Is the PAC-12 Planning to Poach from Mountain West and West Coast Conferences? - PAC-12 Update
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- Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
- The Big Mountain provides an update on the PAC-12, Oregon State and Washington State.
"Reporting" from Canzano suggests possible poaching from the Mountain West and West Coast Conferences. Is this likely to happen given the current environment?
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I think at this point if WSU/OSU did get a inv from the ACC they should decline until they see what happens with FSU. I think forming a premier west coast conference is the best plan. The PAC-2 does not have the national resources to compete every year with the P2 so why not be competitive every year within your own conference you build AND keep regional rivalries/travel.
We 1000% agree with you!
Thx for the comment.
I agree. If I'm OrSU/WSU, why would I want to join the ACC, which is on shaky ground as it is right now? Especially if Florida State and others leave the ACC, why join an ACC that'll be a bulked up G5 conference? I'd rather try to rebuild the PAC than join another sinking ship in the ACC.
Once FSU and those teams leave the new PAC will be at the same level as the ACC!!! I think cal and standford and potentially Arizona and Arizona State coming back!!! Why join the ACC and travel across the country is very expensive for these schools that don’t bring in the same revenue like the P2!!!!
Plus, if &/or when the ACC breaks apart Stanford and Cal will possibly be left with little option than to return to a west coast solution as the money from the ACC “contract” dries up.
I'm a BSU fan and this pac 12 crap pisses me off. It's unfair to fans IMO. The fact that the pac is basically destroyed is a shame too. So much history... down the drain.
June has been a big time for realignment announcements the last 3 years. 2021 - Oklahoma & Texas head to the SEC. 2022 - USC & UCLA head to the B1G. 2023 - Pac-12 Implosion. Plus the academic year starts in July so you need to announce your move prior to June 30th or you will have to wait until the next year.
Thx. Appreciate the comment.
OSU/WSU can’t announce anything until after August 1, in order to retain all the PAC 12 assets. Otherwise they have to share with the departing 10.
Solid point.
Thx
1: oh boy have I been looking forward to this episode!
2: speculation is super fun!
3: you guys are really solid. Pros.
4: I heard the correct pronunciation of Gonzaga and it made my heart shine.
5: Canzano is really locked in on west coast sports. And it isn’t just Canzano saying this stuff, it’s also Wilner. And to a lesser degree Spencer McLaughlin. But Canzano and Wilner are absolutely lock step in what they are hearing, hearing it from, and reporting.
6: agreed all options on the table and rushing a decision not really the best idea, particularly as we will see a lot of fall out over the coming 24 months with other P5 conferences.
7: agree that Beavs and Cougs would likely relish the opportunity to jump to ACC or B12 if asked, but something tells me it would be only football. It just does not make financial sense for other sports. The departing P12 schools are already kicking themselves Per Canzano P12 AD for basketball and non revenue sports as it doesn’t pencil out and strains the athletes.
8: A west coast league, slightly more than a G5, and slightly less than a P5 is still a high probability plan, with WCC, AAC, MWC, OSU, WSU, and throwaways from the rapidly reforming P5”s. Because a “Super League” looks more and more likely by the day
9: Wilner reports that media deals are going to be likely be dispersed at the conference level, without regulation on who gets what, and the power schools will squeeze out the lower rungs, in favor of either more money for themselves, or to entice new top flight programs such as the Seminoles, or Utah.
10: even the MWC as currently configured isn’t tenable for the medium term. There are universities poised for a jump, and others who are clearly not even close from a revenue, endowment, enrollment, facilities, fandom, or athletic success POV.
11: why not have Canzano or Willner, or both on your show? It would be super interesting.
12: Schulz, Chen, Murphy, and Barnes have played their crappy poker hand magnificently to date. They have been fierce and steadfast simultaneously. Top notch. They are sitting on a war chest of about $275m at this point. So I know the ACC and or B12 might be the first choice, I think the rebuild of a west coast centric conference is most likely. But it will be several months to a year before the smoke has cleared enough to know.
