US military budget: $850 billion US green energy budget: $20 billion The nuclear power plant 20 miles from my house has been producing carbon free energy 24/7 for 50 years. Build 7 new ones, please.
When they closed one in NY a few years ago I was cringing so hard. We are moving backwards instead of forwards. Can't believe we're going to cede that ground to the Russians, French (to a lesser degree) and Chinese (who are ramping up like crazy).
Umm think more like $600 million, as a WHOLE, looking at DOE annual R&D budget. And nuclear isn't the only option when sun is shining at us. Just that we need to move past PV for goodness and think more pragmatically.
I know a factor is the processing of the spent material by the private sector as Peter said and it makes sense but I’m sure if the government was more concerned with prosperity instead of ruling we would have solutions
What worries me most about this is all the climate refugees this is going to create. Not because I have a problem with refugees, but because there are going to be way too many to handle, and how that is going to influence politics. *People are gonna get scared, and scared people vote for dangerous politicians.*
Why are there going to be "climate refugees"? I agree frightened people make bad decisions when voting. So let's have the government stop scaring people about climate.
@@raymontgomery764 If a few hundred thousand in say Bangladesh get permanently flooded out of their homes they will be considered climate refugees as opposed to other categories of refugees
As a biologist, the factor I don't see being covered is what's standing behind Peter: an intact functioning ecosystem providing innumerable ecosystem services like water infiltration and free carbon sequestration. At 3-4 degrees C warmer, how many of earth's ecosystems stop functioning at 100% efficiency compared to their historical value? And at what percent? We're talking everything from the deep ocean sediments to the tundra and taiga, rainforests, etc. Each one is currently pulling in gigatons of carbon every year. And we really do not know at what point each one will either collapse or be reduced in efficiency. If we lose even 5-10% of that capacity, the climate change problem is going to snowball very rapidly and unpredictably. At that point, the earth itself is going to be outgassing more and more, regardless of what humans do.
this year was the first that forrests did not store more co2 than they release. so the breaking points you assume are in the future have already been past
The biggest danger of global warming may not be what we know can go wrong, it's what we DON'T KNOW can go wrong. Because if we know what can go wrong, we can adapt. If something stops functioning overnight for example and we haven't had the chance to adapt, we will have a problem.
Most carbon dioxide is taken in by the oceans. The oceans are the major driver of CO2 uptake. What makes you think this system will become less "efficient". Why do you assume this system will break down and how would that even look like?
The last 100 years has been filled with alarmist drivel like this. There is a reason we went from fearing the next ice age to global warming to climate change to climate justice. It is a profitable industry. People like you are the reason we are doing ridiculous things like storing carbon underground in a vast infrastructure of waste.
Well, the largest "news" company is owed by a man whose billions are in oil. The oil industry has been in a full court press regarding propaganda around climate change. Thus, Faux "news" viewers have been fed anti-climate change propaganda for over a decade, such that they don't believe it exists. However, what they really are is victims of a billionaire protecting his profit stream......and he has been profoundly successful.....
My father was a meteorologist for the national weather service. I remember him talking about this in the 1970s when I was a little kid sitting around the kitchen table talking to my mom and aunt and uncle who were visiting. They didn’t call it global warming or anything, just that the temperature was slowly rising and that was going to change the amplitude of the jet streams causing greater shifts in weather patterns.
From the 70s to now we have lost 75% of the insects and most of the coral reefs. There was a thing called Aral Sea in the 70s, it changed. Is called "progress", they told us.
We have not lost 75% of the coral reefs. That is simply false. In fact coral reefs are on the rebound at the moment and are flourishing in many places.
Here's what's missing: Photosynthesis operates in a temperature range for the 4 major crops: Wheat, Soy, Rice and Corn...Corn has the highest threshold for heat, the others not so much...if it gets too hot, it doesn't matter how much Water or CO2 the plant has available, it will not process those inputs. Therefore, heat will cap yields or start reducing yields over time. THank you for addressing the topic tho!
I have noticed this. I live on a property in the Hunter Valley, south eastern Australia, and once the temperature gets up around 38 or 40c, (?100F) things just stop growing. And some plants just die. They cook. Doesn’t matter how much water you give them. Mulching helps but obviously there are very finite limits.
It's more that the metabolism in the plants increase with temperature than that something happens with the Photosyntesis. It should be because Corn is an C4 plant it can work faster.
An interesting thing about Australia, the South Eastern corner is indeed getting dryer, however the northern and central desert areas seem to gradually getting wetter, the last time the earth went through a warmer period with the continents in basically the same position they're currently in Australia had rainforest ove much of the northern areas of the continent and most of the central and southern areas were dry woodlands to desert, overall the continent received much more rainfall and was much greener.
The Australian CSIRO or equivalent to NOA in the US showed us 10 years ago that the world is getting Greener the Sahara is Greening at a fantastic rate, due to increased CO2 but the Ideologues don't want you to hear the truth. They need to frighten everybody to keep this lie going. I have just returned from a location on the Sahara Desert where you can see Whale Skeletons', i wonder if the Whales walked to the location over the desert or did the climate change. Since all the Pyramids are built of Limestone which is formed under the Ocean the area called Giza was once under water why to these people lie to us about climate change and tell us it is caused by Man Made CO2 which clearly it is not.
Actually, the Mediterranean is warming fast and this is impacting weather patterns in Southern Europe dramatically. Precipitation increases 12 percent, but alas, so do monster floodings. Seems Spain needs more trees in the uplands. Much more.
Oh, is only getting warm here; as I oftenly joke "this will be the coldest year of the rest of our lives". Some of the tipping points in the climate mechanisms, as the AMOC slown/collapse, Greenland glaciers melting down, permafrost melting and tundra releasing methane are just only starting to converge, so we can expect a speed up in the extreme of the conditions, the amount of catastrophic events and the severity of the episodes.
Wow, congratulations on your impressive :nvestment success! Your discipline and focus on delayed gratification is truly inspiring. I'm curious, what are some of the key factors that you consider when making :nvestment decisions? Do you have any tips for those of us who are just starting to dip our toes into the world of :nvesting? Thanks for sharing your story!
When I tell people I live in Minnesota, they typically think of the movie, "Fargo," and look at me with pity. However, the state motto is, "The land of 10,000 lakes," so drought is not usually a problem. The weather here over the last decade has seemed to improve, from a human viewpoint. It used to be that we had to endure bitter cold and gray for months, while our summers were plagued with brutal humidity. However, the last half-a-decade, we have had sunny winters with lots of snow and the summer humidity has dramatically lessened. In other words, from a single anecdotal perspective, we are winning the climate change lottery.
But hasn't the mosquito population in summer increased, and for longer periods of time? They're not as big as Alaska's mosquitos (aka the 'Alaskan state bird'), but I'll bet they are just as ravenous for a blood meal.
Also Minnesotan here. Last Winter was actually insane for the state (in an arguably good way). We had very little snow, the temperatures only went really low for brief bits of January ish. Otherwise it was light coat or even just sweater territory for most of the "winter", which involved mostly looking at brown-yellow grass/fields on the morning commute. People with icehouses for fishing and snowmobiles were not happy though.
From a Swedish perspective, I can tell you that we have definitely noticed climate change. This is definitely climate, not weather. In Sweden by law, everyone is allowed to have three consecutive weeks of vacation between the months of June and August. Everyone’s fear was that the week they chose for their vacation would get rained out. It was a really genuine fear because it happened a lot. Since 2018 every summer has been very dry. Some summers have been drought like while others have been just enough rain for the farmers. Barely. We now get our rain in the autumn. Silver lining is that no one worries about getting their summer vacations rained out. On the other hand, the farmers are finding it very hard to get the amount of water they need for their crops. Because this country always had reliable rain, we don’t have much of an irrigation infrastructure. If mother nature sees fit to fill the lakes and the water tables in the autumn, then irrigation, it must be.
Willie you should stop and reread what you just wrote. By definition the minimum period of time to evaluate climate is 30 yrs. To claim you have "noticed" a change in climate is idiotic. I'll bet you can't remember what the weather was like on a specific day from 2 months ago.
@@TimothyGasserBS, I have many family members who say similar stories. We have not had real winter weather in 🇵🇱 for years, and when I ask how they spent their Christmas 30-40 years ago the response is always several degrees colder temperatures and several centimeters more snow.
I was just in Sweden for a week in September. It was warm and sunny every day. Everyone I talked to said I was very lucky and that is NOT normal Swedish September weather.
Glaring omissions - sea level rise and the associated mitigation costs and migration, ocean acidification and the associated collapse in most fisheries. But I appreciate him being real about it and not avoiding climate change as a topic.
Also love how granular Peter's assessments are. He's a wealth of knowledge for anything geopolitical, and I find his perspectives useful both in day-to-day conversation, or when making my own videos on similar topics.
@@march8482 That makes sense considering how varied the models are. How much conscious do you think there is towards the 3 degrees Celsius projection, which is what I see most in the media.
@@JamesR1986 "How much conscious do you think there is towards the 3 degrees Celsius projection" What do you mean? People in general don't have to concern themselves with these numbers. That's for policymakers. People just need to accept that society needs to change.
@@march8482 "change" is doing a lot of lifting here. Driving an electric cars is a change. So is accepting a totalitarian regime that dramatically rations the amount of fossil fuel energy we can use. The amount of change we will need to accept is dependent on the scale of problem. And as we live in a democratic system we will have a say as to how much change we want.
@@JamesR1986 "The amount of change we will need to accept is dependent on the scale of problem." Exactly, but like I said, that's for policymakers to determine. It's a matter of risk management and weighing social and economic impacts against each other.
@@GaryStark For some people they'll be eating crow in 5-10 years when the data suddenly changes... or when they admit they didn't really know what they were talking about.
Here's your clue: Manmade climatechangeis 100g HOAX. Doesn't exist. Flat out LIE. Been watching these climate lies for half a century. Literally NONE have come true. None. In the 1970s they told us the Earth was headed into a 10,000 year Ice Age. In the 1980s they screevhed about globalwarming. We all remarked: "Shortest Ice Age EVER!" They screeched that the ice caps were going to melt and flood the globe... by 1992... 1998... 2000... 2004... 2008... 2011... 2019... 2022... *yawn* still waiting... FACT: The sun controls 98% 0f global climate. Volcanoes control 2%. All of mankind throughout all of history COMBINED accounts for 0.0000006% of global climate. Mankind is completely and utterly insignificant to global climate.
Already Canada this year became the globe's 2nd largest Wheat producer behind only Russia. We're seeing enlargement of warm climate zones opening up more crop opportunities.
