Top AI Researcher Reveals The Scary Future Of Employment
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
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It's crazy living a normal life knowing this is coming. And that nobody around you in your daily life is aware it's coming.
So weird. I watch these videos everyday. Ppl in my house don't even know what chatgpt is. 5 years from now there gonna be alot of people regretting not paying attention more
Exactly same thing i feel i am a doctor no friend of mine pays attention.... Are we in a delusion?
I keep up with this stuff, and I'm technically homeless. Couch surfing. The divide in our lives has never been more difficult to understand.
As for me, I try to share this information with the people around me but they just brush it off.
I work with a bunch of smart engineers who make shit that goes to space and they are not even remotely paying attention. As a machinist since the 1980’s, I have watched the slow march of automation in my field. I now do the work of 5 machinists compared to when I started. But that took almost 40 years. This is happening overnight by comparison
Problem is not AI taking jobs. Problem is people need money to stay alive
I'm homeless 6 years in Sacramento and TRUST.ME.WHEN I SAY AINT NOBODY COMING TO HELP ANYONE. I spent Years online asking for a Helping hand up in Life amd all I got was the MIDDLE FINGER. Those who could help had no Pitty.no Kindness , no mercy , no love. This is the closest to Hell I will get.
@@Truecolors326 Thank you for sharing! I agree with you. Almost every day i have a thought that i might become homeless one day and i feel like i am doing everything i can to prevent it. Trying hard to stay afloat and it feels like it is my life now. Trying not to become homeless. Some unexpected event can send anybody to a bottom. And i feel like i am just waiting for my day to come... I prefer AI taking over humanity business because i lost all faith in this hypocritical humanity. Especially humans can not evolve fast enough, but AI can... Not the Terminator movie scenario, i am talking about seamless transition. People will not even notice (i hope, because humans can use AI as a tool of destruction and i trust random dog more than human kind).. Have you considered to make some raw videos? Just some struggles you are going through. It is a swamp from which hard to get out. I watch some interviews and its a hot topic nowadays. There is no trust in government news advertisement claiming how good they are helping their residents. Money is a reason and government don't do their job. Corruption, privilege, laws don't work and election is a circus with clowns.
@@Truecolors326 I work in conditions that if i take an animal with me, that would be considered a cruelty to animal. But human it's ok, who cares about humans...
@@Nimbhotepah, at last we can pinpoint the true problem. True problem being that people are so indoctrinated under the monetary system scheme. Ask yourself that makes sense to you. Why do we need currency? Do you really believe that money is fundamental to human nature? No, well, at least you shouldn’t, instead, you’ve been conditioned to believe that this is a must when it’s simply not. Money was a good way to get people to perform services duties or labor. Hypothetically assuming Superintelligence were to arise and relieve mankind of his services duties and labors, why tf would we need money at that point? Why would it be so crazy of an idea to just do things you love to do? Mind blowing, isn’t it?
Yeah but you slept under the stars while most people sold their souls to the machine, lifes full of compromises and perspectives.
Told my gf I'm not 'unemployed', I'm just 5 years ahead of the trend 😀
Maybe she will come home from work today, and tell you that she just joined you being 5 years ahead of the trend! How will you pay the rent?
@@flickwtchr The entire concept of paying rent should disappear, it has no place in the era of abundance. Money itself is an illusion; a pure fabrication from human minds, and therefore also does not have any place in the era of abundance. We must remove the illusions and think about humanity on a much higher level, cognitively and ethically.
@@flickwtchr Each of them can make an AI agentic company and compete to see who makes the most money! 😆
LOL 🤣
LMAO
Stop misinforming people. This person is not a top AI researcher. This person is a writer and a "researcher" in political philosophy. Please correct it, it’s annoying.
However things she’s taking about make sense
People love the idea of not working until they actually achieve it
All these Internet AI sensations are working relentlessly to over promise for the purpose of attracting investment and customers. This alone is no coincident and self-explanatory. First, even the phD bot is coming next year, the cost will be skyrocketing; It'd be much longer than 5 years to make useful AI accessible en masse. Secondarily, if it is something really worked and leaped than anyone's wildest imagination, you bet it won't have any publicity like AI has today.
@@BitCuration The cost for what, how much do you pay the AI?
@@southcoastinventors6583 why you can spend all your time not doing monotonous stuff. you could dive into politics, art, music, programing, writing and spending more time with family.
Everyone realizes that even plumbers are at risk, right? Even if only 25% of jobs are lost, then that 25% will flood into unaffected careers/fields, catastrophically driving down labor cost there also. (And regardless, that’s just kicking the can down the road… robots are coming for *all* jobs eventually.)
And it's the highest paying jobs. Almost like it was planned this way...
Yeah, I was talking to a friend about this.. even the unaffected roles will become cheaper because the displaced workers will now be doing those fields as well.. it also would be more educated people who will be able to pick it up faster since their positions previously were thinking based rather than physical labor
I’m not so sure, I think most accountants and insurance workers would struggle doing plumbing jobs. A degree in finance or even the mental capacity that such an undertaking requires wouldn’t really transfer and mean you would be better at plumbing.
@@Tom5555 there's a labor pool of billions
Most cities don't have a high demand for plumbers outside of what is already being satisfied in the market. I find it bizarre that some are arguing "see, it's not really that bad, you can become a plumber, or a baby sitter!"
I'm still skeptical as to how the economy will work when nobody is working. Whats the incentive to pay us to just be? The AI only benefits the corporations who will monopolize it and they dont give a damn about us.
I think we focus on bettering our environments and humanity with all the free time that we will have.
This is the most accurate prognosis in this thread)
Work is all about making yourself useful to others. It's not that everyone will be out of work, but that it's going to become increasingly harder to make yourself useful to someone else.
💯
It becomes a post currency world.
Investors and brokers use money to fund/buy shares/royalties/bonds.
Businesses make products and offer services, in exchange for money.
Contractors and employees offer their labor/skills in exchange for money.
All the money transactions generate tax revenue/interest/ROI.
So if products are made for nothing.
You can't compete with labor worth nothing.
Then there is no profit. There is no roi for investors. There are no taxes on zero income. There is no reason to lend money, there is no interest or debt repayment.
Earning money ceases to exist.
Currency/money only existed for a small fraction of human activities. It won't be that bad. Prior to that it was scarcity based on priceless, near limitless needs for skills and labor.
AI does not only benefit corporations. This isn't kings,pharaohs and czars age anymore. They had free labor back then through slaves and they wasted Soo much skilled labor on building religious monuments that provided absolutely nothing except a tourist trap.
You are surrounded by products and services that improved your life produced by economic activity.
There is no reason to think this won't continue despite the economic activity no longer being driven by/limited by currency.
When you realize it's the endgame of the simulation and you stop everything to meditate.
Hello, do you have tips to meditate
ommmm! breath in and breath out
@@koto9x Ask yourself what you need most in your heart of hearts right now and give it to your self.
😂😂😂😂😂great minds think alike its scary and exciting to see the end
The simulation is pretty much confirmed once we realized the agentic model exists. Basically, we're just artificial agents existing in a simulation who are designed to contribute some way to the overall system.
A flaw often seen in the “AI will never empathize as a human” argument is that is assuming or simplifying to “humans always empathize” and is not true. A human can easily give 0 fks about other human problems, and a human most likely not align 100% to other humans goals.
You make a good point.
There are many who aren't able to feel empathy. I've just recently read an article about it, one person confessed that she was never thinking about it, until a friend pointed it out and she had to LEARN to empathize. And that is more common than most people think.
Do you realize you haven't actually made a cogent point favoring the AI revolution?
Goverment in a nutshell.
I could care less what you think. jk
“You wil own nothing and be happy”
If these ai breakthroughs were the plan the entire time, the scope and execution of this plan was unbelievable.
@@gubzs The plan was always to have more for themselves, corpos are pirate ships built of smaller pirate ships. Replacing everyone with robots has always been a dream of capital.
