Are Games Workshop Constant Releases Cannibalizing its own Sales??
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- Опубликовано: 5 фев 2025
- In This Episode we talk about whether the huge volume of new products and previews all the time impact each other. Does an excited consumer lose interest in an item because an even cooler item is previewed 5 seconds later and so forth.
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Chasing ever increasing quarterly profits is how old businesses kill themselves and provide nutrients back into the forest soil, allowing the cycle of life to continue.
Amen! I was a GW store manager for nearly two years, and I was a victim of sales quotas I couldn't keep hitting. In the long run I'm glad because the job really damaged my enjoyment of the hobby. My hats off to those that can make it a job AND retain a high level of enjoyment of the hobby.
14:06 Maybe the real Trench Crusade are the friends we made along the way...
And by made, you mean 3d print right?
@@danfocke oh that's way better.
"Army" is a strong word...lol
"Most people just buy stuff to have it and then do nothing with it."
Why are you calling me out? Is this over the tariffs?
It is not only the high pace of previews. The Gitmob box really caught me on the wrong foot with its pricing. Yeah, GW is expensive, always has been expensive and always WILL be expensive. And the only way their prices go is up.* But every now and then they just raise the bar too quickly, make the jump too painful - and for me it has been this box. 180€ for nine models, of which only one is unique and the rest is four pairs of duplicates with minimal options. Others might disagree, and more power to them, but for me the value just is not there.
* Exceptions exist, but I will be damned if they ruin my rant! ò.ó
I remember when first getting into the hobby during mid 90s. You had your monthly white dwarf as a main source of creating a hype on upcoming things. The big difference IMO compared to todays releases is the time after. It didn't feel like outdated when hitting the shelfs due to five new release announcements happened in the meantime.
Now the issue I see is ever rising prices combined with limited time offers and super fast edition cycles. I would appreciate a grace peroid, e.g. a year after last codex release before the next edition. This time could be filled by other stuff - cool vs boxes that appear to be vanished or crusade stuff, exploring alternative sub-game formats like boarding actions (awesome!!!)
best times ever!
A box of 16 plastic archers for the High Elves for 16-8€!
Best example of this on my end was ash wastes followed up by Heresy second ed, roughly equivalent dollar wise but one came with a mountain of space marines and a giant tank and the other had like 20 human size dudes and some other bits... and now Ive seen ash wastes pop up for half price on Amazon multiple times
I've become zen about it. Boxes come. Boxes go. Some boxes everyone is excited for sit on the shelf forever. It's hard to know which one is which (unless it's Blood/Dark Angels). And, if you miss the box, just wait until Christmas. It'll be fine.
Just a battery in the Matrix would make a such a great t-shirt. Lol
My biggest issue with GW's release cycle is that whole sections of model ranges will go without being restocked because they are busy putting out release boxes that they don't make enough of to meet demand anyways.
Yeah man, just recently got a $15 dollar voucher from GW, and more than half their models are out of stock
When I first got back into the hobby a couple of years ago, I was part of the problem: disposable income and bought everything I thought was cool. All that did was create a massive pile of shame as I realised how long it took to build and paint. I've now matured and focus on my existing factions but it took a while to get out of the FOMO cycle.
This is spot on. My basement is full of FOMO purchases of new GW stuff. They do release fantastic products.
The perfect customer, the one with a pile of unused stuff and no further expectations
I dunno, I'm older - way older than most of the people commenting, I'll reckon - and after getting the 30K models I was interested in, I'm basically purchasing one-offs to have minis for a DND campaign I run every month for friends. I doubt I'll EVER play a 30K game, but I've got my army all purchased and I'm basically done.
..which is really funny, because I'm probably the GW ideal demographic, loads of expendable income, love painting, want cool models to paint. But right now, even with my new airbrushing hobby (which allows me to get ~30 dudes table ready over a weekend), I have enough to paint for the next 5 years, so I just eye the new releases as FOMO fodder I'm just not willing to shell cash out on.
If Inquisition or Mordheim started re-releasing, then this might change. But anything with a ruleset that changes every couple of months is basically on my "I don't really give a damn" list.
People just love shop talk:) and that’s why we are here.