What are you talking about? The largest wheat producer easily is China globally, India second, typically also above Russia. Exports I guess? The US also I'm sure produces more than Canada despite Wheat being a crop only grown in marginal regions in the US.
Given the (geologically) brief snapshot of this planet, we as a species has been able to observe (and even less, been able to record), all of the planet's ecosystems have persisted on a knife's edge. It seems apparent our efforts / negligence, has pushed it from this edge. With myriad, intertwined, and highly dynamic systems being involved, what comes next will be difficult to accurately predict. Might as well forecast the location and severity of the 'big one' earthquake. But i think what shall come, will benefit the planet as a whole; that being, a significant population correction of us, as a species. We are part of nature and thus, are not immune to its ill-effects.
There would likely be some serious depopulation going on simultaneously, so demand for energy will drop also. Transport of fertilizers won't likely match the increased rainfall in the US Midwest, so don't count on double-cropping.
It sounds like we need- really, really need- fusion, room temperature superconductors, and a cheap alternative to copper- and quick. Then we need to parlay that into something that sucks carbon out of the atmosphere and puts it right back into the ground. Or else it's going to be a very, very painful century.
Why not add some herds of unicorns too. Both are as likely to happen given the capture by the Rich of governments. As the Gulf States show, the Rich and their families will have air conditioning while the other 99% will fight to work in the heat so they don't starve.
I agree. The only way through this that people are going to like is through technology. Conservation needs to play a role but all it is doing is delaying things by a very small amount.
@@pringlw Patently wrong. Plating sea grass, for instance has shown drastic changes in affected areas. Conservation isn't ineffective because it doesn't work, it's ineffective because no one wants to put their politics aside and fund it. When things get bad enough that may change.
Indeed. That's why the frequency and intensity of hurricanes have been decreasing since the 1890s. See University of Colorado meta-study by Pielke et al that says exactly this. Tropical storms are driven NOT by high temperatures but by high temperature differentials between the equator and the poles, and thus Climate Change is in fact decreasing tropical storm activity. On the other hand, it will dramatically increase precipitation and we will see a lot more rain and flooding combined with a lot less wind and "storminess".
Governments have been for decades and still are using aluminum oxide, barium salts to create those chemtrails to reflect the sun's heat. Think back decades ago. Those jet trails didn't last all day and night like they do today. Then spread across the sky creatingva temporary reflective shield. I have noticed on long, all day car trips or working outside all day and noticing this phenom. And if the theory is false, then why does our governments spend so much time and money to deny it? They believe the poisoning of our ecosystem is outweighed by the benefits in the long term, until hopefully, a new safe energy technology is created to end the use of fossil fuels.
After the U.S. and Norway jointly worked on blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline, people here in Northern Europe, specifically Germany and Austria are going out and illegally cutting down government controlled forest to off-set the cost of natural gas to heat their homes. So this process is already in full swing.
When you begin to see it with your own eyes, you've got to really wonder about these climate change deniers. I talk to old timers that have lived where I live their entire lives. They say Winters are milder. Maybe you even like it, but to pretend it isn't there is just weird.
Yeah, I'm 30 and live in Wisconsin and we definitely have way more mild winters with way less snow than we did when I was a kid. We went from 100" of snow a winter to mowing your lawn on Christmas and wearing shorts.
I'm not sure Peter is right saying the midwest will get more moisture as the poles heat up. The temperature diforential between the gulf of Mexico and the north pole is what drives the moisture from the gulf to the Midwest. Without a sufficient temperature difference that moisture will just stay in the gulf and reak havoc as anual rainfall doubles and intencity of storms triple. Right now rainfall in the Midwest has been low the last three years. This is jus my thoughts, but I am concerned.
The movement of the air masses (and their moisture) to the poles is the reason why the poles are warming though. Because more tropical(Moist) air is being thrown towards them. It is also the case that the upper midwest of the US has gotten wetter over the past several decades.
@ssssaa2 looking at a chart of change in precipitation over Canada near the central border with the US is showing a 10-20% increase while northern Canada looks to have a much higher increase in precipitation. Looking at other areas that had significant warming example: the middle east, the climate got dryer in the interior of large land masses. I am a bit worried either way. To much rain and heat lowers soil neutrients. Heat without adequate preparation lowers vegetation levels, which causes further heating and drying.
It's about filling evil men's wallets teaching commoners a nuReligion. Think about all middle east oil and American ammo involved in turning rocks mined by near slaves in Africa into Chinese solar panels mounted on some European or American neo-lib's house.
It isn’t even about that. It is about controlling the people on the planet. Global warming has been blown all out of proportion to reality and those behind the narrative have done this intentionally. Thankfully, the narrative is slowly unraveling and I hope within another 10 years we will get back to real science.
I've stopped needeing more reasons to prepare a few years ago. If anything is painfully obvious, it's that at least the climate and demographic issues will hit us like a brick, since nobody is even seriously talking about it, let alone try and deal with it. Call me pesimistic all you want, but my intuition sees a "perfect storm" forming over us. The two things mentioned above are just a part of it and it's about to break this century 100%. The question is not if, but when.
Some years ago people jokingly asked if we were living in Idiocracy, the movie. In some decades, people will be jokingly asking if we are living in 2012, the movie:p
@BERZERKERSV4 the current approach to the demographic issue is literally "fingers crossed and hope for the best". No alu foil, but I have something better: history books. This is far from being our first rodeo. It happens roughly once in 250 years. Also, what the internet has shown us is that access to information was never the real issue.
New Orleans resident here. He’s right about the people transforming the city into an aquarium. It is the rare building (usually a slum lord’s apartments) that still doesn’t have air conditioning. Growing up in the 70’s, the typical summer weather growing up was June: highs in the low 90’s (33C) and lows in the mid 70’s (24C). In August back then it was highs in the mid 90s (35C) with lows near 80 (27C). These days, the June weather is similar to last century’s August weather, and August now sees hi 90s (37C) and lows in the low 80s (28C). The one constant through all this is lots of subtropical humidity, with dew points close to the low temperatures. June, July, August, and early September are when the locals stay inside their air conditioned everything.
It's worth noting that the 1970s was an uncharacteristically cool period for Louisiana and much of the gulf and deep south region of the US. The temperatures in the early 20th century were higher.
I sit here in Boston at 6am on November 1st drinking my coffee outside in shorts and a t shirt because it is 65 degrees - shaking my head that there are still people that think none of this is real.
Enjoy it while it lasts! Boston has been in the 80’s in November in the early 20th century. Eventually it’s gonna get miserable cold which is good for what purpose??
@pringlw Everyday the weather changes. If you go back into the known climate record which at the most is only a couple hundred years old and not very good due to instruments of various types, there is a small increase in temps. The disputes are on what causes the warming as there are millions of factors.
@pringlw this year is the year of maximum solar activity, which is why it is so warm. Enjoy the beautiful weather because now it will get cooler every year
@@justmenotyou3151 OK, correct. But what it entails is basically no decarbonization and massive amounts of new coal-burning plants. What likelihood does the IPCC attribute to 6C? 2%?
Extreme predictions is his whole shtick. China will “collapse,” he says. Inflation will be super high for a decade, he says. Of course he says six degrees.
The earth is warming, the winds do shift, The skies above give no soft lift. Yet, in the soil, beneath our feet, A quiet peace, a pulse so sweet. Return to nature, where life once grew, And in her arms, find skies more true. The heat may rise, the storms may roar, But in the ground, we root once more.
I moved to the Phoenix, AZ area in 1977. Back then, we were guaranteed to get 7-10 nights of freezing weather every winter. Now it's more like a hard freeze every 7-10 years. There are trees (ficus nitidia) here that are 30-40 feet tall that if you go back to a gardening book written in the 70s, it says these trees won't survive a winter in this zone. The summers are a bit warmer as well, but the main feature is the number of days when the temperature is, say, above 110 degrees Fahrenheit. Climate change is here. You need to have your head in the sand to think otherwise.
This past summer Kingman, normally about 10*F less hot than Phoenix, had Phoenix level temps, and in Phoenix, Bullhead City, Havasu, and Yuma it was.... nothing I ever want to visit. I did ok with a small mobile swamp cooler and a ceiling fan until this summer, when I had to actually get a small AC unit (I'm in a small tiny house, half my roof is shaded by a large pine thank goodness.)
Chuffed that you've gotten to this topic Peter, bravo, bravo. You are a respected and prolific content producer and information disseminator. You are the right person, at the right time talking the right topic. Hopefully you'll be doing many more on this gargantuan topic, as the problem of climate change will be accelerating for the fore-coming 200 years (give or take), at least. For example: - spreading wet-bulb temperature (great coverage in this video Peter) - abrupt halting of the Gulf Stream's big brother, the AMOC, sending Northern Europe (and possibly the NE coast of Nth America) into a mini-ice-age whilst the rest of the planet swelters - global concurrent wildfires - methane release from thawing permafrost and (especially in the Arctic Seas) shallow sub-marine clathrates (methane hydrates) [ps. 4 Gg carbon in the atmosphere, 250 Gg carbon in the permafrost alone] - global sea-level rise and accompanying displacement - equatorial desertification - agricultural decimation (excellent coverage here) - displacement and migration of hundreds of millions to billions of climate refugees, forcing conflict. You're the best presenter I've seen at joining the dots of cause and effect. Good luck on this one Peter. Michael Barrett, Sydney ps. An excellent resource for peer-review journal articles focusing on the cutting edge of this is "Paul Beckwith" -- YT channel.
Nuclear, wind, solar, batteries, insulation in homes, and research into other, non-carbon ways to produce and save money. Next, we are going to have to address overpopulation. The population will drop below a billion within the next century through wars for food and water and migration, starvation, etc.
Peter, meterologist here... I dont know where you got your intel on climate information, but if it is similar for other geopolitical intel... then you have just become HIGHLY unreliable. Your geopolitical and infrastructure commentary are correct based on this doomsday scenario. But, and this is a HUGE BUT... you are following climate model information from RCP 8.5 (actually sounds worse) which is a GARBAGE scenario. Observational trends are below the 10th percentile scenario runs and the scenario you espouse here is 99th. It is dooms mongering like this that emboldens the "other side" because these scenarios do NOT come true... Yet climate warms and effects slowly build and it has become 100% political and science dies. I have seen it in my career, I have seen it with good and bad scientists just trying to keep jobs. Start RATIONAL discourse now. Leverage off human engineering ingenuity! Nuclear is a great start... but NIMBY fear rules the political space and stops us feom getting what we both want. High energy and reduced CO2
Absolutely insane to see Peter quoting RCP 8.5, with his justification being that deglobalization will cause most economies to use fossil fuels. Doesn't he understand that RCP 8.5 not only relies on all countries using fossil fuels, but also massive economic and population growth? How is that happening in his deglobalization scenario?
