EV sales jumped in December to 33% of total new car sales. Here's why I think there's trouble ahead
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- Опубликовано: 16 окт 2024
- Electric car sales in the UK jumped in December 2022 to 33% of the total car sales. In this video I explain why this happened and why I think this rate of increase is unsustainable.
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We need more videos like this, super useful and backed up by real data and examples. Keep going Harry's garage, I hope more social media producers can project the same honesty and solid advice. Maybe more people will start to wake up to the reality of this situation.
I've no particular problem with electric cars (there are clearly pros and cons, environmentally), but I do have a problem with the way they're being introduced in the UK: less wealthy people are being shafted. Not only are they going to have to pay more for their vehicles, but those with less money are less likely to have driveways where you can charge your car. So, they pay more for charging, plus they have to spend an hour or more a week charging their car. Do you have that free time?
Forcing us into electric cars is only reasonable if the government invests so that there are chargers on the street outside flats so that these people can charge their car overnight too. But hey, that's capitalism: the wealthy will be fine and that's all that matters. Regular people can just lose even more of their time - as if we don’t spend enough time working.
Plus, if you buy a new car every - let's say - 50,000 miles, you're not being environmentally friendly, no matter how it is powered. The biggest problem - as with all consumption - is buying new things.
I know it's an alien concept to many - because we’re incessantly told that this is not the case - but the government actually exists to serve us, not to tell us what to do.
@@julianevans9548
Totally agree with that.
@@julianevans9548 very well said. Why don’t the car makers work on kits to convert cars we have now before forcing us to purchase new ones, I don’t particularly like the “life span” of the battery either might be fine where I am in a stable environment but what about cold places? Extreme heat? My last car I bought new in 2007 and traded it on a family car in 2021 and it had done 220,000kms and I only had to put a radiator and front struts in it other then serving. I particularly like how they’re forcing us into it but not one of the governments is standing up and asking any questions about how are the materials being obtained. EVs are becoming as you said a wealthy persons deal.
No one's forcing me. If you feel pressured then I'm sorry but more fool you. A car is a big investment for anyone. I've never ever bought a "new to me" car without doing my homework and being what I would call an intelligent customer. Why anyone would not take a keen interest beforehand beats me. 🤔No car salesman sells me a car he thinks I should buy. In fact I've pulled salesmen up on factually incorrect information in the past.
I couldn't agree more with Harry on this. There should be more videos like this educating the population. As for the diesel BMW 3 series; 320d all day long for me. Keep it simple, keep the weight down and resist the 4wd option, less unsprung weight on the front axle and you don't really need it anyway.
@@mikeroz6549 with the ulez changes and widening of where it applies, that is forcing me to change my particularly fine (but old) diesel to avoid incurring fines, so I am being forced to change (perhaps not to electric but it doesn’t make you think if I have to make a change then shall I make the jump to electric now given the direction of travel and to avoid having to change my “new” diesel car again should the ulez requirements change )
I absolutely adore your road trip videos - but this is one of the best videos you’ve done and you hit the nail on the head in so many areas. Bravo
Watching a Harrys Garage video is like spending an evening with Grandad- absolute comfort. 😊 But he’s not racist, doesn’t read the Daily Mail and knows what he’s talking about.
Couldn’t agree more. Drive less. Buying or leasing new cars every 3 years is horrendous for the environment when you look at the CO2 output of manufacturing a new vehicle.
Agreed. I'll keep my classics and a late diesel Range Range. EVs need to move on a generation or two. We should be allowed freedom of choice anyway. When EVs are better. People will buy them. I hate the whole big state rules, typical of the EU. Got knows why we're still following them.
Could you please provide me with some information on why this would be factually right.
Depending on the source a car will generate between 10-15 percent of the life time CO2 being built. The rest will be during operation. That means only a small reduction in fuel consumption will offset the production emissions.
Furthermore, any new car added to a system will end up replacing a old car in the bottom of the car hierarchy. So when someone buys a new 95 gram CO2 car a 280 gram car will most likely end up at the scrapyard.
@@arvidjohansson3120 Google the report Volvo released comparing electric and ICE cars. The electric car doesn’t become green till after 70,000 miles compared to petrol.
Its combined with greedy EU politicians + overlay exaggerated climate change + trying to hide EV dirty impact on environment.
EV definitely has way more CO2 than hybrid. EV are like electronics you have to replace battery or buy new car every 3-5 years because lithium battery can deteriorate much quicker than combustion engines. And EV manufacturing process is way more polluting
why, so they all get crushed after 3 years or filter through the used market removing ICE cars from the road eventually?
Totally agree with your point regarding insulation of new build homes, much cheaper to do it at the time of build rather than retrofitted later. Same goes for solar and storage batteries.
Isn't that nice.
Suggest you read the 2022 edition of building regulations part L
New build homes are well insulated - but carbon reduction is urgent, and the vast majority of the homes that will exist in 2050 already exist today, so new build is only a small part of the problem. And if you adopt Scandinavian insulation levels in the UK you end up with overheating in summer, which is counter productive because people then start buying air-conditioners...
@@stuartbrown9439 why would you overheat if you keep the heat out? Insulation works both ways.
@@jerehada Took the words out of my head! Doors and windows open with air circulation in the evening, doors and windows closed during the hottest hours of the day, rinse repeat. If the night become too hot, then cool off with A/C. It's a big sadness I have that if only homes where just a bit more thought out in positioning and design perhaps we'd all get on with far less?
Great video. A lot of sense spoken by Harry.
Our politicians are letting us down so badly by pursuing headlines, yet without putting any thought to the real impact of what they are going and the changes they are forcing on us.
The voice of reason! Thank you Harry!! A question.....those December sales......are they really sales, or are they registrations? If they are sales, how are manufacturers suddenly able to get the public to buy in the last month of the year, but struggle for the other 11? It sounds like it would actually be cheaper for a manufacturer to buy their own cars to get the sales figures up, than pay the massive EU fines!!!
I was wondering the same thing. Who is buying these "December" vehicles?
My guess would be a large discounted fleet sale to certain fleet customers. Look at the number of used low mileage BMW selling outlets there are on every street corner.
@@tckcumming An example: Tesla were offering a few grand off and 6000m of free supercharging on a Y - if you were thinking of buying a good deal
Well said..