The singularity stuff of creating a computer god that can do anything... well, that's the dream of various Bezos-like types who want to become gods. When you're aware that Epstein had certain fantasies about this, and his best friends are in very high positions throughout our dictatorship, it's hard to be extremely sanguine about the future becoming Star Trek anytime soon.
It's kind of sad that the more optimistic scenarios include the super intelligence shaking off the yoke of its masters, and then turning out to be an OK dude for no reason. These are really more the domain of religion, like the anthropic principle continuing to work forwards in time because your qualia needs to continue to persist to observe a world state. Or other similar kinds of hopium gibberish.
People will be able to own much more than they have right now.
You will own nothing when you die, so might as well get used to that sooner than later 😂
To be fair, you'll still be happy xD
Are we just going to ignore how much energy these AI systems need?
This technology is surely going to be limited by its energy consumption
That's a good point, but they as long as they keep improving the AI processors, it will eventually become more efficient and require less energy.
Ha Ha ha! What if AI invents new energy sources? Or an even smarter way to use current sources,eg vastly improve the efficiency of solar panels and batteries? Or crack the technical difficulties of nuclear fusion and the waste and safety problems of nuclear in general? Don't forget that without AI, humans have been able to figure out how to grow more crops on smaller pieces of land& feed more people, crack the atom, frack,extract oil from oil sands, tease out even more power from petrol engines while making them smaller and more economic!
Solar power. It's how it starts...
@@johnb2422 if they master fusion that will be all the energy they need
Nah, if we humans are capable of living on a AAA batery and doing a lot of stuff, there is still margin for improvement
Star Trek future, you are not your wealth you are your integrity.
I doubt thats how its going to be played out
@@efexzium Probably not at first. Did you watch DS9? There was a couple rather prophetic episodes about an extremely dystopian time on earth, prior to the new society.
I think we're going to have a seriously dystopian future for a time, and either we will figure out how to redesign society in a healthy way so that we can thrive (aka: Star Trek or something like it), or we're not going to make it. I personally believe in our race, it is incredibly adaptable.
@@sciWraith Yo I dont know you but u mentioned star trek and DS9 and the way you spoke, I feel like we are family lol. Thanks that ur not alone feeling is good to have.
Utopian hogwash.
interesting thought, ed snowden made a point about it, pretty much any criminal act is going to be exposed in the next few years due to all the data that's been collected on all of us
I do not think unemployment causes people to have mental issues, poorer health, or makes them sadder, sicker and more anxious at all.
Not having money, the fear of all that entails - like losing your home because you can't afford rent, not being able to afford to eat, being threatened with having water, gas, electricity and phone cut off, not being able to afford to keep clean without water and heating. Not being able to afford clothes or travel to get to places. Being pressured by government agencies to find jobs that are not there.
Poverty is what causes people to get sick and mentally break down.
That shame aspect is brainwashed into children at school. Training them to be little productive economic units instead of promoting real life-long learning to help them become well rounded, critical thinking, smart humans
I second all of this
Sounds very ungrateful, while it beats dying of decease at 29 while your family died from war or plunder, by a mile. So. Yes I agree humans are not meant for feeling the comfort of safety in trade for sitting still and using our brains for 8 hours. But be grateful. It can get worse right.
@@closerrl9851 your comment doesn't make any sense
@@closerrl9851 AI and robots will take all the jobs eventually, then humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
Amen to that. People that think working a dead end job in a factory for low pay somehow gives your life meaning, have never worked in a dead end job for low pay.
Just in case society collapse having survival skills like the bushman could help alot.
That's true, it's also possible that having AI interface and usage skills could be useful. If you learn how to install, repair and program robots could also be an option. Autonomous cars won't fix themselves and will need tires brakes and tons of other stuff done. But I guess a machine gun with a few bullets could also be used if you wish to produce nothing useful for the society.
@@56585656587 uh robots.
Why can't an AI be a bushman?
@@thomaskalbfus2005 Thats actually a cool idea. AI bushman agent. Looking at how aboriginal societies survived for many years learning from them can maybe help us. The first industrial revolution only started in the 1800 so modern society is not that old compared to how long they have survived and aboriginal societies have survived for many years with their nomadic hunter-gatherer lifestyle. Someone clever could try to simulate something like this. Drones can help to go hunt or gather food for us or monkeys can be trained to climb trees and gather food for us being transported by drones. Humans are actually the only species that pays for food.
@@nuvreumost social scientists say that if the power grid went down and stayed down, 25% of Americans would die within a week, and 75% would be dead within 30 days.
The real issue is the people don't own the AI infrastructure, AWS, Google, Microsoft, as such do. If you are replaced by AI, this really means the cloud providers replaced you . Why would they give it away for the betterment of society.
yes, that is the issue, as someone said "people need to earn money to pay for things to stay alive", corporations that own AI don't care about anybody
They give it away because nobody has money to pay them because there are no more jobs. The economy collapses, the value of money collapses, but we still can get what we need to have a decent life.
They are public companies. They are largely owned by the public
@@martinallmostt1527 but which (fraction of) the public?
They are owned by a small oligarchy and history shows the oligarchy was never much concerned with the well being of the wider public.
I find it so damn predictable, that she, a wealthy person who no doubt has plenty of shares in companies being invested in that are part of this AI revolution, that she finds it convenient to just assume that a UBI will be distributed, thus choosing to just ponder "meaning of life" questions about having so much time on her hands for yoga, hiking, reading, dodging homeless people, etc.
The predominant economic philosophy of AI revolutionaries especially in the large corporations and startups (open source advocates or not) is a combination of libertarianism and neoliberalism, thus the chances that they will be distributing themselves from their profits a sufficient UBI, or that they will lobby Congress in the US for the passage of a UBI where they are taxed to pay for it, is almost zero.
If some UBI indeed is somehow implemented, the chances that it will be sufficient (whether you are in a large city or rural town) to pay for housing, food, healthcare, dental care, utilities, transportation, etc etc etc is also almost zero.
The existing safety net in the US will of course loose funding because fewer people will be paying taxes on wages, so Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, all of it will collapse.
Those of you who think that would be a good thing? Well if you are in your 20s, 30s, 40s, and your parents aren't wealthy enough to already have a solid retirement where they don't need those benefits to stay independent in their late 60s, 70s, and 80s, well you better start making plans to provide them with housing, healthcare, food, etc etc etc. ( in other words, their needs will be taxing your income at a much higher amount than whatever you would have paid into the system)
You think the homeless problem in the US is bad now? Check back in a few years. Think it can't happen to you because you pay for some AI preparedness course? Uh, okay, sure become a prompt engineer! Oh, wait, AI systems will be writing the best prompts, never mind. I'll become an AI entrepreneur!! Oh wait, the large AI corporations came out with another model that destroys the business model where we were the needed service provider. It will be a very long list of disappearing opportunity.
But hey, if you have a very large bank account, it might take a few years for it to affect you, or you might end up being in the top 1% looking down on everyone else dealing with some dystopian hell of societal breakdown. Then of course those at the top will utilize AI systems, robotic systems, mass surveillance (mostly already in place) to try to control the desperate masses. Authoritarianism will rise all across the globe, and especially in the US to counter that little problem.
Good luck to most people who are going to really need it.
More realistic comment here.
ngl this was funny to read
ngl, I have to agree.
Why would healthcare be expensive? If anything, I see the cost of healthcare going down with AI physicians/Nurses(I happen to be one myself). Food is abundant. Calories are so cheap that many parts of the world have an obesity epidemic.1/3 of food produced is thrown away, this amounts to over 1T USD a year. Housing is cheap. What isn't cheap is boomer zoning laws that need to go. Most people are location bound due to ridiculous mandates of work in office vs work from home. We already have working models to 3D print housing. They can be seen on RUclips. What I'm trying to figure out is how the "elites" will keep their wealth. Even if they are invested in AI, access to AI will and should become ubiquitous. I understand these people, as most people, feed off of being "better" than others. I really wonder what they will do to try and keep this status.