Could you elaborate what the problem with the model is? All criticism I found in the last 20 minutes was either void of any specifics or so technical I spent more time looking up terms than reading.
Science is already dead, discredited, and unreliable. It has become a kind of shamanism, and in some cases, such as "climate change", it has become outright charlatanism.
Get your solar power while you can folks. I live at 60° north and I just had 11 kW of solar panels install installed. Today it’s cool and windy but sunny so my panels are generating near 2 kW of power. The solar panels charge a battery stack, which is also recharged in the middle of the night when the spot price is at the lowest. Since we do experience about four months of dunkelflaute up here I have a wood-burning stove and a pinch. In the summer when I am generating crazy amounts of electricity and selling it back to the grid, I use that as a credit for the winter time when the prices are higher in, my production is lower. It’s not perfect, but it’s pretty darn good.
We are getting them too, but I can't help but wonder how much of the earth will be dug up to create my panels and other components. And, how much this new energy source impacts biodiversity loss. Is there any way we can tread lightly on this earth with such a high species level metabolism?
Peter Zeihan: "since I hate humidity, if you get temperatures over 90ºF for too long with high humidity you will die". Here in Brazil, summer has temperatures over 100ºF through out the summer with over 90% humidity since the beginning of time and we are still here
@MicaelSG23 100 degrees with a RH of 90%!!!!! That is a dew point of 96.4F! Congrats on breaking the world record by a solid degree and a half. I think the RH% was 90% in the morning when temps were in the 80s. Not pleasant... but I declare BS.
At a certain point sweating doesn't help to cool the body down. You can easily test this for yourself. Visit a sauna. There you have high temperatures and low humidity. You can last quite a while. Now try the same thing in a steam bath. Use the same temperatures and you will be cooked.
Surprised you didn't mention the soon to be shipping routes around the North Pole, providing alternative to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca, radically changing geopolitics.
No infrastructure i.e. harbours along that route, so you'd be on your own if your ship develops a problem. Also there are serious worries about the AMOC collapsing and that would make things a lot colder again over there, due to stopping the heat redistribution from equator to northpole area.
I know you probably won’t read this, but I have a great book recommendation for you. It’s called losing our cool by Stan Cox. Great info on the history of AC and the issues with it.
I think you're quite wrong in this topic. I'll be very surprised if before 2060 the current climate apocallypsis in which we are involved doesn't wipe out at least 1/3 of the popultation. I mean, fertility rate is already well below 2.1 for 75% of the counties, most of low height regions as much of indo-pacific islands and places like Florida will just be flooded constanly, the AMOC is already collapsing and probably will break the rain cycles crippling our capacity to grow crops while turning Europe in a place constantly leveled by storms, etc, etc. Fortunately, survivors will have plenty of rich people to eat...
The science says Billions will die and great wars will break out over diminishing resources.......next year half of my province of Alberta is expected to Burn ?????...the premier has Banned Renewable Energy Plants as a visual Eyesore......in the land of a million Oil Derricks !!!
Watching formula1-drivers drive the singapore race (or the Qatar race) is almost uncomfortable. Drivers throwing up while driving, asking for the pits crews to just dump buckets of water over them during pitstops. After the races drivers are stumbling away from the cars, some going directly to paramedics. High dew-point is not fun for the human body
I'm sorry but you can't discern climate change in 6 years. This is a phenomena measuring hundreds of years. And this is the problem with people, they latch on to any thing that reinforces their belief
Man, I love those aspens. Such awesome country. At 76, I have never witnessed hurricanes forming one after the other in the Southwest corner of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. We are now seeing the formation of the 4th or 5th system from there this year. Never have I witnessed such a thing. As a kid, we played outside during the summer. We had no air conditioning, yet I do not remember one summer being as hot and dry as the last 5 or 6 years. We used to play in cooling summer thunderstorms and frequent showers, that no longer come. I have witnessed bayous dry up this year that never even came close before. I saw hundreds of majestic oaks die from drought this and last summer. How can anyone be a denier? I used to be, but no longer.
Great coverage of a big topic. It's early days but we're all seeing changes that we don't want to see. We're reaching the time where someone is going to say it: "Coastal areas within 5-10 miles of the water are unsafe to build on". Risks in other areas, like mountains or mountain valleys, are right behind coastal zones in terms of risk. Obviously, there are more areas. We probably have time but we need to start getting honest with our future living space and those in other parts of the world.
Here's your clue: Manmade climatechangeis 100g HOAX. Doesn't exist. Flat out LIE. Been watching these climate lies for half a century. Literally NONE have come true. None. In the 1970s they told us the Earth was headed into a 10,000 year Ice Age. In the 1980s they screevhed about globalwarming. We all remarked: "Shortest Ice Age EVER!" They screeched that the ice caps were going to melt and flood the globe... by 1992... 1998... 2000... 2004... 2008... 2011... 2019... 2022... *yawn* still waiting... FACT: The sun controls 98% 0f global climate. Volcanoes control 2%. All of mankind throughout all of history COMBINED accounts for 0.0000006% of global climate. Mankind is completely and utterly insignificant to global climate.
If the Earth gets to +6 degrees Centigrade (+10.8 Fahrenheit) we will not need to worry about infrastructure or agriculture. Most of the Earth's animal population (not just human) will have died off. Arthropods will rule the world! Yes, the Earth has been about this hot in the last 65 million years (e.g. PETM)... but it never reached this temperature in such a short time span. The issue is not absolute temperature, the issue is the rate of change. GLTA
I’m not worried, it’s frustrating atm because it seems like every one doesn’t care but it’s more that the technology isn’t there. Soon it will be, in what ever form it takes. There’s nothing much countries can really do right as nothing is viable large scale.
@ the only way this happens is we invent more distracting tech. Biology wants us to to join a group and fight the other group as keeps happening over and over.
The IPCC revised their estimate to 2.5 degrees C as the worst case. 6 degrees is pretty much scaremongering and not supported by the current climate science.
I'm in Bangladesh where my extended family is trying to convince me to stay. in case I do the first order of business is my vasectomy. no way in hell am I giving my kids a death sentence before they're even born
Sad you bought into the biggest grift in history. The de-growth movement is behind the climate change lie. Please read about the 2 times the IPCC had their email servers hacked. Both times showed coordinated worldwide data manipulation and that if they didn’t come out with the pre-determined government narrative, they would lose their funding. And, it was first called global cooling, then global warming and now climate change. Please, use your brain and not their lies.
Cogent and astute analysis of the number one global political and biological challenge that is either completely misunderstood or ignored by all political candidates. More climate change analysis and prognostication going forward please.
Australian farmer here. Wrong on the food growing areas of Australia. Food is produced on almost the entire length of the East coast. We've had less severe weather events and milder temperatures. Data modelling is great for selling things.
Sydney resident here...I couldn't breath the air in 2019 due to the bushfires that killed over a billion animals. Ski seasons are getting shorter due to Australia experiencing the hottest winter on record in 2023...."less severe weather"? You aren't looking very hard mate
Even at current CO2 emissions, we'll have 4-5 C by 2100, and emissions are still rising. If there is a widespread shift to coal as Peter suggests, 6 C is fully possible. Like it or not, but you can't argue with data.
I moved to southern ontario in 1970, and almost every fall we had a so called Indian summer , "Indian Summer, popular expression for a period of mild, summerlike weather which occurs in the autumn, usually after the first frost. The origins of the name are obscure, but it was in use early in the 19th century in Canada and even earlier in the US" What I was able to find that this phrase was mentioned going back to 1778.
I've been hearing a lot of climate prophecies since I was in high school in the '80s. Our data sets are screwed because the NOAA sites their weather stations next to buildings and airports next to jet engines. Then, they 'massage the data' to get 'real data'.... We were going to hit 'peak oil' in the early '90s. CO2 is 0.4% of our atmo and at 0.2% plants die. While rich folks own oceanfront properties, like Barak Obama's Martha's Vineyard compound, and insurance companies continue to cover them, the canary in the coal mine is still squawking. Yes, climate changes. Humans have some part in it but until the IPCC executive summary actually matches the content of their reports, it's political garbage that feeds an ideology. If you 'believe in science', actually believe it and strap on ideology filter.
That's simply not true. Infrastructure is sometimes built around weather stations but the heat island effect is well known to meteoroligists. Temperatures at rural weather stations show the same trends. Predictions of peak oil have nothing to do with climatology. New drilling techniques, oil sand extraction and fracking have opened up more fossil fuel reserves.
Big Tobacco "smoking is safe and healthy"; Big Oil "burning fossil fuels for 2 centuries doesn't affect our climate".... You have the credibility of a con man selling snake oil.
@@thomasnewcomb2079 The fossil fuel company's scientists knew what would happen, that's why their projections were hidden. Supran - Assessing ExxonMobil's Global Warming Projections - Science.
@@JJRM8 I'm sorry you couldn't extrapolate the thought of the peak oil prophesy to the other prophecies all being bogus. By far, the weather stations relied upon were placed long after the site was built. There are actual photos out in the world you can look at if you're interested.
@@Buran01 No, I'm just a scientist that looks at data and not paid by 'big oil' or any other carbon based industry. You do realize that your smoking is safe trope has nothing to do with with climate science, right? And that handle... "Buran".... big fan of Soviet stuff? Do you help shell out the money to the green movement??
Good analysis. I'm less worried about the shortage of food than I am about the forced migration from unlivable climates. In marginal economic areas that's a recipe for political upheaval and war. Central America/Mexico, Pakistan/India, Iran/Saudi, and the east Asian island nations like Indonesia with heavy overpopulation, mean displacement of over 1 billion people in the next twenty to thirty years. Along with the decoupling of labor and productivity (AI manufacturing), it's hard to see how these people will be able to survive let alone thrive. Some days I feel like I'm watching the tide come in on a sandcastle and I'm watching to see if the next wave will make it crumble, certain of the inevitability but hopeful none the less. The boost in wealth by AI will make these problems surmountable but not without an enlightened level of societal reorganization and wealth redistribution. I'm pretty sure once the first wave takes down the sandcastle outer wall and fills the moat, the kids will pile on top of the castle and pound it into a lumpy mound.
@user-ej1yi4lv9v Peter makes the same mistake of linear thinking in his forecasting. Yes the energy draw is huge, not just for AI but for reshoring manufacturing and all the AI bots we will buy to wash the dishes. Balancing that will be exponential growth in energy generation - solar, oil, small nuclear - plenty of potential to grow. More importantly is the progressive halving of the energy needed as we get more mature - my phone runs on a low voltage charger but is faster and smarter than a warehouse full of 1970's super computers that required their own power plant.
