Seth Klarman's Warning for "The Everything Bubble"
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- Опубликовано: 12 июн 2024
- Seth Klarman (CEO of the Baupost group and author of 'Margin of Safety') has broken his silence. Boston's greatest ever investor has warned we're currently facing an 'everything bubble', and in his recent CNBC interview, Seth explains how to invest in this challenging time.
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 The Everything Bubble
1:58 The Rise of Speculative Assets
4:20 How to Think About the Market Now
6:10 How to Find Stocks
9:40 Valuing Stocks
12:50 Opportunities Still Exist
DISCLAIMER:
Neither New Money or Brandon van der Kolk are financial advisers. The information provided in this video is for general information only and should not be taken as professional advice. There are risks involved with stock market investing and consumers should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking advice from an accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional. Consumers should always research companies individually and define a strategy before making decisions. Brandon van der Kolk and New Money are not liable for any loss incurred, arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided by this video.
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Who's going to be the first one to spot the typo in the video?
If my video loads that is 😢
mote!
What's my prize :P
moat i/o mote
Brookfield is Canadian not U.S.
0:00: 📈 Seth Klam warns of an everything bubble caused by low interest rates and rampant speculation in various asset classes.
2:58: 💡 The dangers of speculation and the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in an uncertain market environment.
6:08: 📈 Individual investors need to find an edge to outperform in the current market environment.
9:02: 📈 Finding opportunities in less interesting markets and investing in growth at a reasonable price are key in current market conditions.
12:00: ✅ The speaker discusses the importance of analyzing businesses and finding opportunities in the stock market.
Recap by Tammy AI
From 1983 to 2008 his hedge fund returned 16.5% a year, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 6% a year.
Mad respect to this man.
From 2009-2023 it did negative 6% pa underperforming the index which quadrupled
During a bear market, the headlines will focus on negative news, whether it's declining economic growth, geopolitical upheaval, cultural and legal turmoil, or some combination of all three. I listened to a podcast of someone that grew his reserve from $120k to almost $460k during this Red season, can you share tips on how to make such aggressive proceeds in short periods?
The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner.
Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K so far, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
.Lindamarie Kristine Anest. You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
I’m confident the current market has an equal possibility of making high-value gains or losses, so I'm cautious with my selections; but, I heard that a trader made over $850k in this market, and I could really need ideas on how to achieve similar profits.
Investors should exercise prudence when it comes to their exposure, especially during periods of inflation, and be suspicious of new purchases. Such large yields in current recession are only possible with the help of a competent or trustworthy counsel.
I agree, before the pandemic got real serious, I used to handle all my investment and I was pretty good at it, fast forward to post-pandemic and my-portfolio is steady in the red with profit rate down to the lowest, that's when I touched-base with a coach I saw featured on business week, who restructured my portfolio and over the last couple years, I've made over $650k from initially $210K
I've been looking at comparable opportunities in the current market because I know a lot of people who made fortunes from the Dotcom crash and the 2008 crash. Could this consultant who helps you be of any assistance?
You might research potential candidates and keep a look out for those with clever methods that can help you grow your portfolio gradually and steadily. Carol Pasol Lewis is my FA. She is knowledgeable and accommodating to your needs. establish her identity
Taking early notes from Warren as to the importance of sound asset diversification and risk management It can’t be overstated. I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $300K for sometime now, I would greatly appreciate any other suggestions.
Each strategy carries its own set of pros and cons and picking the right one depends on your specific financial goals, but in order to execute such effective decisions, it must be through a skilled practitioner.
@@Shultz4334 Very true. Despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately $950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with *Theresa Maria Kost* and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
I am experiencing one of the most challenging phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies... How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge
who is this individual guiding you?
I currently have 4500 shares of SCHD! My goal is 5k shares. This is my retirement plan!! My portfolio consists of 200 voo 200 vug 150 vgt 4500 SCHD! Is the future bright or not?
Bother less and enhjoy the time you have left.
the size of your retirement portfolio will overwhelmingly be a function of the performance of the stock and bond markets between now and when you start withdrawing from it.
You need a third party to help you out. A financial planner or accountant can run through your figures, including your projected income and expenditures when you retire, along with your retirement goals, your emergency fund and any other strategies you need to put in place for such things as long-term care
@@ClaudiaRom I have seen a lot about FAs and actually want to consult some pro. How did you go about it? Is yours any good?