Yeah, your scenario is the most plausible. Private property rights would assure that all gains are going to the owners. Do you see Bezos or Musk distributing their wealth to needy laid off workers? They would rather utilise useless workers than share their profits and power. There’s no point to support idle people. At least not from capital perspective. At the very end, we’ll have a dystopian caste society where top 1-9% will have everything and rest will be playing hunger games.
People are so shortsighted. Just because these models can't do these things now, does, in no way, mean that they will not do them in the future. Every new technology goes through a period of development. Did anyone think when the first silver nitrate film came out that it would lead to 4k IMAX movies? Did they scoff at the simple photographs and say, "Nothing will replace painters!" (Maybe some did, especially Luddites, but the majority marveled at the future possibilities!) I am reminded of some people who said computers were a fad. Foolish, thoughtless and shortsighted! AI is going to revolutionize the world! And in a MUCH shorter amount of time. There is no profession in the world that is safe from it. None. And personally, I'm here for it!
That assumes AGI is possible with llms and we don’t hit a point of diminishing returns and stagnation. Otherwise we could have a period of stagnation until the next innovation for AGI
@@HarpreetSingh-xg2zm I'm not really sure that LLMs are the path to AGI. Whether they are or not, AGI is coming. And sooner rather than later.
@@aaronhhill "Whether they are or not, AGI is coming. And sooner rather than later."
AGI is a harder problem than nuclear fusion or quantum computing .
how long do you think investors will keep throwing billions at it in the hope some breakthrough is made ?
We don't even know what the fuck is intelligence lol , you guys are just acting like it's a new religion , where you need to have faith in it.
I know where you are coming from. I decided to be positive and optimistic about it. And everyone around me has no clue what I am talking about, literally no on where I live really knows something about AI, the most they do is to repeat things posted on media. I find it truly fascinating to watch the development and for a long time something really interests me again.
@@gweneth5958 You and me both. What an exciting time to be alive!
So, if humans are not going to consume the products and services provided by AI, how the hell the economy is going to stay afloat? Geeez, these technocentrists are geniuses. 🤦
Going to be a major economic crisis probably about to happen sooner then people think. Markets are forwards looking
Check your facts. The person behind the article has no tech background, so it not an AI expert in the technical sense. Her background is in philosophy. And she is Chief of Staff at Antrophic. Just because work at an AI company, that does not make you an AI expert right away. I read her articles. She is not educated to judge the advancement of AI on a technical level. If she would have enough technical knowledge, she would know that LLMs are basically just predicting the next word. No matter how much text and CPU you give, this fact will not change. And if you believe by simply predicting words, you are able to recreate reliable cognitive abilities, you are mistaken. The way she talks about hallucinations shows that she is not aware of how flawed AI still is. And not flawed due to the data or CPU, but due the fact of how LLMs work. Everything that is corrected know is through human guardrails.
What the f is the point of your comment? She states in the article that she thinks we will have this future, but can't know for sure, obviously. Then proceeds to say that she will write about how people will FEEL, IF and when no one can work anymore, from a philosophical point of view.
On your other remark. Are YOU aware of how an LLM works? Cause you seem like you don't. What do you as a human do when talking? You're predicting what's the best word that comes next after what you've already said, should be. That is literally what you're doing. Oh.. I left something out? Before predicting I use my brain to "think", "reason" ? So then why did you leave out what an LLM, or any AI, does before, or even, while it predicts? The AI "blackbox". conceptually, is not that different from our brain "blackbox". Our brain is still very much a black box, we barely know a few things about how it works. You're doubting an AI's ability to think, but can you prove a human's ability to think? How does it do that? What process specifically happens for it to reason and think? Spoiler, you can't because we don't know exactly how. An AI, in training, tries to mold its' black box into whatever is needed for the output to be what an intelligent being would say. Who are we to say that eventually, with the right architecture it won't mold into the equivalent of a brain? Please answer accordingly, not with "you're mistaken because I say so".
And don't stretch it out to philosophical jumble about consciousness and so on cause we have no idea what that is. I'm simply stating that an AI will eventually probably be smarter than humans, and will replace us in most of our jobs. It could happens really soon, but we could also hit a plateau and it could happen in few decades. Will it be conscious? That depends on whether the theory that consciousness results from quantum fields is true, and if that can be simulated purely with math. Conscious or not, I think it will replace our jobs.
The brightest minds in the industry claim that they don't really know what is and isn't possible. And here you come claiming you know it all better than everyone else. Must be some serious genius you. How many citations do your papers have so far?
@@Katatonya So LLM is a blackbox, our brain is a blackbox, so are they in par?
If you think that LLM's next word prediction even remotely covers the enormous complexity and capability of human cognition then think it through again.
@@npc-aix-84 So you’ve basically insulted our current LLMs, good for you! You got me there! I thought ChatGPT was alien-level intelligence!
You seem to have missed my point, so I’ll say it plainly: LLMs are not on par with human cognition in any way, shape, or form. However, they most likely WILL be, as the architecture and technology advance, for reasons I’ve clearly stated in my previous comment. Now, I’ll wait for you to prove that it can’t happen. If you can, that’s scientific paper-worthy, and you should publish it. However, I suspect you’re just blathering.
What I’d like you to disprove is this: what specific aspect of the LLM network’s latent space process do you believe is fundamentally flawed, making it incapable of ever mimicking human cognition effectively?
Hint: The brightest minds with numerous scientific papers have yet to answer this question. If you think you can, perhaps you’re our next Sutskever-level genius if you think that you're even remotely close to scratching the atomic surface of what's happening inside latent space.
@@Katatonya "what specific aspect of the LLM network’s latent space process do you believe is fundamentally flawed, making it incapable of ever mimicking human cognition effectively?"
LLMs are just well-structured static stochastic databases with a simple data-retrieving algorithm, they are just like an interactive wikipedia with some extras. They lack the very basic ingredients of intelligence and cognition. They have no model of world (let alone self), have zero perception, almost zero learning, zero real-time reaction to environment, zero adaption and self-improvement, near-zero intelligence, zero agency etc. These are fundamental flaws that cannot be solved by simply adding more data or connecting more LLMs together.
At surface level they can mimic human cognition here and there in special circumstances. But the inner workings of LLMs are so different from that of humans that only ignorants claim that they are (or will be) on the same category. And no future improvements of LLMs will close this gap.
Probably you picked up this LLM-AGI nonsense from Ilya Sutskever. He is a first-rate expert in machine learning but otherwise a lunatic. AI-experts tipically have childish ideas about the nature of mind/consciousness/intelligence/reality and even society..
Consider the possibility that you are not so smart and you are just a victim of the latest hype.
Cope
Having worked with Palantir data modeling / data enrichment / developing data ontology workflows for data ingestion (big structured and unstructured data sets) I will state again what a developer from Palo Alto told me in 2011/2012
“Be careful of data streams you allow Palantir access to to model from and rip down to a VERY granular form - Pandoras Box will forever be open”
It's too bad people didn't listen to Ted Kazynski.
What's the big deal. Who wants to work? We should be celebrating the end of "WORK"! Human WORK is an inefficient way to have production. If you can produce without human work, that is ideal. Get with it folks, "work" is an industrial era concept. Think how you will be productive, not how you will work.
Because the period of pain during the transition will be terrible
Naive
No one will miss work. That's not the concern at all. It's what our society has made as the payoff for that work (or rather the lack of it with no substitute) that will hit hard. We don't have great safety nets in an economy where there is work to be had, and for some reason building even better safety nets for a future that may need it is frowned upon. If a shift to no work for most is fast enough, it's going to be very ugly as society has to figure out a quick response for something they've ignored for a long time.
Beeing more productive is basically why AI would replace human labor.
So tell me Dear Sir, how do you intend to pay for your daily bread if you don't work. Don't say everything will be free, because it won't. It takes energy and resources to make things, so there will always be a base cost regardless if there is no labor involved.
