I sold a house with Redfin and saved a huge chunk on commission. I also bought a house using openlistings (I believe they were acquired by open door) and received a $10,000 commission refund. If I went with a traditional agent I would’ve been close to $20,000 poorer when combining both transactions. Whether it’s open door or another online brokerage, the traditional realtor model needs disruption
Edward Tse yes. There are other value adds as well. For example Redfins app tells you which schools a certain house is zoned to, along with ratings for those schools. It also tells searchers which homes are about to come on the market, google street view integration, and virtual tours. It saves a ton of time. Traditional brokerages can’t charge 6 percent commissions anymore because of these discount brokerages like open door and Redfin. That’s disruptive
Yes, and you also limited your market exposure by 90-95%...so you probably got less then you would've through traditional real estate. In the City I live in, we are seeing multiple offer situations commonly 40-80k over asking ...imagine leaving that on the table to save a few percentage points...
Genovacide I disagree, and I can’t take your comment seriously after seeing your “90-95%” number. My house was listed on the MLS just like any other brokerage. It stayed on the market for several weeks with two packed open houses. These people all saw the same MLS. By the way, I originally hired a traditional broker but his comps were not at all aligned with mine so I let him go. That’s where Redfin came in.
100% agree with all your observations. I work in the RE industry and I have a problem with them calling the sum of their sales “revenue”, it’s Sales Volume or Production. Also the brokerage I work for does about 2000 sales transactions a year, 1/10 what OD is listing (our average SP is high though). If our brokerage owner was offered $600M (1/10 OD’s $6B valuation) I’m fairly sure the keys would be handed over and they would run. I had some IPOB pre merger and sold it after seeing 4 listings in my city’s market and just a few in a CA market. For the number of sales they are listing they should have way more listings, or their Days on Market is in the single digits, or I did not pick the city where they have 90% of their listings. I think they should have 5,000+ listings to have 20k in annual sales. Another issue you did not touch on is that their margin is fixed. 6% is regulated, 3% each side. You can’t ever substantially grow your margin, only race to the bottom with other discounters. That valuation seems nuts.
I sold my home on Craigslist in 3 days. I actually spoke to the buyers, showed them all the plusses and minuses. The family that did buy the house actually knew exactly what they were buying. Something I didn't get with the realtor that sold me the home. In Colorado it was easy. Just needed to file a document with the state, and the title company did all the legal work. I do remember an agent telling me I couldn't sell my house without their help. Alluding to it being illlegal.
@@NukemFinance probably more work, but not impossible. I feel real-estate agents make the process look confusing to their benefit. Furthermore I enjoyed meeting the family that bought my house. I never met the people that I bought the house from.
One profit stream for over open door that you seem to have overlook was the concept of wholesaling real estate. There's very little cost involved when it comes to wholesaling houses.
I purchased shares a while ago. I think I might hold at least until the ticker symbol changes, that tends to get more news on the company and drive the stock price up. I'll do what I did with SPCE sell some as it goes up to cover some costs then hold onto some shares long term. But overall was a little bummed about this one I was hoping for a more innovative company. But I do think Chamath is a pretty smart guy so probably a good long term hold.
Thanks Dave. Invaluable as you search for 10X companies. I think I've mentioned in passing in the past what I do and don't have the time or expertise to do the kind of research that you do. Your criteria for 10X companies gives me confidence that when you find one, I can look at it seriously. Thanks! Liked.
It would make sense if Opendoor or Zillow could amass home and owner data one day so useful as to recommend services related to the house (or refrigerator in need of food items or beers). You can only do this unless you buy the house first and install it with desired appliance or sensors. This is a very long game, not to mention expensive.
Seems quite intrusive don’t you think? But I digress, with the ubiquity of the “smart” everything I see more and more of the general public heading towards something of this nature; trading ones action on and offline for ease of use/convenience without thinking of the repercussions whether it be targeted adverts or even more malicious acts that prey on the layman. But hey let’s all trade our data so we can get items we didn’t think we wanted/needed but cannot live without.
Angelo Perez Sadly, like it or not, our privacy data will leak out like crazy. And people don’t mind trading data for convenience. Google already know when are you home if you use it’s thermostats. What they dint know is when do you need to buy beers or fix your roof. Fear not, it’s happening. Can Opendoor get there first? I dont know. With the ipo boost, they might.
Exactly 🤣 This video is incredibly short sighted. I'd have gone top down... market size and what needs to change to enable it. Opendoor are primed for this. Focus of profit at this point isn't relevant. Be more focused on the type of people that are investing. If they get market share then everything else will follow.
Nice to see somebody from the TSLA community talking about Chamath and his SPACs. I agree that I am not excited about the business. I am in IPOB at $10.13 so basically up 70%+. After watching the investor presentation, I decided to hold but I still have the same reservations that you do. At most, I might exercise the warrants which will increase my holdings by 33% at well below market price. Alternatively, I might sell out and reallocate the position to IPOD which is rumored to be coming soon and hope for a better company that I can be excited about. I also am in IPOC already but don't wish to increase my position on such a speculative play.
Bought 10 shares of both IPOB and IPOC at 10.34. Gonna just hold forever as a backup emergency stock. If D coming out I’ll get it too. I have faith in Chamath.
Does Chamath have continued investment after setting up the SPAC, or is he done after getting his fees? Ie does he still have skin in the game with IPOB?
As always. Love everything you do. I do think that your points on ads are great! But I do think ads do work. Not everyone can be Tesla. I was an MLO for years. (Banker) and I’ve seen everything you can think of. It’s a very complex and complicated world. (Hence the reason amazon thought of dropping in, then backed out) w that said, open doors ideas are super interesting to me! I think it’s potential is out of this world. And if ads is the way to get ppl on.... might be worth it. Now I say it’s potential is that strong. Only bc I know the process in and out. So many ppl I see countless times. Especially older ppl, whom have trouble contacting agents. Whom feel out of the loop. Not confident, etc. Their lack of the internet and communication is a flawless entry for open door. I also see them giving up bc of old age. They will sell the house just to “get it over with.” And they lose out. Open doors process would prevent this. I’d reconsider another evaluation once public.
watching this now because I'm actually an OPENDOOR customer selling a home to Opendoor in atlanta (currently in escrow) - i'm on the 2nd half of the transaction waiting for title company to finish their due diligence and then close in 2 weeks or so. I'm considering selling a second home in houston with opendoor. So far my initial impressions as a customer has been 9/10 - excellent thus far. online offer came within 5 mins! and final offer about 5 days afterwards. However as an investor I don't know how they are making money when their margins are so thin. the price i got was so good it's really within 95% of true market price which is amazing!
