Florida Housing Bubble is on the Verge of Collapse. Why these numbers indicate a 2008 event.
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- Опубликовано: 15 июл 2024
- Florida Housing Bubble is on the Verge of Collapse. When reviewing historical data over the last 5 years there's an eerie similarity to the 2008 crash. The question is, are we really in a real estate bubble? I review the data, the market indicators and why the high Florida real estate prices prices may be the new normal. Many think we are in a housing bubble, but there are other factors driving up home prices in Florida.
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Lisa Ammons
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Prices are in fact dropping in FL. Listings are increasing. From list to sell is taking longer. Home insurance is completely stupid. Quotes on a 600K house are 20K per year. PLUS Flood Insurance. No kidding. The market will implode by next year. 100%. It's completely unsustainable in it's current form. I believe we the market is systematically being ruined by forces greater than most can understand.
Ah... you and I ARE on the same page. You will own NOTHING.... it is part of the great reset.
My parents paid 15k property tax in MI for a 500k canal home 10 years ago. Our city majorly invested in a water treatment plant - you can’t catch up municipal standards long ignored without revenue at today’s cost. Raises for public servants need to be the last cause of tax increases, there’s fat to be trimmed if leaders would just do so. The insurance debacle is partly the same scenario- deferred work now needing immediate attention. It’s awful but not just one issue.
@@TheRealLivingWithLisa Correct. The NWO is real. The WEF is real. The great reset is happening, in REAL-TIME. It's no longer in beta. They are fully operational. Look at US, Brazil, England and France. ALL stolen... Everything that is happening in the world, is not some haphazard situation. None of this is by accident. There is no such thing, as these many coincidences happening ALL AT ONCE. Humanity is under attack. We are ALL under attack. The real estate situation is just one facet. That Champlain Towers collapse, was an additional catalyst for an engineered, economic collapse of the Florida real estate condo market. The latest assessments are killing that market in addition to high taxes and ridiculous insurance premiums. It's the perfect storm. And this will come for other states, too. It's all by design. Too many anomalies to foolishly think otherwise. And we are alive to witness it happening in our lifetime. Sadly, too many "normies" will label anyone who talks about this as crazy, or a conspiracy theorist. Its a conspiracy alright, but it's no theory. The corrupt - see eye aye - media has done a GREAT job in manipulating the herd. God help us all and God Bless.
@@TheRealLivingWithLisa RUclips censored my reply to you. Unreal.
$20,000/yr?! Is that on the beach in Miami, and who gave the quote, Lloyds of London? I have seen quotes from reputable insurers around $4,000 with a reasonable deductible on a $400,000 home in a good neighborhood.
I recently sold my home in Sarasota after living there for 43 years. The influx of people moving to Sarasota County leads me to believe that home prices probably won't drop that much there. As you stated, Florida is a premiere destination, and there's still a lot of folks who can move to Florida and pay cash for a home. Also, there are no starter homes being built anymore, at least not in Sarasota. Any new home is at least $350,000 and up, and in Sarasota, more like $450,000 and up. -- The problem lies with the wages, and how many workers can afford to live in Florida with those prices?
Thus all of the apartments being built
If the government was not propping everything up with credit everything would collapse in a heartbeat.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than $600k within just a year, and I've entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I think high insurance costs, more frequent / intense hurricanes and temperatures that are increasing might make this less of a destination in the future than people think. Time will tell, however, my money is on a big move down within 2 to 5 years.
whoever is elected on November 5 might be the person to change the numbers going down slightly but Florida is a destination for many so I’m not sure what kind of impact the next president can have
In my experience, real estate declines with a contraction in the jobs market. The 2007 and 2008 financial crisis was provoked by financial firms making risky loans to practically everyone since they would sell the mortgage to banks. If we see an economic contraction taking root, prices will contract. With the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer, the only effect will be a slow down in the economy-cars, sales of homes, appliances, commissions etc.
2 thumbs up. one for great information and 2 for being easy on the eyes!
