The Secondary market will continue its decline and new models will become more available at ADs as production increases. I’ve seen this same phenomenon play out in the auto and motorcycle markets over the decades.
Yup, and with every recession/economic head winds peoples priority is paying off debt/keeping a roof over their heads and not indulging luxury goods. Roll on 2009/2001/1991/198.... You get the picture. 😉
I am 40 years old and I have never seen a steel Daytona just sitting in the window... Since basicaly the introduction of the Zenith based automatic one it has been a watch trading over MRSP...
@@vincentschneuwly9783Daytona is just one model. Not sure about that particular model but I’m about the same age and I remember when I was at Uni you could go into an AD and buy a GMT master II right away. I’m sure it was not the only model readily available at the time.
@@shamanprimeI kind of agree with you, all the madness about any steel Rolex model is about to end but I wanted also make a point about "heavy hitter" such as Daytona, Nautilus or Royal Oak for which supply will never ever meet demand, and I am pretty sure the steel GMT is now a premanent member of that club too
That will be happening next year, especially in the UK, many people who have bought Rolex watches will be selling as ALL debts mortgages, PCP, hire purchase car loans will ALL be increo
Wait for the watch you want for the price you want at your AD, and lowball your grey market dealer below what even you think is reasonable. You're going to get a deal sooner or later.
I am pleased to see the market return to something approaching normal, I was offered an Explorer after 6 months, and this was from Rolex in Geneva airport, I live in London. I did offload some of my collection at the height but we are only talking two watches, the core of my Rolex collection is still with me.
I am holding and advise everyone to do the same. It is ridiculous what dealers have done i have NEVER bought over retail and will never do so. All my watches, including my 2 rolexes, were bought at a discount new. Besides there are many other great options.
Excellent video and thoughtful analysis. A few points: (a) What you are calling the "absorption rate" or "turnover" rate is perhaps the most important factor. A decrease in the absorption rate is arguably the most reliable indicator of demand, and a decrease in demand will usually put pressure on prices. Of course, this is Econ 101 and maybe this market is atypical. (b) The market analysis is complicated by two important factors: huge increases in RRP and inflation in the economy generally. Above retail in 2019 is very different from above retail in 2023. (c) Sure it's speculation, but it is entirely feasible that the secondary market prices will drop another 30 in some of the models that benefited from irrational exuberance in the last few years. Others that didn't go so crazy will likely see less crazy drops. You've already shown this in previous videos, and it seems reasonable.
What I struggle with is if your a collector you generally dont buy for profit, its a watch its brought to wear and enjoy, never buy watches for profit buy what you like and can afford
Its all about liquidity, the bottom will be in when central banks start cutting rates and that depends on unemployment numbers. I expect to buy summer/autumn 2024.
Does that absorption rate chart imply demand is actually decent? Given that supply has shot up, 20% is a lower rate but not that far off from before 2022. Not sure how much absorption to expect given supply increase
The grey market bought up so much supply, prices are not going to stabilize until all their excess supply is dumped into the market. Its likely going to take awhile for those sitting on excess inventory to realize their going to take a loss and begin selling to free up some cash. Demand is also going to drop off as all the free money is being removed from the markets by higher interest rates and no future stimulus payments
What I like is that the prices of a 2-3 year old models drop like anchors. Great opportunity for a watch collector to buy great watches at more reasonable prices.
there are more than 1000 daytona ceramic bezel on chrono24... yet the price hasn't fallen.... what happened to econ 101 supply - demand - price curve??
The only thing predictable about rolex market is that it is unpredictable and dependent on external factors. I am sure at the peak before the sudden downturn, the number of watches for sale and time they had been for sale had been very low but boom the drop was sharp and sudden.
Nope, not here in the states at least. Interests rates are still at 8% and change, inflation is still kinda a high, and rent/COLA is very high. Lastly, all the Covid Money is dried up and gone. The secondary market still has a way to go to keep falling. Possibly pre-covid and pre-hype prices again. Just depends on the economy and how bad things will be here in the states. And we still have a recession to worry about get through.
Great analysis, thank you. No mention of the Oyster Perpetual end of the Rolex market. Insights into what has happened there? I don't see prices changing much on those products.
Next episode, please pick a few pieces that buck the trend i.e. either prices did not drop as much or even have risen since the peak in March 2022. These would include a few A Lange & Sohne, a few Cartier and those rare independent brands such as MB&F, FP Journe etc.
It's nice to have some facts instead of "experts" spouting anecdotes. I'm looking for signs outside the watch market for how things might go. For buyers I only see better opportunities to come.
Spot on. Bought my first Rolex last month! Its an Explorer Ref 114270 from 2006. Picked it up for under 6K - about 30% below its high. Honored to own it.
I know I’m over my head here but I need some advise. I wanted to buy a Rolex for my daughter for Christmas 2023. So I looked online at Rolex website. Looked at a Datejust 31MM with jubilee bracelet and white gold bezel …retail 8,400. So I went to Rolex AD, said maybe 2 months. Gave me the Rolex book, told me to look at the book and the Rolex website and call him back when I knew what I needed. I figured what I wanted and then drove to another Rolex AD to see what color dial looked like. This AD told me 6 to 9 months would put me on the list when I knew the color of the dial and did not need a deposit. Okay then I called first AD told what him what I was looking for, he sent a downloaded brochure of what I wanted, told me to look it over and tell me if that was the right watch, mentioned he might need a deposit. This watch is not like the watches you guys have been discussing Subs and Daytona etc. So are deposits something the AD normally ask for? Does it take that long to get a 31MM datejust? Like I said I’m a novice here be kind just trying to figure out what to do next. Thanks.
Gout what do you think a hulk would be priced in 2-3 years from now I am offered one at usd 17700. For one complete I do like thins watch a lot but if it’s gong to reach 10-11 k mark I might as well wait . What do you guys think pls share your advise
Super risky to buy for 2 reasons - 1) The price is certainly set to fall a little more in the short term, so potential for a missed opportunity there. 2) Given its' popularity, there is a good chance Rolex will bring it back in 41mm form (as they have with the rest of the sub lineup). If this happens, the price of the old one will fall further.
