Watch Charts answered the question using data --watches are NOT investments! During the irrational exuberance during the Pandemic, flippers were able to repeatedly buy and make profit on watches. The rare few who could buy a Rolex at an AD and made a quick profit drove up prices. Then business magazines started telling everyone that watches are an asset class to add to the hype. Do not confuse investing with flipping! The stat showing how the S&P 500 Index clobbered any watch appreciation clearly shows you should never confuse watches with investments!
Again, great analysis...I would add that the enjoyment of wearing the watch attracts many ... You buy something you like, you use it for 10 years..., and if you chose well, sell it above your cost...few assets gives you that particularity... a house for example...
I feel my watches as not so much a monetary investment, but a quality lifestyle investment that may retain a lot value (when you buy pre-owned watches suitable for your financial situation). Watches are some things that you can appreciate on your wrist that might even appreciate in price, especially my older Rolexes, Omegas, etc.. Today I drive a pre-owned 5+ year old Camry and a Sienna van rather than a new Lexus IS (like I did when I was much younger). My Lexus sold for less than 20% of its original cost and costs thousands of dollars MORE in gas and repairs. That I don’t think was a very good investment. It's all relative. 😃
Amazing insights backed up by hard data. So glad that somebody finally shattered this concept that watches are this incredible investment vehicle to deliver outstanding returns. We were living through an everything bubble that was inflated by artificially low interest rates for many, many years. Once the cheap money dried up it revealed just how much of an illusion the watch community had bought into of watches being investments.
My view of the subject is that watches are for For fun and make you elegant and appreciate the work that happened to it and of course if you can save your money in it,, it is enough for me I don't care that it rises but the most important thing is to be a parking for money and in Fun way
A lot of parallels to the luxury car market here. 99% will lose value and its unlikely people will really know what takes off in price over the decades. Watches and cars are things we enjoy but not good investments.
Excellent synopsis - 100% correct- There's a beginning, middle and end to everything within reason. The flipping days for quick buck are gone, the party couldn't continue on!
Very FEW watches increase or have increased in value to be inflation proof. I have about $40K worth of watches and NOT one single one would have been an INVESTMENT if I had bought them new from AD's - Patek, Breitling, Cartier, Tag, Zenith, Grand Seiko. I bought them used in superb condition with original boxes and papers, most at 1/2 price from new. Be warned if you think your Patek will increase in value!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Crucially a sale of a watch on the secondary market may be lacking in taxation. Whereas a sale of a s+p500 shareholding is a tax event 100% of the time. This effects net profit in reality
I started collecting watches as family heirlooms to pass on to my children and grandchildren. Getting to wear them and enjoy them before I hand them to their eventual owners is a big bonus! 😉
Thank you for this video … it proves watches are not investments… I wish someone will do a video comparing Hermes Birkin with S&P500 … which Hermes continues to claim Birkin is a better “investment “ ….
Terrific video - clear, level-headed and devoid of the usual Watch RUclips - and indeed general RUclips - silliness. I think a big problem with treating watches like more conventional investment assets is the lack of the long-term data showing ups and downs in price which indicate that something is at least potentially an investment asset - watch prices, even for Rolex, were basically as flat as a pancake before 2019, and then Covid-onomics hit. So we simply don’t know if watches are going to behave as an investment asset going forward; indeed, it’s quite possible that the last 4 years are simply an anomaly. That’s obviously not the case for equities where the last century at least tells us that prices move. The closest thing to watches as investment assets is collectibles like baseball cards and comic books and, when you realize that we have more data on how these perform over the long run than we do for watches, then you should be even LESS inclined to believe that watches are worth investing in, and certainly not as a viable alternative to simply parking your cash in an S&P 500 (or whatever index) ETF!
While your statement is correct, it is not relevant to this example since the comparison of $31,000 for the Rolex 1675 vs. $128,000 for the S&P 500 are both in today's money. So the comparison is still apples to apples.