Look to 1. 4 degrees 2. Collapse of West Antartica in 2028 3. Flooding of entire Eastern Seaboard by 2029. Peter: this is a good analysis and I shared it on FB. We need to be realistic and we should be panicking.
Here's your clue: Manmade climatechangeis 100g HOAX. Doesn't exist. Flat out LIE. Been watching these climate lies for half a century. Literally NONE have come true. None. In the 1970s they told us the Earth was headed into a 10,000 year Ice Age. In the 1980s they screevhed about globalwarming. We all remarked: "Shortest Ice Age EVER!" They screeched that the ice caps were going to melt and flood the globe... by 1992... 1998... 2000... 2004... 2008... 2011... 2019... 2022... *yawn* still waiting... FACT: The sun controls 98% 0f global climate. Volcanoes control 2%. All of mankind throughout all of history COMBINED accounts for 0.0000006% of global climate. Mankind is completely and utterly insignificant to global climate.
Lots of scientists are becoming quite alarmed because the actual warming we are measuring is more extensive than even the worst-case models. In that case, we are looking at more than 6 degrees C. One of the most significant p[problems will be extended periods where the temp/humidity never gets low enough for recovery. Peter talks about this as being unfortunate, but we could be looking at mass deaths of millions over a few days as large parts of the population cannot be evacuated or cooled sufficiently.
Some information makes an old man think that it would be nice to be younger, to have the expectation that one might live to see the future and to benefit from improvements. Other stories bring up a certain gratitude that one is unlikely to live long enough to suffer through the impending disintegration and collapse. While Mr. Zeihan’s effectiveness as a thoughtful information synthesizer and story teller is noteworthy, this particular story is a paving stone on the path of inter-generational schadenfreude.
Minnesotan here. Our climate seems to be moderating. Summers haven’t been as sweltering either. Winters have definitely been warmer. And we have lots of water.
Minnesota is not the world. In the Mediterranean, the changes aren't so rosy. Just take a glance from the news, more extreme weather events like flash flooding in Spain and droughts in Sicily take a heavy toll on the region. But it's sure nice you have a good time in your backyard.
I listen to this guy a lot, just to hear his perspective. Little things strike me odd though...besides what I would argue are simplistic arguments (in other words, taking a broad view but ignoring the many possibilities that might crop up unforeseen, at least factoring in the likelihood of such events) but then saying “nucular” and “centigrade” for example really puts a pin to the “I see things clearer” balloon.
Excellent video but Success depends on the actions or steps you take to achieve it. Building wealth involves developing good habits regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Financial management is a crucial topic that most tend to shy away from, and ends up haunting them in the near future.., I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life!!
I remember as a child growing up in Montana, the extremely cold weather and incredible amounts of snow we used to get in the winter. We still get that same weather, I just remember that.
Northern Ontario here, it is definitely getting warmer. I had about 15 50ft tall american elms around the house and they had been there for 60-70 years, started 8 years ago, they all died because the winter didn't get cold enough to kill the beetles that prey on them. After some research, found out the same was happening in MN
Re your second point: no, they don't, for the simple reason that it's impossible to predict those things and so if you try to then all you can say is that clever humans will solve it all therefore there's nothing to worry about. Taking *that* line puts you on the side of those who deny that climate change matters. Which you might say is the ultimate gamble.
1:04 If anyone expects we're gonna go to +6°C by 2100, they must think humanity is doomed. At that high an increase, wine is made in Scandinavia. India and China and most of the US become unlivable. You'd be able to start farming on Antarctica... We'd see _massive_ migrations and civil wars and droughts/famines. As in, the best-case scenario is that 10% of the world population survives... For all intents and purposes, it would not just be the end of every country we know today, but probably civilization itself. You can forget about multinationals, international trade, stock markets, consumerism, or anything resembling the current grind of education in youth and work in adulthood. All of it will simply collapse and cease to exist... And tipping points move from a scary nightmare to almost certainty. A 90% drop in global spieces (from all the add-on effects) would be well within the cards. There is no government or military or solo survivalist guru who can cope with that much change in such a short time period... Seriously, if Peter truly thought 6°C was more-plausible, the best thing he can hope for is that he dies before 2050. And if he has kids, oof....
Once the crops fail, we all die. How much heat can be added to the atmosphere before that happens? 3 degrees? 4 degrees? And obviously once it hits 4 degrees, it won't stop or reverse. I'd be surprised if we have 20 good years left...but on the plus side- at least you don't worry too much about your 30 year mortgage.
Doomsday climate models depend on slight warming from carbon to increase the water capacity of the air, with water vapor being the primary driver of the greenhouse effect. The assumption they make is that this capacity for water vapor is always maxed out, but real world data doesn't back that assumption up.
Peter Zehian average video: so there is this problem, but because of geography and demographic America will do good and everyone else is screwed
And he is on point if there is no civil war in usa ..
There's been good rain in the Sahara. Australians' 50-year rain average is up. There is too much in Spain, tho.
@@turtle-frogs water is a bless...
@turtle-frogs Nope. The North of Australia is wetter the South of Australia is drier, much drier. Drought Statement Bureau of Meteorology.
@user-McGiver Floods are increasing, and intense rainfall events are increasing due to Climate Change.
US military budget: $850 billion
US green energy budget: $20 billion
The nuclear power plant 20 miles from my house has been producing carbon free energy 24/7 for 50 years. Build 7 new ones, please.
When they closed one in NY a few years ago I was cringing so hard. We are moving backwards instead of forwards. Can't believe we're going to cede that ground to the Russians, French (to a lesser degree) and Chinese (who are ramping up like crazy).
Once again government was the greatest barrier to progress
Umm think more like $600 million, as a WHOLE, looking at DOE annual R&D budget. And nuclear isn't the only option when sun is shining at us. Just that we need to move past PV for goodness and think more pragmatically.
I know a factor is the processing of the spent material by the private sector as Peter said and it makes sense but I’m sure if the government was more concerned with prosperity instead of ruling we would have solutions
I spell corrected
What worries me most about this is all the climate refugees this is going to create. Not because I have a problem with refugees, but because there are going to be way too many to handle, and how that is going to influence politics. *People are gonna get scared, and scared people vote for dangerous politicians.*
They already have.
Refugees of what? ruclips.net/video/jP8nz0cVbzQ/видео.html
Refugees of what 2? ruclips.net/video/m22O-Y2agO0/видео.html
Why are there going to be "climate refugees"? I agree frightened people make bad decisions when voting. So let's have the government stop scaring people about climate.
@@raymontgomery764 If a few hundred thousand in say Bangladesh get permanently flooded out of their homes they will be considered climate refugees as opposed to other categories of refugees
As a biologist, the factor I don't see being covered is what's standing behind Peter: an intact functioning ecosystem providing innumerable ecosystem services like water infiltration and free carbon sequestration. At 3-4 degrees C warmer, how many of earth's ecosystems stop functioning at 100% efficiency compared to their historical value? And at what percent? We're talking everything from the deep ocean sediments to the tundra and taiga, rainforests, etc. Each one is currently pulling in gigatons of carbon every year. And we really do not know at what point each one will either collapse or be reduced in efficiency. If we lose even 5-10% of that capacity, the climate change problem is going to snowball very rapidly and unpredictably. At that point, the earth itself is going to be outgassing more and more, regardless of what humans do.
this year was the first that forrests did not store more co2 than they release. so the breaking points you assume are in the future have already been past
The biggest danger of global warming may not be what we know can go wrong, it's what we DON'T KNOW can go wrong. Because if we know what can go wrong, we can adapt. If something stops functioning overnight for example and we haven't had the chance to adapt, we will have a problem.
Most carbon dioxide is taken in by the oceans. The oceans are the major driver of CO2 uptake. What makes you think this system will become less "efficient". Why do you assume this system will break down and how would that even look like?
The last 100 years has been filled with alarmist drivel like this. There is a reason we went from fearing the next ice age to global warming to climate change to climate justice. It is a profitable industry.
People like you are the reason we are doing ridiculous things like storing carbon underground in a vast infrastructure of waste.
Only 33% of human carbon output goes to the oceans, and they lose the ability to keep doing that around year 2100 on current trends
oh this comment section is going to get UGLY
Already has *sigh*
Well, the largest "news" company is owed by a man whose billions are in oil. The oil industry has been in a full court press regarding propaganda around climate change. Thus, Faux "news" viewers have been fed anti-climate change propaganda for over a decade, such that they don't believe it exists. However, what they really are is victims of a billionaire protecting his profit stream......and he has been profoundly successful.....
As it should.
Yes, because ultimately everyone believes what they want to believe
@@britcom1 Exactly. The guy throws around ideas as if they are absolute facts and questioning them is outrageous.
My father was a meteorologist for the national weather service. I remember him talking about this in the 1970s when I was a little kid sitting around the kitchen table talking to my mom and aunt and uncle who were visiting. They didn’t call it global warming or anything, just that the temperature was slowly rising and that was going to change the amplitude of the jet streams causing greater shifts in weather patterns.
From the 70s to now we have lost 75% of the insects and most of the coral reefs. There was a thing called Aral Sea in the 70s, it changed. Is called "progress", they told us.
@@Buran01 Yes, I have seen fewer insects in my house over time.
We have not lost 75% of the coral reefs. That is simply false. In fact coral reefs are on the rebound at the moment and are flourishing in many places.
@@markrutledge5855and in many other regions they are not. Because the climate IS changing
There were articles from 1920's newspapers warning about the effect of industrial carbon dioxide in the global temperature
Here's what's missing:
Photosynthesis operates in a temperature range for the 4 major crops: Wheat, Soy, Rice and Corn...Corn has the highest threshold for heat, the others not so much...if it gets too hot, it doesn't matter how much Water or CO2 the plant has available, it will not process those inputs. Therefore, heat will cap yields or start reducing yields over time.
THank you for addressing the topic tho!
Have a look at the tropics. Plenty of foods. Plenty of water.
I have noticed this. I live on a property in the Hunter Valley, south eastern Australia, and once the temperature gets up around 38 or 40c, (?100F) things just stop growing. And some plants just die. They cook. Doesn’t matter how much water you give them. Mulching helps but obviously there are very finite limits.
It's more that the metabolism in the plants increase with temperature than that something happens with the Photosyntesis. It should be because Corn is an C4 plant it can work faster.
EXCELLENT 👌 video today,,, please do more on this subject,, focus on the places in the US that will do well..
Thanks!