@@akapellatoronto let’s give it a ball park figure. I buy a hulk now at 17700 us. In 2 years a new hulk comes in What’s could this old one go for then can I say 15k ?
Nice, I got a call 2 weeks ago from my AD to offer an oysterflex chocolate dial sky dweler but I passed, that would be my sixth Rolex AD purchase in the last 3 years, I will wait for 2024 for my next purchase, I hope to see some 2 tone models available for purchase as a walk in hopefully.
@@allthetime7583 That's how I got my 126613LN last week from WoS, I could have got it same day for a 160 mile 5h round trip or wait 4 days from a internal transfer, I waited because it pleased my SA and helped my spend at my local AD.
Agree. The premiums you see on most Rolex watches on the grey market are “artificially inflated”. Hucksters setting the prices on their WhatsApp chat channels. Amazing, some models have 50-60+ listed and the high “advertised” prices don’t budge. I even sent a fair offer based on current realistic market for a Batgirl…and they declined. 😂
Couple of reasons: 1. Who says they are selling anything at the advertised price. 2. They brought higher, so can't afford the drop or need to suffer the drop yet. It's just the same in the property market, sellers think it's still 2018, buyers think it's now 2008. The more time that goes by the distressed sales will start. Cashflow is key for a business, find a dealer that pretty new and doesn't have deep cash reserves, phone or visit them 5 days before the month end offering cash today...
prices will stop falling on the day when interest is 0 again. If you have lend money for 10 or 20% interest you sell your watch to pay back your debt. I still have a company credit for 1% interest which I pay back, if I change them bank asks for 15% now.
A 30% drop is much more plausible than you stated. Rolex will keep pumping 1 million watches a year, grey market dealers are not buying, there are a lot of pre-owned watches on consumer or flippers' hands waiting on the sidelines, and finally, ads have been hoarding to inventory that eventually will hit the market. Also, the consumer market in China has been weak, see iPhone sales, with the weakest GDP in many years, and Europe is in recession and inflationary pressure. In summary, Demand will be lower than ever before and supply will be higher than ever. This is not a bad thing, scares out the opportunistic flippers and we go back to the hobby enthusiasm.
If you are an AD Rolex dealer and you receive a new Daytona, do you sell it at rrp at a one of customer or you ask your wife to sell it to the grey market ?
Following in my view are steps to stop the decline of prices 1) ADs to do due diligence and get the watches to enthusiasts, collectors and end users rather to flippers. That way there will be less leakages to the secondary inventory 2) Identify and shame the hype generating RUclipsrs 3) Modern Rolexes are NOT collectibles as these are mass produced 4) Producers such as GP, AP, PP, Moser and VC should start publishing proper historical catalogues ( like stamp collectors have) so collectors know which pieces are produced how many Bring brains to the hobby rather just money, hype and flippers
Now that easy money is gone, no one is willing to give hard earned money to buy over retail. Days will come where Rolex’s, AP’s, Pateks will trade bellow retail. Wait and see 😊
the market is self regulating and recovering after what i call the "hustling" era of watch speculating. people should refrain from buying rolex or any other watch regardless of how much they want it in order to draw the price as lowest as possible
Your analysis is strong until you come to future expected declines in prices. I am a practicing economist for the past 20 years for a leading investment manager and I can tell you that the price declines to this part or only phase 1 of the clearing of the market. The second phase is just beginning as retail supply rises to meet authentic consumer demand (non-speculator who will be punished through lack of clearing their own inventories as premiums required to meet their rising costs of doing business in a weakening economic environment). At that point, a new tipping point will be triggered creating a rapid decline in the grey market with prices reaching equilibrium at 10-20% below retail as it has historically. This price path will trace through the vintage market as well as it is linearly related by year of vintage and model.
I agree with this analysis. Rolex is a product of largely marketing and artificial supply constraints akin to Supreme imo. Once 'investors' find their quick flip scheme is turning into bag holding losses, it will be a rapid shift. I hope other watch brands like Grand Seiko can overtake the greedy Rolex brand.
This video is straight-up fire! You're spitting some real knowledge, and I'm all for it. You're a real scholar, and you're doing a great job of making complex concepts accessible to the masses. It's clear that you've got a deep understanding of the subject matter, and you're able to communicate it in a clear and concise way. You're not afraid to express yourself authentically. You're a role model people everywhere, and I'm glad to see you using your platform to educate and empower others. It was so good, I had to leave a review. I'm not one of those fake ass bots, I'm a real person, and I'm telling you, this video is the real deal.
Interesting. I think you can split the aggregated Rolex data in to 4 classes: Hype, High, Standard and marginal. The delta between 'hype' models (Daytona, Hulk, Pepsi, some OP) and 'high demand' models (Sub, OP) is still huge and will likely narrow. I don't see high demand models suffering a huge amount as demand has exceeded supply for a long time. But I think hype models have at least 20% to drop - there is massive dumped inventory to liquidate and it is uncompetitively priced. Fear is keeping people out of that market - get it wrong and you could lose $5-15k easily on a steel watch. 'Standard demand' models (E1/2, DJ) will hold steady. 'Marginal demand' models (SeD, SkD, YM, AK, most precious metal) will likely fall substantially too as there was never much demand for them and they are still at bold prices. Take speculation out of the market, which we will for at least a year and you return to standard enthusiast demand, which for Rolex is fairly well known. And remember, Rolex pumps over a million new watches into this market each year...
Very true, a year from now there will be another 1.2m ish Rolex in world, plus they are looking to up production, but Rolex has the resources to bank over market demand excess production, especially steel, they have done this before in dips.
If someone cannot predict the top, how can you expect that person to be able to pick the bottom. An old adage that rings true: never try to catch a failing knife
Great analysis ; IMO The secondary market has hit saturation ; Rolex makes 1 million watches per year ; there are just plenty out there ; the other day I was at a store he had 30 different Rolexes from different decades so it’s not just the new models. It would be fair if the secondary market prices is equal to the ADs or less if the watch not in great condition. Unless am going for an older model I wouldn’t buy from a secondary store …
The trend is over, quick flips are a thing of the past. Everyones had enough of AD's along with scum bags trying to nick your watch in public. Let's face it, most Rolex are gauche, with only a few that can stand be categorised as design classics. Wait 6 months and buy a Sub or a GMT 2 at RRP and leave it at that.
