Russia's War Machine Is Peaking. Next Year, It Runs Out of Steam | Ep. 26 Dr. Jack Watling
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- Опубликовано: 27 июл 2024
- ➡️ PATREON: / decodinggeopolitics
Dr. Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Jack works closely with the British military on the development of concepts of operation, assessments of the future operating environment, and conducts operational analysis of contemporary conflicts.
In this conversation, we talked about two wars that Russia is currently waging: an overt one against Ukraine and a covert war against the West. Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon - and if you want to support what I'm doing, do consider becoming a supporter on Patreon as well.
0:00 - Intro
1:14 - Russia Is Compounding Advantages
4:55 - Ukrainian & Western Military Training
13:56 - When Will Russia Run Out of Troops and Equipment
22:53 - Russia-Ukraine Losses Ratio
26:51 - Theory of Victory for Ukraine
40:02 - Russian Kharkiv Offensive - A Failure?
42.49 - Ukraine's Biggest Problem?
45:42 - What Will Happen in 2024?
48:19 - Russia's Covert War Against the West
If you want to hear the second half of the interview and support the channel, you can become a supporter at: www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics
i thought they peaked in april 2022 when they were running out of missiles.
@@MetaView7Their missiles did peak. They cant really do assaults of that magnitude anymore.
This is the kind of conversation we want, with people who have accademic standards and professionalism.
Ukraine is fighting on behalf of the free world. We should provide them with all they require !
Damn right! Thank you Ukraine for stopping an extremely deranged man and his mindless drones from making it farther!!! I consider you as fighting for me too and i can't thank you enough for all that you are doing to stop this! I know there is much suffering there caused by this group, There is no doubt in my mind that if you had not stopped them, they would continue until we all spoke russian and chinese or all life ended on earth.
Yep! I think the same!!!
RUSI should start a YT Channel. They'd smash it.
You mean clueless privilidged kids? He is a clown twisting reality and painting it pink.
I'm with you 💯
PLEASE start dating your videos in the description. I’ve been skipping much of what you post lately because I often end up discovering it’s a repeat that seems like new. It is crucial for context and to understand what the guest knows in terms of developments on the front. Thanks!
Was about to request the same, asking for the date of the interview, as publishing date my or may not correspond to current events and situations on the ground.
These interviews are provide useful data as the situation is in constant flux....witness the current drone/missile campaign against refineries, air base, and air defenses.
@@thechancellor3715 So when is it from?
@@eugenmalatov5470 haven't a clue from the video
It says on there’s it was 19 hrs ago. Read underneath the title paragraph.its on every video.
Seems like this was from early May, before we saw any of the effects of the US aid supplies arrived and when the Northern front was looking difficult for Ukraine, when its now lost momentum and turned in Ukraines favour.
TLDR; Seems to skip that major part of Ukraine's unfavorable predicament is directly due to West's failure to provide appropriate and adequate weapons/munitions in a timely manner. Also, being forbidden to strikes many key russian targets. Only recently USA allowed strike in limited range to defend Kharkiv, but STILL forbids Ukraine to strike russian airfields with US weapons, which is where most of the devastating glide-bomb attacks on Ukraine originate. West needs to stop dicking around and provide Ukraine with all it needs, when it needs it and allow it to strike as it needs. If so, most of this interview would likely be moot.
Maximum accuracy with this comment.
Bullseye.
playing like we did in Vietnam
Exactly. The most intelligent thing Ukraine did was assemble the manufacturing of drones, Neptune missiles and other home made gear. I hope they can intensify that production.
Ukrainians have prove that they do not target civilians... crazy that they can't attack airfields from which glide bombs are coming and other important military relevant targets within Ukraine.
By limiting them the West is responsible for many Ukrainian deaths both civilian and military..
The first point is directly addressed at 47:38 with the same conclusion. Strike limitations are also addressed in the section on the Kharkiv offensive, but in my opinion not adequately so.
Very good conversation.
Really interesting to hear why it's better to have NATO trainers in Ukraine vs outside of it. I've never heard anyone break down 'why' it's a good thing, glad to hear it
It is easy. From Ukraine they cannot escape as easily as from the West to avoid the meat grinder.
@@TenylegMinekez-uc7co Hows the weather in Moscow Ivan?
@@mesquick Another NAFO armchair soldier. Go up from the basement and ask some cookies from your mom. BTW you could check the weather on the internet. As I'm not in Moscow, I don't know...
@@TenylegMinekez-uc7co Sorry, its ofcourse saint petersburg
@@lallare1844 Not even close (not Russian, from EU). Reported for bullying.
It's not just a cold shower - the water's freezing, and the math is bleak. We support Ukraine to the max now, or we end up having the same problems on NATO's eastern flank in a few year's time. Wake up, people!