Love the video 👏🏻
Prices are not dropping yet in Florida, home builders still list them high, the norm is around 600@ to 700K. The only homes that I see are dropping in price are the ones that were purchased and re-listed for almost double to make bank. Look at the history of price the home you interested in was listed for and how much it was bought before. However, home builders they still think it is 2021 and once they sell a house they raise the price. A house that usually cost around 450 is in the 7 hundreds
I’ll be going to Florida in the next couple of years, hopefully!!!
Nice video Lisa, I don’t think housing prices are coming down anytime soon.
Probably not... I think 2025 maybe.
Florida is not Hawaii, the prices will go down.
No oprah to buy up all the land
I dont think many are under water as many put down $50k to $200k. And houses ran up $200k so it would take alot to put buyers pre 2021 under water
It’s not just the housing costs going up in PSL, it’s the outrageous insurance premiums and the property taxes. Plus the HOA situation I have put my plans on hold. It’s just so unaffordable now. I want to live in paradise but it’s getting less likely now.
All valid points for many people....
I just don’t see Florida sustaining high home prices, without a sharp increases in wages. California, and here in Taxachusetts, the home prices are high but the wages are high too. I can’t speak to wages in Hawaii, but Hawaii also seems to be in a unique situation, tropical islands, with their own unique appeal, quite difficult to compare to mainland USA, to me anyway.
Well I hope you're right. But there are many from the north changing the population. People with more disposable income are the ones driving up prices, if that does not stop, then prices will continue to be high.
@@TheRealLivingWithLisabah! Yankee go home! 😂
@@TheRealLivingWithLisa Like me coming from NJ. Not complete paradise in FL but I just can't see retiring in NJ. NJ is still going up due to people moving from NYC/LI which will last another 5 years or so.
Until they don't eg they using stonks as cash leverage it's not actually cash.
We sold our home in South Florida and we were paying $800 a year for Property tax, but we bought in the early 80’s and we sold 2017 and made a fortune,but in S Fl property taxes are high for buyers. So we moved to a safer N C Fl. Paid cash and with H ex, our property Taxes are $2,500 a year, and the house we paid cash for has Doubled to tad over $400 K….we r both retired now in our early 70’s.
Most of us weren’t born then so you see how out of touch your experience is?
Lisa, how much of a problem in the Treasure Coast area is it with corporations buying up homes? Is this also contributing to driving up prices as well? Thanks for your video. Enjoy your content. ❤
I don't have concrete numbers for institutional "single family" purchases, however, we DO have a substantial amount of investors putting up apartments everywhere.
I think the best that can happen as far as home prices are concerned is that they level off. But I don't believe we will see any big decline if at all. Demand is high and supply is limited is the old economic addage. Thank you Lisa. I really enjoy your presentations. Well done and very informative.
Thank you so much for your kind comments..... I've got an interesting video next week... stay tuned.
😱🤑😱🤑
Morg Interest rate 🤗
must come down
I am a retiree from New York currently renting in the Tradition area and I am biding my time to see which way the pendulum is going to swing may be renting is going to be the way for me not sure I have to ride the wave
I get it.... I think waiting until 2025 is wise.
I just think that Florida is on borrowed time. Get hit with several cat 4-5 in one year. Insurance will be 25k plus plus plus. They'll run like the dickens for the exit doors. I do not think Rocky will enjoy living here much witnessing the beauty of coral blue roofs as far as the eye can see for years. Maybe the tarpaulin companies can produce other designer colors, just for Florida, instead of blue, brown and green.
Desantis ruined Florida.
California has a totally different economy than Florida. Many jobs there require college degrees as well as advanced degrees. Corporations are all over the place out there because the population is filled with engineers and scientists. Florida is an economy based on service jobs that require just a high school degree. I am not putting these jobs down in anyway. The simple fact is that these two economies are going to vastly different pay scales.
Prices may dip, but they won't drop back to the earlier years price levels.