Also underworlds is fun and I didn’t expect it to be.
its actually one of their best games, super fun
I've become immune to new release excitement by: reminding myself that new products are going to be available for a very long time, so there's no sense of urgency, and I find having unassembled and unpainted minis mildly stressful. I also try and only buy one kit at a time, so those FOMO boxes aren't that interesting to me unless I'm already planning on buying everything in that box beforehand.
initial opinion is: "This isn't for me. This isn't for me. This isn't for me. OOOOH, i like this one! This isn't for me. This isn't for me."
As a customer, I have the luxury of ignoring most GW releases and focusing on the ones I like. But as a store, I can only imagine how hard it is to keep the excitement train going on some items.
Gitmobs are a great army, but not a standard GW army, so some folks love them, but more people are indifferent to their existence.
I just buy stuff. I was hoping that by getting a dog, I'd be more responsible with my spending habits. Nope. Now I just lament that I can't build anything because I've got a dog in my lap😅
Same I have a cat who won’t let me paint or build any minis, have to lock the door now it’s quite rude of him 🐈⬛
No. I tend to be a missile man (or Tunnel Vision Man), I'm locked on to what I want and that is what I pursue regardless of the flurry of stuff GW is releasing during that time. I do however have a close friend who used to be a sucker for that AND he was single w/no kids, making good money, and living at home (no expenses lmao)! ... at his height he had like 10 different GW collections across 3 different GW war games and was still going. I think he was up to 5 for 40k, 4 for AoS, and he had Death Guard for HH. None were under 4k in size.
It's hard to tell, honestly. Speaking for myself, there haven't been releases near each other that cause me to want the subsequent more than the previous.
After watching your vids and getting a better picture of what's going on, I think the FOMO and rush of limited releases is less a marketing thing and more of them using third party vendors as their warehouses.
Owning 3D printer definitely cures your FOMO... but it'll inflict you with a different FOMO, FOMO of collecting/buying 40k STL files before James from the Workshop descends on the author and zap away the file.
the eldar chirp was an absolute beaut.
It was X+10% ... prior to Covid their sales expectations and goals were ludicrous. They ate through store managers quickly. I lasted two years and that was it. lol.
I think GW simply doesn't care what box they sell as long as they can extract the maximum amount of money from their customers at any given time. AFAIK the production costs for GW are so low that they don't care if one particular box doesn't sell well as long as the maximum number of 40k/AoS/OW/LI/Necromunda boxes is sold in total. And unsold boxes are mostly the problem of external retailers anyway.
FOMO! FOMO! FOMO!
Hey, did I mention FOMO! Do you need this? No? But FOMO!
The GW marketing manual pages 1-1000.
When I'm out Trench Crusading, I like to Trench Crusade with my Trench Crusade, on my Trench Crusade.
Trench Crusade.
😆
GW could stop the Darkoath box issue by not releasing new products for a game (e.g., AoS) after the announcement of a new edition. Or release miniatures that have free pdf rules during that time.
The solution is to just play Forgeworld games. They don't come out with new stuff nearly as often so you can actually enjoy it, build it and paint it before the next one.
I’m finding this with Old World trying to plan purchases to fill out an army and then 20 more kits drop to distract me and when I go back to order things they are out of stock…
Man, to your point about customers buying stuff just to have it and not do anything with it... I'm painting up Beastmen, I have 2500pts primed maybe half of that painted. I have another couple thousand points unbuilt that fleshes out the army. I'm super excited about their upcoming old-world release. And what am I doing in the meantime? Buying up old OOP Lizardmen. Why? When am I even going to build these? I guess my FOMO comes from the other end, not new releases, but the old stuff in limbo that may not be supported again.
I stopped caring for previews, honestly. I just buy what is in stock in my shop. If there isn't any, well no big deal, I just tinker with what I already have at home. Or 3D print.
The same time period last year felt a lot more dry in terms of releases, but I could be wrong. However I imagine the new edition launches of Sigmar and Kill Team created a bit of a mess on their distribution end and that's why things things are feeling so jammed up right now.