We squandered that opportunity last year by sending our weapons stockpiles in piecemeal fashion and the Russians destroyed them all. We will never outproduce Russia in this current war now.
Russia isnt going to invade further into Europe though, just considering the logistics makes that impossible. Dont fall for the fearmongering, make peace and rebuild rather than weaken ourselves further continuing this war.
@@rogerc6533 Peace on Putin's terms now would be a deadly trap. Russia is now in a war economy mode, has effectively destroyed its civilian sector, and it is committed to weapons production. While Ukraine is willing and able to fight it should be supported in destroying those weapons. I live in Poland, and we know our Russian neighbors well. Any solemn undertakings made will be worthless, any guarantees given will be broken, and any "permanent peace" proposals will be the prelude to a new war, when their army has had the chance to re-group and re-arm. Logistics in European Russia are similar throughout the region, with not much difference between the approaches to Ukraine, Belarus or the Baltic area, so I'm not sure how Russia would be impeded here.
None of this is fear-mongering, it is just listening to Putin and what he plans for my country. If or when the time comes to resist those plans I hope we can succeed, with hopefully some help from our friends.
@@rogerc6533 'Make peace'? That sounds good. But, on whose terms? As Mr. Watling wisely said, the goal is a LASTING peace, with Ukraine remaining autonomous. He said that is only possible if Ukraine receives not only security guarantees from the west, but that they are more concrete than the Budapest memorandum that both the U.S. and UK failed to enforce when Russia seized Crimea. We all want peace. But freezing this conflict now amounts to just a delay tactic, allowing both sides to re-arm and prepare for the next round.
@@rogerc6533
Quite naive of you to assume Ukraine and the west would be "making peace" by making a deal in which Imperialist Russia is allowed to keep some or all of the territory it has invaded.
The last six times the west tried that strategy to an unprovoked Russian invasion into a nearby country the Russian dictatorship took that as a sign that the west was weak and so felt emboldened to launch another unprovoked imperialist invasion into a nearby country.
If the west lets Russia gain territory from its unprovoked imperialist invasion into Ukraine there is no reason to think that Russia won't behave in exactly the same way it behaved the last time the west tried that strategy.
Fake. Zero evidence that Russia wants to conquer all of Europe. Stop thinking everything is a repeat of WWII.
Please don't let down Ukraine after all this support already given!🙌🙌🙌After all these sufferings ukranian people really deserve peace and prosperity together with the West. ❤❤❤
Level of competence rarely seen in those discussions. Retired NATO captain here.
Hell of an interview. This is the first interview I’ve seen from anyone at RUSI besides Justin. Just as impressed. I appreciate the media push to get the word out.
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.)
Almighty God said
How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏
Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑
In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏
He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑
There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer.
IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️
Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑
The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐
Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑
If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️
What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪
If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏
From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ...
Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13)
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/RUclips! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
Very informative, professional and honest description of the war assessment. Thank you
I give you just one sentence: "Gun barrel production cannot keep up once canibalization ends"
But that's ok because shell production cannot keep up once the stocks have run dry, lol
We’re basing our current preparations on the enemy’s worst case scenario. What if they fix their production issues? What if they just import what they need from North Korea?
@@karabenomar”Russia will run out of missiles by the end of 2022”
Remember that one? You can file the Russia’s going to run out of gun barrels under the exact same place Jack, which is labeled ‘bullshit’.
Anyone who still believes these moronic statements about how rushes is gonna run out of this or that well they need to go and learn how to think because they don’t know how
Merlin!
@@triforcelink
Certainly difficult to hear the orcs still have the advantage over us, but it's necessary to listen and make changes
@@terrysky83 “the orcs” are winning and your arrogance and racism only help them. You aren’t about to succeed where Napoleon and Hitler failed. You clearly either don’t pay attention to the Frontline movements or you’re just delusional. The Ukrainians have not had an overall net advance since October 1 of last year. They are losing decisively by every single measure. Like Germany in summer 1918 they have already lost but can’t accept it.
At 20:00 he says "Russia is producing more tanks per year, than the British army is purchasing over the next decade." That comparison doesn't make any sense. First the British army is primarily naval and air rather than land-based. As a proportion of the budget, of course Russians are going to have more invested in tanks. Next, Russia is in a war, and has already militarized their country. The British army is not fighting. So the British are only replacing tanks based on modernization, and maintaining a base level of forces. Russia is replacing losses. So, of course, Russia is building a lot more. Russia is building 10 times the number of tanks as Britain next year. But the implication is that Russia is generating 10 British militaries worth of force. That's probably not what he meant, but that's the comparison that he made. That's comparing apples to aircraft carriers.
Russia is loosing far more tanks than they can produce.
It makes perfect sense.
The UK can no longer defend itself without American logistical enablement.