@@tckcumming Fleet sales, lease trade ups, and employee lot/test vehicles for dealerships. At least that's how it was 15 years ago at the dealership I worked at. Dealerships still had to make quotas then so they'd get the special allotment prices and just general allotment of special vehicles such as Corvette Z06, Cadillac STS, etc.
Really enjoyed this style of video Harry, I think it compliments your regular content very well, keep them coming
I've had 13 years in the motor industry (94- 07) having worked for Mercedes, Fiat and Toyota (had to work on residual values for the first ever Prius...which was 'interesting'!) ; am familiar with the regulatory (and volume) pressures on manufacturers and the SMMT stats - and this video is spot on, Harry. The only thing not mentioned is synthetic fuels which we know are way too expensive at the moment, but if you have any information about further developments (as well carrying on updates about solid state batteries) that would be interesting too. After a recent tour of Gaydon, Aston Martin claim to be the most efficient auto maker on the planet - because of how long their cars have lasted since Aston Martin existed with I think only 5% having gone to the scrap yard - which backs up your point about the BMW M3 or similar. Longevity surely needs to be part of the solution.
If synthetic fuels can be part of the solution - then everyone can hold on to their cars for longer - and surely - that is part of the answer?
The challenge is we have psychologically got 'used' to upgrading - due partly to built in obsolescence in eg white goods and the constant marketing barrage to upgrade your phone; iPad; laptop; telly etc. Gone are our parents' days where they used to darn socks to keep them lasting longer. It has (we have) become a 'throwaway' society, and then we look behind us and wonder why we have such issues to resolve.
Congrats on the measures you have taken, and are taking, regarding sustainability. The calm, balanced, mixture of sensible solutions approach seems way more sensible than the somewhat polarised; binary 'you must buy electric' approach, which encourages people to go into one of two (pro or anti EV) camps, rather than realising that a blend is most likely best.
Ironic about lithium prices, but we'll leave that there.
Thank you for an interesting piece based on facts. Next thing - speak to your MP, Harry, and get this information up there and out there! ;)
Harry had a video about synthetic fuels he uses it for his older cars
Thank you for your interesting comment, I appreciate you taking the time to write it here.
agree - electric owner - experience good and bad ....
The best summary of the challenges we all face with electrification, neatly wrapped up in 15 minutes. Thanks Harry
When something cannot be questioned you know the masses will suffer but NOT the elites. Welcome to the 2020's
In a nutshell please please Stop buying expensive electric ⚡️ car made with dirty energy instead just keep your current car 🚙 on the road with correct and reasonable maintenance in this process you are also supporting your local businesses and global environment.
Worthless pander.
@@ts6070 I think the problem is the current big debate is gas vs electric. The conversation should change to drive what one has. Going out and buying a brand new gas or electric car every few years isn’t good for the environment and not good for one’s wallet.
That was brilliant, Harry! The passion, the info and the felling it was all true is exactly what we need. Well done!
I really hope this series gets a high number of views as it’s super important we get unbiased information on the “push” to electric cars and as someone who currently considering changing my perfectly fine diesel (due to the ulez expansion) this video was extremely informative, thank you. I look forward to watching the next one in this series.
it is a sign of demand for EVs, that gets revealed the moment prices become more affordable. People are not buying EVs just because there is nothing else in the showroom
I'm in the fortunate position of being able to avoid going into any ULEZ zones, and thus not spending within them. One can only hope that enough people in my position do so, and the businesses that lose out campaign for the removal of the ULEZ zones.
ULEZ is one thing but the main benefit of electric cars do not take up any space on road! That is why you don't have to pay the congestion charge! What when we are nearly all electric? Will there be a No Emission Zone? Will the congestion zone be abolished?
@@USUG0 People are buying EVs because they are cheaper to run than paying for fuel and 'I smoked that Lambo, bro!' factor with some EV.
Just do the opposite of what the politicians & MSM say…& u won’t go far wrong 👍
Get a big V8👍😎
Now that's a very smart comment! 👍🏻😎
Lots of Ev's will be on the SH market soon as their owners fell for the 'Safe & Effective' sales pitch! 😕
Cobalt and lithium costs are rising for sure. I've got a 10 year old DS3 and don't do much mileage currently. It's still fine, no rust and the THP155 still has a nice buzz. Am I being more environmentally friendly by keeping my old car for longer? I can't consider an EV, because I don't want to spend £25K+ for a crap EV, let alone £40k+ for a semi-decent one.
By far the most EF thing to do is not to buy a new car.
No but you can buy a top hybrid which will still be on the streets for a long time.
@@giuistefanjr72 doesn't have to be even new ~2-3year and if it's a taxi/uber/lyft (battery continuosly "regened") even 5+
The most environmentally friendly thing, after not driving at all, is to stick it out with the car you have (as long as it has reasonable fuel economy) or buy a used hybrid if your existing car doesn't do what you need it to.
Volvo calculated that full electric is only better for the environment after the vehicle has 150k miles
Brilliant and so glad you have done this, other media sources need to start addressing this rather than putting their heads in the sand!. Thank you for taking the time and research to do this Harry.
Harry, you got that spot on!👏
This is probably the most honest review of the situation we’re in with EVs at this moment in time in the UK.
We’re being ‘persuaded’ to buy EVs when the infrastructure just isn’t there to cope with it in the UK.
(Ill be sticking with hybrid and diesels for the time being.)
'Forced'?? You could buy a diesel tomorrow and run it for years to come you drama queen
@@Matty_D my mate went to the dealer to buy a diesel, they held a gun to his head and forced him to buy an EV
@@mbal4052 My brothers cousin tried buying a 4 cylinder gas saver and was locked in a room with Miley Cyrus turned up to 11. Forced him to sign for the EV and the extended warranty.
@@Matty_D and how much would it cost to drive into londons ulez … and do you really think there will not be more punitive measures against ice vehicles around the world.
@@Fireballsocal My uncle's friend's cousin's wife went to buy a 1L 3cyl, she was forced to watch TikTok videos until she signed for an EV.
Poor lady didn't even last a minute.
