Why Starlink Could Be Worth Trillions - Starlink Valuation (Ep. 179)
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- Опубликовано: 25 авг 2024
- In this video I make a case of why Starlink could be worth over $1 trillion by 2030. To volunteer for research (at least 5 hrs/week), contact me at davelee.tv or via Twitter @heydave7. Watch my previous Deep Dive on Starlink video, • SpaceX Starlink Deep D... .
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There's another great RUclips video out there that explains how the "true" revenue stream is going to come from selling higher speed data access to trade desk so that they can execute trades faster than they do now. The consumer "angle" is just a plus. Love your vids Dave.
sounds interesting, do you have a link?
@@sofoklos ruclips.net/video/giQ8xEWjnBs/видео.html
This not Elon's goal though, yes it could happen, but Elon wants to help the world out at make the internet accesable everywhere for everyone, so the world can learn faster and more brilliant brains can get information easier.
Howeverthough, Starlink is ment to fund the journey to Mars, so you might be right.
@@mauirce13f he wants to make the internet accessible to everyone at a cost. Like Tesla he’s doing great things to help the environment but leaving you dry and penniless in the process 😂
Dave is always breaking the story way before anybody else even sees the opportunity.
Most valuable ever!! Such an impactful service to the world!
You missed the crown jewel for long haul: stock trading. Starlink can transfer trades brtween the stock exchanges faster than anything else. The NYSE has a Starlink dish on its roof. It beams the bits to a satellite at the speed of light, takes a few hops between the satellites at the speed of light, then down to the dish at the London stock exchange. Faster than going across the ocean.
whoa!
Hard working Dave Lee at it again
Great video Dave. I havent really checked prices in other countries but that $60 monthly price sounds very high here in Finland. Atm paying 20€ for 100Mbit/s and same price for mobile 20€ same speed and unlimited data.
Agreed, my high speed broadband in London, UK is only about $30 equivalent.
You are right, for a lot of people in countries like yours it's not a good choice. But you are not the customer they are targeting.
You guys are lucky. It’s a ripoff in the US and even worst in Canada
@@rubex. but if they're not targeting at typical citizen / country where broadband is widely available and cheaper then $60, then how do you get to 10%?
well i think starlink will offer diffrent prices to diffrent regions/countries? also starlink will cover the whole world ?
Hey Dave, I think a larger breakdown of where those 100 mil houses will come from will be super important. My gut feel (no research so I could be completely wrong) is that $60/mo for internet is relatively more expensive (not factoring in the cost of a satellite as well). Given that the majority of people without internet access reside in developing nations (again going out on a limb here), wouldn't $60/mo + $500 for a satellite be too expensive? JIO in India was able to successfully scale their business because their internet service is dirt cheap, and you saw exponential growth of people with internet access in India over the last 10 years. I'd like to get your feedback on why you think 100 mil users is realistic.
really good insight here. 60 dollars a month might be normal or a little bit on the expensive side for people on the US, but for developing countries, that's a laughably ridiculous amount. 60 dollars might be 50% to 80% of a household's monthly income.
Jio fiber has 300mbps for $20/month + Disney+,Netflix,AMZN Video & more. Dave’s on the right track, but he’s tripping on 1T.
Totally agree with you Rahul, I am from India too. 100 million households subscribers seem too outlandish plus $60/month is say too expensive for developing nations like India.
Plus what is this International internet services is and why would you need it for?
Agree
You can add up 100 million households lacking proper internet connectivity from just the US, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and the Philippines. Given that 5 countries have enough market availability to meet that number, I'm confident that globally they'll be able to capture 100 million customers despite that higher cost of access. Especially given the possibility of sharing the service among 3-5 households. 60$ a month might be too much for a household in china only bringing in 180$, but if they split it with 5 other nearby households they still get ~30mbps of bandwidth per household which is considered high speed) and the per household cost is now only 12$, still significant for their budget, but considering the access they get, probably worth it. In JUST China and India that opens up about 300 million customers if ALL of them share access between 5 households, based on TODAY'S populations. I expect the actual number of potential customers to exceed that significantly in the next 12 years. At the 60$ price point I think their potential market globally is about 1 billion paying customers, and I expect they'll capture about 300 million, eventually but not necessarily by 2030.