An interesting thing about Australia, the South Eastern corner is indeed getting dryer, however the northern and central desert areas seem to gradually getting wetter, the last time the earth went through a warmer period with the continents in basically the same position they're currently in Australia had rainforest ove much of the northern areas of the continent and most of the central and southern areas were dry woodlands to desert, overall the continent received much more rainfall and was much greener.
@@peterwarner553 With a bit of luck we can double crop potatoes in a couple of years in the Netherlands
The Australian CSIRO or equivalent to NOA in the US showed us 10 years ago that the world is getting Greener the Sahara is Greening at a fantastic rate, due to increased CO2 but the Ideologues don't want you to hear the truth. They need to frighten everybody to keep this lie going. I have just returned from a location on the Sahara Desert where you can see Whale Skeletons', i wonder if the Whales walked to the location over the desert or did the climate change. Since all the Pyramids are built of Limestone which is formed under the Ocean the area called Giza was once under water why to these people lie to us about climate change and tell us it is caused by Man Made CO2 which clearly it is not.
Growing zones have already started being adjusted. It's very obvious here in Houston that we're shifting from subtropical to tropical.
Actually, the Mediterranean is warming fast and this is impacting weather patterns in Southern Europe dramatically. Precipitation increases 12 percent, but alas, so do monster floodings. Seems Spain needs more trees in the uplands. Much more.
Oh, is only getting warm here; as I oftenly joke "this will be the coldest year of the rest of our lives". Some of the tipping points in the climate mechanisms, as the AMOC slown/collapse, Greenland glaciers melting down, permafrost melting and tundra releasing methane are just only starting to converge, so we can expect a speed up in the extreme of the conditions, the amount of catastrophic events and the severity of the episodes.
@@Buran01European weather might look like Canadian weather in a hundred years. FAR colder due to the collapse of the AMOC
@@SigFigNewton
but then also sunnier
Morocco has been experiencing floods, too. Of course, they can be refilling their aquifers from this rain, too.
And you can die just by going for a walk....300 years of increasing heat until we control CO2 emissions!.....but nobody is doing anything today !
Another cheery Zeihan update! I need a stiff drink or 10 😂
Thank goodness you can always run away from reality.
Great video, dealing with the changes in regional climate will be a big issue this century.
Thank you for recommending Sarah Jennine Davis on one of your videos. I reached out to her and :nvesting with her has been amazing.
Wow, congratulations on your impressive :nvestment success! Your discipline and focus on delayed gratification is truly inspiring. I'm curious, what are some of the key factors that you consider when making :nvestment decisions? Do you have any tips for those of us who are just starting to dip our toes into the world of :nvesting? Thanks for sharing your story!
Would you mind providing information about the adviser who assisted you? I'm 39 years old and looking to expand my portfolio and plan for retirement.
Sarah Jennine Davis is highly recommended
You most likely should get her basic info when you search her on your browser.
How do I access her ? I really need this
+156
When I tell people I live in Minnesota, they typically think of the movie, "Fargo," and look at me with pity. However, the state motto is, "The land of 10,000 lakes," so drought is not usually a problem. The weather here over the last decade has seemed to improve, from a human viewpoint. It used to be that we had to endure bitter cold and gray for months, while our summers were plagued with brutal humidity. However, the last half-a-decade, we have had sunny winters with lots of snow and the summer humidity has dramatically lessened. In other words, from a single anecdotal perspective, we are winning the climate change lottery.
But hasn't the mosquito population in summer increased, and for longer periods of time? They're not as big as Alaska's mosquitos (aka the 'Alaskan state bird'), but I'll bet they are just as ravenous for a blood meal.
In 70-100 years that’ll be one of the best places to live on earth
You won’t be winning long when everyone realizes this and moves there.
@@jbrandonf😐when the people who deny that there will be enormous numbers of climate refugees are the same hate immigrants
Also Minnesotan here. Last Winter was actually insane for the state (in an arguably good way). We had very little snow, the temperatures only went really low for brief bits of January ish. Otherwise it was light coat or even just sweater territory for most of the "winter", which involved mostly looking at brown-yellow grass/fields on the morning commute. People with icehouses for fishing and snowmobiles were not happy though.
From a Swedish perspective, I can tell you that we have definitely noticed climate change. This is definitely climate, not weather.
In Sweden by law, everyone is allowed to have three consecutive weeks of vacation between the months of June and August. Everyone’s fear was that the week they chose for their vacation would get rained out. It was a really genuine fear because it happened a lot.
Since 2018 every summer has been very dry. Some summers have been drought like while others have been just enough rain for the farmers. Barely. We now get our rain in the autumn.
Silver lining is that no one worries about getting their summer vacations rained out. On the other hand, the farmers are finding it very hard to get the amount of water they need for their crops. Because this country always had reliable rain, we don’t have much of an irrigation infrastructure. If mother nature sees fit to fill the lakes and the water tables in the autumn, then irrigation, it must be.
Willie you should stop and reread what you just wrote. By definition the minimum period of time to evaluate climate is 30 yrs. To claim you have "noticed" a change in climate is idiotic. I'll bet you can't remember what the weather was like on a specific day from 2 months ago.
@@TimothyGasserBS, I have many family members who say similar stories. We have not had real winter weather in 🇵🇱 for years, and when I ask how they spent their Christmas 30-40 years ago the response is always several degrees colder temperatures and several centimeters more snow.
Nature is not motherly, nature is not a deity. Nature operates on a scale larger than our finite scope of understanding.
I was just in Sweden for a week in September. It was warm and sunny every day. Everyone I talked to said I was very lucky and that is NOT normal Swedish September weather.
Swedish perspective isnt any better than anybody else's.
Glaring omissions - sea level rise and the associated mitigation costs and migration, ocean acidification and the associated collapse in most fisheries. But I appreciate him being real about it and not avoiding climate change as a topic.
Except sea levels have not risen in recorded history. Quite the opposite, they've been dropping for the last 100,000 years
@@rangerdoc1029you must work in the oil & gas industry eh?
@@rangerdoc1029 you are mistaken, many ruins of cities and human habitation are found underwater.
@@rangerdoc1029 Tempuraters have started rising out of the norm for the past 100 years.
You can’t do a comprehensive dissertation on all aspects of a topic in a nine minute RUclips video.
Great guest-thank you.
Also love how granular Peter's assessments are. He's a wealth of knowledge for anything geopolitical, and I find his perspectives useful both in day-to-day conversation, or when making my own videos on similar topics.
Wait what? 6 degrees centigrade is beyond any projection i have seen and would probably make life inhospitable for humans anywhere outside the poles.
There are models that predict this. It is just very unlikely.
@@march8482 That makes sense considering how varied the models are. How much conscious do you think there is towards the 3 degrees Celsius projection, which is what I see most in the media.
@@JamesR1986 "How much conscious do you think there is towards the 3 degrees Celsius projection" What do you mean? People in general don't have to concern themselves with these numbers. That's for policymakers. People just need to accept that society needs to change.
@@march8482 "change" is doing a lot of lifting here. Driving an electric cars is a change. So is accepting a totalitarian regime that dramatically rations the amount of fossil fuel energy we can use. The amount of change we will need to accept is dependent on the scale of problem.
And as we live in a democratic system we will have a say as to how much change we want.
@@JamesR1986 "The amount of change we will need to accept is dependent on the scale of problem." Exactly, but like I said, that's for policymakers to determine. It's a matter of risk management and weighing social and economic impacts against each other.
You’re extremely optimistic here.
I think for some people it’s going to take more time to sink in. Time we obviously do not have.
@@GaryStark For some people they'll be eating crow in 5-10 years when the data suddenly changes... or when they admit they didn't really know what they were talking about.
Here's your clue:
Manmade climatechangeis 100g HOAX. Doesn't exist. Flat out LIE.
Been watching these climate lies for half a century. Literally NONE have come true. None.
In the 1970s they told us the Earth was headed into a 10,000 year Ice Age. In the 1980s they screevhed about globalwarming. We all remarked: "Shortest Ice Age EVER!"
They screeched that the ice caps were going to melt and flood the globe... by 1992... 1998... 2000... 2004... 2008... 2011... 2019... 2022... *yawn* still waiting...
FACT:
The sun controls 98% 0f global climate.
Volcanoes control 2%.
All of mankind throughout all of history COMBINED accounts for 0.0000006% of global climate. Mankind is completely and utterly insignificant to global climate.
Already Canada this year became the globe's 2nd largest Wheat producer behind only Russia. We're seeing enlargement of warm climate zones opening up more crop opportunities.
And other zones closing or costs of holding them stable going up.
Correct
Wrong. I switched from wheat to cotton. Warm climate grows more than cold climate. Simple
on the other hand, that's a sad predictor of the future
What are you talking about? The largest wheat producer easily is China globally, India second, typically also above Russia. Exports I guess? The US also I'm sure produces more than Canada despite Wheat being a crop only grown in marginal regions in the US.
Very good video Peter. Thank you
I have been waiting for this subject.
Given the (geologically) brief snapshot of this planet, we as a species has been able to observe (and even less, been able to record), all of the planet's ecosystems have persisted on a knife's edge. It seems apparent our efforts / negligence, has pushed it from this edge.
With myriad, intertwined, and highly dynamic systems being involved, what comes next will be difficult to accurately predict. Might as well forecast the location and severity of the 'big one' earthquake.
But i think what shall come, will benefit the planet as a whole; that being, a significant population correction of us, as a species. We are part of nature and thus, are not immune to its ill-effects.
thanks chat gpt
@speedrunner9907 taken as a compliment
1.5 is already gone.
There would likely be some serious depopulation going on simultaneously, so demand for energy will drop also.
Transport of fertilizers won't likely match the increased rainfall in the US Midwest, so don't count on double-cropping.
Thank you for the education, Mr. Zeihan!
this video requires short maps and charts! very good topic, even better narrative. thanks
It sounds like we need- really, really need- fusion, room temperature superconductors, and a cheap alternative to copper- and quick. Then we need to parlay that into something that sucks carbon out of the atmosphere and puts it right back into the ground.
Or else it's going to be a very, very painful century.
We call them trees.
We needed that like 40 years ago. Even in best case scenario it's going to cause millions of deaths and mass migration
Why not add some herds of unicorns too. Both are as likely to happen given the capture by the Rich of governments. As the Gulf States show, the Rich and their families will have air conditioning while the other 99% will fight to work in the heat so they don't starve.
I agree. The only way through this that people are going to like is through technology. Conservation needs to play a role but all it is doing is delaying things by a very small amount.
@@pringlw Patently wrong. Plating sea grass, for instance has shown drastic changes in affected areas. Conservation isn't ineffective because it doesn't work, it's ineffective because no one wants to put their politics aside and fund it. When things get bad enough that may change.
