I'm predicting American Fiction will win because it's already won the Critics Choice, BAFTA (on its only nomination), and USC Scripter. The last one is a VERY key indicator of what will win the Oscar.
Your point at 10:35 is exactly why 51% of the vote is the cutoff to end the redistributions. Even if you gave every single one of Poor Things' votes to The Holdovers, it would be mathematically impossible to pass Oppenheimer at that point.
The key takeaway for me is how popular Poor Things was with this group. But it did not get an ensemble nod at SAG. I am sweating this category too, though, I will admit. We're not really seeing much strength for Poor Things - like it did not win British Film at BAFTA when it should have easily. It also lost the Eddie to The Holdovers, where it also should have won. So I dunno!
Very fun experiment once again. Especially for the other categories. I have Barbie as a surprise upset in my predictionfor adapted, although I am fully prepared that it goes to American Fiction or Oppenheimer.
Let’s go Oppenheimer!!! It’s my favorite movie of 2023!! Lily Gladstone vs Emma Stone… That’s a crazy race!!! Also, I love your hat Ryan Casselman!! One more thing! I can’t wait to see your “Oscar Stack” video!! I like seeing that one too! It’s awesome!! Keep up the good work!!
Hey Sasha!! 🙂 Thanks for sharing the video on Awards Daily! EEAAO got more number one votes last year, but Oppenheimer finished stronger. Had more numbers twos and threes by far and hardly any last place votes. Definitely a widely admired movie in this experiment. 🤗@@sasha-stone
@@RyanCasselmanalso Oppenheimer has one every major award for film there is.. not other categories but film itself.. golden globe, critics choice, bafta, sag ensemble,dga, and pga
I sense lily. But just barely. The only recent time that the latest award predictor didn’t result in Oscar best actress is back in 2013 when emmanuelle riva (bafta winner) won over Jennifer Lawrence (sag winner). Another one was in 2003 when Renee zellweger (sag winner) beat Nicole Kidman (bafta winner). Renee lost because she was ‘technically’ competing with Catherine zeta jones who was nominated for best supporting actress, Oscar voters want to reward one actress but not both. But this year is different. Lily and Emma are the only actresses nominated for their respective films
Robert De Niro didn't deserve to be so far behind. He was perfect in "Killers of the Flower Moon." I'm not saying in any way that the other actors aren't Oscar-worthy - they're all great. 2023 was such a good year for cinema.
Here is my preferential ballot for Best Picture: 1. The Zone of Interest 2. Maestro 3. American Fiction 4. Barbie 5. Anatomy of a Fall 6. Poor Things 7. The Holdovers 8. Killers of the Flower Moon 9. Past Lives 10. Oppenheimer
In regards to adapted screenplay, when LOTR swept in 2004, it didnt win ANYWHERE except Bafta. Mystic river won WGA/USC (Golden globes/Critics Choice screenplay awards went to original screenplays), and LOTR missed Globe/Critics Choice. So it's very possible Oppenheimer gets caught up in the sweep and takes that category, as most preferential ballots I read also choose Oppenheimer. Either way, its really close.
Up in the air also won Globe/Bafta/CC/USC/WGA and lost to Precious, which had editing nomination, and seemed to be more liked by Academy, so if a movie is more well liked overall I think it can win one of those shaky category (Case in point: Jamie Lee Curtis last year)
@@kidwithaphonecameraYeah, but unlike the LOTR, Oppenheimer couldn't even win BAFTA... when Nolan's British. I agree that upsets can happen, but American Fiction is extremely, extremely strong in that category and is the clear, clear frontrunner.
I think 2023 had a lot of really good/great movies! Here's my ranking, and I know I'm a minority here. 1. Past Lives 2. American Fiction 3. Anatomy of a Fall 4. The Holdovers 5. Killers of the Flower Moon 6. Oppenheimer 7. Barbie 8. Poor Things 9. Maestro 10. The Zone of Interest When I did my movie reviews of all these films, I rated Films 1-7 a 9/10⭐, and Films ranked 8-10, I gave them 8/10⭐😁
@@eddistasio644 Even if Dune: Part Two gets nominated and is a huge contender, I can only see it winning if the rest of the field is EXTREMELY weak, which isn't likely.
