Bit of a correction: the only ships that can take FP _are_ battleships, ever since the 10.0 captain skill overhaul. It was actually a stealth nerf to supercruisers (stalin and alaska/pr in particular) because the full duration fires with no way to buff the DCP really cut down their survivability.
Dude, I love having an engineer nerd making vids. A year ago I didn't have any 21pt commanders, working them all up together (more or less). Then I came across your old commander point video, now I have something like 8 and growing my commander skills by leaps and bounds. Thanks for the fire explanation, the whole FRC was all new to me and I didn't actually understand the interaction between that the your shells "supposed" fire chance.
Considering I had a battle once in an Akizuki. which ended with over 250 shell hits and a grand total of 1 single fire, this video hits way too close to home.
Great explanation. Thank you. I don't usually pay attention to fire chance, but your comparison of fire chance across tiers is a point that I will use in future battles.
Great video. There is a comment below suggesting the real world fire chance is about a third of the value stated in the ship parameters in port (including modify options). So 10% fire chance is more like 3.4% in battle. This feels correct and I think your reply supports this. Well done for taking the time to reply to so many posts. Very professional.
Hey Paul! Thanks for watching and commenting. Glad you enjoyed the video. That 3.4% math the other viewer did takes into account things which are outside of the formula itself - for example the 0% fire chance that you get when hitting a ship in an area that is already on fire, which is even more powerful if you've got the Fire Prevention skill on your captain since you can be on fire in a given region of the ship twice! This means that while the formula does its best given a valid HE shell or bomb hit, it picks up AFTER a valid hit was registered, meaning that a player's observed fire chance will be lower at times. Anyways, thanks again for watching.
Great video! First time viewer here, and this video is something that I wanted to know about, and the presentation was really easy to follow and understand. Thank you! I remember watching a Flambass Harugumo match. He had IFHE, and possibly the signals equipped, and landed over 400 shells, and didn't get a fire. It was funny, and frustrating to watch how bad his RNG was for that match. It's nice to finally understand the math going into it.
Blessings upon the math-inclined to deep dive this for people like me who are math-averse. Thanks for doing such a detailed breakdown with practical examples. The TL;DR for why I never get fires is that RNG hates me. (0 of my 74 Marceau HE shells fired at unlit targets set a fire in a recent Clan Battle game.)
People is not math-averse. It's the lack of incentives to love, to need, to intimately get a deep relation with Maths. 🥰 For example, what would you (we all) do if money, the way we pay and are paid, were not a simple thing like paying 5,999.99 or borrowing at 10 % interest rate, but some little, very little more complex Maths were involved? For example, think about the hope of getting wages higher along your life as a function. The same about a function showing the increasing of the cost of life, bills, prices and so on. You would not sign a mortgage without making some calculations to know if after 5, 10 or 20 years you won't be able to pay back your loan because the inflation will eat a salary frozen during the last 10 years. Oh, wait! That is already reality. But our girlfriend / boyfriend, our parents, families and friends put so much social pressure on us that we forget about long term planning and we promise not just "eternal" love but also to pay back a big loan to pay a ridiculous price for "the house of your dreams". I feel very lucky for being social-pressure-proof. I would have to learn a lot of Maths to fullfil the social expectations.
An important addition should be that from the calculated low firechance from i.e. a Nevsky on a Montana you then have the lovely RNG factor wich further lower your chances by roughly half of that.
i did some experiments a while back At a all tier 10 game, your average fire chance against all others ships should be divided by 3.4 So if you have a 10% fire chance it would be 10/3.4 =2.94 . So your 10% fire chance is in reality 2.94%. So on average 34 shells hits to get 1 fire This takes into account, all ship types, aim quality, rng, fire prevention skills, player skills At lower tiers with the same fire chance has a more likely chance to cause a fire It should be noted that f you have good aim against especially bbs, then the fire chance goes up a bit
I did a similar experiment a while back for my IFHE video with Daring. I don't remember my figures for that ship - but averaging like you did makes sense to get the "realized fire chance" which, as you said averages all factors. Thanks for watching and sharing your own experiment.