Nothing you said points to a recovery in prices. In fact the downturn is about to get way worst. It’s simple economics. People need a lot of cash to buy this luxury item. A tsunami of layoffs in high paying jobs is just around the corner. Interest rates for credit is not only extremely high, but tight too. Where is the money going to come from to stabilize the market? Better yet, if it took PPP loans, employee retention credits and stimulus checks to make prices skyrocket where is the next bucket of free money going go come from? Watch flippers are sitting on a lot of inventory and prices will continue to drop. If they are smart they will take whatever they can get before the pool of buyers dry up completely. People are starting to say no to paying a ransom for a watch. I suspect the flippers will be in for a rude awakening when it starts taking 200 days to move an over priced watch. Plus how many watches will Rolex produce for 2024? If it’s a million look out below.
It's not free money, many developed countries did QE in the last 3 years and printed money against future tax receipts, this money has to paid back over decades to come, so the problem is even worse, it's like we've just eaten all the food in the cupboard in one go.
Rolex will continue to fall and once the speculator market disappears, so will demand. Even collectors will stop buying on the secondary market, as the watches become available at the ADs again.
@@number36420 maybe so but it just doesn’t appeal to me like some of the other Rolex watches do and certainly to me not worth the over inflated prices there asking
Rolex is a mass factory made watch. 1 million made a year. Tons of supply. I really don’t see the appeal … Seems to me that the “demand” was based on making money and not about owning one. Greater fool theory.
Dunno why Rolex bothers making some models, somebody somewhere must be buying them, I can understand Rolex doesn't want to over saturate the market with steel sports, but their daft stock allocation system of lumping batches of watches on to ADs has created the whole situation where the ADs will use hot models as leverage to get rid of the dust collectors. The ADs should be able to order directly from the factory what the customer wants, the customer pays the deposit and waits the x months or y years for delivery, it's worked well in the automotive industry for decades now. Therefore consumer demand drives what models are produced.
@@GM-ii8gs I hear you but there is a lot more to it than this. Rolex and ADs do not want to give customers what they want. The luxury business is based on scarcity. Give folks what they want and soon they will No longer want it.
@@marcn8750 This artificial scarcity is really just a marketing tactic - creates a halo around a product (much like a Birkin bag) that draws people to it. All nonsense really, but seems like most luxury watch brands are trying to do this. Also Rolex is currently estimated by Morgan Stanley of making 1.2m watches (but up to 1.5m) - and this is before their 3 new massive production facilities go online. So hardly rare by any means.
During covid I had no where to go and a lot of money to spend - I bought a few watches. Now the economy is bad and I got bills to pay - I do not plan to buy any watch.
I am 100 % certain it will go back to normal condition , it means we go to AD , given discount and treated like a king . Those who love tulips and are on drugs believe otherwise . Would any idiots now buy a black sub at a premium right now ? I am curious lok
I think things will return to a somewhat normal state but I wouldn’t count on discounts. Maybe on slow movers such as some full precious metal watches. The reason Rolex has always held value is because of not discounting!. Unlike Omega where you can buy a like new watch for almost 40 percent off retail almost right away.
@@Odat u must be younger than me. I been doing this hobby for 20 years. Don’t get me wrong, rolex has been desirable , but it doesn’t mean consumers buy them just because they r nice. In the absence of “investment” concept, people just think about it and put such purchase decision on hold unless they get a good deal or there is a special occasion. This is normal market condition. The fear of losing out and the internet hype are just a fad, they come and go. And in 1-2 years time, u will see discount and this is not extreme prediction or rocket science. 2 years ago I said many Rolexes will go back to rrp and available in ADs and people think I am crazy. But I am old enough to know that these people are an important element to this watch game and they appear in this market for a reason - they r the reason why I could get good value in the years ahead (some lost interest and sell cheap, some become bankrupt etc) . Remember this and u will be in the game as long (if not longer) than me 👍🏻
Theres still too many grey market flippers for this to be the bottom. I made some bad purchases last few years paying market rate when i knew this wiuldnbe the end result. As spiteful as this may be I am comforted knowing I am not alone taking pies to the face. God willing I can start to rebuild in '25 after the hype culture has faded for good.
Now seems a good time to sell that piece I am not too crazy about? (Purchased as a relationship builder.) Or just wait it out for long term? Great report as always!
Nope, not even close to the bottom! Yesterday (06/11/2023) in the UK a black dial ceramic Daytona 2018 sold for £18600 including fees. Flipping margins are getting smaller and smaller to the point where someone who has a proper tax paying business wouldn't make any profit at all...
This is why in the UK we're seeing ADs calling in quite some volume on precious and two-tone in the last couple of months. As demand drops on big ticket models, so prices on the grey market drop, flippers margins are squeezed or are gone completely so instead of watches going out the ADs back door they have to go out the front door, so ADs have to brush up their customer service skills and actually attempt to sell something. But they have to move quickly to find the last of the mugs that are happy to pay RRP as the prices continue to drop week on week on the grey market and the ADs need to release the working capital out of the big ticket models before they are left holding this stock over the long term because either the capital allocation is too high for the market to bare or before they have to sacrifice margin to bring the prices more in line with the grey market price. So in a rush ADs dump stock into the market which in turn further softens grey prices as the market attempt to absorb the stock against a limit demand because of that high capital allocation or deferred spend due to price decreases. In short, worse case scenario, nobody (ADs, Grey or non true collector end users) wants to be holding these depreciating assets.
It’s funny. There are quite a few of us out there who would buy several Rolex models at once if they were available at RRP and forgo stuff like the warranty card for a time. Makes them not as much of a flip risk for the AD. But of course there aren’t. I’d pick up a White Gold GMT, a steel Daytona, and two steel subs. But I won’t pay over RRP
Watch speculators killed all joy from watches. Of course it’s free market, do what you want with your money. I chose not to participate in the hype and suffer the indignity at AD.