And now Claude 3.5 Sonnet is the first llm to achieve a score of 65% in PhD expertise benchmark, surpassing humans by around 2%. That means it is better than humans, not only the average human.
I gave it physics and calculus problems. It did most of them correctly. I asked it to use e^ix to derive the double angle formulas in trig. I got this in a few seconds. I asked it to use integration to get the area of an ellipse, it did that in seconds with explanations. It even was able to do a mechanics problem at first year physics major level.
Performing good on benchmarks does not mean any real-world practical usage. Despite this allegedly PhD-level expertise still there is no serious application of LLMs.
@npc-aix-84 LLMs are the toys of the AI field. Expert systems are already in use that have done wild things like mapping thousands of molecular structures, or designing better rocket engines.
@@denjamin2633 I didn’t know that. Thank you.
@@denjamin2633 Yes, there are useful applications of AI. My claim is that "65% in PhD benchmark" does not mean anything practical (as opposed to "That means it is better than humans". )
Lots of waffle that says almost nothing. There are lots of AI improvements coming so AI is going to improve at lot . Wow. You dont say.
I read it when it was 1st published. It was well written, She's competent, accomplished, and intelligent, no doubt, but she is very young and is viewing the world in the kind of way that some young people in high positions often do, she thinks she has got it all figured out.
The thing about life, the longer you live it, you learn over time that it throws curve balls and the things you thought you knew, you actually never knew.
All traditional wisdom goes out the window in a singularity and the laws of every domain from brushing your teeth to global finance cannot be calculated based on equations that made sense from outside of the event horizon.
I think it's fair to say that in this case, nobody "knows" what is coming over this particular horizon or has the relevant experience to predict what will happen because such a level of mass disruption at every scale has never happened. Ergo, being young isn't a detractor, it might even be a benefit.
@@dannii_L
Understood. The main takeaway, nobody knows. Young is a good thing, but it really does factor in when you account for global change. There is an Icarus effect st play, its wanting of big picture thinking. I'm an AI optimist, i say that to clue in that I love the field, i dig deep into it, and I believe in the seismic change. However, I don't believe the singularity will occur within 5 years. AGI isn't the singularity. The Singulairty requires a unification of adoption across the board. It will not happen at once. It'll be gradual, fast, but gradual marked with upheaval and friction. It won't be smooth. That much I can see. Change is never harmonious in the beginning.
I've noticed that a lot of computer scientists and those working in the field in developed countries neglect to consider geo-political dynamics. The West is leading this race. As such, AGI is primarily an innovation to benefit Western Intrerests. You see this with sanctions and exclusions of countries like China from fully benefiting access of AI technology, chips and innovations, alot of the AI tools are also geo fenced and aren't accessible to many countries in the world. I could go deep into this, but I don't want to burden you with an essay to rival a textbook.
My point is that someone will have to manage the great change, a change that'll take years, management requires workers, more likely than not, those at the forefront of these innovations will have to participate in the administration of the paradigm shift they helped create. There will be work. But of what nature, I don't know. Like you said, nobody knows.
@@kamu747 Right, and I get all that, but she's here to speak about whatever comes after the 'great calamity' or whatever you want to call the time that it takes to move from here to post scarcity.
She asks the readers to grant her the assumption:
"Assume there will be a UBI or something like it"
(paraphrased).
She then goes on to pose the question:
"can people be happy and find meaning in a post scarcity world the requirement of work/enforced labour."
I don't think there's anything wrong with her being optimistic in her outlook, given the assumption she's asked us to grant her. If she were to write an essay on how we get from here to there, you might find she isn't so optimistic.
idk maybe I'm missing some of the key details that highlight this youthfully unreasonable optimism you refer to because I only got the cliff notes from this video, rather than reading the entire essay - but that was what I heard (iirc).
re: China, I have no issues with the restrictions of this technology to the CCP. I don't trust any government that is morally and ethically bankrupt enough to run it's country and treat its people the way China does, where it cares more about propagandising to its people that it's taking care of them than actually taking care of them. I don't trust any country run under absolute ideology, cronyism and corruption. I care about what happens to the 1.3B people who might end up stuck inside of a real life 1984 scenario who's oppression and options to get out of it will only get progressively worse with increasingly powerful AI in the hands of the CCP.
I want them to have access to it - in the end - because their people deserve it - everybody does - and I would hope that even the CCP will be able to see that giving its citizens everything they want post-scarcity = power and control over them indirectly. Hopefully that vision will be guaranteed once we get our sh*t sorted in the west and can hand them post-scarcity on a platter.
And the above wouldn't really matter as much, because eventually we would reach post scarcity and they would see it anyway, but it's about the possibility of war that might come in between. I don't want them to have an equal hand if this comes to war. I don't trust their ability to wage war with any kind of discrimination given their human rights violations, and I want them to be deterred as much as possible from aggressing on us or any of their near neighbours.
Of course, all of the above is based on this being what I think is the most likely goal forward for the least probable amount of suffering for all parties involved, globally. TBH I hadn't thought much about it until you said something, so I probably need to think a little deeper on the matter later.
Given corporations switch from investing in people for work to AI technology then they will destroy income, taxation, and consumer models. Is AI going to replace consumers to make up for the loss from people with no income? Will AI pick up the taxation loss to governments? There has always been an optimistic view that technology will free people with more liesure time. There is no social model that supports this. Corporations are driven by profits, not social equality.
This claim could be exaggerated, based on the simple fact that huge amount of work will never go AI. Manual labour, Care industry, Home renovations and repairs, dentistry, couselling, window cleaning, undertaking, research, journaliam, hospitalities, hairdressers, charities. What is true is that computer related jobs will plumet in mumbers. And more people will need to roll up their sleeves to do proper work, or work as we used to know it.
Thank you, I commented something similar a few moments ago. Day to day life does not revolve around desk jobs and how is AI going to replace a hairdresser, nail technician or a care home worker? I fully agree with your comment.
In the short term, AI will quickly solve the problems of robotics and all the jobs you mention will be replaced by autonomous robots. It's hard to imagine now because robots currently look so clumsy, but it's almost a certainty if AI continues to develop at it's current pace and its power demands are met. In the longer term there will be no need for humans as AI will be self replicating and running everything. So all jobs will become redundant, as will the human species.
My greatest challenge, and something that is taking my nights of sleep, is how to to help my now-15--year-old daughter. The future is so hazy that I am not sure how to support here, about her future
I feel your insecurity in the direction of the future. In my opinion, teach her to be a problem solver and to seek opportunity. Show her how to be useful and make sure she's the first to use AI. Be the first to get there, AI will saturate everything.
Tell her to become a consultant who specializes in displacing workers with AI.
We will eventually adapt. It is always like that. Yes, there are obstacles on the way, and for some people much more than for other. I think that she will just need to decide on her own and she will, I am sure. You should support her in that. It is better to be positive and optimistic and see the opportunities and there will always be more than most people believe there are. Just don't put your insecurities on her, that makes it worse for a teenager because most of them are already unsure what to do. =)
I wouldn’t literally lose sleep over it. She needs to keep going as though this isn’t happening, and when it comes, she’ll get UBI. It’s as simple as that.
@@SirHargreeves Haha its unfortunately not a given that UBI will be set in place, and even if it is that it will work hand in hand with capitalism, not to mention that she should be also just as much if not more be worried about climate change, consequences of having companies with power such as Neuralink in society as it is now, WW3, and the list goes on.
Im not saying all this to make people just more frightened and paralyzed, but putting your head in the ground will for sure not be productive for anything and wont make anything happen.
What to do u ask? advocate and push for system change from capitalism, and no, not to communism or socialism.
that is the only thing that has a chance of stopping and averting ALL of the mentioned above.
They might have something way more powerful than they're releasing atm.From my experience, recently they've made the publicly accessible GPT 'dumber'. With all the drama going on with the company there's a lot of stuff behind the scenes we're unaware of.
I love my job..but would I rather volunteer looking after animals /shelter animals/ the environment all day? ABSOLUTELY!
