K2-18b: did JWST really find evidence of life on this exoplanet?
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2024
- AD | To try everything Brilliant has to offer for free for a full 30 days, visit brilliant.org/DrBecky and you'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription. | Back in 2023, we saw the first ever claim that JWST had discovered a possible signature of life in the atmosphere of an exoplanet, a planet orbiting another star in our galaxy the Milky Way. But the evidence for the claim that dimethyl sulphide exists in K2-18b’s atmosphere was weak. Now, in the past few months of 2024, we’ve had two new papers analysing the data from K2-18b which both claim there are other models that can explain K2-18b just as well, with the same level of statistical backing. So what is going on here? So let's dive into what’s going on so you can all make up your own mind.
Madhusudhan et al. (2023; hycean world with DMS evidence) - arxiv.org/pdf/2309.05566.pdf
Shorttle et al. (2024; hydrogen atmosphere with magma ocean) - arxiv.org/pdf/2401.05864
Wogan et al. (2024; mini-Neptune) - arxiv.org/pdf/2401.11082
Hu et al. (2021; prediction of the molecules present in a hycean world atmosphere) - arxiv.org/pdf/2108.04745.pdf
Benneke et al. (2019; water vapour in K2-18b's atmosphere) - arxiv.org/pdf/1909.04642.pdf
Cloutier et al. (2019; K2-18b mass) - arxiv.org/pdf/1810.04731
Foreman-Mackey et al. (2015; K2-18b discovered in K2 data) - arxiv.org/pdf/1502.04715
Seager et al. (2013; biosignatures in hydrogen atmospheres) - arxiv.org/pdf/1309.6016.pdf
JWST proposal 2722 - www.stsci.edu/jwst/phase2-pub...
JWST proposal 2372 - www.stsci.edu/jwst/phase2-pub...
00:00 - Introduction
02:45 - What do we know about K2-18b so far?
05:21 - Madhusudhan et al. (2023) - K2-18b is a hydrogen atmosphere with a liquid water ocean with dimethyl sulphide
09:33 - Shorttle et al. (2024) - K2-18b has hydrogen atmosphere with a magma ocean
11:05 - Wogan et al. (2024) - K2-18b is just a mini-Neptune
13:19 - What data do we need to figure this out?
16:37 - Bloopers
My previous video on K2-18b: • Did JWST find a MARKER...
My previous video on the markers for life JWST is looking for: • JWST is hunting for th...
Video filmed on a Sony ⍺7 IV
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👩🏽💻 I'm Dr. Becky Smethurst, an astrophysicist at the University of Oxford (Christ Church). I love making videos about science with an unnatural level of enthusiasm. I like to focus on how we know things, not just what we know. And especially, the things we still don't know. If you've ever wondered about something in space and couldn't find an answer online - you can ask me! My day job is to do research into how supermassive black holes can affect the galaxies that they live in. In particular, I look at whether the energy output from the disk of material orbiting around a growing supermassive black hole can stop a galaxy from forming stars.
drbecky.uk.com
rebeccasmethurst.co.uk 
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Awesome summary: "Promise me you'll bear all of this in mind...just because one model fits the data doesn't mean there aren't other models..." This is such a good summary of the essence of science that I will probably point my students at this video, whether we are studying anything to do with exoplanets or not.
I was thinking that as well. The thing with all this astrophysics stuff is that, until one actually sends a probe, it is all speculation.
This isn't particle physics where one does controlled experiments. This is more like archaeology or anthropology, where a new pottery shard or bone fragment can totally change all the previous explanations. Just look at what JWST has done to the field in a short period of time. We have new "digs", in effect. As Dr. Becky points out, a particular molecule is only known to be made by life on earth, and cannot come from other atmospheric processes, etc. Well, just in our solar system we know of moons and planets (we sent probes) with totally different atmospheric composition and processes.
Even in particle physics, for example, the experiment can only tend to support, or not, a particular model. This is what my physics professors, who I worked for in the High Energy Physics department, told me when I was a boy (half a century ago, actually). It's sort of the same thing. In both cases we are looking at either the very small or very large, or very short or very long timeframes, which are things we cannot directly experience.
Thanks!
@@louisgiokas2206 great comparison to archaeology! I've always been drawn to the room for debate and imagination that come alongside observations.
