Exhaustion, Politics & The War in Ukraine - Public Support, Allied Endurance & the War in 2024

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  • Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
  • It's increasingly understood that the war in Ukraine is likely to be a long and hard one - and in that kind of attrition based struggle, resources and political will can matter as much as battlefield victories or defeats.
    Today I cover the topic of war exhaustion, asking not whether each side has the physical resources to continue, but instead what the data says about the willingness of voters and leaders in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine's allies to stay the course and push on despite the costs of war - and what it may mean for the war in 2024.
    Patreon:
    / perunau
    Relevant Reading:
    Ukraine population pyramid - World Population Review
    worldpopulationreview.com/cou...
    Putin saying Ukraine would last a week without support
    www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1....
    Russian polling on the war
    carnegieendowment.org/2023/11...
    US opinion polling on Russia
    news.gallup.com/poll/1642/rus...
    The Russia Today article on Zelensky's popularity
    www.rt.com/russia/585911-ukra...
    Ukrainian attitudes towards the war:
    kyivindependent.com/survey-95...
    www.ponarseurasia.org/victory...
    news.gallup.com/poll/512258/u...
    Analysis and reporting on Russian 2024 Budget:
    carnegieendowment.org/politik...
    www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
    Featured Daily Mail Article on UK support
    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...
    Reporting on Russian use of prisoners for military purposes:
    www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6...
    www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
    www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
    www.rferl.org/a/russia-drafti...
    US Poling on Russia
    www.pewresearch.org/global/20....
    Poling on US war in Afghanistan
    edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS...
    www.cbsnews.com/news/publics-...
    news.gallup.com/poll/115270/a...
    Polling on US war in Iraq - 2006
    news.gallup.com/poll/23374/am...
    Polling on the US war in Iraq - 0082
    www.pewresearch.org/2008/03/1...
    US poling on Ukraine:
    www.pewresearch.org/politics/...
    www.pbs.org/newshour/politics...
    news.gallup.com/poll/513680/a...
    The US affirming "As long as it takes":
    www.ft.com/content/ebe3fb32-e...
    Reporting on Ukraine's 'will not back down' stance
    www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1...
    Stoltenberg on the need to prepare for a long war
    www.theguardian.com/world/202...
    Bloomberg on mobilisation changes in UA
    www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
    Article source for Avdiivka image
    kyivindependent.com/ukraine-w...
    Corrections & Caveats:
    All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video. This video is intended for entertainment purposes and should not be relied on as the basis for commercial or other decisions.
    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 - Opening Words
    00:01:18 - What Am I Talking About?
    00:02:04 - War Exhaustion
    00:13:51 - Impacts And Drivers
    00:16:14 - Exhaustion As Strategy In Ukraine
    00:20:07 - Ukraine
    00:30:53 - Russia
    00:41:23 - The United States
    00:53:31 - The European Union
    00:58:57 - The UK
    01:02:01 - What Does This Mean?
    01:03:27 - Conclusion
    01:04:47 - Channel Update

Комментарии • 3,4 тыс.

  • @PerunAU
    @PerunAU  6 месяцев назад +387

    Warning that the sound quality might be a bit spotty this week as I was back to recording in some very sub-optimal environments.
    Also, final warning to anyone that wanted to submit a question for the Q&A episode - I'll be compiling the final list in the next few days so I can start recording the episode.

    • @braydoxastora5584
      @braydoxastora5584 6 месяцев назад +4

      ayyyyyyyyy its our boiii.
      you have good sunday nap. as i wont be sleeping tonight whoooo

    • @mercenarygundam1487
      @mercenarygundam1487 6 месяцев назад +2

      Here's my question in case you didn't get it.
      Have you played Command and Conquer Red Alert 2? Because there are some eerie parallels to what's going on in Ukraine right now. I just hope the Ukrainian Forces can push back the attackers soon.

    • @gitgut4977
      @gitgut4977 6 месяцев назад +1

      @Perun What do you think about the Joint Ventures between Ukroboronprom and western Industry? What do you think about the Products they want to produce like Lynx and Fuchs?

    • @LddStyx
      @LddStyx 6 месяцев назад +1

      I think you might have forgotten to pin this comment

    • @Syndr1
      @Syndr1 6 месяцев назад +1

      Hi Perun, I'm still sure that Ukrain is keeping Taiwan safe in an abstract sort of way. 😏

  • @erasmus_locke
    @erasmus_locke 6 месяцев назад +2126

    "America doesn't lose wars, it loses interest."
    That's a surprisingly accurate statement.

    • @ftk2589
      @ftk2589 6 месяцев назад +1

      No, pierde guerras. Deja de venderte historias de una America imbatible, ya demostraron que en lo único que brillan es en lo económico. A ver cuanto tiempo les dura de andar imprimiendo dólares.

    • @TheLucanicLord
      @TheLucanicLord 6 месяцев назад +72

      Perun is the Mark Twain of military strategy.
      Patrick Boyle is the Oscar Wide of finance.

    • @dannyzero692
      @dannyzero692 6 месяцев назад +23

      and when there's no interest, there's no war.

    • @chadbernard2641
      @chadbernard2641 6 месяцев назад +2

      That is a lie the west believes. More accurate would be "America starts wars, then runs away when they see they can't win"

    • @chadbernard2641
      @chadbernard2641 6 месяцев назад +64

      @@TheLucanicLord Don't insult Mark Twain. Perun is just like CNN, MSNBC just on RUclips.

  • @peterhagen7258
    @peterhagen7258 6 месяцев назад +118

    One communication problem we have in the U.S. is that aid for Ukraine is almost always expressed as a package of $xxx Million in the headline, sometimes with a few of the major items being sent listed in tehe fine print. But rarely is it expressed that older inventory is being selected and is being replenished from U.S. manufacturers, or that the items would have to be removed from inventory and either refurbished or disposed of - and still need to be replaced. People are thinking that bushel baskets of greenbacks are being shipped out for Kiev to spend wherever they need/want. not all people are going to think that but I'm betting those who do are making the most noise about it.
    I didn't hear any cheering that we saved a bunch by sending over 27-year-old ATACMS for utilization.

    • @VandroiyIII
      @VandroiyIII 6 месяцев назад

      The misleading figures seem designed to make the donors look more generous and powerful.
      Typical politics; in deceiving one group, they also deceived another, but in an unintended way. It's almost as if a culture of dishonesty comes at a cost...

    • @MHalblaub
      @MHalblaub 6 месяцев назад

      Germany send about 2,500 Strela missiles to Ukraine inherited through GDR. These missiles were stored in a biological security facility because the wooden boxes were rotten. Nothing more than toxic waste for Germany. It was far cheaper for Germany to send them to Ukraine than to dispose them according to German law.

    • @imjashingyou3461
      @imjashingyou3461 6 месяцев назад

      I have been wondering what the issue with the Biden Admins reluctance to accurately portray this to the US public.
      The best i can see is that either they are horrible at public messaging, or they are trying to keep the dollar amounts high so other allies commit in competition.