Nobody can prognosticate where prices will be in the future. However, the decline in Rolex and the luxury watch market as a whole does correlate with the rise of interest rates in the US by the Federal Reserve. Two soft variables (meaning there is no direct correlation) is the impact on the worldwide economy as wars breakout across the globe. There are now 2 active war zones, so if another war zone opened up, the fear factor would put a damper on consumers buying luxury watches worldwide. The second soft factor is the Rolex buying experience at the AD causing many customers to avoid going into an AD just to be disappointed. If I interpret your graph, the trend to the bottom has a long ways to go, and collector patience to wait for prices to continue to recede may turn out to our benefit in due time. Unless of course, free money from the government returns...
Rolex prices skyrocketed due to 3 facts which many deny 1) AD ( most of them ) is main reason for creation of flippers (come on due you believe that fippers are buying from the AD and re selling it than again buying it again so in one year they are buying some models from Rolex 3 to 5 times and why the AD is allowing it you guess why ? 2) Flippers knows very well that 10000 $ watch to be flipped for 30000 to 50000 is easy as people with black money can’t move their money so for them is to buy 10,000 $ watch to more than 30000 $ is not a problem even if they sell it again for 2 to 3 thousand dollars loss 3) Rolex also knows about this and keeping a blind eye The bottom line the real people who really wants to but the Rolex and wants to keep it at least for 5 years is almost zero
No need to look any further, who creates the flipper market ? Rolex by itself. Rolex Ads are creating this environment that they are pushing new customers to buy another model around $5k lever before buying a submariner at $10k level. So the total cost comes down to $15-16k. Where’s the flipper market for the same submariner? Wow by a huge coincidence same price. They sell it to only old customers that why same people over and over again getting the nice watches. It’s a vicious cycle
The problem with buying Rolex on secondary market is you can never be sure if you got a real or fake or frankie, since Rolex have majority(all?) of their watches with covered back and the fakes nowadays are insanely good. This is why I only buy from AD and if they tell me to screw off, I will do just that. No rush And to answer the questions is it now the time to buy, the answer is hell no. Wait for interest rate to go below 3% and bitcoin above 50k, only then start looking
@@breakdownshakedown71 not on purpose, but look at how those “well established” dealers operates, it’s just some dude looking at the watch going yep it’s real…can easily miss something as they deal with hundreds of watches a day. And it’s not like you getting a good deal taking the risk, you actually paying over retail. So no thanks
I just bought a new Everest 3 Watch Roll just for the Rolex bubble to bust thanks all you fools that drink the Kool Aid I will be happy to buy your Black Dial Steel Daytona at retail.Sorry about your 20k hit lmfao
Just found this and I’m happy I did. Similar sites I watched over the past few years were clearly skewed towards those that had “invested” in the market. Their outlook was on the optimistic side and not the kind of objective analysis that you provide. As for the market outlook; I sold watches for awhile at a Tourneau store, and at that time, except for SS Daytona (which had just been released) our Rolexes sold for retail and nothing was especially difficult to get. If it was a precious metal model, gold or platinum, you could even get a 5% discount. But here’s my thought; used Rolexes were clearly cheaper, even those that were relatively new. So if a GMT was new for $5000, you could buy a used one closer to $4000, which I did immediately after quitting my job at Tourneau. (There were no hard feelings, as I had found a job in my real field of expertise. Plus that location had a good manager and asst manager, and an excellent vintage manager). So for me, I think, I hope, we might return to what I experienced back then, when Rolexes were readily available, sold for retail, and pre-owned were sold at a fair discount. Sorry this was so long!
The Secondary market will continue its decline and new models will become more available at ADs as production increases. I’ve seen this same phenomenon play out in the auto and motorcycle markets over the decades.
Yup, and with every recession/economic head winds peoples priority is paying off debt/keeping a roof over their heads and not indulging luxury goods. Roll on 2009/2001/1991/198.... You get the picture. 😉
Best channel with real data, no fluff. Keep up the good work
Normal is when you can walk into an AD AND buy a Rolex at a discount 😂.
I am 40 years old and I have never seen a steel Daytona just sitting in the window... Since basicaly the introduction of the Zenith based automatic one it has been a watch trading over MRSP...
@@vincentschneuwly9783Daytona is just one model. Not sure about that particular model but I’m about the same age and I remember when I was at Uni you could go into an AD and buy a GMT master II right away. I’m sure it was not the only model readily available at the time.
@@shamanprimeI kind of agree with you, all the madness about any steel Rolex model is about to end but I wanted also make a point about "heavy hitter" such as Daytona, Nautilus or Royal Oak for which supply will never ever meet demand, and I am pretty sure the steel GMT is now a premanent member of that club too
That will be happening next year, especially in the UK, many people who have bought Rolex watches will be selling as ALL debts mortgages, PCP, hire purchase car loans will ALL be increo
@@mortgagemartin3987wishful thinking IMO
Wait for the watch you want for the price you want at your AD, and lowball your grey market dealer below what even you think is reasonable. You're going to get a deal sooner or later.
Lol good advice! Beg for the Daytona you will never get! 👍🏻
Honesty about things is so rare these days. Great info 🙌
I am pleased to see the market return to something approaching normal, I was offered an Explorer after 6 months, and this was from Rolex in Geneva airport, I live in London. I did offload some of my collection at the height but we are only talking two watches, the core of my Rolex collection is still with me.
Luck indeed, Geneva Airport is know to be very sniffy about selling to non Swiss nationals.
I am holding and advise everyone to do the same. It is ridiculous what dealers have done i have NEVER bought over retail and will never do so. All my watches, including my 2 rolexes, were bought at a discount new. Besides there are many other great options.
