I noticed on the 12z NAM 6z Tuesday, I am getting PDS soundings in central Kansas with well over 2.5k CAPE, and a deep moist layer. Everything seemed to be more severe then the soundings you took. hopefully the trend stops, nobody likes nocturnal tornadoes.
I have a phobia concerning tornados (I even dream of them coming to get me 😱) but your scientific and honest discussion really helps me. Also you have a very soothing voice 😂
@@iiDOCKERYit started when I was a kid in the '60s and weather forecasting was telling you what happened that day😅 the more I know the more I can prepare (you out to see my basement 🤣
The CSU MLP severe model is showing nearly a 45% risk of severe weather centered around the STL area! It’ll be interesting to see how the outlooks evolve over the next few days but I’m definitely preparing for the worst lol
Just waiting for a strong setup in se wisconsin. Looks like the cold lake will keep the warm front south of my area... Hopefully some better setups later this year.
Hey Trey! You are such a great severe weather predictor, you should work at SPC! Thank you for all you do. Do you think any damaging gusts in northeast Ohio tomorrow evening?
Man, have you watched one of the NWS's disscussion videos recently? They are some of the worst videos i have seen. They NEED to just hire you to do their videos man.... your quality is unsurpassed!
Hi Trey, thanks for another great video! I’m new to this whole weather thing and had a question. What effect does vertical mixing have on the quality of moisture in an area?
Honestly, the richness of the moist layer only extending up to about 850 millibars may not be too big of a problem, since other factors can compensate for it. We had much of the same thing with the 4/19/23 outbreak, and that moist layer only extended up to about 850 millibars as well. What are your thoughts Trey?
Thanks Trey, how are the waters in the Gulf looking into May, having been below average in March & April. 2024’s cooler waters seem to have been the missing factor, with this system being the first to benefit from favourable dew points.
There actually hasn't been a ton of change in Gulf SST anomalies since my initial video in late Feb. Basically, there are some splotches of above average waters and some splotches of below average waters, leading to a pretty average Gulf of Mexico as far as SST anomalies go. The problem this year has been continued scouring of the moisture well offshore by this active pattern. Cold front after cold front has scoured the moisture, which has been decent, well into the Gulf so that we don't have enough moisture by the time an event rolls around given a lack of time to get that moisture back up into the US. The SSTs are expected to increase going into the late spring and summer, so we'll see if that plays a role.
The storms that initially pop in western Oklahoma, does it currently look like they'll still have any serious tornado potential by the time they get to the eastern part of the state? Thanks!
Great analysis as always Trey! One thing i’m a bit skeptical on is how shallow that moisture will truly be. I feel like several days of moisture pooling into the risk areas would leave you with a bit more depth than currently forecasted. Could be mislead here though. Thoughts?
@@ConvectiveChronicles Good stuff! I think we’re all ready for some in range CAMs tonight. Globals and regionals have me banging my head against the wall.
I love these videos. Always been lowkey interested weather prediction but recently went headlong into learning the science. I have Radarscope ready to roll for Tuesday when storms are expected in SE Wisco 🤟
Great video Trey this setup is certainly looking really potent day 2/1 moderate risk or a day 1 high risk are possible for Monday and that Tuesday risk is looking concerning it's self im in that risk to and im in that risk Monday
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah a high risk is not out of the question it's certainly possible the reason why I said that Is because this similar to a few high risk days and I'm concerned because the people in my area keep saying the SPC is wrong and I'm worried that something might actually happen when they think it won't
Hey Trey. Awesome work with initial forecast as always. I;m waiting for this event because it have potential to be on of those " Classic Plains Outbreak" or like what one well respected weather guy in storm chasing family named Trey often says: textbook 😀 In 2024 every event so far is difficult to forecast and weather is somewhat more unpredictable like before especialy forecasting from numeric models....in USA,Europe,Asia I see this pattern that most of severe weather forecast are don't come true or they came true in diffent places or different intensity and models are not consistant in any way with forecast (even within 12 hours before).....I have been observing the weather closely for many years and 2024 so far is more chaotic than usual. Many sudden changes and anomalies, temperature anomalies (like summer temp in Europe right now), suprising severe weather events in small or medium(1-3 countries) scale and so on. This is aftermath of strong and long El Nino and deep Neg PDO or something else? I have few theories but I want wait and observe little more to see if that is what I think it is.