    • @Dralchemy
      @Dralchemy 6 месяцев назад +1

      wouldn't the US still need industry to be able to replace their inventory? how quickly could the US replenish those ATACMS missiles?

    • @imjashingyou3461
      @imjashingyou3461 6 месяцев назад +5

      @@Dralchemy those atacms missiles were nearly unusable already. They would have had to have been replaced in the short term. And yes we have the ability. Its called the PrSM missile system.

  • @michaelthayer5351
    @michaelthayer5351 6 месяцев назад +347

    With regards to substitution in the US Civil War, it wasn't just the Confederacy that had it, the Union also had the option of finding a substitute if your number came up in the draft.
    We also have records of men taking out ads in newspapers offering themselves as substitutes essentially to the highest bidder. There was also an endemic problem of substitutes claiming their fee, reporting for muster, getting all the free food, lodging, and pay they could and then deserting the night before a regiment marched out, and then the next day offering themselves as a substitute again under a new name which is probably why substitution wasn't available in the World Wars, instead it was the standard bribery of draft board officials or officers to see you declared "ineligible" or at the very least kept on garrison duty stateside.

    • @smokedbeefandcheese4144
      @smokedbeefandcheese4144 6 месяцев назад +13

      To be fair war is mostly carried out for rich people so I think it’s unethical for us to have to fight it. The best thing you can say about Ukraine is that a good number of the rich people are actually on the field or at least the middle class. And upper middle class. That is where they belong. All of the poor people should get to leave. And all of the rich people should get to stay and protect the property they own. If you don’t have enough to where you feel like dying for it you should get to leave. And if they don’t have enough people to fight well that’s just tough shit they should’ve given people enough shit to want to fight over in the first place.

    • @user-nh5mq6kc9v
      @user-nh5mq6kc9v 6 месяцев назад +30

      I would imagine an unfair draft system would be felt more keenly by poor non-slaveowning Southerners than a comparable Northerner. If any wealthy class in history had a unique obligation to fight on the front lines, it was the plantation owners in the South whose "way of life" was the cause of the war.

    • @rogerwilco2
      @rogerwilco2 6 месяцев назад +6

      Or having bone spurs in your heels.

    • @chamberlane2899
      @chamberlane2899 6 месяцев назад +10

      To be fair to Perun, the South started their conscription efforts more than a year before the North finally moved away from relying on volunteers and increasingly organized local militia forces, so the substitution issues had a while to fester before they were eventually written out of the law in December of 1863.

    • @morganmcallister2001
      @morganmcallister2001 6 месяцев назад

      @@user-nh5mq6kc9v You might think so and logically it makes sense. However, the City of New York that set up a fund to pay the substitution fee for anyone drafted out of the city. Of course, they waited until after the city rioted and the army came back from the battlefield to kill 1000 draft rioters.

  • @dumbunny7986
    @dumbunny7986 6 месяцев назад +656

    If only our government would communicate all of this with the population as you do. Your presentations are lucid and concise with a sprinkling of humor. Thank you for not treating your audience as though we're idiots.

    • @rodionraskolnikov3853
      @rodionraskolnikov3853 6 месяцев назад +7

      His coverage is too one sided, he covered the Russian opinion of the war by age group and Ukrainian option as a whole.

    • @tylerandrews4375
      @tylerandrews4375 6 месяцев назад +20

      If only news stations like the CBC had Perrin presentations playing on the morning news we’d be better off.

    • @Shenaldrac
      @Shenaldrac 6 месяцев назад +34

      Yeah but the modern zero attention spam doesn't have patience for a deeper, nuanced understanding of the world.

    • @Rob_F8F
      @Rob_F8F 6 месяцев назад +55

      Everyone here is here for a 1 hour PowerPoint. Sadly, the general population would turn the channel to Golden Bachelor after the first minute.

    • @HNH421
      @HNH421 6 месяцев назад

      @@rodionraskolnikov3853 "not treating your audience as though we're idiots" you proved dumdunny wrong by being an idiot - well done - argument won

  • @kerontherun
    @kerontherun 6 месяцев назад +546

    for me, a ukrainian, this topic is.... depressing, to say the least. but your analysis is on point, as always. keep it up!

    • @andersjjensen
      @andersjjensen 6 месяцев назад

      The fringe segment of the US Conservatives are trying to play shenanigans in the house of representatives, but ultimately there are ~150 house conservatives who support Ukraine and only ~50 who don't, while among the democrats it's nearly 100% who support Ukraine. This is just a bump on the road that will be resolved, so don't take the Russian stooges who gloat seriously. And you still have every not-a-shithole European country behind you. I'm a disability retired vet myself and I donate directly to the drone battalions every month.
      Keep supporting your boys. Even if you can just volunteer to make winter cammo nets or pack supply boxes.

    • @Hubieee
      @Hubieee 6 месяцев назад +76

      Slava Ukraini from Germany.

    • @cyrilsuperkonar3422
      @cyrilsuperkonar3422 6 месяцев назад +22

      You can always make peace, but your leader think otherwise…

    • @andersjjensen
      @andersjjensen 6 месяцев назад

      @@cyrilsuperkonar3422 "Surrender land and the people in them to Russia" is not "making peace" you absolute buffoon. The Baltics ran away from "Russian peace" as fast as they could the second they got the chance. So did Poland and the entire southern part of Eastern Europe. Don't you find it interesting that every non-Asian former SSR either joined or wants to join the military alliance that was specifically created to curb Russia's ambitions?

    • @JustAsPlanned1
      @JustAsPlanned1 6 месяцев назад +285

      @@cyrilsuperkonar3422 Attacking Ukraine and then blaming it for the continuing the war is why, Mr. Russian Guy, people don't think well of your nation these days. Shame on you.

  • @Redmist370Z
    @Redmist370Z 6 месяцев назад +68

    "But I do have a rather complex thesis to suggest why war exhaustion in societies might mount over time. And that complex thesis is that war in general is pretty damn awful."

  • @jonbaxter2254
    @jonbaxter2254 6 месяцев назад +577

    I'll word this like Perun would; with numbers and figures.
    In the UK, we spent £2 billion on Ukraine over the course of nearly 2 years. The UK spends around £45 billion a year on its own defence. The UK is not currently at war, while Ukraine is. Against one of our largest geopolitical rivals, one who has carried out chemical attacks on our own soil. In doing so, it has halved its military power, running on our second-hand supplies that were left in sheds. We haven't even used Challengers in a decade.
    I'd say we should be giving Ukraine more. Help them win this fight.

    • @RipOffProductionsLLC
      @RipOffProductionsLLC 6 месяцев назад +84

      "But why are we geopolitical rivals with Russia? Why should we care what Russia does? Isn't that Imperialism, tge very thing we cliam is wrong about Russian actions?"
      Actual arguments I've seen people making against supporting Ukraine.

