Is A Waterfall Stock Decline Imminent?
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2022
- Is it still possible for the stock market to make a stand near logical levels of support or is a painful waterfall plunge more likely? What can we learn from the charts and stock market history?
You always get some people who feel like, ‘I missed out on the last big run, and I’m not going to miss that again, so I’m going to get in now when prices are cheap.’
Yes, because the stock market is and has always been the best place to make substantial income. I think people took too many risky investments when they shouldn’t have.
@@benalistair4443 my portfolio has good companies, however have been red for 8 months now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don't know if I should sell everything and just sit and wait.
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek professional support. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long-term goals and financial dreams.
@@benalistair4443 I’ve been trying to hire a professional after all it’s what really wealthy people do, they hire more experienced persons to do the job but I can’t find anyone I can trust.
@@andreabrooks5948 Recently started out an investment manager and it turned out to be exactly what I was looking for. Her name is Camille Anne Hector, she is well researched so you look her up online.
I'm going to put myself in a coma and wake up 5 years from now.
Maybe 3 years will be enough
Probably have another year until real bottom
Great video and TA. Thanks Chris.
Wow, this is an incredible amount of great info packed into a short time. Glad I found this channel. Thanks for the data!
for chart people this is the best out there. so much high quality dense content. thank you
A lot of info. Thank you.
Great video as always. The best part was the picture of the waterfall. Multnomah Falls, just outside of Portland. My former home.
Thank you! I always good forward to watching your videos! Balance approach!
i feel absolutely hopeless, btw what do you think about breakeven inflation which is collapsing right now, no one talks about it
Very well done. thanks
Yes, thanks again Chris!
Very good analysis of the Nas.
Thumbs up from me.👍🏽
Great observations! Thanks for sharing.
With fed taking 95 billion per month out, can't see this stopping yet
Earnings should start to fail this Q into Q1 and I agree QT is a head wind. Relatively speaking the US is in better shape than other nations but it is a domino effect and the world economy should slow down. We are currently in the reset mode and stocks look ahead 6 month. 3000 to 2800 is extreme low while 3400-3200 is the target. We are getting near and at this point DCA thinking with a 3 to 5 year outcome is not out of the question.
Exactly. Stocks are just now starting to approaching valuations that make sense given their earnings. But thing is earning are going to fall an that means stock prices are going to fall. The only real question is how much.
Thanks for this. It's a shame it misses data from the close... which was quite a thing.
Yes, it got even worse than he's saying in this drop.
where is the waterfall image taken from? dudhsagar, goa?
so it may go up or may go down...enlightening
thanks Chris. Most relevant read of the week as always.
Thanks, Chris. And to think it got much worse after 3 pm on Friday when these charts were lifted.
Thanks..brilliant stuff. Hopefully I can learn to follow when you talk that talk😮
Good stuff. So much evidence and facts no emotions
Great show and timely!
Excellent as usual. Thankyou.
Thank you!
Thanks your information is amazing and we are on a knifes edge. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Thank u very much.
These past few days watching my crypto portfolio decline is very disheartening. Holding doesn't really profit much. Any ideas on how to earn better on the short run?
Short term trading is much preferable considering the
current market fluctuations.
Really am confused especially in the market analysis, how do people take advantage trading them??
@@Kokoben1 These are what beginners do think, me to I used to think the same way... Thank God I met Mrs Erica Denise Melissa...she helped me in trading and inculcate how the market works..
I'm also a proud beneficiary! I've built my portfolio massively and still building. My weekly earnings from her strategies are mind blowing...
@Cristina Brown Erica Denise Melissa is an expert trader, she uses both manual and algorithmic trading techniques while trading... She is amazing and indeed professional in what she does.
Thanks 👍 again
Thanks!😀
So to sum it up - Early in the year these videos were bullish. In June these videos were super bearish before rally. Then in August these videos again bullish right before plunge. Now after plunge these videos are again super bearish. How is anyone of this helpful to say what comes next when all this shows is bullish bias during uptrend and bearish during downtrend? This predicted absolutely nothing all year.
If the market is up on the week, this guy says "much better than expected" results. If it drops, its " much lower lows are probable".
Useless babble as always.
I agree - I did some further checks on this channel's videos and found:
1. Week of March 14th - Market is 15% off the Jan high. This channel says more downside is expected. Instead we get an OPEX/put-covering rally of 10% that brings us back to 4600.