13: June not realistic. Haven’t really heard it. The P12 traitorous ten depart in June. So maybe that is the logic.
Wow. So much here.
First things first. There is no guarantee that Gonzoga is dead. But we will do our best.
As for Canzano, as we replied to another commenter, we may have been a bit hard mer on him here then intended. Sometimes we get a bit excited.
Thx for all the input. I think we agree with the majority of your comments. We will continue to speak the importance of a WEST COAST PREMIER CONFERENCE.
Usually to not incur any additional payment or fees for leaving a team must notify a conference a year before they leave by June 30th. Now with the agreement that the PAC and Mountain West have not sure how it all would work.
$10+ million per team for the MWC/PAC agreement.
Waived if all 12 join, which is pretty much moot because MWC dissolution requires a 3/4 vote.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast now does that apply after the 2 year deal because if it doesn't the PAC could give invites out as long as they don't leave before the specified agreement lol always legal loopholes
Check out our channel. We did and episode on this agreement.
It applies for 2025 and 2026.
The current agreement is only for 2024 with an option for 2025.
We believe that the option will be accepted.
Thanks for the info. I don't believe that June is an arbitrary date USC & UCLA announced their departure in June, Texas & Oklahoma announced their departure in June. Looking back over the last 20 years, a large majority of departures are announced in June. Why? Well, July 1 begins a new athletic year. Now for some unknown reason, some conferences have allowed announcements in August to be effective the next athletic year. The Pac-12 was one of those conferences, witness Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. That is the outlier. Many conferences charge more to let you go if you tell them in July that you are leaving, and the Mountain West is one of those.
Like you, I question if we will know the ACC's situation by that date, or their intentions, but it is a possibility, and it is possible that what Canzano heard was part of someone's contingency plan. Anything is possible, but I think that I'm going to hold on to my money, at least right now.
Thx Terry.
Announcement dates per conference by-laws makes total sense to justify certain announcement dates.
ACC is Aug 15 for the following June 30
MWC is June 30
Thx for the help!
@@TheBigMountainPodcast Does the MWC have a 24-month notice requirement to leave or else a higher exit fee? That is why I think there may be a reason why to do something by June 30th 2024 with the 2026 season in mind.
The MWC has a 12 month requirement.
Must notify by June 30 to leave the following June 30.
It can be less then the 12 months, but that would double the exit fee.
And that is just the exit fee to the conference. It Doesn’t take into account the agreement with the PAC which calls for even more payments from the PAC.
I dunno if it was mentioned in the video but isn’t the MWC media contract up for renewal in 2026? That date corresponds nicely with the length of time the Pac2 has to make decisions. 11:18
July 1st is a conference bylaws notification date.
When discussing the plan for promotion and relegation that Boise State proposed to the Pac-2, I believe Matt Brown mentioned that he had talked to a WCC source who relayed to him that the WCC and Big West had talked about doing this. Putting these two together could get interesting.
Yes, it could.
This type of a proposal is probably a ways off into the future.
2 years is the notification period to keep the costs low for poaching MWC teams.
Why would any school want to join the conference of two…that isn’t a conference.
Yeah I’m not trusting this “source”, realignment speculation is an easy way to get clicks. That’s why I watch and respect you guys, because you always report the facts and make it clear when you are speaking your opinions. In my opinion I don’t see the PAC doing anything official until after the next football season.
Thx SM!
The MWC exit fee doubles from 17m to 34m with less than 2 years notice. That's the likely explanation for the June date, especially if the goal is to relaunch the Pac in 2026..
I saw the 3 Stooges all mentioned here in the comments.
When it comes to realignment:
Wilner isn’t a good source.
Canzano isn’t a good source. It’s why some people call him Clownzano.
McLaughlin isn’t a good source. He repeats what the others say and look up to them. It was bad enough they made him the Locked on Pac-12 guy and then they gave him the nation. The Locked On Huskies guys are great, but the rest I’ve heard around the country are terrible.
For the anti-ACC crowd, a reduced conference will still be better than a glorified MWC. You’ll lose TV and CFP money on that deal.
