Remember that run in the win streak where he fought the ja worm on the very first floor and almost completely died and then found a waffle in the shop and beat the heart? That was absolutely insane…..
At 6:33, considering a sample size of N = 193, for a win rate of p = 52%, the uncertainty can be estimated by square root of (p*(1-p)/N) which is 3.5%. So yes, it is possible that the boss swap did nothing.
It may not affect the overall win rate, but it may still affect the win rate of that specific run, as boss swap may be the best option among the starter bonus. Still you can argue for boss swap is at best an average choice (for Baalorlord)
Considering you died a lot less to act 2 elites and bosses, perhaps the lesson is that you can take more risk in act 2. That way you might be stronger coming into act 3 (where most of the deaths occurred)
I think the biggest issue with poison decks is artifact. Some specific bosses (heart, donu, shield & spear, etc) with multiple stacks of artifact totally wreck poison decks. Each stack of artifact adds a curse to your deck that you have to have specific draws and pay energy for nothing. Sometimes those cards even exhaust which makes it worse. Does any other character have such a dire status effect that is so common? Clad might get weak or frail but their cards still work some. The mid match artifact is particularly dire, as poison takes a couple turns to get ramped up and can be totally nullified. Artifact just isn't fair vs poison.
When looking at the winrates for first upgrade. Bash being 44% means that, at least for us mortals, reaching the first upgrade with nothing better than bash, is gonna be pretty rough
To figure out the actual value of each card, it might be interesting to test something like Win Rate by whether or not the card was _offered_ (in each act). For example, If being offered Dark Embrace in Act 1 meaningfully improves winrate, then we can guess that Dark Embrace is a good card (and that it is being picked correctly). Cards which are not being picked often should have very low influence on winrate (but would be slightly negative, because they're taking up a slot that could have gone to a more useful card). Winmore cards that don't change the outcome of the run will have no impact. Effect sizes might be too small to analyze without a lot more data, though.
You gotta be careful about making conclusions. Being shocked to see Fossilised Helix below average win rate for Ironclad for example, if you had just won 1 more of those runs then it would have been above average win rate. That's just statistical variance. Same thing with the Dead Branch being higher win rate on Silent. Do 40,000 heart kills and then we can judge. ;)
as a new spire player: can i track my stats similarly? i wonder what kind of workload it takes to track these stats or jf there is a mod that tacks this for me, id love to share and compare my journey but im not really down to record all my runs and track it afterwards. please let me know how this was created
If you're on PC, you can find a file with all of your run data in the game files. I can't remember if there's an option to export it in game, but it's fairly easy to find.
I've thought that deadly poison is one of the most powerful card upgrades (relatively) in the game - going from 15 damage up to 28 damage while hitting far harder initially. The delayed effect can be rough, but it's damage potential is so high, particularly when upgraded.
Artifact is a huge problem for DP. All of the acts have a strong artifact threat. Sentries is probably the worst one. Spending 1 energy to remove one artifact is a really bad trade. You can remove it with other cards but that’s dependent on your draw.
No this was his challenge for 2022 and I’m 99% certain this was recorded a year ago and I thought it was already uploaded here but I can’t find it on this channel
do you really think there is a chance that all the written text and spoken words that repeatedly say 2022 in this video are all incorrect? Like cmon think about it lmao
Cleave is trash too, but sometimes you have to take it because you don't have a real AOE threat. That's probably the case for Silent too, but she has a lot of card spam builds that make up for not Having AOE, unlike Ironclad.
Congrats on an amazing year. Here's to 2024. May the Spire fear us both!
Omg frost is here
@@ciaranryan6036 everyone is here 🎉
Ya both know each other!?
Omg my two favourite streamers!! Best wishes on this new year!
Real shiii. Good looks Frost man
Remember that run in the win streak where he fought the ja worm on the very first floor and almost completely died and then found a waffle in the shop and beat the heart? That was absolutely insane…..
The fact that this guy is still learning and improving just shows the incredible depth and balance of this game.
Realizing I'm a huge nerd for data analysis like this. Please keep doing it.
Yeah. These are great. Not just the data, but Baalor’s thoughtfulness about it all.
At 6:33, considering a sample size of N = 193, for a win rate of p = 52%, the uncertainty can be estimated by square root of (p*(1-p)/N) which is 3.5%. So yes, it is possible that the boss swap did nothing.
It may not affect the overall win rate, but it may still affect the win rate of that specific run, as boss swap may be the best option among the starter bonus. Still you can argue for boss swap is at best an average choice (for Baalorlord)
@@lightforgedcrusader2992 I see what you mean and I agree.
When I see people like you speak math I realise why I have to utilise charm and charisma to make money. Because I'm clearly fucking retarded
Considering you died a lot less to act 2 elites and bosses, perhaps the lesson is that you can take more risk in act 2. That way you might be stronger coming into act 3 (where most of the deaths occurred)
I love these "a retrospective" videos with stats and analysis. Could make this a series.
