This year's meteorology has been really interesting. Correct me if I'm wrong but, I feel like the last few years were mostly predictable with only a few surprises. This year has been very hard to predict, and we've had multiple surprise tornado events. 3/14 and 11/3 were almost entirely surprising, 4/27, 5/6, and 5/25 all had their main tornadic events east of where the worst impacts were expected and after dark, meanwhile the hurricane Milton tornado outbreak may be unprecedented. 4/30-5/3 all seemed a little under forecasted, though I think that's partly due to the rule of not issuing hatched risk for 2% and 5%. Obviously slight over and under forecasting is par for the course, but in addition to the other events it seem significant. It seems we all have a lot to learn from this year. I know that we have come a long way and the past few years made it seem like we didn't have that much further to go, but this year proves that the destination is MUCH further. Anyway praying for those effected and great video as always! (Edit wrote 11/2 instead of 11/3)
@@lyanreehan No the high risk day was 5/6 and I wouldn't call a day with an EF4 "meh". 4/30 was the day of the strong tornados in and around Westmoreland KS and Hollister OK.
Thank you! Really great point…there has been some concrete evidence that models have actually gotten worse recently. Goes to show how important analyzing observed data is while an event is ongoing.
@@paradoxicalpoet1525 Im not calling an F4 meh i'm just saying that all the forecasters and meteorologists were treating it as it was "gonna be like bridge creek type of day"
Great video, Trey! That was a wild night full of surprises. Fortunately, I've watched your videos long enough to read and understand what is happening on radar and knew right away when I saw the two cells SW of Moore that they would possibly merge over town. It was very quick and only took 5-10 min until the circulation really tightened up. Your meteorological analysis is beneficial while studying weather events as they happen. -Asanté
Thank you, Asanté! Yeah, I definitely didn’t love the look of those supercells over Moore…I had a feeling we might be in trouble, especially with the warm front nearby to provide some extra oomph.
This one really took me by suprise. I didnt chase that Saturday and actually went to sleep early. Woke up to reading news about the tornados striking all around at 2 am. I was anticipating this breakdown happening soon, thank you very much Trey! Sunday I was out on the squall line chasing the embedded supercell just southwest of Ardmore. The road network is terrible west of 35 and between Ardmore and Marietta. Ended up ran over by a weaker circulation just south of the main meso in the squall. I won't chase this side of OK after dark. I'll pack my things up until Spring!
Excellent! I knew as soon as this event occurred that it would make an excellent subject for a case study. Can’t wait to dive into this one. These types of events are my favorite to study, the ones where a potent environment that is conducive for significant tornadoes isn’t expected, yet materializes anyways. Now I just want the May 6th case study and I’ll be satisfied. Thanks for your work as always Trey.
I would love a video about the Springfield, MA June 1st, 2011 EF3 tornado. I know it’s not the most interesting thing but EF3s in Massachusetts is a very rare event. Although western Massachusetts has a kind of mini tornado alley and I would love to hear your thoughts on why that may be
I really love these analysis videos. Especially this one where the threat did not initially seem as significant as it was; it really helps with understanding.
You hate to hear anything about "surprises", especially with night time naders 🌪. Thanks for the breakdown as always Trey. It almost makes me wonder, if you noticed this, why didn't others? 🤔 Looking at the pressure tongue indicating a warm front, the short wave.. I mean those are classic signs
I definitely thought something was suspicious, but I didn’t think it would come in the form of multiple discrete warm sector supercells. I thought the QLCS might get particularly ornery, with a potential for several QLCS spinups and some intense damaging winds, but sig tornadoes from discrete supercells (at least such a long duration threat for them) was unlikely.
Yeah, that was incredibly rapid improvement in the environment. Went from not even supporting thunderstorms to favoring significant tornadoes in just a few hours’ time.
good hot washup on a crazy weather weekend... we had a pretty sporty squall line blow thru at rush hour yesterday (along with a surprise tornado watch?)...seemed to me the cloud base was almost dragging the ground with big fat rain drops screaming sideways. thanks for putting this together...