Thank you! Haha there are lots of “textbook” things about this setup! It definitely has been pretty tricky to forecast these events this year; even the best in the business at the SPC have struggled. I don’t know why that’s been the case this year; would be interesting to research.
As always, another great video/every time I see one, I learn something new / one of many things that has always confused me is the moving of the storms and the moving of the tornado / sometimes in videos, it appears that the tornado is moving along with the storm and then other times, the tornado is moving faster than the storm as if it may run out of the storm, which I know cannot happen and then other times it seems like the storm is moving one way and the tornado may be moving another way? I guess probably all of these are possible as every scenario and every storm R like snowflakes, no two are ever alike / thank you / these videos are very important to me to not just learn but try to stay calm
Thank you! You're right, every tornado and parent supercell is different. Generally, tornadoes move with the storm, but sometimes, other factors can take over and cause different motion. Here's a great article on that: cameronjnixon.wordpress.com/research/deviant-tornadoes/
For the first time in 20 years I am feeling doubtful about outlooks. Couple months ago they had an outlook targeted in the mid south - then northern Ohio had 'surprise' tornadoes. Then they had SE Ohio targeted - and the storms happened in the Carolinas and Florida. They have been getting the bad weather part correct- but for some reason geographical targeting has been off. Really stunning. I'll wait to see before alerting family and friends.
These setups have been very tricky to forecast this year. Even the best in the business at the SPC have had a tough time getting it right. Such is the nature of severe storms meteorology.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I completely understand. I have been a self trained 'weather watcher' for a couple of decades. This has been a very strange 6 months, but the jet stream has been odd as well. Are you familiar with Dr. Jennifer Francis (Rutgers) papers on Arctic Amplification and it's effects on the Jet Stream? I think that is part of this problem.
I also agree with this. I don't think It's the SPCs fault at all though. These systems have been incredibly unpredictable this year!! I'm a Texan saying this and i've been through multiple Enh/Mod outlooks. In the past 6-7 slight risks ive been in, i've gotten nothing and the area around didn't either.
This definitely has a lot of looks still of April 2012 though it won't exactly be that event. Just in the feel and look of it does but slid from KS to OK. Very classic textbook OK event and one I think we haven't seen with a dry line like this and parameters in like 7 years. I will not be surprised to see the SPC finally push out a MDT for Monday tomorrow....likely they are just waiting and watching for one more day of downstream data and runs. This Monday event has PROBABLY the highest ceiling potential out of all the events we have seen in 2024. Actually the Tuesday event had a pretty stout ceiling too but the vastness and spread out nature of that one is gonna be a hell of a day for the NWS offices from Chicago to Dallas. I mean it's been a good while since we have seen a Day 5 and now Day 4 (as of now) spread that big. I mean that's pretty wild, and I will not be surprised to see that turned into a bi-modal set up. I'd still keep an eye on the Northern mode if so on that vs the Southern sector only because I do like the idea of the warm front and low helping out as that matures even more. Actually I would not be surprised if the Tuesday event in terms of scale out does Monday. There's a chance it may but that's likely just because of how widespread Tuesday is for Monday. But Trey, your tour group is gonna be quite busy the next few days for sure. :)
As per usual, the models start off extremely aggressive and chaser social media goes nuts, then the models slowly backpedal and realism sets in and we start to see a clearer picture that isn't a slam dunk. It's also fairly frustrating that the NAM is generally one of the better models we have and yet sometimes its cool bias is 10 degrees off and you have to completely dismiss some soundings. I can definitely see this turning into a widespread tornado outbreak if the 850mb map holds up, but man there's a lot of ways this goes wrong. There's so much dry air aloft, tons of timing issues with the trough ejection, and nocturnal outbreaks are always wildly unpredictable and difficult to chase. A lot of this really comes down to what hour the first back of updrafts fire off in the risk area. That'll tell the story, and we won't know for sure until it actually happens. Once again, SPC doing the best they can with what they're given, probably will initialize the day 2 outlook tomorrow with a 10% hatched tornado risk based on those wind profiles, but it's yet another low floor/high ceiling kinda event and thus far this year those have all "underperformed". A lot left to be seen over the next couple days. Great video, Trey! Always harder to make these kinds of forecast videos a few days out, so appreciate you taking the time to try to take an ensemble approach and find some sort of commonality.