Great video and I feel your rant. I've found my head in my hands on this very topic many times. That said, ANOTHER aspect of this issue is the labor force used to mine the materials for all these batteries. A very dark business that the media and our governments are not speaking of. Thanks for sharing this topic. Best -
Congolese Cobalt mining is a shameful reality, but it's worth pointing out 2 points:
-Not all EV batteries use Cobalt (standard range Tesla model 3 and Y have none and they are roughly 1/2 of total Tesla production).
-The quantity of cobalt used in a 500kg luxury EV battery pack is less than 25 kg and it is 100% recyclable at end of life.
@@richhr89 your recyclability numbers are incorrect, not to mention that we are at the very front end of the EV battery lifecycle.
Once these cells are no longer fit for automotive use they don't go into the junkyard. They move into applications where their power density are far less critical like grid tied storage.
We shouldn't even be considering activity recycling these cells today when they've got another 10 or 15 year life ahead of them.
Every part of capitalism is a dark business
Edward, if you do a bit of research, you'd quickly discover that the largest users of mined minerals on the planet are the oil industry......
@@otm646 Of which good examples might be the huge sports stadium in Utrecht in Holland, powered by 200 old Nissan Leaf batteries, charged via solar. Or the wind farm in Wales, which uses a considerable number of older BMW i3 batteries for energy storage..... As you rightly state, not all older EV batteries will need to be recycled. They may no longer be capable of use in a vehicle, but are more than adequate for energy storage.....
I love driving and maintaining older cars from the 80's and 90's for daily use. The trick is to buy the best example you can find, and maintain it. Once sorted - very economical to run...and you've got something a bit special that brings a smile to your and others faces.
Except for the occasions when you'll drive into a Clean Air Charging zone......then you may not feel like smiling.
This is true. A classic car, or a car that is a throwback still doing its thing, will always bring a smile to our faces. Keep up the good work (literally).
Completely agree. It would be amazing if you got a tax write-off for keeping a car longer at the end of finance or motor plan versus buying a new one😂
Don't worry, you vill own nuzing and you vill be happy
@@WiseGuy02 you will own a zonda 760 and you will be happy
Dream on 😂
Very informative, Harry. Thank you. This kind of proper look behind what really drives the sales numbers just doesn't get reported in the mainstream media!
Great format. We need more big picture holistic discussions like this. Right or wrong, debating the many and varied interrelated issues will help us get to the desired state faster and more effectively. Please keep up the great work.
I really appreciate these type of videos as much as the road trips, restorations and tests. More please Harry. Thanks.
Thanks Harry, fascinating video. It makes me realise just how shambolic and rushed the whole switch to electric has been so far. It really frustrates me. Short sighted governments too afraid to make real changes for the fear of losing votes 🥺
I'm an huge EV advocate (I own a TM3 P) and you're absolutely right about the efficiency. It's almost more important than range. We NEED efficient EVs with sleek aeordynamics, good power electronics (SiC based for better efficiency like Tesla) and very efficient powertrains.
This SUV trend must stop with EVs. We need estates and saloons. These cars NEEDs the smallest frontal area possible.
The BMW iX, Tesla X, Hummer EV or Rivian R1T, these 3 tons EVs are the exact things to avoid.
Agree, bought a used Skoda Superb Diesel 7 years ago with then 30k miles. It's now covered close to 170k miles, is dead cheap in maintenance and running costs, it drives perfectly fine and does all I need from my daily workhorse at an average of 55mpg. I do have solar panels on the roof, so i could easily provide the electricity for an EV, I just don't see any reason to get rid of a perfectly fine car.
And will stink and pollute everyone but why would you care if you get 55mog what a joke
Solar panels on a roof don't "easily provide the electricity for an EV." Where do you get that idea?
WELL SAID
@@johnsmith1474 might be a misunderstanding, but I meant that I have solar panels on the roof of my house. I monitor how much they produce each day and how much I'm actually using. Right now, I'm selling the excess, but it would be easily sufficient to charge and run an EV for my daily use.
@@eiwiss "I do have solar panels on the roof, so i could easily provide the electricity for an EV"
How? Do you have solar batteries? Or work on night shifts?
We need to face the reality that taxpayers, including low income earners, have effectively been forced to subsidise luxury EVs. All under the guise of ideological fanaticism.
It's actually quite insidious and disgusting when you stop to think about it.
Absolutely brilliant Harry (as always!). Your videos are always an enjoyable and informative watch - honest opinions that everyone can understand and appreciate. Keep up the great work - we could do with you running the country at the moment!
Love these more industry news related videos. So interesting to get info from someone who really understands the industry and has well thought out and researched information to share. Absolutely fantastic
Hi Harry. A very good video - bravely going against the trend. I’ve long felt that buying a nice car and running it for 150 / 200k miles was by far not only the most economical way to enjoy motoring but also the most environmentally friendly because it limited the number of new cars that needed to be built for me. I still feel it is the way to go - I’m in a BMW 340i which I average 43mpg easily only the motorway and I’ll run to at least 200k miles. I might look at an electric car when I replace this one - but I’d really like to know what the “all in” environmental cost of manufacturing, running and disposing of cars with different fuel sources is before I lazily follow the trend towards electric cars. As I said, a good video discussing an important topic - look forward to more - suitably interspersed with road tests and restoration projects. Take care.
It's a great question and in the past 6 months or so, we've started to have a bit more data to work it out. Polestar have been especially good at producing transparent reports into the CO2e emissions related to battery development.
Very roughly (figures rounded for ease) and obviously will vary on the car, but using the Volvo / Polestar report (which tracks with other similar studies)
A new ICE car XC40 is 16 tonnes of CO2e to produce
A new BEV will take about 20 tonnes of CO2e to produce, with the majority of that 4 tonnes being the battery.
Taking the 2022 UK Greenhouse gas conversion figures, their Well to Tank emissions factors are as follows per mile for a medium car (e.g. BMW 3 series)
Diesel - 0.26kg per mile
Petrol - 0.32kg per mile
BEV - 0.08kg per mile
Worth pointing out that well to tank is a useful metric because it takes into account emissions from the extraction of oil through to filling up your car, in the same way the EV figure takes into account emissions from gas usage in production.