The navy isn't worth being called one, neither is the air force, and the army cannot field a single division
@@timthetiny7538 Britain has 10 nuclear submarines. 2 x 65,000 ton aircraft carriers. 107 4th generation active fighter aircraft (Eurofighter Typhoon)
@@timthetiny7538
I think you're conflating self-defense with expeditionary capabilities.
I think you're also ignoring the fact that Britain is part of a military alliance, which includes countries other than the US.
@@Camkitsune and none of them are relevant
oh no... they run out of ammo, rockets, soldiers, fuel.. now they run out of steam too?
Excellent interview, thank you.
This was a VERY IMPORTANT DISCUSSION! Thank you for bringing this out. I have heard these issues brought up so often but it seems that the support is going in circles.
Thanks for a long Video again. I like this longer Videos more then the 5 min Videos
I am really amazed by the number of experts who come to opposite conclusion on close to everything related to this war. This applies to battle front, economy, number of fallen soldiers and so on.
Depends who pays their bills ...
Ever heard of Russian maskirovk or there hybrid warfare doctrine? You need to understand that they are at war against west on there own ideology. Wheter west want it or not. So disinformation is in huge scale at the moment. They have hired people also from west to spread there agenda on eany means that can be used. There goal is not to show there advance but spread competition between western countries and especially to people whom education level is not so high that they could forme there own objektive solution on things. This is Russias hybrid warfare doctrine and has been for decades.
Can you list a bunch of examples?
@@georgschett801 suprice my comment has been deleted must be because it expoces there tactics and there style to operate in there hybride warfare doctrine. LMAO
@@georgschett801 But you need to rember the russian minded people are infiltrated deep in the western sociaty for decades now. And eaven if some one show them self as "western" military expert you need to always keep in mind that whom is paying there salery to spreading there so called "knowledge". There for you need the deep understanding about the subject. There for there missinformation operations sinks well in to the people whom has no understanding on those subject and can not chalenge that "knowledge" read misinformation they spread.
Outstanding conversation/analysis.
Excellent interview with an unusual level of depth in this topic that we don’t often see on YT talking heads, Thankyou.
That was top quality analysis from someone who made overt and obvious sense in all regards.
Unfortunately the title of the video is somewhere hopeful and not an accurate description of that which was said
Thia guy reminds me that if populism gave way to realism, we would be kicking major asses.
Just in general liberalism is a cancer that makes us weak and causes us to go around making other powerful nations like Russia our enemies in the first place. Populism would make us both stronger yet more peaceful.
A lot of so called realist thinkers advocate for peace in Ukraine by butchering it and leaving it to russia. Realism isnt the solution to our current geopolitical problems. There is not one politcal ideology that would fix those problems. More a combined way of different ideologys might be the answer to those complex problems.
Thank you for this interview. Dr Watling is always worth watching.
Very interesting conversation. Thank you.
broseph, i had newspapers telling me they had peaked 4 weeks after the start of the invasion and would run out of steam within months. then it was said they were done when they retreated from kherson. then it was said they exhausted themselves in bakhmut and that they'd lose in 2023. now nobody is even daring to say they will lose in 2024. so let's play the f16 card and see what happens. what other card do you have left up your sleeve after that? i mean we started with javelins and went from nato MBTs to aircraft. come november, things will get interesting one way or another.
What other card do you have left up your sleeve after this? - Scale card of course, as well as permission to hit the territory of the Russian Federation, and there are more modern models of equipment like the F 35, they are not even talking about this yet but they exist.
Jack Watling and RUSI more generally are always worth listening to.
Completely other league than this Jake Broe clown
Sure, if u like to get bulshited.
The most informativ interview on the state of this conflict I have seen this year, by a margin.
Thx for that. Plz come back to Dr. Watling.
Agree 💯
I don't see it this way. I follow the analytics of the Conflict Intelligence Team and they have very different estimates on equipment and Russia recruitment. I feel like all the analytics from the West take numbers that russian government provides as truth and make their conclusions based on their lies.
Then u watching the wrong things.
He never mentioned when Russia’s sovereign wealth fund will run dry, and the limitations that the west has placed on Ukraine’s use of western weapons.
17:44 I tried explaining the tyranny of much higher numbers to somebody once, this is one of the reasons why I have been advocating for a more proactive policy of encouraging Russians to leave Russia voluntarily. Provide more visas not less, provide better access to job options not less, and I don't believe it should be limited only to the high value individual, this should in fact be aimed at all economic levels and education levels in Russia. The United States alone should be able to absorb not just all the immigrants who are on the border already, but an equivalent of 10% of the population of the United States right out of Russia... This type of drain, would be a strategic weapon that should be applied, and it should be made understood to the populations within the different countries as to not only why it's being done but how it will benefit them. Change the narrative from "they're taking my job" which is untrue, to one that demonstrates the benefits the extra workforce would have for them. And explain how immigration almost always precedes an extended major economic boom and always precedes an economic boom, therefore creating more jobs that every single citizen benefits from
We need to fight intelligently with our strongest weapons, which happens to be our open society and more importantly are particularly rich economic and dynamic society, as well as these ancilliary weapons which include armed forces as well as the levers of economic power. The weakness of Russia more than anything other than corruption and maybe even more than that, is its demographics and that is what we should be strategically attacking at every turn.