    • @rossmackenzie7158
      @rossmackenzie7158 6 месяцев назад +7

      After leaving the EU you’d think Russia would be our geopolitical ally along with the USA to balance against Europe

    • @jamesgornall5731
      @jamesgornall5731 6 месяцев назад +22

      ​@@rossmackenzie7158it's just a weird historical holdover. Russia was the bulwark against the Ottoman Empire for centuries until it began to unravel

    • @Qwerty-jy9mj
      @Qwerty-jy9mj 6 месяцев назад +13

      How does a Ukranian victory look like? All of Luhansk and Donetsk? Crimea?

    • @ulfosterberg9116
      @ulfosterberg9116 6 месяцев назад +3

      ​@jamesgornall5731 that was Hungary

  • @ThadBrown
    @ThadBrown 6 месяцев назад +62

    ' . . . and even Slavs have an upper limit on how much awful they'll tolerate.' It's lines like those that keep me listening even on weeks when I think the topic isn't one for me. Great work.

  • @colejosephalexanderkashay683
    @colejosephalexanderkashay683 6 месяцев назад +284

    Very Minor correction as an American-- we have not donated 0 fighters. We, rather early on, supplied about 30 MIG-29 fighters that we'd acquired from Moldova in the 90s and had been using as opfor/redfor planes in exercises
    They were supplied as "parts" but were all shipped over, much like early polish supplies of MIGS

    • @nedsnow6566
      @nedsnow6566 6 месяцев назад +44

      US bought 21 from Moldova in 1997. IDon't know how were they maintaned over those 25 years, but I would assume that they would need a huge refiting to become operational. Still, even if they were only good for spare parts, it would help Ukr to refit and maintain whatever they still had from Soviet stock. Is there any official statement from the US regarding those Mig-29?

    • @colejosephalexanderkashay683
      @colejosephalexanderkashay683 6 месяцев назад +24

      @@nedsnow6566 I slightly overestimated the number sorry. I remember there being an official statement in mid 2022 by Kirby saying that the Ukrainians "have more fighter aircraft than two weeks ago"

    • @nedsnow6566
      @nedsnow6566 6 месяцев назад +9

      @@colejosephalexanderkashay683 no problem. Thanks, I'll see if I can find it

    • @alexgavrikov4888
      @alexgavrikov4888 6 месяцев назад +2

      F16s used as opfor in red flag. Stop making shit up.

    • @colejosephalexanderkashay683
      @colejosephalexanderkashay683 6 месяцев назад +24

      @@alexgavrikov4888 both can be true. Dumdum. Please look it up before making baseless assertions

  • @zomfgroflmao1337
    @zomfgroflmao1337 6 месяцев назад +368

    I think one thing that needs to be emphasized to the general public is the fact that the reason NATO countries have military spending at the levels they are is that Russia is the main adversary, and that providing Ukraine with, often storage level equipment, that might even cost money to decommission otherwise, is insane value for every Dollar or Euro spend on military aid to Ukraine.
    There is no way for any country to be more cost efficient in disarming THE major opposing force for NATO than providing aid to Ukraine, and that is not even considering the men that get saved by Ukraine taking the hit.
    Not sure how you can hammer that in the head of people, but no matter your political leaning, there is no better deal than providing weapons for Ukraine to defend themselves.

    • @JCtheMusicMan_
      @JCtheMusicMan_ 6 месяцев назад +36

      I share your sentiment 100%! What better way to upgrade your aging stockpile of weapons than by donating them to a worthy military in desperate need for full market value with the added bonus of significantly reducing your adversary’s capacity and expending zero personnel!❤

    • @ericp1139
      @ericp1139 6 месяцев назад +21

      Ah, so it is no longer about a fight for freedom and democracy, but more-so a dumping ground “investment.”

    • @badart3204
      @badart3204 6 месяцев назад +97

      @@ericp1139it’s both but you need to provide the realpolitik explanation to those who complain about the money

    • @Alex-lg6nz
      @Alex-lg6nz 6 месяцев назад +8

      Instead of trying to "hammer" your opinions into the heads of others, you should consider using your own brain to figure out why they disagree to begin with.
      Maybe they aren't the ones being ignorant or dumb about it. Maybe they just know their European history better than you.

    • @svace4855
      @svace4855 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@ericp1139western politicians see this war primarily as a way to weaken Russia. They give you excuses about how sending weapons will somehow shorten the war (so far, the contrary has been the case) and of course that they don't care about Ukrainian men getting killed to accomplish their objectives, they're also a part of the investment in their eyes.

  • @Mrinsecure
    @Mrinsecure 6 месяцев назад +391

    Anytime there is a war involving a nation's ally, there will be an isolationist contingent that asks "why are we supporting this when we have our own concerns?" The ability to continue supporting that ally is dependent on the ability to satisfactorily answer that contingent, and over time, it can often become harder and harder to silence them.

    • @pll3827
      @pll3827 6 месяцев назад +143

      Reminds me of 'Why Die for Danzig', where a French neo-socialist argued against intervening to support Poland during WW2.
      The author ended up a Nazi collaborator and spent the last of his days in hunted exile.

    • @NathansHVAC
      @NathansHVAC 6 месяцев назад +7

      They were so wrong about Iraq too

    • @susanne5803
      @susanne5803 6 месяцев назад +38

      I think it's also the difference between learning the far vision and not understanding it. In every scenario I can currently imagine it makes a huge amount of sense to support Ukraine until they win or Russia changes government.

    • @ItsPabloBruh
      @ItsPabloBruh 6 месяцев назад +47

      ⁠@@pll3827honestly, I do remember arguments being made about Hitler not having done anything to America so why should the U.S send arms, money and aid to the allied countries before the U.S became involved post-Pearl Harbor. Nevertheless, compared to how things were are home at that point, FDR made a lot of changes in the home front to improve the lives of everyday Americans so those with such an opinion had the benefit of his leadership with a government that took care of them at home. Now? Not so much. Most people will argue that their tax money being sent to a country who is fighting a super power isn’t right because of what we lack here at home. While our tax dollars pay Ukrainian salaries, pensions, support their domestic economy through buying seeds and fertilizer for their farmers, and so forth, many Americans look at that and as themselves why their money is used for that. Same argument could be said for Israel given that Israelis have free healthcare due to our tax money being sent there. We don’t even have free healthcare and yet they do? The things is, I don’t disagree that we can fix domestic policy while still helping Ukraine. The problem is that Congress moves heaven and earth for wars while we have to claw, justify and in a way, earn what we want even though it’s our tax money? The return on investment at home with our tax dollars is dogshit to say the least.

    • @Rob_F8F
      @Rob_F8F 6 месяцев назад +39

      What you say is sadly true. There's a contingent in Gove that believes any domestic program is a "hand-out" to the undeserving and ineligible.

  • @martinhubinette2254
    @martinhubinette2254 6 месяцев назад +45

    As a Swede: Gib Gripen. Nuff said.

    • @gingernutpreacher
      @gingernutpreacher 6 месяцев назад +6

      Get it done then

    • @nelo4047
      @nelo4047 6 месяцев назад +13

      And the infamous surströmming cluster minnitions is the true game changer. Meteors afre fine too.

