Based on callers ID of caller preflop - someone generally too tight to 3b suited broadways, combined with the A and Q of spades being on board, I cant really think of logical value - most players at this level would be afraid of the flush with AA. I grimace and call.
Bart when you said “If the Ace of spades wasn’t out there…” but in that case, black kings would have the nut flush blocker anymore. I think that a better card to give the villain more credibly would be if the Q wasn’t a spade
That flop raise was just to see if Hero had an Ace or not. With Hero just calling out of position, it's very likely villain thinks he is better off with KK. The Q doesn't change anything as it goes check check, as Hero most likely won't have AQ since he just called the small raise on the flop. He can have QQ, but not betting the turn OOP on a draw heavy board with the straight in there, villain would still think he's better off. But a better way for him to check Hero's strength would have been to bet the turn as well, as he still has the nut flush blocker. And now that he didn't bet, as Bart said, I am never keeping villain on the flush draw anymore. I would be keeping him on Kx on the flop for sure. And the river jam with the flush out there is a very typical semi bluff. Villain knows he's most likely beating all single pairs out there, as most likely Hero doesn't have Aces. From the villains perspective, what could the hero have called the Flop with that doesn't have an Ace. Most likely could be JJs or QQs or a Q high or J high club draw. Only likely combo for the Hero in that case is J10c or QJ or QTc. He obviously hit the Q on the turn but he would still check call the turn in case the villain bet the turn to keep the pot under control and hope to hit the flush/straight on the river, and if he hits the straight on the turn, he's betting anyway. So the 2s on the river is essentially a brick if the villain were to think of it, so his KK is still the best hand and he has the nut blocker. If he had the nut flush, even if he's not raising the turn, he's value betting the river on that sized pot, as he would want a call from a Q or a straight. So the river shove is definitely a call. It's more than obvious that he has KK or maybe worst case he has KQc.
If hungry horse was to turn KK into a bluff (which I don’t think he would do here), he would barrel turn. The fact that he checked the turn capped him especially when the flush comes in on the river. I thought maybe a slow played straight but would that ever jam on the river for 6x pot when the spades get there?
I had the same thought when I saw the small bet on the flop. That strategy also requires that we know our opponent, and don't just assume that good hands are always betting/raising strong hands.
My gut said fold. I couldn't imagine any reg taking this line as a bluff. That being said, I agree that the turn check was the most suspicious part of the line. I was scared that Villain had AA, but the turn check would've screwed him. Overall, nice call by Hero. Didn't let fear get to him.
Why in the world would AA bet tiny flop and then check turn? If afraid of JT, they'd just call river. The line literally can't be any value that was ever even vaguely properly played. It's always either a bluff or an utterly nonsensical spazz line with JT or a backdoor flush.
@privacyplease64 they're scared of losing with it. They literally never bet small when there's a bunch of draws, check when the board brings in a ton more new draws and then insanely overbet river when half the draws hit.
Well villain 3bet preflop and if he were to have AA that 25 dollar bet on the flop would make some sense, since u flopped the world. I was actually kinda convinced villain had aces and just hoped hero cant have any flushes nor jt and wanted max value.. Would have worked here@@Jermo484
Every time an opponent moves in on the river, and the caller says ‘he thinks for a minute and then he jams’…. BART always repeats him “HE JAMS?” in a shocked voice, even though he obviously knows the hand details in advance. 😂
Sometimes he doesn't caller don't reveal also he screens these probably a week ahead of time for a minute he doesn't really remember so he is actually surprised
I swear, some live players get so excited to have a nut flush blocker, they over-bet bluff... but they fail to think about how the action went, and how the betting went. These players apply certain poker concepts which they've learned online - yet they fail to consider all of the OTHER variables involved! This villain deserved to get stacked!! Good call, hero.
Hilarious. One of my favourite lines in recent weeks. I even go 5$ on the flop here. It adds another street to the whole hand and makes everything awkward. I love it.
The title might have influenced my thinking, but I was right about what the villain had. I swear when the average low stakes player learns about blockers they go nuts with lines like this that don't make any sense.