Ukraine might be the face of our fight against authoritarianism, or simply tyranny, but it is not the only front, and the best way to help Ukraine is to weaken Russia and the best way to help the world and specific spots like Taiwan, is to weaken Russia. More importantly to win, full stop win, against Russian decisively. Make all other authoritarians and anti westerners, think twice about crossing that line again and yes I'm looking at the second most powerful country yet in the world at this time China, as well as looking at the future most powerful country in the world... India
Excellent once again, but very, very sobering. Everyday Ukrainians are dying while our western leaders avoid their responsibilities. Could you do a session just on American and German escalation management and its failure to successfully thwart the Russians? Dr. Gustav Gressel of the European Resilience Initiative Center would be a good candidate to interview!
Agree, one of the best guys, Kofman, Watling, Gressel, Reisner, Tytelman ... the most sobering but also most realistic ones
@@eugenmalatov5470 I am not aware of Eisner and Tytelman. Who are they associated with?
@@barrylane1055 Reisner = Austrian Army, Tytelman = french expert, editor of Air Cosmos magazine
@@barrylane1055 Military & History also very good albeit an amateur expert, not a professional
@@barrylane1055 what other non German, non anglo experts do you know?
Great interview
This was one of the, if not the best, exposure of what is really happening. Very good!
Much better than expected. Dr Jack Watling clearly articulated answers to almost every question I had about the war in Ukraine. Well done!
Great realistic and sober analysis.
He didn't explain why, by next year, Russia will slow down industrial production? What's the proof or evidence for that?
It can't be getting better for russia if they're losing thirteen hundred soldiers a day Have had to resort to motorcycles golf carts and scooby doo vans
Makes a lot of sense. Thank you!
Kharkiv did draw in ukr reserves but it also used 30-40,000 Russian forces away from the front they are trying to expand.
This is one of the most informative conversation I have watched on Ukraine. We need to hear more from Jack Watling.
Assuming Russia will have an advantage until the end of this year and into next completely ignores the impact of a dramatic increase in Ukr AD Patriot and other AD systems coming in along with the F16s which will arrive soon after that. Also the systematic targetting of Rus AD systems taking many offline should be considered as well. What has allowed Rus to advance has been glide bombs which will evaporate if Ukr gets enough AD systems which it looks like they will. Throw in F16s which will allow Ukr to get local air superiority even for brief periods near the front line… we will see the consequences of that.
Excellent interview
Why will Russia run out of steam? They just became a high income nation according to the world bank, and in PPP terms, their economy is huge.
Thanks 🙏🏻
Nice conversation!
When was this video made? 2023? 2024? When ?
1990!!!1111111
Very interesting conversation.
We've often heard the phrase quantity is a quality of its own. And Russia certainly has the quantity game going. You beat quantity by quality of tactics. Technology and training. Definitely takes longer than we like but that's where we are
Something important to know, for all who interested in history and/or support Ukraine:
Rus' ought not to be confused with modern “Russia”, which derives its name from the Rus' but historically is a completely different state, which almost all its existence was at war with the Rus'.
Just like the Holy Roman Empire was actually Germany, “Russia” is actually Muscovy, despite their best attempts to convince everybody otherwise.
Its name “Russia" received only in the 18th century, when Peter I simply changed Muscovy’s name into the “All Russian Empire” (Russia originates from Rosia, name used by the Greek Orthodox Clergy in regards to Rus')
Under the reign of Cathrine II Muscovites where even punished for continuing to identify as Muscovites, and were forced to call themselves Russian.
Lands that Russia (Muscovy) claims were part of the original Rus', but actually weren't, are Novgorod, Suzdal, and Ryazan, since in historical texts of XI-XII centuries they are mentioned as separate entities from Rus'. They can be considered parts of extended Rus', although their culture was distinct from main Rus'.
In 1493, Muscovite duke Ivan III appointed himself to be the Great Ruler of All Rus'. No other kings acknowledged that. From that point on Muscovy started to make false claims on Rus' ownership.
“Russia” is an offshoot of Ukraine and not the other way round, despite what Soviet and Russian (Muscovite) historians have been trying to say for years. A Slavicised Finnic, then later, Mongolized offshoot. Kyiv was a developed cultured capital when Moscow was just another swamp village.