Yeah as I said earlier, this event was quite a surprise to see on the overnight shift on my downtime. As you said, there wasn't much to suggest we'd see a tornado outbreak of this level....SPC didn't expect this to do much either but this almost feels similar to the nocturnal tornado outbreak we saw earlier this year around the OKC/Norman area. Granted that was a little different set up but a good bit of that is similar to how this played out but that also was an event too that I think surprised people with how vigorous and how fast shit hit the fan like this one when stuff really began to pop off. It was fascinating seeing ABC 7 and News9s coverage of this cause you can tell I think even they were surprised how impressive some of the tornadoes and TDSs they were seeing pop up. As you showed on the soundings, going into the evening it was mostly gonna be a squall line and the hodographs really weren't too impressive for a tornado event but man when that LLJ kicked in that changed the game and tons of low-level curvature in the hodographs and extremely impressive SRH and the EHI values if I remember too on the SPC mesoanaysis during the event were pretty high too. This pretty much just happened to be a worst case event where stuff got going at LITERALLY the worse time of the night when everyone was asleep too and these were powerful tornadoes. Tell you the truth Trey, I was surprised there were that many chasers up and out chasing on this night cause even 1-3am is pretty late by chasing standards. I think the people that went out chasing this were mostly just casually checking stuff out but then they got way more than what they invested in. I was a bit surprised to that people were also able to see some of those tornadoes too cause a fair bit of them were buried in the rain but the handful of photos that came out from this event were stupidly impressive that the handful of chasers were in the right spot and right time to get anything from this. This was an impressive multi-day system overall.
Great analysis, Trey! With all of these "surprise" storms this year coming as a result of "nudging," would it even be possible to forecast these things? At the moment, it seems almost completely random. Is there any current research attempting to find evidence of ways to forecast such nudging effects?
Thank you! That’s a great question…I’m not sure we can forecast these localized storm interaction events well at this point. That’s probably the next frontier of this type of research; I’m not aware of any specific research that deals with actually forecasting storm interactions in advance. In my discussions with Cameron, he has mentioned that this is more applicable to nowcasting as storms are ongoing.
I remember sitting in my Jacuzzi in my back yard that night here in North Texas somewhere around 10:30 pm and I remember it being very windy and seeing the LLJ absolutely ripping above my head northward and thinking to myself "man if the thermos were favorable right now, there'd be big trouble!"
Wow! Absolutely insane how fast that environment improved, after dark too! It’s just so fascinating how from a geographical standpoint how perfect the US is for robust severe weather. That’s something I always like thinking about.
another very good and informative video / there were sirens in Tulsa very early Saturday morning, however, nothing other than rain / the city has set records for yesterday and for the month at nearly 10 inches / somewhere in broken arrow There was 12 inches, that may have included October 30 storms / thank you again for a fantastic video
Squall lines interacting with discrete cells like the Comanche cell actually led to two of NY's strongest tornadoes in the past 25 years, the Rome tornado earlier this year and the Mechanicville tornado in 1998. The Rome tornado was preliminarily rated EF3 (dropped to EF2 later on) and happened on a 2% TOR day, while Mechanicville occurred on a high risk day but most of the northern part of the risk (where it happened) failed to produce, a few homes it hit sustained borderline violent damage. It's a phenomenon that I believe should be studied a lot more; especially since other interactions between squall lines and prefrontal cells (like the Barnsdall tornado on 5/6) may destroy or weaken tornadoes rather than enhance them.
Ryan Hall and Max Velocity predicted this outbreak before it happened. I said, No it's November! It's not going to happen! Well, I got proven wrong and admitted I was wrong. I thought it wouldn't happen again until spring 2025.
Congrats on the most uninformed response of the day. No storm chaser wants to see destruction…we all love tornadoes, but we never want to see them impact lives and property. Regarding this setup in particular, tornadic activity underperformed compared to expectations.
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This year's meteorology has been really interesting. Correct me if I'm wrong but, I feel like the last few years were mostly predictable with only a few surprises. This year has been very hard to predict, and we've had multiple surprise tornado events. 3/14 and 11/3 were almost entirely surprising, 4/27, 5/6, and 5/25 all had their main tornadic events east of where the worst impacts were expected and after dark, meanwhile the hurricane Milton tornado outbreak may be unprecedented. 4/30-5/3 all seemed a little under forecasted, though I think that's partly due to the rule of not issuing hatched risk for 2% and 5%. Obviously slight over and under forecasting is par for the course, but in addition to the other events it seem significant. It seems we all have a lot to learn from this year. I know that we have come a long way and the past few years made it seem like we didn't have that much further to go, but this year proves that the destination is MUCH further. Anyway praying for those effected and great video as always!
(Edit wrote 11/2 instead of 11/3)
4/30 was extremely over forecasted was that not the high severity day that was very meh?
@@lyanreehan No the high risk day was 5/6 and I wouldn't call a day with an EF4 "meh". 4/30 was the day of the strong tornados in and around Westmoreland KS and Hollister OK.