@DrBecky whats the story with anton petrovs new video? (Black hole jets switching directions)
Whole thing is fishy, makes no sense to me.
@@DrBeckyI hope there's actual real life there
One thing that blows my mind is that I went to university to study astrophysics not very long after the first exoplanet was discovered. I found it fascinating back then that we had the ability to detect planets around other stars. And now we're able to analyse the light passing through the atmospheres of these planets. I wonder where we'll be in another 30 years time.
Shaking trees, banging our chests and T-posing to assert dominance in the ongoing struggle to get access to potable water.
We’ll definitely have found life by then.
Hopefully we will not be debating models of an atmosphere, but with good enough data to have certainty quickly. Naturally, the goal is not just the major components of the atmosphere, but molecules which make up a small percentage. I wonder how long that will take? Also, hopefully, we will be looking at light reflecting off an atmosphere, where the planet does not transit perfectly. I want all of this!
@@lyricallysupreme unless we change our data sets, I highly doubt it. We need to focus on G type stars, similar to our Sun (output and size). And, imho, a similar age. IMHO, we aren't looking in the right places and are currently wasting our time and resources.
1st rule of media: Don't let data & scientific analysis get in the way of selling a good story.
Isn't capitalism great!!??
You're right damn it.
The original saying was never let the facts get in the way of a good story. Your version works too..
Or more funding.
@@katesmiles4208we choose truth over facts.
When the facts don't support the narrative, choose truth.
"Well, this kind of confusion, of not knowing what the actual right answer is, is science in action and it's wonderful to see."
This attitude is honestly the main reason I subscribed to your channel. I love it.
Thanks! 🤗
@@DrBeckywhat do you know about junglevrse.that you cannot tell!!!.Jwst..when proposed..supposed to see structures on exoplanet....Do you get to c any of these pics
Just want to point out that magma means underground molten rock, where lava means topside molten rock. So a magma ocean would mean an underground ocean of molten rock. I guess that's sort of what we have right here at home in our own planet. In other words, we got K2-18b at home! :D
Meanwhile here i am internally screaming a little because the liquid water IS lava and water ice IS rock. Just because we are used to exist in the temperature and pressure range where it happens to be melting all the time it doesn't mean it's not lava. And sure, H2O is no SiO4, but hey, neither are tons of other minerals on Earth. Lava/magma is a very wide concept that matches tons of materials with different chemistry
I think there was a card in the video pointing this out :P
K2-18b at home: 🌍
What do you expect from the people who consider oxygen to be a metal?
Most rock in the mantle is solid. High pressure. It only becomes liquid near the surface, at the same temperature with less pressure. Not a liquid rock ocean by any stretch.
@@sillyjellyfish2421 Aha! A willing recruit for #TeamIce in the next "Mineral Cup" event on social media. We'll freeze out those "hot lava" people yet!
Dr. Becky videos are just pure gems. Thank you again.
Ok, we need to build a bigger telescope right now.
Yeah, we do! The question is, where do we put it?
We could just find people with smaller eyes, save a lot of money.
@@davelordy It just might work!!!!!!
Already in the works. Just 20 years away
They are.
I simply love your channel because you illustrate quite well how same data can be interpreted in many different ways. And which is why we need to keep asking questions and obtaining more data to better understand our universe just a little more clearly.
Awesome analysis. You break it down nicely for the layman. Appreciate you! Keep up the great work.
THANKS! I saw the headlines but didn't even bother to read, hoping it'd be covered here, especially if it wasn't the usual news hype.
I was in high school when discovery of the first exoplanet was announced. And now, we might soon have evidence of life on them. It almost feels like science fiction.
For most of my life, it was considered that detecting planets around other stars was beyond our capability.
It is.
I listen to this and am reminded of the old saying:
Lies, damned lies and STATISTICS.
Excellent explanation of something that goes so far over my head it could be in orbit
😊
As Jack Nicholson put it, You can't handle the truth.
Science has gone down the road of telling little lies in order to get government funding. Now they are having to make up bigger lies in order to get bigger grants.
JWST has found life on Planet 51. Now we need a bigger telescope to confirm it. We need money to build a radio-telescope array to listen for signals in case they might be communicating with us.
It's always the same with these scammers.
Came here to say the same thing.