Moreover, in the Italian sources of the 15th century it is likewise mentioned, that Russia is bordered by Poland to the west, Lithuania and Livonia to the north, and *Muscovy* to the east, further proving that Russia historically speaking, is an exonym of Ukraine, that was stolen by Muscovy.
Germany used to call itself the Holy Roman Empire, that didn’t mean they became the Romans, and all of a sudden had a right to claim whole of Italy and its history, but yet, that’s exactly what Russia (Muscovy) did in regards to Rus'-Ukraine, which is a horrible injustice!
Dr. Watling makes an important point about attrition. Most people would say that the Case Yellow or Operation Barbarossa were incredible successes for maneuver warfare. However, six months of "victory" largely wore out the German army in Russia, and Germany sustained over 156,000 casualties to defeat France. Encircling and outflanking an enemy gets people killed, and then getting encircled people to stop fighting is also costly. The 1941 encirclement of Kiev, for example, cost the Germans over 128,000 casualties, despite removing more than 700,000 Soviet soldiers from the USSR order of battle. We are seeing the Ukrainians generally preferring to push Russian troops to retreat rather than cut them off, because retreat usually costs fewer friendly lives than annihilating a pocket of enemy soldiers.
NATO, are you listening? World leaders, are you getting this information in your daily intelligence briefing? Because I feel more in the loop than our political leaders at this point.
Very interesting interview, I first listened to it on Patreon.
Quite good analysis. 1) the ukranians are under trained vs western starndards BUT the ukranians understand far better this war than the west does. 2) many commanders dont understand the western training vs what they need, and 3) the ukranians train within the unit not in a depot like most western armies that makes their soldiers more specialized BUT also creates different quality of recruits among the army (ie. 47th brigade troopers have nothing in resemblance with 3rd Assault Brigade)
Excellent and thought provoking at variance to a lot of other Ukraine war opinion/ input.
Russia is using golf carts scooby doo.Vans and motorcycles cause they don't have armored personnel carriers
No, Ukraine has a lot of drones and these vehicles are used to limit drones effectiveness.
He seems more interested in shaming the British army about tank production than actually describing exactly how many tanks Russia produces.
The thing is we cant really know because the offical numbers of the russien DOD cant be trusted.
Very good and rational discussion. Thx.
A much better guest than last week.
Very good interview - best analysis of the state of the conflict by a long shot. But I agree with another commentator - please give some indication of date of interview and thanks again.
This assessment seems realistic to me.
I don't envision any NATO countries giving Ukraine security guarantees in the next 18 months that would have a material impact on Russia's calculus for continuing the war.
I don't envision Ukraine's economy suddenly growing on a double-digit percentage basis for the next couple years relative to prewar levels, and this means that Ukraine will be pressed to rebuild damaged infrastructure or massively scale up military equipment.
I don't envision the current Ukrainian army having a significant strategic breakthrough on any front lines that they could exploit to recapture any significant bits of territory in 2024-2025.
I don't envision the Russian military running into equipment shortages that would cause their military to suddenly collapse before 2026.
And therefore, I believe that to win this war, Ukraine needs to not only continue holding lines and inflicting asymmetric attrition, they need to double-down on deep strikes into Russia that could potentially change the game.
Ukraine needs to develop new AI drone capabilities in order to gain an advantage. Maybe develop drones that can follow Russian rail lines autonomously and target+destroy Russian fuel trains. Continue to launch deep strikes on Russian airfields and oil refining. Ideally, develop domestic cruise missiles that can destroy Russia's military industrial capacity...
Ukraine needs to launch strikes inside Russia that are deeply painful to Russia's military industry and economy in general. Russian oligarchs need to believe that continuing the war is so damaging to their businesses that the war needs to end. People in Russia need to become so frustrated with the economic pain caused by the war that they start to revolt.
If Poland and the Baltic countries want to see the war end then they should give Ukraine financial and industrial assistance to inflict crippling strikes on key Russian industries and infrastructure. Maybe the nordic countries would help with this too. I don't think the USA, Germany, France or the UK are serious about taking steps to ensure that Ukraine defeats Russia's military. They will help Ukraine hold the lines, but that's all. Therefore, for Ukraine to truly defeat Russia, central and northern European countries will have to step up. Develop truly autonomous strike drones with capabilities to autonomously target Russia's most critical, expensive and irreplaceable military and industrial assets.
As the guest said, Western deterrence won't be much of a factor until the west rationalizes and rebuilds our supply chains. I forget what number he said, but I'm thinking this is five years out. That's actually pretty fast as these things normally go. Meanwhile, most of the story is Ukrainian human capital.
super informative , honest and important episode
Any peace, without NATO membership for Ukraine, simply will be a chance for Russia to rearm and raise a new army, so that they can win the rest of Ukraine.