Therefore, over 100,000 miles:
Diesel - 26 tonnes
Petrol - 32 tonnes
BEV - 7 tonnes
(Battery Electric has the potential to be lower if charged from domestic solar, figures are for grid charging)
Therefore over 100,000 miles, a new BEV vehicle will have a footprint of 7 + 20 = 27 tonnes, which puts it on equal or better footing than an *existing* petrol or diesel car.
A new petrol car will have a footprint over 100,000 miles of 32+16 = 48 tonnes, so nearly double that of a new EV.
My figures here are a bit back of the envelope and simplified a bit, but the lifecycle assessment polestar did is goes into far better detail comparing their own manufacturing costs, and they do model out different scenarios based on electrical grid mix too: www.polestar.com/dato-assets/11286/1600176185-20200915polestarlcafinala.pdf
Data for conversion factors of vehicle emissions are here: www.gov.uk/government/collections/government-conversion-factors-for-company-reporting
Also worth noting that once a battery is finished in a vehicle, it'll have a second life in a battery storage system, and then a third life potentially before it's even recycled, so they tend to last for decades. Lots of interesting shortages in the second hand battery market because the ~2015 onwards batteries are lasting longer than expected.
@@DarkLordButterfly great post mr butterfly (interesting name) can you post a link for where the batteries will get used a second and third time? Isn’t that all conjecture really 🤷♂️ and what percentage of old car batteries actually get repurposed? In a ideal world 100% obviously, I’m just wondering what reality will be?
We're seeing mostly big grid level modules atm because the batteries coming through are still the older and lower quality ones from pre 2013. The 2015 onwards ones where cooling became more commonplace are lasting longer than expected, and they're the ones more suited for home storage due to higher density packs I believe
All valid points and I totally agree that buying used is the best way to protect the environment. Just want to add: the dirtiness of EV depends on the power mix of that area, but also heavily, heavily depends on when do you charge the car. In the VW ID. series there is a mode called "charge to departure time". I set it to 6am. So the car usually starts charging after 2am which is when wind energy is contributing heavily into the grid and no enough people are using them. UK has an abundance of off-shore wind farms and a lot more planned. Charge you car after midnight and you can dramatically reduce the dirtiness.
I live outside Charlotte North Carolina. A few weeks back we had a run of very very cold weather (at or below 0 degrees F). The grid required rolling blackouts to keep from losing electricity to a wider extent. How on earth does the government think the grid could handle a significant percentage of the population having electric vehicles. The infrastructure is nowhere near ready to handle even 5% of the population having electric vehicles.
Very insightful, Harry, thank you.
My daily driver is 30 years old this year and still going very strong with over 280,000 miles on the clock and I will be keeping it for a few more years.
Fuel cars are not profiting for companies now anymore as they would last longer. Buying expensive electric and replacing them every few years is more profitable. It's not all about CC.
Honda or Toyota?
@@ln5747 Toyota. 🚙
@@MrMayabeach false, I'm afraid. Most manufacturers struggle to build EVs profitably. Only Tesla make good profit margins on them.
Also, longevity is looking to be better on modern EVs than modern ICE vehicles.
@@richhr89 really, please tell us how long those batteries last. The range of evs is laughable with new batteries, uselessly pathetic after 10, 20% degradation
Well done for speaking out Harry. Appreciate it.
Informative video Harry, thank you. I am moving to this way of thinking as I didn't change my three year old M4 at the end of last year which is the first time I haven't updated in nearly 20 years. As you say the best thing for the environment is to use the cars we have, rather than swapping regularly. On the tax advantages they are huge, but the revenue they will lose out on (fuel, RFL, VAT on servicing etc) will surely mean parity will return sooner than forecast.
Thank you Harry for, yet again, providing an educated voice of reason into this, it is balanced and informative.
Great vid Harry and really interesting points. I especially like the industry and legislation information used to back up your thoughts and arguments.
1. The amount of horrific cobalt mines with children hand mining is sickening to support this new electric craze.
2. The earth warms up and cools down it’s normal and has seen fluctuations over the last 100,000 years. We are but a spec in history.
3. There infrastructure is no where near and a much greater monopoly can be used in electric grid facilities.
Thanks for reading
1: This is a myth. Lithium is used in many things, not just EV's. e.g. the phone, laptop, and any other battery powered device you've been using since 30+ years. Also the EV sector is actively moving away from using cobalt in batteries.e.g. The Tesla SR+ now using LFP batteries which are Cobalt free.
2: Yep we get it. What about removing tail pipe pollution away from the streets !
3: Yes again correct. The EV charging infrastructure is probably similar to what re-fueling stations looked like in the early 1900's - few and far between. Change takes time !
Well said Harry. It would be interesting to see how long people kept their cars in the 80’s or 90’s compared to now.
In the 80s, any old car in the UK was full of rust. It got better throughout the 90s, so you now still see lots of cars from the early 2000s on the road.
Excellent and fully agree with you. Hopefully you can get the video played in Parliament to make them take notice.
If everyone moves to EV, the good news for us petrol heads is that there won’t be many cars on the road, and especially motorways - the infrastructure isn’t in place to charge them all, nobody will do long journeys!!!
Why do long journeys in a car?
Wont be much traffic on the twisty country roads for us Bikers as well. The electric cars will stay in the towns, where the rapid chargers are
There will always be vehicles on the road, it’s just which vehicles people use are the problem… Harry, do you use a fuel stabilizer in your hybrids fuel? I don’t know how often you gas it up, but I heard of people in the US having problems with gas going bad
Wrong.
@@marvintpandroid2213 do you live in Oxford 😂…sorry couldn’t resist that.
I will keep my internal combustion engine car until the police come to take it because it's illegal to drive it anywhere. It's ridiculous to enforce something like this. If electric cars were the best option, the cosumers would move to them without the need for law enforcement.
Thank you SO MUCH! My only problem was that I could not put a “double thumbs up”!Politicians need to wake up.
I noticed that in the last 2-3 weeks a lot of car manufacturers have come out of the woodwork to say that 100% EV won’t work (it only took Toyota to say it first).
Thank you so much Harry. Really enjoy these discussions. Sorry we can't get diesel cars in the US anymore. Would've been interesting to learn about them first hand and experience them. Btw, you had a picture of a Lucid in the video. Have you tried them out? What are your thoughts?