Thank you! Really great point…there has been some concrete evidence that models have actually gotten worse recently. Goes to show how important analyzing observed data is while an event is ongoing.
@@paradoxicalpoet1525 Im not calling an F4 meh i'm just saying that all the forecasters and meteorologists were treating it as it was "gonna be like bridge creek type of day"
@@ConvectiveChronicles
The idea that models are getting worse is really unnerving.
I'm really interested in meteorology...this really helps me understand alot about severe weather...Thank you...😎
Love to hear that! Thank you!
Great video, Trey! That was a wild night full of surprises. Fortunately, I've watched your videos long enough to read and understand what is happening on radar and knew right away when I saw the two cells SW of Moore that they would possibly merge over town. It was very quick and only took 5-10 min until the circulation really tightened up. Your meteorological analysis is beneficial while studying weather events as they happen. -Asanté
Thank you, Asanté! Yeah, I definitely didn’t love the look of those supercells over Moore…I had a feeling we might be in trouble, especially with the warm front nearby to provide some extra oomph.
This one really took me by suprise. I didnt chase that Saturday and actually went to sleep early. Woke up to reading news about the tornados striking all around at 2 am. I was anticipating this breakdown happening soon, thank you very much Trey! Sunday I was out on the squall line chasing the embedded supercell just southwest of Ardmore. The road network is terrible west of 35 and between Ardmore and Marietta. Ended up ran over by a weaker circulation just south of the main meso in the squall. I won't chase this side of OK after dark. I'll pack my things up until Spring!
Excellent! I knew as soon as this event occurred that it would make an excellent subject for a case study. Can’t wait to dive into this one. These types of events are my favorite to study, the ones where a potent environment that is conducive for significant tornadoes isn’t expected, yet materializes anyways.
Now I just want the May 6th case study and I’ll be satisfied. Thanks for your work as always Trey.
Thank you! Work on the May 6 case study resumes this week!
Thank ya man. I have kind of lost count of the night time oklahoma tornado events this year. We got lucky no fatalities.
Yeah, it’s been quite the stretch for nighttime tornadoes in Oklahoma this year.
I live in this area. Thanks for talking about this!
I would love a video about the Springfield, MA June 1st, 2011 EF3 tornado. I know it’s not the most interesting thing but EF3s in Massachusetts is a very rare event. Although western Massachusetts has a kind of mini tornado alley and I would love to hear your thoughts on why that may be
That event is on my list!
I really love these analysis videos. Especially this one where the threat did not initially seem as significant as it was; it really helps with understanding.
Thank you!
Great video once again Trey 😁👍
Thank you!
You hate to hear anything about "surprises", especially with night time naders 🌪. Thanks for the breakdown as always Trey. It almost makes me wonder, if you noticed this, why didn't others? 🤔 Looking at the pressure tongue indicating a warm front, the short wave.. I mean those are classic signs
I definitely thought something was suspicious, but I didn’t think it would come in the form of multiple discrete warm sector supercells. I thought the QLCS might get particularly ornery, with a potential for several QLCS spinups and some intense damaging winds, but sig tornadoes from discrete supercells (at least such a long duration threat for them) was unlikely.
I kind of laughed seeing that 00z Norman sounding but seeing how fast that environment recovered is just wild. Never seen anything quite like that.
Yeah, that was incredibly rapid improvement in the environment. Went from not even supporting thunderstorms to favoring significant tornadoes in just a few hours’ time.
Fantastic Video Man ❤
Thank you!
thanks for the vid!
good hot washup on a crazy weather weekend...
we had a pretty sporty squall line blow thru at rush hour yesterday (along with a surprise tornado watch?)...seemed to me the cloud base was almost dragging the ground with big fat rain drops screaming sideways.
thanks for putting this together...
2024 has been a wild year for weather so far
Yeah as I said earlier, this event was quite a surprise to see on the overnight shift on my downtime. As you said, there wasn't much to suggest we'd see a tornado outbreak of this level....SPC didn't expect this to do much either but this almost feels similar to the nocturnal tornado outbreak we saw earlier this year around the OKC/Norman area. Granted that was a little different set up but a good bit of that is similar to how this played out but that also was an event too that I think surprised people with how vigorous and how fast shit hit the fan like this one when stuff really began to pop off. It was fascinating seeing ABC 7 and News9s coverage of this cause you can tell I think even they were surprised how impressive some of the tornadoes and TDSs they were seeing pop up.