Statistics don't lie. They often don't say what people don't want them to say, and some people lie with statistics by judiciously omitting confounders (and of course variance).
But the numbers themselves don't lie.
Gotta be careful with statistics.
25% of crashes are caused by drink drivers.......75% sober drivers.
Therefore it's safer to drive whilst drunk 😉
Statistics is a relatively simple field. More people should do it - and would benefit from it. If it didn't depend, in significant degree, on calculus, I'd say rearranging compulsory maths education to ditch the calculus in favour of (applied) statistics would be a good thing.
Pundits and politicians who like to hide reality behind confusingly inappropriate layers of statistical bullshit would hate that - it would be so much harder for them to lie to their audiences. So it'll never happen.
I really like the way you cover this by talking through each of the papers.
I really hope the media interest continues because that's how we inspire new people and hopefully encourage Governments to continue funding research into things that have no real current practical benefit at a time of pressing budget issues.
The Chinese landing on the moon again and a likely cold war developing between China and Western democracies will hopefully encourage the US and other Western nations to put more resources into space exploration similar to what happened in the 1950s and 1960s where we went from the first satellite to landing on the moon in 12 years because each side was scared of being left behind.
When I was growing up I fully expected that progress to continue and that interplanetary spaceflight would be routine nowadays but sadly, despite some impressive unmanned missions and telescopes like Hubble and JWST, we've mostly tread water as far as human exploration is concerned.
it'll inspire some and cause others to say THEY ARE JUST GUESSING! A NEW THEORY EVERY WEEK, which is actually how science works when something better or conflicting comes along.
As a non-scientist, but an armchair science enthusiast, it drives me crazy to see the claims that some of these "scientists" make using such imperfect data. The ambiguity in the data leaves way too much room for interpretation to make a claim this important.
Another great video... Thanks Dr. Becky
Call me back when found an earth-sized planet arround a G-Star with life signs on it.
I've found one. I just looked down. No intelligent life, unfortunately.
@@bujin1977 😂good one
You'll wait a long time for that call. Like an eternity.
Your excitement about hat you do is invigorating and I enjoy listening to you explain plausible possibilities of complex scenarios is mesmerizing. I'm a retired Industrial teacher and I know when someone is doing a great job. I do share your astronomical interest. Have a sunny day and a clear night!
Thanks so much for creating and sharing this informative video. Great job. Keep it up.
Love you Dr B!
Thank you as always for making the complex easy to understand for the casual observer.
Always excited when a new becky video drops! Space videos at night is the vibe🤩
Thank you for this great report! I've subscribed and I'm looking forward to more. As I watched, I was paying as much attention to the data analysis as to K2-18b itself. I'm applying to a Masters program in economics, and for that I'll need to know statistics and other analytical tools. So as your video got toward the end I was thinking, OK, time to start on that. And hey ho there you go, you're talking about Brilliant and its new material on data analysis. Synchronicity -- you gotta love it. Thank you for that too.
Cheers,
Chris Schulman
Thank you for another great video Doctor. One for the algorithm! 🙂
Fascinating stuff! Thank you Dr Becky!! 👏👏
I will never kneel before Zod.
😂🤣🤣 Good one!!
Good to get those kind of declarations out there early. You avoid the inevitable rush should Zod ever actually show up.
Zod dammit!!
What about Mega Maid?
So we can calculate redshift but Alexa still doesn't know how much time there's left on the timer?!
Great exposition. Thanks Dr Becky!
This is why I love science so much; there’s always something new and interesting going on! From exoplanets to the age of the Universe, it is so exciting!
Thank you Dr Becky, and all scientists who make it so exciting to be alive in this day and age!👍🏼
The second amazing outlook on our frontier for space science. Thank You Dr Becky you are amazing also great work your videos are inspiring in so many ways
I'm back in school now, majoring in Dr. Becky. This is so fascinating.
When grow up I want to study space so watching you is really useful
I just started following BBC earth science and was pleasantly surprised to see you on it.
I appreciate your presenting varied theories associated with represented data. Again I do enjoy your presentation
Knowledge and facts are worthy to pass on.
Just got your book. Thank you.
Hope you enjoy it!
@@DrBecky
It has arrived Yay!
Only at Standing on the shoulders of Giants, but am enraptured by it.