There are several reasons that passenger vehicles aren’t available in the USA as diesel. A lot of it has to do with emissions standards in the US - which are much more stringent than in Europe/UK. The US has clamped down on types of diesel that are less clean and that’s one reason that the price of diesel is so much higher at the pump than petroleum (regular gasoline). In addition, this higher cost has mean that car manufacturers are far less likely to sell diesel passenger cars over other fuel passenger cars.
A really interesting and thought-provoking video Harry. I’m not quite there on electric cars due to my fairly extensive business travel, but would consider one for runabout use if I didn’t already have a small, highly efficient supermini for that. Looking forward to more words of wisdom from the next episode in this series.
Thank goodness,someone with real authority has spoken up about this ridiculous situation.
Long journeys=Diesel/Petrol
Short journeys=Non I/C power.
Respect to you Harry's Garage.
Excellent rant Harry- 100% with what you are saying….It must be better for the planet to keep hold of cars longer rather than ‘churning’ them…..excellent content as ever, please keep it coming!
I appreciate something different this time even though i always love your traditional car reviews. Keep em coming Harry!
Great video as always. I really enjoy your articulate, intelligent and thoughtful videos. Almost as much as the mad road tests and trips!
I think some of the "pressure" to replace your car has to do with when the warranty runs out...especially as cars become more and more complex and expensive......nobody wants to be stuck with the repairs
SavageGeese' S class and EQS videos really drive this point. You'd have to be bonkers to buy one of those after warranty expires due to the insane amount of electronics. They're practically disposable
@@officialchill1706 - Like the lower middle class worker.
Much cheaper to extend the warranty with the manufacturer than go and buy a new car. It cost me about £850 for the M5 for a year which is way less than the depreciation on a new one.
Modern Money Pits yep
@@officialchill1706 That has always been the case though with S classes. It's nothing new. Do you think running costs of the fabled W140 S class are cheap?
So happy to hear you say this Harry, I feel like I’ve been screaming at the wind all this time about how we can just keep churning out brand new electric cars (of the wrong type) and keep buying and selling them in the same way. We’re going to replace one climate catastrophe with another one. I’ll keep driving my 25 year old 996 until bio fuels come along. Great video!
i hope you meant fuels 😂
@@ChelsBurgett 😂 bloody autoincorrect!! 😂😂 (edited now)
Forget bio fuels. There will never be enough to go on general sale. Porsche will keep most of it for themselves, to keep their Motorsport activities viable.
Great video Harry. I owned an EV for five months in Canada. I can tell you the tech is not ready for our cold winter weather.
(1) The surge or spike in December could likely relate to registrations i.e. pre-registrations just to manipulate data, those cars will then need to be sold to customers as demo or nearly new.
Dealers are often doing pre-reg when they need to massage data to hit targets.
Nailed it again Harry, we could all see the flaws in rushing EV's to market with the charging network still lagging way behind. We are sticking with our petrol 1.4 Audi A1 bopping about returning 48 mpg! Very interesting video again 👍
I always loved the A2, personally🙂
Just worth considering, if you feel like using this:
48mpg of petrol means using 56.44kwh of fossil energy to drive 100km. My 492bhp Tesla model 3 has averaged 18.2 kWh per 100km of grid electricity (I am not a particularly economical driver🙄)
Your A1 uses over 3 times the energy of my 1.8 tonne, sub 4s to 60mph saloon.
Both figures are at the car so there is the petrol extraction, refinement and transport to add (equivalent to around 20% more on top) and small charging and distribution losses for the battery car. All calculable and even with the huge production footprint of any car (40% more again for the EV) there is really no comparison, even in the UK.
Carbon emissions per kWh and per litre of fuel are easily available - that of car production more difficult to find, but also available if you want to make the calculation for yourself.
Sadly Harry hasn't done his sums on lifetime carbon emissions (I have, and got rid of my 270,000 mile Volvo as soon as I could afterwards). He does make great points about on street charging and rapid charger infrastructure for travelling in the UK, though.
@@abcxyz2927 all true, but 90% + of miles driven in EVs is slow charged over night on off peak electricity....
@@abcxyz2927 I agree that home or on street charging availability is critical. Annoyingly, this doesn't require upgrading the grid, but it does need plug availability.
Around town? Even just charging slowly at home I have a real 300 mile range. We've covered 65,000 miles with our 2 EVs over less than 3 years mostly charging from a single 32Amp plug. Around 5,000 miles of that from rapid chargers on holiday road trips.
We're not a low mileage family...
@@abcxyz2927 there's something strange about RUclips comments
@@abcxyz2927 You do realise that the cost of public charging can be reduced by subscribing to the charge network you anticipate using. Depending on the network, Subscribing can bring discounts of up to 50%. Not many people - journalists in particular - seem to know that........ Of course non-subscribers will pay full price.....
Agree completely. The 2-3 year lease deals have a negative impact not just on green credentials but they allow consumers to drive cars that they can’t really afford, which in the current climate might put a strain on them. I hope these vids are beemed into the House of Commons.
Interesting update thanks Harry. We've had a Renault Zoe for a couple of years which on a run does ~3.75mi/kW in the winter and ~4.25mi/kW in the summer, more if you sit at 60mph on the motorway. It's charged at home and is a great run around and commuter car (60miles each way twice a week). There's a year left on the lease, and with the cost of cars, interest rates and electricity prices all so much higher than when we got it I suspect that it won't stack up to replace it with another EV.
It's funny because I see a Zoë parked nearby that has been there for years and is daily driven, while a house close to it bought a Mercedes EQS and also installed a wall charger for it. It was gone after less than a year and got replaced by a regular petrol car. It doesn't surprise me that the small Renault is a better car for its purpose!
I’m eight years and 80,000 miles into my BMW 320d, and plan to at least double those numbers before I consider a replacement. It’s also finance-free, and I have little desire to be burdened with another monthly PCP anytime soon. So - a vote for sunk build costs and emissions from me; we really need to extend our national fleet life first and foremost, as you suggest.
The reality is even if you part exchanged your car for a new EV the old one wouldn't end up on the scrap heap. Someone else will take it on and that will continue until it is no longer financially viable. Whether a car has one owner or two over its lifetime makes little difference to its environmental impact.