That flop raise was just to see if Hero had an Ace or not. With Hero just calling out of position, it's very likely villain thinks he is better off with KK. The Q doesn't change anything as it goes check check, as Hero most likely won't have AQ since he just called the small raise on the flop. He can have QQ, but not betting the turn OOP on a draw heavy board with the straight in there, villain would still think he's better off. But a better way for him to check Hero's strength would have been to bet the turn as well, as he still has the nut flush blocker. And now that he didn't bet, as Bart said, I am never keeping villain on the flush draw anymore. I would be keeping him on Kx on the flop for sure. And the river jam with the flush out there is a very typical semi bluff. Villain knows he's most likely beating all single pairs out there, as most likely Hero doesn't have Aces. From the villains perspective, what could the hero have called the Flop with that doesn't have an Ace. Most likely could be JJs or QQs or a Q high or J high club draw. Only likely combo for the Hero in that case is J10c or QJ or QTc. He obviously hit the Q on the turn but he would still check call the turn in case the villain bet the turn to keep the pot under control and hope to hit the flush/straight on the river, and if he hits the straight on the turn, he's betting anyway. So the 2s on the river is essentially a brick if the villain were to think of it, so his KK is still the best hand and he has the nut blocker. If he had the nut flush, even if he's not raising the turn, he's value betting the river on that sized pot, as he would want a call from a Q or a straight. So the river shove is definitely a call. It's more than obvious that he has KK or maybe worst case he has KQc.
The more interesting question for me is would the hero call with a hand that was worse than a set? Does he call with all or any 2 pairs he arrived here with? What about an AK, or other Ax hands?
I swear I was putting him on KK until the river Jam. Bets small on an A high flop so his hand doesn’t become too faced up by checking it back, and then checks turn… but when he jammed the river I was like “ok never mind” 😂
Yes! The preflop three-bet and small flop bet make sense for KK. The turn check and River jam mystified me. Obviously, people's lines don't always make sense. The only way I put Villain on a flush here is to add hands to his range on the River after he jams, which is a no-no.
I think it’s a fold for two reasons 1) when a person makes this type of play we can’t really consider/count out what he has as he’s taking such a weird line 2) we aren’t pot committed and risking a stack in that case is not profitable, as there are straights and flushes that beat us, the only thing i’d think with besides a flush would be JT 3) V may have some small flushes (76 56) as low stakes players tend to c-bet 100% of their range. He bets small on the flop to fold if he gets raised and takes a free card on turn. He can have any flush in that case as played
This analysis completely disregards the preflop action. All of the possible hands you mentioned almost never take the PF line villain did, much less check back the turn.
@@Rwl751i see many recs playing suited connectors as 3bet pre from co or btn. i’d say any hand like 76 or 65 or spades is logical, the flop sizing is screaming that V’s afraid of an ace, and taking a free card on the turn in position to realize the equity is also a common thing in low stakes
@@Rwl751also, if a player isn’t playing a “standard” way postflop, he aint doing it preflop either. I woulndt be suprised if villain even had some garbage like J7 of spades
I thought the 25 dollar bet was weak and fully expected a turn check. With that in mind, I probably lead the turn and bet big because the board is so wet and because the Queen is probably bad for him. Maybe I suck at poker, but I want draws to pay or fold. Checking the turn and allowing a draw to get there and then having too good a hand to fold is not something I want to do to myself.
KK with a spade makes perfect sense with how the villain played it. Afraid of the A on yhe gloo so he bets very small to guage if her has an Ax holding. Although i personally would have C-bet more. Onced called he has to think hero has Ax a high probability of time, so he checks the turn and once the hero leads out on the river for such a small bet villain has yo bluff to win the hand abd he's holding the nut flush blocker so he overbet jams trying yo get Ax to fold. Villain could have won yhe pot if he took a different line on flop and turn, which makes his jam much more credible for holding KJ or K10 of spades.
Snap-call! The moment you say he jams the spade river after checking back the turn and the baby flop bet, I blurted out KK with Ks. Not AK with Ks because he's value betting flop and turn with those. ❤😂
It had to be a holding with the K of spades in it and KK with the K of spades made the most sense. KJ and KT of spades barrel turn (and probably don't 3-bet pre vs UTG open) and KQo with K of spades also probably doesn't 3-bet pre against UTG open. And hand like JT spades will bet turn and smaller flushes on the river would have semibluffed turn and don't shove river over a raise.
