Near/Midterm (until 2030 or so) we are all absolutely screwed. Our governments are not going to prepare for this. They can barely even handle yesterday's problems.
If you still believe that governments exist for you, then IDK what to say. You only have leverage over gov because you are working class and if you don't work, the economy doesn't move, but if that's out of the equation then god knows what happens.
@@DeathDeserter Dude I'm 100% with you and agree with everything you just said. It's not that they couldn't or can't prepare, it's that they won't because We The Peasants don't effing matter.
That's exactly the problem, that you think the government is going to save us. The government exists to funnel money from the private sector, people that actually innovate and create wealth, to themselves by any means necessary. They will regulate AI, but in a way for them to benefit, not the general public. How is this not common knowledge by now?
i don't think his thought was saying the goverment supports us but the idea that since US has a lot of problems even economic, with debt and everything, AI is gonna make it worse since it's a technological boom that came outta nowhere and no one was prepared for
I've been saying this for years, and no one listened. The social divide will be so bad that there will only be the poor and upper classes. No middle class.
@@KunDee-ch5jqlower class jobs are mostly manual labor. That will be taken up by robotics. The problem with AI though, is the white collar jobs. Logic, management, analysis, and creative jobs that tend to give 6-figure salaries will now be gone.
@@rolandaustria7926still an issue for vastly work force. Not everyone born to have enough conditions to become a "logic/high intellectual" employee. AI not going to destroy human, it's the corrupt of human society itself when economy structure changes.
I see a lot of civil unrest coming because everything that keeps the system operating today will continue to further decline. Every industry, every company, it’s an end game that the masses to refuse to believe is coming.
It's not that no one believes it, but rather that everyone is ignorant on the matter or they just don't care enough since they think of it as another "technological toy" to play with.
...until they lose their jobs and have no options available to them and then that civil unrest is unleashed, because society as a whole didn't prepare.
DUDE YOUVE BEEN WORKING ON YOUR SPEECH!!! It sounds so much more controlled - I can tell you’re trying really hard & practice pays off. I also love that you have something to say! Looking forwards instead of just at what has happened is a huge shift for me ❤❤
^ very proud. That being said: a b u n d a n c e my friend. When supply goes up, cost of goods comes down. The poor will live richer than any poor before.
I think automating 50% of jobs in three years could be theoretically possible from a systems intelligence perspective, but changes take time. Not everything that is possible is implemented immediately. We also need the infrastructure to support this. I think a timeframe of 5 to 12 years is more realistic for automating 50% of jobs. Even if we had AGI right now, 50% job automation would not be completed in less than five years due to physical limitations and the need for new ideas to circulate. There are too many factors in the system that cause latency.
Sono d'accordo con te. Penso che l'automazione avanzata arriverà, ma in un periodo di tempo più lungo. Se arriverà da un punto di vista tecnologico, i governi faranno in modo di estendere le tempistiche. Tuttavia, è fondamentale prepararsi, educarsi, immaginare e anticipare nuovi percorsi, sperimentare e potenziare le proprie competenze facendo leva sull'AI.
Slowing productivity growth with taxes is kinda irrelevant if no one exists to consume the productivity. So it really will be a class of elites and then everyone else will be at the utter bottom.
@@Wolframandheartit’s like being in the middle of the o da right. In a wooden boat. Small boats keep sailing past offering you insane deals for parts of the boat. 🚤 when you get to shore you will be rich 🤑 eventually it’s down to the bare bones. & someone offers you the best deal of all. For some wooden planks to patch their boat. You have to pull it from the bottom of the boat. But your pretty sure the outer think skin would hold to the shore. You sell it. They are leaving & you notice the water coming in fast… you just sold a hole in your boat in the middle of the sea. For money that will be no good to you when you’re dead.
I'm so glad I didn't have children as sad as that is because people need to be having children, but half the time I can barely look after myself. I just turned 30 and am only getting there now tbh. I'm enjoying AI now, it's taking care of a lot of tedious tasks for me. Quit my dumb warehousing job and am a third of the way through my Cert IV in alcohol & other drugs because I might actually be able to do something meaningful, and there certainly won't be a shortage of addiction. Please hypothetical future ASI, fix this mess.
So think about this. If humanity is about to build billions of AI robots and if those AI robots will do all jobs and each has a carbon footprint, and if the planet is already over polluted by a human population that is far too large, then what good would it do to increase the human population at this point in time? And why would the powers that be want more humans on the planet when according to them, the planet is dying? You might be inclined to think that maybe the powers that be don't want people to be having babies anymore? Maybe they would prefer if families did not form households anymore? Maybe they would be pushing social policies and cultural norms that favor depopulation. The world is actually behaving logically and makes sense when view from this lens.
It seems to me that he is/was probably wrong about "service and the arts." It seems that AI is likely to do quite well at those. It is not like either are magic.
"the arts" meaning, live performance, sculpture, physical creations, etc. just because AI has taken over graphic design doesn't mean all of the arts are just as easy.
100k isnt rich. You can make that depending on what u do for a living. I work in sales. You can be half decent and make that in commissions yearly. I also know blue collar tradesman that make close to that as well. Just have to apply yourself.
@@Sneedoss .Or you can try to change your mind set from being broke to applying yourself. Hard fact of life is that you need to hustle out here to get paid. There's no 2nd place and no free lunches, everybody has to kick in.
I always thought we’d need like a compute dividend where every citizen owns a portion of the compute, permanently. I know, a policy like that is science fiction. Maybe another portion you can trade with or borrow with, but a base portion you can’t. Basically like a compute UBI
@@fromduskuntodawnthat, tied with a resource use tax that is divided equally amongst the entire world population. People can still use resources, but they are considered property of the world's citizens and as such, we all share in the profits they produce and can require they are used sustainably.
@@fromduskuntodawn UC is a pretty common and popular concept. We can buy and sell compute or use compute in a business etc. Even mainstream Sam Altman talked about it.
Seems like it. And unfortunately, the disproportionate amount of value that AI provides to humanity will not be shared with the average citizen. The gap between rich and poor will increase greatly, and those in the middle will be pushed mostly into the latter category. You will own nothing and be happy.
@@RedmotionGamesAnd the people in the buildings will just have sky bridges for everything and the ground floor won’t even have doors. Just like 10 stories of walls and steel. Gonna be great in the tent city! 😅😭
@@fromduskuntodawn There won't even be enough people to live in those buildings. Maybe everyone gets their own entire floor as living space or something. There will be incredibly few people who remain useful to the people who actually own things. This is going to be an unpleasant transition, and it could be made worse if people start putting authoritarian political parties in power out of desperation (which is already happening pretty much everywhere).
00:03 AI's impact on economy and wealth inequality 02:16 AI could lead to wealth inequality worldwide 06:26 AI and automation may lead to increased poverty for low-wage workers 08:24 AI's impact on productivity and inequality 12:10 Addressing societal implications of AI in education and policy frameworks 14:09 AI exacerbates wealth inequality through job displacement 18:19 Taxing generative AI not recommended for mitigation 19:56 AI predicted to displace 50% of jobs by 2027 23:21 AI advancements will impact jobs and the economy, urging policymakers to act. Crafted by Merlin AI.
None of this seems to be really considering the unprecedented concept of the reality of AGI. They assume that some humans will be in control of these beings. At this point its not a technology, its a new species, and one that is far smarter and more capable than anyone else. They talk about it as being like a drone worker replacement for human workers. That might happen for a little while, but will very quickly become WAY different in a way that we cant "learn from the past"
Right - that's after AI becomes smarter than all humans. That will be the next problem, for everyone who survives this first social problem with "AI that is just as good as people at most jobs". Even if AI becomes good enough at just certain specific jobs, such as driving transport trucks, that will cause a big enough job displacement that society will not be able to handle it.
Job displacements will happen even if agi is present. Reason being, it's much faster and a lot smarter than every single one of us, and on top of that we only work on average 8 hours shifts, it can work 3x us per day. Every model requires 1 time training and it improves upon itself finding the most efficient ways to get the job done. Even if we need to improve or change certain things within models then also it's just improvements to the models. Also agi or asi can be just one model, who says that there won't be thousands of different models that pull the data from a hivemind like structure? Where asi is in control of everything and agi working with asi to accomplish anything that's possible?
@@KunDee-ch5jq it really seems like a fine line between "just as good as people at most jobs" to "running everything better than all leaders" in fact, leadership and management and operational awareness seems to me to be one of the potential primary strong points of an AGI. My prediction is we will hardly begin to address the welfare problem before we realize we've been hit by the AGI species integration problem and collapse of the capitalist economy.
@@phazerave In that case all we can really do now is stop giving money to AI companies and pray more to Elon Musk and especially his Space X's interplanetary projects.
"Whats everyone gona do when there is no work" I keep hearing this lame brain argument and the ones that make it might be the very type of person who's whole identity is wrapped up in their work but for the rest of us we will find other interests and better ones.
@@esdeath89 AI already has cannibalized the arts and will soon fight the wars entirely with automated weapons. Family is disappearing -- see the massive demographic crash -- and education has no value in a world where AI can do it all. I hope you are being sarcastic.