@@benalfredo I have saved myself from all the hassle that the chaotic market causes. These days the best way to come into the market space is seeking guidance, due to side hustles i can’t handle my portfolio so i just work with LOREN LENA WALKER, a FA i came across via a recommendation from one of these RUclips retirement coaches.
It’s been smooth since then. Cliche as it may I have made a mark up of 70% in profits investing 350k under her. It helps not to be worried about your portfolio every minute of the day.
thank you for providing subtitles for when CNBC guests are speaking, this is invalueable
So there was an everything bubble....a year ago....hard to say that is still the case now though
Yup, this comment I will agree with.
I’ve seen videos for at least 6 years claiming the everything bubble.
I don’t deny we’re in one.
When it pops it will be massive.
All DCF model use the 10y treasury as the bench mark. If your treasury yield rise 500 basis point, you will commend a higher yield on the stock market. In reality, PE ratio has barely budge. Most of the stock market is down from last year except the large s&p 500 stock. We are in a bubble of `buy the s&p 500 it's safe` while the large cap stock PE ratio exploded.
@@jeremielachance6125 yes large caps have risen quite a bit, definitely an isolated region of the market. People fleeing to big "safe" names to park their cash. Definitely isn't an "everything" bubble though. Many companies I have looked at ("value") have very very cheap historical PE ratios... particularly over the last 6 months there have been some ludicrous bargains. During high inflation the GDP component of the buffet indicator can warp the result... It artificially boosts GDP leading to a "crash" of the buffet indicator. Seems the same thing happened in the 1970s-80s. Anyway, I still think there is plenty of opportunity - essentially his point in the video boils down to: look for value. xD
If you scream bubble for long enough you'll eventually be right. 😂
If people keep listening to the bubble talk, you eventually do nothing and wait. This narrative is the same as 2012, 2015, 2021 etc. Even in the 1990s we heard similar talk. In the 1980s, the same sort of people predicted a depression
Bears are getting btfod it's not funny anymore.
😅 You're on point here. I missed the recent rally listening to these. I expect a correction but not a bubble crash.
@@shayjohnson5830everyone is trained now to buy when prices drop so it’s hard to imagine any kind of correction going hard enough or lasting long enough to qualify as a crash or depression anymore, there’s just too much money circulating and too many value investors primed and ready to pounce at the first sigh of opportunity, which invariably drives the prices back up again. The days of no one’s buying are gone.
It’s funny that people cheer on the Fed when it is dovish. Conversely, they fight it tooth and nail when the Fed tightens. Classic FOMO. The Fed wasn’t tightening to the same degree in 2012, 2015, 2021 or 1980. Corporate bankruptcies and bank failures are rising. Inflation is a bigger threat than a recession is right now. Leading economic indicators are declining. Treasuries pay 2/3 of the average yearly stock returns with far lesser risk.
Very true
Well researched, scripted and narrated. I much prefer this type of content over "Yo, whazzup?" ad-libbing. Thumbs up. 👍
Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
@@StephanieWilliam-ex6yt hahahaha, put your money where your mouth is. Are you buying puts, selling calls? Or you just talk sht on internet?
Absolutely excellent video as usual! Keep up the good work!
Is it an everything bubble or is it hyperinflation of the currency? Literally everything else becomes more valuable as governments abuse and debase their currencies, usually through massive amounts of debt creation, and they are getting really creative with all the different forms of debt creation. I have been hearing about this everything bubble since 2017. I follow all these bearish youtube channels for years now that everything is going to collapse and right when it feels like it is going to collapse the FED and government swoops in and starts printing and cutting interest rates and creating policies overnight to bail things out, like suspending student loan repayments, PPP loan program, etc. When this crisis comes they will do it all over again and even bigger. They will create 10s of trillions of dollars in less than a year, because debt ponzi schemes require ever greater amounts of money printing to prevent it all from collapsing.
Buddy, that isn’t how any of that works. You need to quit hyperventilating over your 10th grade understanding of macroeconomics.
A Hindenburg moment that affects derivatives and the financial system may occur if the US Treasury market collapses. The $14.8 trillion U.S. Treasury market is becoming increasingly illiquid, and Bank of America warned that this might affect other financial markets.
There are many possibilities to make high profits, especially in this poor market, but these complex transactions can only be executed by seasoned market specialists.