And I was saying this stuff about Wilner and Canzano a year ago before they were proven wrong on everything they were saying.
Who is left in the AAC to poach that is good enough for the ACC? I don't see any of the AAC which would be big enough. Possible after some Schools leave the ACC.
New PAC:
The 2 Pac12 holdouts
All 11 MW schools
Hawai'i
Gonzaga and St.Marys (help keep basketball a Power Confrence)
That’s a fantastic basketball conference for sure.
I figured Oregon St, and Washington St would wait, and join the ACC after schools leave for the P3.
I think you guys are spot on. I Am a long time Oregon State alum. I don't think either OSU or WSU have any real interest in the ACC. The Big 12 has no interest in OSU or WSU. What I believe will happen, The PAC 2, most if not all the WCC and the cream of the crop in the Mtn. West will form a new conference, probably with the prefix. PAC. Money wise, it will rely on football for the money side of things. The schools I believe OSU and WSU will cherry pick out of the Mtn. West are, San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State, Air Force, UNLV and Nevada. Hawaii, New Mexico, Wyoming, Utah State, and San Jose State just don't have enough football moxie to make the move. For football that would be a conference 9 schools and not on par with the BIG 12 but it would be good enough to be accepted into the football playoffs. Hawaii, New Mexico, Wyoming, Utah State, and San Jose State just don't have enough football moxie to make the jump.
take sdsu fresno st unlv san jose st, the rest are very small markets.
Thx for your comment and scenario.
Seems logical this could work.
I don’t know why folks insist on an idea of breaking up conferences to rebuild the PAC and can’t see what advantage it would give a reformed PAC. On top of that, some of the schools you have listed to take here don’t make much sense vs the ones lacking “football moxie”. I think the biggest one I don’t see an upside for taking vs the rest is Nevada, but you can find weaknesses with all of the chosen ones, for instance, SDSU has a brand new stadium that is empty on game days and they were horrible last year and are now rebuilding.
The fact is, all of the MW should remain in solidarity. They hold the stronger hand in this situation than OSU and WSU.
Excellent points as well.
And JY would agree with your MWC conclusion.
@@robert5755OSU and WSU need to realize that they are not P2 schools. With that being said, what makes the G5 special is their smaller markets and, in many ways, better atmosphere on game days. Especially within the MWC, branding and playing exciting, evenly matched football with true rivals is more important than market size. Take JY’s interest in the Cowboy’s for example, he got there because he saw them play in a late night time slot from PA at a time when they had an exciting quarterback. These teams have embraced that they may have only a small market of people that are their die hard fans, locals and alumni, but they will thrive on being somebody like a Penn State fans second favorite team who they can still watch after the PSU game.
I have been dragging my PA buddys with me to Poke games for a while now. They are PSU fans and Pitt fans. We have been to Boone to see App vs Wyo in the remnants of hurricane, Dekalb to see NIU, Champaign to see the fighting Illini, and Laradise for a Border War. My P2/5 buddies assessment, worst environment was in Champaign, a P2 school. Boone was weird but awesome at the same time, Dekalb stadium sucked and wasn’t very full but people were awesome and bars were cool for some blue collar guys, Laradise stadium was nice, full, and rowdy. Town was awesome with unique western bars.
OSU and WSU should take market size evaluations out of the equation and embrace what they can be. It doesn’t matter if they cherry pick based on this, they are not going to move up in the CFP deal against these other conferences regardless. Join the MWC in its entirety and embrace what you can become!
Canzono is more than some guy with a website.
Whether he is right or wrong is yet to be seen. He is dialed in more than you give him credit for. Again, he might be wrong he might be right, but he does have more knowledge than you when it comes to the PAC’s demise and rebuilding.
For sure, Canzano has knowledge and is tuned in. We may have come down a bit hard on him in this episode, but we are relying on the decision makers public comments as part of our basis for our opinions.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast I understand. You guys are good. Enjoy your perspective. As a broken hearted Beavs fan, this all has been unbearable with a lot of anger thrown in. Anyway, go Beavs and especially throwing love towards the baseball team!