@@WatchCharts Yes, you are correct, I just checked : if you invested 795$ in 1978 on S&P stocks, you’ll get 128.000$ in 2023. Way more than the 31.000$ you get from the watch
You don't give money to a company when you buy stock. You buy them on a secondary exchange. They only time you give money to a company for stock is in the case of dilution
Great video. Yeah the greater-fool theory is basically speculation hoping another fool will pay more. It should not even be called investing. As you rightly pointed out, an investment produces returns and doesn’t rely on just the trading of the item.
@@BobbyDazzler888 i'm subbed to his channel and got a new video alert. Why am i subbed to a watch market channel? Because i find it interesting to see which brands hold value and which doesn't, even if i myself have no plans on selling my watches. Is that such a bad thing?
Investment: No. Asset: Yes. The death of the watch flippers have proven this. Especially, after the watch market came crashing down and here in the states "stagnation" is still killing the economy.
First generation Royal Oak and Nautilus would serve as interesting examples, unfortunately it may be a bit difficult to determine their original retail price back in the 1970s and their new old stock market price today. While it's possible that those watches may have outperformed the stock market, how likely is it that an individual buying watches back then would have been able to identify their investment potential out of a sea of options? I was not around in the 1970s, but there were way more brands around back then and my understanding is that the Royal Oak, at least initially, was a poor seller. 50 years later, they are two of the most desirable model lines in the world. But could we have feasibly predicted the long-term trajectory of Patek and AP as brands, and the cultural trends that would result in the demand for these watches today?
No offence, but as a watch lover, I don't kid myself. If you cannot tell the difference between speculation on a luxury toy that depreciates 99.9% of the time, and an investment where your odds are very high it will increase in value, then follow Obi-wan Kenobi's advice: go home and rethink your life. A formal education is an investment, it cannot be stolen from you, or smashed by a hammer, and it improves your odds of making a good living. Unlike a Rolex, which is automatically a sunk cost that requires paying for regular maintenance, and will depreciate 99% of the time, on average. Insurance only covers some of the value of a Rolex, after depreciation and other limitations are applied. So no, watches are not a good investment. A $100 Seiko solar quartz is more accurate and reliable than any Swiss luxury watch. I will buy an Omega when I have the money to burn, and it will be a toy that I enjoy. I invest in bonds that pay a guaranteed return, and my initial investment is secure. What is wrong with you people?
Even most steel sports Rolex are now at best only a couple of thousands above MSRP. When you have to buy 6 figures of rubbish at an AD in order to get one SSM, they are no longer considered good investments.
Tough viewing watches as an investment…Would rather view a Rolex or other top brand watch as an alternative form of currency since they rarely lose money, yet retain most of their value, and even keep up with inflation over time
It s like cars. Once discontinued and considered as "vintage" value is increased. Just have to buy, enjoy and if don t want to loose money to keep it long term. Some cars like some watches have value increasing rapidly (ferrari, porsche 911..) and others later after a drop. But in term of cost of maintenace and storage watches are way better + the patina that makes them unique!
Would you consider tracking sales of Blancpain watches over the near future? It’ll be interesting to see if the increased exposure increased sales of their watches due to the swatch collaboration.
Watch Charts answered the question using data --watches are NOT investments! During the irrational exuberance during the Pandemic, flippers were able to repeatedly buy and make profit on watches. The rare few who could buy a Rolex at an AD and made a quick profit drove up prices. Then business magazines started telling everyone that watches are an asset class to add to the hype.
Do not confuse investing with flipping! The stat showing how the S&P 500 Index clobbered any watch appreciation clearly shows you should never confuse watches with investments!
Again, great analysis...I would add that the enjoyment of wearing the watch attracts many ... You buy something you like, you use it for 10 years..., and if you chose well, sell it above your cost...few assets gives you that particularity... a house for example...
