Investing Prudently In Perilous Times w/ Guy Spier (RWH023)
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- Опубликовано: 4 май 2024
- William Green chats with renowned hedge fund manager Guy Spier. He explains how he’s positioning his portfolio to survive & prosper in these perilous times, & he shares practical advice on how to maintain equanimity amid all this uncertainty.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:00 - How living in a calm & predictable environment helps Guy Spier to invest better.
00:09:42 - How he resisted the temptation to buy overvalued tech stocks during the recent bubble.
00:24:57 - Why we must beware of the psychological effects of rapidly rising or falling stock prices.
00:29:18 - Why Guy refuses to invest in any business that can’t fund all of its growth internally.
00:40:11 - How going to Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting helps to reinforce rational behavior.
00:50:34 - What Warren Buffett told Guy Spier & Mohnish Pabrai about the perils of debt.
01:01:35 - Why Guy regards the war in Ukraine as a potentially systemic threat to investors.
01:11:09 - Why he’s invested heavily in China, despite the political & economic dangers.
01:11:20 - Where he’s investing in order to survive & prosper in these times of heightened risk.
01:13:39 - Why he’s avoiding weaker countries, including Indonesia & the Philippines.
01:14:54 - How he wrestles with the tricky question of whether to trim or hold his winners.
01:19:34 - How he constructs a portfolio that helps him to maintain his emotional equilibrium.
01:26:52 - Why he’ll never short another stock.
01:44:14 - Why he diverged from Mohnish on the risks & rewards of investing in Turkey.
01:58:19 - What Guy & Mohnish have learned from the stunning success of their friend Li Lu.
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▶️ RELATED EPISODES:
- 5 Life Lessons from Guy Spier | The Education of a Value Investor: • 5 Life Lessons from Gu...
- The Education Of A Value Investor By Guy Spier: • The Education Of A Val...
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📖 BOOK MENTIONED:
- The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier: amzn.to/3ZPYi70
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On Richer, Wiser, Happier, William Green interviews high-profile guests such as Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and Ray Dalio. Exploring what they can teach us about how to succeed in markets and life.
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Elite capture at its best. His infatuation with ccp leadership is funny. Divorced from any facts, evidence or reality. He has to lick the boot or he loses everything
I love hearing Guy and his steady philosophy of life and investing. William is perhaps the best interviewer I've listened to as he always knows what to ask and how to structure the questioning such that it's much more than a "how to invest" series. William's book "Richer, Wiser, Happier" is one of my all time favorites as he not only gets into how these individuals think and invest but more importantly how it reconciles with how they actually live. Well done William, Investor's podcast is lucky to have you.
Many thanks, Rod -- that's very kind of you to say. I really appreciate it. Warm wishes, William
Totally agreed 👍
Elite capture at its best. His infatuation with ccp leadership is funny. Divorced from any facts, evidence or reality. He has to lick the boot or he loses everything
great conversation between 2 friends. You need to do one with Guy asking William questions, for example on the track record of +20 years interviewing investors, the journalistic process, plus expanding observations from his great Richer, Wiser book.
(Update: Oooops I wrote this as I was listening at the 90min mark, and now that we get to the end its actually Guy asking William :,)
Always a pleasure to listen to Mr. Guy Spier.
Thank you so much for watching!
Elite capture at its best. His infatuation with ccp leadership is funny. Divorced from any facts, evidence or reality. He has to lick the boot or he loses everything
I love the background and Guy Spier's analogies
Thank you William. Thank you Guy. I can’t hear enough of this.
Thank you so much for watching!
Great interview - your friendship and warmth comes through - love the wide ranging, long form format. Bravo 👍🏽
Thanks so much. Glad you enjoyed the video!
Facinating having guy ask you a question, ive followed you william for what for me seems a long time. But to hear you discussing your reinvention. Its great to hear.
Glad you enjoyed the conversation!