On the river I was immediately thinking overbet to 200 and fold to a raise. We get beat every now and again when called, but we prob almost never get raised as a bluff by overbetting.
The jam is so wild I have to flick it in n honestly no tank just snap that shit in. But I wonder if there is an appropriate amount that villain could have raised that would make a more convincing fold
There is one hand the villian could have that could be played this way and gets the backdoor flush and that hand is 9 10 of spades Surprisingly Bart didn’t mention that
In my experience, typical cash players are afraid of three to a flush on the board if the Ace is not one of those. If the Ace is on the board, they are not nearly as afraid of someone having a King high nut flush.
I think the one hand might have some sense which is J10 of spades played especially tricky bcs board so locked but not everyone would have 3bet it and it should be bet on turn to get value but i can see sometimes being a check alhtough then jamming it on river without nut spades also kinda doesnt make sense when Hero might have nut flush with like K9s also so it would be kinda suicidal.
The villain’s raise size on river makes no sense. A raise to $300 or $400 would have accomplished nearly the same and not be so unbalanced. Unless he’s really trying to get folds from sets, straights, and low flushes (JT or T9 spades). If I was villain, I’d have just called the $75 and lost to the set. Price was good. Opponent could have had missed clubs, JJ, TT, etc.. As for hero, I’d have folded as I can’t imagine anyone overbetting that hard in my low stakes games unless they have exactly the nuts or are super drunk.
That hand should jam turn, not river. If Hero also has JT (excluding JT Clubs, which probably gets more active on the flop), you are free-rolling for stacks. It should fold out any hands with equity, such as flush draws and sets. And, if Hero calls the jam with a set or draw and rivers you, then you know you will eventually own the Hero's house if you get to play with him long enough.
I disagree that Villain’s turn check precludes him having a spade flush draw. He wouldn’t always bet the increased turn equity since any A will likely call. More importantly, There’s a well known principle to sometimes/often check back a nut flush draw so as to not get check raised off of equity …which is certainly possible as the JT straight comes in, or AQ, or QQ or a slow played flopped set. This can also explain the $25 flop bet… to buy free back door river card, as some folks do. That’s why a Hero turn lead should be strongly considered, as advised. Yes, Villain’s river sizing might be suspicious if he wanted to get value for a flush… but he can certainly have it. In this case, Hero has to be right about 80% of the time (1300/1650). If the most likely bluffs contain the Ks, there’s 3 combos KsK and 3 of KsA and 1 KsQ and sometimes KsJ. Say 8 bluffs. For value, There’s KJs and KTs as well as sometimes K9s, (as well as T9s and even 76s, though these flushes wouldn’t likely jam). Also sometimes So say 8 likely bluffs against say 3 value….its close. But Villain can certainly have a flush.
@@Rahul-eh3rfRight. Good point. 44% and 50% are drastically different over the long run and most players don't realize that. That's where the extra profit is.
I had him in j10s here, because it's a line I would take in my private game. Basically the immortal nuts unless a river club, I'm not scared to give a free card there and completely mask my holding with a big chance of playing for stacks on most rivers
If you were in the hero’s seat, would you have folded or called? Explain your reasoning
Based on callers ID of caller preflop - someone generally too tight to 3b suited broadways, combined with the A and Q of spades being on board, I cant really think of logical value - most players at this level would be afraid of the flush with AA. I grimace and call.
Call. Never folding a set here as jam makes no sense.
How is 25, 12% of 135?
Edit: never mind lol
Bart when you said “If the Ace of spades wasn’t out there…” but in that case, black kings would have the nut flush blocker anymore.
I think that a better card to give the villain more credibly would be if the Q wasn’t a spade
That flop raise was just to see if Hero had an Ace or not. With Hero just calling out of position, it's very likely villain thinks he is better off with KK. The Q doesn't change anything as it goes check check, as Hero most likely won't have AQ since he just called the small raise on the flop. He can have QQ, but not betting the turn OOP on a draw heavy board with the straight in there, villain would still think he's better off. But a better way for him to check Hero's strength would have been to bet the turn as well, as he still has the nut flush blocker. And now that he didn't bet, as Bart said, I am never keeping villain on the flush draw anymore. I would be keeping him on Kx on the flop for sure. And the river jam with the flush out there is a very typical semi bluff. Villain knows he's most likely beating all single pairs out there, as most likely Hero doesn't have Aces. From the villains perspective, what could the hero have called the Flop with that doesn't have an Ace. Most likely could be JJs or QQs or a Q high or J high club draw. Only likely combo for the Hero in that case is J10c or QJ or QTc. He obviously hit the Q on the turn but he would still check call the turn in case the villain bet the turn to keep the pot under control and hope to hit the flush/straight on the river, and if he hits the straight on the turn, he's betting anyway. So the 2s on the river is essentially a brick if the villain were to think of it, so his KK is still the best hand and he has the nut blocker. If he had the nut flush, even if he's not raising the turn, he's value betting the river on that sized pot, as he would want a call from a Q or a straight. So the river shove is definitely a call. It's more than obvious that he has KK or maybe worst case he has KQc.