I am not sure if i can agree with you. Ye for some people it might cannibalise the sales. Like timmy who has to buy every box or buys 2-3 leviathan/skaventide boxes for whatever reason... those timmys might have financial trouble to buy those boxes if they release so fast, but i dont think so, as timmy normally buys multiple boxes even if he doesnt need them. Most players just stick to their army or buy a new box if it is a good deal, either because minis are really cool or its really cheap compared to normal prices.
Like the gits box is really bad. Ye models are cool but they are bad for an army, model count is low, even the price is not great. In europe, at flgs with 20% discount or so, it costs 140 in preorder. An army book is 50€, a spearhead is 90€ at flgs price. So for the 140€ of the gits army box you basically just get the cards for free ... if you need them. Because the models inside are basically just a spearhead. Do for that price its better to buy the moon gits spearhead + book, which expands better into a 2k army. For the soulblight, personnally i have 0 hype. I am waiting for the nighthaunts and hope they get a cool box. I dont have them yet but this could be my starter point, but only if they get a box and its cool/a good deal. Everything else announced for 2025 for now is boring to me, so i guess ill save the money for later/2026...
TRENCH CRUSADE MENTIONED
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My example is close to what you are asking. I was going to buy the Gitmob box (still for sale on the US website at tike of commenting). I saw it was 9 models and the box for 230 and though 'ok that's steep' but I wasn't off the train yet. Then I saw a review of the book, which revealed it was mostly a copy paste job, including typos from the free pdf. The review included a picture of the 'gitmob Spearhead' which was more models than the army box, no book, and will be 70-80 bucks cheaper. At that point I didn't order the army box.
the most hyped things are marines release, where you can barely tell one chapter apart from other if you're not that much into 40k. I can't get excited or hyped about another human in power armor mini they constantly release
I wonder how the current market environment compares to 15 years ago, too. There's zero competition to GW product right now, so there's nothing else generating interest in the entire tabletop industry which impacts their scale of operation. There's no "rising tide lifts all boats" when you're the only boat. Maybe continuously pumping new product is the only way to generate and sustain the interest in a broad sense?
Or maybe the inverse, there is a lot of competition who are on a smaller scale, so they keep pumping out small releases to try and keep people hooked on GW product and not looking at competitors who may have comparable or nicer models or a ruleset that doesn't get busted when a new codex comes out
@CallanFraser-f4k That's why I mentioned scale of operation. Outside of GW, tabletop miniatures are practically a cottage industry.
Problem with the gits box is the chariots seem bad and the wolves seem bad and the book won't be legal for another month and the doom diver isn't in the box lol
I enjoyed Spearhead last summer, threw together 4 spearheads. But my primary focus is 40k and Combat Patrol. So it was kind of a relief to have a financial break after the Blood Angels. No my bank account is going to cry as I am psyched up for World Eaters and Black Templars on the horizon. I love the look of the goblin and skeleton spearheads, but it's very likely that it will be a pass for me.
The release cycle has worn me out, I'm rarely as excited about releases as I used to be and don't feel the FOMO as much.
Garbage time is the best time. and I was the fool that bought that Dark Oath Savages. It's sitting there, opened. Unbuilt. Lying to myself that I will have the spearhead built by April
Not sure if they are cannibalising sales, but they are definitely cannibalising hype in my neck of the woods. If GW previews something, not even the hardcore GW fans in our club chat about it for longer than 10 minutes.
We NEED to see a big Trench Crusade army in the cabinet! Maybe one of each?
I gave up trying to keep up with GW releases long ago.
I still buy their launch boxes occasionally, as they are usually good deals just for the models.
But I couldn't care less about the rules anymore, I don't have the time or energy to "keep current" with them.
I was going to buy the new Warhammer Quest box set, but then another one wasn't released a month later, so I didn't buy either.
When they were constantly out of stock on new releases I bought a really nice printer to handle it myself. Best decision I’ve made.
I only play 40k in terms of the “big” GW games. It does not matter to me how fast they cycle because I am not buying everything. They don’t lose eldar sales for me because I wasn’t going to buy them anyway.
I am annoyed at the cycling of editions at nonstop speed. But the model releases? Nah, I’m fine.
Everyone becomes a mostly non-buying customer with TT at some point. I’m surprised 40k guys stick with it? Ten editions is pretty nuts.