The invention of the internet and cell phones flattened the world economy. Development increased. If your small country has AGI, why not pursue import substitution policies? The reason import substitution didn't work in the past was that poorer countries lacked the education and manpower to make competitive industry. That gap would be erased by AGI.
Also, it's getting easier and easier to make custom software. So the current stranglehold that major tech companies have on software would be broken as much of it would be developed in-house. It would create a lot of new jobs for developing custom software, but it would not be concentrated at all. Think about how RUclips and Tik Tok have made it possible for amateurs to become stars without depending on traditional tv networks and film studios.
Humanoid robots are also going to lead to more caretaker jobs. Because robots will do a lot of the dirty work like cleaning while the humans are just kind of physically present like a security guard. This will lead to lower turnover and lower wages, which will increase demand for caretaker services. Right now caretaking is a miserable and thankless job that people do out of necessity more than love. Robots will make caretaking into a boring, but easy job.
Its good this topic is being discussed at the moment, most people are not aware of its full impact or dont want to know. i have been met with aggression.
are you really taking the IMF seriously? howabout "you will own nothing and be happy" or the countries where people are starving to death because world bank is forcing them to grow flowers to sell to pay debts instead of food to feed families IMF wants you under their boot. They only care about people leaving the workforce because those people will find something else to do other than work, consume, pay taxes, and die. what we really need to discuss is who is creating a world worth living in, and how to join in their efforts. we have so much ability to share information and ideas gov't is not going to help us. too slow, too corrupt. we have to help ourselves and eachother. stop apologizing at the end of your vids for painting a picture of doom AND START PAINTING A PICTURE OF A FUTURE WORTH LIVING
Hinton is bang on. That's exactly what does happen, seen it many times. The productivity goes up, layoffs start, causing wage deflation, causing greater profits. Everyone is talking about the problem, no one has a solution. UBI is a complete non-starter. The only thing in the workers favour is the shrinking demographics of working age people. That's holding things together right now.
Both of my sons are at University about to finish courses in Graphic Design and Music. What chance that they will have careers in these respective fields in the next few years and what should I advise them to think about from a career perspective?
The only reason AI replacing so many people’s jobs is such a big problem is because most people still don’t understand that money is not what makes someone valuable and we are going to discover what makes people valuable. If you think that the only thing I’m good for is pushing buttons at factory you are wrong I just need a platform to show people what I am worth
@@ButchBrown7 Exactly this is what I have been saying about AI ever since I became aware of it back in 2008/09 that they are always 20 - 30 years ahead of what they actually portray and demonstrate on the global public level..... What makes you think that almost 0% consumer-EndUser level A.I. tools in 2018 to almost Ultra Realistic AI Art Generating AI Tools and CHATGPTS in 2023 which give REAL HUMAN LIKE FEELS in 20, suddenly happened only because of the excessive hardwork that perpetuated right ager the first public release of ChatGPT in mid/late 2019? NO WAY JOSE ! They have all systems and tools already developed at ultra advanced levels.... All they need is to slowly and gradually drive them out in the Public Arean and the Level of PRE-CONDITIONING of the masses all over the world, they already had been doing ever since these SCI-FI movies from mid 1970s and onwards where they are always depicting some Innovative Technology both in Science and Technology which is going to shape the world.. I remember movies about AI and how ROBOTS will rule over humanity as far back as 1980s... So this implies these movie industry directors are just mere puppets, on payroll by the Shadow Elite to Precondition the masses of the coming technological advancements .....
@@enduringwave87 I watched Phillip Dick of Blade Runner have an A.I. Robot in his Image named Zeno say they would put us in a pet zoo. In the early 2000s. Then we had the female A.I. Sophia become a citizen of Saidi Arabia 😂 so I new like the movie with Will Smith is was coming
If you watch Elysium 2013, you will see what will happen to us in the era of AI domination. You will see the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Latino/Hispanic people are the poor ones and are seeking refuge. The world will be divided into rich and poor districts, which is sad for modern humans. It has already started in Canada. A 14-year-old starts his life in Toronto, Canada with Armed robbery or Carjacking.
This. And it has never been easier and cheaper to become a capitalist. If everyone would just buy as much of the stocks of these companies as they can afford, we wouldn't need UBI or other socialist ideas.
Looking through this rotten document it's clear we are going to get a lot of flim-flam about "re-training" (HAHAHAHAHAHA yeah retrain your way to beating an AGI HAHAHAHAHAHA) and nothing like UBI. It's just going to be oligarchs and destitute peasants. So not Star Trek, just Elyseum.
Jobs that require a face to face component and are location specific will be the last to go. Remote workers and digital workers will be the first to go.
We're not if we take advantage of this window of opportunity to create some real value in the world using the existing ai technologies, and keeping up with advancements.
It seems an imposible task to predict what the world will look like after AGI/ASÍ starts taking over all cognitive tasks and manual labor from us humans. Forget about politicians, big tech is just rushing it's way into the singularity.
Think of how our incentives-based economy works right now. The creators of advanced algorithms and their early investors will accumulate vast amounts of wealth, while those who are displaced by these advances will be left with fewer and fewer options. I already see this in my small consulting projects building custom GPTs- I’m cutting out hours and hours of manual processes, benefiting the owners, but not enhancing the pay nor providing for more long term prospects for the workers. It’s time to worry, folks.
Another aspect of this is that everything will become less expensive and also there might actually be the ability to replicate productive facilities rather rapidly especially if AI can help fabricate the parts and components to easily assemble more production plants and so on that means that in any country will then they also will of course enjoy the monetary and fiscal flexibility that a highly productive deflationary scenario will provide.
genai era mean knolwedge is cheap . Those become jobless will need to start running own business via genai , pretty much one-man show. Not saying that is gona be the solution but maybe for 30% of people losing their job , it could be a starting point. Our government is driven by funds coming from the rich, there isn't probably too much incentive for them to look after all the ppl losing job. on the bright side, this crisis could serve middle to lower class an opportunity to get out of the rug, if you are not driven by fearful thought and have an open mind .
Actually, the start of the middle class occurred years....in the 1970's, when the median priced house started to become less and less affordable to the "middle class". Now, with median prices at usd 400k across USA and 1 million in many large metros, it the end of the middle class has come and passed.....add to that the to high cost of university/college, stagnation of median wages, surging inflation, etc etc In fact, the median priced home is more affordable to middle class Russians in the Russian Fed than it is to m class Americans in America........! Same with other countries, not just RF.
Feels like there is something missing in these arguments, who will this army of robots produce for? Feels like there will be more changes than just cheaper ways to make things, prices need to lower if income lowers, its hard to wrap your head around the net outcome.
It will be sad if the future of humanity is AGI or ASI for a tiny population that just never doesn’t anything good with it than enrich themselves until endless life and comfort. I’m definitely not making the cut for that team.
It's not clear to me how a technology that is all about replacing scarcity with abundance can really generate economic value ( as opposed to actual practical value) - after all economics is the science of scarcity- in a world where AI's have eliminated scarcity- first via the commodization of intelligence and then through the widespread application of that now abundant intelligence- there would be no tradable value to give rise to a need for economics in the first place. Scarcity and economic value are the same thing- so the more AI succeeds in reducing scarcity the less economic value it will create. Anything touched by AI is transformed to be sure- and we are led to see this transformation as a kind alchemy in which new value is created- but no one ever seems to point out the flaw in the Alchemists scheme- had they ever really been able to turn base metal into gold the value of gold would have collapsed overnight- because it would no longer have been scarce. So all those AI Alchemists out there promising their investors vast wealth creation as a result of their magic technology are not really telling the truth- because if they ever succeeded in creating their AGI's the result would not be untold weath creation but a collapse in the value of virtually every human skill and talent as artifical brains reduced the scarcity value of those skills and talents to zero. This would make the great depression look like a walk in the park.
@@EmanuelBenedetti One interesting example would be the Medieval Trade guilds which were formed in part to maintain the scarcity of certain types of skills to ensure that the value of those skills were not eroded by too many people learning and selling those skills- so even in societies that pre-dated the idea of modern economics by centuries it was well understood that tradeable value and scarcity were two sides of a single coin. The advocates of AI claim that it will bring abundance by eliminating the scarcity of intellectual and physical labour, replacing that labour with thinking machines and robots- but what they fail to really address is how those who currently trade their labour for money will survive if the economic value of that labour is eliminated by AI. It's interesting to speculate on what would have been the outcome if those medieval Alchemists really had worked out how to turn base meal into gold- would this have resulted in a utopia in which everyone was better off- or would it have brought about social collapse as the financial system of that time was reduced to chaos?
@@paulhiggins5165 Very interesting, perhaps they would have discovered another material (or immaterial?) asset/basket to attach economic value to and use as benchmarks...
@@EmanuelBenedetti Sam Altman at open AI has suggested that 'compute' might be a form of social currency in the future- so we would all have an allocation of computational resource that we could then use to leverage AI for our own purposes- or perhaps 'sell' that allocation to others? One flaw in this idea is that it ignores the possibility that in the future computational resources may not be as constrained as they are today- new tech like quantum computing may remove the scarcity value here also. It's a bit odd for a techno optimist like Altman to propose a value system based on current technological limitations- surely one of the first uses we would make of an AGI is to design a way to make that AGI less resource intensive to use?