How was the final cost associated with the house selling? They talked about 5-8% on their website. I am looking into Opendoor as well. Would appreciate your input.
@@applelinux2002 best strategy is pit zillo offers + opendoor and take the best offer. but I still liked opendoor so so so much better, less paperwork, less stress. zillow offers - so many requests, I will not work with them again. only use them to verify the price offer from opendoor
Thanks a lot for the information! How did they estimate the repair cost etc.? Wouldn’t they send an inspector to look at the house or solely based on video walkthrough. In any way, I will give it a try.
Both buying and selling homes are complicated and stressful processes with many snags in-between. Most sellers and buyers need a hands-on real estate specialist (especially for first-timers) to walk them through what will most likely be the largest and most important purchase of their lifetime. I'm not a realtor, but I have both purchased and sold homes several times in two different states, so I say this from experience. I have a hard time seeing how this can replace a human who will be there to actually physically see things and advise their clients accordingly. Also, yes realtor fees are no joke, but keep in mind that they take on legal liability on every transaction they oversee.
With 0% interest rates home sales will skyrocket. Chamath always comes through. Someone told me that even if you are not a tech business eventually a tech company will do your business.
Yeah but tech can't answer ALL things! Certain aspects of some markets are hard to crack. I'd wait 6-12 months on this one. Margins are everything, And based on this excellent video I just don't see it. Proof of concept and scalability is so important!
Superb analysis. It's like my friends who though getting a real estate license is their ticket to print money. Turns out real estate is a very cyclical tough business. I hear from real estate professionals who love to deal with agents from Internet companies such as Redfin because these agents don't have incentive to negotiate well for their clients.
Hi Dave, another great analysis. I would be concerned with being the 'owner' of all those properties in a downturn with no one to sell to/ be forced to sell at a price lower than expected. It boils down to how good their AI systems help with predicting prices accurately in difficult times. Would you consider doing a video on SPACs in general?
I did try to analyse lemonade with all the teachings you gave Dave. It was helpful but I'm still a beginner :-). So I would indeed appreciate your analysis and thoughts. Thx.
I tried Opendoor before, their offer was really low, much worse than going through my agent with 5% commissions. Took me about 2 months. Unless seller wants to hide big problems or need money urgently, no good offers from Opendoor or Zillow, I tried both
z. xia not sure about you. But Opendoor offered me the highest offer than any other realtors could offer. Soo bullish on this. It will be $100 pre merge
Incredibly intelligent and in depth analysi s. I appreciate this, you really show the pros with the fact that overall it may be a con. This was amazing.
It fixes them. That means contracting sheet rock, driveway pavers, tree trimming, carpentry, roofers and replacing heating systems with modern furnace. Great video
I have not invested in Opendoor as I couldn't see what they will be doing differently in comparison to their competitors. David done a good job in breaking down the finances. On that note, I maintain an open view for the future as if they convince me then I always re evaluate my position.
As someone who has flipped numerous houses, I can say I am not very positive on this business model being the next big thing. The acquisition cost required to make any kind of profit is extremely low. You can literally hire an agent and list your home on the market in whatever shape it is, sell it quickly and make more money. This type of service is for someone who just wan'ts out and doesn't want to deal with it. It will not cater to normal people who value the equity they have built. This will not be the way you sell your house in the future unless they pivot along the way. I will pass...
Yeah... how many people are so casual about selling their home that they won't take a little extra time to try to get the best deal for it? Getting an ASAP fast offer on your home seems (a) not that important to a large number of sellers and (b) not provided in a unique or superior way by Opendoor as compared to Zillow Offers and other services.
Great video! Another expense that was not covered is their plan to upgrade and remodel the homes they buy. This could be both a significant expense, as well as possibly a value add opportunity if they are able to do it efficiently. But that's a big if. Thoughts?
Great analysis. OPEN has been dropping while the rest of the market is rising in April. Was wondering what to do with my shares and your video helped a ton.
Dave, one thought I have you may or may not be looking at. Their 2% income is on a unit sold. What is their turn rate? If it’s one a year it’s not good, but if they are turning 12 units on the borrowed cash, they are crushing it.
Getting people to trust the sale of their house (a huge life decision) to an unproven product/selling process, instead of hiring a traditional agent, is a big ask. Also, their business is vulnerable to the ups and downs of the housing market.
Traditional agents add virtually zero value. They just list the house and skim a portion for their commission. This is a new age where people can see the homes for sale on a phone app. Agents don’t add exposure like they once did
A realtor here in Toronto and I thought about being "phased out" by tech for years now. However I realized a couple things. As a listing realtor, I provide extra value to my clients when I tell the story of the place I am selling. An app/virtual tour cannot do this. Stories sell, and I often get "sold over asking" due to multiple offers which covers much more than the commission fees that my clients are paying. As a buying realtor, I am extremely familiar with the area and the quality of houses in my area. I can tell my clients about the pedestrian laneway that leads to the park just 30 seconds behind the house, or how 90% of the houses built in the last 10 years are trash, and to look for bigger lots and 15-30 year homes with great layouts that can be renovated into something much more. A lot of times, clients will let their emotions get a hold of them when it comes to selling their own home. The same goes with buying and entering a multiple offer situation. I would think that an app would most likely disrupt new cookie cutter houses and condos... where you don't need to do a house inspection or really see the unit as long as you have the layout dimensions. However, for homes that are lived in and personalized by the prior owners, they definitely deserve a good agent. The fee is already worth it if you have 2 offers land on the same day. (Which is basically what happens to every decent property listed between 800k-1.2m in Toronto at the moment) And really, if a good agent has a good track record of selling overasking, that charges you 10k and can get you 20k-100k more than if you did it yourself... that's not a bad deal I'd say! Of course, there are exceptions, and I'm pretty sure there are people who have sold their homes by themselves and got what they think is a great result! I don't doubt this at all. I also understand a lot of the agent hate. The bar to the occupation is low, many agents don't actually know what they are doing (I still do not understand immigrants looking for immigrant agents who have just arrived in the country 2 years ago, they have not seen the areas of growth, nor can they properly educate their clients on good investments). Buuut about this. Just like what opendoor is doing at the moment. Disrupting SELLING of real estate is not that hard. But disrupting the BUY side is definitely a lot harder. It takes a lot more work on the buy side. For example: A seller isn't comfortable with letting any strangers in a house without a licenced agent. A licenced agent can be blamed for any missing items or property. A seller also does not know if the person that is viewing the house is dangerous or can rob them. Having an agent around gives peace of mind to both sides. What about the clients that want to view the house and does not have a ride? (tesla robotaxis pls) Usually the buying agent is the one that brings them to the showing. On the sell side, you just list it, do some open houses, and use your communication skills to bring the best money for your client. That's easy enough. On the buy side... You have to show properties, fight with competing offers, make sure financing is okay, you can view over 100 houses without a sale, buy them coffee/lunch, gas up (can't wait for my model Y). At this point, the realtor is making minimum wage.