WOO! Everyone wake up, Mr. Trey dropped another forecast discussion!
Awesome job as always!! Love how you don’t follow the weather hype train and you are straight forward with your forecast!! Keep up the great work!!!
Thank you so much!
Come for the forecast, stay for the flies in the ointment. ☕
Always enjoy your very professional and straightforward discussions. Thank you.
Thank you so much!
I noticed on the 12z NAM 6z Tuesday, I am getting PDS soundings in central Kansas with well over 2.5k CAPE, and a deep moist layer. Everything seemed to be more severe then the soundings you took. hopefully the trend stops, nobody likes nocturnal tornadoes.
I’m in central Kansas too. Looks to be mainly Wichita and south that has the most impressive soundings but that dryline looks nasty too
Do you anticipate a bimodal risk on Tuesday? SPC seems to be hinting towards that.
It is certainly a possibility
I have a phobia concerning tornados (I even dream of them coming to get me 😱) but your scientific and honest discussion really helps me. Also you have a very soothing voice 😂
Tf ?
That’s awesome to hear; thank you!
? @@iiDOCKERY
That is how my obsession started. I still have tornado nightmares (usually there are only rooms full of windows) but having knowledge helped me IRL.
@@iiDOCKERYit started when I was a kid in the '60s and weather forecasting was telling you what happened that day😅 the more I know the more I can prepare (you out to see my basement 🤣
The CSU MLP severe model is showing nearly a 45% risk of severe weather centered around the STL area! It’ll be interesting to see how the outlooks evolve over the next few days but I’m definitely preparing for the worst lol
Just waiting for a strong setup in se wisconsin. Looks like the cold lake will keep the warm front south of my area... Hopefully some better setups later this year.
Hey Trey! You are such a great severe weather predictor, you should work at SPC! Thank you for all you do. Do you think any damaging gusts in northeast Ohio tomorrow evening?
Thank you so much! I’d definitely keep an eye out for a few damaging gusts in that area tomorrow
Thanks Trey!
Man, have you watched one of the NWS's disscussion videos recently? They are some of the worst videos i have seen. They NEED to just hire you to do their videos man.... your quality is unsurpassed!
Thank you so much!
Our local nws (nws fort worth) mentioned that a Pacific front may overtake the dryline? If that happened what would happen?
That is true; when that happens, storm mode will degrade into more of a line, increasing the damaging wind and spin up tornado threat
@@ConvectiveChronicles ah ok thank you!
Hi Trey, thanks for another great video! I’m new to this whole weather thing and had a question. What effect does vertical mixing have on the quality of moisture in an area?
Thank you! Vertical mixing can allow low-level moisture to decrease as dry air is mixed downward from above.
Honestly, the richness of the moist layer only extending up to about 850 millibars may not be too big of a problem, since other factors can compensate for it. We had much of the same thing with the 4/19/23 outbreak, and that moist layer only extended up to about 850 millibars as well. What are your thoughts Trey?
I agree
Nice video Trey. Unfortunately I can't work at home tuesday and wednesday or else I'd be working out of St. Louis ;)
Thank you! Dang…that’s alright, plenty more setups right around the corner.
Thanks Trey, how are the waters in the Gulf looking into May, having been below average in March & April. 2024’s cooler waters seem to have been the missing factor, with this system being the first to benefit from favourable dew points.
There actually hasn't been a ton of change in Gulf SST anomalies since my initial video in late Feb. Basically, there are some splotches of above average waters and some splotches of below average waters, leading to a pretty average Gulf of Mexico as far as SST anomalies go. The problem this year has been continued scouring of the moisture well offshore by this active pattern. Cold front after cold front has scoured the moisture, which has been decent, well into the Gulf so that we don't have enough moisture by the time an event rolls around given a lack of time to get that moisture back up into the US. The SSTs are expected to increase going into the late spring and summer, so we'll see if that plays a role.
I've been watching this system for about a week. Looking like the first one I'll be out chasing for this season.
The storms that initially pop in western Oklahoma, does it currently look like they'll still have any serious tornado potential by the time they get to the eastern part of the state? Thanks!
Yes…as the line moves east, low level shear will be strong; therefore, there will be a tornado risk.
