Can I Win Against STRONG OWS?!? - Ranked 1v1 Catan

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Season 11 Ranked 1v1 on Colonist
Lofi Boy #1 by de Pablos / de_pablos
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[@Nick-xu7ns]

14:30 is a spot that comes up in games like these often for everyone and I think really benefits from going through all the possibilities. Where there could or could not be a VP left.
We know there are 2 devs left since both road builders, YoPs, and monos have been played, leaving 5 unplayed knights and 5 VPs across 10 devs, but with 8 being held already. The possibilities of the remaining devs are basically either 1 VP + 1 knight or 2 knights (and very rarely 2 VPs but that’s super uncommon so not worth considering).
If your opponent does not have the last VP and we pull it, it’s basically game. Pretty good outcome.
If your opponent has the remaining VP, they’re at 12 and you’re at 11. If we don’t pull, you have road settle + city this turn to go to 13. You’ll need a road road settle and a city (or three roads for 2 settles if you come out the bottom of the 6/4/11) to win. Your opponent would need to settle + city + road road settle. Or to settle and take road. They don’t produce much road building and aren’t on a 3:1. We win the race against that quite often.
Final possibility is if your opponent has the VP already and we pull twice. We road settle for 12, and now we need two cities most likely. (Or a city + 3 roads + two settles). Opponent close to settling the wheat port and taking the lead and us being far from the city makes it tough.
I think overall it doesn’t benefit us to pop here. I also think we should never connect road because the brick is rare for us, and we’re in a race. It takes them forever to get 3 roads and if we track and know they’re close we can always extend then. Ending this turn on 11 points gives us near 0% chance to win the game imo.
We may still lose either way but I think not popping gives us the best chance to win. And I think using our brick to not settle really hurts us more than them.
Either way, gg and gl next. Sorry for the wall of text lmao.

[@itsOKKCatan]

At 11:46 you could've YOP'd for 2 brick and settled wood port instead of the following turn porting 4 wood and 4 sheep just for the settle but those 10s went crazy!!

[@alexandernater6284]

Yes, that was the most striking mistake. However, I would say going to 8-4 earlier instead of 8-3 was even worse. Also wasting roads for the connect when road was never in danger. This game was very winable, but it tolerates only a certain number of mistakes.

[@Northwoods309]

Thanks for the game. Didn’t see the stats but 10 absolutely crushed. Hard to win against those dice. The mono and double brick steal was a huge momentum shift. Definitely be more mindful of clearing your hand of roads when facing pure OWS. GL next.

[@DudeNolann]

Yeah I agree, that double road stealing was huge. He rolled that on his turn though, and mono'd it right away. I didnt have a chance to play them. Then with the knight into a 7 was just brutal 💀
Thanks for watching, GL next!