to be honest i didnt read all that, but i just want to say that if the selling realtor gets a super good deal by storytelling, and the buying realtor also gets a super good deal by knowing the pitfalls, then we are back to square one and the only winners are the realtors. If opendoor can get my house sold at a very low cost to themselves and pass on those savings to the seller and buyer then the seller+buyer will be better off. It might not get me as much money as with a storytelling realtor who can oversell the house. But in that case, the buyer will pay for it. So it is in the buyer+seller's best interest to keep costs low while getting a fair deal. If opendoor promises that, while also getting the process over with quickly and painlessly, then it looks super compelling to me and probably many others.
That’s not true about their revenue. They included the value of the home in their sales, but they only make the difference after taking out price they bought the home for. So you have to subtract the cost of buying home from their “revenue”
In real estate market as firm the key is to get stocks on the shelf. Buyers don’t care which company they buy from but actual house they looking for. As a growing firm that is a good idea to get into and grow faster than the traditional way. 2019 been great Year for them and They will do we’ll continuously.
Dave, great prespectives, as always you add something to think about it. You ended perfectly with the invitation to Eric Wu. Waiting for that video. Regards from Portugal
The catch with this business model is if they give competitive offers they won't get a customer base. They will just be a low-ball wholessale buyer and that branding is hard to shake. If they give competitive offers they won't make money. They really need to find a way to make money other than the resale of these properties such as making a buyers platform to bring buyers and sellers together and bank on transaction fees.
@@cyclopsvision6370 they surely have greater access to capital than Opendoor though, right? I see this kinda like snapchat vs instagram. Just when u see someyhing cool, it gets outdone.
Open Door will have a serious problem with "customer loyalty" Although their customers may love the service Open Door provides, the number of houses a person sells in their lifetime is so small that it's hardly worth trying to value. Word of mouth recommendations might help this some, but just thinking about my circle of acquaintances, home sales are still a rare circumstance. Another problem for Open Door will be small scale competitors who undercut them just a little bit. They don't have any patented process that competitors are stymied by. There could easily be individual home flippers who use Open Door, skimming just a litte cream off the top of each transaction with very little work expended. If this were Shark Tank, I'd be a "no".
I have tried to use open door, they are good but I didn’t use it as their valuation of property is much lower than the regular on the ground realtors. Folks I know who have used open door use this as the last option only ..
@HeyDave, I love your analysis videos. Please do a similar analysis video for NIO and Lemonade. We would love to know your views on these companies. Thanks!
Great video! Thanks for your research! I would like to add something.....in other countries its not that easy to buy and sell houses like in the US. Therefore their product is quite limited to certain markets.
Very great, that you talk about something else than TSLA. Personally I just hold TSLA, I have no need to hear about it any more. So you understand, for TSLA holders, TSLA is kind of boring...
Small margins but... The real estate business is worth $2.7 trillion in 2018 or about 13 percent of GDP. By comparison, the US car industry is $545.4 billion - $327.1 billion was auto manufacturing and $218.3 billion was vehicle retail sales (2.7% to U.S. gross domestic). Real estate is the holy grail, perhaps the only industry that comes close is the insurance industry at 1.32 trillion. For this reason, tech companies want to enter the real estate and insurance markets.
During the CNBC interview, Chamath made a really persuasive point that millennials tend to everything online, I am also a strong believer that everything can be digitalized will be digitalized. So I think in the long run, the world needs a platform like this. However, IMHO, The Opendoor type of business does not feel very exciting, so probably will go very slow and maybe more suitable for existing large companies already got people's attention, say, Meituan from China.
Is this company like Carvana but for homes? I sold my car to Carvana, and it was the easiest and pain-free experience I have ever had with selling a car. Carvana offered me the most so I went with them. If OpenDoor can somehow replicate Carvana’s selling and buying experience, then I’m so. I do not own Carvana’s stock.
I Can’t help thinking this video will be biased considering your experience with BOX....They are not in a 10x industry, Dave you (and me) are spoiled by Tesla, every company cannot match Tesla and Elon and every disruption is not going to yield a 10x company....
True, but for individual investors, it's a zero-sum game. For every dollar you put into IPOB, that's a dollar you could have put in a potential 10x, so making the comparison is smart on an individual level.
blueskies Because there are many different ways to Invest and people have their own thoughts and targets... Imagine if everybody squeezes all their investment in the top .1% of the company you will only get bunch of overvalued stocks concentrated on few companies, 10x companies are guaranteed only in hindsight no matter how much assumptions you make and analysis you do. There is nothing wrong with finding 10x stocks that’s why we listen to Dave but some people may think putting all your their money in 10x company is not their whole investment objective you also need some solid stable companies...
@Dave Lee on Investing: as OPENDOOR has almost reached 8+ billion-dollar revenue which pulls their guidance per the presentation, do you think the company is on track to become profitable. Any insights on the current model guidance and services offered.
Dave, would you be able to revisit $OPEN with your thoughts? Seems like a great opportunity at under $5. They are competing with nobody anymore I don't think
If they can scale, they can leverage the closing network. The money isn’t made from flipping a home, it’s from being able to work with banks as partners or be their own title co or make fees within the transaction. I highly doubt Chamath would buy an online home flipper service in a low barrier to entry and crowded landscape. This play is all about scale and the opportunities not so immediately obvious where agents, insurance brokers, title people, appraisers, contractors, lawyers, 1800-dumptruck etc all get a slice of the pie. People are not thinking how this can 10x. It’s only a flipping service to the average investor. I see this not as an ibuyer online company but a company with similar potential to be vertically intergrated like that other company and make the few % in million dollar transactions during the closing. When they can transfer a portion of the closing network revenue into savings for the opendoor buyer and seller, thats when this starts to really look good. Here’s hoping they can execute... but the opportunity is there for sure.