Damage per fight would be a better metric than total damage imo. Would normalize the #s.
I think the biggest issue with poison decks is artifact. Some specific bosses (heart, donu, shield & spear, etc) with multiple stacks of artifact totally wreck poison decks. Each stack of artifact adds a curse to your deck that you have to have specific draws and pay energy for nothing. Sometimes those cards even exhaust which makes it worse.
Does any other character have such a dire status effect that is so common? Clad might get weak or frail but their cards still work some. The mid match artifact is particularly dire, as poison takes a couple turns to get ramped up and can be totally nullified. Artifact just isn't fair vs poison.
boo hoo hooo life is so unfair for poison spammers
@@afbanjagjafdbxcvbrtjwsasdg2825 What a bizarre, emotionally charged response to someone simply discussing balance in a single player game...
So this was for 2022? Was this video made recently or last year?
Last year. This is basically a re-upload
When looking at the winrates for first upgrade. Bash being 44% means that, at least for us mortals, reaching the first upgrade with nothing better than bash, is gonna be pretty rough
Pretty sure this is a re-release from back in February or so? I swear I saw this before.
Really interesting stats. And I must find out your secret of never dying to Automaton with Ironclad.
To figure out the actual value of each card, it might be interesting to test something like Win Rate by whether or not the card was _offered_ (in each act). For example, If being offered Dark Embrace in Act 1 meaningfully improves winrate, then we can guess that Dark Embrace is a good card (and that it is being picked correctly). Cards which are not being picked often should have very low influence on winrate (but would be slightly negative, because they're taking up a slot that could have gone to a more useful card). Winmore cards that don't change the outcome of the run will have no impact.
Effect sizes might be too small to analyze without a lot more data, though.
Is all of this for 2022? Do you have the same for 2023? Super interesting to see this thanks for prepping all of this
I can’t speak to an overall stats recap but he did post one of these for the Mastery challenge a week or two ago
You gotta be careful about making conclusions. Being shocked to see Fossilised Helix below average win rate for Ironclad for example, if you had just won 1 more of those runs then it would have been above average win rate. That's just statistical variance. Same thing with the Dead Branch being higher win rate on Silent. Do 40,000 heart kills and then we can judge. ;)
as a new spire player:
can i track my stats similarly? i wonder what kind of workload it takes to track these stats or jf there is a mod that tacks this for me, id love to share and compare my journey but im not really down to record all my runs and track it afterwards. please let me know how this was created
If you're on PC, you can find a file with all of your run data in the game files. I can't remember if there's an option to export it in game, but it's fairly easy to find.
I've thought that deadly poison is one of the most powerful card upgrades (relatively) in the game - going from 15 damage up to 28 damage while hitting far harder initially.
The delayed effect can be rough, but it's damage potential is so high, particularly when upgraded.
Artifact is a huge problem for DP. All of the acts have a strong artifact threat. Sentries is probably the worst one. Spending 1 energy to remove one artifact is a really bad trade. You can remove it with other cards but that’s dependent on your draw.
Reupload from last year?
Edit: ah, this is the segment finally edited down from the stream
I'm pretty sure I've seen this video before, and I only watch on RUclips... Maybe it's re-edited though?
If you survive nob with 10 hp and die in the next fight. Is that counted as a NOB Death?
not in this report. he mentions that a lack of deaths to nob on some character is probably linked to a death on the 3 lice
Hey, awesome video, I just noticed all the dates are for 2022? Did you mean 2023?
No, the 400 heart kills was a 2022 challenge, just like how the card mastery was a 2023 challenge.
No this was his challenge for 2022 and I’m 99% certain this was recorded a year ago and I thought it was already uploaded here but I can’t find it on this channel
do you really think there is a chance that all the written text and spoken words that repeatedly say 2022 in this video are all incorrect? Like cmon think about it lmao
I'm pretty sure his A20 win streak was in 2022 so this seems right
@@fireeye6762 I'm pretty sure I've seen this before too, and I only watch on RUclips, so I think it must have been reuploaded.
some serious heartache
Dagger spray being a 41% win rate combined with how 2023 went I think there is definitive evidence that says that card is just bad haha. Good to know.
Cleave is trash too, but sometimes you have to take it because you don't have a real AOE threat. That's probably the case for Silent too, but she has a lot of card spam builds that make up for not Having AOE, unlike Ironclad.
Love these videos, do we have a challenge for 2024 yet?
Yes: aiming for a streak of (at least) 20 wins for each character (not rotating this time). Currently working at Ironclad's streak.
wait what, has this never been posted? i thought this would be the mastery challenge recap lul
Mastery recap is also on here, from around Thanksgiving iirc
Congratz
Mastery challenge may skew a little too.
Achievement Unlocked - CORONARY CARNAGE!!!
This video once again has the weird stereo popping audio thing.
Wow im early
youre actually one year late. just like me