I am only an interested citizen, but I always find hard to understand why ther is still only talk about expanding the Western defence-industrial capacity. Shouldn't that have been put in action 2 years ago?
Why didn’t you ask him when Russia will run out of money to spend on manufacturing new military equipment?
And what about the limitations that the west has placed on the use of the weapons that they’ve provided?
Because everyone knows Russia and the nations of the world operate on Fiat currency. And this means they can simply print the money they need to buy weapons. And their people will suffer through inflation. And that is just the way John Maynard Keynes intended.
Outstanding chat. My thanks to the two of you.
In future, I'd love to hear from someone about the health of Russia's economy, the part of it not directly associated with the war effort. What kind of an economy is it turning into? Also about impacts on the country's wealth and financial soundness.
Very good interview. Dr. Watling strikes me as objective to the extent possible. Interestingly, the interview did not mention direct combat involvement of NATO countries in Ukraine, which I find increasingly likely.
very well done
Thank you
Dope lighting
not sure what to make of his take on Russia building more tanks than the British will be buying ???
when asked to clarify; 1500 tanks per year of which 150-200 are new tanks i.e. 1300 refurbished
refurbishment can't carry on for ever but if I understand his inferences there's only a maximum of 2 years worth of refurbishments left
i.e. 2500 old tanks still in storage still to be refurbished
They are losing approx 9 per day
would love to know the figures for artillery
Losing 20,000 convict soldiers is still losing 20,000 soldiers. Soldiers that could have been used elsewhere. Also I think with its meatwave tactics - Russia has amply demonstrated that has little care for the lives of its soldiers, convict or otherwise. The Bhakmut campaign finished off Vagner, which had been Russias most effective unit. Vagner has ceased to be a force in Ukraine since Bhakmut.
Never mind the sociological effects of the approach to conflict the amount of PTSD alcoholism that’s going to prevail within Russia after this we’ve already seen crime rates increased significantly I think murders of doubled or something like that
have you an actuall video of such "meatwave" attack by Russians? since everything in this war is already filmed by the drones, there must be at least something filmed, but i havent seen a single one yet, maybe you have some example of that? please share...or shut the fuck up
Russia does care for the lives of it soldiers which is why it would rather let Fabs, drones and artillery do most of the fighting for it. Sadly capturing cities and strongpoints will inevitably result in heavy losses, America would suffer similar casualties to Russia if it had to fight Ukraine.
As research shows, ptsd does not occur if a person believes that he is fighting for justice. PTSD is a disease of wars such as Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq where soldiers did not understand what they were fighting for.
@@milaro222 and you think soldiers being sacrificed for absolutely nothing consists of a valiant cause?
It peaked two and a half years ago, is that when this interview was done?
Awesome 😊
To understand the current US-NATO war against Russia over Ukraine, it is critical to review the background and implications of the 2014 far-right coup in Kiev, which overthrew the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. The coup was openly supported by US and European imperialism and implemented primarily by far-right shock troops, such as the Right Sector and the neo-Nazi Svoboda Party.
The coup was the temporary culmination of long-standing efforts by US imperialism to install a puppet regime on the borders of Russia and brought the world a major step closer to a war between the largest nuclear powers, the US and Russia. The regime change prompted the outbreak of an ongoing civil war in the east of Ukraine, between Russian-backed separatists and the US-backed Ukrainian army, that has claimed the lives of tens of thousands and displaced millions.
Bs vatnik
Didn’t Russia run out of missiles in April 2022 ?
In terms of equipment production the head of the Russian military industrial complex recently stated that the total number of people required is 600,000 of which 450,000 are actual production based. He stated that he is 160,000 personnel short of the 450,000 therefore about 27% so the production is going to taper off. On top of this of course are materials and parts etc so behind the scenes things are not to good. I highly recommend you visit the channel Inside Russia to get good inside information on many aspects of the Russian society etc.
You are pretty clueless
South Korea estimates that up 3 million in defense industry could be available when Russia and North Korea will work together by 2025.How much and in which quality the weapons will be is the question mark
Plus the workforce in China for dualuse goods is even above 100 million
@@goenzoy712howitzers and tanks are hardly 'dual use' weapons. Golf carts however....
@@PawelLeszczynskipav Whatever it is my point was to believe in running out of steam is highly naive but off course interests of Russia , North Korea and China are aligned but not identical
China does have a complete different mindset .
@@goenzoy712 the closer N Korea's cooperation with russia, the closer S Korea's cooperation with Ukraine. No free lunch I'm afraid. The latest round of sanctions on Chinese banks really shows how eager they are to help their comrade in need as soon as there is a slightest bit of risk involved.