Love your analysis Dave. I've uploaded an Opendoor stock analysis of my own and I believe Opendoor is now a 10x opportunity after a 70% selloff + Zillow exiting the business!
One more thing to add, Dave. Currently we have an extremely low interest rate environment. A large company with good credit/collateral can get as much financing as it wants nearly for free. But what happens to this business model when interest rates finally return to normal? It falls apart! They no longer get money "for free", they have to pay interest every month in proportion to the inventory they hold. If the company can't make money now, they certainly can't make money when interest rates are more normal.
Ive been adding Ehang heavily since its $22 price just a few weeks ago and yesterday it was $47. I see EH as first-mover position in the passenger drone business with an easy 10x future. Can you please give me your thoughts? I see buying EH now like buying Tesla when it was below $50. EH is just a few years old and is supposed to show profits this year.
They need 5-10x more inventory to attract a large user-base and would need adequate excess cash in the case there is a housing crash. If they can keep increasing their capital and number of focused markets while remaining profitable, this company can only go up.
tell me if i am wrong - Chamath pulled a ton, or all, of his investment money from a Virgin Atlantic space to fund this... who’s to say he does not do the same when he’s bored of OPEN.? and the Zillow competition - established player - is too much... i pass on this - or maybe swing it for short trades
1. Why are you analysing this? You bought ipob and asessing you want to hold or sell? Make it clear so that people understand why are spending time on this. 2. There are very limited companies with no competition 3. Every ceo or founder started from scratch, how do you assess aggresiveness or ambition? Of course he does not have a paypal to sell to make his credential looks great, but he grew the co to 4B sales from scratch 3. Your analysis was great, but it would be fabulous if you access the competitors. Who are the tonnes of competitors? Every industry has competitors, talking about e commerce, there are plenty, amzn back then also will fall into the same framework of your point by point analysis, does that mean bezos back then failed in your points? E commerce was also low margin and slowly he invested to get better margin, that with several yrs of lossess. 4. I think thats great idea to get the ceo to talk live to you, but why didnt u invite musk back then? Does that mean if he agree to come to the channel meaning he may not be as good as musk? I love your analysis all along, but no one size fits all. Ark back then anticipated tsla at those price that you laugh off and think may not be achievable but the price level now is the norm acceptable to investor if its 1500 pre split. You can never find another musk to create another co, if u do, he wont build an ibuyer RE. I just find you conflicting objective on the vids here. You wanted ipob a better target so that they can make u multiple fold like draftking coz u invested or u just wanted to follow chamath? Or you just want ceo to come to ur channel to help clear doubts so that your ipob became more appealing in prices? Even if ceo appear in ur vids, likely he is gonna say the thing 2 days ago in the investor presentation, what wld thay change? Ark have huge interest in Z, would that be a bad investment? I guess the price appreciation says it all. You need to know there is no another tesla who can create a product superior like this, software co is easily replicated but more important is how they execute and get market share, invest to get better margin. You will not know at this juncture, even musk has timeline issue, but that doesnt mean he didnt execute well. Opendoor may lag in actual vs 2023 forecast, but doesnt mean he is not executing?
Dave is ridiculously productive with these researched videos
Your videos are exceptionally good. I like your calm tone of voice and how well you simplify and explain things. Keep it up!
I sold a house with Redfin and saved a huge chunk on commission. I also bought a house using openlistings (I believe they were acquired by open door) and received a $10,000 commission refund. If I went with a traditional agent I would’ve been close to $20,000 poorer when combining both transactions. Whether it’s open door or another online brokerage, the traditional realtor model needs disruption
simply lowering price is not a disruption by definition. Just saying.
Edward Tse yes. There are other value adds as well. For example Redfins app tells you which schools a certain house is zoned to, along with ratings for those schools. It also tells searchers which homes are about to come on the market, google street view integration, and virtual tours. It saves a ton of time. Traditional brokerages can’t charge 6 percent commissions anymore because of these discount brokerages like open door and Redfin. That’s disruptive
Yes, and you also limited your market exposure by 90-95%...so you probably got less then you would've through traditional real estate. In the City I live in, we are seeing multiple offer situations commonly 40-80k over asking ...imagine leaving that on the table to save a few percentage points...
Genovacide I disagree, and I can’t take your comment seriously after seeing your “90-95%” number. My house was listed on the MLS just like any other brokerage. It stayed on the market for several weeks with two packed open houses. These people all saw the same MLS. By the way, I originally hired a traditional broker but his comps were not at all aligned with mine so I let him go. That’s where Redfin came in.
I love Dave's intro. Like we don't know it's already him, but he's still a gent and says hi to us. What a legend.
100% agree with all your observations. I work in the RE industry and I have a problem with them calling the sum of their sales “revenue”, it’s Sales Volume or Production. Also the brokerage I work for does about 2000 sales transactions a year, 1/10 what OD is listing (our average SP is high though). If our brokerage owner was offered $600M (1/10 OD’s $6B valuation) I’m fairly sure the keys would be handed over and they would run. I had some IPOB pre merger and sold it after seeing 4 listings in my city’s market and just a few in a CA market. For the number of sales they are listing they should have way more listings, or their Days on Market is in the single digits, or I did not pick the city where they have 90% of their listings. I think they should have 5,000+ listings to have 20k in annual sales. Another issue you did not touch on is that their margin is fixed. 6% is regulated, 3% each side. You can’t ever substantially grow your margin, only race to the bottom with other discounters. That valuation seems nuts.
This is definitely the most intelligent analysis of this company. Subscribed for more.
Dave are you all in on Tesla or what does your stock portfolio look like?
Any update if Eric Wu is going to come on your show? I’d love to hear the interview between you two!
I sold my home on Craigslist in 3 days. I actually spoke to the buyers, showed them all the plusses and minuses. The family that did buy the house actually knew exactly what they were buying. Something I didn't get with the realtor that sold me the home. In Colorado it was easy. Just needed to file a document with the state, and the title company did all the legal work. I do remember an agent telling me I couldn't sell my house without their help. Alluding to it being illlegal.
Really? I wonder what its like in California.
@@NukemFinance probably more work, but not impossible. I feel real-estate agents make the process look confusing to their benefit. Furthermore I enjoyed meeting the family that bought my house. I never met the people that I bought the house from.
youmakeitreal I’m sending the cops 🚓 to your house.
