Eclipse Forecast #1 + Several Days of Severe Weather Ahead
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- Опубликовано: 12 июн 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
The 2024 total solar eclipse is just a few days away (Monday, April 8), and models are starting to converge on a solution for who might see clear skies and who might be socked in clouds along the totality path. In this video, we'll dive into the meteorology along the totality path to see where eclipse-hampering clouds are more likely to form.
We also have several days of severe weather on tap, including on eclipse Monday. Tomorrow (Saturday, April 6), SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for parts of Nebraska and Kansas. A potent trough and surface low will move into the central Plains, yielding a severe threat with all hazards possible, but limited moisture and an unfavorable storm mode should preclude a more intense event. Then, multiple days of severe weather are expected to start next week from Texas into the Southeast as a second trough makes its way eastward and interacts with rich Gulf moisture. At this time, the tornado threat seems low, but large hail and damaging winds are a distinct possibility.
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction
2:49 Discussion of Saturday's severe risk
13:44 Eclipse forecast
43:47 Discussion of Monday-Wednesday severe risks 
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Great video! I hope everyone gets to see the eclipse!
Thank you!
I read in an eclipse chaser's blog that a thin wisp of cirrus can actually be the best case scenario - it can help you see phenomena that are otherwise subtle, like the edge of the shadow moving in and the change in sky color right before/after totality. Super excited here in central IN! Have a great eclipse everyone!!!
That is very true!
Me in Central Texas: So you're telling me there's a chance!
Every once in awhile I come across a comment that makes me erupt into laughter. 10/10
@@erselley9017 🤣
Heard Reed shout you out the other day on his live stream. Would be nice to see a Dominator/Convective Chrinicles collab!!
Love Reed; that would be awesome!
Been sleeping most of the day and missed this. My Dad and I will be going up to Plattsburgh NY from Albany for the eclipse. Just find a parking lot somewhere and check it out. As for today as I am writing this, for Saturday, this could be a sneaky set up. That is a potent little low so I think we could see a handful of QLCS tornadoes to go along with the winds. If this had better moisture, man this would be April 2012 for sure. That trough is pretty crazy.
As for the next week severe weather, that is a really robust system. Those 3 days look especially good with the good warm sector and S and SW winds. Tuesday and ESPECIALLY Wednesday look especially concerning for the most part as the system really gets going and that has some potency for a decent regional tornado outbreak on the 2 days. Wednesday still looks to be the big day on the 3 regardless for something REALLY robust. Southeast tornado season is back.
My gf and her friend are gonna gamble on southern Illinois. So i sent them this video. Hope it stays clear!
Welp, if didn’t move from New England (NH) to the arm pit of America (the southeast [GA then AL]), my wife and I might have been able to enjoy this.
Safe travels to everyone, and always enjoy the way you break the atmosphere in a concise and accurate manner. Thanks for the update much love from texas ❤
Thank you!
Hoping for clear skies in Montréal :D
Kansas - needs the rain, not the naders.
Can you talk about the setup for the Arbor Day tornado outbreak that just happened a couple weeks ago
Breakdown is in the works but it might take awhile with my tour schedule
Late question Trey but in a sounding that has instability throughout the atmosphere but larger than 5 dew/temp spreads, are towering cumulus still possible because the parcels are freely ascending or does the 5 difference general rule apply regardless if a sounding has a high EL level.
Yes, you'll often see that in severe setups with relatively drier air aloft. Updrafts are often able to go up, especially if the low-levels are moist, so you will get towering cumulus. However, those cumulus will really struggle due to dry air entrainment.
I appreciate the video Trey. You do a great job of explaining all the details.
Thank you!!
Thanks for the update / I will be in Southeastern Missouri visiting my sister where the eclipse will be 100% total / I just had a question that has always confused me / severe storms thrive with wind shear and hurricanes do not // if hurricanes are made up of severe storms, it would seem they also would thrive // thank you
You're absolutely right; with tornadic supercells, we want shear. The speed shear helps tilt the updraft to allow the precipitation/downdraft to fall away from the updraft, leading to storm persistence, and directional shear helps induce storm rotation. Hurricanes, on the other hand, are vertically stacked systems...in other words, they thrive when the low-pressure circulation at each level of the atmosphere is stacked right on top of each other. Wind shear induces tilt into the system and prohibits this from happening, which is unfavorable for hurricane intensification.
@@ConvectiveChronicles
I saw total eclipse today in Piggott, Arkansas // beyond anything I have ever seen before
Thank you Trey! This time DFW is in the bullseye 🎯
I bet they've been keeping an eye nervously on the forecast at IMS since they have been selling tickets for a whole event at the speedway based around the eclipse! Looking better though than some of those too early to be reliable model runs from a week ago or so. Thanks for the video Trey!
Thanks for the weather update!Actually changed plans yesterday from southern Arkansas to now shooting for northern Maine, hoping the forecast holds!
Definitely looking good up there!
Great video Trey thanks for the information on the eclipse looks like its going to be cloudy in my area right now so I might not get to see it but we'll know for sure the closer we get to it but it's looking cloudy
Thank you! Yeah, things can and probably will change over the next couple days.
Thanks for the info for the severe weather threat/eclipse.
Just came home from stormspotting because we had our own day of severe weather here in germany.
Even managed to capture a supercell which is pretty rare up here!
That’s awesome; congrats!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you!
This will be interesting to see what the eclipse does do the severe weather. Great video
Thank you! I agree
Its unfortunate we probably will be very cloudy, my dads work is closing monday so the workers can see the eclipse but yeah... Anyway thank you for the updates Trey
I’m hoping N/NE TX can get at least some breaks in the clouds for a decent view.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah I am hoping so too especially since this only is a thing that happens every couple hundred years or so
Gotta love purchasing tickets back in January (when they were cheap) to go to Texas and then having it not panning out 😭
Dang!
Hey Trey. Great work as always with forecast💪 This eclipse will be on my 35 birthday🥳
Next total solar eclipse in my area (in Poland) will be in 2157 so I'm not sure that I can wait that long🤣 but we had total eclipse two years ago so now your turn to se this awe inspiring view and ...faces of all flat earthners trying find explanation😂 keep up great work👊
Haha thank you so much! Happy early birthday!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you💪. I'm so happy because finally i will have 18 years old.... seventeenth time :D
At this point im convinced buffalo gets the worst weather in the lower 48
I have a question... could tomorrow be a rare case of a Low-dewpoint derecho .. we have everything, 40 dewpoints, a strong surface low and a 100+ Knot LLJ, its a rare thing but im curious if u think a low-dewpoint derecho in theory has a chance tomorrow.
No, the extent and severity of the squall line will likely not meet derecho criteria.
@@ConvectiveChronicles fair enough... i studied it and look at it and it really looked promising but i can see the line not going too long