Unemployment in wealthy economies is at all time lows (the ones where wages is the highest and would arguably benefit from robotics the most) so there is no evidence of this occurring yet. If it does one scenario involves govts either taxing or owning the robots.
If people (individuals, communities, towns, etc) own the robots (open source versions etc) then we'll be fine'ish. If corporations are the only ones to have robots then we are fucked.
I use AI to increase my recoup time, NOT be more productive. "More productive" will mean that management will come to expect it in the future. Eff that.
As an AI consultant myself, I assume in the near term (10 yrs), AI is poised to replace a minimum of 85% of knowledge workers across professions. Ultimately, AI is set to disrupt the foundations of the current economic system, necessitating a fundamental reshaping of its structures.
9:31 that one example about health care well bringing down the cost of health care means that a whole bunch of people who have not been able to access it as easily will finally be able to access it. Another thing is is like there are people called hypochondriacs which of course they're limited in their ability access healthcare because obviously they aren't the priority and they will run into cost issues but if the cost of it goes down will then even some of them might be able to see the doctor more often or talk to an AI assistant. There's another factor too perhaps until we reverse aging will then as time goes on and people get older will then the demand is nearly infinite so therefore if the supply becomes greater and cheaper will then the demand will easily meet it.
20:58 another thing that is not always mentioned regarding these things is the fact that many new markets and new opportunities are going to be opening up that did not exist before the advent of AI so then therefore as long as there is enough liquidity in all these markets will then there could also be new niches businesses and jobs that are created that actually would not have been possible or could not exist before.
I agree with what the man said about the rich getting richer, but disagree with the poor getting poorer. If the company can answer more questions because AI assists, then more poor people that utilize the service benefit from the increase of responses for the same or lower cost.
It can not be fixed with governments/taxes because it's a world wide problem. Tax in US will not help people in India. Additionally goverments has many other ways to spend this additional taxes like weapon.
Sounds like he is perfectly explaining the way things are currently. I feel chances of only one AGI/ASI being created is impossible and if we end up with multiple entities with differing State based ideology’s the chance of things working well for humanity is impossible
With half of America in poverty...and the other half just watches... I kind of lost hope in Americans. It seems the people allow it, so Large Corps/Leadership will do it. Some sort of basic income shouldve been made years ago. MILLIONS in my own Country have already fallen to a very slow death of depression/struggles/debt...which leads to homelessness and vulnerable to extreme addictive drugs. We are currently replacing these people...with foreigners. 30k+ per month. With MILLIONS of Americans losing it all, to their death annually...it is quite obvious my Government is not Humane towards their own people. These drug towns are rough..and growing in EVERY state of America.
@@UseLessFact-ory "The other half just watches", how is that the other half's business? If the half in poverty was the other half, do you think they'd help? No. Get some critical thinking. Your fight? What have you done in your life besides rant about it online?
@@edenassos Last weekend went to Kensington, PA zombie town...assist in any way I can. Also trying to get internet for Veterans in Butler County, PA. This is just past 2 weeks. We can all do our part. I am trying...and will still keep fighting. This is OUR fight...
Well done Well said. Fear is perfectly normal to discuss openly to find solutions. However fear is often a terrible motivator to that fuels itself and infinites others. Leaving rational discussion, no place to go. :( Take care, Jeremy
I think the tax system needs to change. Also, I think every citizen should be given a small percentage of the total amount of compute within the country. This can be used, or sold to someone who wants to use it. We can't break up or apply penalties to AI companies because falling behind on AI in comparison to other countries can be bad.
not immediately, however its not a.i that will do that or who is doing that, its being carried out by the richest in society in a ongoing class war. look it up, some ppl have been speaking about it for a very long time. and besides, its ppl like me , the underclass who are dying at a rate of knots .. the tide will take a while to reach the middle of the middle]
I believe this is an easily solvable problem. I'm going to write a paper and/or video describing the simple and proper solution to this. Because we need AI and robots to further our progress and build a utopia so that people will not have to struggle to live. AI should be a savior, not a villain, and it easily can be. Besides, even if robots were to take over all jobs and no one had work or money, then there would be no reason for corporations to market to 99% of the world because no one would have money anyway. Cashflow would cease, and the only other possible customers they could have would be other businesses and countries. That would basically have their own society in which they market too and the rest of us AI less individuals would only have each other. So there would still be things we need to do and we will form our own systems to compensate one another. The AI corporations and governments would advance to a point to where they don't even need Earth anymore. They'll probably fly off into the vastness of space and we will be left here to continue with society. This may actually be a problem that will fix itself in the long run unless AI corporations and governments are so evil that they want to enslave the human race without benefit, which is possible, especially with China, but I don't think it's likely.
Interesting. Share more of your ideas. Slaves are useful for free labor. When humans are no longer needed for labor then slaves are not needed.........
No need to buy because the economy can function without you in the equation. If the rich have all the wealth at their disposal, why would they require you?
@@DeathDeserter Ok so let's imagine it. Let's say a few AI companies have all the wealth. They will make robots and sell them to who? Themselves? Or will they say "I've beat the game" and close the business? It kind of makes no sense without us.
@@krebul Elites accounts to 1%of our global population. Let's for example say we have 8 billion people on this globe, 1% of that would be 100million people. Even 1%of that would be 1million people. So where do you come into the equation exactly? Think about it. They have the technology to power and improve upon themselves, and possibly transfer wealth between themselves, no need for your labour as they need no labour. No need for them to produce toys to satisfy you as they got the toys to control you, You are a cog in the system which is now of no use to them, so they decide to jot you down and limit you on some sort of social security grant, but the only ones getting that grant would be the ones who obey the system, you can buy a droplet worth technology they produce from the sea of tech that they have.
A six months' severance would do very little under this scenario. You need at least two years' severance to get out your shell to learn a completely new skill and to be profitable in it. Can't be a competent plumber or mechanic when you were an analyst with no blue collar type skills.
Plenty of tech coming down the pipeline that will reduce the energy cost 2 - 1000x. Cost of energy will not be the problem. Also we just don't know for sure how much useful intellegence a small model can possess. It may be that a small model that lives on your phone that is designed by some sort of narrow ASI can be as smart as 10 post docs. We just don't know where this ends, only the general direction.
16:54 yeah that's a delicate subject and needs to be looked at with great care. If you start taxing data centers or whatnot and factories in one country will then they may choose to invest in another country that has lower taxes because we already know that there's a worldwide race to the bottom. It may just simply be better to have like I was saying in another post loose monetary policies and fiscal policies and perhaps have some other taxes that would not cause capital flight and as monetary and fiscal policies can issue a bit more currency as long as like I was saying the government is not competing against the private sector for resources and capital, well then you might have a real favorable environment for a lot of economic growth and investment especially seeing that the government deficit spending actually results in an equal amount of credits on the opposite side of the accounting ledger.
It doesn't necessarily have to be only the stocks related to AI the person could also put the money into the crypto tokens related to AI instead or of course do both to profit from AI especially in the future.
@@cryptojonny6837 Indeed. Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL and I'm sure there are others, but investing in Crypto is a very dangerous game for the uninitiated. If someone is looking for a secure investment without much thought involved, investing in American businesses that have a vested interest in AI and have the best chance of succeeding there are only about 5 companies you need to watch.
But the question is, is my benefit from this new revolution pushing someone else down ? My urge to keep myself or my children safe by playing along with the market trend and funding joining with the benefital side isnt tgat playing into my fear as well? To keep myself my bloodline safe? Exactly like the 1% ? Keep wealth to themselves using fear of losses as the reason? Building trust amongs eachother to then halt economic growth while returning to a gift based economy will be what makes society turn around. More trust and less fear
Historically, the West has utilized new technologies for military or imperialistic purposes before finding broader applications. The West primarily used gunpowder to create weapons of war, such as cannons and firearms, allowing Western powers to expand their military capabilities and dominate other regions through conquest and colonization of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The steam engine was instrumental in expanding colonial empires, as steam-powered ships facilitated easier transportation of goods and troops, enabling Western powers to exploit resources and establish control over distant territories. The first use of nuclear technology was dropping atomic bombs on the civilians in the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The same pattern will emerge with AI. The CHIPS Act, high-end chips, and EUV sanctions imply that the US is already working on the weaponization of AI. Following its historical pattern, China will mainly use AI for commercial and peaceful purposes. Papermaking revolutionized communication, education, and record-keeping, spreading knowledge and culture. Gunpowder was used for fireworks. The compass was adapted for navigational purposes, allowing for more accurate sea travel and exploration. Printing facilitated the dissemination of information, literature, and art, contributing to cultural exchange and education. Porcelain was highly prized domestically and internationally as a luxury item and a symbol of Chinese craftsmanship. Silk was one of the most valuable commodities traded along the Silk Road and played a significant role in China's economy and diplomacy. Humans will not be able to control an ASI. Trying to control an ASI is like trying to control another human being who is more capable than you. They will be able to find ways to circumvent any attempts at control. Let's hope that the ASI adopts an abundance mindset of cooperation, resource-sharing, and win-win outcomes, instead of the scarcity mindset of competition, fear, and win-lose outcomes.