Nice Video! Even with the formula the chances of just straight 10% on 10 shots could be 6% just based on Die Rolls for each gun shot. Just trying to get that die roll to be 10% of less of obtaining a fire. Weird how the formula will actually be similar to actual straight die rolls.
Thanks! Yeah there's a bit of RNG in there for sure. Your actual fire numbers will vary of course.... But before we even get to roll, we do a li'l mathin'. Thanks for watching!
Hey great Vid loved it! BUT can u confirm that Fire Prevention Expert actualy merges the two zones amid ships? That would be a real game changer for me!
Can confirm....Check the Fire page of the wiki here for the section called "FIRE ZONES": wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire#Fire_Zones Technically it says that it reduces the zones to three - which could mean that they all get a little larger, Rather than having a big one in the middle and two smaller ones fore and aft. Might be worth experimenting in a training room to see how big the middle zone is after taking FP - but yes - your ship's fire zones drop to three which reduces the shells that even have a chance of starting a fire - which is awesome. Thanks for watching!
Any chance of a similar video on the dark and mysterious world of AA? Most people are familiar with the damage per second figures and the number of flak bursts visible in the port specs. But I read/heard that aircraft on the green aiming part of the attack run have 30% damage reduction. Same for the last (or only) attack flight. What is the mechanic for flak? I read that there are 3 sectors ahead of the aircraft that progressively fill starting with the center. And from a CV point of view, how to dodge flak?
Honestly - I'd love to watch that video, produced by an AA expert! If I ever get smart enough to make it I will - but I have some knowledge gaps there myself. As for dodging flak, a video that helped me a lot is this one by Ahskance: ruclips.net/video/AbzwFp0pUjo/видео.html
So as a "quick math", just half the numbers WG give you. Yeah that sounds about right for most of their things. 10% chance for something in a lootbox? Prepare for 5%.
Excellent explanation of fire mechanics which I’ve shared on my clans discord! Now if you could somehow work out the math to add rng in you’d be a genius!
Do you mean for a single fire? That is a great question. It gets more interesting because you'll calculate that inversely.... Essentially, you take the challenge that you WON'T get a fire with a hit.... And multiply that value by itself once for each hit you score, then subtract that value from 1 to get your fire chance over consecutive hits.... I'll add an example in an edit in a minute - I'm on my phone right now.... ...okay, on my PC now! The chance of NOT getting a fire on my Montana with my Nevsky on a hit is 93.58%. To calculate the fire chance for 5 hits would be like this: .9358 * .9358 * .9358 * .9358 * .9358 = 0.717654 This means your odds of NOT getting a fire with a 5-hit Nevsky salvo is 71.8%. Which means your chances of getting a fire is about 28.2%.
I haven't found a new website for that, but a member of my discord created this updated table: cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1123070720847654982/1223833578513895485/image.png?ex=66350016&is=6633ae96&hm=265cb9c49df80bd234d0aa83e3879f3f7277f9fbc68b5c2e4979842986578d39&
I've read people raging about having paid thousands of dollars to Wargaming without getting better results in their battles. I've paid them some hundreds euros to get some premium tanks and WoT is becoming a bigger sheet show each version WG produces. Some day I will repair my last DVD equipped computer to go back to those old games that you could play solo.
Hate to say it but the fire chance and the game is really much more convoluted than even you started to explain. As a long time like cruiser player I've taken a distinct interest in fires and fire chance. I've begun to notice several patterns in the game such as a higher chance to get an initial fire but a lower chance to get a follow-up fire after that first one. Of course that means that anytime you start to recognize a pattern of any sort that means there is a defect in the random number generator that the game is using. Without having the actual code it's not possible to know whether it's because of a low quality RNG done to save CPU cycles or something from the implementation such as a failure to reseed the generator. However the effect seems to be that ships that rely on lower fire chance but higher number of hits will have much more variability in their success versus larger ships with higher fire chance. The end result is end up with games at the edge of statistically possible such as 200 possible fire starting events (Hindy 13% on a non burning non dcp BB). Even with resistance in the calculation the chance of this happening is like 1 in 8000. So this could happen a few times in a veteran player's wows career but Ive had this happen much more often, and always in ships with low to mid fire chance. Of course the only way to really know would be to peek under the game's hood to examine how RNG is implemented. That said, WG has shown an aversion to 3rd party help even if well intentioned....however given their history with game breaking bugs maybe not so surprising.
