardless ppl from either side of the political spectrum)
As trump would say, China should not subsidize American farmers.
*OUCH* !!
Great reporting
Thanks!
Thanks as always for the insightful analysis. Everyday I count myself lucky I was given the chance to do business with China and Chinese people 20 plus years ago. More people in Australia would do well to watch your content.
There will be bigger problems down the line. As these Midwest farmers are wiped out there will be downward pressure on land values. This will expose even more banks to losses in agricultural lending. This added on top of the several trillion of losses in commercial real estate and there could be more banks that fail. Then depending on how they allow the crisis to unfold will either kick the can down the road for a few more years allowing even more losses to accumulate or wipe out the middle class. Then watch the blowback in government and big businesses.
To me, it looks like we are replaying the late 1920s - early 1930s. A lot of local banks will fail.
who doesn't love a good game of kick the can??
@ Yes but what that does to rural communities will be devastating. There needs to be a break up of the big banks and make them small. End commercial banks operating with investment banking. Implement Glass Steagall again. Even end cross state banking. Biggest mistake was allowing banks who can create money to lend on housing. Limit it to savings and loans institutions only. Since they can’t create money the Ponzi scheme of house flipping will end. These are all problems that can be solved domestically if the politicians were not so corrupt. So I expect it all to keep declining until nearly every one is poor and they revolt.
I can see the billionaires buying it all up.
@@Quagma-b2i Only difference was the US gov back then could be the employer of last resort, providing really low-paying grunt jobs. People were willing to work then. Can you imagine that happening now with the current generation?
It's particularly problematic for American farmers because ag business is quite different from others, once the buyers change it changes for a long time.
So the American grain export to China is replaced by Russia, It'll never come back, especially Russia has a tremendous edge in transportation cost.
And the most devastating effect about losing is that China is the biggest and stablist customer (and the only large one available in the world) of American farmers. And it took a long time to set up the transport to China.
And now all that investment expenditures are lost, no new customers emerged, there is no future for American farm export ！
It's the beginning of the end！All thanks to Donald Trump, he's the nail to the coffin ！
But but but Chinese have lower incomes...
All Americans can only think in GDP...PPP is the important figure
AND a much lower cost of living.
AND better Transport infrastructure at ridiculously low price, which further reduces that cost of living.
AND a safe environment.
etc
etc
etc
Living in Ireland all I see is an Over Capacity of empty fields!
Eh ~? What is that supposed to mean? 🤔
I'm surprised Ireland doesn't export more food. You guys have a tiny population compared to your size. I don't know much about Ireland, but I heard property prices are sky high. My guess is that is holding you back.
Ireland just too cold, agriculture in northwestern Europe has been uncompetitive since primitive times.
Also money laundering, but for global corporations. Ireland thus has one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, roughly $100k USD annually, but you wouldn't guess it looking at the average Irishman.
@@etbuch4873 No Farming!
So interesting . Thanks again for your efforts in making this channel . I look forward to your posts ,BE GOOD !!!!
If the world was richer, there'd be more demand for beef, and US farmers would have more business. But the US policy direction is not to make the world richer, it's increasingly to engage in sanctions and zero-sum trade wars, trying to make everyone poorer. They don't understand that the world economy is interconnected: if you make your neighbors poorer, you'll also end up poorer yourself. Meanwhile, China just built a massive port in Peru, with rail links to Brazil, which reduces freight costs between China and Brazil and other South American countries, facilitating trade and opening up new business opportunities in both directions.
thanks for your info 👍👍👍
Thank you for this again very good analysis revealing unusual background info. Greetings from Germany.
Looks like China beat Trump to the punch. Instead of tariffs against US agriculture, China has chosen to buy elsewhere. Now it is Trump's turn, instead of tariffs, the US can buy Chinese imports elsewhere. Hint: Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia. Oh? Those are Chinese companies also.
meanwhile, food prices in Canada and the USA are rising like Costco's Stocks price
China is showing US and the farmers what decoupling really means. 😮
Chips' ban inadvertently 'banned' beef and agricultural products too.