@@lijie6431 haha!! love it
@@deAndaJake yeah. The real-estate cops😱
One profit stream for over open door that you seem to have overlook was the concept of wholesaling real estate. There's very little cost involved when it comes to wholesaling houses.
I purchased shares a while ago. I think I might hold at least until the ticker symbol changes, that tends to get more news on the company and drive the stock price up. I'll do what I did with SPCE sell some as it goes up to cover some costs then hold onto some shares long term. But overall was a little bummed about this one I was hoping for a more innovative company. But I do think Chamath is a pretty smart guy so probably a good long term hold.
When Dave speaks.....I listen.
When you type no one cares
@@user-fx5sw4jy7hYz9Hzi well you care , because you replied lol
@@je187u I replied because I have no life. You idiots wasting time.
@@user-fx5sw4jy7hYz9Hzi I'm glad we get to have this conversation 😄. I'm not offended or angry at your comment. All good.
@@user-fx5sw4jy7hYz9Hzi dude it's okay, chill. it'll all be fine - you fit in, don't worry
Thanks Dave. Invaluable as you search for 10X companies. I think I've mentioned in passing in the past what I do and don't have the time or expertise to do the kind of research that you do. Your criteria for 10X companies gives me confidence that when you find one, I can look at it seriously. Thanks! Liked.
It would make sense if Opendoor or Zillow could amass home and owner data one day so useful as to recommend services related to the house (or refrigerator in need of food items or beers). You can only do this unless you buy the house first and install it with desired appliance or sensors. This is a very long game, not to mention expensive.
Seems quite intrusive don’t you think? But I digress, with the ubiquity of the “smart” everything I see more and more of the general public heading towards something of this nature; trading ones action on and offline for ease of use/convenience without thinking of the repercussions whether it be targeted adverts or even more malicious acts that prey on the layman. But hey let’s all trade our data so we can get items we didn’t think we wanted/needed but cannot live without.
Angelo Perez Sadly, like it or not, our privacy data will leak out like crazy. And people don’t mind trading data for convenience. Google already know when are you home if you use it’s thermostats. What they dint know is when do you need to buy beers or fix your roof. Fear not, it’s happening. Can Opendoor get there first? I dont know. With the ipo boost, they might.
All of Dave’s comments also applied to Tesla. That was what the bears were saying for years, especially in 2015.
Exactly 🤣 This video is incredibly short sighted. I'd have gone top down... market size and what needs to change to enable it. Opendoor are primed for this.
Focus of profit at this point isn't relevant. Be more focused on the type of people that are investing. If they get market share then everything else will follow.
Hi Dave, would like to hear update on this after the opendoor's Q3 earnings if possible, thanks!
I also would love to hear an update on OpenDoor
Nice to see somebody from the TSLA community talking about Chamath and his SPACs. I agree that I am not excited about the business. I am in IPOB at $10.13 so basically up 70%+. After watching the investor presentation, I decided to hold but I still have the same reservations that you do. At most, I might exercise the warrants which will increase my holdings by 33% at well below market price.
Alternatively, I might sell out and reallocate the position to IPOD which is rumored to be coming soon and hope for a better company that I can be excited about. I also am in IPOC already but don't wish to increase my position on such a speculative play.
Bought 10 shares of both IPOB and IPOC at 10.34. Gonna just hold forever as a backup emergency stock. If D coming out I’ll get it too. I have faith in Chamath.
Does Chamath have continued investment after setting up the SPAC, or is he done after getting his fees? Ie does he still have skin in the game with IPOB?
@@dsong401 yes he puts $100M of his own money into each merger.
As always. Love everything you do. I do think that your points on ads are great! But I do think ads do work. Not everyone can be Tesla. I was an MLO for years. (Banker) and I’ve seen everything you can think of. It’s a very complex and complicated world. (Hence the reason amazon thought of dropping in, then backed out) w that said, open doors ideas are super interesting to me! I think it’s potential is out of this world. And if ads is the way to get ppl on.... might be worth it. Now I say it’s potential is that strong. Only bc I know the process in and out. So many ppl I see countless times. Especially older ppl, whom have trouble contacting agents. Whom feel out of the loop. Not confident, etc. Their lack of the internet and communication is a flawless entry for open door. I also see them giving up bc of old age. They will sell the house just to “get it over with.” And they lose out. Open doors process would prevent this. I’d reconsider another evaluation once public.
watching this now because I'm actually an OPENDOOR customer selling a home to Opendoor in atlanta (currently in escrow) - i'm on the 2nd half of the transaction waiting for title company to finish their due diligence and then close in 2 weeks or so. I'm considering selling a second home in houston with opendoor. So far my initial impressions as a customer has been 9/10 - excellent thus far. online offer came within 5 mins! and final offer about 5 days afterwards. However as an investor I don't know how they are making money when their margins are so thin. the price i got was so good it's really within 95% of true market price which is amazing!
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
How was the final cost associated with the house selling? They talked about 5-8% on their website. I am looking into Opendoor as well. Would appreciate your input.
@@applelinux2002 final cost is 5% fee + typical closing costs which is 2-3% (that everyone pays in all real estate transactions)
@@applelinux2002 best strategy is pit zillo offers + opendoor and take the best offer. but I still liked opendoor so so so much better, less paperwork, less stress. zillow offers - so many requests, I will not work with them again. only use them to verify the price offer from opendoor
Thanks a lot for the information! How did they estimate the repair cost etc.? Wouldn’t they send an inspector to look at the house or solely based on video walkthrough. In any way, I will give it a try.
This was a really great analysis and so easy to understand....added a subscription to this channel.
Both buying and selling homes are complicated and stressful processes with many snags in-between. Most sellers and buyers need a hands-on real estate specialist (especially for first-timers) to walk them through what will most likely be the largest and most important purchase of their lifetime. I'm not a realtor, but I have both purchased and sold homes several times in two different states, so I say this from experience. I have a hard time seeing how this can replace a human who will be there to actually physically see things and advise their clients accordingly. Also, yes realtor fees are no joke, but keep in mind that they take on legal liability on every transaction they oversee.
you say competition, but opendoor owns that market right now by a lot.
yeah, and it's growing rapidly
With 0% interest rates home sales will skyrocket. Chamath always comes through. Someone told me that even if you are not a tech business eventually a tech company will do your business.