"The poles are warming faster than the equator and when you have big temperature differentials"
Wouldn't that reduce the temperature differential?
Yes it would and so everything that Mr Zeihan said which was consequent upon that was wrong.
You want a temperature difference ;) Just look at the 2021 Texas cold-snap ;)
Indeed. That's why the frequency and intensity of hurricanes have been decreasing since the 1890s. See University of Colorado meta-study by Pielke et al that says exactly this. Tropical storms are driven NOT by high temperatures but by high temperature differentials between the equator and the poles, and thus Climate Change is in fact decreasing tropical storm activity. On the other hand, it will dramatically increase precipitation and we will see a lot more rain and flooding combined with a lot less wind and "storminess".
A good point. Puerto Rico is no garbage; climate models are.
Good point
If it gets anywhere near that hot, we'll start adding 1.5% sulfurized hydrocarbons back to the jet fuel.
Why?
Easy peasy. And who is going to pay for that? How are you going to compensate people who get more clouds and rain because of your geo engineering?
@@ivancho5854 To reflect more sunlight back into space.
@@paulsondj Ah. Thanks. 👍
Governments have been for decades and still are using aluminum oxide, barium salts to create those chemtrails to reflect the sun's heat. Think back decades ago. Those jet trails didn't last all day and night like they do today. Then spread across the sky creatingva temporary reflective shield. I have noticed on long, all day car trips or working outside all day and noticing this phenom. And if the theory is false, then why does our governments spend so much time and money to deny it?
They believe the poisoning of our ecosystem is outweighed by the benefits in the long term, until hopefully, a new safe energy technology is created to end the use of fossil fuels.
After the U.S. and Norway jointly worked on blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline, people here in Northern Europe, specifically Germany and Austria are going out and illegally cutting down government controlled forest to off-set the cost of natural gas to heat their homes. So this process is already in full swing.
I love how RUclips insets the link to the approved view 😅. Maybe we all want to hear Peter’s opinion and that’s why we clicked on the video.
The vast majority of crops cannot achieve photosynthesis at 4° C.
Great point!
C3 crops are most affected - we may need to shift to C4 crops with a significant drop in nutrition.
It's 11/1/24 and two days ago it was 80F off Lake Michigan. I'm 50. This is not normal.
Had to turn my AC back on at the end of October. Not normal at all. Haven't even had a hard freeze yet.
When you begin to see it with your own eyes, you've got to really wonder about these climate change deniers. I talk to old timers that have lived where I live their entire lives. They say Winters are milder. Maybe you even like it, but to pretend it isn't there is just weird.
I wish the AC was never invented, so that all the climate change deniers could actually FEEL the effect of the world warming up!
Yeah, I'm 30 and live in Wisconsin and we definitely have way more mild winters with way less snow than we did when I was a kid. We went from 100" of snow a winter to mowing your lawn on Christmas and wearing shorts.
Did you happen to notice the previous record was set in 1896? Is that climate change?
I'm not sure Peter is right saying the midwest will get more moisture as the poles heat up.
The temperature diforential between the gulf of Mexico and the north pole is what drives the moisture from the gulf to the Midwest.
Without a sufficient temperature difference that moisture will just stay in the gulf and reak havoc as anual rainfall doubles and intencity of storms triple.
Right now rainfall in the Midwest has been low the last three years.
This is jus my thoughts, but I am concerned.
The movement of the air masses (and their moisture) to the poles is the reason why the poles are warming though. Because more tropical(Moist) air is being thrown towards them. It is also the case that the upper midwest of the US has gotten wetter over the past several decades.
@ssssaa2 looking at a chart of change in precipitation over Canada near the central border with the US is showing a 10-20% increase while northern Canada looks to have a much higher increase in precipitation.
Looking at other areas that had significant warming example: the middle east, the climate got dryer in the interior of large land masses.
I am a bit worried either way. To much rain and heat lowers soil neutrients. Heat without adequate preparation lowers vegetation levels, which causes further heating and drying.
Ahhhh…my daily dose of optimism. Thanks, Pete.
The earth has been warming for twelve thousand years . Im more worried about global cooling.
Climate change is not about saving the planet, it is about saving the people on the planet.
It's about filling evil men's wallets teaching commoners a nuReligion. Think about all middle east oil and American ammo involved in turning rocks mined by near slaves in Africa into Chinese solar panels mounted on some European or American neo-lib's house.
It isn’t even about that. It is about controlling the people on the planet. Global warming has been blown all out of proportion to reality and those behind the narrative have done this intentionally. Thankfully, the narrative is slowly unraveling and I hope within another 10 years we will get back to real science.
Impoverishing the people & consolidating power to those who impoverish the people.
Sure it is champ, you're not crazy alarmists, you're hero's, not delusional at all.
I've stopped needeing more reasons to prepare a few years ago. If anything is painfully obvious, it's that at least the climate and demographic issues will hit us like a brick, since nobody is even seriously talking about it, let alone try and deal with it. Call me pesimistic all you want, but my intuition sees a "perfect storm" forming over us. The two things mentioned above are just a part of it and it's about to break this century 100%. The question is not if, but when.
Some years ago people jokingly asked if we were living in Idiocracy, the movie. In some decades, people will be jokingly asking if we are living in 2012, the movie:p
Got any extra aluminum foil?....I'd like to make a hat too .
@BERZERKERSV4 the current approach to the demographic issue is literally "fingers crossed and hope for the best". No alu foil, but I have something better: history books. This is far from being our first rodeo. It happens roughly once in 250 years. Also, what the internet has shown us is that access to information was never the real issue.
@dagda101 then why are the banks still lending on ocean front property ? Business over your half baked science any day
you are not a pesimist, your brain ist just functioning properly. question is: can you prepare for the end of civilisation?
The Permian basin may be rapidly running dry, but there is still enough to boil the frog.
What?
Really enjoyed this one specifically
more on subjects like this. its a great change of pace
New Orleans resident here. He’s right about the people transforming the city into an aquarium. It is the rare building (usually a slum lord’s apartments) that still doesn’t have air conditioning.
Growing up in the 70’s, the typical summer weather growing up was June: highs in the low 90’s (33C) and lows in the mid 70’s (24C).
In August back then it was highs in the mid 90s (35C) with lows near 80 (27C).
These days, the June weather is similar to last century’s August weather, and August now sees hi 90s (37C) and lows in the low 80s (28C).
The one constant through all this is lots of subtropical humidity, with dew points close to the low temperatures.
June, July, August, and early September are when the locals stay inside their air conditioned everything.
i know I do.
It's worth noting that the 1970s was an uncharacteristically cool period for Louisiana and much of the gulf and deep south region of the US. The temperatures in the early 20th century were higher.
I sit here in Boston at 6am on November 1st drinking my coffee outside in shorts and a t shirt because it is 65 degrees - shaking my head that there are still people that think none of this is real.
Enjoy it while it lasts! Boston has been in the 80’s in November in the early 20th century. Eventually it’s gonna get miserable cold which is good for what purpose??
@pringlw Everyday the weather changes. If you go back into the known climate record which at the most is only a couple hundred years old and not very good due to instruments of various types, there is a small increase in temps. The disputes are on what causes the warming as there are millions of factors.
@pringlw
this year is the year of maximum solar activity, which is why it is so warm.
Enjoy the beautiful weather because now it will get cooler every year
Pay more taxes to change the weather. Lol
Wow, sounds amazing!
6 Degrees? That is way, way beyond anything the IPCC is forecasting. In other words, real doomerism. Very odd.
Actually, it's not. It follows one of the IPCC pathway models for the worst case.
@@justmenotyou3151 OK, correct. But what it entails is basically no decarbonization and massive amounts of new coal-burning plants. What likelihood does the IPCC attribute to 6C? 2%?
Jim Skea of the IPCC is going to shake a lot up with their new reports. He seems like a closet skeptic
Extreme predictions is his whole shtick.
China will “collapse,” he says. Inflation will be super high for a decade, he says. Of course he says six degrees.
@@PsillyApeUSA what's his take?
Peter Z sums up yet another big problem that isn't getting solved.
.
The earth is warming, the winds do shift,
The skies above give no soft lift.
Yet, in the soil, beneath our feet,
A quiet peace, a pulse so sweet.
Return to nature, where life once grew,
And in her arms, find skies more true.
The heat may rise, the storms may roar,
But in the ground, we root once more.
I moved to the Phoenix, AZ area in 1977. Back then, we were guaranteed to get 7-10 nights of freezing weather every winter. Now it's more like a hard freeze every 7-10 years. There are trees (ficus nitidia) here that are 30-40 feet tall that if you go back to a gardening book written in the 70s, it says these trees won't survive a winter in this zone. The summers are a bit warmer as well, but the main feature is the number of days when the temperature is, say, above 110 degrees Fahrenheit. Climate change is here. You need to have your head in the sand to think otherwise.
Climate change was here, starting at the end of the glacial max, about 11,600 BC.
@@Egilhelmson *face palm*
This past summer Kingman, normally about 10*F less hot than Phoenix, had Phoenix level temps, and in Phoenix, Bullhead City, Havasu, and Yuma it was.... nothing I ever want to visit. I did ok with a small mobile swamp cooler and a ceiling fan until this summer, when I had to actually get a small AC unit (I'm in a small tiny house, half my roof is shaded by a large pine thank goodness.)
I've ~20 years experience in SG.
Most new or upgrade homes are part of the modern 'air-conditioned nation'.
Older
"The breeze cools." not when nighttime temperatures don't drop below 80 degrees.
Fully on board your analysis. But I'd recommend you apply this analysis to all of your other videos which don't seem to acknowledge this reality.
Exactly. You can’t just keep burning fossil fuels without accelerating climate change.
You are awesome your insights have listened to a lot of your videos with great interest thank you for doing this as a service of information Peter😊
Chuffed that you've gotten to this topic Peter, bravo, bravo.
You are a respected and prolific content producer and information disseminator. You are the right person, at the right time talking the right topic.
Hopefully you'll be doing many more on this gargantuan topic, as the problem of climate change will be accelerating for the fore-coming 200 years (give or take), at least. For example:
- spreading wet-bulb temperature (great coverage in this video Peter)
- abrupt halting of the Gulf Stream's big brother, the AMOC, sending Northern Europe (and possibly the NE coast of Nth America) into a mini-ice-age whilst the rest of the planet swelters
- global concurrent wildfires
- methane release from thawing permafrost and (especially in the Arctic Seas) shallow sub-marine clathrates (methane hydrates)
[ps. 4 Gg carbon in the atmosphere, 250 Gg carbon in the permafrost alone]
- global sea-level rise and accompanying displacement
- equatorial desertification
- agricultural decimation (excellent coverage here)
- displacement and migration of hundreds of millions to billions of climate refugees, forcing conflict.