2. Week of March 31st - Market has completed the previous OPEX rally. This channel says the correction is over and we should make new ATHs above 4800. Instead we get the start of that brutal 7-week losing streak, losing 20% and making a swing low of 3600 in June.
3. Week of August 15th - Market is completing the "most hated rally" off the June lows, and hitting the 200 SMA (4300). This channel says that it has a 95% confidence interval that the bear market is over and new ATHs are on deck for the rest of the year. Instead we're sitting here today, having broken through the June low and possibly heading much lower.
@@eugenepark9665 All 100% true.
I think that’s 99.9% of all analysts 😊
Yep, this is why I watch him. Figure out peak fear and peak bullishness to do the opposite. I thought last week was the bearish and we would bounce/recover some this week, but apple and the UK had other plans for last week of trading
Always well reasoned and reassuring. Thank you both Chris and Kathy for your excellent research and presentation!
execellent view..all possible
Great weekly video as always Chris! Be well and in good spirits!
Wow 😯 I have gained more insight from this video than all the subscription services costing me thousands of dollars. Thank you Chris. Do you do live-streaming ? In such a market conditions you should have a live RUclips
Excellent Presentation. Thank you! The majority of traders still do not understand we are in a similar cycle as 2007 -2009 that will most likely be worse. I was fortunate to see what Michael Burry saw was coming in 2007 and moved all the money I had in my 401K plan from the stock fund into the money market fund in June of 2007. I was early, and I wish I knew about shorting then, but I did not lose a cent in the 2008 crash even though I made very little interest. I moved my money back into the stock fund in March of 2009.
how u using shorting? idk how to do it... and when u thinking of start buying stocks again?
Just a month ago (at the mid-AUgust peak) this channel was saying that a new bull market was in progress
@@eugenepark9665 Chris is a perma bull, running a stock fund. People who sell stocks and take a per cent of the market cap in stocks are always trying to sell and pump up their fund so they collect more commission. Chris is talking his book but explaining his view. I think Chris is often too optimistic but stocks do usually rebound.
@@ozemalhao if you don't know how then maybe you shouldn't do it.
@@jlocklear7696 all i can do is buy and hold or sell. i need learn options..
Inducement of liquidity is a beautiful thing…
Keep an open mind means don’t sell and don’t buy? By the way this is well researched video and precious time was put into this video. Thanks.
Great!
Great work 👌
The data look was really interesting and valuable but it showed how much we need to pay attention to the specific details ... Because we now know this crash defied the odds
It didn't defy anything and was predictable. People are trying to fight the Fed. Buying here is like shorting since 2010 when Fed was printing.
@@indianajones3315 lmao
This to preface the episode before I watch.
I get a lot of joy in sitting quietly watching these episodes.
I love bear markets ❗
1) you learn more
2) you see the new wave emerge
3) it washes out the chaff -the b.s.
4) it makes lawmakers and bankers fearful of the pitchfork
Schadenfreude for me. I get pleasure watching the cocky over paid people get a little blood on their clothing. Serves them right. I do feel bad for the honest working people who are also hurt.
The Vix on the week has made lower highs and lower lows. I think it's making a double top and about to tank. I believe the stock market will have a pretty good rally in October.
looking forward for the video everyweek..😀
Great stuff as always,,,,,Best on RUclips....i keep in mind that Russia is out of the picture,,,,,,,China has major setbacks.....EARNING could be bad for several quarters....could have Christmas rally......but to me with CDs at 4%,,,,just looks grim for stocks....
I’m started buying Friday gonna keep buying for the next month and that’s my play I’ll live with it whatever happens
I think you are spot on! It seems like all damage is priced into the market. If this isn't the bottom, we should be at a bottom this month, at least intermediate term.
Fingers crossed 👍🏻
IMHO the two key factors driving the current market sell off are the interest rate increases and QT Quantitative Tightening. “Don’t fight the Fed!” If I’m correct (it’s been known to happen) then those factors are more important than market internals. FWIW. Chris touched on one of these factors when he commented on the relative timing of 10 year yields and market bottoms
Has anyone noticed the amount in dollars of high to the present and recent closing low in the S&P 500, is only $4.00 difference from the Covid high to low?
2008 and 2020, things could get much much worse, but FED jumped in and started to print money, the rate was at 0. This time could be different, FED is draining money from the system and the rate is going up rapidly.
Kiss of death on the charts see you at 3000
I don't think I've ever heard Chris talk so solemn.....