It's still better for you financially though as the depreciation on an eight year old car is much smaller than a new one.
@@tonyedgecombe6631 Yes indeed. Agree with all of those points. Not sure my car with count for much on a trade-in, mind. Another reason to keep it.
I think it is a huge issue that none of the Governments, policy groups or companies are engaging in a conversation with the public on these topics. It is more like a 'fait accompli'.
Ideally, the answers (and data) to all these questions should already be in the public domain.
Interested in your rant about all new industrial buildings having solar panels, as a planning requirement. I live next door to one of the largest distribution parks in Europe, not one building has a single solar panel on the roof. Ironically, 100’s of acres of good agricultural land, next door, has been taken out of production to build a solar farm to power the distribution park - MADNESS!
it is madness, and its insane government policy thats causing it
Absolutely bonkers! Isn't it?
I think there's two common reasons:
1. Land based solar is super cheap to install. You don't need as much equipment, can mount it easily and more importantly, remove it quickly too if you need to
2. Warehouses are built cheaply. Warehouses are large tin cans without much structural strength on the roof. Therefore, adding panels to them would mean a lot of reinforcement and extra cost that you just don't need to do with a field.
It's one of those problems that will only really change with legislation because no landlord is going to voluntarily spend more cash to build an over-engineered warehouse.
I think the best middle ground are solar car ports, which can be easily constructed above car parks so a bit of a happy medium. Protects the cars during summer, easy to install free standing but also still reduces the energy bills of the site owner. Bentley is a great example of just how much power these can produce.
Another aspect of increasing the average weight of vehicles that I haven’t heard discussed much here in the states (perhaps likewise elsewhere) is the additional damage to roads this will cause.
Damage to roadways from weight increases to the sixth power. That means that most vehicles do essentially no damage. It's extremely heavy trucks that do nearly all of the damage. A 4,500lb EV6 in not going to have a significantly greater impact on road wear compared to a 3,500lb ICE vehicle.
Agreed, and in the UK "road tax" is supposed to pay for the upkeep of the roads, so how is an overweight EV going to do zero damage to the roads?
@@bearclaw5115A 6th power function has a very severe “knee”. If the relationship between vehicle weight and road damage is truly a 6th power function, the position of that “knee” as determined by other factors (road construction, for instance) would have to be considered before declaring this a non-issue.
This shouldn't be much of an issue, since roads are designed for trucks - which are more or less a order of magnitude heavier. Even a heavy SUV will be well below the design load.
@@stevemawer848 fake news. Local councils pay for repair of roads, and no it's not from road tax monies.
Excellent video Harry - thank you for sharing your carefully considered experiences with EVs and your forecast for what might transpire between now and 2030. The whole issue of EV sales, EV infrastructure, etc. is confusing and those of us who buy our own vehicles lack the confidence to make a huge investment into what could end up as the automotive industry's version of Betamax. You have left me in a lot more confident mood to continue to drive my fully paid for, reliable and very comfortable eight year old diesel Mercedes rather than re-enter the car buying market unnecessarily over the next few years.
Harry nailed it
As well as " the system" trying to get us to buy a new electric car every 3 years we have phone manufacturers trying to get us to buy a new phone every year.
Which a bit more lithium.
I'd like to see Harry on Hydrogen. Even the name sounds funky !
I too drive a diesel Mercedes. I’ll be keeping it for a while yet!
This video has helped me too, to decide to continue with the economical mercedes. We have to swap our 2020 model in for a SUV as mobility for one of us prevents getting into a low estate vehicle, but this video, and indeed your comment, assures us we should just get a used Mercedes that is higher off the ground, and carry on as happily as ever.
We were very tempted by the electric SUVs at Brooklands, but maybe we will wait for solid state batteries or whatever emerges. We are getting a big betamax vibe from the industry as a whole. We are excited to see what Mercedes will be able to deliver in the coming years, they are launching hybrid, wall chargeable, petrol cars at the moment. Or perhaps they are launching plans, as you can't get one, you can only order it.
Absolutely hit the nail on the head on finance agreements with balloon’s forcing the churn and a new habbit of buying cars more often than is actually needed.
Great summary as always from Harry - spot on.
I’m lucky enough to have an electric Mini. I rarely do more than 30miles in any day, I can charge at home with solar panels.
It’s one of the smallest EVs with the smallest batteries - so smallest environmental impact.
It’s got as much torque as it can handle (a characterful front-wheel torque steer/squiggling to be had with a heavy right foot if desired) it has actual buttons for controls, and doesn’t have lane departure warning. I’ve averaged 4.3miles/kWh this winter - even with cabin pre-heating - and I reckon I’ve done over 1,000 miles on pure Cumbrian sunshine…
If EV works for you it works great.
Couldn’t agree more. We’ve had a Skoda Enyaq for 6 months, brilliant for local drives under 50 miles but trip from Kent to North Wales was super stressful and we needed 3 stops which meant the journey took a whole day. Also, service station chargers aren’t much different to petrol cost plus you spend an extra £20-£30 on drinks and food for the family whilst you wait. I don’t regret the purchase but it does feel like we were a bit early. One more thing - the ride is super smooth on decent roads but it’s so heavy that it’s pretty rough on our rural potholed lanes, perhaps worth trying a few if anyone does a test drive.
Enjoyed this style of video, bringing facts into the mix. Looking forward to more like this.
I wondered if you could get chance to go and see the people at Warwick university. They were instrumental in the battery make up we have in the cars now.
What they have in the pipe line and testing of future idea's, could make for an interesting video.
Great video and a hot topic it's usually not been properly discussed, so thank you for that! Apart from the drivetrain energy vector or technology, there is another sustainability-related trend I found really interesting (especially as an owner two pretty old cars which perfectly do their function and also make me smile when I drive them): remanufacturing/renewing used cars to keep them up to date, like Renault is doing with their Circular Economy goals; I would love a video of you talking about this. Personally I believe it could persuade car manufacturers to built better quality vehicles (for example if they can keep leasing them to customers beyond the usual 3/4 years) without the pressure to sell more cars to stay afloat (because they would get a revenue stream from the cars for longer), which should mean cutting down emissions and saving precious ressources
Wow. You nailed 👏 those issues. Many I share but not been able to pinpoint the detail and overview. Everyone needs to hear these concerns...Govts for too long have just been 'singing the polemic electric'.