I feel my watches as not so much a monetary investment, but a quality lifestyle investment that may retain a lot value (when you buy pre-owned watches suitable for your financial situation). Watches are some things that you can appreciate on your wrist that might even appreciate in price, especially my older Rolexes, Omegas, etc.. Today I drive a pre-owned 5+ year old Camry and a Sienna van rather than a new Lexus IS (like I did when I was much younger). My Lexus sold for less than 20% of its original cost and costs thousands of dollars MORE in gas and repairs. That I don’t think was a very good investment. It's all relative. 😃
Amazing insights backed up by hard data. So glad that somebody finally shattered this concept that watches are this incredible investment vehicle to deliver outstanding returns. We were living through an everything bubble that was inflated by artificially low interest rates for many, many years. Once the cheap money dried up it revealed just how much of an illusion the watch community had bought into of watches being investments.
My view of the subject is that watches are for For fun and make you elegant and appreciate the work that happened to it and of course if you can save your money in it,, it is enough for me I don't care that it rises but the most important thing is to be a parking for money and in Fun way
A lot of parallels to the luxury car market here. 99% will lose value and its unlikely people will really know what takes off in price over the decades. Watches and cars are things we enjoy but not good investments.
Excellent synopsis - 100% correct- There's a beginning, middle and end to everything within reason. The flipping days for quick buck are gone, the party couldn't continue on!
A better comparison would be the appreciation of gold, or silver etc. A gold bar will get you out of any sticky situation, but so will a Rolex.
Wearing a Rolex - or indeed walking around with a bar of gold - is far more likely to get you INTO a sticky situation than out of one 🤷🏻♂️
Your calculation is right. I made a mistake earlier. Great job!
This is brilliant. Totally agree. Thanks for sharing.
I sold my amazon stocks and bought a breitling in 2005
Very FEW watches increase or have increased in value to be inflation proof. I have about $40K worth of watches and NOT one single one would have been an INVESTMENT if I had bought them new from AD's - Patek, Breitling, Cartier, Tag, Zenith, Grand Seiko. I bought them used in superb condition with original boxes and papers, most at 1/2 price from new. Be warned if you think your Patek will increase in value!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rolex daytona ghost is a good investment
Very well said, 100% agree with your analysis.
MARKET MANIPULATION VIA ARTIFICIAL SCARCITY - best example? ROLEX! They're only as good as an Omega or TAG.
Crucially a sale of a watch on the secondary market may be lacking in taxation. Whereas a sale of a s+p500 shareholding is a tax event 100% of the time. This effects net profit in reality
Very nice video, thanks for the insights, but we all know that the investment bit is mainly useful to self justify the purchase of the piece 😉
Watch is an expense for a luxury lifestyle, not an investment of course. It's a hobby to make you happy, a decorative piece.
Well done. I think a watch holds its value long term is good enough. For the record, in the U.S. $795 in 1978 is roughly equal to $3700 today.
I started collecting watches as family heirlooms to pass on to my children and grandchildren. Getting to wear them and enjoy them before I hand them to their eventual owners is a big bonus! 😉
Thank you for this video … it proves watches are not investments… I wish someone will do a video comparing Hermes Birkin with S&P500 … which Hermes continues to claim Birkin is a better “investment “ ….
Can you explain what the entire Watchchart market index jumped almost 2000$ about a month ago?
Terrific video - clear, level-headed and devoid of the usual Watch RUclips - and indeed general RUclips - silliness. I think a big problem with treating watches like more conventional investment assets is the lack of the long-term data showing ups and downs in price which indicate that something is at least potentially an investment asset - watch prices, even for Rolex, were basically as flat as a pancake before 2019, and then Covid-onomics hit. So we simply don’t know if watches are going to behave as an investment asset going forward; indeed, it’s quite possible that the last 4 years are simply an anomaly. That’s obviously not the case for equities where the last century at least tells us that prices move. The closest thing to watches as investment assets is collectibles like baseball cards and comic books and, when you realize that we have more data on how these perform over the long run than we do for watches, then you should be even LESS inclined to believe that watches are worth investing in, and certainly not as a viable alternative to simply parking your cash in an S&P 500 (or whatever index) ETF!