    • @KGAnims
      @KGAnims 6 месяцев назад +4

      ​@@nelo4047Damn, calm down, Satan

    • @aaronfalcon3152
      @aaronfalcon3152 6 месяцев назад +11

      I am lowkey pretty sure that carpet bombing trenches with surstromming would be a warcrime as use of chemical weapons or something like that

    • @ElijsDima
      @ElijsDima 6 месяцев назад

      Probably some backroom deal that has hooked (unwritten ofc) the gripen in exchange for finally getting sweden into nato (which seems to get torpedoed month after month with no end in sight). I think, if the pig actually flies, if hell does freeze over, and Hungary & Turkey actually admit Sweden into Nato, then Gripens will be donated or loaned within a month or two.

  • @TobiasRD
    @TobiasRD 6 месяцев назад +762

    Can we talk about how mind-boggling it is that people are "getting tired" of a war their country is not actively fighting in?

    • @dinokknd
      @dinokknd 6 месяцев назад +165

      No. It's not mind-boggling to dislike war whether or not you are actively fighting it.

    • @cruise_missile8387
      @cruise_missile8387 6 месяцев назад +111

      *Tired of giving all of our money and equipment to said war only to have the Ukrainians lose it all.
      Besides, we just spent 20 years fighting our OWN wars, so yeah we're tired and need to rebuild a generation.

    • @valdasdr8432
      @valdasdr8432 6 месяцев назад +30

      Almost like people don't like genocide. Crazy

    • @sjoormen1
      @sjoormen1 6 месяцев назад +161

      You're forgetting that in EU there are a lot of prorussian idiots that actively support putler. And listening to all that crap is tiresome.

    • @j.erickson8571
      @j.erickson8571 6 месяцев назад +50

      That's not exactly true. Considering that we have to pay for this war indirectly through higher prices and now the real threat of higher taxes. War is not cheap, and UA is not fotting the bill. We are.

  • @Algimantaz
    @Algimantaz 6 месяцев назад +115

    “Even slavs have an upper limit for how much awful they’ll tolerate” 😂😂😂

    • @buddyrojek9417
      @buddyrojek9417 6 месяцев назад

      Russians are not Slavs , they are mongols. Western Russians are not fighting, they are running away. Basically Ukraine is fighting zombies with alcoholism

    • @andersgrassman6583
      @andersgrassman6583 6 месяцев назад +4

      Agree, it was very funny sinister humor. When did Russian's enjoy a reasonable happy life on average? - Never!
      ("Slavs" as in themeaning slavic people, is actually derived from the viking word for slaves ("slavar"), because they went their to catch slaves. Aktually Kyiv was founded as a viking slave trading post. It's the true story, even if not so flattering for me, beeing Swedish.)

    • @CarterNicholas
      @CarterNicholas 6 месяцев назад +11

      @@andersgrassman6583 It comes from protoslavic 'Slověninъ' most likely meaning 'slovo' (word) to indicate common spoken language among tribes. In byzantine greek they were called 'Sklabēnoí' since greek didn't have word root 'sl-' but 'skl-' was already there, also in greek 'b' was pronounced as 'v' at times and that's why in latin slavs were called 'Sclaveni'. It's true that slavs were often captured into slavery but it wasn't until 8th century (so hundreds of years later) when word 'slav' became synonymous with slave because of that. Also no need to feel bad about it, everyone was capturing anyone they could back then that includes slavs as well, who often captured other slavs to sell.

    • @nvelsen1975
      @nvelsen1975 6 месяцев назад +1

      @@andersgrassman6583
      Things were doing relatively well in czarist times when Russia wasn't constantly waging war and trending to western policies. Peter The Great for example working on copying agricultural policies, specifically those invented after the year 1100 and not yet being in Russia at the time. 😆

    • @andrewklang809
      @andrewklang809 6 месяцев назад +5

      @@andersgrassman6583 "Slave" came from "Slav". Not the other way around. There were many words for slaves in the middle ages, but this just happened to be the one that made it into English, likely due to the Danelaw and other Viking occupations of the British Isles and Normandy (so there would be both Old English and French usages of the word prior to the Norman Conquest). Norse usage of a Russian word to fit their associations with it also made its way west because the Norse were just all over the place back then.

  • @justskip4595
    @justskip4595 6 месяцев назад +180

    We have been keeping a close eye on the doings of Russia since forever here in Finland. It's a luxury in my eyes if you can to not care at all. It is also expected that there are other things in life too and you have limited time and energy for things.
    People who are making things to "all or nothing" are making things worse for all.

    • @GrimReaperNegi
      @GrimReaperNegi 6 месяцев назад +1

      "It's a luxury in my eyes if you can to not care at all," I have trouble understanding what that means, but as I read the rest of your comment, I feel like you are indicating that everyone talking about the conflict are making it into a worse situation? And if so, I feel you should replace "luxury " with "beneficial."
      And could you elaborate, on how it is worse? Taxes, political excuses, unnecessary stress?

    • @herptek
      @herptek 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@GrimReaperNegiDon't pretend to be stupid. It is a luxury of those situated far away from Russia to not care about the extent of Russian power. Now that Russia basically all but declared war against us as well by their little special migration operation, which is worse an atrocity than actual war if you ask me, there is no reason to finally take the gloves off and start punching back. This time even the left wing of politics mostly agrees from opposition that tougher measures need to be imposed. There will be revenge.

    • @valdasdr8432
      @valdasdr8432 6 месяцев назад +6

      @@GrimReaperNegi world war is bad. Not that hard to comprehend.

    • @stockdale829
      @stockdale829 6 месяцев назад +1

      Eventually the morality in NATO will allow it to close the door on membership for Ukraine. Hopefully.

    • @justskip4595
      @justskip4595 6 месяцев назад +22

      @@GrimReaperNegi I read through your comment 4 times and I am struggling to understand what you are trying to say.
      My English skills are severely lacking despite almost 30 years of active use thanks to not being linguistically gifted and speaking a language as my first language that is not indo-european language.
      I will try to rephrase that section of my first comment in different way in case it ends up clarifying things: It is a luxurious position for a person to be in to be secure enough in their life to not care about wars of aggression by a country that holds the biggest nuclear arms stockpile in the world and doesn't even care that others such as their allies/ potential allies/ trading partners might care about it a lot. Also they have such a secure financial position that the effects to global trade that this sort of thing and the following potential outcome(s) will have that they are willing to leave matters for others to choose for them.
      I tried opening and expanding that further while trying to keep it concise and as short as possible. There is a lot more that could be said though.

  • @Masada1911
    @Masada1911 6 месяцев назад +344

    The west will seriously rue the day we abandon Ukraine. After the assurances they have gotten we need to support them no matter what. If we don’t what will our word mean in the future? What is Article 5 worth at that point? Is it worth the Baltics? Is it worth Karelia?
    Putin will be trying to find those answers too.