Yeah but tech can't answer ALL things! Certain aspects of some markets are hard to crack. I'd wait 6-12 months on this one. Margins are everything, And based on this excellent video I just don't see it. Proof of concept and scalability is so important!
hey dave, with the exit of zillow from ibuying, and OPEN fast tracking break even status, has your opinion on OPEN changed?
🤔 you talk up Zillow and Redfin as if they are better than Opendoor, but Opendoor has more revenue than both Zillow and Redfin combined.
true but you also have to look at margins
Anybody else not love this company but has infinite faith in Chamath?
Yeah, that’s the point.
And ARK Invest...
Superb analysis. It's like my friends who though getting a real estate license is their ticket to print money. Turns out real estate is a very cyclical tough business. I hear from real estate professionals who love to deal with agents from Internet companies such as Redfin because these agents don't have incentive to negotiate well for their clients.
Hi Dave, another great analysis. I would be concerned with being the 'owner' of all those properties in a downturn with no one to sell to/ be forced to sell at a price lower than expected. It boils down to how good their AI systems help with predicting prices accurately in difficult times.
Would you consider doing a video on SPACs in general?
So refreshing to have a video on money and investment without 20 referral links in the description
Great video, I would like to see a similar one with Lemonade.
Same
Ye same.
I have been buying below $50
I did try to analyse lemonade with all the teachings you gave Dave. It was helpful but I'm still a beginner :-). So I would indeed appreciate your analysis and thoughts. Thx.
samesame! :)
Chamath Palihapitiya and his team had to know the items you pointed out and yet they still decided on Opendoor. Are we missing something here??
I tried Opendoor before, their offer was really low, much worse than going through my agent with 5% commissions. Took me about 2 months. Unless seller wants to hide big problems or need money urgently, no good offers from Opendoor or Zillow, I tried both
z. xia not sure about you. But Opendoor offered me the highest offer than any other realtors could offer. Soo bullish on this. It will be $100 pre merge
Wouldn’t this be common sense since they would also have to make money lol
Good to know ! They're not in my market, But this breakdown makes me back off a little bit
Incredibly intelligent and in depth analysi s. I appreciate this, you really show the pros with the fact that overall it may be a con. This was amazing.
Can you share your list of 10X potential companies?
Good idea, if 9 out 10 companies fail, still make your money back in the future lol
It fixes them. That means contracting sheet rock, driveway pavers, tree trimming, carpentry, roofers and replacing heating systems with modern furnace. Great video
Did Eric ever get back to you? When’s the interview coming
Opendoor and zillow are the future. Real estate agents have been milking people for years.
I have not invested in Opendoor as I couldn't see what they will be doing differently in comparison to their competitors. David done a good job in breaking down the finances. On that note, I maintain an open view for the future as if they convince me then I always re evaluate my position.
As someone who has flipped numerous houses, I can say I am not very positive on this business model being the next big thing. The acquisition cost required to make any kind of profit is extremely low. You can literally hire an agent and list your home on the market in whatever shape it is, sell it quickly and make more money. This type of service is for someone who just wan'ts out and doesn't want to deal with it. It will not cater to normal people who value the equity they have built. This will not be the way you sell your house in the future unless they pivot along the way. I will pass...
Yeah... how many people are so casual about selling their home that they won't take a little extra time to try to get the best deal for it? Getting an ASAP fast offer on your home seems (a) not that important to a large number of sellers and (b) not provided in a unique or superior way by Opendoor as compared to Zillow Offers and other services.
Great video! Another expense that was not covered is their plan to upgrade and remodel the homes they buy. This could be both a significant expense, as well as possibly a value add opportunity if they are able to do it efficiently. But that's a big if. Thoughts?
Your interview with Mr. Wu would be amazing to watch.
I disagree. Would likely be a lot of marketing speech from Wu, not much frank discussion.
Rick, seeing as you personally know Eric... reach out and ask him to come on the show will you?
Great analysis. OPEN has been dropping while the rest of the market is rising in April. Was wondering what to do with my shares and your video helped a ton.
I really love Chamath but with $Work, $SPCE & now Opendoor i'm just not convinced in all three of these.
These are all recent ipos, have to look further down the road. I’m sure fb had nay sayers at first.
Reece Parkinson totally with you on SPCE
It's only been a year, dude. Give it time. Tesla was doing nothing for 8 years and look where they are now.
jc Kilo too bad there is this little unknown company named SpaceX.
Would be interested to know how their model works in a very heavily speculated property market like Hong Kong.
Dave, one thought I have you may or may not be looking at. Their 2% income is on a unit sold. What is their turn rate? If it’s one a year it’s not good, but if they are turning 12 units on the borrowed cash, they are crushing it.
Getting people to trust the sale of their house (a huge life decision) to an unproven product/selling process, instead of hiring a traditional agent, is a big ask. Also, their business is vulnerable to the ups and downs of the housing market.
Traditional agents add virtually zero value. They just list the house and skim a portion for their commission. This is a new age where people can see the homes for sale on a phone app. Agents don’t add exposure like they once did
@@joejesus9902 bingo, traditional agents are going to be phased out over the next couple decades with the rise of companies like Zillow and Opendoor
Dave ! Would you do your diligence and so the same thing as you did on open door with Chargepoint?
Great informative video Dave. Curious about your thoughts on SoFi
Very helpful analysis. Thanks for sharing how you think about evaluating a company.
Agree with your concerns as Opendoor is not kind tech companies i like as it carry substantial balance sheet exposure against real estate price.
Thank Dave I agree. More of a Box than a Tesla. Also saw Chamath got $70mil in fees, not sure if true, but that matters.
Thanks Dave! Really love the questions you ask!
Lots of hype on Open door....Helpful analysis .... Dave - can you please let me know what you think about Desktop Metal ?
A realtor here in Toronto and I thought about being "phased out" by tech for years now. However I realized a couple things.
As a listing realtor, I provide extra value to my clients when I tell the story of the place I am selling. An app/virtual tour cannot do this. Stories sell, and I often get "sold over asking" due to multiple offers which covers much more than the commission fees that my clients are paying.
As a buying realtor, I am extremely familiar with the area and the quality of houses in my area. I can tell my clients about the pedestrian laneway that leads to the park just 30 seconds behind the house, or how 90% of the houses built in the last 10 years are trash, and to look for bigger lots and 15-30 year homes with great layouts that can be renovated into something much more.