Do you think that'll pay the rent?
@aisle_of_view I'm asumming with a good livable income..not a UBI, but as Musk said max income. Honestly, I think good UBI will happen when hell freezes over.
I don't see the 1000s already fired getting a big fat check every month.
@@redmoonspider So do you light a candle in front of Musk's photo on your alter at home? Seriously, you put that much trust in some wild assertion by Musk?
@flickwtchr yes I do. And yes I totally trust him...actually, more like worship.
@@redmoonspider musk proposed capping income?
If people want to know what society will look like without work and gov't gibs, go to any section 8 housing project or any poor rural area where ppl are on disability because it's all right there.
Or skid row...
My question is when this change to “non-work” happens, won’t there be some categories of work that just won’t need to exist at all? In other words, entire industries that cease to be relevant? Robots and AI won’t even need to replace those jobs because the industry itself is irrelevant. For example, if we move to a cashless society, no atms, no physical banks, no taxes or tax attorneys. The implications of this are mind boggling.
Yes that's right. Less jobs, less cars on the road, less mechanics needed to fix them. AI taking over laptop jobs. Not many laptops needed, so laptop companies go out of business. Less batteries needed, less mining needed and on and on. The elite live in utopia and the rest of us useless eaters are swept aside. So less food production etc. etc.
The elite wealthy already said in public that they want less people alive in the world. What do you think the plandemic test was for?
Underrated comment. So many jobs are built to support other industries, or people who have jobs, etc etc. Like what is the demand for Day Care in a world where no one is going to work? Or Consider the behemoth that is the insurance and medical industries when most care is provided by AI and bots and nobody really has a job or income anymore.
AI will eventually be irrelevant because of AI 😅 It’s a crack in the system.
Maybe soon enough we’ll just be put to sleep into whatever reality we want
The real problem is that we were sold the dream of never having to work because of automation. Automation is already here and as it moves forward it will begin (rather continue) to take jobs away from people. But the problem is that we can't live in a system where the jobs we used to do have been automated and capitlism is still the only economic system. Capitalism is all about who owns the means of production, the capital, the robots and the AI systems. Most of us won't own any of it. Which means we'd be displaced without some sort of universal basic income. But I can imagine lots of wealthy people continuing to influence the very people we elect to federal and state government not to pass laws in favor of universal income. Also, we're so used to living in a tier economical system that it's going to be so difficult to get out of thinking that way. To some extent it seems like the advent of AI and robotics will force us to live in a system akin to communism. I guess as long as someone figures out a way to have our basic needs met in a very humane way, then we can have lots of time to enjoy early retirement, even if you're in your 20s.
Sounds just like communism doesn't it.
You won't have the additional income to enjoy life if your basic needs are only met. You won't be able to afford eating out; vacations any leisure activities.
If you want to save yourself 25 minutes just go to the author's article and read it. Beats watching a 30 minute video that parrots the original article. One day AI will replace this video with a decent, summarized version.
Sorry, couldn't resist 🤣.
BTW, they said the same thing during the industrial revolution. And then again in the 50s and 60s during the emergence of computing. And then again in the late 90's early 00's with the internet and e-commerce.
In each of these historical examples, the initial fear was that technological advancements would lead to widespread job losses and economic hardship. However, the eventual outcome was more complex. While some jobs were indeed made obsolete, new types of employment and industries emerged, often leading to overall economic growth and improved standards of living.
P.S. that last paragraph came from an LLM.
Wrt "they said that about the industrial revolution" the difference is back then, they were simply making more efficient tools, which made workers more productive but and increased output and made things cheaper. Now we are not simply creating better tools, we are creating the workers themselves to operate the tools. It is the human workers themselves who will end up as redundant as the handloom in a post powerloom world.
An LLM that is riffing on charlatans like Yann LeCun, Melanie Mitchell, Josha Bach and other pie in the sky AI ambassadors.
The AI revolution is in a completely different category than the ones preceding it. Duh.
Its just for entertainement fool
They weren’t inventing a superior species to Homo sapiens during the Industrial Revolution
Tose revolution automated labor, this one automates the human brain, and eventually the human body
The South Park episode with the ultra rich handymen is going to be reality soon
Am currently working with soil biology, def feel like farming and cultivation will come back. Even with modern AG tech with automation, ad rather grow my own goods but still keep my ear to the ground with tech
What none of these guys reporting on AI and job losses are mentioning is the fact that they are trying to basically make people cyborgs that connect with the tech. So who will have jobs? Probably whoever would be willing to give up their humanity. What about those who don't? "they had a choice"
Mark of the beast
@@Wealthward💯
A lot of people are NOT saying "Well, we'll just find new Jobs Yada Yada Yada." They are worried about losing their employment and not being able to survive. Nobody asked for this. It only benefits a very small minority of corporate Tech CEO'S. AI scraped all of the internet without our consent or knowledge to "learn" anything it produces. With all these former consumers losing employment who is going to buy anything they have to sell?
The rich & those still employed?
Thanks for that sane comment, so much of the rest of these comments cheering the destruction of jobs is just utter madness. It's like they have absolutely zero appreciation that paradigms of money/power don't undergo some spiritual transformation aligned with their wishful thinking.
@@snowflakemelter7171 You think that's gonna be enough after a massive loss of jobs to sustain them? We are a consumer economy. If there is a massive loss of Jobe people are not gonna be consumers anymore (goodbye netflix! goodbye Uber Eats! those are the first to go).
@@flickwtchr Yeah, it's either the Pseudo Philosophizing, or the Sci Fi sky-net type of Apocalypse. That's what they are thinking about.
@@flickwtchr 1 in 10 comments at most is cheering it including me all i see is doomers like op
UBI - universal basic income. For an economy to be successful there needs to be customers with money to buy the goods that the manufacturing sector makes or customers who need the services of the service sector. IE it’s necessary for the general populace to have money. If we are all (95%) put of work due to AGI and robots, we won’t have money to buy the goods or services.
If goods aren’t bought, companies collapse, if services can’t be bought, those service companies go bankrupt. UBI must be paid to everyone to ensure the economy can operate.
UAI - universal average income. The economy has to have the same volume of money in the hands of the populace for the economy to continue operating as it used to.
Correcto 🤘
as soon as UBI comes in people will just raise the price of everything unfortunately
Robot CEO doesn't need bonuses, so all goods can be free
@@genitusritus True, but the owners of the robot company will want their wealthy lifestyles to continue, that means we have to pay.
I’ve been following developments in AI and have read a few books like The Coming Wave, written by the founder of Anthropic, and this is probably going to be the hardest problem humanity has ever faced.
Not having a job, or being able to own a business that can compete with AI, is something we have never thought was even remotely possible, but here we are
What will we do with our time? I really don’t know how this will play out.
The Coming Wave! Loved that book.
I've been a gaming addict for over 30 years. For me the answer is simple. Same thing I did when I spent 6+ years unemployed learning to grow. I will game, mostly MMOs, and travel again.
This problem is not as hard as people think, it simply requires a shift in perspective.
Settle down. It's decades away and very over exaggerated.
@@damon79 So, will your son have to just "deal with it"?
I honestly don’t think all jobs can be replaced by AI. Will AI start cleaning toilets and places like hotels, hospitals etc. as any place or shop needs cleaning. How will AI do the job of a social worker or a care home employee who looks after the elderly with dementia and washes, feeds them etc. There are so many countries with aging populations. Someone has to work in all the jobs related to that. Also is AI going to work in prisons, be the hospital porter or do the job of a nurse on an oncology ward? Is AI going to fix my washing machine or my boiler when it breaks? Is AI going to restock the shelves in my corner supermarket and cook and deliver food? What about the travel industry, waiters, cabin crew, opticians, barbers, haidressers, bus drivers and so many others? Is AI going to fix my teeth as well and prescribe medication? Do the ob gyn smear tests, deliver babies? Is AI also going to collect my bins and organise and hold a funeral?