    • @bernardvc5820
      @bernardvc5820 6 месяцев назад

      the west has grown fat and lazy, and is being attacked via hybrid means in an attempt to tear appart our societies. The clownworld of the past 5 years didn't arise out of nothing but is the result of outside actors funding people and ideas that are inimical to Western society.

    • @thisismarkbro
      @thisismarkbro 6 месяцев назад +22

      ukranine cost too much money

    • @750suzuki7
      @750suzuki7 6 месяцев назад +38

      Article 5 only applies to NATO members. Ukraine is not a NATO member, yet. Ukraine cannot join NATO until the war is over, one way or another.

    • @vablo7198
      @vablo7198 6 месяцев назад +90

      ​@@thisismarkbroThe US has 5000 abhrams in storage with no war in sight were they could be used. Except for Ukraine and in ukraine there are no american soldiers dying in them. Why not send 200 abhrams to ukraine? Tell me that.

    • @calebbearup4282
      @calebbearup4282 6 месяцев назад +16

      @@vablo7198 why not send 2000 to the Polish border. Poland gets to keep one for every 5 they refurbish and get Ukraine to drive across the border.

  • @fjalics
    @fjalics 6 месяцев назад +220

    I'm American. I don't want to send American troops. I'd love to see us send more stuff.

    • @aidanm.655
      @aidanm.655 6 месяцев назад +16

      To what end? It’s quite clear to me that Ukraine has been losing since Bakhmut. This counteroffensive is likely their Stalingrad, and Avdiivka is just the first of many advances Russia will make this winter.
      At this point no amount of money will save them. I want to see peace, and Ukraine return to a state similar to Georgia (parts of it annexed by Russia but most of it neutral and independent).
      The longer this war goes on, the less likely Putin will be to accept any form of Ukrainian sovereignty. It’s better to cut our loses and have them keep what they already own, than fan the war a few more years and have them lose everything.

    • @stephenzavatski8016
      @stephenzavatski8016 6 месяцев назад

      Fuck no, we can't afford that shit. We need to worry about America first.

    • @jack727dave5
      @jack727dave5 6 месяцев назад +79

      @@aidanm.655​​⁠​​⁠Funny how you call their offensive Stalingrad and ignore the losses Russia is taking at Adviivka. But anyways Ukraine is fighting a defensive war, all they need to do is stay in the game to win as Afghanistan proved.
      Otherwise I agree with OP. No troops and non of our really fancy tech but everything else is fair game to get shipped over.

    • @guru47pi
      @guru47pi 6 месяцев назад +26

      Sending Frontline troops was never on the table.
      What was, though, was supplying surplus equipment to Ukraine to do the fighting that's in both our interest at a tiny fraction of the cost we spent on Afghanistan, Iraq, or even the F-35.

    • @Rob_F8F
      @Rob_F8F 6 месяцев назад +22

      ​@@aidanm.655When Russia retakes Kherson, then talk of a peace with ceded territory can restart.
      When Russia takes Kharkiv for the first time, then talk of a peace with ceded territory can restart.
      Ukraine hasn't lost and Russian victory is not inevitable. The confident talk about the later is just so much bluster.

  • @jamham69
    @jamham69 6 месяцев назад +19

    on the topic of public support, its also worth considering how different groups are considered when you ask the question "do you approve of these people?"
    "do you approve of your government?" generally means "would you prefer a different party?", which is very easy to agree to.
    "do you approve of iran?" might be interpreted as "should this state be allowed to exist and should be go to war with them?" which might be very difficult to agree to.
    people dont have to like a nation to not want to turn those relations sour.

  • @CEOofCulturalMarxism
    @CEOofCulturalMarxism 6 месяцев назад +39

    “Most Videos don’t end with total decisive victories” 2:49
    - Perun

    • @parokki
      @parokki 6 месяцев назад +13

      Definitely true if you look at the numbers. Two years of weekly content and this damn thing is still not over.

  • @padorupadoru4477
    @padorupadoru4477 6 месяцев назад +269

    still found it interesting that for Ukraine to join NATO, it had to defeat the very reason why NATO was formed

    • @paulbeesley8283
      @paulbeesley8283 6 месяцев назад +124

      As entry qualifications go, it's a bit of a tough one.

    • @fatmanwalking8610
      @fatmanwalking8610 6 месяцев назад +2

      No one ever said that

    • @Davey-Boyd
      @Davey-Boyd 6 месяцев назад +89

      @@fatmanwalking8610 No, but it is still a fact. Ukraine cannot join NATO while at war and cannot join if it loses.

    • @changingform250
      @changingform250 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@Davey-Boydthere is a cheat, Russia doesn't claim to be at war, so how can Ukraine be at war with them?
      It's more the tangled political mess that such a move would create that stops it, as well as a wannabe dictator in Hungary trying to stop it.

    • @ZxMoonLightxZ
      @ZxMoonLightxZ 6 месяцев назад +6

      Ukraine could join before all this fiasco, but literal decades passed with out moving a finger.

  • @riotintheair
    @riotintheair 6 месяцев назад +76

    The US Congress is super unpopular but if you poll people on their Congress person they're collectively positive. It's the other people's representatives that suck, but most people think their representative is great.
    We see the same thing in US budgets - majorities think spending is too high but cuts to every major department are unpopular as different people think different departments should be cut and there's no majority for cutting anything particular.

    • @atomf9143
      @atomf9143 6 месяцев назад +14

      This. Everyone in the US can accept having a vote, but man do other people make some super dumb votes. And I understand that many would think the same of me and my congresspeople.

    • @emptiester
      @emptiester 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@atomf9143in fairness other peoplr are quite dumb.

    • @skeewiffenator
      @skeewiffenator 6 месяцев назад +1

      It’s probably because it’s the names they recognize

    • @horstnietzsche1923
      @horstnietzsche1923 5 месяцев назад

      ​@@skeewiffenatoror because they mostly voted for them? I mean they did win the majority of the votes in said area.

  • @stephenbeucler7645
    @stephenbeucler7645 6 месяцев назад +19

    Very good summary of the situation. I especially appreciated you mentioning the role the Afghanistan pullout played in driving the rather unfocused American aid effort. Obviously more could be said, but that point is crucial to understanding current U.S. aid efforts to Ukraine and is missed by virtually all organizations claiming to be journalists today.

  • @jacobno7400
    @jacobno7400 6 месяцев назад +3

    Amazing video as always! Thank you and the team for all the hard work!

  • @MrBuyerman
    @MrBuyerman 6 месяцев назад +5

    Week after week, 2 years, solidly pumping out high calibre content. 👍💯💯👍

  • @SemiIocon
    @SemiIocon 6 месяцев назад +167

    It's insane how fast the human mind gets used to things. At the beginning, who would have thought Ukraine would hold on this long? It was genuinely surprising. Now, people are like "now win already and under imperfect conditions, I don't care anymore". Crazy.

    • @esense9602
      @esense9602 6 месяцев назад +4

      it's all about profit. If businessmen and politician see this war not profitable, they will just change their narratives.

    • @NathansHVAC
      @NathansHVAC 6 месяцев назад +3

      You are not supposed to say the war is about profit. Putin will take all of europe, right?