They seem to think sucking new people in, and trying to fleece those who are on their second or third release, rather than get the older guys stoked about the game again (that where huge purchases would be made…for those of you who are older and have F off money I think you’d agree). The math must work, given whatever assumptions they’re making about their customers though.
Question is are the assumptions correct?
i think gitmob are gonna suffer from the same thing kruleboyz have been suffering from for 3 or 4 years now. really underwhelming rules killing the enthusiasm for otherwise beautiful sculpts.
I know my interest in the Gitmob waned drastically after seeing Soulblight. Then again, I was looking at both from the POV of using them in TOW, and the SBGL work better there than the absolutely huge wolves.
the insane pace i have had to stay at to paint all the releases i wanted, chaos long war and dread talon boxes,blood angels set, dark angel xmas box, now krieg and upcoming Eldar.....thank god thats all the armies i have interest in done lol. blood angels and dark angels will be ready for Adepticon, plan to do Eldar and Krieg afterwords to finish 2025
I totally get old invetory seems to sell slow but at least for our online. People don't buy the new stuff if they don't see 100 other skus for gw.
I remember buying the best seller foundations wrack and not selling much but as soon as I got best 200a and B I started selling stuff on best foundation wrack.
Great Box?? 200$ for 9 miniatures??? Ugh.
I’m not sure the release schedule for models and/or codexes is the major problem. Here’s what’s affected my buying.
1. Codexes/Tomes being released too close to an edition update.
2. Major changes from current edition to new edition which invalidate existing faction rules and require “indexes”.
3. Absolutely horrible game balance at release time of new editions.
You just can’t trust that a given faction will be decently viable until you actually see at least the new indexes and there’s no guarantee that the release of the faction’s full rules will actually be better than the index.
Why is there limited interest in the new Gitz box? Because it’s a huge price for a handful of models, that are of limited in game quality, for a faction that has lackluster performance on the tabletop.
I think you could make an argument that all three of those points can be linked to a speed up in releases.
Yes
I completely lost interest in the hyperfast release cycles of companies like GW. I'm not looking forward to anything, just completing ongoing projects.
People need to learn to slow down when it comes to hobbying. When I first got into the hobby a year and a half ago, I got caught in this cycle of building a bunch of new models, getting frustrated with the painting process, and then buying more models to get that building dopamine. It wasn’t until I actually put in the time to get good at painting that I managed to escape that cycle.
The FOMO that GW pushes is pretty terrible, and preys a lot on the aforementioned cycle, but that’s what happens when your business depends on continually growing profits.
I was very excited to collect a whole army of wolf riders. Then the rules came out. ABSOLUTE GARBAGE. I don't mind weaker rules, but the ones they've released are borderline unusable. Same goes for Dark Oath. Terrible rules in 3rd ed, still bad rules now. The rules matter. Lots of people want the goblins but they also want an army that they can deploy against the likes of 'Slaves to Darkness' and feel like they actually have a chance of not being instantly slaughtered.
The uncertainty towards the end of 3rd probably also came from GW axing whole factions and big swaths of surviving factions/Underworlds units etc. That sort of thing will make the punters very cagey about their purchasing decisions.
I've certainly delayed when I suspected an army was coming soon or within the year getting a major update. The constant treadmill is yet another reason why I've moved on from Games Workshop games. There's always some new thing that you've just got to have.
The Gitmob set just has too few models in it.
I think it's a perception thing, which isn't to say you're wrong. There are two chariots and some big cav models that have the 'value' but it doesnt translate into 'feeling' like a deal.
@ you know the drill. Their point cost makes the word “Army” deceiving.
GW could get get around the issue of late releases in editions not doing well because the rules will be outdated soon (or immediately lol) by having the rules up for free on their website, just saying... Not that it'll happen they make too much money from books, but I genuinely think that increased model sales would make up for it, so long as they could keep them in stock of course.
The former CEO of GW said in his interview with Jordan Sorcery that the reason they do codex releases is specifically because it boosts model sales. So not selling codexes would decrease the burst in sales and fomo that they’re pushing with the army boxes, so they definitely won’t stop them
I agree with the release schedule is a lot but at the same time I feel like it also helps with keeping constant sells revolving for stores for example I’m excited about the gitmob and will be buying it but the emperor children I could care less about.