Excellent video and thoughtful analysis. A few points: (a) What you are calling the "absorption rate" or "turnover" rate is perhaps the most important factor. A decrease in the absorption rate is arguably the most reliable indicator of demand, and a decrease in demand will usually put pressure on prices. Of course, this is Econ 101 and maybe this market is atypical. (b) The market analysis is complicated by two important factors: huge increases in RRP and inflation in the economy generally. Above retail in 2019 is very different from above retail in 2023. (c) Sure it's speculation, but it is entirely feasible that the secondary market prices will drop another 30 in some of the models that benefited from irrational exuberance in the last few years. Others that didn't go so crazy will likely see less crazy drops. You've already shown this in previous videos, and it seems reasonable.
If we do a tech analysis of the chart like they do in stock market,,what does it tell us? Will it reach the pre covid levels?
What I struggle with is if your a collector you generally dont buy for profit, its a watch its brought to wear and enjoy, never buy watches for profit buy what you like and can afford
I would be very interested in the same analyze in a little lower price range. Omega, Yesss !
Breitling..sure..and maby...IWC..?
Thanks!
Its all about liquidity, the bottom will be in when central banks start cutting rates and that depends on unemployment numbers. I expect to buy summer/autumn 2024.
We have further to drop a lot fitter for many watches, I believe next year AD will be selling basic watches like the date just under retail
nice. I always wondered about the age of inventory! thanks for sharing.
Does that absorption rate chart imply demand is actually decent? Given that supply has shot up, 20% is a lower rate but not that far off from before 2022. Not sure how much absorption to expect given supply increase
The grey market bought up so much supply, prices are not going to stabilize until all their excess supply is dumped into the market. Its likely going to take awhile for those sitting on excess inventory to realize their going to take a loss and begin selling to free up some cash. Demand is also going to drop off as all the free money is being removed from the markets by higher interest rates and no future stimulus payments
What I like is that the prices of a 2-3 year old models drop like anchors. Great opportunity for a watch collector to buy great watches at more reasonable prices.
there are more than 1000 daytona ceramic bezel on chrono24... yet the price hasn't fallen.... what happened to econ 101 supply - demand - price curve??
As long as there are AD's that are silent
partners of grey market flippers we will not see the bottom of this madness.
The only thing predictable about rolex market is that it is unpredictable and dependent on external factors. I am sure at the peak before the sudden downturn, the number of watches for sale and time they had been for sale had been very low but boom the drop was sharp and sudden.
Nope, not here in the states at least. Interests rates are still at 8% and change, inflation is still kinda a high, and rent/COLA is very high. Lastly, all the Covid Money is dried up and gone. The secondary market still has a way to go to keep falling. Possibly pre-covid and pre-hype prices again. Just depends on the economy and how bad things will be here in the states. And we still have a recession to worry about get through.
It would just be nice to walk into a AD and be treated like a customer 😂
Great analysis, thank you. No mention of the Oyster Perpetual end of the Rolex market. Insights into what has happened there? I don't see prices changing much on those products.
Next episode, please pick a few pieces that buck the trend i.e. either prices did not drop as much or even have risen since the peak in March 2022. These would include a few A Lange & Sohne, a few Cartier and those rare independent brands such as MB&F, FP Journe etc.
There wouldn't be enough data for these brands to be significant enough to analyze.
It's nice to have some facts instead of "experts" spouting anecdotes. I'm looking for signs outside the watch market for how things might go. For buyers I only see better opportunities to come.
ADs are starting to feel it. Kinda what they get
Spot on. Bought my first Rolex last month! Its an Explorer Ref 114270 from 2006. Picked it up for under 6K - about 30% below its high. Honored to own it.
Not bad, but you see, that same watch you could buy it for 3-4K about 5-10 years ago...
I would, but my time machine is broken. @@ThePianoTester
I know I’m over my head here but I need some advise. I wanted to buy a Rolex for my daughter for Christmas 2023. So I looked online at Rolex website. Looked at a Datejust 31MM with jubilee bracelet and white gold bezel …retail 8,400. So I went to Rolex AD, said maybe 2 months. Gave me the Rolex book, told me to look at the book and the Rolex website and call him back when I knew what I needed. I figured what I wanted and then drove to another Rolex AD to see what color dial looked like. This AD told me 6 to 9 months would put me on the list when I knew the color of the dial and did not need a deposit. Okay then I called first AD told what him what I was looking for, he sent a downloaded brochure of what I wanted, told me to look it over and tell me if that was the right watch, mentioned he might need a deposit. This watch is not like the watches you guys have been discussing Subs and Daytona etc. So are deposits something the AD normally ask for? Does it take that long to get a 31MM datejust? Like I said I’m a novice here be kind just trying to figure out what to do next. Thanks.
Gout what do you think a hulk would be priced in 2-3 years from now
I am offered one at usd 17700. For one complete
I do like thins watch a lot but if it’s gong to reach 10-11 k mark I might as well wait .
What do you guys think pls share your advise
Wait, things are going to get worse in the world before it gets better.
Super risky to buy for 2 reasons - 1) The price is certainly set to fall a little more in the short term, so potential for a missed opportunity there. 2) Given its' popularity, there is a good chance Rolex will bring it back in 41mm form (as they have with the rest of the sub lineup). If this happens, the price of the old one will fall further.
@@akapellatoronto let’s give it a ball park figure. I buy a hulk now at 17700 us. In 2 years a new hulk comes in
What’s could this old one go for then can I say 15k ?
Prices will keep falling nothing will keep prices up
I'm not worried one bit I'll just wear my omega
Nice, I got a call 2 weeks ago from my AD to offer an oysterflex chocolate dial sky dweler but I passed, that would be my sixth Rolex AD purchase in the last 3 years, I will wait for 2024 for my next purchase, I hope to see some 2 tone models available for purchase as a walk in hopefully.
Across most ADs in the UK now a two tone sub is a walking or at worse less than 7 days wait if the watch needs shipping between multi door ADs.
@@GM-ii8gs😂🤡🤣
@@allthetime7583 That's how I got my 126613LN last week from WoS, I could have got it same day for a 160 mile 5h round trip or wait 4 days from a internal transfer, I waited because it pleased my SA and helped my spend at my local AD.
Rarity = Premium but there are so many pre owned Rolexes in the market for sales. Still trying to understand why the premium on some of the models.