It's definitely a very unsurprising year. 😃 But always enjoy doing this experiment and wanted to give you all those additional categories that are tougher to call. Cheers!
If you want to milk this, I would love preferential balloting either the viewers or current SAG voters for previous years to see if who won then would win with hindsight. Like Pulp Fiction or Shawshank would probably make more sense as a winner in how it’s thought of now. Basically see the current consensus versus how it was in the past
Noah, I LOVE this idea. I dunno if I can bug the SAG voters anymore than I already do. The once a year is probably already overbearing enough for some of them. But I like the idea of having you all vote and seeing how previous years pan out. Cheers!
This confirms my spidey sense Emma is winning. Gladstone was great but she's a supporting role, there's category fraud here and don't like it. Like the Kate Winslet year. I'm happy she won but it should have been for Revolutionary Road not for The Reader
Best Cinematography: Will win: Oppenheimer Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Costume Design: Will win: Poor Things Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Film Editing: Will win and should win: Oppenheimer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Will win and should win: Maestro Best Original Score: Will win and should win: Oppenheimer Best Original Song: Will win: “What Was I Made For?”-Barbie Should win: “It Never Went Away”-American Symphony Best Production Design: Will win: Barbie Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Sound: Will win and should win: Oppenheimer Best Visual Effects: Will win and should win: The Creator Best Animated Short Film: Will win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired By The Music Of John & Yoko Should win: Ninety-Five Senses Best Live Action Short Film: Will win: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar Should win: Red, White And Blue Best Documentary Short Subject: Will win: The ABCs Of Book Banning Should win: The Last Repair Shop Best Documentary Feature: Will win and should win: 20 Days In Mariupol Best International Film: Will win and should win: The Zone Of Interest Best Animated Feature: Will win and should win: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse Best Original Screenplay: Will win: Anatomy Of A Fall Should win: The Holdovers Best Adapted Screenplay: Will win: American Fiction Should win: Oppenheimer Best Supporting Actor: Will win and should win: Robert Downey, Jr.-Oppenheimer Best Supporting Actress: Will win and should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers Best Actor: Will win: Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer Should win: Bradley Cooper-Maestro Best Actress: Will win and should win: Lily Gladstone-Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Director: Will win: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer Should win: Martin Scorsese-Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Picture: Will win: Oppenheimer Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon
Surprised at Adapted Screenplay’s results at the end there - I really have no clue what’s happening there I love it!
I'm predicting American Fiction will win because it's already won the Critics Choice, BAFTA (on its only nomination), and USC Scripter. The last one is a VERY key indicator of what will win the Oscar.
After watching this video for a few mins I immediately subscribed. The level of effort in this video is amazing. Thanks for producing quality content!
Your point at 10:35 is exactly why 51% of the vote is the cutoff to end the redistributions. Even if you gave every single one of Poor Things' votes to The Holdovers, it would be mathematically impossible to pass Oppenheimer at that point.
I finally understand how preferential ballots work thanks to your video❤
Brilliant video as always. Thanks Ryan and industry voters.
Thanks for all your work, Ryan. It's a lot! Always love seeing how the chips (or marbles) fall.
Thanks Jimmy!!!
Wonderful video! Thank you ❤
Also that Best Actress race is wild 😳
i'm really not feeling these winners this year, but ill be happy to see the zone of interest and anatomy of a fall win their categories
Amazing. I've been predicting Oppenheimer for Best Adapted Screenplay since July and will stick with it after this 😂
The key takeaway for me is how popular Poor Things was with this group. But it did not get an ensemble nod at SAG. I am sweating this category too, though, I will admit. We're not really seeing much strength for Poor Things - like it did not win British Film at BAFTA when it should have easily. It also lost the Eddie to The Holdovers, where it also should have won. So I dunno!
Ryan: "So I only collected SEVENTY ONE responses."
Jesus, how many people in the Academy do you know, Ryan?!