That’s when you buy, always do the opposite of Chris’ leaning probability and you should be fine
Fundamentally speaking, it's very scary to see such a fast rise in interest rates so soon after a significant stretch of loose policy. Some part of the debt market is very likely to break. Hopefully not a large part.
Sell the rips intra day until something changes IMO. Technicals are cool but there has to be a catalyst to turn this ship around
Thanks Chris. For those of us still far from retirement it seems like a pretty good time to bump up the 401k contribution percent and let dollar cost averaging every two weeks do its thing.
Bingo
2008
All of that is recency biased. Unless you are factoring in the potential of a fed with its hands tied unlike all the previous times when it came to the rescue, you're not taking a serious look at potential risk
It's a 401k.. it's not a brokerage account he's cashing out of.. dollar cost averaging on untaxed pay is a compounding feet in its own right even if the market moved sideways for a decade.. who are you to challenge him lol
@@robs2579 that's nonsensical but whatever. I trade and advise for a living and am doing very well even in this market. But you do you
Interesting.
it is very clear this is not a 2008 at least not yet but we will wait until next week and the following week.
You in a gymnasium?
I can’t emphasize how helpful these videos are for me! Thank you so much!
How lol. These are always wrong
@@spaceoddity2485 He literally made no predictions! Simply presented historical data and emphasized we could move hard in either direction. How can there be a right or wrong?
Thanks Chris. I think we will find an interim bottom in the S&P between 3450 to 3500 in the coming week. We can then see a rally into mid October before a waterfall collapse to the 3000 to 3200 level by early November. Just my guess.
waterfall into us elections? nah
@@ackt83 They are only mid terms and our political system is a joke anyway. Cant trust most of these charlatans and certainly cant trust the racists in office.
@@ackt83 Inflation hurts EVERYONE and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Falling markets hurt only higher income groups and they always have the option to go to cash or T Bills that are paying 4%.
a few secs in i immediately subbd
Nasdaq AND Russell holding their June 17th lows respectively ....... furthermore near an important Fibonacci juncture as well vs. SPX failure TODAY.
340 is the 5th wave target on the SPY
@@MrYatesj1 3400?
@@MrYatesj1 there isn't a 5th wave per se because the recent 4325 rise TRUNCATED your wave 1 count by superseding it!
The most bearish I have heard Chris in over two years. It sure looks and feels like a capitulation is coming and we can find THE bottom sooner than later.
Keep open mind - up or down
Many don't get here that Chris is talking about probabilities of future direction (that's what technical analysis does, not predictions or guarantees) and that his investment portfolio adjustments are only for paying clients. The past repeats itself because price charts are the result of human emotions (fear/greed).
Alright, but his probabilities stats = horrible - all year long. Look at his past videos and you can easily see.
Thank you. This is priceless information. The US dollar is off its high a little and metals are groping for a bottom, perhaps the fed will detect a slower degree of inflation.
The rate rate needs to get to 4.5 to 5% and as mentioned in the video the Fed and this rate will be held for a longer term to shake out any inflation lingering. IMO we don't see a V bottom and bounce it will be more of a U shape as the economy picks itself up and brushes itself off. Then the Fed and cut a little which will fuel the next Bull. Hopefully we don't go back to 0 rates what was a cause to inflation
I think you are brilliant, but watching trailing indicators doesn't predict the future. They always confirm after the event. To make money trading you need a predictive system. In a bear market, you need an indicator that reacts twice as fast compared to a bull market. I use a variant of the Ichimoku combined with a "Way of the turtle" algorithm. My account is up 95% ytd. I've been short NQ futures since the end of March.
Now you tell us.....
No reversal until the Fed raises rates to beat inflation in the manner Volcker did... four percent over the inflation rate. Using the formula to figure inflation in his time, we are over 15 percent. We arent even close to recovery.
After testing the weekly ma200 the Dow entered Nov 2/9 2020 gap. It might close the gap and popup, or plunge < 25K. Get cash, food, fuel....Putin might shut down the GPS (British general).
Brilliant thanks Chris 😊
Scale is misleading on graph at 1:04 . Inverse of -50% is +200% (should be equally sized).
Hundreds of charts but you’re not really saying anything. Mildly entertaining
S&P is going down to 3000. I said that months ago. And that’s basically all you need to know for right now
That DAX chart....
We like an easy way up, easy way down?
Thanks to the author to putting up his charts that showed history of the past. The charting is useful in normal circumstances but when comes to extreme situations like we are not in, it is not much help because the role served more like a lagging indicator in such situations.