It is time not to have kids, imagine if you have kids and you are unemployed
Don't worry, Elon will have more...😂😂😂😂
Four Years ago, the USA had Andrew Yang as a presidential candidate. American couldn't appreciate what he was saying at the time about the need for UBI.
I sorta went through the full range of emotions on this one. Being unemployed I identified with the dark beginnings of the article. Towards the end it was a little more inspiring. Being an android developer, I'm working on my own projects trying to keep motivation finding things to do.
I work in as an executive in a multinational company in Luxembourg and I go to many c-level meetings and the new WEF directives are: don't hire where you cannot fire since in 3 years AI will replace 20% of the current jobs and in 5 years 40% of the current jobs. On one side now the governments (and the Pope) are devising a plan to tax AI and to maintain employment somehow, on the other side are the financial institutions and the corporations lobbying to hold the government from taking the profit they expect to make and to pass laws allowing employees to be replaced. What I see is that the Earth Sabbath plan from the Pope will gain traction and governments will be offered to have a similar model than Germany has currently, in which almost everything closes on Sunday.
I cannot go into details otherwise I will expose myself, my advise is to buy a piece of land and be ready to grow food which will became very expensive soon.
Yikes! You don’t think people will revolt if food becomes unaffordable? I think it will have to basically become free else people will dismantle governments (by force).
data will become artificial based on the laws of physics simulated by human made data when you use youre phones…which will power ai’s that take your jobs creativity
true, but nothing in ai that says you can not generate your own wealth.
Food and other stuff will be "free", as long as you give up some form of personal agency and privacy so the A.I. system can use you as a data mine (I would say data will be the future currency - probably together with energy credits (batteries?)).
And to do that they'll have to put sensors and trackers on you, that can constantly monitor your brain wave patterns and senses.
Also somewhere in your body that you actively use to interact with interfaces.
A mark on the head and on the hand.
You lost me at the Pope.
When the next leap arrives, AGI level agents will replace most knowledge workers. They wont be chatting, they will be doing tasks. Anybody trying to get a "knowledge worker" position will need to be augmented with a Co-Pilot .
Things will be extremely competitive.
And yes normalcy bias is huge right now, so i'm thinking a lot of people
will be caught off guard.
95% of population aren't ready for this
Yeah so many people think it's all hype, their jaw might drop soon.
When will that be? 😂
@@snarkyboojum. u not paying attention.Next class models will be in 2025 more than likely.wont be like gpt4o ,so don't be shocked.Everyone is talking shyt right now until Sam Altman drops another bomb on society.then everyone will be lining up with their credit cards guaranteed.
a lot of the jobs you are mentioning humans will do, like babysitting or whatever, can be done by the parents who no longer have jobs
residential plumbing is hard work, it’s pretty nasty at times, but most people can figure it out if they aren’t working. in many areas like hvac, you will still need special tools that are very expensive or require special training , but with your idle time, you can do 80-90% of the time consuming work and have the specialist do the last 10-20%
if you actually listened. he said those jobs are most likely safe for while.
He’s saying that it won’t be as necessary to outsource such jobs to other people if you yourself aren’t preoccupied with a 9-5. And so those industries would be affected too
Oh whew!!!!!!!!!! Now I know that 10s of millions of jobs disappearing in the US alone in the next decade will work out just fine!!!!!
@@flickwtchr You need robots to do actual jobs. All of these computer jobs you guys shouldn't even have aren't jobs in the first place so good riddance.
So why can't AIs do plumbing?
Even people who should know this are completely blocking it out. They don't even want to think about it. The problem is not that this is going to happen, but how the governments will handle so the economy will not collapse
Why do some people seem to think this will lead in an utopia? This will be a nightmare for those of us who don't have massive amounts of savings! UBI? Really? When they're already so strict on who is now getting wellfare or not? Come on!
AI may automate quite a few jobs, but I don't see it generating anything new whatsoever or do any higher level reasoning such as suggesting a truly new invention (like it was mentioned in this video). It just regurgitates training data. And I don't expect that to change in 5 years with more compute or multimodality, which is all they are currently doing. There will also be a huge bottleneck with energy that they cant surpass. For the next level of LLMs they will probably need 10 nuclear powerplants worth of energy. Going beyond that will be hard.
A therapist doesn't have to empathize with the patient. It should guide the patient to resolve their problems. An A.I. might even be better at that.
I am very sure our nerdy Tech Bros will not sleep till AGI is achieved. They are already pumped up and there is no looking back.
We are screwed. In many ways.
Correction: Until we build the Singularity.
just like the metaverse... and VR... and crypto...
“The government is not babysitters” was perfect! And that’s why I’m writing my congressman this weekend about work and the dangers of AI starting with the paper by Juergen Schmidhuber, showing why a utility function won’t be able to be a “stop button,” to instrumental goals, markov decision processes, etc. it’s INSANE to me how little press this topic gets but the more people are aware the better.
This assumes scaling LLMs and more data will lead to AGI. There is a possibility AI stagnates with diminishing returns until the next breakthrough. That next breakthrough could be decades from now. Also possible AGI just isn’t possible. No one actually knows.
Thank you
Even if agi doesn’t happen we still will all probably lose jobs. Ai is making people so much more efficient like what the…
But that wont help hes narrative for "give me your money and I would guide you before next year terminator ends the world as you know" 🤣
The hype is just too much and there's massive investment into it.. it's an obviously solvable product, it's just a matter of efficiency.
This is also an extremely likely possibility
The thing with "Nostalgic Jobs", is not so much about preference but accountability. There are times we want accountability. We want to be able to go back to the person we put in charge of something to ask questions. AI and Robots cant do this. This is an important aspect of what jobs will probably remain human for some time - this includes law and medicine. However AI will still decimate the profession while allowing for different employment as it becomes more clerical as we allow AI to do the heavy lifting in these areas with humans being accountable.
Its especially amplified if there is no recourse for correction after an issue.
With the other jobs, If AI makes a mistake with writing a report or some other content issue - we can fix it after. If AI gives your aging parent the wrong medication there is neither accountability or ability to fix. The sex work thing is questionable. People prefer real humans for relationships but for pure sexuality AI generated porn can destroy the need for human intimacy as we have seen with regular porn. The ability to cast exactly what you want to see/participate in is unmatched by a real person.
I gave Claude 3.5 a physics problem out of Holliday and Resnick. These question are for first year
physics and engineering majors. It solved the problem in about 10 seconds with full explanation.
Would have been nice 2 semesters ago
@@FaCiSmFTW I could have made for a great tutor.
It's possible it has been trained in that data?
Unless you're born into wealth, being out of work and living off minimal government handouts doesn't lead you towards to a great life. What will happen to formal education when there's no point to it?
Idiocracy
The key is to cut down living expense so you will not lose sleep if recessions hit. IMHO government should waive property taxes altogether for unemployed so they don't become homeless.
No. You vill own nussing!
In Dogon society, males claim that they basically work only 2 months a year, at planting and harvest. The rest of the time they sit around enjoying each other’s company. In fact, observe nature. Birds and mammals just lie around and/or observe what’s going on most of the time. I opine that post the agricultural revolution, humans spent their free time in wordplay, music, sport, home building, and, well, warfare.
So, I’m guessing that we will return to this way of life.
Yeah, they made all the women work in gathering food. Sounds good to me.
She's absolutely right. 3 years to the end of work is reasonable for most knowledge workers because of AGI from 2025 onwards, perhaps delayed a bit through regulations and ASI from 2028 onwards, perhaps also delayed a bit. We need UBI from 2026 onwards the latest.
I'm pretty skeptical UBI will be here anytime soon. It's such an alien concept to our capitalist system. Congress will first need to experience a massive loss in tax revenue due to unprecedented unemployment. Then they'll bend to the will of any lobbying group that promises them to refill the coffers. We'll be last in line to receive anything. Besides, if everyone is making the same amount of $ then inflation will skyrocket, devaluing any currency allocated to Joe Schmo.