What do you do when a major supplier continues to threaten you? You find friendlier sellers that don't sail warships and fly war planes close to your shorelines.
This is great news for Americans and Canadian,farmers will have to adjust and produce foods that locals can afford.
2020 eggs $1.50 /dozen
2021 eggs $3.75 /dozen
2022 and 2023 eggs $4.50 /dozen
2024 eggs $5.00 /dozen
This California USA
Can't even raise chickens.
Economics 101 must have been taught by an optimist.
What foods are those?
Without exports alot of crops will go to waste. But farmers will cut back production and amount harvested instead of letting a mass surplus just go to waste and rot. Less exports = less food produced = higher prices in the homeland
I learned several things I didn't know from this video
lol, that happens to me every video
The main reason for the decline of farm product shipments from U.S. to China is the trade war that started in 2018. We apply a 25% tariff to almost everything coming from China, and they just apply 25% tariff on everything that comes from U.S.
I would go further.
"usa" (Guess who?) starts making aggressive noises.
"China" wonders "are they thinking of starting a conflict??"
Their next logical conclusion is...
"IF they DO start a conflict, do WE want to rely of ANY food source which they directly control?"
Then
"Do we have potential alternatives for ANY and ALL food?"
Then
"Should we extend this train of thought to raw materials and components they may use for WEAPONS which they may use AGAINST US?"
And here we are.....
Surprised to learn all this 🌞
None of the reorientation of global trade was necessary. Unfortunate actions can have serious consequences. Perhaps the newly emerging paradigm is the real globalism and all will finally benefit.
My friend told me it's necessary because China is communist. Sigh.
Like you short succinct commentaries. Thank you Kevin ❤👍👏.
😥😭😭 As a US taxpayer...we subsidize $40 BILLION in 2018 due to our farmers losing business from TRUMPS TARIFF! US FARMERS had awesome sales until Trump tariffs. I don't want to keep subsidizing FARMERS, especially when they can sell soybeans and wheat to CHINA! CHINA is now buying more from BARZIL, ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA, RUSSIA! LOST profits for our US farmers that will be hard to get back!
It is sad and disheartening to watch the bottom slowly and steadily fall out of the US economy. It is even sadder and more disheartening to see belligerent articles in widely read foreign policy journals written by US politicians advocating for the US to maintain its global “primacy” like the one Sen. Mitch McConnell wrote for the January/February 2025 issue of “Foreign Affairs.”
Everyone should read this article: It will leave no doubt in your mind that US politicians intend to lead the United States into World War 3 in an effort to maintain US global economic and military hegemony.
Exactly 💯
Greetings, another fantastic analysis, we live in a world that is reorganizing itself, I think the losers will be those who do not adapt or who fold (forced to choose) to one side.
Europe is phasing out farmland. So in the future US farmers can export to the EU.
Privilege and Arrogance Rules The US and Europe, they need to wake up..
US arrogance of China must be their sole purchaser is still Stone Age clubbing 😂😂😂
Just like auto sector, you have 10-15 years of boom time from China. Now that cycle is dipping and unfortunately they are all happening at the same time accelerated by political force that farmers have no control over.
Stop reading western media, it is making you misinformed, disinformed and ignorant.
Whom do you do business with the country that wants to contain and destroy you or willing to work together for mutal benefits .
Thanks
Funny the West think BRIC is a joke.
Yet BRICS is the one laughing all the way to the bank
For those knowledgeable, they are scared as shit. You people just don't know anything because the MSM doesn't tell you anything.
Thank God, the decoupling is taking off finally. IMO, decoupling is stupid and not good for everyone, but I am getting tired of the constant bickerings and threats coming from the US politicians, and I hope that will be the end of it. As for me, I live outside the US, so I will continue shopping for geat values on aliexpress unaffected.
Trump has threatened the BRICS countries with a 100% tariff if they move away from the USD. However, Kevin has pointed out in this and past videos that many commodities trades are no longer visible to the US and the West. So, the incoming President would have difficulty determining which country he wants to retaliate against. The BRICS countries would do well to be discreet when doing business. It is foolish to incur Trump's wrath.