Haha. 71 responses from my participants. No Academy members (that I'm aware of). Mostly SAG.
Very fun experiment once again. Especially for the other categories. I have Barbie as a surprise upset in my predictionfor adapted, although I am fully prepared that it goes to American Fiction or Oppenheimer.
Let’s go Oppenheimer!!!
It’s my favorite movie of 2023!!
Lily Gladstone vs Emma Stone…
That’s a crazy race!!!
Also, I love your hat Ryan Casselman!!
One more thing!
I can’t wait to see your “Oscar Stack” video!!
I like seeing that one too!
It’s awesome!!
Keep up the good work!!
I'm going with Oppenheimer!!!
I'm happy Poor Things was at least third. And I'm proud I put Oppenheimer last.
I know it's a small sample size, but it still gives me more confidence about sticking with emma in best actress.
Oppie WAY AHEAD...has there ever been a movie with that many number 1 votes?
Did you watch the video?
I see you answered that...
Hey Sasha!! 🙂 Thanks for sharing the video on Awards Daily! EEAAO got more number one votes last year, but Oppenheimer finished stronger. Had more numbers twos and threes by far and hardly any last place votes. Definitely a widely admired movie in this experiment. 🤗@@sasha-stone
@@RyanCasselmanalso Oppenheimer has one every major award for film there is.. not other categories but film itself.. golden globe, critics choice, bafta, sag ensemble,dga, and pga
i love your videos brot!!
I live for this video
Ryan, are you going to share your predictions for all categories before the show on Sunday?
Yes! I'm hoping to get that video out tomorrow! :)
What a great video
Best actress🤯🤯
My brain says Lilly Gladstone
My heart says Emma Stone
SAME. My brain says Lily and my gut says Emma. Both have led my wrong many times and don't know who to trust! 😅
I sense lily. But just barely. The only recent time that the latest award predictor didn’t result in Oscar best actress is back in 2013 when emmanuelle riva (bafta winner) won over Jennifer Lawrence (sag winner). Another one was in 2003 when Renee zellweger (sag winner) beat Nicole Kidman (bafta winner). Renee lost because she was ‘technically’ competing with Catherine zeta jones who was nominated for best supporting actress, Oscar voters want to reward one actress but not both. But this year is different. Lily and Emma are the only actresses nominated for their respective films
My brain and my heart say Lily Gladstone at this point.
Emma = you see, hear and feel she's acting, Lilly = you forget she's acting. My vote goes to Sandra :)*
Lily gets my vote.
Robert De Niro didn't deserve to be so far behind. He was perfect in "Killers of the Flower Moon."
I'm not saying in any way that the other actors aren't Oscar-worthy - they're all great. 2023 was such a good year for cinema.
the voter that put Killers #1 and Past Lives #2 has great taste!
Here is my preferential ballot for Best Picture:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Maestro
3. American Fiction
4. Barbie
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. Poor Things
7. The Holdovers
8. Killers of the Flower Moon
9. Past Lives
10. Oppenheimer
Just curious why u have Oppenheimer last?
YAY!!!!!
In regards to adapted screenplay, when LOTR swept in 2004, it didnt win ANYWHERE except Bafta. Mystic river won WGA/USC (Golden globes/Critics Choice screenplay awards went to original screenplays), and LOTR missed Globe/Critics Choice. So it's very possible Oppenheimer gets caught up in the sweep and takes that category, as most preferential ballots I read also choose Oppenheimer. Either way, its really close.
Up in the air also won Globe/Bafta/CC/USC/WGA and lost to Precious, which had editing nomination, and seemed to be more liked by Academy, so if a movie is more well liked overall I think it can win one of those shaky category (Case in point: Jamie Lee Curtis last year)
@@kidwithaphonecameraYeah, but unlike the LOTR, Oppenheimer couldn't even win BAFTA... when Nolan's British. I agree that upsets can happen, but American Fiction is extremely, extremely strong in that category and is the clear, clear frontrunner.
Remember CODA??????
Great video! It's Anatomy of A Fall tho, rather than THE Fall.
