Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially | 538 Politics podcast
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- Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
- The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage.
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So here's my take.
I generally think, or assume, that Trump will probably poll better on 2 issues : economy and immigration. Republicans almost always poll better on those 2 issues, especially on immigration. I honestly don't know why, but they do. And for sake or argument and being realistic i am going to assume that Trump will probably poll better on both of those issue. The question is by how much. Last I checked, his lead on the economy is ~10 points. I've seen it as low as 4 or 5, and as much as maybe 12. The Fed cutting rates and inflation continuing to come down will help kamala.
So, again, I'm sort of assuming that Trump will poll better on the economy and on immigration. But for every other issue...kamala is going to out gain him.
Morals, democracy, integrity, trust, abortion, equality, our rights, gun control. Kamala is going to run it up in all those categories.
Another HUGE WIN for kamala will be women. Women are going to overwhelmingly vote for kamala. I'll be honest, if you're a woman, i DON'T know how you vote for Trump. He literally is taking away your most fundamental rights. He also demeans and goes after your gender. If you're a woman and you vote for Trump you are literally hurting yourself.
Trump might also poll better on Men. Last time i checked the gap was ~10 points. But kamala is going to RUN IT UP with women. Shes also running it up with Asians and Indian-Americans.
Another interesting thing is young voters (who seem very engaged in this election, perhaps moreso than any other election in history). Assuming that engagement holds...that will be a huge W for kamala because she is going to absolutely rum it uo amongst 18-30 year olds. I've seen the margin for young voters as high as 30 points in favor of kamala. That was from a Harvard study. Biden won that age group by 20. So kamala is probably going to over perform there, and if young voting is up 200%, then that's a LOT of votes for kamala.
One average under republicans presidents the economy is going worse.
Under Trump it was the worst. Only hoover had lost more jobs then him by the time he left office.
Democrats have been more willing to heed economic and historical lessons about what policies actually strengthen the economy, while Republicans have often clung to theories that they want to believe - like the supposedly magical power of tax cuts and deregulation. Democrats, in short, have been more pragmatic."
I agree with your analysis, especially with where the winnable issues are for each candidate
I think Tester is done but Brown has a habit of pulling through
She’s leading in the presidential race also in case you hadn’t noticed that.
Haha ah yes, according to the historically accurate polling, right?
Worst polling presidential Democrat up to Sept since 1988 BTW
@@ericwolfley9929Trump literally has never been above 49% popularity.
She's leading you to becoming third world country 😆
yeah yeah i noticed that accurately democratic poll according to themselves lol
What the hell was that? Just post the podcast.
Skelley really just gave no actual answer to the question. Sure the challengers are lesser known, but why is there a 7% gap for EVERY SINGLE CANDIDATE and Kamala??
There is too much polling. At some point, it is meaningless. Polls try to correct for this, and that so the poll is a an overcorrected mess.
In the long runs with Republican you have higher unemployment and even more people becoming unemployed.
While the economy is weaker.
🤔☐...Republican US senate candidates, particularly incumbents, fared better than presidential nominees in 1984 and 1972 as well (nothing really new with thus cycle, either).
What's with people feeling the need to say "could" and "potentially" together?
Maybe Pollsters have just over-corrected when trying to account for Trump support.
That's certainly a possibility -- I know the main 538 website goes into more detail about that. Of course, it also says that there could be an error the other way. In other words, don't take the polls as gospel, just as probability matrices -- and then go vote!!
@@9thFloorAngel they did the opposite to boost her up, oversampling Dems by 3 to 1 lmao
God I hope so. The fact that there are still undecided and/or split ticket voters out there as of right now blows my effing mind.
@@9thFloorAngel the opposite actually
@@wa-bu3ke In past elections, yes, absolutely. My question this time however is, given their past under-estimation of Trump support, have Pollsters overcorrected their models in an effort to try and prevent their past mistakes?
If so, this election may not be as close as we all assume, and it would explain why we have a large discrepancy between the Presidential/Senatorial polls. Unfortunately this is all just speculation, and we simply won't know until the election.
I miss when you guys cussed. You should cuss more.
Douchey looking with those earphones
I only pay attention to Allan Lichtman’s election prediction. That’s how I know Harris will win no matter what 538 or Silver say.
You're going to be sorely disappointed 😂😂😂
You do know he incorrectly predicted Al Gore winning in 2000 and that race was just as neck and neck as this one and had 2 non-incumbent candidates
@@ryanscaggs1674Good one😢😂
@@tms174he was looking at himself in the mirror.
That guy is a quack but I hope he's right. We have to all actually get off our couch and vote to make it happen though.
Not well enough to keep it, Tester is done for, and now it looks like Sherrod Brown is in big trouble too, dems will be lucky to hold on to that seat.
There's still 6 weeks left, which is a lifetime in today's political climate -- so we'll see... The proof is in the results, not the polls!!
I wonder if people want a Trump economy without the conservative judges and justices. To the extent the Senate is left of POTUS.
That would along with the polls on economy for Trump and Abortion for Harris.
People want the conservative judges and justices. That is why Trump is so popular. Most Americans want Jerry Falwell Sr's vision for the country.
Supreme Court approval is literally 36% right now. wth are you taking about?
538 the pollsters who’s averages have underestimated Trump in all 100 state elections he has been in since 2016. 100 for 100… imagine thinking this time will be different
538 isn't a pollster ...
Not only that-the pollsters have not underestimated Trump in 100/100 that’s just not true. Trump was generally underestimated in 2016-but polls were far more accurate in 2020
The 2020 polls were further off than 2016, IIRC
@@kineahora8736 yes it is true according to 538s averages. Name the state that they underestimated Trump in. Any state since 2016
@@dgthe3 No they are not, but they don’t filter out the bogus polls with clear biased/agenda like RCP does. Which is why RCP averages have both under estimated and overestimated Trump. More often than not underestimate him but at least occasionally they overestimate him. 538 has never overestimated him. Not once
Because Kamabla is done
Janet Jackson is right about her!!
I didn't realize her real name was Kamabla. Wow, you've really convince me about her.
@@ricodetroit yes
You listen to Toyota Jackson for political news???
😂😂😂😂😂
@@inorite4553 who
Hmm, I heard a couple weeks ago from Republicans that popstars should just stay out of politics because their opinions don't matter.
Because they pic sane senet
Not someone who call Himself nazi and also he said that he like underage kids