140 hits for the first fire with Marceau the other day, and around 120 with Hinde a few years ago. This game is simply broken. Don't try to make any sense of it.
lol unfairly. I can take my Conq out with it's 46% chance fire, dump 10 or 11 hits on ships per volley and not get a fire until my 3rd attempt. Then do it all over again. Then someone in a DD with a 4% chance will hit me with 2 shells and I ignite as they run away. I've been dealing with this crap for years; I swear I pissed off a dev and they nerfed my numbers.
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Fires are determined by how inconvenient it would be at that time.
This sounds about right.
Bit of a correction: the only ships that can take FP _are_ battleships, ever since the 10.0 captain skill overhaul. It was actually a stealth nerf to supercruisers (stalin and alaska/pr in particular) because the full duration fires with no way to buff the DCP really cut down their survivability.
You're totally right, good point! Yeah - the 60-second fire cruisers really got boned with that change.
Dude, I love having an engineer nerd making vids. A year ago I didn't have any 21pt commanders, working them all up together (more or less). Then I came across your old commander point video, now I have something like 8 and growing my commander skills by leaps and bounds. Thanks for the fire explanation, the whole FRC was all new to me and I didn't actually understand the interaction between that the your shells "supposed" fire chance.
Happy to help man, so glad you dig the channel!
Considering I had a battle once in an Akizuki. which ended with over 250 shell hits and a grand total of 1 single fire, this video hits way too close to home.
I feel you. 😭
Great explanation. Thank you. I don't usually pay attention to fire chance, but your comparison of fire chance across tiers is a point that I will use in future battles.
Glad it was helpful!
Great video. There is a comment below suggesting the real world fire chance is about a third of the value stated in the ship parameters in port (including modify options). So 10% fire chance is more like 3.4% in battle. This feels correct and I think your reply supports this. Well done for taking the time to reply to so many posts. Very professional.
Hey Paul! Thanks for watching and commenting. Glad you enjoyed the video. That 3.4% math the other viewer did takes into account things which are outside of the formula itself - for example the 0% fire chance that you get when hitting a ship in an area that is already on fire, which is even more powerful if you've got the Fire Prevention skill on your captain since you can be on fire in a given region of the ship twice! This means that while the formula does its best given a valid HE shell or bomb hit, it picks up AFTER a valid hit was registered, meaning that a player's observed fire chance will be lower at times. Anyways, thanks again for watching.
@@ClydePlays Thanks for that
Great video! First time viewer here, and this video is something that I wanted to know about, and the presentation was really easy to follow and understand. Thank you! I remember watching a Flambass Harugumo match. He had IFHE, and possibly the signals equipped, and landed over 400 shells, and didn't get a fire. It was funny, and frustrating to watch how bad his RNG was for that match. It's nice to finally understand the math going into it.
Happy to help! Welcome to the channel!
Very informative had not thought about it that in depth
Thanks Donald!
Blessings upon the math-inclined to deep dive this for people like me who are math-averse. Thanks for doing such a detailed breakdown with practical examples. The TL;DR for why I never get fires is that RNG hates me. (0 of my 74 Marceau HE shells fired at unlit targets set a fire in a recent Clan Battle game.)
RNG holds sway over us all. Thanks for watching Daniel.
People is not math-averse. It's the lack of incentives to love, to need, to intimately get a deep relation with Maths. 🥰
For example, what would you (we all) do if money, the way we pay and are paid, were not a simple thing like paying 5,999.99 or borrowing at 10 % interest rate, but some little, very little more complex Maths were involved?
For example, think about the hope of getting wages higher along your life as a function. The same about a function showing the increasing of the cost of life, bills, prices and so on. You would not sign a mortgage without making some calculations to know if after 5, 10 or 20 years you won't be able to pay back your loan because the inflation will eat a salary frozen during the last 10 years.
Oh, wait!