All that is to say that they COULD get away with that price point, but I think once they are consistently profitable they'll be able to lower prices dramatically. I think a 20$ entry level price for broadband equivalent bandwidth is a couple years away. They could completely fund the constellation off the profits from the higher price point customers in rich countries and have lower access tiers in poorer countries that while individually less profitable, cost little extra for the company to maintain, provide a public good, and open up massive profit opportunities otherwise locked behind the high price barrier to entry. They could easily put the user terminal on a lease program after the network is able to balance the large debt that would incur, they could get payments down to 5-10$ a month to lease the terminal out at the current cost to manufacture, as they scale up their cost will go down and eventually the lease cost will get to 3$ a month by my estimate. So when they get to that point their potential market opens up to closer to 1.8 billion customers, and I think a 50% capture rate is on the high side of possible, but doable. For now lets say they capture 750 million users, they have an average total revenue per customer at around 26$ a month, and they spend about 30 billion per year on maintaining the network including customer service. That means their gross profit will be about 204 billion per year. Even at normal telecom multiples of 6X profits that puts them soundly over a 1 trillion dollar market cap even without the Elon market cap multiplier applied.
Nice! Super helpful.
Cant wait for your next starlink research video 👍🏽👌🏾
The day this IPO's, Iam jumping in with both feet
When is that day though
@@ericanderson5195 Save money until the IPO.
When they go IPO, you won't want to pay their IPO price.
@@4b11t9 why?
@MarkThisWayAfter oh ok, thanks for your response :)
Amazing analysis,great job
"One more thing..." "another $1T in market cap through long haul internet". Steve Job's "one more thing" was never that BIG. 👍👍👍
Just discovered your channel and loving every bit of it. Thanks so much for enlightening us.
The more TSLA you hold and the time you’ve held it will give us as retail investors a better opportunity to be the early birds when he decides its time to go public. That is huge!
When I first heard of starlink ages ago I wanted to put all my money into it. The next best thing was Tesla, so I did that instead. I’m still dying to get my money into starlink.
Whats the best platform for starlink?
Hi Dave - just want to say thank you for your videos and thoughts, you share with us. Greetings from Germany !
Hey, thanks!
Hey Dave, great work on starlink. Could you go in depth, maybe on one of your future videos, on when starlink might ipo, how and best way to get in early, and is there opportunities to get in pre ipo? Thanks.
Great information Dave. Can’t wait for actual Starlink direct listing.
Dave, thank you for your great research. To answer your question, yes these deep dives are essential and extremely useful.
Glad you think so!
I have followed Tesla for the
past couple of years and the traction it has gained is amazing. I am defo on
board with Starlink. I think it will be a fantastic product. I am a satellite
TV installer in the UK and really excited to invest in Starlink!
Hi Dave, Really excited about your Starling unboxing. Thank you for your explanation and ideas.
$60/month is pretty hefty compared to todays 10 to 20 bucks for unlimited local internet access (in Europe) today. For some rich RUclipsrs it might a bargain but the question is: will we have 100mn RUclipsrs assigning to a $60 or $100 contract? Especially I would assume that the ones having no access to fast internet today, are probably not the ones willing to pay such high prices. So make it $30/month and it becomes a loss making company in your scenarios.
Totally agree. Other than US and few other developed nations, $60/month is a wrong assumption to make. Most of the developing world pays $10-$15/month for internet access.
Starlink has great potential as a company for sure, but the valuation assumptions have a flaw.
Thanks Dave I am definitely interested in investing in starling. One thing that I struggle with is the cost per month though, it seems really high so im not sure what the customer that they are aiming at is
Elon has already hinted the IPO will be over subscribed and he'll basically look after his loyal share holders.. the allocation of shares for the IPO in starlink is thought to be based on current holders of Tesla stock having preference..
God I hope so, I wanting to get into Starlink from the beginning. It's business model just makes so much sense, and it's market is freakishly big.
My broadband internet costs 15 usd per month in Europe (download 250-450 mbps, upload 25-30 mps). You may not be aware of it, but Americans pay way too much for broadband connections than other countries.