@@PawelLeszczynskipav South Korea doesn't have much interest on Ukraine .They are only reconsider if their strict policy is the right way forward
"They will still produce 2 British Army's worth of tanks per year" just goes to show how pathetically small the British Army's tank force is. It's almost as if this happened 85 years ago......
Yeah that's not a good metric at all. The British have one of the worst tank production quantities of any major modern country in the world.
How big should Britain's tank force be? Where would they be deployed? It's better to spend the limited defence budget in areas that will provide the most benefit.
Exactly. A serious conversation would involve evaluating how many tanks Russia loses each average day, let's say 10, and how many new tanks they can produce now, let's say 1,3, and how many they can refurbish per day, let's say 8, and when they will end the stocks, let's say in 18 months, and then how many new tanks will be produced once all the productive resources go toward new tanks, let's say 3. By the same token, one should see how many tanks and howitzers is Ukraine producing, etc. If one says that Russia produces many times more tanks than the UK, this is a totally irrelevant information, as the UK is not losing 10 tanks per day, and is not involved in this war. It really is a very stupid comparison, which gives no information whatsoever. Thumbs down to this video for the very poor quality of discussion.
@@uffa00001 I don't believe the intent was a direct comparison in tank production but instead to highlight that that Russia's ability to produce new tanks is still very high.
@@_Unlukey The intent was certainly not to say anything meaningful. Russia loses around 10 tanks per day. If they only produce 2 tanks per day, when they exhaust the old stocks they will be fighting with a huge lack of tanks. The fact that the UK produces 0,001 or 0,1 tanks per day is totally irrelevant to the situation in this war. Russian production can seem huge if compared with UK production, and can still be minuscule if compared with Russian loss rate in tanks. If anything, Russian production should be compared to Ukrainian production, which is also much superior to UK's production.
A review of Kaigun would be good. I have just finished it and really enjoyed it.
I listened to this with great interest, but I'm not convinced about the quality of the data regarding Russian hardware, especially given the primary source is very often Russian. In particular, claims are made about Russian tank and armored vehicle production which turn out to be units taken from the Soviet era stockpile and then put through a refurbishment/modernisation process. In particular it seems Russia makes precious few brand new (T90M) tanks. If they were, they'd be showing up at the front. Also Russia is getting ahead with recruitment over losses, but frustratingly (for Putin) slowly. What we really should be paying more attention to is the impending exhaustion of Russia's stockpile of artillery. At the present average loss rate of 1,500 per month, Russia has months left, not years. I'd like to see a reliable expert opinion on whether for instance, Russia can make new barrels in any quantity.
Early in this, sounds similar to the " Repple Depot" the US had in WW2. piecemeal replacements rather than whole units pulled off and refitted.
Though better than American Civil War. Create new units, send them in
This is the best video I’ve seen in months: great information..and this dude knows his stuff 👍 “Attrition theory is dangerous”. Truth right there. You cannot just keep throwing equipment at them if they cannot prosecute the war successfully.
This guy is good. He knows how this going to end.
What date did this interview take place?
Looks like it was posted 6/25
@@skippy9659 6/22 on Patreon
This analysis is BS Russia fast tracks its soldiers with two weeks training, front line soldiers have no water, food or ammunition...
It always starts with "advisors".
Whilst Jack Watling’s expertise is overwhelming and undisputed, I wonder if his analysis also includes the state of Russian finances? It appears that they are in a serious state as reported by Joe Bloggs “Russia Running Out of Reserves…”, whose source was Vladimir Milov “The Russian Economy: still standing, but Stuck”. The liquidity portion of the National Wealth Fund is starting to run out and is currently looking to run out in 6 months. The planned budget deficit for 2024 has been set at 10.7 trillion roubles and includes an expected federal budget deficit of RUR 1.6 trillion or 33% of the remaining NWF liquidity, but 40% of that was spent in the first 3 months. “This poses a serious threat to Putin’s ability to continue funding the war”.
Please note this was a serious info dump, so I may not have got all the details absolutely correct, but you have the sources above.
Konstantin samiliov reports the same
Russia is self sufficient in almost every regard, has all the natural resources theyd need and can fill in any gaps with trade with China. Their economic performance in the global western market is irrelevant.
Dr W…. Clear concise accurate… moreover so pleasant to hear your pronunciation quite close to native Russian-Ukr language.
Excellent assessment sir
What I have noticed is that when the Russians have a really big push all it does is speed up their loss rate. So they lose say 2000 men in two days instead of 6 weeks. And tank attacks have a nearly 100% loss rate: they go out but almost none come back. What I'm leading up to is that's why we see penny-packet formations in the assault - just a few tanks, just a few APCs. And I don't think that's a winning strategy.
I hope historians can shed some light on this madness in the future. As for now, we can only speculate on why they keep throwing their army away:
It might be for political reasons, keep gaining territory to feed the narrative of Russia being unstoppable.