You're the best presenter I've seen at joining the dots of cause and effect. Good luck on this one Peter.
Michael Barrett, Sydney
ps. An excellent resource for peer-review journal articles focusing on the cutting edge of this is "Paul Beckwith" -- YT channel.
Bring on nuclear energy!
Nuclear, wind, solar, batteries, insulation in homes, and research into other, non-carbon ways to produce and save money. Next, we are going to have to address overpopulation. The population will drop below a billion within the next century through wars for food and water and migration, starvation, etc.
@@freeheeler09 you won't save money when it comes to nuclear
@@petershaw6346doesn’t damage the future economy nearly as much as burning fossil fuels does
there is not enough uranium for this stupid solution, think again.
@@SigFigNewton you're right but nuclear isn't even needed as other renewables are cheaper, cleaner and safer
Peter, meterologist here... I dont know where you got your intel on climate information, but if it is similar for other geopolitical intel... then you have just become HIGHLY unreliable. Your geopolitical and infrastructure commentary are correct based on this doomsday scenario. But, and this is a HUGE BUT... you are following climate model information from RCP 8.5 (actually sounds worse) which is a GARBAGE scenario. Observational trends are below the 10th percentile scenario runs and the scenario you espouse here is 99th.
It is dooms mongering like this that emboldens the "other side" because these scenarios do NOT come true... Yet climate warms and effects slowly build and it has become 100% political and science dies. I have seen it in my career, I have seen it with good and bad scientists just trying to keep jobs.
Start RATIONAL discourse now. Leverage off human engineering ingenuity! Nuclear is a great start... but NIMBY fear rules the political space and stops us feom getting what we both want. High energy and reduced CO2
So you're saying we have a chance?
Absolutely insane to see Peter quoting RCP 8.5, with his justification being that deglobalization will cause most economies to use fossil fuels. Doesn't he understand that RCP 8.5 not only relies on all countries using fossil fuels, but also massive economic and population growth? How is that happening in his deglobalization scenario?
Could you elaborate what the problem with the model is?
All criticism I found in the last 20 minutes was either void of any specifics or so technical I spent more time looking up terms than reading.
@@Syntaxstic🤣🤣
Science is already dead, discredited, and unreliable. It has become a kind of shamanism, and in some cases, such as "climate change", it has become outright charlatanism.
Appreciate more focus on this topic
Get your solar power while you can folks. I live at 60° north and I just had 11 kW of solar panels install installed. Today it’s cool and windy but sunny so my panels are generating near 2 kW of power. The solar panels charge a battery stack, which is also recharged in the middle of the night when the spot price is at the lowest. Since we do experience about four months of dunkelflaute up here I have a wood-burning stove and a pinch. In the summer when I am generating crazy amounts of electricity and selling it back to the grid, I use that as a credit for the winter time when the prices are higher in, my production is lower. It’s not perfect, but it’s pretty darn good.
We are getting them too, but I can't help but wonder how much of the earth will be dug up to create my panels and other components. And, how much this new energy source impacts biodiversity loss. Is there any way we can tread lightly on this earth with such a high species level metabolism?
Great summary of the early impact of climate change
Peter Zeihan: "since I hate humidity, if you get temperatures over 90ºF for too long with high humidity you will die". Here in Brazil, summer has temperatures over 100ºF through out the summer with over 90% humidity since the beginning of time and we are still here
Bet the average life expectancy is not above 70 tho. That humidity is a killer for the elderly
@@salamandiusbraveheart4183
so is -40C
Your mistake is trusting your experience. Trust the men in white coats with the hockey stick and it will all make sense.
@MicaelSG23 100 degrees with a RH of 90%!!!!! That is a dew point of 96.4F! Congrats on breaking the world record by a solid degree and a half. I think the RH% was 90% in the morning when temps were in the 80s. Not pleasant... but I declare BS.
At a certain point sweating doesn't help to cool the body down. You can easily test this for yourself. Visit a sauna. There you have high temperatures and low humidity. You can last quite a while. Now try the same thing in a steam bath. Use the same temperatures and you will be cooked.
Peter has that "I am so sorry about that discovered blackface picture of me in high school 30 years ago" thumbnail.
Surprised you didn't mention the soon to be shipping routes around the North Pole, providing alternative to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca, radically changing geopolitics.
No infrastructure i.e. harbours along that route, so you'd be on your own if your ship develops a problem. Also there are serious worries about the AMOC collapsing and that would make things a lot colder again over there, due to stopping the heat redistribution from equator to northpole area.
I know you probably won’t read this, but I have a great book recommendation for you. It’s called losing our cool by Stan Cox. Great info on the history of AC and the issues with it.
Thanks Peter
Cue the Trump University climatologists.
I think you're quite wrong in this topic. I'll be very surprised if before 2060 the current climate apocallypsis in which we are involved doesn't wipe out at least 1/3 of the popultation. I mean, fertility rate is already well below 2.1 for 75% of the counties, most of low height regions as much of indo-pacific islands and places like Florida will just be flooded constanly, the AMOC is already collapsing and probably will break the rain cycles crippling our capacity to grow crops while turning Europe in a place constantly leveled by storms, etc, etc. Fortunately, survivors will have plenty of rich people to eat...
I just pray that you are wrong...
The science says Billions will die and great wars will break out over diminishing resources.......next year half of my province of Alberta is expected to Burn ?????...the premier has Banned Renewable Energy Plants as a visual Eyesore......in the land of a million Oil Derricks !!!
I have lived in Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand over the past six years and unfortunately i am seeing all this happening with my own eyes.
Watching formula1-drivers drive the singapore race (or the Qatar race) is almost uncomfortable. Drivers throwing up while driving, asking for the pits crews to just dump buckets of water over them during pitstops. After the races drivers are stumbling away from the cars, some going directly to paramedics. High dew-point is not fun for the human body
I'm sorry but you can't discern climate change in 6 years. This is a phenomena measuring hundreds of years. And this is the problem with people, they latch on to any thing that reinforces their belief
@@TimRobertsen
That is to funny.....and total BS..
@@BERZERKERSV4 Just watch the 2023 Qatar GP ;)
@@TimRobertsen I live in central Florida where 100% humidity is a daily occurrence..stop being a poosie and grow up..
Man, I love those aspens. Such awesome country. At 76, I have never witnessed hurricanes forming one after the other in the Southwest corner of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. We are now seeing the formation of the 4th or 5th system from there this year. Never have I witnessed such a thing. As a kid, we played outside during the summer. We had no air conditioning, yet I do not remember one summer being as hot and dry as the last 5 or 6 years. We used to play in cooling summer thunderstorms and frequent showers, that no longer come. I have witnessed bayous dry up this year that never even came close before. I saw hundreds of majestic oaks die from drought this and last summer. How can anyone be a denier? I used to be, but no longer.
Great coverage of a big topic. It's early days but we're all seeing changes that we don't want to see. We're reaching the time where someone is going to say it: "Coastal areas within 5-10 miles of the water are unsafe to build on". Risks in other areas, like mountains or mountain valleys, are right behind coastal zones in terms of risk. Obviously, there are more areas. We probably have time but we need to start getting honest with our future living space and those in other parts of the world.
Here's your clue:
Manmade climatechangeis 100g HOAX. Doesn't exist. Flat out LIE.
Been watching these climate lies for half a century. Literally NONE have come true. None.
In the 1970s they told us the Earth was headed into a 10,000 year Ice Age. In the 1980s they screevhed about globalwarming. We all remarked: "Shortest Ice Age EVER!"
They screeched that the ice caps were going to melt and flood the globe... by 1992... 1998... 2000... 2004... 2008... 2011... 2019... 2022... *yawn* still waiting...
FACT:
The sun controls 98% 0f global climate.
Volcanoes control 2%.
All of mankind throughout all of history COMBINED accounts for 0.0000006% of global climate. Mankind is completely and utterly insignificant to global climate.
If the Earth gets to +6 degrees Centigrade (+10.8 Fahrenheit) we will not need to worry about infrastructure or agriculture. Most of the Earth's animal population (not just human) will have died off. Arthropods will rule the world! Yes, the Earth has been about this hot in the last 65 million years (e.g. PETM)... but it never reached this temperature in such a short time span. The issue is not absolute temperature, the issue is the rate of change. GLTA
And 65 mn years ago, we mammals lived in holes in the ground because at certain wet bulb temperatures we just die.
There are inhabited places on the planet that experience 70C change across the year. Many places change 25C in a day.
Humans have experienced this rate of change before. We have experienced sea level rise over 100 meters during our time. We will deal.
@@yt.damian are they growing food there? How many people live in extreme environments like that? Billions?
@@markbrock8662 No, we have never done so. And without animals and sustainable crops, we are dead.
If its 6 degrees we're all dead, so the rest of the video is just noise.
Not all, but the casualties will be unprecedented.
I’m not worried, it’s frustrating atm because it seems like every one doesn’t care but it’s more that the technology isn’t there. Soon it will be, in what ever form it takes.
There’s nothing much countries can really do right as nothing is viable large scale.
I would think that learning to live with our own species would be more important, because if we can't, it won't be climate that kills us off.
@ the only way this happens is we invent more distracting tech.
Biology wants us to to join a group and fight the other group as keeps happening over and over.
The IPCC revised their estimate to 2.5 degrees C as the worst case. 6 degrees is pretty much scaremongering and not supported by the current climate science.
I'm in Bangladesh where my extended family is trying to convince me to stay. in case I do the first order of business is my vasectomy. no way in hell am I giving my kids a death sentence before they're even born
Sad you bought into the biggest grift in history. The de-growth movement is behind the climate change lie. Please read about the 2 times the IPCC had their email servers hacked. Both times showed coordinated worldwide data manipulation and that if they didn’t come out with the pre-determined government narrative, they would lose their funding. And, it was first called global cooling, then global warming and now climate change. Please, use your brain and not their lies.
Good - Please encourage everyone in Bangladesh to get a vasectomy. The Planet thanks you.
Be safe bro, bangladesh area is already facing climate change problem.
this is so dumb. but go ahead, we need less dumb people in the world anyway.
When I see families with young children I think the parents are either very brave or naive - I grieve.
Cogent and astute analysis of the number one global political and biological challenge that is either completely misunderstood or ignored by all political candidates. More climate change analysis and prognostication going forward please.