Villain has been watching a lot of hungry horse videos about how players will fold to overbets, still calibrating.
If hungry horse was to turn KK into a bluff (which I don’t think he would do here), he would barrel turn. The fact that he checked the turn capped him especially when the flush comes in on the river. I thought maybe a slow played straight but would that ever jam on the river for 6x pot when the spades get there?
He incorrectly put hero on a capped range here
I had the same thought when I saw the small bet on the flop. That strategy also requires that we know our opponent, and don't just assume that good hands are always betting/raising strong hands.
My gut said fold. I couldn't imagine any reg taking this line as a bluff. That being said, I agree that the turn check was the most suspicious part of the line. I was scared that Villain had AA, but the turn check would've screwed him. Overall, nice call by Hero. Didn't let fear get to him.
Why in the world would AA bet tiny flop and then check turn? If afraid of JT, they'd just call river. The line literally can't be any value that was ever even vaguely properly played. It's always either a bluff or an utterly nonsensical spazz line with JT or a backdoor flush.
Be a stupid jam with AA too
@@Jermo484 Because fish play AA very strangely all of the time
@privacyplease64 they're scared of losing with it. They literally never bet small when there's a bunch of draws, check when the board brings in a ton more new draws and then insanely overbet river when half the draws hit.
Well villain 3bet preflop and if he were to have AA that 25 dollar bet on the flop would make some sense, since u flopped the world. I was actually kinda convinced villain had aces and just hoped hero cant have any flushes nor jt and wanted max value.. Would have worked here@@Jermo484
jammed 1300 to win 260. wild.
Every time an opponent moves in on the river, and the caller says ‘he thinks for a minute and then he jams’…. BART always repeats him “HE JAMS?” in a shocked voice, even though he obviously knows the hand details in advance. 😂
Sometimes he doesn't caller don't reveal also he screens these probably a week ahead of time for a minute he doesn't really remember so he is actually surprised
Kennesaw state??
The villain played this hand a special kind of stupid 😂
I swear, some live players get so excited to have a nut flush blocker, they over-bet bluff... but they fail to think about how the action went, and how the betting went.
These players apply certain poker concepts which they've learned online - yet they fail to consider all of the OTHER variables involved!
This villain deserved to get stacked!! Good call, hero.
Hilarious. One of my favourite lines in recent weeks. I even go 5$ on the flop here. It adds another street to the whole hand and makes everything awkward. I love it.
The title might have influenced my thinking, but I was right about what the villain had. I swear when the average low stakes player learns about blockers they go nuts with lines like this that don't make any sense.
That flop raise was just to see if Hero had an Ace or not. With Hero just calling out of position, it's very likely villain thinks he is better off with KK. The Q doesn't change anything as it goes check check, as Hero most likely won't have AQ since he just called the small raise on the flop. He can have QQ, but not betting the turn OOP on a draw heavy board with the straight in there, villain would still think he's better off. But a better way for him to check Hero's strength would have been to bet the turn as well, as he still has the nut flush blocker. And now that he didn't bet, as Bart said, I am never keeping villain on the flush draw anymore. I would be keeping him on Kx on the flop for sure. And the river jam with the flush out there is a very typical semi bluff. Villain knows he's most likely beating all single pairs out there, as most likely Hero doesn't have Aces. From the villains perspective, what could the hero have called the Flop with that doesn't have an Ace. Most likely could be JJs or QQs or a Q high or J high club draw. Only likely combo for the Hero in that case is J10c or QJ or QTc. He obviously hit the Q on the turn but he would still check call the turn in case the villain bet the turn to keep the pot under control and hope to hit the flush/straight on the river, and if he hits the straight on the turn, he's betting anyway. So the 2s on the river is essentially a brick if the villain were to think of it, so his KK is still the best hand and he has the nut blocker. If he had the nut flush, even if he's not raising the turn, he's value betting the river on that sized pot, as he would want a call from a Q or a straight. So the river shove is definitely a call. It's more than obvious that he has KK or maybe worst case he has KQc.