If you already have broadband, then Starlink isn't aimed at you. It will not compete with ISPs who already offer high speed service. It's for the huge swaths of the globe where broadband isn't an option at all.
@@lynansheng My intention was to drive home the fact that 60 usd per month that Dave used in his calculations is way more than what people in other countries will be willing to pay.
@@lynansheng Most of the world that doesn't have broadband are poor countries where people don't even have disposable income of $60 a month. For example Nigeria in Africa average monthly income is about $200 a month how the hell they going to pay 30% of their monthly income for broadband?
Also the poor countries will probably go straight to 4G/5G cellular. For example almost everyone in India has internet access via cellular networks. The country of 1.4 billion people only has about 20 million fixed broadband lines and they only pay about $13/month on average for broadband
Nice analysis Dave! 2 things:
1) Why do you assign a multiple to gross profit instead of GAAP profit (which is what people usually do for PE ratio)?
2) I think the internet of things and 5G will greatly increase the demand for internet bandwidth, especially those requiring low latency. An example: getting autopilot cars to respond to each other. So in the end it wouldn't only just be households but also many commercial entities, drivers etc subscribing as well.
3) There may be technological barriers that need to be addressed. For instance, satellite internet can be affected by bad weather making it an unreliable source.
Thanks Dave...great work! Would you please add slide numbers in the future?
Thanks Dave. You have a great mind.
So how and when can we buy starlink stocks?
Elon said the IPO will be in a couple years once the company is profitable and stable. He has also mentioned he will give retail investors top priority. Which is awesome for us little fish.
To me the only way they go to 100m subscribers is if the price is $10-$20 a month,
so basically $10b-$20b revenue a year and a gross profit of $5b-$10b.
With a 30 multiple that's market cap of 150b to 300b company in 10 years.
$60-$100 a month is way too much.
Pls do a follow up video on the 50% long broadband transfer with some numbers cause we can't evaluate what's the earnings potential is there.
He Dave, thanks for another insightful video. My questions/topics for a future video would be to more accurately look at the addressable market for Starlink, both in terms of households and businesses. Would it just be households and businesses in remote areas that would apply and how many of these areas would actually even be able to afford the monthly fees? The long haul internet aspect seems to me like the more clear path for Starlink to disrupt than individual consumer connections. That makes it easier to calculate what the potential revenue could be once you find the base numbers for that industry. Anyway, looking forward to your next videos and happy camping.
Great. However, when can I buy shares or fractional shares? (not a millionaire yet). Also, geofencing was shown on the screen, but not explained while the slide was up
If Elon expects Starlink to serve only 10% of the population and you're projecting that they'll cover that 10% by 2030, then that means their consumer service won't be growing much after 2030. That means the growth will come primarily from the long-distance traffic. That being said, if the consumer service portion isn't growing much anymore, I would argue the multiple (based only on the consumer service business) should be lower (15x-25x) instead of 30x-50x. That would mean a 2030 market cap of $500 to $900 billion. The long-distance traffic will add additional value, but that's not included in the estimate here.
Could have a hard time entering India too. The govt banned sattelite comms devices and even personal rescue beacons because they couldn't track that form of communication. I had to hide my Inreach device deep in my bag so customs wouldn't find it
The one million dollar question is if there is 100 Million people on rural areas that can pay 100 USD dollars a month plus the 500 USD installation costs.
Thanks Dave, I learned something interesting today through your videos. A thought. Will Starlink become a media provider? Morphing into supporting its own programming to capture infotainment market? Are we seeing the Tencent partnership with Tesla as a precursor?
Starlink will be top quality, high in demand, low overheads, little competition.
Did the receiver pass the drop test?😂😂😂
Love Starlink and can’t wait for their IPO.
Keep up the good work Dave!
What is the timeline for Starlink IPO? Also, i believe Elon said Tesla owners would get dibs. Is this correct?
As usual! What a great content!