Let us enjoy our watches it’s always nice to see a beautiful elegant time pieces in our wrist - and not think of it as a quick investment-
Your example is false, the 795$ of 1978 is not the same 795$ of 2023. This is a basic economy fact. 795$ of 1978 is the equivalent of 3800$ now
While your statement is correct, it is not relevant to this example since the comparison of $31,000 for the Rolex 1675 vs. $128,000 for the S&P 500 are both in today's money. So the comparison is still apples to apples.
@@WatchCharts Yes, you are correct, I just checked : if you invested 795$ in 1978 on S&P stocks, you’ll get 128.000$ in 2023. Way more than the 31.000$ you get from the watch
You don't give money to a company when you buy stock. You buy them on a secondary exchange. They only time you give money to a company for stock is in the case of dilution
Great video. Yeah the greater-fool theory is basically speculation hoping another fool will pay more. It should not even be called investing. As you rightly pointed out, an investment produces returns and doesn’t rely on just the trading of the item.
Also, did Omega move more Speedmasters after the moon swatch?
No plans reselling any of the watches i buy so i dont ever consider resell value when buying a watch.
Then why you here?
@@BobbyDazzler888 i'm subbed to his channel and got a new video alert. Why am i subbed to a watch market channel? Because i find it interesting to see which brands hold value and which doesn't, even if i myself have no plans on selling my watches. Is that such a bad thing?
Well said!
Investment: No. Asset: Yes. The death of the watch flippers have proven this. Especially, after the watch market came crashing down and here in the states "stagnation" is still killing the economy.
Excellent video. Thank you.
Great analysis and would have good to include some more examples like the first gen royal oaks or nautilus
First generation Royal Oak and Nautilus would serve as interesting examples, unfortunately it may be a bit difficult to determine their original retail price back in the 1970s and their new old stock market price today.
While it's possible that those watches may have outperformed the stock market, how likely is it that an individual buying watches back then would have been able to identify their investment potential out of a sea of options? I was not around in the 1970s, but there were way more brands around back then and my understanding is that the Royal Oak, at least initially, was a poor seller. 50 years later, they are two of the most desirable model lines in the world. But could we have feasibly predicted the long-term trajectory of Patek and AP as brands, and the cultural trends that would result in the demand for these watches today?
No offence, but as a watch lover, I don't kid myself. If you cannot tell the difference between speculation on a luxury toy that depreciates 99.9% of the time, and an investment where your odds are very high it will increase in value, then follow Obi-wan Kenobi's advice: go home and rethink your life. A formal education is an investment, it cannot be stolen from you, or smashed by a hammer, and it improves your odds of making a good living. Unlike a Rolex, which is automatically a sunk cost that requires paying for regular maintenance, and will depreciate 99% of the time, on average. Insurance only covers some of the value of a Rolex, after depreciation and other limitations are applied. So no, watches are not a good investment. A $100 Seiko solar quartz is more accurate and reliable than any Swiss luxury watch. I will buy an Omega when I have the money to burn, and it will be a toy that I enjoy. I invest in bonds that pay a guaranteed return, and my initial investment is secure. What is wrong with you people?
Excellent analysis
Great video
Only most Rolex stainless steel sports models are a good investment. The rest is too volatile.
You didn't really watch the video and get the takeaways, did you?
Even most steel sports Rolex are now at best only a couple of thousands above MSRP. When you have to buy 6 figures of rubbish at an AD in order to get one SSM, they are no longer considered good investments.
Tough viewing watches as an investment…Would rather view a Rolex or other top brand watch as an alternative form of currency since they rarely lose money, yet retain most of their value, and even keep up with inflation over time
It s like cars. Once discontinued and considered as "vintage" value is increased. Just have to buy, enjoy and if don t want to loose money to keep it long term. Some cars like some watches have value increasing rapidly (ferrari, porsche 911..) and others later after a drop.
But in term of cost of maintenace and storage watches are way better + the patina that makes them unique!
Would you consider tracking sales of Blancpain watches over the near future? It’ll be interesting to see if the increased exposure increased sales of their watches due to the swatch collaboration.