Agree. The premiums you see on most Rolex watches on the grey market are “artificially inflated”. Hucksters setting the prices on their WhatsApp chat channels. Amazing, some models have 50-60+ listed and the high “advertised” prices don’t budge. I even sent a fair offer based on current realistic market for a Batgirl…and they declined. 😂
Couple of reasons:
1. Who says they are selling anything at the advertised price.
2. They brought higher, so can't afford the drop or need to suffer the drop yet.
It's just the same in the property market, sellers think it's still 2018, buyers think it's now 2008. The more time that goes by the distressed sales will start. Cashflow is key for a business, find a dealer that pretty new and doesn't have deep cash reserves, phone or visit them 5 days before the month end offering cash today...
Convenient to Rolex to blame macro issues but truth is the brand is no longer aspirational for its traditional customer, it’s falling below RRP
Gray 20% below retail feb 2024
prices will stop falling on the day when interest is 0 again. If you have lend money for 10 or 20% interest you sell your watch to pay back your debt. I still have a company credit for 1% interest which I pay back, if I change them bank asks for 15% now.
A 30% drop is much more plausible than you stated. Rolex will keep pumping 1 million watches a year, grey market dealers are not buying, there are a lot of pre-owned watches on consumer or flippers' hands waiting on the sidelines, and finally, ads have been hoarding to inventory that eventually will hit the market. Also, the consumer market in China has been weak, see iPhone sales, with the weakest GDP in many years, and Europe is in recession and inflationary pressure. In summary, Demand will be lower than ever before and supply will be higher than ever. This is not a bad thing, scares out the opportunistic flippers and we go back to the hobby enthusiasm.
Excellent analysis, many thanks for this. Certainly sounds very plausible.
Another interesting take on the Rolex market.
If you are an AD Rolex dealer and you receive a new Daytona, do you sell it at rrp at a one of customer or you ask your wife to sell it to the grey market ?
Watches are not investments.
Following in my view are steps to stop the decline of prices
1) ADs to do due diligence and get the watches to enthusiasts, collectors and end users rather to flippers. That way there will be less leakages to the secondary inventory
2) Identify and shame the hype generating RUclipsrs
3) Modern Rolexes are NOT collectibles as these are mass produced
4) Producers such as GP, AP, PP, Moser and VC should start publishing proper historical catalogues ( like stamp collectors have) so collectors know which pieces are produced how many
Bring brains to the hobby rather just money, hype and flippers
Now that easy money is gone, no one is willing to give hard earned money to buy over retail. Days will come where Rolex’s, AP’s, Pateks will trade bellow retail. Wait and see 😊
the market is self regulating and recovering after what i call the "hustling" era of watch speculating. people should refrain from buying rolex or any other watch regardless of how much they want it in order to draw the price as lowest as possible
Your analysis is strong until you come to future expected declines in prices. I am a practicing economist for the past 20 years for a leading investment manager and I can tell you that the price declines to this part or only phase 1 of the clearing of the market. The second phase is just beginning as retail supply rises to meet authentic consumer demand (non-speculator who will be punished through lack of clearing their own inventories as premiums required to meet their rising costs of doing business in a weakening economic environment). At that point, a new tipping point will be triggered creating a rapid decline in the grey market with prices reaching equilibrium at 10-20% below retail as it has historically. This price path will trace through the vintage market as well as it is linearly related by year of vintage and model.
the grays can only hold on for so long, I’ll wait another year I think before diving in , thanks for oh r the astute advice mate 😊
I agree with this analysis. Rolex is a product of largely marketing and artificial supply constraints akin to Supreme imo. Once 'investors' find their quick flip scheme is turning into bag holding losses, it will be a rapid shift. I hope other watch brands like Grand Seiko can overtake the greedy Rolex brand.
No crystal ball but I’m comfortable with some prices
Good video. Thank you.
Don't buy over MSRP, that is the true bottom!
This video is straight-up fire! You're spitting some real knowledge, and I'm all for it. You're a real scholar, and you're doing a great job of making complex concepts accessible to the masses. It's clear that you've got a deep understanding of the subject matter, and you're able to communicate it in a clear and concise way. You're not afraid to express yourself authentically. You're a role model people everywhere, and I'm glad to see you using your platform to educate and empower others. It was so good, I had to leave a review. I'm not one of those fake ass bots, I'm a real person, and I'm telling you, this video is the real deal.
This sounds exactly like a copy-paste bot response to me lol
of course not, all pasted by an actual human from earth planet @@quangtranngoc4351
When the secondary market is 30-40% below retail. IMO
When will it stop? If money stays at 8% were going into a recession. So it will not stop.
Great analysis
Interesting. I think you can split the aggregated Rolex data in to 4 classes: Hype, High, Standard and marginal. The delta between 'hype' models (Daytona, Hulk, Pepsi, some OP) and 'high demand' models (Sub, OP) is still huge and will likely narrow. I don't see high demand models suffering a huge amount as demand has exceeded supply for a long time. But I think hype models have at least 20% to drop - there is massive dumped inventory to liquidate and it is uncompetitively priced. Fear is keeping people out of that market - get it wrong and you could lose $5-15k easily on a steel watch. 'Standard demand' models (E1/2, DJ) will hold steady. 'Marginal demand' models (SeD, SkD, YM, AK, most precious metal) will likely fall substantially too as there was never much demand for them and they are still at bold prices. Take speculation out of the market, which we will for at least a year and you return to standard enthusiast demand, which for Rolex is fairly well known. And remember, Rolex pumps over a million new watches into this market each year...
Very true, a year from now there will be another 1.2m ish Rolex in world, plus they are looking to up production, but Rolex has the resources to bank over market demand excess production, especially steel, they have done this before in dips.
Panda Daytona was up to $50k and can now be had for ~$30k. Hype pieces definitely have suffered
@@roycedotthat’s still double the RRP 😂. Ridiculous
Nice Job! Well done!