Hardback, script well centred, and the leaves don't stick, the paper quality good.
I struggle to put it down Dr..
Love it.
Best exposition of the data. Kudos Dr. Becky. However, DMS can be produced by chemical processess. The first one is by reacting methanol and hydrogen sulfide. Methanol can be prouced by the reaction CH4+CO2→CH3OH+CO albeit at high T (600-1000 C). There are other ways to produce methanol. Also the reaction CO2+3H2→CH3OH+H2O also produces methanol but in the presence of metal catalysts such as Cu/ZnO/Al₂O₃. However even this reaction requires a T of 200 C to 270 C. I cannot exclude it though and it may be occuring in the "hot" zone of the planet and then spread in th atmosphere. So did they look for and find any metals? There is methane and water so I consider the reaction plausible! Dr. Nick, Biochemist
Thanks again for your work!!! Having Astrophysics broken down like this is amazing!!! I love to learn but as my dream job (I work in Chemistry) is sometimes demanding I don't have time to read as many papers in other fields as I would like so your channel is much much appreciated!!!
Well done, thank you.
You're a great teacher, Dr. Becky!
Nails on point! also, damned great show.
Thanks!
Well that's my holiday to K2-18b ruined.
Thank you Dr. Becky!
Thanks for a great summary of the current studies on K2-18b. My only issue with the Wogan conclusion is that ammonia was not detected at all and would be expected for a mini-Neptune. They touch on it in the paper saying there are some reasons why a mini-Neptune might not have that much NH3 but it seems like an afterthought especially since Madhusudhan had already noted the non-detection of ammonia in concluding it was likely a Hycean world (presumably ruling out a mini-Neptune) . Looking forward to seeing the new analysis of the new data.
We've achieved so many milestones in human civilization, yet we will be discovered by aliens based on fart we produce.
You can't hide a fart forever lol
we fart loud here
A fart on a planet 8x mass than Earth would be quite the fart.
Never trust a fart
"Like a fart in the wind."
Thank you Dr. Becky, you make me love science so much!
Super insightful video! The scientific method can be quite sobering but it's our best path towards unbiased truths
Agreed. Progress is rarely in the way you'd expect. Many people jumped the gun with those claims of room temperature superconductors as well. We all want to see emotionally evocative results and that can skew the conclusions we draw from data. I think the replication crisis is testament to that.
Huge thank you for the explanation and your objectiveness! I just enjoy to watch your videos. And hate the sensationalist media liars and the claims of the fanatical believers.
I am looking forward to see more stuff from you.
Another fine example of Betteridge's law
Thanks for all the info, dr. Becky! 😊
Stay safe there with your family! 🖖😊
Great explanation
Thanks Dr.
Keep it coming Dr Smethurst, your a light in our dark imagination 😂
A missed opportunity to use a clip of Dr.Evil saying “Mag-marrr”…
Thank you!
I always fall back to the trope: it is never aliens' until it is!
Very cool. As much as I'd love to find evidence of life, I really appreciate this discussion of all the neat possibilities!
A very interesting video. I am intrigued by the point of nitrogen dissolving in magma.
Another excellent presentation of published papers that identifies the issues at stake and the path to resolving the different conclusions.
@DrBecky If there was a telescope that would use the mass of our own star or the mass of another distant object to focus, could we learn more about this exoplanet with the gravitational lens effect?
Using our own Sun as a gravitational lens is not viable due to its very high brightness wrt background. So any other thing u r trying to collect data for will be washed out
@@kedarsharma487 Értem, akkor használjunk bármilyen más viszonylag nagytömegű objektumot az említett exobolygó és közöttünk, továbbra is az a kérdés, hogy sikerülhet többet megtudni ezzel a módszerrel? Érdemes az új módszerre fejleszteni új teleszkópot?
na
neptune is not gas all the way down
it must have a solid layer at some point
if not from metalic elements then from pressure
Na. Do some basic research.
@@davidhoward4715 its like Berkley's subjectivism, i only see clouds and no surface so there must be no surface
Cheers from the Pacific West Coast of Canada.
Interesting video to understand the level of analysis that goes into making every assumption, it's amazing thank you for revealing these to the under educated every day Joe like me. Also what stops someone like the Dr in the video from publishing her own findings? Is there monitary entry barrier or restricted data access just curious. Thank for an an amazing video I would keep coming back to try and understand eventually.
