Forecast Discussion - April 18, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Possible from Texas to the Midwest
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- Опубликовано: 2 июн 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) today from central Missouri eastward to the western Ohio Valley and a broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending down into south Texas. A cold front will progress east, initiating storms along it by mid-afternoon. A mix of supercells and line segments are expected across the Enhanced Risk with an all-hazards threat, including very large hail and a couple tornadoes. Farther southwest, the cold front will overtake the dryline, yielding a few storms with a risk for damaging outflow winds and very large hail in a strongly unstable environment but more weakly sheared environment. Some folks have compared the environment to that which spawned the infamous Jarrell, TX, F5 tornado in 1997, but we'll discuss why it's not a good analog in the video.
My Jarrell breakdown video: • The Jarrell, TX, F5 To...
Corfidi (1998) paper on Jarrell: www.spc.noaa.gov/publications...
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Sheesh can’t remember the last time STL had hail forecasted this badly, need a new windshield anyway. Thanks for the update Trey!
When you mentioned the zippering action, I immediately thought of Jarrell, but only because it is the very spectacular and extreme case.
The motion on the Jarrell storm was, well, ridiculous, and quite rare.
We're in McLennan County, north of Waco (West TX).
Will be watching the skies closely for initiation today.
Thanks as always for the excellent updates Trey. Love your channel.
Thank you! Be safe today!
Yeahhh I heard "zippering" and got a lil excited lol
THANK YOU for brining up the Jarrell analog with *additional context,* Twitter has been driving me crazy! It’s like screaming Plainfield at every NW flow event!
Just east of St Louis. Checked the SPC page first thing in the morning. No biggie. Checked again a bit later (😳) and started looking for you to do a video.
I check it all day I literally wait til 2 am by me for the 12Z to update
I KNEW from the start of this you were gonna cover the analog what I see people throwing around on X and youtube to compare this to Jarrell, TX. Like these are chasers and stuff I am seeing almost like....I wouldn't say guaranteed is the word but the wording seems "confident" that we may see a Jarrell event. I am like WHAT?! Like I compared the last week plains event the previous week that it feels like a April 2012 set up but never would I say in a sense "we will see April 2012" like I am seeing people throw around with this. Jarrell, TX event was.....It was like a one in a 100+ year set up and so unique that I don't think we will EVER see that again in our lifetimes so the analog of that being thrown around so weird like this is odd to me. Yes it's a "Zipper set up" but again I think the hype of what people are doing right now on this online is scary to me....I truly see this event 99% hail for the TX area with wind. I don't see it much as anything else with THAT much instability in the profiles and sounding in TX Already. That's a insane dry layer too above 850mb.
Now I can see today over-perform a bit than models hint. The morning Soundings from Dallas, Little Rock, Springfield, are decent. The Little Rock one is interesting with a semi-loaded gun but stupidly deep moisture in place already to 850mb.
Hail gonna be stout in TX for sure but the tornado threat I can't much see it still...not with what I am seeing. THe tornado threat for MO is gonna be interesting how much can stay discrete and honestly I THINK they needed to put the EHN or a 5% tornado risk down in and around the Northern Little Rock sector. Based off that morning sounding and how decent the parameters are for stuff to fire down there, I will not be surprise to see a pretty decent tornado or 2 down there. Granted that's a fatter cap to bump out but compared to TX.....that is a much better wind profile that will improve a tad bit more as the afternoon goes on.
Hopefully we get a supercell in NWA. Wanna take some photos from the mountains
I love these breakdowns.
I have extensive nerve damage in my spine, and have been an unwilling amateur meteorologist for the last several years because of it. Cool to see in detail what's actually going on.
I assumed it was mostly triggered by pressure changes, but even when the baro is static, if big weather comin' it fuuuuuccs me up.
I still have no idea what could be the trigger if not baro.
Thank you! Sorry to hear about your nerve issues; I’m not sure what could bring that on weather wise
Thanks trey.
Enhanced 😢 Hopefully, I'll get a chance to watch this before the weather gets here. Thx for the update!
Started watching your forecast discussions this year. I always wanted to be a meteorologist but gave up in my first physics class lol. Still regret it but I am enjoying learning more about severe weather forecasting from your videos. Just curious, what your background is? Self-taught or meteorology degree?? If you don't mind sharing. Thank you for the videos!
Thank you!! I’ve been self-studying severe storms meteorology forever, but I did study meteorology in college. I got my Bachelor’s in Geography (Meteorology/Climatology emphasis) at Arizona State before moving on to do my Master’s in Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, where I did research under the guidance of Howie Bluestein.
It’s Trey!!
Welp. 7pm just east of St Louis and we just quit sheltering from tornadoes in the area. Looks like a confirmed one went a few miles north and another to our south. We lucked out, no hail, just heavy rain.