A lot of times, clients will let their emotions get a hold of them when it comes to selling their own home. The same goes with buying and entering a multiple offer situation.
I would think that an app would most likely disrupt new cookie cutter houses and condos... where you don't need to do a house inspection or really see the unit as long as you have the layout dimensions.
However, for homes that are lived in and personalized by the prior owners, they definitely deserve a good agent. The fee is already worth it if you have 2 offers land on the same day. (Which is basically what happens to every decent property listed between 800k-1.2m in Toronto at the moment)
And really, if a good agent has a good track record of selling overasking, that charges you 10k and can get you 20k-100k more than if you did it yourself... that's not a bad deal I'd say!
Of course, there are exceptions, and I'm pretty sure there are people who have sold their homes by themselves and got what they think is a great result! I don't doubt this at all. I also understand a lot of the agent hate. The bar to the occupation is low, many agents don't actually know what they are doing (I still do not understand immigrants looking for immigrant agents who have just arrived in the country 2 years ago, they have not seen the areas of growth, nor can they properly educate their clients on good investments).
Buuut about this. Just like what opendoor is doing at the moment. Disrupting SELLING of real estate is not that hard. But disrupting the BUY side is definitely a lot harder. It takes a lot more work on the buy side. For example: A seller isn't comfortable with letting any strangers in a house without a licenced agent. A licenced agent can be blamed for any missing items or property. A seller also does not know if the person that is viewing the house is dangerous or can rob them. Having an agent around gives peace of mind to both sides. What about the clients that want to view the house and does not have a ride? (tesla robotaxis pls) Usually the buying agent is the one that brings them to the showing.
On the sell side, you just list it, do some open houses, and use your communication skills to bring the best money for your client. That's easy enough.
On the buy side... You have to show properties, fight with competing offers, make sure financing is okay, you can view over 100 houses without a sale, buy them coffee/lunch, gas up (can't wait for my model Y). At this point, the realtor is making minimum wage.
to be honest i didnt read all that, but i just want to say that if the selling realtor gets a super good deal by storytelling, and the buying realtor also gets a super good deal by knowing the pitfalls, then we are back to square one and the only winners are the realtors. If opendoor can get my house sold at a very low cost to themselves and pass on those savings to the seller and buyer then the seller+buyer will be better off. It might not get me as much money as with a storytelling realtor who can oversell the house. But in that case, the buyer will pay for it. So it is in the buyer+seller's best interest to keep costs low while getting a fair deal. If opendoor promises that, while also getting the process over with quickly and painlessly, then it looks super compelling to me and probably many others.
Chemath must see the potential in this company that we don't see. Plus, Open door has revenes 4 times of their competitors!
That’s not true about their revenue. They included the value of the home in their sales, but they only make the difference after taking out price they bought the home for. So you have to subtract the cost of buying home from their “revenue”
@@TK-gd9td : no, revenue is revenue. There is no substract of costs when you calculate revenue.
In real estate market as firm the key is to get stocks on the shelf. Buyers don’t care which company they buy from but actual house they looking for. As a growing firm that is a good idea to get into and grow faster than the traditional way. 2019 been great Year for them and They will do we’ll continuously.
Dave, great prespectives, as always you add something to think about it. You ended perfectly with the invitation to Eric Wu. Waiting for that video. Regards from Portugal
Your one of the only channels I would give money to. Your content is great! Thank you!
The catch with this business model is if they give competitive offers they won't get a customer base. They will just be a low-ball wholessale buyer and that branding is hard to shake. If they give competitive offers they won't make money. They really need to find a way to make money other than the resale of these properties such as making a buyers platform to bring buyers and sellers together and bank on transaction fees.
Whats to stop Zillow from copying?
Not copying, they're already doing this exact same model. And I suspect they will win given their reach in the industry is already well established
absolutely nothing, other than a lack of capital to make instant offers
I think they already do.
@@cyclopsvision6370 they surely have greater access to capital than Opendoor though, right? I see this kinda like snapchat vs instagram. Just when u see someyhing cool, it gets outdone.
Open Door will have a serious problem with "customer loyalty" Although their customers may love the service Open Door provides, the number of houses a person sells in their lifetime is so small that it's hardly worth trying to value. Word of mouth recommendations might help this some, but just thinking about my circle of acquaintances, home sales are still a rare circumstance.
Another problem for Open Door will be small scale competitors who undercut them just a little bit. They don't have any patented process that competitors are stymied by. There could easily be individual home flippers who use Open Door, skimming just a litte cream off the top of each transaction with very little work expended.
If this were Shark Tank, I'd be a "no".
Hi I’m new to the channel, is Dave usually right with stock predictions? If so I will subscribe...
Not sure but seems to mainly focus on Tesla.
Hi Dave. Thanks for the insight. Can you please do a video on Lemonade?
Interesting assessment Dave. I do wonder why Kathy Wood and Blackrock are big investors in IPOB. They mush see BIG potential. Your thoughts?
Great content Dave! Love your channel.
I have tried to use open door, they are good but I didn’t use it as their valuation of property is much lower than the regular on the ground realtors. Folks I know who have used open door use this as the last option only ..
Wow. I’m a big fan of you so far. this is my first video I’ve seen
Redefining the real estate stack would be to resolve transfer ownership to minutes, tax implications, sales commissions @1%.
@HeyDave, I love your analysis videos. Please do a similar analysis video for NIO and Lemonade. We would love to know your views on these companies. Thanks!
Great video! Thanks for your research! I would like to add something.....in other countries its not that easy to buy and sell houses like in the US. Therefore their product is quite limited to certain markets.
Very great, that you talk about something else than TSLA. Personally I just hold TSLA, I have no need to hear about it any more. So you understand, for TSLA holders, TSLA is kind of boring...
Small margins but... The real estate business is worth $2.7 trillion in 2018 or about 13 percent of GDP. By comparison, the US car industry is $545.4 billion - $327.1 billion was auto manufacturing and $218.3 billion was vehicle retail sales (2.7% to U.S. gross domestic).
Real estate is the holy grail, perhaps the only industry that comes close is the insurance industry at 1.32 trillion. For this reason, tech companies want to enter the real estate and insurance markets.
Can u do an update video
During the CNBC interview, Chamath made a really persuasive point that millennials tend to everything online, I am also a strong believer that everything can be digitalized will be digitalized. So I think in the long run, the world needs a platform like this. However, IMHO, The Opendoor type of business does not feel very exciting, so probably will go very slow and maybe more suitable for existing large companies already got people's attention, say, Meituan from China.