👏🏽👏🏽great work , thank you for sharing
Love this type of video 😀...when you have time..can you please do this on NIO? Thank you
a 50 times, hmmm it might depends on the fiber optic saturation and only if every one servers gets rocket sabrent nvme improvement, only then will choose the starlink shortcut over the land trafic
Always, love your analysis and watch your videos multiple times. One issue I see in your analysis is the service fee because not many will be able to afford $60. I think even $6 is too expensive in some countries, so I am not sure if 1T market cap is feasible with internet service fee.
Great video Dave very informative how let's say because of starlink being in a rural areas because of starlink people would be buy computers, tablets, streaming services, and if it's very fast gaming could go I think a trillion is generous.
I hope international retail investors will be able to get in aswell, i own tesla so hopefully that could be a way in aswell.
These are great videos! Fantastic analysis
Glad you like them!
I like them too
13:20 For more on that I recommend Andrew Blum's Book "Tubes"
Hi Dave, really enjoying your coverage and thought process. I do feel that the average price per user will have a lot of downward pressure because this is the first service that brings high speed Internet to the developing world. However, since the developing world is not laying fibre because it's too expensive, I feel that there will be a great deal of government support in these countries as it is by far the cheapest way to get this access. I see bulk purchases in these countries at low per user rates subsidized by government and much higher, but still competitive rates in the first world countries. It will also be a game changer for education and entrepreneurship in these countries ultimately becoming a great wealth equalizer. No question a generational company. Keep the analysis coming.
worldwide average household salary is $12k not sure almost 10% going to internet connection would be affordable,
Thanks Dave! Really useful as usual.
Also, you were only talking about single users, what about commercial users? like data centers etc, this could be a disruptor for much more
I think you're missing an interesting application.
Ever read Flash Boys by Michael Lewis? It's about the crazy amounts of money traders will spend to get their transactions between exchanges as quickly as possible.
Starlink is designed for low latency, and light travels through vacuum 50% faster then through fiber, making it physically impossible for fiber networks to compete on latency (especially long distance).
Therefore, i'm sure there will be high frequency traders willing to pay a crapload of $ to get Starlink priority data service for market arbitrage.
10% of the global internet users might pay the $99/ month but it would be interesting ( more time than i am willing to put in at the moment )
to guess where those 10% paying customers are waiting for internet service. ( remote places in Montanna or Utah ) but how many rural Chinese farmers are willing to pay that price?
Good and valid point about the chinese regulation ( don't they regulate internet content currently?)
Good one Dave.
Great Video Dave, I'm glad you looked at the risks. My issue is, What will entice existing internet customers to change to starlink? If they are not in remote areas as I can imagine that is a smaller addressable market. 👍🚀
$60 / month is reasonable in first world countries, but is it reasonable in Africa, Asia, S America ? Its mass appeal is dependent on its price just like drugs in first world countries are rolled out at much lower prices in 3rd world countries.
It's not likely to gain so many customers at that high a price point
India is $13 average cost for broadband
Even if starlink price was $30/month and the box goes from $500 to $200 it's too much
well presented
Hi Dave, $60/mo is a super high subscription for most of the people around the world where in many cases is almost 60% of monthly salary. Also you made a right assumption that it might not be allowed in China. Additionally in India where the data charges is the lowest in the world, companies like Reliance Jio is making significant investments in expanding the network across the nation. With these, I feel the scope for starlink reduces significantly. I still love everything that Elon does.
Love info about starlink. The real question about investing in it is: will you sell tesla shares to buy starlink? The cash needed to invest in starlink needs to come from somewhere and ppl watching are likely long and big tesla now.
Thanks for your information
There's a couple of problems with what you're suggesting. Firstly, a large percentage of the population is in large cities, and starlink doesn't work as well in dense population areas. Second, there is a bandwidth consideration. Elon has said all along that Starlink is predominantly targeted at rural, underserved areas. I don't know the exact numbers, but I don't think the system could handle a billion households. I think I remember him saying when Starlink reaches 4 or 5 hundred million, the system will start to have bandwidth difficulties.
Africa has 1.2 Billion people without good access to internet due to lack of infrastructure, already Starlink has a big future market to target.
Yes easy money for Elon ... ähm ... NO!
The Average African doesn't pay $60 per month for Internet because he probably doesn't own a phone.
Or he already has a cheaper phone/satellite phone.
Good stuff, I'm always interested to hear what you say.