We could test March 2020 lows only two years ago. Bitcoin $6,500, Dow $22,000, S&P $2,600, Nasdaq $7,700.
Charting is very valuable in a somewhat normal economy. The global economy is now very abnormal. Charting cannot predict occurrences that have never happened. Lastly, the focus is on the teeny tiny equities market. The bond market is much larger and shows major issues. The currency markets are ginormous and show even bigger issues than the bond market.
There's a reason that Japan reached its last stock market high in December, 1989.
People need to stop trying to call the bottom of equities and look at the terror of the currency markets. Britain almost imploded a few days ago. Japan got so bad they had to intervene. China is getting destroyed. I could go on with smaller economy nations.
Play the charts at your peril...
You know things are getting desperate, when he records this from a church!
Why would the market crash at this moment in time? Inflation is sticky but it’s moving down so we can take the inflation issue out of the crash. Unemployment is low so people are working and paying their bills even with Fairly high inflation. home prices and rent are coming down at a good pace as well. The economy is in a stable position. The FED already has raise interest rates enough to battle inflation, they need to take a step back pause let all this interest hikes settle in the economy and take it from there. So why would the market crash at this moment in time well the FED will crash economy if they keep rasing interest rates, and people in the middle class and at the lower level will take the punishment not wealthy they don’t care about interest rates. Be sure to be ready for anything at this point. Invest wisely.
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
While there’s more pain to come, investors should look for stocks like Royal Philips NV and Alstom SA that have been beaten down enough that they’re a bargain or get a good portflio manager...
agree, I've been in constant touch with a Financial Analyst for approximately 8 months. You know, these days it's really easy to buy into trending stocks, but the task is determining when to sell or keep. That's where my manager comes in, to help me with entry and exit points in the industries I'm engaged in. Can’t say I regret it, I’m 40% up in profits just in 5months with my initial capital of $160k..
@@bobbymainz1160 heard it's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up
@@joesphcu8975 Having a coach is key in a volatile market, My advisor is “ Eileen Ruth Sparks” You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.
@@bobbymainz1160 the crazy part is that advisors are probably outperforming the market and raising good returns. I will give this Patrice a look up, lucky i stumbled on this thread.
Watched those convincing videos for years. Fortunately I did not follow your advice since end of 2021, but contrary to most of these videos I sold almost everything - but thanks to your videos with a „guilty conscience“. Sorry, no longer so convinced by you, find this confirmed by other commentators here.
Can’t lower interest rates, can’t raise interest rates, can’t leave them the same.. Global order around dollar collapsing.. Yep, we are totally screwed.
I was thinking more slow yet steady loses. The vix just does not look like it will top to 40 or more
You could be right, but sooner or later it has to be a waterfall down. At some point people just give up and sell. I was either smart enough or just lucky enough to be in almost all cash this year. i am waiting for the waterfall to get back in.
@@rcairflr at some point soon nibble in and dollar cost Ave going forward. So hard to call the bottom.
@@MrYatesj1 yeah, I am watching closely. I am thinking a bounce this week for a trade, but need more time to see the bottom
Stocks might go up! But it it might also go down….
market will likely find its bottom in oct(based on sept/oct being historically bearish months also taking midterms into account). the market fell on average -35% during the 11 recession bear markets going back to 1950s. a decline of -35% would take us very close to spx 3000. although i do think there will likely be support levels between 3300-3500. at this point i would be very surprised if we dont test 3500, this level is significant as it would essentially erase all QE gain made through 2021. dark days ahead
That doesn’t take into account near record inflation.. Dark isn’t a good enough word to define what’s coming.
But wait stock market might go down…but it might also go up!😂
LOOKS LIKE a major low. Cover shorts. Buy low. WE have three months of sideways to up. THEN THE CRASH IN EARNEST IN 2023.
NASDAQ 8k.
i recon w will all end up fighting over the street pidgeons we gat so hungary
I will just keep buying Google, Unity and Starbucks.
we are going to 0.
my guess 3200-3300 is the bottom for the next 6months
Too many charts all based on the same data
and with alllllll that it means Nothing
While this seems like a tsunami of negativity, I will remind regular viewers that a year ago Chris was extremely bullish.
"Feel free to use the pause button."
Me: *immediately puts video on 2.5x speed*
Uup
Another one with the "TweNNy-tweNNy" problem...
Market not coming back until the Fed starts lowering rates.
I’ll summarize here: We ARE F0CK!!! 😢😢😢😢
The cocaine is gone. Don't fight the Fed.
SPX to 14,000? Lol