The more interesting question for me is would the hero call with a hand that was worse than a set? Does he call with all or any 2 pairs he arrived here with? What about an AK, or other Ax hands?
I swear I was putting him on KK until the river Jam. Bets small on an A high flop so his hand doesn’t become too faced up by checking it back, and then checks turn… but when he jammed the river I was like “ok never mind” 😂
Yes! The preflop three-bet and small flop bet make sense for KK. The turn check and River jam mystified me. Obviously, people's lines don't always make sense. The only way I put Villain on a flush here is to add hands to his range on the River after he jams, which is a no-no.
Pausing after villian river jam.
I probably fold here getting such terrible odds. But man this feels very fishy.
I think it’s a fold for two reasons
1) when a person makes this type of play we can’t really consider/count out what he has as he’s taking such a weird line
2) we aren’t pot committed and risking a stack in that case is not profitable, as there are straights and flushes that beat us, the only thing i’d think with besides a flush would be JT
3) V may have some small flushes (76 56) as low stakes players tend to c-bet 100% of their range. He bets small on the flop to fold if he gets raised and takes a free card on turn. He can have any flush in that case as played
This analysis completely disregards the preflop action. All of the possible hands you mentioned almost never take the PF line villain did, much less check back the turn.
@@Rwl751i see many recs playing suited connectors as 3bet pre from co or btn. i’d say any hand like 76 or 65 or spades is logical, the flop sizing is screaming that V’s afraid of an ace, and taking a free card on the turn in position to realize the equity is also a common thing in low stakes
@@Rwl751also, if a player isn’t playing a “standard” way postflop, he aint doing it preflop either. I woulndt be suprised if villain even had some garbage like J7 of spades
I thought the 25 dollar bet was weak and fully expected a turn check. With that in mind, I probably lead the turn and bet big because the board is so wet and because the Queen is probably bad for him. Maybe I suck at poker, but I want draws to pay or fold. Checking the turn and allowing a draw to get there and then having too good a hand to fold is not something I want to do to myself.
100% agree. It's dangerous to give free draw cards here and lose to a river. You're way ahead in range, so you bet aggressively.
i was thinking the villian had KJ or J8/J9 configuration. suited spades. typing this before the reveal would be interesting to see the outcome
Good Call, villain gets there with too many bluffs after that turn check.
KK with a spade makes perfect sense with how the villain played it. Afraid of the A on yhe gloo so he bets very small to guage if her has an Ax holding. Although i personally would have C-bet more. Onced called he has to think hero has Ax a high probability of time, so he checks the turn and once the hero leads out on the river for such a small bet villain has yo bluff to win the hand abd he's holding the nut flush blocker so he overbet jams trying yo get Ax to fold. Villain could have won yhe pot if he took a different line on flop and turn, which makes his jam much more credible for holding KJ or K10 of spades.
Snap-call!
The moment you say he jams the spade river after checking back the turn and the baby flop bet, I blurted out KK with Ks. Not AK with Ks because he's value betting flop and turn with those.
❤😂
On the flop: I think he’s going to check back a lot of turns
On the turn: I was surprised that he checked back
Bart, can u go with a 4 color desk?
Thanks, OMC
It had to be a holding with the K of spades in it and KK with the K of spades made the most sense.
KJ and KT of spades barrel turn (and probably don't 3-bet pre vs UTG open) and KQo with K of spades also probably doesn't 3-bet pre against UTG open.
And hand like JT spades will bet turn and smaller flushes on the river would have semibluffed turn and don't shove river over a raise.
Some good points 👍
@@PAlt-p6y 👍👍👍👍
On the river I was immediately thinking overbet to 200 and fold to a raise. We get beat every now and again when called, but we prob almost never get raised as a bluff by overbetting.