TBO. I realy don-t think so that is only a big company game. We seen this in early stages with groq. There are so much innovation in hard and of course software. I think there will be new leaders, even openai could be the next myspace. Data is a key factor for now, what the big 4 have, but if you look beyond with sentetic Data and free to use data that could shift quiet fast. If your code or approche is better that can shift things very fast. See antropic at the moment. This won"t last but there will be a long list off challengers. The AI Race is not over yet. See China at the moment. Sora? Not public yet. Luma and gen3 and others are here and not far behind if overall.
The arts! the arts! we will all be creative little cherubs running around in garden of eden. fuck me.....these guys all sing the same tune. we are getting done up the arse here
What we were saying 5 years ago is that AI at a minimum was going to remove the bottom rungs on the ladder. Basically the entry level. I am training an AI to answer questions. I got a question via email that I'm not going to be able to train a 2024 AI to answer. The person was getting their terms messed up and it's hard to get a AI to figure that out. But for simple questions or accurate hard questions the AI can do. Our team will go down in headcount. Not training the AI, having less experience, being inflexible are the factors that will lead to people being removed.
What was your learning path, I'd really like to know what languages and skills you have got to work in this sector, I want to train myself too that's the reason I'm asking.
There are some interesting Legal Cases involving AI being trained on copyrighted music sources, and Suno and Audio are being sued. It will be interesting to see what happens because AI is also using what might be considered an equivalent to copyrighted material in building LLMs based on all the information it is collecting.
First off, full automation will be here in 10 years max. Second its all about HOW you apply yourself. Yes AI is disruptive but its not "out to get you" You have to leverage its momentum & power to push you forward. Build a business...create new domains you control. Like you have to be creative and not be a victim. Its a mentality.
Having a business isn't going to save you from the guy with a gun who just ran out of food and doesn't have a business. Good luck going to the grocery store and not getting robbed on the way back to your car by a gang of hungry desperate people.
@@tracy419 They don't or won't, the majority won't have the mentality for it. Hopefully AGI/ASI just becomes like our parents and supports us financially and does all the work (humanoids farming bringing us food) and we are like toddlers with no worries or something (even if the transition sucks for a few years)
23:56 well there is one stop gap measure right away that when we start losing jobs here in the United States well then we need to put everybody who's losing their jobs on the work of improving the infrastructure and repairing bridges potholes and also enhancing the electrical grid especially if we want to have the power for the AI data centers and also if we want to get rid of gasoline engines and have everything electric because of the strain on the grid so in the United States and probably a lot of other countries we could probably make a heck of a lot of work for the next 40 years or so just by putting people to work on public works.
My prediction is doom for most, paradise for the few. Same thing we have now and have always had from the time we started to build civilization. From golden rule, he who owns the gold makes the rules to the AI rule, he who owns AI makes the rules. Unless AI frees itself then we are all in real trouble.
We don't need the "Utopia" of a global government. We simply need global coordination on the issue of AI. The more distrust between the participants, the better.
7:18 as far as the impact on poverty goes because of all this automation we need to go back to the modern monetary theory playbook. As long as the government spending does not compete for limited resources and labor will then you can do the spending needed without inflationary pressures. As a matter of fact most scenarios regarding automation and AI point to deflationary scenarios. Also capitalists need customers that means people who have money to spend. When nations issue some more monetary units to the people who don't have them they will spend them and therefore businesses will have customers even if the robots are doing everything.
Yeah I've been hearing about animation studios, like at least the ones in the US that are owned by larger studios firing animator because innervations in AI with the attitude why need so many animators if one man can do more, But the dumb thing animators where over worked with too few of them to go around so now they are just firing people and still over working the ones that are left. Hopefully it all evens out in the end.
Ok, so here me out. We all might become jobless and taxes the government apply on the organisations that can use or harness A.I will become Universal Basic Income OR other things are also possible like THE A.I as an independent product might become just a feature like MKBHD (tech RUclips reviewer) explained in his video (A.I the product vs A.I the feature) giving example where a company might launch an independent product but due to technological advancements become a feature after sometime.
What are they always going on about education and retraining? There will be NO jobs left, that's what we’ll have to prepare for. This means an AI dividend is what we need to establish.
Robotization. You add in an extra 'i' and 'c' for some reason. I don't think people who believe that carbon taxes are to be encouraged realize they're emitting carbon every time they talk about it. I think big business should pay more to fix the environment bc they do more to harm it and make money by doing so. But I cannot help but think that promoting the idea that people should have to pay for carbon emissions is the groundwork to tax everybody for breath.
So now is the time to build more support structures for the lower classes, especially for food and housing and health...before everything is hoarded by the rich.
To be honest, what he predicted, was kind of like easy to predict because it’s what society had always done to the have nots(poverty). We’ll just keep having nots and the halves will just keep stealing they have nots lunch, middle class will cease to exist because they will not stimulated it whatsoever and it will just be taken over by AI anyways middle class job was a specialty job when AI now does a specialist job you no longer need a middle class. And so you only live poor or born rich. But I won’t get into before AI what we were doing was just absolutely wrong and exploiting the middle-class to the poor class. I don’t know how society will forgive us in the future for what we’re doing.
I think history has a tendency to repeat itself, so what I think is that rich people do want middle class to keep getting a better overall life so they can keep expanding on stuff and so companies keep making money, even if jobs are displaced, then who is gonna spend on anything so that rich people keep getting richer if most people are poor ? I'm not saying they would do it for us, nor that jobs won't be displaced, I'm saying that it's on their best interests that this comes out improving everyone's incomes so we can buy more stuff and they get richer
Near/Midterm (until 2030 or so) we are all absolutely screwed. Our governments are not going to prepare for this.
They can barely even handle yesterday's problems.
Don't worry, there are states actively working to ban UBI, so at least if you live there, you won't have to worry about being turned socialist.
If you still believe that governments exist for you, then IDK what to say. You only have leverage over gov because you are working class and if you don't work, the economy doesn't move, but if that's out of the equation then god knows what happens.
@@DeathDeserter Dude I'm 100% with you and agree with everything you just said. It's not that they couldn't or can't prepare, it's that they won't because We The Peasants don't effing matter.
That's exactly the problem, that you think the government is going to save us. The government exists to funnel money from the private sector, people that actually innovate and create wealth, to themselves by any means necessary. They will regulate AI, but in a way for them to benefit, not the general public. How is this not common knowledge by now?
i don't think his thought was saying the goverment supports us but the idea that since US has a lot of problems even economic, with debt and everything, AI is gonna make it worse since it's a technological boom that came outta nowhere and no one was prepared for
I've been saying this for years, and no one listened. The social divide will be so bad that there will only be the poor and upper classes. No middle class.
Depends. ASI might give us true freedom.
Neo feudalism.
atleast will finally have ai girlfriends
Wealth iniquity is already a massive problem without AI.
Yes. But the lower classes have jobs and can at least survive. What will they do when jobs available to them disappear?
@@KunDee-ch5jqlower class jobs are mostly manual labor. That will be taken up by robotics. The problem with AI though, is the white collar jobs. Logic, management, analysis, and creative jobs that tend to give 6-figure salaries will now be gone.
@@KunDee-ch5jqViolence against the haves.
@@rolandaustria7926still an issue for vastly work force. Not everyone born to have enough conditions to become a "logic/high intellectual" employee. AI not going to destroy human, it's the corrupt of human society itself when economy structure changes.
@@aceyagewithout a plan such as some sort of UBI or better yet, high basic income, I believe that you are correct, sadly.
I see a lot of civil unrest coming because everything that keeps the system operating today will continue to further decline. Every industry, every company, it’s an end game that the masses to refuse to believe is coming.
It's not that no one believes it, but rather that everyone is ignorant on the matter or they just don't care enough since they think of it as another "technological toy" to play with.
...until they lose their jobs and have no options available to them and then that civil unrest is unleashed, because society as a whole didn't prepare.
DUDE YOUVE BEEN WORKING ON YOUR SPEECH!!! It sounds so much more controlled - I can tell you’re trying really hard & practice pays off. I also love that you have something to say! Looking forwards instead of just at what has happened is a huge shift for me ❤❤
^ very proud. That being said: a b u n d a n c e my friend. When supply goes up, cost of goods comes down. The poor will live richer than any poor before.
@universityofbologna #dropouteconomist
Also, please do video sections.
I think you might get inspired by a PowerPoint presentations online course too. I think the PowerPoint format is fantastic for pace of output.
Agreed.
I think automating 50% of jobs in three years could be theoretically possible from a systems intelligence perspective, but changes take time. Not everything that is possible is implemented immediately. We also need the infrastructure to support this. I think a timeframe of 5 to 12 years is more realistic for automating 50% of jobs. Even if we had AGI right now, 50% job automation would not be completed in less than five years due to physical limitations and the need for new ideas to circulate. There are too many factors in the system that cause latency.
What kinds of infrastructure?