Looks like a good nesting place for Dark Helmet ....
I wonder what would happen if all of the scientists agreed that there IS life on some planet 100+ light years from earth.
That will happen as soon as we can watch an episode of "Aliens got Talent"
@@forMacguyver well said.
'Show me what you got'
Then there would be a great deal of compelling evidence for that.
I can’t think of anything we could observe that would convince 100% of scientists that we had confirmed life. At best we may get to “a majority of scientists think it more likely than not” and even then I’m not sure what we would observe that would get us there.
It's fascinating to see these concepts and their significance as well as the caveats involved be explained in such clear fashion.
I'm not dissuaded by the uncertainty of data retrieved and analysed. That's what science is: indicate where doubt hides in the numbers, why and what the next step is to figure out a better answer which generates new and better questions in turn.
Science is hard for a reason but it's totally achievable when we are honest about the results.
"It's never aliens, until it is" -Matt O'Dowd PBS Space Time
But it never is.
this was a good video.
One thing I have learnt in all my time on this planet is "don't believe everything you read in the newspapers", especially "don't believe anything about advancements in science that you read in the newspapers"
One thing I have learned is that learnt is not a word....
I like the very old saying of:- Never believe everything you hear, and only half of what you see.
In my freshman astronomy course, our professor did a whole segment on science media literacy. I thought it was ridiculous at the time, but man I can spot things in other fields that aren't real with ease now. I have my degree in physics so I can usually tell whether some stuff like this is true or not, but for biology and stuff it is really nice to know what signs to look for. Something fun about that course was that we had to write an article that was fake and used the same tactics that science journalists use, and my girlfriend at that time looked at what I was writing while I was in the bathroom and I came back to her looking horrified at the article I wrote about the moon spiraling towards the earth since I had told her I was working on a paper for that class. It gave me a good laugh.
@Alexander_Grant if you really have a degree in physics, then explain gravity. Explain time-dilation. Explain the daily and yearly tides if you are familiar with the moon and its orbit around the planet.
Before things kinda fell apart for them, most newspapers would have one or more science reporters who at least had some training or experience with a scientific field. Their job was to read the scientific papers and simplify them for the public -- the newspapers had a policy to keep the language/concepts simple enough to be understand by a 6th grader (or an adult with only a 6th grade education). When the rising tide of online media began driving print sales down into the sub-basements, those specialized reporters were the first ones that were cut... which left the general news reporters now trying to figure out complex reports and studies that were most definitely not written at a 6th grade level, with the disappointing results we have today :(
This was a very good and well explained video. Based on what you laid out I'm going to be cautiously optimistic for life but it's probably more likely it's a mini-Neptune. Hopefully the new data coming out will shed light and maybe settle everything.
Here's to life being on that planet.
Becky, is it not possible to use spectroscopy data from other space observatories which can detect other parts of the EM spectrum to distinguish between CH4 and DMS?
That was a classic case of "Betteridge's law" right there :-)
Love the video, thank you for the brilliant science facts without the hype.
I found your channel via a lecture you did on another science lecture channel recently. Based on what you said in that lecture, I thought I'd let you know for the algorithm, I'm female. Hope that helps.
Dr. Becky, can you give us some information about the cars on the shelves behind you?
Good job as always, thanks. Extraordinary claims always require extraordinary justification. But, the publicity is good for public engagement, which may help boost interest and even funding!
If there's different advanced chemistry that become sentient then sebient not just aware. Of the world like an animal o maybe even a cell. But able to manipulate the world together more awareness like build telescopes and detect our atmosphere. Would they recognize a bio signature sense there basic chemistry is different . .
I hope someday everyone will come to enjoy their job as much as it seems you do.
We're still going to need even larger space telescopes to confirm this. Once SpaceX's _Starship_ is operational, we could launch something really big like LUVOIR (Large Ultraviolet/Optical/Infrared Surveyor), which will have several times the resolution of JWST and could better resolve the atmosphere of other exoplanets.
Hey HeyDr. Becky! You're the COolest
What if K218 be has living moon
If we were looking at Earth from K2-18B what could/would/should the Sigma value of Dimethyl sulfide look like using the same models? Can we estimate that?