After Gonzaga and St. Mary's, the next two best WCC schools (USF and SCU) are possibly comparable to the top 2 Big West schools (UCI and UCSD) this year. So beyond the top 2 schools a group of top WCC schools considered for the Pac 2 could maybe also have UCI and UCSD join them.
This is in addition to the MWC having 6 basketball programs that possibly would add more basketball-wise than anyone in the WCC aside from SMC and Gonzaga.
I don’t like the title.Poaching implies hunting illegally. I’m assuming any arraignments would be mutually beneficial.
Merge with the MWC if prospects for a big TV deal can be negotiated. There are already 7 MWC schools with better basketball programs. MWC football pribably needs to improve but isn't that far off ti building a powerhouse conference. Maybe add Gonzaga as a basketball inly member, the new conference would put a lot of pressure on ex PAC schools for their decisions to abandon the PAC for other conferences.
The pac 12 ( especially usc and ucla )?should have never made this move . Makes no sense geography. . It was greed. The paxc would have figured out issues, but , sadly money talks, not always for what makes sense. The west needs to stay west.
We would agree. And we think the west will stay the west with a few exceptions.
Waste of money, just join the MWC and be done with it.
This is a very understandable theory and could very well be the eventual end to all of this.
How about this? Pac folds into ACC. Bring Stanford and Cal back to a western division with WSU & OSU along with SMU. Add SDSU and Gonzaga. Then raid the Mountain West. Maybe UNLV, BSU, and possibly Fresno State and UNM for their markets.
Fresno and Albuquerque for the markets?
@Alohanate2004 1,000,000 and 900,000 in metro areas....so yes. Compare to other MW schools like Boise, Fort Collins, Reno, Laramie, Ogden, etc.
That sounds like a potentially probable, possible possibility that I, actually, am all for!
@chsmithins Yes, it is way out there. But that is the fun in a discussion like this. Then again, if you had told me four years ago that USC, UCLA, UW, UO would be in the Big10 and there would be no more Pac12, I would have thought you were crazy.
You and EVERYONE else.
The ACC is not taken ether school The big 12 dose not want them
While this may be true, it’s their last hope to remain in a P conference and that is still their goal.
Update: College football playoff contract is signed through 2031. The Pac 12 did not sign it. So even if they did rebuild the conference they dont have playoff access.
Why would any MW or AAC school join a conference with no playoff access?
There is a "look in" clause if realignment happens but not if a whole new conference is formed. Big ten and SEC will not allow additional revenue going to a new conference.
Also, G5 schools get $1.8 million in the CFP. Oregon State and Washington State are getting just $360,000. MW will have a new tv deal negotiated next year. Pac 2 still has no tv deal.
I cant see any scenario where the Pac 2 rebuilds.
All excellent points now that we know what the CFP looks like since it has been finalized.
Disregard anything Cansano says. He has NO CREDIBILITY.
I think what this tells you (knowing what contacts Canzano is able to maintain) is that Oregon State is exploring all options.
I’m going to explore all options, too. That doesn’t mean I’ll achieve them. Same with Oregon State.
You two are just blabbering with no specifics. I think OSU and WSU could join with the two Idaho schools and Utah state, maybe U. of Montana to make a new conference. There is a precedent. Idaho State and U of Idaho used to be in the Pac 10 years ago. Forget the East Coast. Too far away, not interesting to the fans. The Pac 12 was great and it's a shame how it fell apart due to money. It's always money.
Reporting on specifics of a report is difficult when that report doesn’t include them.
There's only one FBS Idaho school.
Don't you mean the PAC2?
While that is the reality of the situation and we have been saying Pac-2, the conference is still formally the PAC-12 and we decided to try and continue to use the correct name of the conference. For now.
Good grief. Get into it. Takes you about 2:30 to start getting into stuff that is remotely worthwhile but not that substantive and then 4:40 before your host speaks. Talk about rambling incoherently about nothing. I had to stop watching. I know you like the sound of your own voice, but this was pretty bad. Found this video from a Twitter profile I follow. Thumbs Down.
Thanks for watching and commenting!