If someone cannot predict the top, how can you expect that person to be able to pick the bottom. An old adage that rings true: never try to catch a failing knife
Of course
Great analysis ; IMO The secondary market has hit saturation ; Rolex makes 1 million watches per year ; there are just plenty out there ; the other day I was at a store he had 30 different Rolexes from different decades so it’s not just the new models. It would be fair if the secondary market prices is equal to the ADs or less if the watch not in great condition. Unless am going for an older model I wouldn’t buy from a secondary store …
The trend is over, quick flips are a thing of the past. Everyones had enough of AD's along with scum bags trying to nick your watch in public. Let's face it, most Rolex are gauche, with only a few that can stand be categorised as design classics. Wait 6 months and buy a Sub or a GMT 2 at RRP and leave it at that.
Interesting that with free gov money instead of paying off debts, folks bought into luxury speculative products.
Nothing you said points to a recovery in prices. In fact the downturn is about to get way worst. It’s simple economics. People need a lot of cash to buy this luxury item. A tsunami of layoffs in high paying jobs is just around the corner. Interest rates for credit is not only extremely high, but tight too. Where is the money going to come from to stabilize the market? Better yet, if it took PPP loans, employee retention credits and stimulus checks to make prices skyrocket where is the next bucket of free money going go come from? Watch flippers are sitting on a lot of inventory and prices will continue to drop. If they are smart they will take whatever they can get before the pool of buyers dry up completely. People are starting to say no to paying a ransom for a watch. I suspect the flippers will be in for a rude awakening when it starts taking 200 days to move an over priced watch. Plus how many watches will Rolex produce for 2024? If it’s a million look out below.
It's not free money, many developed countries did QE in the last 3 years and printed money against future tax receipts, this money has to paid back over decades to come, so the problem is even worse, it's like we've just eaten all the food in the cupboard in one go.
Retail price doesnt mean anything. The ROI over 3 years is the important vector
Perfect for me will be when I can get a no date sub or an explorer 40 at retail price new, i buy it, then prices go up 😂
Rolex will continue to fall and once the speculator market disappears, so will demand. Even collectors will stop buying on the secondary market, as the watches become available at the ADs again.
So in other words, the graphs depict a bubble behavior, that bursted. Yeah 🎉
When the average Joe can't make their mortgage payments they'll have to sell their Rolex to make ends meets.
I think the market has bottomed out mostly.
Keep going rolex! It is a boring line! People have found out about Rolex and its behavior. Another 50% would be right!
We haven’t even entered the recession yet? Why would prices of baubles bottom before job losses tick up?
Depends on which country your in, you haven't said, for example Germany is already in recession.
when everyone stops watching videos about rolex prices you will be at the bottom
Im so glad I don’t like Daytonas they do nothing for me
Stainless Daytona is a legendary Watch. Super comfortable, perfect size. Great and reliable movement. Really is a great watch minus the hype
@@number36420 maybe so but it just doesn’t appeal to me like some of the other Rolex watches do and certainly to me not worth the over inflated prices there asking
Rolex is a mass factory made watch. 1 million made a year. Tons of supply.
I really don’t see the appeal …
Seems to me that the “demand” was based on making money and not about owning one. Greater fool theory.
Yes but not 1 million of models that people actually want.
Dunno why Rolex bothers making some models, somebody somewhere must be buying them, I can understand Rolex doesn't want to over saturate the market with steel sports, but their daft stock allocation system of lumping batches of watches on to ADs has created the whole situation where the ADs will use hot models as leverage to get rid of the dust collectors.
The ADs should be able to order directly from the factory what the customer wants, the customer pays the deposit and waits the x months or y years for delivery, it's worked well in the automotive industry for decades now. Therefore consumer demand drives what models are produced.
@@GM-ii8gs I hear you but there is a lot more to it than this. Rolex and ADs do not want to give customers what they want.
The luxury business is based on scarcity. Give folks what they want and soon they will
No longer want it.
@@marcn8750 This artificial scarcity is really just a marketing tactic - creates a halo around a product (much like a Birkin bag) that draws people to it. All nonsense really, but seems like most luxury watch brands are trying to do this. Also Rolex is currently estimated by Morgan Stanley of making 1.2m watches (but up to 1.5m) - and this is before their 3 new massive production facilities go online. So hardly rare by any means.
During covid I had no where to go and a lot of money to spend - I bought a few watches. Now the economy is bad and I got bills to pay - I do not plan to buy any watch.
You and loads of folks did this.
It’s in free fall no one’s paying stupid asking prices it’s below retail only
I am 100 % certain it will go back to normal condition , it means we go to AD , given discount and treated like a king . Those who love tulips and are on drugs believe otherwise . Would any idiots now buy a black sub at a premium right now ? I am curious lok
I think things will return to a somewhat normal state but I wouldn’t count on discounts. Maybe on slow movers such as some full precious metal watches. The reason Rolex has always held value is because of not discounting!. Unlike Omega where you can buy a like new watch for almost 40 percent off retail almost right away.
@@Odat u must be younger than me. I been doing this hobby for 20 years. Don’t get me wrong, rolex has been desirable , but it doesn’t mean consumers buy them just because they r nice. In the absence of “investment” concept, people just think about it and put such purchase decision on hold unless they get a good deal or there is a special occasion. This is normal market condition. The fear of losing out and the internet hype are just a fad, they come and go. And in 1-2 years time, u will see discount and this is not extreme prediction or rocket science. 2 years ago I said many Rolexes will go back to rrp and available in ADs and people think I am crazy. But I am old enough to know that these people are an important element to this watch game and they appear in this market for a reason - they r the reason why I could get good value in the years ahead (some lost interest and sell cheap, some become bankrupt etc) . Remember this and u will be in the game as long (if not longer) than me 👍🏻
Theres still too many grey market flippers for this to be the bottom. I made some bad purchases last few years paying market rate when i knew this wiuldnbe the end result. As spiteful as this may be I am comforted knowing I am not alone taking pies to the face. God willing I can start to rebuild in '25 after the hype culture has faded for good.
The rock bottom will be resell value 50% Below Retail price
It’s all over. The watch market is dead.