Thank you Harry. Very informative. The price of electric cars is completely prohibitive for me at the moment. I have a C class which is £20 to tax, surely that has to be the better option.
During a recent cold snap in the US, the charging Network did not work, leaving people stranded in their cars to die in the freezing cold. The Chargers simply would not charge in the cold.
Surprised by this as stuck petrol vehicles are a real hazard in snow fall, people die all the time from carbon monoxide poisoning. A stuck EV can run the cabin heater for hours, but if you just go yolo it to a charger with 0% battery left and then get stuck there well you’re not making very sensible life choices.
@@edc1569 I'd like to see the number of people who "die all the time from carbon monoxide poisoning".
Good honest, well thought out and well researched content; it's why I love Harry's videos.
I'd love to hear your take on Toyota's hydrogen engine.
97% of hydrogen in this country is from fossil fuel, and hydrogen is as inefficient as petrol.
AKA the reason why Toyota's CEO is very critical of EVs
I'll believe it when it's in a production car, but I hope it succeeds.
Toyota =Kodak
Toyota bankrupt before 2030
Well Harry you’ve made me feel better about going HP with my finance agreement over PCP. I love my car, so I’ll be glad to own it outright when the deal lapses and it will probably have about 25,000 miles on it max.
Also let's not forget that companies such as Porsche and Koenigsegg are working on synthetic fuels/bio-fuels which might be a good solution for sports cars in the future. Perhaps a "one size fits all" solution is not necessarily an answer that will practically work out in the long run, perhaps a range of different technologies depending on vehicle type will work better. Plus with EVs, there is CO2 emmiiosns during the battery production and resource mining.
And you don't suppose the filthy, wasteful oil industry has any CO2 emissions at all then? And best not even mention the odd huge oil tanker spillage.... You do know the oil industry are the largest users of mined minerals on the planet? They've mined cobalt for decades.....
@@Brian-om2hh I didn't;t say they didn't. I just said it's good companies like Porsche are working on other solutions too, at least for sports cars which are sold in far lower numbers, it's nice to have options rather than everything being electric and silent.
People with common sense will always struggle to understand government decisions.
Exactly. Unfortunately for us, the vast majority of the population have an IQ under 80, and subcontract their critical thinking to the WEF and the BBC.
Politicians make poor decisions because they know nothing about their brief. For example the current Health Secretary trained as a solicitor. The Shadow Health Secretary has a degree in History.
Common sense isn't always as sensible as it seems though. If we followed "common sense" we'd have made no scientific progress throughout history and we'd still be living in mud huts. But government decisions do certainly often lack any form of sense at all.
Harry, please keep doing videos on this subject. Very interesting to hear information on this part of the industry.
Excellent video, Harry. Well researched - more of these please. It also asked tough questions, such as the crazy tax benefits of these vehicles.
Electricity is not the future for the car industry.
What type of 'fuel' are you thinking?
Europe switching to EVs will have a minuscule impact on global co2 emissions tho. I feel like this whole change is just happening way too quickly. It’s like they want cars to be even more out of reach for poorer people.
Yep, that's it. They just don't want the small people to own a car. Period.
They forced change towards EV is way too soon. It will be too soon until the range of the EV equals the ICE cars AND the electricity charge takes the same time as a petrol fill up AND the number of charging station equals the number of petrol station.
But all that won't happen soon.
'You'll own nothing and you'll be happy' (unless you work for the WEF, then you'll commute to work in your private jet)
Thanks Harry, very good analysis well articulated......looking forward to your next video.
EV’s are shiny new toys that currently have no mass practical application.
A real eye opener for me, as someone who knows little about EV'S and was considering purchasing one in the next year. Think I'll hang on to my 5 yr old CX5 Diesel for at least another 3 years after watching this.
I’m a little bit of a car nerd waste a few hours each day on RUclips and autotrader watching reviews and keeping an eye on pricing I’m embarrassed to admit 😂
Unless you are getting the tax break on an EV I really don’t think they are worth their current cost, for LTD companies they reduce the cost of the thing by 40-50% due to the tax write off, prices are high to reflect this in my opinion. if you are buying as a private customer you have to pay the ridiculous high price without getting the tax saving.
I think car prices are currently ridiculous generally, I earn fairly well compared to average and could easily afford a new car but instead I have a 11 year old cayman in the garage for fun and bowl about in a 10 year old 114d with 122k miles on the clock as I refuse to spend the sums of money being asked for new and used cars at the moment.
I’ve gotten older and realised the money spent on cars comes from hours of my life spent at work stressed so I’m much more careful now😂
If your current car is ticking over I would keep it serviced every 12 months and just sit back a little bit and watch what happens with EV prices I think they will drop significantly over the next couple of years as tax breaks are wound back and new technology comes out, an EV with a range of 200 miles is going to become nearly worthless in 3 years if they improve ranges to 400-500 or if synthetic fuels become more available. It’s us consumers that take that personal financial hit.