I fully agree, which is why I appreciate handing the authority to make daily decisions to an investment coach. It is nearly impossible for them to underperform given their specialized knowledge and training, as well as the fact that each and every one of their abilities is focused on harnessing risk for its asymmetrical potential and restricting it as a buffer against certain negative developments. I've been working with an investing coach for more than two years, and throughout that time I've made over a million dollars.
@@harod033 I only had to type her full name into Google to find her webpage. It seems intriguing thus far. I'll call her on the date we agreed upon, and I'll let you know how it went. Thanks
@@patrickperez7387 A financial counselor named "RUTH LORALANN BRENNAN" was mentioned in a CNBC show, so I set out to discover her. For the stocks I monitor, she has subsequently given me entry and exit points. If you need guidance, you may look her up online.
@@harod033 I can understand why Ruth is so busy because she has impressive credentials and a terrific resume. But I still set up a meeting with her.
I must say you are an inspirational person because when I first started investing and trading I was an investor who was afraid of losing money and I am happy to say that I am now very profitable and have bought my first house through it.
It's a normal mentality to be very scared when you're actually making money in investing, and it's been true for me in the past.
@@kevinallary4241
Scared to invest but wanting to be successful.
@@ShaneFulton-zw6yk Of course, it's because you don't have good advice when you're investing, and "Dan Price CFA" has helped me do that, and I probably wouldn't have made the change without his strategies.
@@kevinallary4241 I would like to try to communicate with "Dan Price CFA" once. If I can retire now.
@@lucianoyt4631 "Dan Price CFA" is all it takes to google him and you can see his resume.
Glad to see that you adjust the painting behind...
A link to the sources would be very helpful
Good job Brendan.
Jeez - It's "moat" not "mote"!
Great video man. Appreciate it.
Your channel is one of my absolut favorite on RUclips and your style is great
Great video! Love the length of your videos. Keep it up guys!!
Is now a good time to buy cryptocurrencies? How long until they recover? Experts can thrive in a falling market with strategic holding.
Even in the economic crisis, some still make six-figure salaries. The key is a good understanding of the market and successful tactics.
@@ragabkamel_ Always remember this advice: there are good and bad days in investing, it's a zero-sum game. Spend and invest wisely, diversify your holdings, and consider working with a knowledgeable specialist offering various investment options. This way, you reduce regrets and potentially increase gains.
@@kelbenjamin Could you kindly suggest a specialist who offers a wide range of investment options? It's quite rare, and I'm excited to hear your recommendation.
@@SilviaRave_ Funny that you mentioned it; I completely understand. Consider yourself advised by "Eric Thomas Witt" though I'm not sure if I can say that. In 2020, he was widely covered by the media. My portfolio is managed by him as well....
@@kelbenjamin I'm feeling a bit desperate, so your tip comes at the perfect time! After looking him up online, I'm going to reach out to him. Thanks!
Always look forward to your to your videos bro! Love the time and effort you put into them!
I'm a truck driver. Everything is moving towards LNG and CNG fuels. Diesel is being slowly phased out. Do with that as you will.
Thank you
Really good point about growth vs. value.
Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a coach or other professional for advice.
This video = take an interview, then repeat the interview with some animation. Minimum value added. I’ll just watch CNBC thanks rather than have it repeated to me
Find one, or a few at most, incredible companies, buy as much as you can, as often as you can, and hold them for as long as you can. It doesn’t have to be complicated and you’ll build longterm wealth with little to no stress or effort.
Just get as much money as you can and get more every chance you get and hang on to all of it. I’ll send an invoice for my consulting fee
None of warning vidoe from t the last year have come true
Brandon, thank you for this great video. Cheers.
Excellent reminder of only fundamental meritocracy.
I'm buying QQQ, VOO and SCHD ETFs at prices they were nearly 2 years ago....Where's the Bubble?
Seth Klarman might be hard to find on CNBC, but he’s pretty easy to find around the race track.
Theres always some big investor or fund manager saying things are about to collapse, were in a super bubble, the biggest crash ever is just around the corner, blah blah blah. Its part of the up and down cycle of the market.
Keep making these videos !!!
Love your videos!! Dont stop please :)
Gr8! So we can buy more stocks,
at a reasonable price?! Gr8!
It’s in their interest to make people think it’s a bubble so they buy more
it might be a naive question but after 3 years of investing i still don't know how i could invest in markets like the chinese or the indian. a lot of brokers here in the EU won't let you do that. do you have any suggestion? thank you so much and keep going!
I hope you are aware that stock market in the commies' land might work differently sometime, on the table or under
@@JudgeHill thank you so much!