That is already reality.
But our girlfriend / boyfriend, our parents, families and friends put so much social pressure on us that we forget about long term planning and we promise not just "eternal" love but also to pay back a big loan to pay a ridiculous price for "the house of your dreams".
I feel very lucky for being social-pressure-proof. I would have to learn a lot of Maths to fullfil the social expectations.
Awesome work Clyde! Well done!
Thanks Alex!
caught me way off guard with the crash course(?) jingle at the beginning; phenomenal video! it’s got me tempted to reinstall the game lol
I'm glad you liked it! Yeah, that little stinger jingle was too fun to not use....though its just a rando song from YT's library. :D
@@ClydePlays oh really? today i learned. still hit me with nostalgia from back when i was watching those vids like 6 years ago
I'll have to go look for it! Not familiar with them.
Floods yes please.
I'll see about it!
An important addition should be that from the calculated low firechance from i.e. a Nevsky on a Montana you then have the lovely RNG factor wich further lower your chances by roughly half of that.
The RNG giveth and the RNG taketh away.
i did some experiments a while back
At a all tier 10 game, your average fire chance against all others ships should be divided by 3.4
So if you have a 10% fire chance it would be 10/3.4 =2.94 . So your 10% fire chance is in reality 2.94%. So on average 34 shells hits to get 1 fire
This takes into account, all ship types, aim quality, rng, fire prevention skills, player skills
At lower tiers with the same fire chance has a more likely chance to cause a fire
It should be noted that f you have good aim against especially bbs, then the fire chance goes up a bit
I did a similar experiment a while back for my IFHE video with Daring. I don't remember my figures for that ship - but averaging like you did makes sense to get the "realized fire chance" which, as you said averages all factors.
Thanks for watching and sharing your own experiment.
Informative and entertaining.
Very well explained, thanks.
Glad you enjoyed!
Awesome video, I’m fairly new player so this was very helpful
Glad it was helpful! Thanks for watching.
Nice Video! Even with the formula the chances of just straight 10% on 10 shots could be 6% just based on Die Rolls for each gun shot. Just trying to get that die roll to be 10% of less of obtaining a fire. Weird how the formula will actually be similar to actual straight die rolls.
Thanks! Yeah there's a bit of RNG in there for sure. Your actual fire numbers will vary of course.... But before we even get to roll, we do a li'l mathin'.
Thanks for watching!
Hey great Vid loved it! BUT can u confirm that Fire Prevention Expert actualy merges the two zones amid ships? That would be a real game changer for me!
Can confirm....Check the Fire page of the wiki here for the section called "FIRE ZONES": wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire#Fire_Zones
Technically it says that it reduces the zones to three - which could mean that they all get a little larger, Rather than having a big one in the middle and two smaller ones fore and aft.
Might be worth experimenting in a training room to see how big the middle zone is after taking FP - but yes - your ship's fire zones drop to three which reduces the shells that even have a chance of starting a fire - which is awesome.
Thanks for watching!
Any chance of a similar video on the dark and mysterious world of AA? Most people are familiar with the damage per second figures and the number of flak bursts visible in the port specs. But I read/heard that aircraft on the green aiming part of the attack run have 30% damage reduction. Same for the last (or only) attack flight.
What is the mechanic for flak? I read that there are 3 sectors ahead of the aircraft that progressively fill starting with the center. And from a CV point of view, how to dodge flak?
Honestly - I'd love to watch that video, produced by an AA expert! If I ever get smart enough to make it I will - but I have some knowledge gaps there myself.
As for dodging flak, a video that helped me a lot is this one by Ahskance: ruclips.net/video/AbzwFp0pUjo/видео.html
So as a "quick math", just half the numbers WG give you. Yeah that sounds about right for most of their things. 10% chance for something in a lootbox? Prepare for 5%.
And I thought we just rubbed 2 sticks together, I am so behind the times.
LOL!
Excellent explanation of fire mechanics which I’ve shared on my clans discord! Now if you could somehow work out the math to add rng in you’d be a genius!
Thanks! Glad you liked the video. Appreciate the share with your clan mates!