More content on this subject please. :)
Australian farmer here. Wrong on the food growing areas of Australia. Food is produced on almost the entire length of the East coast. We've had less severe weather events and milder temperatures. Data modelling is great for selling things.
We go from record bushfires to record flooding depending on if there's an El Nino or La Nina weather system. But I'm glad your farm is unaffected.
@@antoncarmoducchi6057 thanks for this input, this climate mania is crazy
@@ivan-xthundreds of millions of climate refugees.
They’ll be coming to a decade near you
Sydney resident here...I couldn't breath the air in 2019 due to the bushfires that killed over a billion animals. Ski seasons are getting shorter due to Australia experiencing the hottest winter on record in 2023...."less severe weather"? You aren't looking very hard mate
Remember, climate and data models are a product to be sold as well.
Where is he getting 6 Celsius from, even the looney apocalyptic people say 4
Remember they just keep pushing the numbers higher and hope their followers don't realize their last numbers were way off.
Even at current CO2 emissions, we'll have 4-5 C by 2100, and emissions are still rising. If there is a widespread shift to coal as Peter suggests, 6 C is fully possible. Like it or not, but you can't argue with data.
what data model did he use
I moved to southern ontario in 1970, and almost every fall we had a so called Indian summer , "Indian Summer, popular expression for a period of mild, summerlike weather which occurs in the autumn, usually after the first frost. The origins of the name are obscure, but it was in use early in the 19th century in Canada and even earlier in the US" What I was able to find that this phrase was mentioned going back to 1778.
Very well stated!
I've been hearing a lot of climate prophecies since I was in high school in the '80s. Our data sets are screwed because the NOAA sites their weather stations next to buildings and airports next to jet engines. Then, they 'massage the data' to get 'real data'.... We were going to hit 'peak oil' in the early '90s. CO2 is 0.4% of our atmo and at 0.2% plants die. While rich folks own oceanfront properties, like Barak Obama's Martha's Vineyard compound, and insurance companies continue to cover them, the canary in the coal mine is still squawking. Yes, climate changes. Humans have some part in it but until the IPCC executive summary actually matches the content of their reports, it's political garbage that feeds an ideology. If you 'believe in science', actually believe it and strap on ideology filter.
That's simply not true. Infrastructure is sometimes built around weather stations but the heat island effect is well known to meteoroligists. Temperatures at rural weather stations show the same trends. Predictions of peak oil have nothing to do with climatology. New drilling techniques, oil sand extraction and fracking have opened up more fossil fuel reserves.
Big Tobacco "smoking is safe and healthy"; Big Oil "burning fossil fuels for 2 centuries doesn't affect our climate".... You have the credibility of a con man selling snake oil.
@@thomasnewcomb2079 The fossil fuel company's scientists knew what would happen, that's why their projections were hidden. Supran - Assessing ExxonMobil's Global Warming Projections - Science.
@@JJRM8 I'm sorry you couldn't extrapolate the thought of the peak oil prophesy to the other prophecies all being bogus. By far, the weather stations relied upon were placed long after the site was built. There are actual photos out in the world you can look at if you're interested.
@@Buran01 No, I'm just a scientist that looks at data and not paid by 'big oil' or any other carbon based industry. You do realize that your smoking is safe trope has nothing to do with with climate science, right? And that handle... "Buran".... big fan of Soviet stuff? Do you help shell out the money to the green movement??
Good analysis. I'm less worried about the shortage of food than I am about the forced migration from unlivable climates. In marginal economic areas that's a recipe for political upheaval and war. Central America/Mexico, Pakistan/India, Iran/Saudi, and the east Asian island nations like Indonesia with heavy overpopulation, mean displacement of over 1 billion people in the next twenty to thirty years. Along with the decoupling of labor and productivity (AI manufacturing), it's hard to see how these people will be able to survive let alone thrive. Some days I feel like I'm watching the tide come in on a sandcastle and I'm watching to see if the next wave will make it crumble, certain of the inevitability but hopeful none the less. The boost in wealth by AI will make these problems surmountable but not without an enlightened level of societal reorganization and wealth redistribution. I'm pretty sure once the first wave takes down the sandcastle outer wall and fills the moat, the kids will pile on top of the castle and pound it into a lumpy mound.
😂😂😂😂
Siberia and Canada will be the new destinations.
@jkmarshall3553 ummm...ok. moonbat
@user-ej1yi4lv9v Peter makes the same mistake of linear thinking in his forecasting. Yes the energy draw is huge, not just for AI but for reshoring manufacturing and all the AI bots we will buy to wash the dishes. Balancing that will be exponential growth in energy generation - solar, oil, small nuclear - plenty of potential to grow. More importantly is the progressive halving of the energy needed as we get more mature - my phone runs on a low voltage charger but is faster and smarter than a warehouse full of 1970's super computers that required their own power plant.
@@JJthename55 What does "moonbat" mean? As an insult, it is quite amusing. Compare _mooncalf._
6 degrees C is HUGE!
6 degrees C, we're toast!
6c is a dystopia
Look to 1. 4 degrees 2. Collapse of West Antartica in 2028 3. Flooding of entire Eastern Seaboard by 2029. Peter: this is a good analysis and I shared it on FB. We need to be realistic and we should be panicking.
Here's your clue:
Manmade climatechangeis 100g HOAX. Doesn't exist. Flat out LIE.
Been watching these climate lies for half a century. Literally NONE have come true. None.
In the 1970s they told us the Earth was headed into a 10,000 year Ice Age. In the 1980s they screevhed about globalwarming. We all remarked: "Shortest Ice Age EVER!"
They screeched that the ice caps were going to melt and flood the globe... by 1992... 1998... 2000... 2004... 2008... 2011... 2019... 2022... *yawn* still waiting...
FACT:
The sun controls 98% 0f global climate.
Volcanoes control 2%.
All of mankind throughout all of history COMBINED accounts for 0.0000006% of global climate. Mankind is completely and utterly insignificant to global climate.
Lots of scientists are becoming quite alarmed because the actual warming we are measuring is more extensive than even the worst-case models. In that case, we are looking at more than 6 degrees C. One of the most significant p[problems will be extended periods where the temp/humidity never gets low enough for recovery. Peter talks about this as being unfortunate, but we could be looking at mass deaths of millions over a few days as large parts of the population cannot be evacuated or cooled sufficiently.
the problem with climate science is that is it dependent on government grants which brings politics into it.
It isn’t a debate though. It’s clear reality
Some information makes an old man think that it would be nice to be younger, to have the expectation that one might live to see the future and to benefit from improvements. Other stories bring up a certain gratitude that one is unlikely to live long enough to suffer through the impending disintegration and collapse. While Mr. Zeihan’s effectiveness as a thoughtful information synthesizer and story teller is noteworthy, this particular story is a paving stone on the path of inter-generational schadenfreude.
I suggest reading Best Things First by Bjorn Lomborg.....
Lomborg isn't a scientist and constantly spreads misinformation about the Climate.
Minnesotan here. Our climate seems to be moderating. Summers haven’t been as sweltering either. Winters have definitely been warmer. And we have lots of water.
Minnesota is not the world. In the Mediterranean, the changes aren't so rosy. Just take a glance from the news, more extreme weather events like flash flooding in Spain and droughts in Sicily take a heavy toll on the region. But it's sure nice you have a good time in your backyard.
I listen to this guy a lot, just to hear his perspective. Little things strike me odd though...besides what I would argue are simplistic arguments (in other words, taking a broad view but ignoring the many possibilities that might crop up unforeseen, at least factoring in the likelihood of such events) but then saying “nucular” and “centigrade” for example really puts a pin to the “I see things clearer” balloon.
Excellent video but Success depends on the actions or steps you take to achieve it. Building wealth involves developing good habits regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Financial management is a crucial topic that most tend to shy away from, and ends up haunting them in the near future.., I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life!!
You're correct!! I make a lot of money without relying on the government,
Investing in stocks and digital currencies is beneficial at this moment.
I remember as a child growing up in Montana, the extremely cold weather and incredible amounts of snow we used to get in the winter. We still get that same weather, I just remember that.
Nice
You and me brother. I grew up in Plains over on the west side of the state, the weather has remained pretty much the same
Northern Ontario here, it is definitely getting warmer. I had about 15 50ft tall american elms around the house and they had been there for 60-70 years, started 8 years ago, they all died because the winter didn't get cold enough to kill the beetles that prey on them. After some research, found out the same was happening in MN
Ah, yes, the human memory. Long known to be the most reliable source on how present values differ (or don’t) from those of the past.
@@Taber01 Get ready for palms to replace.
Scary Stuff - Peter outdid himself this time....
Halloween was yesterday!
Were getting to two season planting in central NY, not corn but select crops. Love how you check out.
First, we will NOT see full deglobalization. Second, many, if not all, of these predictions NEVER take into account innovation and adaptation.
Re your second point: no, they don't, for the simple reason that it's impossible to predict those things and so if you try to then all you can say is that clever humans will solve it all therefore there's nothing to worry about. Taking *that* line puts you on the side of those who deny that climate change matters.
Which you might say is the ultimate gamble.
1:04 If anyone expects we're gonna go to +6°C by 2100, they must think humanity is doomed.
At that high an increase, wine is made in Scandinavia. India and China and most of the US become unlivable. You'd be able to start farming on Antarctica...
We'd see _massive_ migrations and civil wars and droughts/famines.
As in, the best-case scenario is that 10% of the world population survives...
For all intents and purposes, it would not just be the end of every country we know today, but probably civilization itself.
You can forget about multinationals, international trade, stock markets, consumerism, or anything resembling the current grind of education in youth and work in adulthood.
All of it will simply collapse and cease to exist...
And tipping points move from a scary nightmare to almost certainty.
A 90% drop in global spieces (from all the add-on effects) would be well within the cards.
There is no government or military or solo survivalist guru who can cope with that much change in such a short time period...
Seriously, if Peter truly thought 6°C was more-plausible, the best thing he can hope for is that he dies before 2050. And if he has kids, oof....
You are so disrecpectful towards the Emirates and saudis . saying they live in fish bowls and work slaves to the ground . I love it !
You spelled "honest" wrong.
Thank you
Once the crops fail, we all die. How much heat can be added to the atmosphere before that happens? 3 degrees? 4 degrees? And obviously once it hits 4 degrees, it won't stop or reverse. I'd be surprised if we have 20 good years left...but on the plus side- at least you don't worry too much about your 30 year mortgage.
Doomsday climate models depend on slight warming from carbon to increase the water capacity of the air, with water vapor being the primary driver of the greenhouse effect. The assumption they make is that this capacity for water vapor is always maxed out, but real world data doesn't back that assumption up.
The models have been underestimating the effects, not overestimating