Glad you came out unscathed!
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this event and do you think the hrr is being overzealous with the cape today or not
Thank you! CAPE is expected to be pretty large, especially into TX, so it’s probably pretty good
@@ConvectiveChronicles your welcome and thanks for explaining it to me
Just subscribed! Appreciate the information! Anything of concern for the Flint, Michigan area anytime soon?
Thank you! You should be all clear for awhile!
Hey Trey I know it’s the next day but I was wondering if you would be able to possibly dive deeper into this event in the near future and why the event progressed the way it did. As a local southern Illinois storm chaser it looks like we had multiple strong/violent tornadoes imbedded in those QLCS/Line Segments we saw last night. Looks like a pretty significant tornado happened near Carlyle Illinois (that I witnessed) and a couple up north of I70.
Unfortunately, I probably won't have time since I've started my tour guide gig and will be pretty busy through June, but I believe it was simply interaction with the warm front. The enhanced low-level shear along the warm front was the likely culprit in allowing those embedded vortices to occur.
Trey, thanks for the great videos. I'm an amateur storm chaser in the Central Texas area. I've been casually chasing for over 20 years now. I got my first tornado on video in 2020 and second in 2023. I'm not sure where you're at, but the storms down here in Texas are often HP storms and you often get storm clusters and mergers which disrupt storm rotation as was the case April 7-8. I'm learning how to read hodographs from you're videos and Cameron Nixon's. I want to make a trip or two up to the central plains this spring where there are fewer trees, fewer population centers, and generally more photogenic supercells. Are there any opportunities coming up in April or are we looking more toward May now?
Thank you! I’ve chased in central Texas many times; it’s very difficult. Things do look to quiet down for a bit until late April, when long-range models are hinting at a significant uptick in severe weather across the central/southern US.
Hoping we get some good stuff in DFW
Yes total my car so I can buy a better one 😌 🤣
I was actually hoping to ask, and knew before i had even watched the video (great vid btw) and without looking at any models, but i wonder how we could demonstrate probabilites of tornadic weather in low shear high cape events without using Jarrel because of how specific it was and rare to create a general common theory about these events, like how our confidence arises from events with high shear low cape events or moderate levels (ohio valley) and using short range guidances, because it seems really hard to know: my suggestion would be calculate the distance of zippering by which supercells will develop around (shown by convective models) and then calculate the chances from there on based on surface vortices about the zippering boundary and i kind of wish there were like 5% or 10% like probability maps that show the chances of an event occurring to produce a minimal tornado like we know for normal events, because this sort of scenario is like the great difference between cold core vs regular setups and you just dont know how much of a chance of an appearance of a supercell would do and proceed being tornadic in these lesser occurring events, like winterset IA in the cold core setups, which is still a bit of an unexplained event to what was the biggest factor for such a tornado that rapidly condensed. I dont know if im going crazy but the future of weather technology is gonna be amazing like how Fujuita was able to change our minds to events that previously were clouded. @ConvectiveChronicles
These high CAPE low shear events are always wild cards. Most of the time, nothing significant happens, but there have been a few one-offs that do some crazy stuff.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesthats true actually that reminded me of the 1999 salt lake city event, i imagine that was quite similar?
I don’t believe that one had extremely high CAPE
@@ConvectiveChronicles the forecast ability on these events are crazy it almost feels like nowcasting is needed to warn it; i've read up on a better example: july 20 2019, NY, where by 22z july 20 the models struggled to pick up data, HRRR did not see much convection, intially weak cells in the Mohawk valley (it cn be argued that winds and warm air can be advected more easily enhancing the flow due to topgraphical and geography) but regardless the persistency was amazing and rare, what happened to be was steep lapse rates at the low level, weak large scale forcing allow these individual updrafts to form, but your right Jarrel just can't be touched on, the cases of propagation and cusp fronts and wrap arounds is just as rare as an f5 in europe, but then again, the 1990s was unusually crazy with all sorts of rare tornadoes, or it could just be that if we had this current era back then between 2010 to 2020 people would've this as an unusually crazy era, but science is just learning more so these events aren't as crazy or on their own ghost events since many have previously occurred, anyways my source is www.weather.gov/media/aly/LocalResearch/Online%20LocalResearch/Publications/Conference_Posters/2020/Evans_Poster_Jul2019.pdf
"glancing blow, little bit of curvature in the flow"
Severe weather in time for my birthday, April 29th. Although, I’m not sure if I’ll see any (I live in MN and can’t drive 😅). As always, I hope the tornadoes keep to the fields. ❤️🩹
Open field tornadoes are the best kind of tornadoes!
Why is it only a severe watch
Greatest threats are wind and hail