Great analysis as always Trey! One thing i’m a bit skeptical on is how shallow that moisture will truly be. I feel like several days of moisture pooling into the risk areas would leave you with a bit more depth than currently forecasted. Could be mislead here though. Thoughts?
Thank you! I would tend to agree. We might have a bit better idea tomorrow with the observed soundings from down in the moisture plume in TX.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Good stuff! I think we’re all ready for some in range CAMs tonight. Globals and regionals have me banging my head against the wall.
How often is NAM this off to lunch? 70 degrees vs 87 degrees seems crazy.
It always has a pretty significant surface temperature bias like that.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I wonder why. It must help the overall model
@@JohnnyH71983 It's just a quirk with the overall schemes the NAM uses.
I love these videos. Always been lowkey interested weather prediction but recently went headlong into learning the science. I have Radarscope ready to roll for Tuesday when storms are expected in SE Wisco 🤟
Thank you so much! Hope you see some good stuff on Tuesday!
Do you think Ardmore Oklahoma will be in the enhanced
It’s possible. Regardless, prepare for all hazards
Trey, think this event could be similar to the May 11 event from last year?
That’s an interesting comparison. The trough was a bit better timed on that day, but the parameter space is equally potent.
@@ConvectiveChronicles agreed. Appreciate the feedback
Thanks for the forecast Trey! Do you think Indianapolis will get impacted by this? Also, what storm mode do you think will be present in that area?
Indianapolis very well could be in the risk area; I suspect storm mode might be messy by the time they get there.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks Trey! Really appreciate it man.
@@elitennis7973 You bet!
Great video Trey this setup is certainly looking really potent day 2/1 moderate risk or a day 1 high risk are possible for Monday and that Tuesday risk is looking concerning it's self im in that risk to and im in that risk Monday
Thank you! I think there are a few too many caveats for a high risk, but it’ll be a potent event regardless. We’ll see how Tuesday goes.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah a high risk is not out of the question it's certainly possible the reason why I said that Is because this similar to a few high risk days and I'm concerned because the people in my area keep saying the SPC is wrong and I'm worried that something might actually happen when they think it won't
I'd be interested in seeing a review after the storms pass thru . ( If I'm still alive, here in Alva Oklahoma, 😂).
If a low can be described as deep, or deepening, how would you describe a high? Or are they usually not described in this way?
That's a good question; I always just say "intensifying" high pressure. I'm not sure what the actual terms are.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesthanks for the response! That makes sense. Love ur channel, keep up the amazing work!
@@Wolf-tk6dk Thank you!
saw this one in my 2043 edition textbook
Hey Trey. Awesome work with initial forecast as always. I;m waiting for this event because it have potential to be on of those " Classic Plains Outbreak" or like what one well respected weather guy in storm chasing family named Trey often says: textbook 😀
In 2024 every event so far is difficult to forecast and weather is somewhat more unpredictable like before especialy forecasting from numeric models....in USA,Europe,Asia I see this pattern that most of severe weather forecast are don't come true or they came true in diffent places or different intensity and models are not consistant in any way with forecast (even within 12 hours before).....I have been observing the weather closely for many years and 2024 so far is more chaotic than usual. Many sudden changes and anomalies, temperature anomalies (like summer temp in Europe right now), suprising severe weather events in small or medium(1-3 countries) scale and so on.
This is aftermath of strong and long El Nino and deep Neg PDO or something else? I have few theories but I want wait and observe little more to see if that is what I think it is.
Thank you! Haha there are lots of “textbook” things about this setup! It definitely has been pretty tricky to forecast these events this year; even the best in the business at the SPC have struggled. I don’t know why that’s been the case this year; would be interesting to research.
Thanks for the update
Thanks!
Thank you so much for the Super Thanks!
They are baking in north central mexico monday. 105°F!
Enjoying your work Trey! Is it normal to have so many nocturnal severe weather events?
Thank you! Yes, it’s fairly normal, especially early in the season like this.
You think theyll go moderate for ia/mo/il for tuesday?