It probably has something to do with the way successes and losses are being communicated up the chain of command, aka blatant lies to please your superiors. It's absolutely endemic in Russian culture and inevitably leads to stupid decisions.
And finally, lives aren't worth much in Russia. Especially when it's the lives of some poor colonized blokes...
In the end, Russia won't run out of men to sacrifice, but meat waves won't win the war against Ukraine armed with plenty of artillery and drones. Not only is it not a winning strategy, it's a losing strategy. I don't think Putin is going to relent, though. He is committed and this will end in catastrophe for Russia.
but that's based on numbers that are really not verified - losses are high, but as time has gone on, we've found out they are exaggerated
@@brianhammer5107 Not really, in fact most estimates of Russian losses tend to agree on the circa 500K+ casualty figures
@@user-aero68 NO, THEY DON'T - these have been shown to be ENORMOUSLY exaggerated
Zelensky told us Ukraine only list 38,000 men and Russia over 500,000. Yet it's Ukraine that's running out of manpower. Forcefully conscripting people off the streets.
I haven't read a single word about the progress of the recruitment drive. Is there any information, any encouraging information?
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.)
Almighty God said
How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏
Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑
In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏
He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑
There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer.
IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️
Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑
The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐
Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑
If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️
What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪
If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏
From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ...
Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13)
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/RUclips! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
The most pessimistic view I have heard from an expert and if he is erring on the negative side, it would be because he wants Western governments to do more.
excellent information ..... talking about the military situation he is giving a very clear picture .... taking into account the economic side, the oil refineries are getting bombed by Zelensky so a very big money income for Russia is coming to a stop .... together with the sanctions and the lost of skilled man power because the western engineers left Russia, plus many Russian high end computer and industrial engineering people left the country in 2022, their long term option is not looking good. Russia will slide back into a state like N. Korea.
Next year russia will exceed the number of casualties of america lost in the civil war
I’d like to hear if there is an insight into the mindset of average Ukrainians aged 18-30 about volunteering for the war that may go on for years. So far I haven’t heard that they are like Americans after Pearl Harbor who volunteered in droves. On average, are they willing to fight for their country?
Interesting interview,fair call on some of the information but not all,too many edits make it difficult too watch,just play the full live stream.
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.)
Almighty God said
How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏
Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑
In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏
He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑
There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer.
IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️
Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑
The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐
Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑
If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️
What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪
If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏
From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ...
Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13)
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/RUclips! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
I haven't heard anyone mention the genocide that the soviets tried on Ukraine after WW2 as a reason for them to use particular tactics ( Ukraine). I think even if Ukraine was captured they would fight on, especially with all the refugees coming of fighting age as the war moves on safely in other countries.
Thank you for some real information. Too much in this space, is opinion only😊It seems that maths and statistical analysis are way more important in assessing the state of play.
I had a hunch Russia is fighting because they had a large supply of arms left over from the USSR. It’s the sunk cost fallacy. Once that’s used up, they may be a bit more cooperative.
What can Ukraine do to speed up the day Russia is more amenable to a genuine peace? Strike weapons factories? More strikes on refineries? I was thinking cutting supply lines to the front lines will starve the front enough they will collapse. But it looks like that’s hard to do.
date of the interview?
6/25 I think
We haven't heard this for the last 2 years.
I can not begin to diagnose the fundamental flaws in this person's analysis. We went from 1,500 tanks per year to 150 in the same sentence.
We already know that Russia is pulling from decrepit Soviet stockpiles. These supplies have been cannibalized for decades and can barely perform on the battlefield, with no modern technology, no night vision, and constant breakdowns.
How can you promote yourself as an expert and not comprehend the significance of seeing Chinese motorcycles and even SCOOTERS deployed in active measures?
In 2-1/2 years, the Russian army has managed to gain about 25km, while Ukraine was receiving almost no support.
Russia also managed to take anywhere from 300,000 to half a MILLION casualties. They will conscript more. An almost endless supply of new Russian graves.
But equipment is being used up. They are relying on Glide Bombs to cause civilian casualties and break Ukrainian spirit. But soon, Ukraine will have some air defenses.
Meanwhile, Russia is running out of money. There are no men to maintain infrastructure. Inflation is going to double. Gas prices have gone up about 35%.
In a war of attrition, Russia is racing towards internal collapse.
Putin is desperate. With support, Ukraine is going to win this war.
This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Analysis is crap.
Interesting. Clearly Russia can be defeated if Ukraine is supported for as long as necessary and the west continues to offer to train large numbers of Ukrainian troops behind the lines - with as much input from Ukraine as possible to make the troops we turn out suitable for deployment as replacements - rather than having to form little NATO-clone units without the assets that NATO troops are taught to expect.
Good summary