Is this company like Carvana but for homes? I sold my car to Carvana, and it was the easiest and pain-free experience I have ever had with selling a car. Carvana offered me the most so I went with them. If OpenDoor can somehow replicate Carvana’s selling and buying experience, then I’m so. I do not own Carvana’s stock.
I Can’t help thinking this video will be biased considering your experience with BOX....They are not in a 10x industry, Dave you (and me) are spoiled by Tesla, every company cannot match Tesla and Elon and every disruption is not going to yield a 10x company....
True, but for individual investors, it's a zero-sum game. For every dollar you put into IPOB, that's a dollar you could have put in a potential 10x, so making the comparison is smart on an individual level.
Agreed. I don’t think industry is the issue though. I just don’t think their disruption/innovation is on par with Tesla.
Tesla , Apple, Amazon are 1000x companies.
blueskies
Because there are many different ways to
Invest and people have their own thoughts and targets... Imagine if everybody squeezes all their investment in the top .1% of the company you will only get bunch of overvalued stocks concentrated on few companies, 10x companies are guaranteed only in hindsight no matter how much assumptions you make and analysis you do. There is nothing wrong with finding 10x stocks that’s why we listen to Dave but some people may think putting all your their money in 10x company is not their whole investment objective you also need some solid stable companies...
Hi Dave I have a couple options expiring this week with open do you think it will uptrend by the 16th👀
After you buy
Goddamn this was GREAT, thank you Dave!!!;)
@Dave Lee on Investing: as OPENDOOR has almost reached 8+ billion-dollar revenue which pulls their guidance per the presentation, do you think the company is on track to become profitable. Any insights on the current model guidance and services offered.
Dave, would you be able to revisit $OPEN with your thoughts? Seems like a great opportunity at under $5. They are competing with nobody anymore I don't think
Bagholder reporting for duty!
Yes! That interview would be great!
If they can scale, they can leverage the closing network. The money isn’t made from flipping a home, it’s from being able to work with banks as partners or be their own title co or make fees within the transaction. I highly doubt Chamath would buy an online home flipper service in a low barrier to entry and crowded landscape. This play is all about scale and the opportunities not so immediately obvious where agents, insurance brokers, title people, appraisers, contractors, lawyers, 1800-dumptruck etc all get a slice of the pie. People are not thinking how this can 10x. It’s only a flipping service to the average investor. I see this not as an ibuyer online company but a company with similar potential to be vertically intergrated like that other company and make the few % in million dollar transactions during the closing. When they can transfer a portion of the closing network revenue into savings for the opendoor buyer and seller, thats when this starts to really look good. Here’s hoping they can execute... but the opportunity is there for sure.
I choose Zillow over Opendoor.
What’s the difference between the two companies?
I love zillow :P
Loaded up today average price $17.80
good stuff, enjoyed the break-down of your research and summary analysis....
Love your analysis Dave. I've uploaded an Opendoor stock analysis of my own and I believe Opendoor is now a 10x opportunity after a 70% selloff + Zillow exiting the business!
Hi Dave, Please share your thoughts on SNOW stock. Thanks and good luck w/ your channel.
One more thing to add, Dave. Currently we have an extremely low interest rate environment. A large company with good credit/collateral can get as much financing as it wants nearly for free. But what happens to this business model when interest rates finally return to normal? It falls apart! They no longer get money "for free", they have to pay interest every month in proportion to the inventory they hold. If the company can't make money now, they certainly can't make money when interest rates are more normal.
By that point... they will have added to their 1bn cash flow and it won't matter.
Always quality analysis
Ive been adding Ehang heavily since its $22 price just a few weeks ago and yesterday it was $47. I see EH as first-mover position in the passenger drone business with an easy 10x future. Can you please give me your thoughts? I see buying EH now like buying Tesla when it was below
$50. EH is just a few years old and is supposed to show profits this year.
They need 5-10x more inventory to attract a large user-base and would need adequate excess cash in the case there is a housing crash. If they can keep increasing their capital and number of focused markets while remaining profitable, this company can only go up.
Great analysis as always. Love the non Tesla stuff
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and analysis!
Very helpful analysis. Thanks for sharing your research.
Do a vid on IPOE
Would be grateful if you had a look at Chamath’s spac IpoE,.. Sofi would complement your SQ analysis?
tell me if i am wrong - Chamath pulled a ton, or all, of his investment money from a Virgin Atlantic space to fund this... who’s to say he does not do the same when he’s bored of OPEN.?
and the Zillow competition - established player - is too much... i pass on this - or maybe swing it for short trades
1. Why are you analysing this? You bought ipob and asessing you want to hold or sell? Make it clear so that people understand why are spending time on this.
2. There are very limited companies with no competition
3. Every ceo or founder started from scratch, how do you assess aggresiveness or ambition? Of course he does not have a paypal to sell to make his credential looks great, but he grew the co to 4B sales from scratch
3. Your analysis was great, but it would be fabulous if you access the competitors. Who are the tonnes of competitors? Every industry has competitors, talking about e commerce, there are plenty, amzn back then also will fall into the same framework of your point by point analysis, does that mean bezos back then failed in your points? E commerce was also low margin and slowly he invested to get better margin, that with several yrs of lossess.
4. I think thats great idea to get the ceo to talk live to you, but why didnt u invite musk back then? Does that mean if he agree to come to the channel meaning he may not be as good as musk?
I love your analysis all along, but no one size fits all. Ark back then anticipated tsla at those price that you laugh off and think may not be achievable but the price level now is the norm acceptable to investor if its 1500 pre split. You can never find another musk to create another co, if u do, he wont build an ibuyer RE. I just find you conflicting objective on the vids here. You wanted ipob a better target so that they can make u multiple fold like draftking coz u invested or u just wanted to follow chamath? Or you just want ceo to come to ur channel to help clear doubts so that your ipob became more appealing in prices? Even if ceo appear in ur vids, likely he is gonna say the thing 2 days ago in the investor presentation, what wld thay change? Ark have huge interest in Z, would that be a bad investment? I guess the price appreciation says it all.
You need to know there is no another tesla who can create a product superior like this, software co is easily replicated but more important is how they execute and get market share, invest to get better margin. You will not know at this juncture, even musk has timeline issue, but that doesnt mean he didnt execute well. Opendoor may lag in actual vs 2023 forecast, but doesnt mean he is not executing?