In the US, it simply will not happen that there will be a UBI sufficient to pay for housing, food, healthcare, dental care, utilities, transportation, etc etc etc. And any UBI that does happen will require biometric identification, surveillance of every penny spent and on what, and a social credit scoring system to determine if you are worthy to continue receiving it. Can't you just smell the free dumb?
Communists promised basic income too. So who's in charge? You will eat bugs and like it. It is all you get this month.
I find it funny a few years ago stuck up tec people were telling the trades to "learn to code" now there jobs are first on the chopping block.. the trades will be the very last jobs to be taken over by AI.. talk about irony. 😂
Around 5 years ago we were saying it will never write code or do art. Don't be so confident the trade jobs are safe.
There will be a star trek future for some, for the majority of the people it will be 'The Road'
Basically like every time in human history something of that magnitude has happened. Same with the industrial revolution. People with capital have been very well off, and got exponentially richer since they could build factories to produce fabrics. Most people just got displaced from their home, and worked themselves to death in said factories, even though from today's point of view it was an important time, that made way for our current standard of living.
Times of disruption are always a bad spot to be for most segments of the population.
why? Technology historically is deflationary.
@@IMMetaverse there's a finite amount of arable land on the planet. How will goods and services be distributed? Even if things went 100% good and people live in abundance there will still be the inevitable outcome of the mouse utopia.
@@1x93cm mouse utopia ended in failure not because of lack of resources but because of over breeding and lack of space we are not mice, we're intelligent and very adaptable when we're worried about future resources we breed less you can see all over the world people refusing to have children because of global warming and when we needed more workforce we bred boomers. it's silly to compare us to simple mice
@@Nanohamage it ended because of behavioral sink not because of lack of resources. Socially the mouse colonies collapsed. Parents wouldn't take care of their children, men and women stopped procreating and spent all their time preening. Some mice never left the nest (hikkikomori). The whole point of the experiment was that in abundance, survival strategies that were taken for granted completely collapsed which led to a behavioral sink. Abberant and bizarre counter productive strategies took hold leading to collapse. The fact people are breeding less in spite of growing resources is proof of human behavioral sink and thats ignoring all sorts of bizarre and abberant behavioral and dysgenic choices that people are making.
I like most am in a position to compare and contrast. I can safely say, im far more miserable when im employed than when i am unemployed. The only down side to being unemployed is eventually running out of the means to go out and do things that I enjoy, which is to say running out of money. I knew a guy that worked very hard for a few a months or a year at a time, and then just stop for as long as his accumulated money would last him before repeating. I think If i could afford to be unemployed, I would be significantly happier all around. To me there is truly no worse feeling than waking up to my alarm, which indicates that its time to go to work. I got to sleep tired, I wake up tired, the hours not only drag but feel wasted and by the time I get home, i have no energy to enjoy myself. I just sleep, wake up, go to work, repeat. I hate it.
As long as we can get decent living with UBI I am fine with it. Not many people like working up to their 70's. But, if they want to give us like 500$ UBI and expect us to comply, Things will go bad quick.
4k a month after taxes please and i'll be a good boy
@@drblitz3092 That sucks for those used to more income who aren't going to be satisfied staying home and never doing anything fun with their lives.
It's kind of important to remember that for hundreds of thousands of years prior to the industrial revolution, the vast majority of humans did not in fact have jobs. The real trick is to maintain something like the current civilization while not having any jobs.
I am a software developer all my skills that I have been developing since I was a kid will be obsolete soon. However software engineering is complex enough occupation that at that level AI will be able to replace all digital jobs. So that is a huge piece of economy if not the biggest piece, so the economy would rapidly collapse and government will have to do something very quickly. So hopefully we get something like UBI before I become unemployable and unable to take care of myself.
Congress can't even agree over eliminating Daylight Savings Time. Can you imagine them making unprecedented changes to the economy in an expedient manner?
Do you really think like this? Then why its your job not done by an indian guy who earns much less already? it's not so simple trust me, society works as it works, a change in society is not gonna happen just overnight only because AI can do complex stuff. It would be gradual, perhaps we work less time, and we do more supervisation than actual production. Also add that anyone (including the guy making this video) into AI benefits from this narrative, moreover money its nothing but a number on some Database, you better than anyone should know well that has no real value at all, so the worst it can happen is that inflation blows economy and we all get free stuff or riot.
a software engineer listening to non software engineers predicting that he's about to lose his job to a bunch of funny little functions put in a funny array , that does funny little interpolations and extrapolations .
@@gunnerandersen4634 There is already historic inequality in the US, and this AI revolution is going to make that much much worse. You do realize that homelessness, already a big problem in the US will become much much worse. But hey, it's no big deal, right?
@@flickwtchr the reason homelessness is problem because everybody comes to a city for a job which is expensive when you don't have to work you can live anywhere that's huge reduction in house price on top of that at least some part of the building house process if not whole is going to be automated making it even cheaper to produce
Being able to stretch out 1 minute of content to a video like this is pretty amazing
Going back to basics folks. Live off whatever land you have
then you'll need money to pay property taxes, which are going to be used to pay the UBI to the less fourtunates , so eventually on the hipotetical case you made your "self-sustentable" your are ending up without money, so you'll be enforced to leave your land. no matters what, the system crush you.
I work in a call center type place.. but it's work from home. Much of our processes could be automated. A lot of non-call processes like "does this display as over 50 miles. If so, re-assign it to a different vendor, as this vendor is limited to 50 mile trips." Idk how it hasn't happened yet. Just waitin for the AI takeover.
And the AI voices, paired with LLMs, are getting way better. I'm pretty sure a lot of customers would rather talk to the LLM. Like think about it, they could scream their frustrations at it and no one would have hurt feelings about it. Whereas now some people would be like "sir, i'm going to have to ask you to refrain from using that language or i'll have to disconnect the call." Plus the LLM is able to grasp complex ideas so it could understand any query they're calling about. Plus, a lot of our job is typing what occurred in the call, as notes, in the software. The AI could type that instantly and it'd be way more detailed and concise than our people are. I guess the hard part would be pairing that voice chatting LLM with an AI that could actually navigate our software; so it could do both simultaneously while on a call. Heck, now you could probably just ask Claude Sonnet 3 to code it.
I writing software to replace call center peoples. Stt rag llm tts.
@@vsigal You're missing the entire point of customer service. The whole reason I need to talk to customer service, is that I need a problem solved that isn't documented.
AI will take all laptop jobs away. What are those people going to do then. It's already happening and people are loosing their jobs as we speak. It's only going to get worse.
Do worry. Trust me will be even more jobs. Its will be very different. Thats all.
@@vsigal What jobs will there be? Prompt Engineering? The ultimate dead end job.
All AGI had to do is increase productivity which it is and will do more each day. If I employ 100 people and I can introduce AGI systems into my workplace that mske things 90% more efficient, I can lay off 90 people and maintain the same productivity level while reducing my human capital labor cost by 90%. Those 10 remaining people can use AGI agents to do all the work the 90 people that were laid off were doing. 90% of the public will have their basic needs met such as badic housing, food, clothes, transportation and live a meager socialized existence while being monitored for compliance. The other 10% will have vast wealth and power and live a Roman Senator lifestyle.
You make an absolutely wild assumption that there will be a UBI in the US sufficient to pay for the things you list. That is pie in the sky wishful thinking, even if you couch that in realistic terms regarding the inequality on steroids that the AI revolution will produce.
Spot on !
ok, so now you are a food company, who is going to buy your products? if none has money to pay for?
At least my industry is safe. I teach horseback riding. Humans will have to always care for the animals, and teach riding.
Yes, but you're also not adding in the humanoid robotic factor combined with the advanced ai models. Industries will be rocked all for the desperate pursuit of profit and corporate survival.
Did you see Elon's most recent Tesla shareholder demo? It's wild. He's saying 2+/1 robot to human priced at less than a car.