Good point
Trump ain't got any wrath. He have bragging rights though.
@FrankiePo89 what's he bragging about?
big t ain't going to do sh... he's a big talker
@@onetwothreefour-s1n
Mexico is going to pay for the walls.
Exporting countries are going to pay for the tariffs.
The USA has a BSE problem
in the WH !!!
beautiful scenery 👍❤
Good report
Prices are falling everywhere but in the good old U.S. of A.
uass has a giant over capacity problem, lol.
I am no economy expert. I don't understand why US food prices are going up? Since the demand for US grains and beef are going down due to China getting their supply from elsewhere won't that make US have an oversupply of such commodities? So following the logic of Supply n Demand if there is an oversupply won't that make prices go down instead of up? 🤨
🤔👍
Bilateral trade makes good sense. It cuts out middle men.
Always appreciate your insight. Keep it comming.
Very recently China chose to cancel big shipments of agricultural products from USA and Australia and pay the fine, then they turned to Russia because it was cheaper still after a bumper harvest.
All.that matters most to me is that Chinese farm equiptment is user repairable. God bless their hearts
Good.
Thank you for this information.
This is going straight for the jugular. US agricultural power is a phenomenon that is artificially created by massive state subsidies.
Per farmer, the US has the highest rate of agricultural subsidies, averaging out to approximately $16,000 - 20,000 per year.
EU, despite the media attention on Common Agricultural Policy, milk over capacity, etc, averages out to be approximately $7,500 - 9,500 per farmer.
Japan, which focuses heavily on agricultural independence, gives farmers approximately $10,000, because it is a lonely job that no one wants to do.
On average, each Chinese/Russian/Indian farmer receives subsidies of less than $400 per year. If they can out compete the US, it not just a contraction in their revenue, but a mean to force 'unprofitable' subsidies or even an increase in subsidies from the US. The game was fixed in the first place, but losing market share despite a thumb on the scale means you can never take that thumb off, or your existing agricultural industry which presumes subsidies will implode immediately.
Another financial wound that the US must dump cash into and has low prospects of recovery.
OMG. Someone is actually accusing the US of providing subsidies.
Does the EU know this? The EU only believes that China is the only country that subsidizes their industries ... lol
If global food prices is going down why are grocery and food prices going up in America? It doesn't make sense.
Gotta keep the GDP looking good
we gave American farmers 28B when Trump’s tariffs backfired - looks like we’re gonna be bailing out everyone at some point
"bailing out" with what?
@@rogerstarkey5390 The Fed will print money to pass to them via DT
Cách tiếp cận của kênh này là tư duy bằng dữ liệu . Kênh hay . Nhưng cần phải có chút kiến thức thì mới thấy được cái hay của nó .
Just wondering if Americans know how hard is to find another big customer like China, prob NEVER. And don't expect India to fill China place, bc, India is in BRICS as well. Just don't bite the hands that feed you, common sense.
Morning Keven 🙏 Merry Christmas .. Poorer countries getting better farms, more efficient and trading between each other as economic friends .. why would any country trade with Washington Bully and the Pentagon Anti China movement .. Australia and NZ better learn to value China and think twice about waving the American flag of Global Dis Harmony and Sanctioning and Tarrif games .. 😀
It is US government putting them out of business. It is not about being more competitive. It is about government intervention to help them. They have nobody to blame but themselves and their government.
Beef prices in North America are still rising. Likely due to inflation
US farmers suffering reduced exports, therefore they may be jacking up prices locally to recoup some losses.
Due to profit-taking.
Corporate greed
Demand is shrinking abroad so cost to produce will be high ... = price up
@lamkunonn9026 u.s. tariffs. Not demand. Pay attention.
Very well spoken n information vblog. Your message 'BE GOOD' are meant for Trumpet and warmongers at home 😂
Good morning and thank you for this great news. I wish China could totally cut off all grains for meats import from the US and Canada. I will most happy to eat beef and grains from Brazil, Russia and elsewhere. Just not from US, Canada and other Anglo-saxon countries.