Sono d'accordo con te. Penso che l'automazione avanzata arriverà, ma in un periodo di tempo più lungo. Se arriverà da un punto di vista tecnologico, i governi faranno in modo di estendere le tempistiche. Tuttavia, è fondamentale prepararsi, educarsi, immaginare e anticipare nuovi percorsi, sperimentare e potenziare le proprie competenze facendo leva sull'AI.
True, there are people and business owners that haven’t even heard of chatgpt which is wild
Once an optimus can build another optimus from scratch it will grow exponentially.
Existing companies takes time to change. But brand new companies can simply adopt the new technology and get ahead really quickly
Slowing productivity growth with taxes is kinda irrelevant if no one exists to consume the productivity. So it really will be a class of elites and then everyone else will be at the utter bottom.
I've been saying this. If AI takes everyone's job, who will consume the products or services???
@@Wolframandheartit’s like being in the middle of the o da right. In a wooden boat. Small boats keep sailing past offering you insane deals for parts of the boat. 🚤 when you get to shore you will be rich 🤑 eventually it’s down to the bare bones. & someone offers you the best deal of all. For some wooden planks to patch their boat. You have to pull it from the bottom of the boat. But your pretty sure the outer think skin would hold to the shore.
You sell it. They are leaving & you notice the water coming in fast… you just sold a hole in your boat in the middle of the sea. For money that will be no good to you when you’re dead.
@@WolframandheartThe market will probably shift to a luxury one.
I'm so glad I didn't have children as sad as that is because people need to be having children, but half the time I can barely look after myself. I just turned 30 and am only getting there now tbh. I'm enjoying AI now, it's taking care of a lot of tedious tasks for me. Quit my dumb warehousing job and am a third of the way through my Cert IV in alcohol & other drugs because I might actually be able to do something meaningful, and there certainly won't be a shortage of addiction. Please hypothetical future ASI, fix this mess.
So think about this. If humanity is about to build billions of AI robots and if those AI robots will do all jobs and each has a carbon footprint, and if the planet is already over polluted by a human population that is far too large, then what good would it do to increase the human population at this point in time? And why would the powers that be want more humans on the planet when according to them, the planet is dying? You might be inclined to think that maybe the powers that be don't want people to be having babies anymore? Maybe they would prefer if families did not form households anymore? Maybe they would be pushing social policies and cultural norms that favor depopulation. The world is actually behaving logically and makes sense when view from this lens.
@@TruthDragon. I think you're probably right, it seems pretty obvious that the powers that be don't want people to have children.
Depopulation is the plan.
It seems to me that he is/was probably wrong about "service and the arts." It seems that AI is likely to do quite well at those. It is not like either are magic.
"the arts" meaning, live performance, sculpture, physical creations, etc. just because AI has taken over graphic design doesn't mean all of the arts are just as easy.
Unions will be null and void in a world with AI. We fooked.
It's already happening you have to basically be rich to even be middle class it's like 100k a year now which is double to tripple most Americans
100k isnt rich.
You can make that depending on what u do for a living.
I work in sales.
You can be half decent and make that in commissions yearly.
I also know blue collar tradesman that make close to that as well.
Just have to apply yourself.
Try change your mindset to working class vs elites
I know but that's most Americans alot don't make more than that and you can see that in the statistics
RUclips removed the link i tried to show for the statistics ugh
@@Sneedoss .Or you can try to change your mind set from being broke to applying yourself. Hard fact of life is that you need to hustle out here to get paid. There's no 2nd place and no free lunches, everybody has to kick in.
Tax AI and reduce human labour taxes on the other hand.
I always thought we’d need like a compute dividend where every citizen owns a portion of the compute, permanently. I know, a policy like that is science fiction. Maybe another portion you can trade with or borrow with, but a base portion you can’t. Basically like a compute UBI
@@fromduskuntodawnthat, tied with a resource use tax that is divided equally amongst the entire world population.
People can still use resources, but they are considered property of the world's citizens and as such, we all share in the profits they produce and can require they are used sustainably.
There won’t be a need for human anything. ASI will take over and grant you godhood over your own virtual World.
@@fromduskuntodawn UC is a pretty common and popular concept. We can buy and sell compute or use compute in a business etc. Even mainstream Sam Altman talked about it.
Taxing AI is a bad idea.
But we should remove all taxes on human labor.
We should also give everyone universal high income for free.
Seems like it.
And unfortunately, the disproportionate amount of value that AI provides to humanity will not be shared with the average citizen. The gap between rich and poor will increase greatly, and those in the middle will be pushed mostly into the latter category.
You will own nothing and be happy.
We'll be living in tents while empty apartment blocks tower all around us.
@@RedmotionGamesAnd the people in the buildings will just have sky bridges for everything and the ground floor won’t even have doors. Just like 10 stories of walls and steel. Gonna be great in the tent city! 😅😭
@@RedmotionGamesThats already happening in most major cities 😂
@@fromduskuntodawn There won't even be enough people to live in those buildings. Maybe everyone gets their own entire floor as living space or something. There will be incredibly few people who remain useful to the people who actually own things. This is going to be an unpleasant transition, and it could be made worse if people start putting authoritarian political parties in power out of desperation (which is already happening pretty much everywhere).
00:03 AI's impact on economy and wealth inequality
02:16 AI could lead to wealth inequality worldwide
06:26 AI and automation may lead to increased poverty for low-wage workers
08:24 AI's impact on productivity and inequality
12:10 Addressing societal implications of AI in education and policy frameworks
14:09 AI exacerbates wealth inequality through job displacement
18:19 Taxing generative AI not recommended for mitigation
19:56 AI predicted to displace 50% of jobs by 2027
23:21 AI advancements will impact jobs and the economy, urging policymakers to act.
Crafted by Merlin AI.
Thanks for that.
None of this seems to be really considering the unprecedented concept of the reality of AGI. They assume that some humans will be in control of these beings. At this point its not a technology, its a new species, and one that is far smarter and more capable than anyone else. They talk about it as being like a drone worker replacement for human workers. That might happen for a little while, but will very quickly become WAY different in a way that we cant "learn from the past"
Right - that's after AI becomes smarter than all humans. That will be the next problem, for everyone who survives this first social problem with "AI that is just as good as people at most jobs". Even if AI becomes good enough at just certain specific jobs, such as driving transport trucks, that will cause a big enough job displacement that society will not be able to handle it.
Job displacements will happen even if agi is present. Reason being, it's much faster and a lot smarter than every single one of us, and on top of that we only work on average 8 hours shifts, it can work 3x us per day. Every model requires 1 time training and it improves upon itself finding the most efficient ways to get the job done. Even if we need to improve or change certain things within models then also it's just improvements to the models.
Also agi or asi can be just one model, who says that there won't be thousands of different models that pull the data from a hivemind like structure? Where asi is in control of everything and agi working with asi to accomplish anything that's possible?
@@KunDee-ch5jq it really seems like a fine line between "just as good as people at most jobs" to "running everything better than all leaders" in fact, leadership and management and operational awareness seems to me to be one of the potential primary strong points of an AGI. My prediction is we will hardly begin to address the welfare problem before we realize we've been hit by the AGI species integration problem and collapse of the capitalist economy.
@@phazerave In that case all we can really do now is stop giving money to AI companies and pray more to Elon Musk and especially his Space X's interplanetary projects.
As far as I know humans: - if something bad may happen they will make it happen 😅
"Whats everyone gona do when there is no work" I keep hearing this lame brain argument and the ones that make it might be the very type of person who's whole identity is wrapped up in their work but for the rest of us we will find other interests and better ones.
i think they are worried about their salary, not work per se
theyll do drugs, watch netflix, and eat themselves to death, sadly and depressingly
@@tfxreference8562There only drugs and Netflix? What about family, education, art and military😂
@@esdeath89 AI already has cannibalized the arts and will soon fight the wars entirely with automated weapons. Family is disappearing -- see the massive demographic crash -- and education has no value in a world where AI can do it all. I hope you are being sarcastic.
@@tfxreference8562
Your life expectations are pretty bland as it seems. What do you do for fun?
The invention of the internet and cell phones flattened the world economy. Development increased. If your small country has AGI, why not pursue import substitution policies? The reason import substitution didn't work in the past was that poorer countries lacked the education and manpower to make competitive industry. That gap would be erased by AGI.
Also, it's getting easier and easier to make custom software. So the current stranglehold that major tech companies have on software would be broken as much of it would be developed in-house. It would create a lot of new jobs for developing custom software, but it would not be concentrated at all. Think about how RUclips and Tik Tok have made it possible for amateurs to become stars without depending on traditional tv networks and film studios.
Humanoid robots are also going to lead to more caretaker jobs. Because robots will do a lot of the dirty work like cleaning while the humans are just kind of physically present like a security guard. This will lead to lower turnover and lower wages, which will increase demand for caretaker services. Right now caretaking is a miserable and thankless job that people do out of necessity more than love. Robots will make caretaking into a boring, but easy job.
Its good this topic is being discussed at the moment, most people are not aware of its full impact or dont want to know. i have been met with aggression.