We are an equity private equity fund company with 40 years of investment experience. We are mainly responsible for New York and Hong Kong, two exchanges with relatively large economic flows. When the US stock market is not good, we will recommend high-quality Hong Kong stocks to customers.
We will launch a 100% profit plan 2-3 times a month. This is a short-term stock "1-2 days". The winning rate is 15%-30% and it will be higher. Our goal is to make every customer a real investors!
The sentiment among affluent investors, such as Dalio and Karlman, is clear: we are navigating uncharted waters. Money has been readily available at minimal cost for an extended period. There will inevitably be a cost for this lax monetary stance, and that cost will be substantial.
Dalio is a China fan boi. I don't trust that guy
@travisadams4470
Dalio was wrong in 2022 saying "cash is trash". Cash was one of the best performing assets.
@@george6977 cash is trash
Everything except the 5 stocks that are determining the level of the NASDAQ and S&P are in the opposite of a bubble.
"He is one of those investors who avoids the spot light AT ALL COSTS!" and here he is sitting on CNBC expressing his opinions. There must be someone off screen holding a gun to his head.
lmao
Your chart of the S&P at 4:11 conveniently leaves out the performance so far in 2023.
I'm surprised you are main stream channel and have valuable films that's not happening too often
why later in the video.
Mote? I thought it was moat?
Im staying 50/50 cash and equities just in case there is another market downturn I’ll be ready to buy stocks at valued prices
If you only buy because price is going down, how do you know when you're wrong?
@@BlackJesus8463 I’m always buying. I dont just buy when prices are down. My strategy is dollar cost average every two weeks but I save just as much in cash into a high yield money market so if there is a market downturn I do a lump sum investment. I’m not good enough to time the market so I’m always investing.
I thought his bottom up concept was an amazing one to take literally and metaphorically. Literally from a price chart perspective.
I have heard of him. I have his book and I’ve read it. If you look around the internet enough then you can probably find it as a pdf like I did.
Good vid. Pointer: moat not mote!?
There will always be opportunities
Great content as always. How do I know Mohnish's India portfolio?
Is this a reposted video?
It iS!
The amazing thing is that the stock market is now higher than when interests were 0%.
Look at the national debt... stocks are more expensive due to inflation and lots of debt. Its risky to think that this increase is based on real growth...
Great stuff!
My edge is cloud computing and cost efficiency with tech
He’s also promoting his book
Brookfield is Canadian* 08:52
Why is every up a bubble?
an "everything bubble" is just inflation.
If about 5 people can reliably ourperform a risk-appropriate index over the long run, then what's the point in trying unless you're one of the smartest or information-rich people in the world?
It’s just insider trading. Game is rigged, you’re only allowed to play so you can increase their prize pools.
Put it in an index fund and go work on keeping your health, increase your skillsets and enjoy your life?
@@fdroepman8351 that’s bad for quarterly profits, so not allowed. Try working 60 hours a week till you drop dead maybe? That seems to be the intended life path.
3:11 umm ok…
Yeah more opportunities in india and turkey....but also more risk
My home value has increased by more than 75% in the past 7 years. It peaked at almost 100% last year but thankfully corrected earlier this year.
House prices doubling in 10 years is not uncommon
@@groundswell3673that’s because the housing market is kept under artificial scarcity to pump prices. It isn’t natural, it’s a policy choice the boomers made so the cheap ass properties they bought as kids with minimum wage jobs could be upcycled into more and more money and fuck everyone else in the process. I eagerly await the day the market crashes.
He's right. Revenue growth is flat among top SP500 stocks while they trade at over 30x p/e ratio and treasuries yield 5.5%.
Strange times. That is, uncertain.
I used to be a value investor and barely saw any returns. Turned into a positional trader and the results have been very positive
A broken (analoge) clock is right 2 times a day
“There’s more and more of a concern that incoming data is revealing that the Fed might be a little bit behind the curve than maybe they expected heading into this year,” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green. How are other people in this market raking in over $350k gains within months
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
The current market buzz certainly offers a fascinating viewpoint. It's quite startling to witness such bold predictions about the future trajectory of certain cryptos and stocks. Amidst this, it's essential to keep one's feet on the ground and not be swayed by these forward-looking statements. My strategy in this climate has been to trade judiciously, secure profits, and I can't praise Tammy Brockman enough for her stellar work in analyzing charts, trades, and techniques. Her expertise has been instrumental in expanding my portfolio to a whopping $247k in just 6 weeks. I would highly recommend her to anyone looking to grow their investments.