Need to watch this more than once
Thanks so much, Chris. Glad you found it worthwhile. Warm wishes, William
Richer, Wiser, Happier #2 🎉
And 3-10
Guy and William's generosity is amazing to share their time and knowledge. THANK YOU🙏
Glad you found it valuable! Thanks for watching. 🙏
Excellent interview! Thank you William and Guy for this! Take good care of you.😉
Our pleasure! Thank you so much for watching.
Good teacher. Well thought out arguments. I sleep to these talks. Keep it up guys.
These guys are legendary.
Great interview
Glad you enjoyed the video!
Loving William’s RM Williams boots :)
Great convo as always
Thanks a lot! Warm wishes, William
Avouding mistakes is also an important part of investing.
Thank you both, that really helped me
Our pleasure!
Thank you TIP, William and Guy.
Thank you so much for watching, Anish!
Interesting interview. As a retail investor on the other end of portfolio size (sub 1 million), I appreciate the concepts in thinking.
Thanks a lot, Larry. Warm wishes, William
Always great listening to Guy Spier!. Insightful conversation.
So happy to hear you liked the video!
Success and failure... treat those two imposters just the same. One step in front of the other.
Great interview & insights
Extremely talented interviewer. I enjoyed listening to this.
So happy to hear that, Andrew!
Nice one guys. Thank you both. When I saw William had joined forces with TIP a year or two ago I was floored. As if Michael Jordan suddenly appeared on a college final 4 team in 1995... Supercharging a unit that's already performing at a very high level.
Thank you so much for the lovely comment. Appreciate your support, Rob!
Many thanks, Rob! That's very kind of you. Warm wishes, William
This was great. Nice work.
Thank you very much!
Remarkable ! Well done you two, I ❤ it.
Many thanks! Warm wishes, William
Well done William!
Great interviews are often the result of the one conducting the interview. That is certainly the case here. Guy seems so comfortable with you. As a result he seems more open to share more about who he is as a human. How wonderful to have a friend like Guy Spier. More importantly, how you two have each been there to walk with each other through the dark valleys.
As a fellow "scatter brain", I can relate to Guy's wanting to live in a quiet orderly place and his need for predictability and quality. Parallels between Swizerland/Swiss businesses and Berkshire Hathaway culture and business philosophy.
zjxn06
(typing alone from a room in my house nestled high (3,000m) in the Colorado mountains)🙂
Pascal: “All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.”
Many thanks for your thoughtful and kind message. Warm wishes, William
"Set & Forget"
Excellent video! Enjoyed listening to Mr. Spier.
Glad you enjoyed it, Jamie!
This goes on repeat for the next year
Awesome interview
Glad you liked it!
Brilliant, thank you for this ❤
William Green is a gem!!!
Thanks a lot, Dmitry!
Great interview thank you so much - could not help noticing the Zohar book on the table - the book that holds all the answers
Exactly! I always try to keep it nearby. Warm wishes, William
Does anybody know where those chairs are from? They look so comfortable!
You had me at USM 😅 The stuff is kidsproof as well.
Very interesting and deep dialog! Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it!
As usual , awesome interview! I want the chair :-)
Many thanks! They're beautiful chairs...
Brilliant, really enjoyed this
Thanks a lot! Warm wishes, William
Fantastic interview. I've been a fan of Guy since I read his book years ago, but I just don't get how he's a fund manager. Perhaps it's because he's so self aware, but it comes across to me tha he has such extreme behavioural limitations.
Thanks so much for watching!
Very nice
watching this after the (near) collapse of Credit Suisse and here he is praising Switzerland as a a solid investment choice :- ))
wow, thank you!
You're welcome!
Anyone know what books are placed on the table?
The Zohar is at the top of the pile. It's an ancient Kabbalistic book written in Aramaic. This edition includes an English translation. I tend to dip into it most days and to keep it on my desk when I write anything or do interviews. Guy and I read a bit of it before we started the conversation, which is also what we did when we worked together on his book. Warm wishes, William
1:19:34 for a view outside
Wonderful.
Thank you, Robert. Cheers!