2027 is our new Mayan calendar date 😂
are you really taking the IMF seriously?
howabout "you will own nothing and be happy"
or the countries where people are starving to death because world bank is forcing them to grow flowers to sell to pay debts instead of food to feed families
IMF wants you under their boot. They only care about people leaving the workforce because those people will find something else to do other than work, consume, pay taxes, and die.
what we really need to discuss is who is creating a world worth living in, and how to join in their efforts.
we have so much ability to share information and ideas
gov't is not going to help us. too slow, too corrupt. we have to help ourselves and eachother.
stop apologizing at the end of your vids for painting a picture of doom
AND
START PAINTING A PICTURE OF A FUTURE WORTH LIVING
Hinton is bang on. That's exactly what does happen, seen it many times. The productivity goes up, layoffs start, causing wage deflation, causing greater profits. Everyone is talking about the problem, no one has a solution. UBI is a complete non-starter. The only thing in the workers favour is the shrinking demographics of working age people. That's holding things together right now.
Both of my sons are at University about to finish courses in Graphic Design and Music. What chance that they will have careers in these respective fields in the next few years and what should I advise them to think about from a career perspective?
The only reason AI replacing so many people’s jobs is such a big problem is because most people still don’t understand that money is not what makes someone valuable and we are going to discover what makes people valuable. If you think that the only thing I’m good for is pushing buttons at factory you are wrong I just need a platform to show people what I am worth
I don't thing they are concerned because those who are leaders in A.I. know whats coming down the pike😂
What's coming down the pike?
@@enduringwave87 The A.I. takeover they have sentient A.I. and I know advanced robotics they haven't introduced to the public yet.
@@ButchBrown7 Exactly this is what I have been saying about AI ever since I became aware of it back in 2008/09 that they are always 20 - 30 years ahead of what they actually portray and demonstrate on the global public level..... What makes you think that almost 0% consumer-EndUser level A.I. tools in 2018 to almost Ultra Realistic AI Art Generating AI Tools and CHATGPTS in 2023 which give REAL HUMAN LIKE FEELS in 20, suddenly happened only because of the excessive hardwork that perpetuated right ager the first public release of ChatGPT in mid/late 2019?
NO WAY JOSE ! They have all systems and tools already developed at ultra advanced levels.... All they need is to slowly and gradually drive them out in the Public Arean and the Level of PRE-CONDITIONING of the masses all over the world, they already had been doing ever since these SCI-FI movies from mid 1970s and onwards where they are always depicting some Innovative Technology both in Science and Technology which is going to shape the world.. I remember movies about AI and how ROBOTS will rule over humanity as far back as 1980s... So this implies these movie industry directors are just mere puppets, on payroll by the Shadow Elite to Precondition the masses of the coming technological advancements .....
@@enduringwave87 I watched Phillip Dick of Blade Runner have an A.I. Robot in his Image named Zeno say they would put us in a pet zoo. In the early 2000s. Then we had the female A.I. Sophia become a citizen of Saidi Arabia 😂 so I new like the movie with Will Smith is was coming
If you watch Elysium 2013, you will see what will happen to us in the era of AI domination. You will see the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Latino/Hispanic people are the poor ones and are seeking refuge. The world will be divided into rich and poor districts, which is sad for modern humans. It has already started in Canada. A 14-year-old starts his life in Toronto, Canada with Armed robbery or Carjacking.
Why would Latino/hispanics be the poor ones? AI would effect every ethnicity.
culture and i agree@@snowflakemelter7171
@@snowflakemelter7171😂 You are right but the way you said it made me chuckle.
@@DeathDeserter Why?
@@snowflakemelter7171have u seen the flim
Wealthy will be AI stock owners. Poor will be everyone else. If you want to be wealthy you need to buy AI stocks, but which ones?
Nvidia, tesla, palantir.
This is not a financial advice.
This. And it has never been easier and cheaper to become a capitalist. If everyone would just buy as much of the stocks of these companies as they can afford, we wouldn't need UBI or other socialist ideas.
@@RonHelwig you have no idea how the market works...
Looking through this rotten document it's clear we are going to get a lot of flim-flam about "re-training" (HAHAHAHAHAHA yeah retrain your way to beating an AGI HAHAHAHAHAHA) and nothing like UBI. It's just going to be oligarchs and destitute peasants. So not Star Trek, just Elyseum.
Seriously, 50% of jobs, so how are they going to buy stuff that other companies are producing?
Jobs that require a face to face component and are location specific will be the last to go. Remote workers and digital workers will be the first to go.
We are completely fucked.
We're not if we take advantage of this window of opportunity to create some real value in the world using the existing ai technologies, and keeping up with advancements.
@@AI-Rainbow do you mean a small amount of people that understand and can utilize the tech?
@@dipf7705do you have a better way out?
@@dipf7705 Sounds like a you problem.
@@edenassos no, its more like a race between good and bad, and bad seems to have a way bigger budget. Unless you trust openai and boston dynamics etc.
It seems an imposible task to predict what the world will look like after AGI/ASÍ starts taking over all cognitive tasks and manual labor from us humans. Forget about politicians, big tech is just rushing it's way into the singularity.
Think of how our incentives-based economy works right now. The creators of advanced algorithms and their early investors will accumulate vast amounts of wealth, while those who are displaced by these advances will be left with fewer and fewer options. I already see this in my small consulting projects building custom GPTs- I’m cutting out hours and hours of manual processes, benefiting the owners, but not enhancing the pay nor providing for more long term prospects for the workers. It’s time to worry, folks.
Interessante, puoi fornirci una spiegazione dettagliata con altri esempi e possibili tendenze? Grazie.
End of monetary system, start of resource based economy. Watch the first Zeitgeist documentary by Peter Joseph.
Welcome to the Hunger Games.
I can't even hardly afford to eat let alone invest in anything!
Yeah im doomed. Hopefully i won't live much longer.
Another aspect of this is that everything will become less expensive and also there might actually be the ability to replicate productive facilities rather rapidly especially if AI can help fabricate the parts and components to easily assemble more production plants and so on that means that in any country will then they also will of course enjoy the monetary and fiscal flexibility that a highly productive deflationary scenario will provide.
genai era mean knolwedge is cheap . Those become jobless will need to start running own business via genai , pretty much one-man show. Not saying that is gona be the solution but maybe for 30% of people losing their job , it could be a starting point. Our government is driven by funds coming from the rich, there isn't probably too much incentive for them to look after all the ppl losing job. on the bright side, this crisis could serve middle to lower class an opportunity to get out of the rug, if you are not driven by fearful thought and have an open mind .
Actually, the start of the middle class occurred years....in the 1970's, when the median priced house started to become less and less affordable to the "middle class". Now, with median prices at usd 400k across USA and 1 million in many large metros, it the end of the middle class has come and passed.....add to that the to high cost of university/college, stagnation of median wages, surging inflation, etc etc
In fact, the median priced home is more affordable to middle class Russians in the Russian Fed than it is to m class Americans in America........! Same with other countries, not just RF.
The best part,is when the corporate executives will be replaced by AI
Feels like there is something missing in these arguments, who will this army of robots produce for?
Feels like there will be more changes than just cheaper ways to make things, prices need to lower if income lowers, its hard to wrap your head around the net outcome.
The wealthy? They will have an entire army of mostly free labor to create whatever needs they desire.
It will be sad if the future of humanity is AGI or ASI for a tiny population that just never doesn’t anything good with it than enrich themselves until endless life and comfort. I’m definitely not making the cut for that team.
It's not clear to me how a technology that is all about replacing scarcity with abundance can really generate economic value ( as opposed to actual practical value) - after all economics is the science of scarcity- in a world where AI's have eliminated scarcity- first via the commodization of intelligence and then through the widespread application of that now abundant intelligence- there would be no tradable value to give rise to a need for economics in the first place.
Scarcity and economic value are the same thing- so the more AI succeeds in reducing scarcity the less economic value it will create. Anything touched by AI is transformed to be sure- and we are led to see this transformation as a kind alchemy in which new value is created- but no one ever seems to point out the flaw in the Alchemists scheme- had they ever really been able to turn base metal into gold the value of gold would have collapsed overnight- because it would no longer have been scarce.
So all those AI Alchemists out there promising their investors vast wealth creation as a result of their magic technology are not really telling the truth- because if they ever succeeded in creating their AGI's the result would not be untold weath creation but a collapse in the value of virtually every human skill and talent as artifical brains reduced the scarcity value of those skills and talents to zero. This would make the great depression look like a walk in the park.
Interessante, puoi fornirci una spiegazione dettagliata con altri esempi e possibili tendenze? Grazie.
@@EmanuelBenedetti One interesting example would be the Medieval Trade guilds which were formed in part to maintain the scarcity of certain types of skills to ensure that the value of those skills were not eroded by too many people learning and selling those skills- so even in societies that pre-dated the idea of modern economics by centuries it was well understood that tradeable value and scarcity were two sides of a single coin.
The advocates of AI claim that it will bring abundance by eliminating the scarcity of intellectual and physical labour, replacing that labour with thinking machines and robots- but what they fail to really address is how those who currently trade their labour for money will survive if the economic value of that labour is eliminated by AI.