    • @esense9602
      @esense9602 6 месяцев назад

      @@NathansHVAC then why there's always a leverage in a donations then?

    • @jack727dave5
      @jack727dave5 6 месяцев назад +32

      @@NathansHVAC Both can be true. Russia is waging a foreign war of annexation which should be opposed and the military industry complex is getting new customers.
      They are undoubtedly pushing to support the war but given how Russia’s been doing thing like denying international observers to see their prison camps and kidnapping hundreds of children from Ukraine we should oppose them as well.

    • @Ag3nt0fCha0s
      @Ag3nt0fCha0s 6 месяцев назад +1

      I could not have said this better

  • @Karvaaja
    @Karvaaja 6 месяцев назад +13

    He's right, you know. Most videos DON'T end with total, absolute, decisive victory for one side or the other.

  • @_np7
    @_np7 6 месяцев назад +2

    I really enjoy your videos, the way you structure them and go into detail as well as your unique perspective!

  • @knpark2025
    @knpark2025 6 месяцев назад +66

    If my government struck a deal with USA to "retire" our VII Maneuver Corps into mothball facility in a poorly guarded facility in Poland, and applied to become the first NATO nation in APAC in return, I will support said decision. It doesn't mean I believe my government should do so, and I know it is not happening in a sane government. Consistency is good in general, but sometimes there's a case like this one where people are consistently in pain. A quality content about future prospects about the war in the year *2024* is bittersweet.

  • @Warpcaller
    @Warpcaller 6 месяцев назад +3

    Great job as always, keep up the good work!

  • @judithcampbell1705
    @judithcampbell1705 6 месяцев назад +4

    Thank you 💛 so very much Perun for this excellent analysis. As usual it was thorough. Your the absolute best Perun!!! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤

  • @Vanetics
    @Vanetics 6 месяцев назад +14

    you give so much incredibly useful information, I wish more of the uninformed would see all of your videos.

  • @hans-jurgenscholz4334
    @hans-jurgenscholz4334 6 месяцев назад +85

    Pretty good and comprehensive with differential views and perspectives. Ukraine must win this war... Slava Ukraini

    • @jackthorton10
      @jackthorton10 6 месяцев назад +7

      Agreed

    • @michaelring6077
      @michaelring6077 6 месяцев назад

      Ukraine ain't going to win this war

    • @kirstinevad347
      @kirstinevad347 6 месяцев назад +3

      Heroyam slava 🌱

    • @MaximumEfficiency
      @MaximumEfficiency 6 месяцев назад

      Anyone supporting transZensky is a traitor of Ukrainian people!

    • @bluewizzard8843
      @bluewizzard8843 6 месяцев назад +3

      They won't. So much is clear already and that's obvious.

  • @zanzastrow5600
    @zanzastrow5600 6 месяцев назад +16

    Thank you for your high-quality analysis and unbelievable consisteny. This is the high point of my YT week!

  • @MeanMachine1992
    @MeanMachine1992 6 месяцев назад +67

    I've said this before, and I'll say it again. It's actually *_in the best interest_* of the United States for the war in Ukraine to continue. At a measly price of 50-60 billion dollars a year in aid to Ukraine (most of which is equipment that is destined for the scrapyard anyway, which could possibly even cost more to scrap), the United States gets to completely write the Russian headache off and focus entirely on China and East Asia. The longer Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, under sanctions and focused on Ukraine while being internationally humiliated for the mess that is Russian equipment, logistics, tactics and policy decisions, the better.
    That's the deal of the century right there.

    • @georgekostaras
      @georgekostaras 6 месяцев назад

      So in other words the USA is prepared to slaughter millions of Ukrainians if they think it’ll give Russia a black eye. That’s not a good deal, that’s monstrous in the extreme

    • @SianaGearz
      @SianaGearz 6 месяцев назад +10

      As a Ukrainian - that's just painful to even consider. But we also can't just dismiss that this may well be the way things are.

    • @scorpixel1866
      @scorpixel1866 6 месяцев назад +5

      ​​@@jackoates6418 It's not like every neighbour of Russia either flocked under the protection of NATO or was swallowed back under the former's hegemony after the end of the USSR.
      If my dreams could be as real as the ones you speak of, i'd be splattered on the ground fifty times over (sadly didn't dream of being rich yet).

    • @MrBCWalker01
      @MrBCWalker01 6 месяцев назад +6

      This is the most sensible argument for supporting Ukraine that I've heard.
      Pair it with Peter Zeihan's take on Russia being in an existential crisis (it has to do this war now, or it won't be able to ever) and things make sense.

    • @SianaGearz
      @SianaGearz 6 месяцев назад +2

      @@MrBCWalker01 I don't know. It sounds to me like an argument to string Ukraine along giving it the bare minimum to survive but NEVER to win.

  • @mitchellbailey7030
    @mitchellbailey7030 6 месяцев назад +1

    Love the channel PERUN !!! Looking forward to the new releases coming soon. 👍🏻🫡

  • @ElementalNimbus
    @ElementalNimbus 6 месяцев назад +74

    Re: US house/senate approval, for those not here and were surprised how low those are even given how low is generally normal. I'm sure you've heard our two-party system has become even more bitterly divided and shifted dramatically towards 'Anything that hurts the other team' methods. In order to get the bare basics of governing done a vote needs a basic majority. In order to get any real change done, a super majority. With the current split there are votes that fail to even get a basic majority, which is to say even the party in 'control' is blocking itself.
    Congress is frozen and useless in the US right now, to a scary degree. Real things that need done, that both sides agree need done, are failing. I'm sure the world is also tired of the "Is the richest country on the planet going to default on debt for literally no reason and cause a global financial crisis" story every few months, especially since it could still happen. Now apply that to every single other part of governing.
    13% is generous, it should be lower. A major branch of our government is fundamentally broken and there is no even slightly feasible fix on the way. This is causing massive distrust and hate of governance in general, further fueling extremists, who get elected and go out the way to break it further.
    So... yeah. Good times!

    • @danis8455
      @danis8455 6 месяцев назад

      I wish i knew how to get US to implement more parties in to the mix! Since i feel thats what we use, to sortof sideline the radical movement on both sides. sometimes they even get their say...its just fairly rarely so they represent the fairly small group they are.
      I saw peter zaihan said it had happened a few times before that a third part comes up and sortof breaks the election for one side and forces them to rethink.

    • @garythecyclingnerd6219
      @garythecyclingnerd6219 6 месяцев назад

      And this is why Ukraine is doomed. While I support Ukraine arms for now, the GOP does not. I’d make a comfortable bet that funding will end by spring ‘24, causing other Euro nations to pull funding, and Ukraine will not exist by Christmas’25

    • @joansparky4439
      @joansparky4439 6 месяцев назад +1

      electing 0.00x% of the populace into positions of power (lawmaking) was always gonna end up that special creek. Too bad the Founding Fathers were too selfish and followed Plato's flawed and badly researched guide, although the Romans had already "tested" such a system of Governance to failure.