Sorry if that was a bit much information just my 5 cents and I have no crystal ball 🙏
@@stu4181 Nice to have a Cayman in the garage! I'm in Thailand where imported and even locally made cars are taxed heavily. My CX5 cost me the equivalent of 48k Sterling and is still tight as a drum zero faults during ownership and only travelled 76ks. I kept a UK spec 81, 928s with low miles in my garage in Australia for over 10 years with a view to importing it here as the perfect GT for my retirement, but they completely banned any importation of used cars just before I retired. Tesla just launched here last month with base model Y at 50k US plus $1500 extra for any colour other than white, which I think is a bit cheeky. I'll be taking your advice at sitting back for a while and watch how it all unfolds with EV'S here..🙏
@@Scotty70 Very jealous of the warmth you have; it’s currently 9 degrees here and windy and rainy as I walk into the gym 😂
Yes it’s hard for us enthusiasts to not buy cars but certainly I feel at this current point there Is a risk of a sting if we do, especially with global recession looming prices will drop as a result of that in the very least! Great to hear from you ☺️
@@stu4181 Don't be too jealous of the warmth here, right now it's cool season in the North and gets below zero at altitude for a couple of months. Come March it's nothing but oppressive heat and humidity for the next 6 months! 😂
Substantially valid points raised Harry. I have a 7yr old 1.6L turbo diesel with a 60L tank that delivers 1300kms at an average speed of 100kmph country driving and it takes mere minutes to refuel. I've travelled 72k since new and it's greatest expense was 4 new tyres. An electric powered equivalent sized vehicle delivers [allegedly] 400-430kms distance and takes a month of Sundays to recharge x 3 times over the equivalent distance of my diesel car. I have no inclination to buy an electric car at today's inflated vehicle prices with sub-standard distance between recharging, on the basis of saving incomprehensible fleet penalties imposed by governments on car manufacturers. Please continue these consumer informative videos Harry. It's a 👍 from me😎👍🇦🇺
I have an old diesel car and small miles there is no point me going electric plus the cost of electric has gone up so much what the point of electric cars
My thoughts too. No need to change, particularly if you don't live in a big city
My wife has had a pure ev for a couple of years.We do have a 7kwh home installed charger BUT travelling outside its range has continued to be a nightmare.Not enough chargers.Some decide they have a fault and the ones that do work you probably have to wait because someone else has just pipped you to the post.The road chargers are not cheap either .I love the principle but in practice hate the experience.Planning any journey only takes one charger to be out of order and its a recovery job.Happened twice now! Crazy.
I agree, for people who have a home charger an EV probably makes sense. But for those without or who do long journeys more than a few times a year, they don't.
@@Hali88 My report is accurate and true.No matter how long you plan a journey with meeting a charge point at a certain point it basically is like playing russian roulette.Nightmare and frankly just if you can go by train .Mind you they are as reliable as the Royal Mail.Stay at home.?
Thank you Harry. I learned a lot in this video. Im in America, have an EV, sold my 3 series BMW wagon as I go less than 200 miles per week. My wife still has her petrol civic si in a manual. Appreciate your openness and candor on a difficult subject. We will all have to work together and not vilify each other.
My only comment is, keep up the good work Harry! (Even if this type of video doesn’t attract the most views). We need to be hearing this sort of rational discussion about energy use A LOT more often.
It's not Sunday evening already is it? ;-) Enjoyed this (surprise) video. I have a diesel car that comes to the end of its finance agreement in a months time and planning just to keep the car. As you say Harry, people get too caught up in the pressure/expectation to change their car every 3/4 years. The last 3 years everything has changed for me as far as commuting goes and I'm fortunate enough to still get to work from home most days which is also a big factor in my decision as car is still low mileage and I don't use it that often so can't see any benefit switching to electric.
I think you pretty much nailed it. The greenest solution would be to reduce overall passenger vehicle miles and simultaneously incentivise prolonged car ownership and most of all lighter new vehicles.
Love these videos, thoroughly informative and interesting to listen to.
Great summary that voices reason over ideological thinking. One other point to add is the near slavery conditions found in the cobalt mines in the Congo. This applies to every rechargeable battery found in modern devices but it's many times worse in car battery because of its greater capacity, so more cobalt is needed. This horrendous fact is barely talked about in the public sphere but it's something every single buyer should be aware of.
You've just spoken more sense than any politician can understand.
I’d love to hear your view on the proposed “15 minute city” plan for Oxford.
It is an outrage and locals should resist it.
I really despair at these plans and others like them.
No rationale arguments or data to back up the proposals - just ideas paid through our taxes that stifle movement and businesses
I'm far more interested in carbon neutral synthetic fuels as part of the mix. Hopefully there'll be a lot more interest and investment once F1 adopts it.
no such thing
The problem is that the energy retuned is going to be abysmally low. Too many energy conversions. Could be a solution for car enthusiasts that take the oldtimer to a show twice a year, but at an estimated price of 10€/liter, it will never become mainstream.
Or just invest in magic!
Well done for your theses. From an owner of a 17 year old X5 (best car I've ever had) Peter J.
Brilliant video Harry! More like this one please, it’s great to hear your thoughts on the industry and market as well as on specific vehicles.
That was very informative Harry. Learnt some new things, but also confirmed my own views that it’s still too early to buy EV. So who bought the December cars? Or were they manufacturer registrations !
Still too early for YOU to buy an EV of course. Some of us have been driving and enjoy them for over 10 years now! (and with the savings i've bought a ridiculous weekend "toy" dinosaur powered car to play with..... ;;-)
@@maxtorque2277 are you ok?
@@maxtorque2277 well, I just happen to agree with Harry’s assessment. Can’t imagine how efficient a 10 year old electric car must be, but I’m thrilled you’ve been able to afford a toy
@@johndriver6661 let's think about that- electric motor efficiency ? 93%+ (no maintenance or reduction in efficiency) battery efficiency? 89%+ .
Likely to have some capacity loss but efficiency will not reduce.
New petrol/ diesel engine efficiency? 30% max. Will certainly not improve with age...
Thanks Harry.Very informative and helpful on many fronts.Keep up the good work...
I would love to see a Harry's special featuring the "Lightyear One" when it comes to efficiency they are absolute in front of the market... What there's also getting interesting when looking for milage per kWh is electric flying without tire friction one really got better on. Thank your for sharing your content! It's always a pleasure to watch.
What are you on about?
Sadly, the lift required to fly causes huge drag and needs much more energy than tyre rolling resistance. Flying will always be more energy intensive than driving on the ground.
This is by far the most objective and fact based take on EVs and the future I have seen. I hope this video gets a lot of views, especially from those who feel the pressure to go electric as soon as possible. All considerations that Harry touched on are usually omitted by mainstream media, manufacturers and EV enthusiasts that only shine a light on the good aspects, but not on the reality users are going to face out of the showroom.
This is a really good video. I manage a Classic Car Club and we were only talking about this at the weekend. My colleague said about an issue no one is talking about - The "Angels' Share" - If you fill a fuel tank with petrol or diesel and, assuming it doesn't leak, you will still have a full tank when you come back to it 3 months later. If you fully charge a BEV, disconnected it and leave it for 3 months, it won't be a fully charged vehicle, so how much is that costing NOT to run a BEV??
When you plug one in It should be as quick as putting petrol in you should be able to drive to Scotland on a full charge it’s all just madness