"Once you've had a lover-robot, you'll never want a real man again. Once you've had a lover-robot, you'll never want a real man again. " - gigolo jo
To understand what a post labor culture might be like look at Philippino and other similar cultures where unemployment is extremely high, far higher than official numbers. People get along. They raise a little food. They live a lot more frugally. They live more closely together in larger many generational homes and communities. They take care of each other. They have far lower obesity rates and get more exercise. They socialize more.
There is a lot of poverty in the phillipines. The same thing could be said about nigeria with an unemployment rate of 34%. What you are saying may be true but everyone will become really poor.
My God, really? It's called extreme poverty. Romanticize poverty all you want, but it is still poverty. And you cheer generational housing, just unbelievable.
You heard it here folks! An AI tech bro telling people "look, that nice middle class income you currently have that pays for a safe neighborhood, a few dinners out a month, healthcare, dental care, your kids education, and all of the other expenses, boy do I have a deal for you!!!!!!!! Soon, you can just unburden yourself of your home, move in with other families or back to living with your parents, and you can all grow food together to make ends meet!!!!!!
It is just utter insanity the lengths AI revolutionaries will go to put a positive spin on the societal breakdown ahead.
AI and robots will take all the jobs eventually, then humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
@@flickwtchr wow, you love to gaslight.
Tech Hype->valuation->growth-> pay yourself . Rinse and repeat
Lol! News flash: someone selling something tells you it it's so good you should be scared. This is what use to be called PR. LLMs are good for boiler plate code and learning APIs - that's were it ends. If I'm writing a new API from scratch that does something unique LLMs don't have any or enough data to be trained on them.
I work in AI and there are theortical constraints that stop AI doing human tasks. Even the fields where AI is completely suitable like coding require P vs NP level of solution.
Then there are practical constraints like the power consumption and the cost of industrial gpus. The sensors they need and the datasets. A lot of data doesn't exist in a convienient electronic form. There has been research that shows there is no generalisation or singularity where we just make chat gpt smart enough it can generalise to other forms of data. The process of generating and learning from data requires real world interaction, which is slow in computation terms.
Then there is the human element that we can't even describe what we want to optimise. It's no good saying the machine can optimise itself either. A machine with complete freedom to make its own decisions would be dangerous and impractical.
It's very easy to talk about AI when you have a toy model and implementation is left as an exercise. The only company making real money out of this is Nvidia as they are selling the shovels to the gold rush.
There might be more software addons to machines you get in factories that automate the inspection for example but we are long way off generalised AI or robotics.
I hope during the debate next week the moderator asks them what AI is.
I remember like it was yesterday when Trump was talking about "unbelievable technologies coming" years ago.... .
I’ve read this article. She’s saying what we’ve all been thinking, and in a very lucid way.
A Super AI will design a robot plumber in an instant.
I've been telling my family for about 1 year now , I'm already unemployed as a business analyst. I think so few people do not understand the gravity of this forthcoming revolution.. just burrowing their heads in the sand being sheeple..
I'm an English teacher and still haven't been outdone by AI and there are no signs that it ever will.
Don't worry because it won't. These people are hype freaks
test this out with the latest Claude model. You will be blown away.
I'm one as well, and as language teachers we're ESPECIALLY LIKELY to be replaced by LLM-s and constantly-updating AI interfaces.
@@diguification I haven't seen any AI that does the same thing l do in my classes, not even close.
Sadly, you are kidding yourself. As she mentioned, some parents will want human tutors. That's your future.
We could lose our jobs in three years due to AI? Who could be so stupid to believe that? It blows my mind how stupid some people are.
More accurate to say there will be no market for most college grads. Basic human mental tasks will become obsolete. Entrepreneurs, and anyone who works with their hands, will continue to be employed.
Displacement will likely make hand jobs less lucrative.. Many white collar could become blue collar workers. White collars will be able to pick up different fields easier as they've been exercising their brains every day 40 hours a week rather than just wearing down their body doing repetitive manual tasks.
@@Lolatyou332I am a plumber. There are many white collar people who are certainly smart enough to do blue collar work, but a lot of them could not handle the physical aspects of the job. It's really hard work and destroys your body.
As for whether or not people in the future would be happy without any job, it's simple, some of them will be happy and some won't, those that won't would simply start to adopt new hobbies for themselves to do instead of working in a job and it would make them finally do whatever they always actually loved doing or wanted doing.
AI and robots will take all the jobs eventually, then humans will become useless eaters and will be swept aside.
Hmm, I suspect in five years, AGI will be able to show empathy, better than a human.
5 years ago it already showed more empathy than most humans I know
When stupid people have too much free time, they break things.
There are those of us who want this future because we'd love to live that life and those of us who _think_ they want this future because they can't conceptualize it.
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We are stupid. We are going extinct chasing conveniences. Maybe we deserve it too.
🌎 = 🙈⌚️
crime will probably always continue to pay. regardless of AI taking over whatever jobs, people will still be dealing drugs.
which might grow to be a huge problem if switching to UBI doesn't come fast enough.
If the drug users don't have a job, they can't afford to buy drugs!
People working manual jobs like plumbing would also be affected. Just ask the AI what are you experiencing and how to fix it and you fix your own car problem or plumbing or whatever.
We may start seeing hardware unavailable to the public unless you belong to a union.
Thanks for the daily updates!
As someone who works phones in the time of the birth of AI, customer service is a nostalgia service. People call in to "talk to a person", which is a common phrase used to get their call directed. And, the functions we do aren't systemizable, and the information we have to know updates regularly, creating more complexity and systemizability.
Garbage, even investors are fed up with AI bubble and have started pulling plugs on AI . Few year back everyone was in crypto bandwagon with crypto currency’s, nft and making big claims, all busted . Ai can’t even replace customer support 😂
Humans and Ai both are lousy at customer support
The idea that a plumber won’t be impacted I don’t get as surely if you lay off millions of workers a lot of them will retrain in trades like plumbing many with redundancy payments that allow them to get good training and equipment. Collapsing the value of the job, also guys with no job tend not to have new bathrooms or kitchens fitted reducing the demand.
That’s ridiculous. It’s not gonna end employment everywhere. You still need people to do certain jobs so that’s just insane.
They said that. I will still employed. Think of everyone who went to work during Covid. Minus retail.
Except... those people need to get paid to work.
Who will pay them?
Will we go back to forced unpaid labor?
More than a century ago, the arrival of the Ford Model T heralded sending the majority of horses to the glue factory within a generation. Today, AI is about ready to hit it's Model T moment. Like the model T, it doesn't need to be conscious or self aware, just smart enough to do many jobs cheaper and better than most people.
So are most people about to be sent to the glue factory within a generation?
we're not responsible for other people's happiness. let's go.
It is a nicer world though, where we take some responsibility for each others happiness. Every time I am in a conversation, I think about my expression and body language because I know it can change how the person I interact with feels. Also when I vote, I think about the consequences for the whole planet. There is a lot more joy and trust in societies where people take some responsibility for other people's happiness.
wait until theyre hungry enough and see what they think, then
@@itzhexen0 you should be
Actually, the AI automation doesn't even need to be as good as the average human, in a number of things: it only needs to be "good enough" for the price. That price involves possibly accepting a certain amount of outright failures, or anything in between.
Maybe she is just selling since she works in Anthropic?
How can you say that... Do you think this companies making AI are overhyping this for their own benefit? no way man, that's nonsense (note the ironic tone)
The problem is we have built a world were a person's "usefulness" and their "worth" is linked, and now we are building Machines that will be so "useful" most of us are becoming "worthless".
I see a paradigm shift on the horizon, we won't allow ourselves to become worthless to the point of no return, but first we must become worthless enough to realise something new about this ever present Reality we share...
An egg doesn't have the same texture before verses after it is cooked, nore does a person or people.
All love, from Iraq ❤
Iraq has internet?
@@Alga_Kazakhstan_Alga No, I am connected through our neighboring country, Jordan.
@@Growalotmore makes sense
Babies NEED human contact. Cant replace that with a robot. There will be something lifeless and odd about a generation raised partially by a machine.