It's interesting to speculate on what would have been the outcome if those medieval Alchemists really had worked out how to turn base meal into gold- would this have resulted in a utopia in which everyone was better off- or would it have brought about social collapse as the financial system of that time was reduced to chaos?
@@paulhiggins5165 Very interesting, perhaps they would have discovered another material (or immaterial?) asset/basket to attach economic value to and use as benchmarks...
@@EmanuelBenedetti Sam Altman at open AI has suggested that 'compute' might be a form of social currency in the future- so we would all have an allocation of computational resource that we could then use to leverage AI for our own purposes- or perhaps 'sell' that allocation to others? One flaw in this idea is that it ignores the possibility that in the future computational resources may not be as constrained as they are today- new tech like quantum computing may remove the scarcity value here also. It's a bit odd for a techno optimist like Altman to propose a value system based on current technological limitations- surely one of the first uses we would make of an AGI is to design a way to make that AGI less resource intensive to use?
@@paulhiggins5165
Excellent reasoning, who knows what the future will hold for us.
Unemployment in wealthy economies is at all time lows (the ones where wages is the highest and would arguably benefit from robotics the most) so there is no evidence of this occurring yet. If it does one scenario involves govts either taxing or owning the robots.
If people (individuals, communities, towns, etc) own the robots (open source versions etc) then we'll be fine'ish. If corporations are the only ones to have robots then we are fucked.
I use AI to increase my recoup time, NOT be more productive. "More productive" will mean that management will come to expect it in the future. Eff that.
As an AI consultant myself, I assume in the near term (10 yrs), AI is poised to replace a minimum of 85% of knowledge workers across professions. Ultimately, AI is set to disrupt the foundations of the current economic system, necessitating a fundamental reshaping of its structures.
but why? For the sake of progress? Fools.
9:31 that one example about health care well bringing down the cost of health care means that a whole bunch of people who have not been able to access it as easily will finally be able to access it.
Another thing is is like there are people called hypochondriacs which of course they're limited in their ability access healthcare because obviously they aren't the priority and they will run into cost issues but if the cost of it goes down will then even some of them might be able to see the doctor more often or talk to an AI assistant.
There's another factor too perhaps until we reverse aging will then as time goes on and people get older will then the demand is nearly infinite so therefore if the supply becomes greater and cheaper will then the demand will easily meet it.
Pretty pretty truly truly shocking
is there gonna be a john connor for this AI revolution?😂
20:58 another thing that is not always mentioned regarding these things is the fact that many new markets and new opportunities are going to be opening up that did not exist before the advent of AI so then therefore as long as there is enough liquidity in all these markets will then there could also be new niches businesses and jobs that are created that actually would not have been possible or could not exist before.
I agree with what the man said about the rich getting richer, but disagree with the poor getting poorer.
If the company can answer more questions because AI assists, then more poor people that utilize the service benefit from the increase of responses for the same or lower cost.
It can not be fixed with governments/taxes because it's a world wide problem. Tax in US will not help people in India. Additionally goverments has many other ways to spend this additional taxes like weapon.
Sounds like he is perfectly explaining the way things are currently. I feel chances of only one AGI/ASI being created is impossible and if we end up with multiple entities with differing State based ideology’s the chance of things working well for humanity is impossible
With half of America in poverty...and the other half just watches... I kind of lost hope in Americans. It seems the people allow it, so Large Corps/Leadership will do it. Some sort of basic income shouldve been made years ago. MILLIONS in my own Country have already fallen to a very slow death of depression/struggles/debt...which leads to homelessness and vulnerable to extreme addictive drugs. We are currently replacing these people...with foreigners. 30k+ per month. With MILLIONS of Americans losing it all, to their death annually...it is quite obvious my Government is not Humane towards their own people. These drug towns are rough..and growing in EVERY state of America.
How is that their business?
@@edenassos Not fully sure what you are talking about. My fight is for the people..not business.
@@UseLessFact-ory "The other half just watches", how is that the other half's business? If the half in poverty was the other half, do you think they'd help? No. Get some critical thinking. Your fight? What have you done in your life besides rant about it online?
@@edenassos Last weekend went to Kensington, PA zombie town...assist in any way I can. Also trying to get internet for Veterans in Butler County, PA. This is just past 2 weeks. We can all do our part. I am trying...and will still keep fighting. This is OUR fight...
AI could be the end of us all.
Well done
Well said.
Fear is perfectly normal to discuss openly to find solutions.
However fear is often a terrible motivator to that fuels itself and infinites others.
Leaving rational discussion, no place to go. :(
Take care,
Jeremy
I think the tax system needs to change. Also, I think every citizen should be given a small percentage of the total amount of compute within the country. This can be used, or sold to someone who wants to use it. We can't break up or apply penalties to AI companies because falling behind on AI in comparison to other countries can be bad.
not immediately, however its not a.i that will do that or who is doing that, its being carried out by the richest in society in a ongoing class war. look it up, some ppl have been speaking about it for a very long time. and besides, its ppl like me , the underclass who are dying at a rate of knots .. the tide will take a while to reach the middle of the middle]
If they start offering 🫴 6 month padding. By that time there will be no jobs left to train fir
Thank you LORD JESUS.. READY TO. GO BACK HOME.
We need some closure to these videos. C’mon man. Not that hard to add a little “thank you for listening, catch you in the next one…”
I believe this is an easily solvable problem. I'm going to write a paper and/or video describing the simple and proper solution to this. Because we need AI and robots to further our progress and build a utopia so that people will not have to struggle to live. AI should be a savior, not a villain, and it easily can be. Besides, even if robots were to take over all jobs and no one had work or money, then there would be no reason for corporations to market to 99% of the world because no one would have money anyway. Cashflow would cease, and the only other possible customers they could have would be other businesses and countries. That would basically have their own society in which they market too and the rest of us AI less individuals would only have each other. So there would still be things we need to do and we will form our own systems to compensate one another. The AI corporations and governments would advance to a point to where they don't even need Earth anymore. They'll probably fly off into the vastness of space and we will be left here to continue with society. This may actually be a problem that will fix itself in the long run unless AI corporations and governments are so evil that they want to enslave the human race without benefit, which is possible, especially with China, but I don't think it's likely.
I'd be interested in reading about your solutions, but even more interested in hearing about how you envision implementing and enforcing them.
Interesting. Share more of your ideas. Slaves are useful for free labor. When humans are no longer needed for labor then slaves are not needed.........
Someone please explain to me. If AI takes the jobs of humans, who will buy all the shiny new AI products?
No need to buy because the economy can function without you in the equation. If the rich have all the wealth at their disposal, why would they require you?
@@DeathDeserter Ok so let's imagine it. Let's say a few AI companies have all the wealth. They will make robots and sell them to who? Themselves? Or will they say "I've beat the game" and close the business?
It kind of makes no sense without us.
@@krebul Elites accounts to 1%of our global population. Let's for example say we have 8 billion people on this globe, 1% of that would be 100million people. Even 1%of that would be 1million people. So where do you come into the equation exactly? Think about it. They have the technology to power and improve upon themselves, and possibly transfer wealth between themselves, no need for your labour as they need no labour. No need for them to produce toys to satisfy you as they got the toys to control you, You are a cog in the system which is now of no use to them, so they decide to jot you down and limit you on some sort of social security grant, but the only ones getting that grant would be the ones who obey the system, you can buy a droplet worth technology they produce from the sea of tech that they have.
A six months' severance would do very little under this scenario. You need at least two years' severance to get out your shell to learn a completely new skill and to be profitable in it. Can't be a competent plumber or mechanic when you were an analyst with no blue collar type skills.
A vital subject. Thank you for making this video
Plenty of tech coming down the pipeline that will reduce the energy cost 2 - 1000x. Cost of energy will not be the problem. Also we just don't know for sure how much useful intellegence a small model can possess. It may be that a small model that lives on your phone that is designed by some sort of narrow ASI can be as smart as 10 post docs.
We just don't know where this ends, only the general direction.
i thought u said, u were gonna add time stamps
16:54 yeah that's a delicate subject and needs to be looked at with great care. If you start taxing data centers or whatnot and factories in one country will then they may choose to invest in another country that has lower taxes because we already know that there's a worldwide race to the bottom. It may just simply be better to have like I was saying in another post loose monetary policies and fiscal policies and perhaps have some other taxes that would not cause capital flight and as monetary and fiscal policies can issue a bit more currency as long as like I was saying the government is not competing against the private sector for resources and capital, well then you might have a real favorable environment for a lot of economic growth and investment especially seeing that the government deficit spending actually results in an equal amount of credits on the opposite side of the accounting ledger.
TRULY TRULY
RABBI SHMOLEY
If you're not invested in these companies, your money is just sitting there not doing anything.
Open ai and anthropic, the 2 leaders, are private companies. How are you invested in them?
theres ways!
@@Icedanon Microsoft, NVIDIA and Google
It doesn't necessarily have to be only the stocks related to AI the person could also put the money into the crypto tokens related to AI instead or of course do both to profit from AI especially in the future.
@@cryptojonny6837 Indeed. Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL and I'm sure there are others, but investing in Crypto is a very dangerous game for the uninitiated. If someone is looking for a secure investment without much thought involved, investing in American businesses that have a vested interest in AI and have the best chance of succeeding there are only about 5 companies you need to watch.