I’m confused. Warren told guy that he doesn’t want to find out what he’s capable of when getting into debt. But Warren used a significant amount of debt in his partnership days. Even Charlie munger used some debt when buying Alibaba .
In relation to the point made by Guy at 1:07:17, I don't think that it was a good idea to issue an arrest warrant against Putin for crimes against humanity right now. Has he committed them? Maybe? But from a pragmatic standpoint, did "the West" really want to escalate this conflict into one where Putin is backed into a corner, and his only options as an individual are to fight, or to die/accept life in prison? Once this step was taken, it was no longer possible to negotiate peace with Putin, because it equated to "the West" deciding that the only way this can end is via his demise, and I doubt he will be too keen to agree with that. Therefore, his only real option right now is to keep on fighting.
How about calling all US presidents as war criminals given the number of regimes toppled, number of leaders targeted or actually killed or any number of things?
Very interesting interview.
Although I have to note that the question: 'you have 10% of your portfolio as cash - why are you so cautious' ... has zero connection with retail investors who simply can not lose all their capital. In that sense a billionaire talking how anxious he is when 50% down seems rather ridiculous.
Bad opsec on password security
Obviously Schmidt encourages start ups spending insane amounts of money on customer acquisition to boost Google Ads.
1:28:00
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy Gold, the government has failed us or try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
Indeed, gold proves to be a strong investment and a reliable hedge against the declining value of the dollar. I've held onto some gold for quite some time, and I'm thankful that my advisor's rapid adjustments to market fluctuations have likely prevented significant losses.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Angela Lynn Shilling and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Angela Lynn Shilling and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
1:47:20 What about the history of the Nakba that is suppressed by israel? 500 Palestinian towns wiped out of earth's surface? half of the Palestinians thrown out of their homes and homeland? Israel is still trying to conquer the rest of Palestine establishing an apartheid, but Guy is in love with Israel
People thought there is no way Putin will invade Ukraine because he would destroy his economy if he did so.
When I hear Guy speak about China, I hear a similar perception.
People think China will not make war with Taiwan and the US because it will destroy their economy.
But Putin's invasion of Ukraine suggests that dictators are often crazy with overconfidence.
I won't touch anything directed intertwined with Chinese economics.
I think it is a huge mistake because the risk to reward ratio on such investments is generally not good.
God I’m scared to know how many traders use Warren buffet as their password…
I don't see that "property rights" are important in the West. For example, in WWII the properties of the judes where confiscated, women's inheritance rights have been ignored/not respected/ circumvented and still are in even Western countries, etc.
Also if Guy is driving 35 in a 50km speed limit. And the road is dry.. then he’s going to severely limiting your investment potential
fred who?
Valuation ignored, name the companies you think are of the highest quality, no investment advice. Mine are: LEGO, Rolex, Motorola, elevator companies such as Otis or Kone, Madison Square Garden Entertainment.
Why do you think OTIS is great, if you dont mind sharing.
@@templogical3095 You have to think for yourself to make investment decisions but it's an oligopoly with a great and durable servicing segment.
Guy just made the case for a 1% bitcoin holding without even knowing it 😂
I wish I could be there the moment Guy Spier does a deep dive on Origin Materials $ORGN... Would be magical.
Did he say that his wife lived a structured life despite the fact that she was Mexican?
8:28
HATED that comment, like there arent any Mexicans with a structured life
@@luisrodrigopadilla3338 That's what it sounded like, but I wanted a second set of ears to verify it for me. Very strange.. If that's what he really said, that's messed up, and I hope he got a Mexican foot up his ass when he got home😁
He meant Mexico works even though it chaotic. And to find a structured partner from the chaos is double advantage. More like a comment from my side.
Not a big Robinhood guy, huh? 😂
Kissinger has been wrong on so many levels. Why is this guy talking about geopolitics, which he knows very little about? Stick to investing and stick to what you know (like buffett teaches).
Why are they wearing shoes in the house? Still an element of ego - which any future investors with Guy should be aware of!
Mr Greene has an apple computer.How pretentious is that.