    • @jdawg8487
      @jdawg8487 6 месяцев назад

      The football team mentality of American politics is so f*cking stupid. It’s not about what’s best for our country but about “owning the libs/cons”. It’s too bad that while there are good people in Congress, it’s the idiots more interested in social media likes who block any real progress on solving problems.
      I guess the only real saving grace for the US is that there really is no one else (not even China at this point) that can dislodge its status as the main global hegemon.

    • @ElementalNimbus
      @ElementalNimbus 6 месяцев назад +28

      Reading back - my comment comes off as very both sides blaming. While each party historically has faults, just to be clear, the loss in support for Ukraine is firmly on the modern republican party and the dictator they have chosen to rule them. Not really here to debate this, as it is a fact, just wanted to be very clear. From any rational perspective, on either side, from war hawk to peaceniks, supporting Ukraine is the correct choice for the US. Morally, ethically, pragmatically, economically, diplomatically, all the other -allys too.
      Honestly it is hard to find anything so clear cut that actually exist in reality and not some silly hypothetical.

  • @matthewnewell4517
    @matthewnewell4517 6 месяцев назад +94

    Give Ukraine whatever they need, they are taking Russia off the table for the loss of old Nato kit. We'll never get such a great opportunity again.

    • @SaturnVII
      @SaturnVII 6 месяцев назад +8

      You should eat your hat in honor of the million Ukrainian casualties to this point.

    • @jasonm949
      @jasonm949 6 месяцев назад +1

      Why aren't you there fighting, if you believe in it so much?

    • @matthewnewell4517
      @matthewnewell4517 6 месяцев назад

      I've served for 35 years, and in numerous conflicts, I've served in Eastern Europe three times, I will be there again next year. How about you, keyboard warrior? @@jasonm949

    • @atomf9143
      @atomf9143 6 месяцев назад

      @@SaturnVII I'm assuming there is a translation mistake here because that is not a coherent or logical sentence structure at all.

    • @joeelliott2157
      @joeelliott2157 6 месяцев назад

      Should those who supported Lent-Lease have eaten their hats for all the British people who were killed by the Germans? No. Because I lot more would have been killed without that support.
      I don't think SaturnVII cares about the Ukrainian people. I don't think the decision for Ukraine to fight or not fight should be made by SaturnVII. Or by me. It should be made by the Ukrainian people. And so long as they want to be free of Russians (what rational people wouldn't) we should support them.@@SaturnVII

  • @konsyjes
    @konsyjes 6 месяцев назад +1

    Fricking GREAT ideas you bring up, and EXACTLTY relevant to Ukraine right now. Thank you Perun, you're irreplaceable.

  • @tonivazquez1081
    @tonivazquez1081 6 месяцев назад +1

    We should be the ones thanking you Perun. Great video as always.

  • @jadetehauaruadams
    @jadetehauaruadams 6 месяцев назад +3

    Very good video, thank you for your efforts. I would be very interested to see a pair of videos from your unique perspective, one on the Myanmar conflict, and another on the Venezuela/Guyana situation. Your ability to look at the economic and logistics of global incidents is very insightful. Cheers

    • @sodnpoo
      @sodnpoo 6 месяцев назад

      Yes

  • @merlijnbazuine5075
    @merlijnbazuine5075 6 месяцев назад +203

    As a simple democratic Dutch citizen, I can say this: I will not ever vote for any politician even suggesting we should consider reducing our support. I will not even accept without protest my party of choice forming a coalition with a party that does.
    In my view, only Ukraine gets to decide what they want, when to accept a truce and under what conditions. They earned that right by blood, sweat and tears.
    My view is that Russia poses an existential threat to our western freedom and social-liberal society, they will not stop. Not after Tsjetsjnia they did. Not after Georgia they did. Not after MH-17 they did. They never will unless forced to stop. Furthermore, the Ukranians do the suffering and dying while we sit in our cosy homes celebrating Christmas singing songs of peace and treating our kids to presents. It is what it is when dealing with a nuclear armed, violently imperialistic dictator. But it does make us honourbound to help Ukraine any which way we can. Importantly, we are indepted to Ukraine even beyond this war, so yes, we should accept Ukraine in NATO as soon as the Russian guns fall silent, doing whatever it takes to "convince" the likes of Orban to not stand in the way or simply be ran over by the Red Ball Express. This to guarantee Ukraine peace and to shield them from further Russian agression. We also need to economically assist Ukraine and allow them into the EU so we can support and save her economy and allocate massive funds to rebuild. As a Dutch (!) person, and not extremely wealthy at that,I would happily accept a tax increase to facilitate that if needed.
    Just one opinion, of one person, one vote. But I am betting there is more good folk out there who feel the same. If you don't, watch "20 days in Mariupol" and we'll talk further... after you're done sobbing and blowing through your wife's supply of Kleenex handkerchiefs for the Saturday night romantic movies.

    • @MadmanInUkraine
      @MadmanInUkraine 6 месяцев назад +8

      100% amen on that Merlijn.
      Too bloody bad that 37 parliamentary seats worth of votes didn't agree with our opinion.
      It has been so problematic that the man that painted the picture of the future for our voters in the weeks running up to the elections told a greatly nicer and more gentle story than he normally would. Besides that most of our countrymen don't even realise that most of this party's plans are hard to execute without change to our constitution. Meaning it's impossible for a long time.
      War fatigue, as Timothy Snyder mentioned, is a virtual feeling, never felt by fighters, just by people that suffer from boredom.
      I agree with your film tip, although I'm afraid the effect is similar as the latest 'exorcist' would have. One evening of shock, the next morning all is forgotten.
      I may be a tad pessimistic though....

    • @valdasdr8432
      @valdasdr8432 6 месяцев назад

      But you see there's such thing as reality. And reality is that the average Ukrainian fighter's age is 43. All young Ukrainian men are dead or have left the country, while Russia has tens of millions of men that they can be draft. You're basically wrote such a cute long text enabling total genocide of Ukrainian men.

    • @NitoKuvell
      @NitoKuvell 6 месяцев назад

      People like you will have the blood of the Ukrainians in your hands, yet again. Most dutch do nor agree with you, thus the candidate that won majority, a lot wokism is propagated by the US media, even Zalensky and Zalusny are currently fighting in the media, the mayor's are also in open rebellion against Zalensky, how Long before a house divided against itself falls?

    • @davidlloyd2583
      @davidlloyd2583 6 месяцев назад +6

      keep biting on the sh-t sandwich.

    • @MadmanInUkraine
      @MadmanInUkraine 6 месяцев назад +1

      Ps: your reaction is 100% something I fully agree to.
      Former general de Kruyff and Mr. de Wijk mentioned exactly the same and valid arguments.

  • @1337LXD
    @1337LXD 6 месяцев назад

    Slušao sve i jedan video. Super ti je kanal.

  • @LegatoOfficial
    @LegatoOfficial 6 месяцев назад +1

    Ayo! The weekend is never complete until Perun uploads!