I just find it ironic that Kongo always catches on fire, too much "Burning Love"?
🎶 This. Komgo's on fiyaaaaaaaaah! 🎵
no wonder I can't start fires very often in a lot of DDs.
Yep - that's why. Thanks for watchin', Bacon!
So that is for 1 Nevsky shell. Let’s say you land 5 shells on Monty in a salvo your effective fire chance per salvo would be north of 30%, no?
Do you mean for a single fire? That is a great question. It gets more interesting because you'll calculate that inversely....
Essentially, you take the challenge that you WON'T get a fire with a hit.... And multiply that value by itself once for each hit you score, then subtract that value from 1 to get your fire chance over consecutive hits.... I'll add an example in an edit in a minute - I'm on my phone right now....
...okay, on my PC now!
The chance of NOT getting a fire on my Montana with my Nevsky on a hit is 93.58%. To calculate the fire chance for 5 hits would be like this:
.9358 * .9358 * .9358 * .9358 * .9358 = 0.717654
This means your odds of NOT getting a fire with a 5-hit Nevsky salvo is 71.8%. Which means your chances of getting a fire is about 28.2%.
Do you know of a website that has xp calculation, like the old wowsft?
I haven't found a new website for that, but a member of my discord created this updated table: cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1123070720847654982/1223833578513895485/image.png?ex=66350016&is=6633ae96&hm=265cb9c49df80bd234d0aa83e3879f3f7277f9fbc68b5c2e4979842986578d39&
lol why does my ship light on fire first time every time id the enemy ship only has a 10% fire chance?
Sigh....RNG, sadly. I feel you on this one. Thanks for watching! :D
@@ClydePlays and I dont have a good relationship with RNG.....
It's true. That dumb ol' stupid ol' arrrrr ennnn gee!
Nice work Clyde but I'm pretty sure I don't get fires because of the hackers and the fact that I didn't buy the premium battle pass. /s
Well....start buying the battlepass? LOL....don't do that. Then you'll start getting fires and think your crackpot theory is right.
I've read people raging about having paid thousands of dollars to Wargaming without getting better results in their battles.
I've paid them some hundreds euros to get some premium tanks and WoT is becoming a bigger sheet show each version WG produces.
Some day I will repair my last DVD equipped computer to go back to those old games that you could play solo.
In the opening of your video it’s not a one in ten chance. It is a 10% chance. Those are two different metrics.
Hate to say it but the fire chance and the game is really much more convoluted than even you started to explain. As a long time like cruiser player I've taken a distinct interest in fires and fire chance. I've begun to notice several patterns in the game such as a higher chance to get an initial fire but a lower chance to get a follow-up fire after that first one. Of course that means that anytime you start to recognize a pattern of any sort that means there is a defect in the random number generator that the game is using.
Without having the actual code it's not possible to know whether it's because of a low quality RNG done to save CPU cycles or something from the implementation such as a failure to reseed the generator.
However the effect seems to be that ships that rely on lower fire chance but higher number of hits will have much more variability in their success versus larger ships with higher fire chance.
The end result is end up with games at the edge of statistically possible such as 200 possible fire starting events (Hindy 13% on a non burning non dcp BB). Even with resistance in the calculation the chance of this happening is like 1 in 8000. So this could happen a few times in a veteran player's wows career but Ive had this happen much more often, and always in ships with low to mid fire chance.
Of course the only way to really know would be to peek under the game's hood to examine how RNG is implemented. That said, WG has shown an aversion to 3rd party help even if well intentioned....however given their history with game breaking bugs maybe not so surprising.
140 hits for the first fire with Marceau the other day, and around 120 with Hinde a few years ago. This game is simply broken. Don't try to make any sense of it.
lol unfairly. I can take my Conq out with it's 46% chance fire, dump 10 or 11 hits on ships per volley and not get a fire until my 3rd attempt. Then do it all over again. Then someone in a DD with a 4% chance will hit me with 2 shells and I ignite as they run away. I've been dealing with this crap for years; I swear I pissed off a dev and they nerfed my numbers.
Haha, oh the humanity! Starting fires is a cruel math joke, for sure. Thanks for watching Francis.