The fact that i got to learn and earn from her program is everything to me think about it, it's a win win for both ways.
I lost so much money trading on my own, I think I'm motivated to trading again but this time with she thanks for sharing her contact.
Everyone needs more than than a Basic Income to be Financially Secured in this present time that there's an Economic Decline.
Tammy literally saved me, just before the crash she advised me to get out of my long position. I'll recommend her any day.
Even when Bitcoin is looking bearish with the market sentiment swinging low. But she kept us grounded with her real analysis, just the facts in the charts.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio
Well then you can also say gold has 0 cash flow does gold have any value?
It feels like there is a "crash incoming" every month lol
Why not just take 5.5% interest on short-term government bonds and wait?
Who are the other 4 investors on Buffett’s list of market beaters?
WHEN WHEN ITS GOING TO POP? cmon, everyone is painiting this grim picture since end of pandemic.
Got the opportunity to meet New money in real life during a BBQ of Berkshire Hathaway. He is one of the chillest persons I’ve ever met!
He said the same words as Peter Lynch
I share interest in the Everything Bubble narrative. But with such inflated money supply money is just not coming out of assets lol.
This is all too much for me to consider.
I going to just invest into a couple of Index funds in my Super.
Everyone is just extending the debt until next year when the Fed lowers back to zero.
Bought Meta at 140$ watched it falling below 100$. Never sold :)
The meta quote confused me.
Money are always flowing from inpatient gamblers to patience investors
I think we are in a currency bubble
But when every video predicts a market crash or a bubble bursting… Even broken clocks are right twice a day
looking at small cap value index pe ratios and pb ratios at near 10 year lows. yeah it's not an everything everything bubble.
If this is the person Buffet looks at...then why isnt he selling stocks buying physical gold? Eventhough buffet doesnt like gold it seems that its the safest bet for the coming years.
Everything I find in India they won’t let me invest in unless I use a product & that product usually sucks in my eyes but your broker likes the results
I tried to invest in india as a european. But... foreigners of non indian descent cant buy assets in india.
Really sad I cant helo india groe
Brazil has good companies
Micron is a classic with some hedge funds.
India. Well tesla looks to be headed there as well as apple. India is going to become the next powerhouse over the next 30 years
Bought a good cross section of an economy, Built a diverse portfolio that i am attached to and keeps me motivated not following the crowd emotionally ,Sped up the process where possible:i use an FA, side hustle, reinvest, i do etf's, bonds, coins and stocks. After my first million I realized that when a stock starts booming chances of you finding out means you are quite late to the party, for this I make sure my CFA handles that, ever grateful to Helene Claire Johnson .it's like turning your notifications to earn more millions.
Found her webpage by looking up her name online.... she seems very proficient, I'll be writing a mail to her shortly
i’ve just taken a deep dive into investing, particularly dividend growth investment as it interests me. hoping to get to the big dogs someday..
"Act Decisively" wish i had done this when both TSLA and META we're around $100 per share.
Where haven't we heard this before? I mean at some point they are going to be correct, and we'll praise them for it, discounting the 50 times prior they were wrong..
I bought META when it was tumbling to 52 week lows because I figured Mark wouldn't sink the ship with investments in the metaverse. Mark would pivot and he did. I think the edge there is being contrarian when others are fearful. Sometimes it doesn't work as has been my case with BABA, but I think most of the time I have pulled ahead by buying when others are dumping the stock of a company at a deep discount to future cash flows.
We are an equity private equity fund company with 40 years of investment experience. We are mainly responsible for New York and Hong Kong, two exchanges with relatively large economic flows. When the US stock market is not good, we will recommend high-quality Hong Kong stocks to customers.
We will launch a 100% profit plan 2-3 times a month. This is a short-term stock "1-2 days". The winning rate is 15%-30% and it will be higher. Our goal is to make every customer a real investors!
I've done well with the market in the last year, perhaps too well. Thus, I can't justify being a pig. Pigs go to slaughter. I am slowly selling out my positions, shorting a few overvalued securities, and will be positioned to be greedy when everyone else becomes fearful. I will gladly forgo any potential gains with this overvalued market and wait for the dust to clear. Your results may vary should you not agree with this sentiment.
You make it all sound easy but it is not. Basically investing is a blood sport and don't forget it.