As you showed on the soundings, going into the evening it was mostly gonna be a squall line and the hodographs really weren't too impressive for a tornado event but man when that LLJ kicked in that changed the game and tons of low-level curvature in the hodographs and extremely impressive SRH and the EHI values if I remember too on the SPC mesoanaysis during the event were pretty high too. This pretty much just happened to be a worst case event where stuff got going at LITERALLY the worse time of the night when everyone was asleep too and these were powerful tornadoes.
Tell you the truth Trey, I was surprised there were that many chasers up and out chasing on this night cause even 1-3am is pretty late by chasing standards. I think the people that went out chasing this were mostly just casually checking stuff out but then they got way more than what they invested in. I was a bit surprised to that people were also able to see some of those tornadoes too cause a fair bit of them were buried in the rain but the handful of photos that came out from this event were stupidly impressive that the handful of chasers were in the right spot and right time to get anything from this. This was an impressive multi-day system overall.
That was a scary night especially since it was in such a high population area
Great analysis, Trey! With all of these "surprise" storms this year coming as a result of "nudging," would it even be possible to forecast these things? At the moment, it seems almost completely random. Is there any current research attempting to find evidence of ways to forecast such nudging effects?
Thank you! That’s a great question…I’m not sure we can forecast these localized storm interaction events well at this point. That’s probably the next frontier of this type of research; I’m not aware of any specific research that deals with actually forecasting storm interactions in advance. In my discussions with Cameron, he has mentioned that this is more applicable to nowcasting as storms are ongoing.
If you ever get to Lawton area, hit me up! -Blacktoof
I remember sitting in my Jacuzzi in my back yard that night here in North Texas somewhere around 10:30 pm and I remember it being very windy and seeing the LLJ absolutely ripping above my head northward and thinking to myself "man if the thermos were favorable right now, there'd be big trouble!"
Wow! Absolutely insane how fast that environment improved, after dark too! It’s just so fascinating how from a geographical standpoint how perfect the US is for robust severe weather. That’s something I always like thinking about.
Absolutely…it really is the perfect geographical setup for severe weather in the central part of the US.
Thank you so much trey sorry im super late!
another very good and informative video / there were sirens in Tulsa very early Saturday morning, however, nothing other than rain / the city has set records for yesterday and for the month at nearly 10 inches / somewhere in broken arrow There was 12 inches, that may have included October 30 storms / thank you again for a fantastic video
Thanks so much! It’s been a wild stretch, and it looks like we may have some more active weather on the way toward the end of this week into next.
What program do you use for watching the radar/velocity data?
RadarScope is what he using on some stuff...
RadarScope and the NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit…you can download the latter here: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wct/
What program are you using to view the archived radar data?
RadarScope and the NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit…you can download the latter here: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wct/
I remember watching that intense debris ball signature on max velocity's live stream, it was horrifying to see on a live stream
Definitely wasn't expecting to see a 70dbz debris ball on reflectivity that night.
Squall lines interacting with discrete cells like the Comanche cell actually led to two of NY's strongest tornadoes in the past 25 years, the Rome tornado earlier this year and the Mechanicville tornado in 1998. The Rome tornado was preliminarily rated EF3 (dropped to EF2 later on) and happened on a 2% TOR day, while Mechanicville occurred on a high risk day but most of the northern part of the risk (where it happened) failed to produce, a few homes it hit sustained borderline violent damage. It's a phenomenon that I believe should be studied a lot more; especially since other interactions between squall lines and prefrontal cells (like the Barnsdall tornado on 5/6) may destroy or weaken tornadoes rather than enhance them.
Yeah, there’s definitely mounting evidence that these supercell-squall line interactions are very important for inducing tornadogenesis.
Nice
3:48 *looks a little...sus*
2:23 that's only an EF-1? No shot.
No, that was EF3
@@ConvectiveChronicles oh ok. The timing of it being said messed with my brain.
Oklahoma stole all of Dixie’s tornadoes this year it seems
I don’t think anyone expected this. Maybe the next day but not at 1 in the morning
It was a bit surprising for sure
Ryan Hall and Max Velocity predicted this outbreak before it happened. I said, No it's November! It's not going to happen! Well, I got proven wrong and admitted I was wrong. I thought it wouldn't happen again until spring 2025.
There are NO tornado events that are UNDERWHELMING! No One; other than a storm chaser, wants a Tornado destroying everything in its path.
Congrats on the most uninformed response of the day. No storm chaser wants to see destruction…we all love tornadoes, but we never want to see them impact lives and property. Regarding this setup in particular, tornadic activity underperformed compared to expectations.