Thank you! I've been doing that ALL year. While editing I was like 🤦♂
I think 2023 had a lot of really good/great movies! Here's my ranking, and I know I'm a minority here.
1. Past Lives
2. American Fiction
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. The Holdovers
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Oppenheimer
7. Barbie
8. Poor Things
9. Maestro
10. The Zone of Interest
When I did my movie reviews of all these films, I rated Films 1-7 a 9/10⭐, and Films ranked 8-10, I gave them 8/10⭐😁
You kinda look the Driving Crooner from _I Think You Should Leave_ with your Oppenheimer hat.
Sandra Hüller is Nr.1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It would be amazing for Oppenheimer and Dune 2 to win back to back, two of my favorite modern day directors getting the respect they deserve!
Dune 2 is too sci fi to win best picture
@@eddistasio644 Even if Dune: Part Two gets nominated and is a huge contender, I can only see it winning if the rest of the field is EXTREMELY weak, which isn't likely.
LoL 😂😂😂 was it necessary figuring out who wins?😂😂😂😂
It's definitely a very unsurprising year. 😃 But always enjoy doing this experiment and wanted to give you all those additional categories that are tougher to call. Cheers!
Obligatory stop before the Oscars.
Anatomy of A Fall not THE Fall
Drove my crazy all episode
Great vid tho
*me that drove me crazy reading that
If you want to milk this, I would love preferential balloting either the viewers or current SAG voters for previous years to see if who won then would win with hindsight. Like Pulp Fiction or Shawshank would probably make more sense as a winner in how it’s thought of now. Basically see the current consensus versus how it was in the past
Noah, I LOVE this idea. I dunno if I can bug the SAG voters anymore than I already do. The once a year is probably already overbearing enough for some of them. But I like the idea of having you all vote and seeing how previous years pan out. Cheers!
@@RyanCasselmanYou can always bug us for content! We are happy oblige
My Critics group just did this experiment. Thank goodness we got it right, and named Past Lives our Best Picture.
rooting for sandra hüller
The ballots you used are actually from people in the industry?
Yes. No Academy members though. Most were collected by SAG members and the others were collected by people who work in film or other guild members.
3 Barbie votes going to Oppie and 3 going to Holdovers is so weird 🤨
This confirms my spidey sense Emma is winning. Gladstone was great but she's a supporting role, there's category fraud here and don't like it. Like the Kate Winslet year. I'm happy she won but it should have been for Revolutionary Road not for The Reader
Buddy that thumbnail is a spoiler that's not a spoiler
I didn't want to falsely advertise 😅 But I altered the thumbnail to throw people off.
@@RyanCasselman Thank you for answering bud. Cheers from Spain!
Best Cinematography:
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Costume Design:
Will win: Poor Things
Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Film Editing:
Will win and should win: Oppenheimer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
Will win and should win: Maestro
Best Original Score:
Will win and should win: Oppenheimer
Best Original Song:
Will win: “What Was I Made For?”-Barbie
Should win: “It Never Went Away”-American Symphony
Best Production Design:
Will win: Barbie
Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Sound:
Will win and should win: Oppenheimer
Best Visual Effects:
Will win and should win: The Creator
Best Animated Short Film:
Will win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired By The Music Of John & Yoko
Should win: Ninety-Five Senses
Best Live Action Short Film:
Will win: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
Should win: Red, White And Blue
Best Documentary Short Subject:
Will win: The ABCs Of Book Banning
Should win: The Last Repair Shop
Best Documentary Feature:
Will win and should win: 20 Days In Mariupol
Best International Film:
Will win and should win: The Zone Of Interest
Best Animated Feature:
Will win and should win: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: Anatomy Of A Fall
Should win: The Holdovers
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: American Fiction
Should win: Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win and should win: Robert Downey, Jr.-Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win and should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Best Actor:
Will win: Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Should win: Bradley Cooper-Maestro
Best Actress:
Will win and should win: Lily Gladstone-Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Director:
Will win: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Should win: Martin Scorsese-Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Picture:
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Killers Of The Flower Moon
LOL! Polite pestering ...