Just a heads up for Tesla investors out there, I think that a Starlink IPO will cause a massive disruption in Tesla stock price immediately after Starlink rolls out the IPO, because I guarantee that every Tesla investor is paying attention to SpaceX. So even if you are not interested in investing in Starlink, it might be a good idea to liquidate some shares to avoid this volatility (which I assume will result in a short-term price decline).
Thank you Dave, you are a gem.
$60 is too high, because 90% are fibers and those are significantly cheaper. So we need to see a thesis why 60 would be an reasonable estimation. Second, in 2030 it wouldn't be a high growth stock, in fact, in the video Dave actually assumed it would only double its revenue from 2025 to 2030, so that's not a high growth by any means, so it probably wouldn't deserve a multiple of 30-50. Overall I enjoy Dave's videos and think he is a v down to earth and v sensible guy.
Great work David! What do you think of a potential short on HughesNet?
I was talking to a friend about this and even $60 / month for internet is very very expensive. I'm based in Singapore and I pay S$39.90 for a 1GB/s connection. This is about US$30 / month. I think Starlink's success is only possible if they can drill down to the local level in each country and compete on price. Internet connection is a commodity and Starlink's advantage over a traditional telco is the ability to use existing infrastructure to serve a global audience. As such, they need raw volume and part of the execution strategy would be allowing anyone anywhere to get a reliable connection at prices lower than the competition.
For me, my total internet connection bill is US$30 / month (fibre) and US$ 20 / month (6 GB of mobile data). That's a total consumer spend of US$50 / month. Obviously this goes even lower when you consider how cheap data is in India.
If they break starlink off of spacex then does that mean they need to pay spacex the market price for launches?
Doubt Starlink will be a GENERATIONAL company because most people live in cities and won't have a reason to switch so unlikely to become part of the culture. However, Starlink could still make a ton of money in long distance B2B internet traffic - would like to hear more on this 🙂
One issue that a lot of analyst with say Tesla is they look at it like an automotive company without any real understanding of the technological strengths of Tesla. On your research you need someone that has an understanding into developing electronics. There are many important technological for Starlink to over come. laser intersatellite communications is an important development,
The world in 10 years time will be a totally different place than today, projections I believe will not hold in such an AI driven economy with possible exponential growth. Elon Musk is currently at the heart of the revolution, developing Starship that will drastically reduce access to space and will be a game changer. Musk also understand the importance of the tech that makes the tech; this maybe this will be his most important legacy.
my question is more on infrastructure to be handel 100million concurrent ?
The experts that have looked into this say that it will never make money.Very few people will ever use it.
Multiples of 40 only applies if the company hasn't saturated. Otherwise a 15-20 multiple is more reasonable, if you want a 5-7% return on your money.
wow. Great video! Really wish could volunteer! Were I not in my 60s I'd be on this wonderful opportunity like an ant on a sugar cube.
Thank you!
How soon do you think they'll IPO? I am a Tesla investor and would love to also invest in Starlink. By no means do I have a TON of money...but would like to get in as an early investor in Starlink.
They’re not going to IPO because SpaceX is going to rely on Starlink revenue to fund internal missions
@@LeviCarlton Any proof of this?
They said they'll probably ipo, but only once it's stable revenue income, so probably a couple years
There’s no proof either way, this is just my opinion based on what would make the most sense for SpaceX’s long-term goals. I think Musk’s IPO talk is basically just marketing the product.
The entire purpose of creating Starlink was to provide a constant revenue stream in a market bigger than launches, I don’t see how spinning it off achieves that goal
I would like to see 100 k subscribers for our man of knowledge Dave Lee !
Thqnk you !
Really great idea to ask for volunteers! I would gladly help but at the moment i already have two research jobs besides studying in my master programme. But i hope that other finance youtubers like Hyperchange, Tesla Daily, Solving the money problem will also consider to take some help with research. This could start something great!