Too early to know for sure. Regardless, folks in those areas should prepare for an all hazards threat
As always, another great video/every time I see one, I learn something new / one of many things that has always confused me is the moving of the storms and the moving of the tornado / sometimes in videos, it appears that the tornado is moving along with the storm and then other times, the tornado is moving faster than the storm as if it may run out of the storm, which I know cannot happen and then other times it seems like the storm is moving one way and the tornado may be moving another way? I guess probably all of these are possible as every scenario and every storm R like snowflakes, no two are ever alike / thank you / these videos are very important to me to not just learn but try to stay calm
Thank you! You're right, every tornado and parent supercell is different. Generally, tornadoes move with the storm, but sometimes, other factors can take over and cause different motion. Here's a great article on that: cameronjnixon.wordpress.com/research/deviant-tornadoes/
For the first time in 20 years I am feeling doubtful about outlooks. Couple months ago they had an outlook targeted in the mid south - then northern Ohio had 'surprise' tornadoes. Then they had SE Ohio targeted - and the storms happened in the Carolinas and Florida. They have been getting the bad weather part correct- but for some reason geographical targeting has been off. Really stunning. I'll wait to see before alerting family and friends.
These setups have been very tricky to forecast this year. Even the best in the business at the SPC have had a tough time getting it right. Such is the nature of severe storms meteorology.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I completely understand. I have been a self trained 'weather watcher' for a couple of decades. This has been a very strange 6 months, but the jet stream has been odd as well. Are you familiar with Dr. Jennifer Francis (Rutgers) papers on Arctic Amplification and it's effects on the Jet Stream? I think that is part of this problem.
I have to agree with the lack of confidence - I feel the same way. It's been a weird year so far.
@@Elysian777rossby waves woooo
I also agree with this. I don't think It's the SPCs fault at all though. These systems have been incredibly unpredictable this year!! I'm a Texan saying this and i've been through multiple Enh/Mod outlooks. In the past 6-7 slight risks ive been in, i've gotten nothing and the area around didn't either.
Great video Trey! Looks like a good chase day for you?
Thank you! Absolutely! I’ve started my storm chasing tour guide gig for the season, so we chase pretty much everything from here on out.
Nice!
Is it just me or does it seem that there is a slight trend northwards
If there is any, it seems fairly negligible at this point
This definitely has a lot of looks still of April 2012 though it won't exactly be that event. Just in the feel and look of it does but slid from KS to OK. Very classic textbook OK event and one I think we haven't seen with a dry line like this and parameters in like 7 years. I will not be surprised to see the SPC finally push out a MDT for Monday tomorrow....likely they are just waiting and watching for one more day of downstream data and runs.
This Monday event has PROBABLY the highest ceiling potential out of all the events we have seen in 2024. Actually the Tuesday event had a pretty stout ceiling too but the vastness and spread out nature of that one is gonna be a hell of a day for the NWS offices from Chicago to Dallas. I mean it's been a good while since we have seen a Day 5 and now Day 4 (as of now) spread that big. I mean that's pretty wild, and I will not be surprised to see that turned into a bi-modal set up. I'd still keep an eye on the Northern mode if so on that vs the Southern sector only because I do like the idea of the warm front and low helping out as that matures even more.
Actually I would not be surprised if the Tuesday event in terms of scale out does Monday. There's a chance it may but that's likely just because of how widespread Tuesday is for Monday. But Trey, your tour group is gonna be quite busy the next few days for sure. :)
2012?
Nice
As per usual, the models start off extremely aggressive and chaser social media goes nuts, then the models slowly backpedal and realism sets in and we start to see a clearer picture that isn't a slam dunk. It's also fairly frustrating that the NAM is generally one of the better models we have and yet sometimes its cool bias is 10 degrees off and you have to completely dismiss some soundings.
I can definitely see this turning into a widespread tornado outbreak if the 850mb map holds up, but man there's a lot of ways this goes wrong. There's so much dry air aloft, tons of timing issues with the trough ejection, and nocturnal outbreaks are always wildly unpredictable and difficult to chase. A lot of this really comes down to what hour the first back of updrafts fire off in the risk area. That'll tell the story, and we won't know for sure until it actually happens.
Once again, SPC doing the best they can with what they're given, probably will initialize the day 2 outlook tomorrow with a 10% hatched tornado risk based on those wind profiles, but it's yet another low floor/high ceiling kinda event and thus far this year those have all "underperformed". A lot left to be seen over the next couple days.
Great video, Trey! Always harder to make these kinds of forecast videos a few days out, so appreciate you taking the time to try to take an ensemble approach and find some sort of commonality.
Thank you! Well said!