Hi LIsa, You give persuasive arguments for home prices to stay up. The Fed printed 7 trillion during the covid scam of 2021. PPP (paycheck protection program) loans went into Florida real estate vs their businesses, which the program was set up for.Hence the spike in buying in Florida. One out of 4 homes purchased are owned by investors and speculators. That amounts to 25 million homes. Interest rates were 3% in 2021, now they are 7% plus. Florida still relies on tourism and citrus. Florida is not immune to the effects of a business contraction. Builders are still wildly building in Florida. It takes 5 years for the housing market to correct, we are in year 1. If Florida can bring down insurance costs, property taxes and the fee's then retirees' would be more confident in making Florida a retirement destination. I love your channel and like most people just watching to see how the Florida market develops over the summer and fall. Good luck!
The fact that with few exceptions, it’s in migration of retirees and exodus from other states of cash buyers who have already owned a house and that has changed overnight.
Florida has a hot and humid climate, not warm 😂. Not easy to live here in summer months. It’s only getting hotter every year. Also a big climate risk area
I'm hoping to find my retirement home in a couple years, but being stuck up here in Detroit until I can draw my pension? NONE of this is good news for me.😢 Love the content though Lisa! *fingers crossed for FMB or PCB come 2028*
I know someone who just got a $15,000 insurance bill and they are trying to sell like everyone else and it's an average house and near your neck of the woods. 2025 they are saying will increase double digits again. The market is flooded with inventory and I'm seeing foreclosures around Florida. State free income tax isn't helping with the Taxes, Insurance, and HOAs. Builders were just downgraded too because of Florida housing woes. A few spots in Florida builders have gotten up and left some unfinished neighborhoods of homes. Yeah, it's crazy Lisa but Florida has always been a Boom/Bust State. Definitely Cyclical.
Unless you pay cash and self insure your not going to be Abe to afford to live in Florida
Rates will go up prices will go down
Lisa, to quote you, " My Crystal ball is broke". I don't see the gains of the last 3 years substantial. I feel market in certain Countys starting to flatten out, and starting to pull back. Some areas will be more than others. I do not think this is 2008 part 2, but I also don't feel that prices will go up another 30% in 2 years. We are starting to see the movement to only 2 types of people in America. Those who have money, and those who don't. The next group of Boomers retireing 59-64 don't have the net worth of early, mid Boomers. See what happens, but one thing for sure. It's going to be an interesting 5 months.
You ain't lying about the next 5 months. Thanks for your thoughts~~~~
Inventory up (alot) & the pool of buyers gets smaller with every property tax, HOA, & insurance increase. Even cash buyers who can easily afford the new FL prices don't want to feel like they're getting ripped off and are on the sidelines. Prices will come down IMHO. It's already happening in SW FL. First the realtors claimed this was hurricane related and confined to LEE & Charlotte. Now homeowners are running for the exits from Naples all the way up through Tampa.
All good points. Insurance is a real problem... if this continues prices may fall. I have neighborhoods with super high HOA's ( equity golf clubs) Home prices are much lower because the monthly nut is obscene.... this could be the scenario in Florida.
@@TheRealLivingWithLisa For the past year realtors were saying Sarasota County prices won't go down. Then they started going down. Another claim: Tampa's bulletproof. Now not so much. I see a pattern developing. Luxury sales are inflating the #s. 2000 sq ft pool homes are down $75K in one year.
For those factoring in the baby boomers going here to retire, remember, the last of the boomers will be retiring in the next couple years and the following cohorts of retirees are much smaller, and many of those retirees are less healthy due to party hard life styles, so relying on retirees for economic growth is likely not sustainable?
Prices will go down because of the homeowners and auto insurance. There is only so much money in people ability to pay each month and insurance cost eat up a bunch of that. Morgan and Morgan ads telling the general public that the need a lawyer for most insurance claims don't help either. My insurance costs are double for my home in Florida for auto and homeowner vs MA. This means that I could pay Mass state income tax on an income of over 100k before income tax free Florida becomes cheaper. The high school in my Florida town is ranked #8040 nationally and the high school in my Ma town is ranked #4555 Nationally. I pay about the same in property taxes in both states. So you get what you pay for. Florida can not compete generating an educated work force. No state income tax and the homestead exemption really hurts the state's ability to educate it's work force. If you want a good education for your kids you have got to go private in Florida and pay or find those cites that have a high property tax that funds the schools.