Can you kindly explain how you come up with “100 mln customers”? That’s 1 of every 80 people on the planet. My considerations here are:
-1 starlink per 60 people in a 3rd world village probably works fine for them
-you can’t use starlink in high rise apartment blocks (large part of 1st world population)
-accounting for households 1 in 80 people really becomes something like 1 in 30 households
-people of 70+ years of age are less likely to switch
Thanks in advance for sharing your thoughts 🙏
He is assuming 1 billion households, so 7-8 people per household by looking at worlds population.
Jim zhang yes, but is he also assuming they capture 100% of the market? (The market being 10% of all internet)
That’s pretty unreasonable IMHO, not because Starlink isn’t good enough but because ultimately some of the market doesn’t even know how or isn’t capable of currently purchasing your services (for a variety of reasons)
I think the price has to be lower in many parts of the world
But there could be some potentially very high paying customers for starlink:
All airplanes and ships need it
The military sure would love it
Starlink will provide the lowest latency there is between continents. This could be huge for example for financial markets. Between london and new york I think they have put a fiber optics cable just for this. Imagine what they would pay for even better latency.
Thanks Dave.
What company dose starlink have to do business with for the dish receivers so we have a way to invest even if Starlink never gose public?
My concern is how much each share of starlink will cost per share when it comes out , I hoping 100 or less, maybe wishful thinking. any guess I think 1/3 of space x ,100. per share sounds about right
Dave when do you project Starlink to IPO?
Dave, your analyzation is beautiful!
Please do more value analyzation videos!
There is no teaching videos of how to value a company and come up with a price on RUclips. Your it!
You can only find videos stating "why I like a stock" with no analyzation.
Great video💪👍
QUESTION: Besides providing internet service, do you vision or were there any articles hinting of any other revenue generating uses for these satellites? (Defense capabilities for our space force branch?)
I currently pay Xplornet $120 CAD per month for completely junk service. i am sold 10mbit down and usually get half that with many interruptions. i would love to give starlink my money... I ordered starlink just waiting if/when they will ship it.
Seems to me that Starlink has significant and sufficient private financing. Now that they're close to turning on revenue, why would they want to go public?
The market will likely be higher for starlink. My internet is decent but I rather my money go to Elon musk than Spectrum cable. Another market for starlink is being a on demand content provider like Netflix or being a cable company worldwide.
Do you edit on your ipad to ? Nice video intresting!
Hi Dave, instead of IPO/SPAC. do you think that Elon will just add starlink to Tesla ? Is that possible ? So people invested in TSLA already ?
To me it's not compelling unless it's 5G or 6G speeds. EM does that and people will be switching left/right and they become the carrier of choice. It also opens up business opportunities at those speeds not being done now.
I'd be curious if curious by 2030 they could go through 3-4 generation design satellites, as each satellite has a life span of 5-7 years.
Much higher speeds are the key.
I wonder how amazon version differs.
And yeah I'd buy stock in starlink today for the long play
Long distance is huge for multiple reasons. 1) once the laser comms between satellites is really in full swing, the speed jump across to Asia is phenomenal. As it 1/2 the speed. They spent a few hundred million to get a 10% speed savings to europe not that long ago.
2) bottleneck. Right now there is a limit in data movement over those cables, and the modest satellite transfer rates. Starlink could change all of that, and Elon can do it with surplus bandwidth. Because he's moving data between continents, it will use satellites orbiting over the oceans, and thus NOT BEING USED. Basically he'll be moving terabytes of data with satellites not really in use by ground based customers anyway.
The level of disruption Stalink is capable of is truly astounding. It's like he's Ford and the rest of the internet companies are horse and buggy companies.
Kaipur will never be built. By the time Blue Origin has their first orbital class rocket test, Starlink will have over 2,000 satellites and millions of customers.
Thanks for your shows. I wish I could understand how to invest, my writing revenue is in the dumps, thanks to covid.
Dave the title “Trilion” is mispelt. Love your material.
Ah, thanks for catching that.
@@Dave_Lee dave I wanna trade in starlink whats the best platform buddy?
I just hope I get a chance to invest in Starlink stock !
There is very little demand for satellite internet, and even if Starlink provides a benefit over current providers, that market will still be small.
It will be interesting to see if China will let Starlink into their market. Probably not unless they can control the contents.
Dave, in EU - by and large - $60 a month is too expensive ... how do you get to a 10% penetration?