Nooooooooo not the bottom
Now seems a good time to sell that piece I am not too crazy about? (Purchased as a relationship builder.) Or just wait it out for long term? Great report as always!
You can definitely wait a bit, so that it would be harder to sell it later. Unless you wait for many many years.
Nope, not even close to the bottom! Yesterday (06/11/2023) in the UK a black dial ceramic Daytona 2018 sold for £18600 including fees. Flipping margins are getting smaller and smaller to the point where someone who has a proper tax paying business wouldn't make any profit at all...
This is why in the UK we're seeing ADs calling in quite some volume on precious and two-tone in the last couple of months.
As demand drops on big ticket models, so prices on the grey market drop, flippers margins are squeezed or are gone completely so instead of watches going out the ADs back door they have to go out the front door, so ADs have to brush up their customer service skills and actually attempt to sell something.
But they have to move quickly to find the last of the mugs that are happy to pay RRP as the prices continue to drop week on week on the grey market and the ADs need to release the working capital out of the big ticket models before they are left holding this stock over the long term because either the capital allocation is too high for the market to bare or before they have to sacrifice margin to bring the prices more in line with the grey market price.
So in a rush ADs dump stock into the market which in turn further softens grey prices as the market attempt to absorb the stock against a limit demand because of that high capital allocation or deferred spend due to price decreases. In short, worse case scenario, nobody (ADs, Grey or non true collector end users) wants to be holding these depreciating assets.
Never pay over msrp
Period
It’s funny. There are quite a few of us out there who would buy several Rolex models at once if they were available at RRP and forgo stuff like the warranty card for a time. Makes them not as much of a flip risk for the AD.
But of course there aren’t. I’d pick up a White Gold GMT, a steel Daytona, and two steel subs. But I won’t pay over RRP
Watch speculators killed all joy from watches. Of course it’s free market, do what you want with your money. I chose not to participate in the hype and suffer the indignity at AD.
Nobody can prognosticate where prices will be in the future. However, the decline in Rolex and the luxury watch market as a whole does correlate with the rise of interest rates in the US by the Federal Reserve. Two soft variables (meaning there is no direct correlation) is the impact on the worldwide economy as wars breakout across the globe. There are now 2 active war zones, so if another war zone opened up, the fear factor would put a damper on consumers buying luxury watches worldwide. The second soft factor is the Rolex buying experience at the AD causing many customers to avoid going into an AD just to be disappointed. If I interpret your graph, the trend to the bottom has a long ways to go, and collector patience to wait for prices to continue to recede may turn out to our benefit in due time. Unless of course, free money from the government returns...
whe people start to realize that its all a scheme😂😂
Rolex prices skyrocketed due to 3 facts which many deny
1) AD ( most of them ) is main reason for creation of flippers (come on due you believe that fippers are buying from the AD and re selling it than again buying it again so in one year they are buying some models from Rolex 3 to 5 times and why the AD is allowing it you guess why ?
2) Flippers knows very well that 10000 $ watch to be flipped for 30000 to 50000 is easy as people with black money can’t move their money so for them is to buy 10,000 $ watch to more than 30000 $ is not a problem even if they sell it again for 2 to 3 thousand dollars loss
3) Rolex also knows about this and keeping a blind eye
The bottom line the real people who really wants to but the Rolex and wants to keep it at least for 5 years is almost zero
Of course prices will drop. The recession will kick in next year 2024.
BLUF - bottom line up front pls!
No need to look any further, who creates the flipper market ? Rolex by itself.
Rolex Ads are creating this environment that they are pushing new customers to buy another model around $5k lever before buying a submariner at $10k level. So the total cost comes down to $15-16k. Where’s the flipper market for the same submariner? Wow by a huge coincidence same price. They sell it to only old customers that why same people over and over again getting the nice watches. It’s a vicious cycle
The problem with buying Rolex on secondary market is you can never be sure if you got a real or fake or frankie, since Rolex have majority(all?) of their watches with covered back and the fakes nowadays are insanely good. This is why I only buy from AD and if they tell me to screw off, I will do just that. No rush
And to answer the questions is it now the time to buy, the answer is hell no. Wait for interest rate to go below 3% and bitcoin above 50k, only then start looking
So you think a well established grey market dealer is going to risk selling fake watches????😂😂
@@breakdownshakedown71 He thinks it's 1988. What a dummy
Once Bitcoin pumps, so will the watch prices.
@@astonstiglitz 100%
@@breakdownshakedown71 not on purpose, but look at how those “well established” dealers operates, it’s just some dude looking at the watch going yep it’s real…can easily miss something as they deal with hundreds of watches a day. And it’s not like you getting a good deal taking the risk, you actually paying over retail. So no thanks
Rolex's will fall much more than 30%
This is a fabricated market just buy from an authorized dealer.
I just bought a new Everest 3 Watch Roll just for the Rolex bubble to bust thanks all you fools that drink the Kool Aid I will be happy to buy your Black Dial Steel Daytona at retail.Sorry about your 20k hit lmfao
Just found this and I’m happy I did. Similar sites I watched over the past few years were clearly skewed towards those that had “invested” in the market. Their outlook was on the optimistic side and not the kind of objective analysis that you provide.
As for the market outlook; I sold watches for awhile at a Tourneau store, and at that time, except for SS Daytona (which had just been released) our Rolexes sold for retail and nothing was especially difficult to get. If it was a precious metal model, gold or platinum, you could even get a 5% discount. But here’s my thought; used Rolexes were clearly cheaper, even those that were relatively new. So if a GMT was new for $5000, you could buy a used one closer to $4000, which I did immediately after quitting my job at Tourneau. (There were no hard feelings, as I had found a job in my real field of expertise. Plus that location had a good manager and asst manager, and an excellent vintage manager). So for me, I think, I hope, we might return to what I experienced back then, when Rolexes were readily available, sold for retail, and pre-owned were sold at a fair discount.
Sorry this was so long!
Crash baby crash!!
I got a Rolex replica and saved thousands and it looks and feels like the real deal.
Cool but you know it’s not. You’re a fake 😂
Rolex is trash.
Rather get ap, pp, or vc for the price