I’m from California and it’s way more beautiful than Florida and there’s way more to do, but you need to consider that the wages in California commensurate with the cost of living Florida
Wages are a valid point~~
Yes, moving up and its awful, I know i live in Tradition, and bring their awful ways. Are you hiring RE agents?
Ah.... I feel ya.
Spam build until it crashes then if they keep it vacant put in huge vacancy taxes until they rent them out or go bankrupt
When the real state of the housing market bubble explodes > the only explosion of the bubble will be the reality of the biggest and largest growing community second to none > and none other than homelessness 😮
😢
Yup ... headed your way dear ... pocito a poco ... 😂
#ScottWalters#OrlandoMiner#Travis@#RealEstateMindset#MelodyWright#SachsRealty#ChristinaSmallhorn have been sounding the alarms for ever abd folks said they didn’t know anything about real estate l!!!!
House prices still rise in Miami and Fort Lauderdale
Yep... numbers for "May" 2024 were rising.
@@TheRealLivingWithLisa Palm Beach county is selling well. Very little land left and people wanting the heat. I see a slow decline over the next 10 years. But SW Florida will drop more due to low elevations and hurricanes.
!!
👏👏🇺🇸👏👏
They have to come down to earth, Florida ,sucks!
watching this from my My fully furnitured 1 bedroom condo with ablcony , gym and pool and open roof work area that cost about 290 $ month with 1 year rent contract + around 40-45 $ in electric and water and its so safe here that u can go out 24/7 and shop or just walk and eat in this 14 million people city..
😁
I keep looking at manufactured homes in your area, (Spanish Lakes etc, ) and even those, have gone crazy in price, sure, there a few bargans to be found, and I still may move south. but 100K plus for a place built in 1981?? Insane,,,plus lot rent??..
I get it.... even the manufactured homes are off the chain!
Increase prop taxes a huge amount and see how much people will buy like 3x-10x the prop taxes progressively depending on how big it is per citizen illegals are not accepted for tax exemption.
1500 for a couple to be exempt and 500 for 1 person. So 1 person can live tax free with 500 sqft. While rich mofo can pay 10x more for living in 3000 sqft by himself
Remember Desantis is our governor and this state has the highest inflation
The Entire Nation has the "Highest Inflation"
@@jayp4114 actually its Florida
Coastal frontage isn't going down in Florida, may level off a bit but not down. Non coastal depends on area...and sure, some could go down a bit but they aren't returning to prices of yore. When Democrats devalued the dollar by printing billions and giving it away, that was permanent damage. Cars, Food, housing are never going back down. Florida high rise condos are a special story in themselves and unrelated to the overall market.
All great points~~~~
Boomer delusion, love it
I think realtors and builders are greedy and are a huge part of the problem
Look at the housing from 2006-2008. Pilk Co. Homes were being built starting from the $120s. About every 6 months that price went up $20k. By 2008, new homes were starting from the 200s. I bought my home in 2008. An older home for $220, it is now valued at $500k. I DO NOT live in a 500,000 dollar home or in a 500,000 dollar neighborhood
And the sad part is unless you're homesteaded those property taxes will kill you.
Hence why you dispute your tax bill
Hello from Massachusetts and it seems like every day a new house pops up for sale but it's always the house that looks like Jack built. You know pipes flow up hill ,needs a roof, septic system,and has 1972 kitchen. I feel for the young folks because this is their time to be enjoying a nice new house. I think all of this is caused by one man in Washington by the name of Joe.
Wow no filter ❤ let’s pray for a change in November to go back to a better economy and many more things else
This channel is ALWAYS no filter... make sure to subscribe ...
@@TheRealLivingWithLisa done already !!