I was planning to pledge to Westfalia's Trench Crusade models that I've been hyped about for months. Then I saw some other digital Centigors and I'm no longer backing the Trench Crusade models
What are your predictions for 2025 age of sigmar road map?
Do you really see so much overlap in sales across the factions? Seems like their lackluster battletomes are more of a factor than the fact that a widely different faction has its next box coming out in a month or two.
the fact that the battletomes are also a mix of copy and paste index rules and/or full of heavy nerfs for the army and a bunch of typos and mistakes sure doesnt put me in a rush to go buy one either i can tell you that
As somene with FOMO OCD I just dont follow Gamesworkshop .... at all... with how abusive their pricing is its not good to follow something like that
Do the boxes need to fly off the shelves for them to be worth stocking? Sure some army boxes may sit there for a while but at some point someone is going to want to buy a Darkoath Combat Patrol and you can just upsell them on the army box that has more stuff for more money!
When you have a five year plan exact timing is according to plan (roadmap) not... outside influence (lay of the land).
I never worked for or with GW but from the outside it looks like they are building up and maintaining a brand (GW/Warhammer) most of all?
I think they just want to shift units, how, what, does it support game growth I think they don't care. I think what they do care about is drowning the competition with constant noise
As to the Gitz box, something massively missed for me aesthetically and I don't know exactly what. Honest though the rules previewed will probably kill more sales than the pending undead. Undead is fine, but I am not playing right now.. When I decided I wasn't interested in the launch I parked it for the edition, I will still do hobby but for qty of games I'll play particularly GW games (they are increasingly not for me)
This brings me to the new edition issue. Most people I know will stop buying 40k in autumn this year because the next edition is nine months away. If I am not grabbed by an edition at the start now, I'll just park it. They want too much money for disposable books for what is probably going to be a tertiary game at best.
I will identify projects that are definitely of interest. For example, this summer, I am budgeting for a new Legion core set and the hard plastic new kits coming throughout the year. I am also allowing for maybe being K'47 curious about Adepticon. I tend to do this more with companies that give better long-term indications. If I have spare funds, I might look at other projects if they are on my wish list of possible projects, but I tend not to jump into new armies on impulse. I will be tempted but often it can wait, the new shiny has caught me too often before, not I crumble to those projects that are just that building temptation in the background
Hahaha nice intro!
Plan way in advance.. If x army get y, buy if z army get .. buy and so on. If gw hit wishlist I preorder if not eey.. go to closet of shame. Once in a while tournament force a order from current stuff. Rare that I buy just becouse its shiny.. need to be on my want/wishlist first.
Let’s not pretend they can drop prices if they need to move units. The secondary sellers they dump skaven on can only absorb so much before prices need to come down. We’re just not there yet.
Dunno what they are smoking over there, pricing is all over the place and follows no recognisable logic or pattern and then there is the design decisions, lets remove sanguinary wings and give lemartes a ball gag, a grail ? Nah , here u have an apple watch….oh and ur cool chapter specific dreadnought ? -we made it more generic, thanks for asking…then they do Emperors Children and its the best release since sliced bread. Ur designers hate loyalists ? Also it doesn‘t seem to matter how cool some of the AoS models are or what marketing they do, average 40k battlebrother is like „nah man, i don‘t give a rats ass about aos“ …
I'm going to have to go to Paaaaatreon to request that sprue goo video, aren't I?
Do what you do best and as much of it as possible. Stack it high and watch it fly!
The sheer amount of Kickstarter successful offerings CLEARLY DEMONSTRATE the market demand currently outstrips the supply when it come to gaming. The iron is hot...strike!
Trench Crusade is a state of being.
Yes yes yes
Not allow shared miniatures is hurting their sales. Gitmob is worthless to me as it includes useless AoS books.
im not really into fomo purchasing and buying new stuff from companies ive had plenty of trauma from card games when it comes to that, ive been trying to build my first army of khorne demons and trying to find any of those figures locally has been a real challenge, a lot of my wargaming stores dont carry older models like that apparently or cant get them restocked, id really like to support my local stores but i had to buy most of my army online instead