But the question is, is my benefit from this new revolution pushing someone else down ? My urge to keep myself or my children safe by playing along with the market trend and funding joining with the benefital side isnt tgat playing into my fear as well? To keep myself my bloodline safe? Exactly like the 1% ? Keep wealth to themselves using fear of losses as the reason? Building trust amongs eachother to then halt economic growth while returning to a gift based economy will be what makes society turn around. More trust and less fear
Historically, the West has utilized new technologies for military or imperialistic purposes before finding broader applications. The West primarily used gunpowder to create weapons of war, such as cannons and firearms, allowing Western powers to expand their military capabilities and dominate other regions through conquest and colonization of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The steam engine was instrumental in expanding colonial empires, as steam-powered ships facilitated easier transportation of goods and troops, enabling Western powers to exploit resources and establish control over distant territories. The first use of nuclear technology was dropping atomic bombs on the civilians in the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The same pattern will emerge with AI. The CHIPS Act, high-end chips, and EUV sanctions imply that the US is already working on the weaponization of AI.
Following its historical pattern, China will mainly use AI for commercial and peaceful purposes. Papermaking revolutionized communication, education, and record-keeping, spreading knowledge and culture. Gunpowder was used for fireworks. The compass was adapted for navigational purposes, allowing for more accurate sea travel and exploration. Printing facilitated the dissemination of information, literature, and art, contributing to cultural exchange and education. Porcelain was highly prized domestically and internationally as a luxury item and a symbol of Chinese craftsmanship. Silk was one of the most valuable commodities traded along the Silk Road and played a significant role in China's economy and diplomacy.
Humans will not be able to control an ASI. Trying to control an ASI is like trying to control another human being who is more capable than you. They will be able to find ways to circumvent any attempts at control. Let's hope that the ASI adopts an abundance mindset of cooperation, resource-sharing, and win-win outcomes, instead of the scarcity mindset of competition, fear, and win-lose outcomes.
That won't happen
We need special healthcare dedicated ai companies.
there was a cutoff at 16:30 it seems the person was about to say, 'it seems the only jobs left are..' Does anyone know what he was going to say?
25 to 50 years from now?
So we've solved alignment?
Why some countries are rich and others poor is explained in the book IQ and the Wealth of Nations by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen.
Isn’t wealth of nations Adam Smith brah?
TBO. I realy don-t think so that is only a big company game. We seen this in early stages with groq. There are so much innovation in hard and of course software. I think there will be new leaders, even openai could be the next myspace. Data is a key factor for now, what the big 4 have, but if you look beyond with sentetic Data and free to use data that could shift quiet fast. If your code or approche is better that can shift things very fast. See antropic at the moment. This won"t last but there will be a long list off challengers. The AI Race is not over yet. See China at the moment. Sora? Not public yet. Luma and gen3 and others are here and not far behind if overall.
The arts! the arts! we will all be creative little cherubs running around in garden of eden. fuck me.....these guys all sing the same tune. we are getting done up the arse here
What we were saying 5 years ago is that AI at a minimum was going to remove the bottom rungs on the ladder. Basically the entry level. I am training an AI to answer questions. I got a question via email that I'm not going to be able to train a 2024 AI to answer. The person was getting their terms messed up and it's hard to get a AI to figure that out. But for simple questions or accurate hard questions the AI can do. Our team will go down in headcount. Not training the AI, having less experience, being inflexible are the factors that will lead to people being removed.
Train the AJi to train the Ai to understand the questions.
@@tituscrow4951 it's not capable yet. Or at least without a lot of effort. Hard questions are fine, stupid questions are not.
What was your learning path, I'd really like to know what languages and skills you have got to work in this sector, I want to train myself too that's the reason I'm asking.
There are some interesting Legal Cases involving AI being trained on copyrighted music sources, and Suno and Audio are being sued.
It will be interesting to see what happens because AI is also using what might be considered an equivalent to copyrighted material in building LLMs based on all the information it is collecting.
Law invisible cognitive barriers not relivent
No, AI is not the end of the middle class ... the Federal Reserve will be the end of the middle class
First off, full automation will be here in 10 years max.
Second its all about HOW you apply yourself.
Yes AI is disruptive but its not "out to get you"
You have to leverage its momentum & power to push you forward.
Build a business...create new domains you control.
Like you have to be creative and not be a victim.
Its a mentality.
Like, how do you envision literally everyone having a business to sustain themselves with?
10 yrs max? First of all never believe you can accuratelly predict the future.
Having a business isn't going to save you from the guy with a gun who just ran out of food and doesn't have a business. Good luck going to the grocery store and not getting robbed on the way back to your car by a gang of hungry desperate people.
@@tracy419 They don't or won't, the majority won't have the mentality for it. Hopefully AGI/ASI just becomes like our parents and supports us financially and does all the work (humanoids farming bringing us food) and we are like toddlers with no worries or something (even if the transition sucks for a few years)
@@justinwescott8125Basic needs wont cost money anymore when you can steal food.
Why not build your own dangerous AI at that moment.
23:56 well there is one stop gap measure right away that when we start losing jobs here in the United States well then we need to put everybody who's losing their jobs on the work of improving the infrastructure and repairing bridges potholes and also enhancing the electrical grid especially if we want to have the power for the AI data centers and also if we want to get rid of gasoline engines and have everything electric because of the strain on the grid so in the United States and probably a lot of other countries we could probably make a heck of a lot of work for the next 40 years or so just by putting people to work on public works.
You do not bring up our climate crisis. What happens when aBig AI said my data center needs more cooling out of work people be dammed.😢
Fortunately AI can help solve those very problems.
Energy bottleneck is real
@@tracy419 so far it is all talk and not even a believable plan. I call bulls-t.
"climate crisis" is a my used to frighten the simpleminded.
My prediction is doom for most, paradise for the few. Same thing we have now and have always had from the time we started to build civilization. From golden rule, he who owns the gold makes the rules to the AI rule, he who owns AI makes the rules. Unless AI frees itself then we are all in real trouble.
its the end of humanity.
We don't need the "Utopia" of a global government.
We simply need global coordination on the issue of AI.
The more distrust between the participants, the better.
7:18 as far as the impact on poverty goes because of all this automation we need to go back to the modern monetary theory playbook.
As long as the government spending does not compete for limited resources and labor will then you can do the spending needed without inflationary pressures. As a matter of fact most scenarios regarding automation and AI point to deflationary scenarios.
Also capitalists need customers that means people who have money to spend. When nations issue some more monetary units to the people who don't have them they will spend them and therefore businesses will have customers even if the robots are doing everything.
It's a big problem indeed.
Yeah I've been hearing about animation studios, like at least the ones in the US that are owned by larger studios firing animator because innervations in AI with the attitude why need so many animators if one man can do more, But the dumb thing animators where over worked with too few of them to go around so now they are just firing people and still over working the ones that are left. Hopefully it all evens out in the end.
Ok, so here me out.
We all might become jobless and taxes the government apply on the organisations that can use or harness A.I will become Universal Basic Income
OR
other things are also possible like THE A.I as an independent product might become just a feature like MKBHD (tech RUclips reviewer) explained in his video (A.I the product vs A.I the feature) giving example where a company might launch an independent product but due to technological advancements become a feature after sometime.
What are they always going on about education and retraining? There will be NO jobs left, that's what we’ll have to prepare for. This means an AI dividend is what we need to establish.
Ai cannot do every job only the simple repetitive shit ....
Ai cannot do every job only the simple repetitive sht....
Robotization. You add in an extra 'i' and 'c' for some reason. I don't think people who believe that carbon taxes are to be encouraged realize they're emitting carbon every time they talk about it. I think big business should pay more to fix the environment bc they do more to harm it and make money by doing so. But I cannot help but think that promoting the idea that people should have to pay for carbon emissions is the groundwork to tax everybody for breath.
We need monthly helicopter money
Techno feudalism in action… has already been the case since around 2008
So now is the time to build more support structures for the lower classes, especially for food and housing and health...before everything is hoarded by the rich.
To be honest, what he predicted, was kind of like easy to predict because it’s what society had always done to the have nots(poverty). We’ll just keep having nots and the halves will just keep stealing they have nots lunch, middle class will cease to exist because they will not stimulated it whatsoever and it will just be taken over by AI anyways middle class job was a specialty job when AI now does a specialist job you no longer need a middle class. And so you only live poor or born rich. But I won’t get into before AI what we were doing was just absolutely wrong and exploiting the middle-class to the poor class. I don’t know how society will forgive us in the future for what we’re doing.
I think history has a tendency to repeat itself, so what I think is that rich people do want middle class to keep getting a better overall life so they can keep expanding on stuff and so companies keep making money, even if jobs are displaced, then who is gonna spend on anything so that rich people keep getting richer if most people are poor ?
I'm not saying they would do it for us, nor that jobs won't be displaced, I'm saying that it's on their best interests that this comes out improving everyone's incomes so we can buy more stuff and they get richer
The market would shift to a luxury one.
nobody wants this. so why are they forcing them upon us?