The jam is so wild I have to flick it in n honestly no tank just snap that shit in. But I wonder if there is an appropriate amount that villain could have raised that would make a more convincing fold
There is one hand the villian could have that could be played this way and gets the backdoor flush and that hand is 9 10 of spades
Surprisingly Bart didn’t mention that
He does mention it at 12:05
In my experience, typical cash players are afraid of three to a flush on the board if the Ace is not one of those. If the Ace is on the board, they are not nearly as afraid of someone having a King high nut flush.
Would hero call with AK (non-spade) or AQ?
Why not? This line makes no sense for 99 or 88 either, so AK and AQ beat the exact same things as QQ.
I think the one hand might have some sense which is J10 of spades played especially tricky bcs board so locked but not everyone would have 3bet it and it should be bet on turn to get value but i can see sometimes being a check alhtough then jamming it on river without nut spades also kinda doesnt make sense when Hero might have nut flush with like K9s also so it would be kinda suicidal.
Thats exactly what it felt like just a dumb bet with the nut blocker. Really dumb to just throw out that. Could have just called and lost 75
The villain’s raise size on river makes no sense. A raise to $300 or $400 would have accomplished nearly the same and not be so unbalanced. Unless he’s really trying to get folds from sets, straights, and low flushes (JT or T9 spades). If I was villain, I’d have just called the $75 and lost to the set. Price was good. Opponent could have had missed clubs, JJ, TT, etc.. As for hero, I’d have folded as I can’t imagine anyone overbetting that hard in my low stakes games unless they have exactly the nuts or are super drunk.
KJ would make sense for why he led out so small on the flop
I’m at 17:00 wanting to scream KsKx.. only hand that makes any sense.. as bad as it is.. haven’t gotten to reveal yet but that’s my gut
Same thought at the same time.
J 10 spade?
That hand should jam turn, not river. If Hero also has JT (excluding JT Clubs, which probably gets more active on the flop), you are free-rolling for stacks. It should fold out any hands with equity, such as flush draws and sets. And, if Hero calls the jam with a set or draw and rivers you, then you know you will eventually own the Hero's house if you get to play with him long enough.
Nobody considered K9 of spades?
Vulluan firgured. If u had a set you would fold fearing a straight or flush
2:30 it’s like 20% pot.
Why not aa
Because they value bet flop and turn.
“If it was someone I respected.” Calm down there big guy.
12% of the pot?
$25 into 135 is around 20%
I disagree that Villain’s turn check precludes him having a spade flush draw. He wouldn’t always bet the increased turn equity since any A will likely call.
More importantly, There’s a well known principle to sometimes/often check back a nut flush draw so as to not get check raised off of equity …which is certainly possible as the JT straight comes in, or AQ, or QQ or a slow played flopped set.
This can also explain the $25 flop bet… to buy free back door river card, as some folks do. That’s why a Hero turn lead should be strongly considered, as advised.
Yes, Villain’s river sizing might be suspicious if he wanted to get value for a flush… but he can certainly have it.
In this case, Hero has to be right about 80% of the time (1300/1650). If the most likely bluffs contain the Ks, there’s 3 combos KsK and 3 of KsA and 1 KsQ and sometimes KsJ. Say 8 bluffs.
For value, There’s KJs and KTs as well as sometimes K9s, (as well as T9s and even 76s, though these flushes wouldn’t likely jam). Also sometimes So say 8 likely bluffs against say 3 value….its close. But Villain can certainly have a flush.
By definition you never have to be right more than 50% of the time when calling a river bet. Hero is calling 1300 into 2950; he needs to be right 44%.
@@Rahul-eh3rfRight. Good point. 44% and 50% are drastically different over the long run and most players don't realize that. That's where the extra profit is.
JsTs got there but was already there
Fitness motivation - do a push-up every time someone says like.
No idea why he jammed, would have got the same result if he made it 500
No, if he made it 500 it’s always a call. Had to go massive but obviously he didn’t put him on QQ
When I call he turns over JTd :). nhnh
I had him in j10s here, because it's a line I would take in my private game. Basically the immortal nuts unless a river club, I'm not scared to give a free card there and completely mask my holding with a big chance of playing for stacks on most rivers
12%? Really?
There's so many bluffs. To like 2 hands with the king. Clown🎉
These players suck. Both of them
It’s a fold