Basically what's the range of a sigma value where we can reasonably get excited?
Makes me think - how about a mini neptune world with life? What if something somehow managed to evolve in the supercritical area of the planet? A gas that acts partially as liquid could maybe work for that. I wonder what the model for that would look like
what would the x2r value be if you just drew a straight line through 0.292 or so?
those are some cool looking car models in the background (McLaren F1 Lego model; looks like another McLaren below it and a Jeep?)
The only way I could see the Hycean model being right is if the planet formed further out from its star and has migrated inwards. I would think this would give it a higher chance of holding an atmosphere since it wouldn't be close enough to have the atmosphere fully stripped away. But then that would be just speculation since I don't know of a way where we could tell if planetary migration has occurred. Especially if this is being done with the transit method alone.
Hi Dr Becky, I am curious to know whether AI is being used at all in the fitting of the models to the absorption spectra? If not, is this something that is being worked on to increase the accuracy of identifying the chemical composition?
Seems like the K star the Orange Star should be the best shot at supporting planets that may have life. It is more stable and lasts basically for ever. What does everyone think?
Given that hycean atmospheres are essentially the same as gas planets' atmospheres, wouldn't a hycean world be just as well-protected from flares as any mini-Neptune?
Hmm... I don't think so.
I don't think it'd be about "protection" from flares... I don't think that's even a thing on the scale of red dwarf level violence and orbits that close. Rather, if you have a planet that's similar in composition to (but bigger than), say, Venus, you have about 99.9% planet to 0.1% atmosphere, or about 1/1000th of the planet's total mass that's _capable_ of being stripped by the star.
If you have a gas giant of the same mass, it's nearly 100% atmosphere. As the outer layers get stripped, more and more and more just expands to replace it until the entire planet is gone.
So, imagine the star can strip one one-millionth of the planet's mass per million years... that would mean it would completely strip the atmosphere of the hycean world in about 1 billion years. To see what we've seen, it'd need to be a very young planet, and either a very unusual capture, or around a very young star, all of which reduce the likelihood of that explanation.
In the same billion years, it would have reduced an 8.5 Earth-mass mini-neptune to an... 8.499 Earth-mass mini-neptune, despite having stripped the same amount of atmosphere from each, with no protection at all. It probably wouldn't even change its apparent size even a little, and we'd see... well, exactly what we see, and we'd continue to see that indefinitely into the future, up to a _trillion_ years from now.
FOR SUPER EARTH!
Why would they not have observed with Miri along with the 2 other instruments the 1st time? Was it scheduling or transit time or some other reason?
Why didn't Wogan et al calculate the chi-square for the magma ocean model?
8 g seems like less of an obstacle since we have life that can exist at the bottom of the ocean. Pressure is not a huge problem. That's in water, of course
How would an increase in resolution improve the quality of results when analyzing the atmosphere’s gaseous content?
Increased resolution means more pixels per same observed area means less noise in data means more accurate data with better fidelity (more individually measured points within the same range of scale).
@@sillyjellyfish2421 👍🏻
Exciting! Thanks Dr. Becky!
You literally didn’t even watch the video, it came out 2 minutes ago 💀
@@Dimension37 It would be weird if I was excited for the video only after watching it.
Yep, that's cool! Even if this doesn't end up being the candidate, it's still cool to have it and learn from it!
Feels like the first collaboration really want a square peg to fit into a round hole. Meaning did they acknowledge that there is also a round peg (the mini Neptune model)that fits that round hole?
I'd love to know why different groups of researchers tend to settle on very different ways of explaining the same data. Did the groups that "found" DMS even consider the magma or mini Neptune model or do they just publish the very first model that somewhat fits the data? Is it just a lack of imagination or incentives to publish "big" findings?
Off topic question: Could an object created many eons ago, possibly during the big bang or shortly after, be moving at or near the speed of light? We use gravitational assist to accelerate space craft, could an object that has been around for a very long time have reached immense speeds?
Any info about Jades-GS-Z14-0 galaxy with a lot of metals in it composition.
Been there. Extremely jarring. Life is fragile. I hope to g-d you're okay. Changes are good that you are.
log scales of 3rd and 7th graph at 7:30 clearly show the DMS concentration leading more towards plasma life form.