  • @loduke3905
    @loduke3905 6 месяцев назад +95

    People, specifically those in the U.S. need to understand and remember that the funds for military equipment and the delivery of said equipment from our stockpiles is keeping our economy rock solid and has created so so so so many additional jobs in the U.S. An adversary invaded ANOTHER of it's neighbors, has said it wants to restore its old historical borders and is now bordering nato states. It just keeps creeping along, choping off chunks of territories as it gets closer and closer to its goal. Ignoring the countless military and geopolitics issues w Russia and the war in Ukraine. American's that love to use the "well we can send all this money to Ukraine but...." most of the money spent is actually being pumped back into our own economy. Sure there's some funds that go to Ukraine but it is one element that has created record numbers of job growth in the U.S. in 70 plus years. There are like 30 states that create hardware, material, or build these weapons and systems. THAT then frees up our old stock and allows us to upgrade and rotate out. So this money is creating jobs and allowing company's to expand their operations which in turn goes into the pockets of American's. So when people whine about the economics of sending Ukraine equipment and aid, I just can't understand how they don't GET IT. Again ignoring the numerous geopolitics and military consequences of if we don't support Ukraine, the math is mathing on why it IS helping the U.S. and many other nato countries ECONOMICALLY!

    • @elideaver
      @elideaver 6 месяцев назад +13

      Consider paragraph breaks

    • @FortuneZer0
      @FortuneZer0 6 месяцев назад +15

      ​@@elideaverConsider complimenting first like "Good points" and gliding into "Have you tried segmenting it in order to make it more approachable to more people?"
      Now I refuse to elaborate further and leave.

    • @Negativvv
      @Negativvv 6 месяцев назад +1

      True but most people don't understand that much text.

    • @valdasdr8432
      @valdasdr8432 6 месяцев назад

      @@FortuneZer0 Consider coming back.

    • @GeloLego99
      @GeloLego99 6 месяцев назад +13

      you are trading lifes of people around the world for enriching the pockets of the MIC companies. How very noble of you

  • @LegaliseFinland
    @LegaliseFinland 6 месяцев назад +6

    A lot of valuable information in this video, thank you for informing my opinions.

    • @Husein_B58
      @Husein_B58 6 месяцев назад

      A lot of huge information dumps wrapped in cope and excuses why Ukraine is collapsing 😂

    • @laurenceguillosson679
      @laurenceguillosson679 6 месяцев назад +1

      ​@@Husein_B58hahaha😂

  • @jimsack1
    @jimsack1 6 месяцев назад

    Your work is comprehensive and excellent, alway a highlight of the week and well worth the wait. Thank you.

  • @lucasfernando4097
    @lucasfernando4097 6 месяцев назад +281

    I am Brazilian.
    Recently, my president made a speech where he said something along the lines of "Why do we spend so much money on war, on weapons, instead of spending to eradicate hunger? It is very sad that nations prioritize this." A seemingly admirable speech, if we ignore the global context in which it is made.
    Now, I ask you: Does this kind of statement feed into the russian push for war fatigue? Does this statement contribute to the end of the war in Ukraine's terms or russia's terms?
    The answer is very clear to me and this is a warning for whoever out there has a hint of admiration for a figure like Lula.
    Lula IS NOT a friend of Ukraine. Lula IS NOT a friend of Western democracies. Lula IS NOT a defender of democratic values.
    Lula comes from the reactionary left. They have ALWAYS been aligned with the former Soviet Union.
    This is how bizarre the russian propaganda is: it appeals to the right in the US, but to the left in Brazil. Be warned!

    • @harukrentz435
      @harukrentz435 6 месяцев назад +2

      bozzo loves high inflation

    • @colincampbell4261
      @colincampbell4261 6 месяцев назад

      Lulu's opposition are fascists and right wing rich boys.

    • @maxpower3990
      @maxpower3990 6 месяцев назад +23

      The outcome of this war will it affect Brazil in any noticeable way no matter who wins or how long it takes.
      So if Lulu’s only priority is the welfare of the Brazilian people then he is correct. Brazil isn’t a country with a large military and can’t afford to send much military hardware to Ukraine.
      I am in a similar position as an Australian. While we are currently increasing spending on our military that is all being focused on defending against China. We are also a small nation with a small army and haven’t sent as much support to Ukraine as I would like or that we could.
      If we were as close to Russia as the Baltics and not China then I’m sure our priorities would be different.

    • @SvalbardSleeperDistrict
      @SvalbardSleeperDistrict 6 месяцев назад +28

      There is no such thing as "reactionary left" - the entire concept of reactionary politics precludes that from being the case. And using "aligned with the former Soviet Union" as a sort of attack on countries who chose that policy for self-protection from American imperialism in Central/South America - something that has been doing unimaginable damage to the region between the late 19th century and up until today - is laughable. You may not agree with Lula, and point out problems with his position on Ukraine, but making these incoherent and politically illiterate extrapolations from that is not serious.

    • @janaejoaodosacramento9731
      @janaejoaodosacramento9731 6 месяцев назад +1

      @@SvalbardSleeperDistrict for gods sake he says Venezuela is a democracy he is not an o rights for everyone guy he is an idiot

  • @Thrance
    @Thrance 6 месяцев назад +10

    Always love the content! I come for the in-depth analysis, stay for the snarky humor.

  • @kajus1402
    @kajus1402 6 месяцев назад +27

    Ah yes. My weekly PowerPoint presentation!

  • @lifeontheX
    @lifeontheX 6 месяцев назад +2

    Outstanding assement sir. I don't know how you are able hit the nail every time.

  • @paranoidandroid7718
    @paranoidandroid7718 6 месяцев назад +1

    The only good thing about working Sundays, in retail, in December, is being so busy you forget Perun posts that day, then you get home to such a pleasant surprise.
    Thank you sir!

  • @dannyzero692
    @dannyzero692 6 месяцев назад +3

    Your favorite Australian powerpoint man has return!

  • @damianmares5338
    @damianmares5338 6 месяцев назад +12

    I think another reason why the age of fighting men in both countries sways towards 40-50 years old is because those are the generations still fit for the army that had to go into mandatory conscription into the late '80s Soviet Union to late '90s successor states. That means that at the start of the war , many people in their '40s and '50s have had at some point some sort of basic military training at minimum and were either called up or incentivized to sign up themselves.

    • @FactoryofRedstone
      @FactoryofRedstone 6 месяцев назад +1

      I think what is also not an insignificant factor is that men in their 40s and 50s are in a better condition than they ever were before in history. Due to the decreased need for heavy physical labor and increased capabilities of healthcare people are generally a lot healthier than generations before. Even though a 20-year-old is still significantly fitter than a 40-year-old, never in history, the 40-year-old could still be going out campaigning having either the same or only a slightly reduced combat effectiveness.

    • @randomnobodovsky3692
      @randomnobodovsky3692 6 месяцев назад +1

      "many people in their '40s and '50s have had at some point some sort of basic military training" - just like Ukrainians in their late 20s or 30s. In other words: no, that's not exactly the case.

    • @randomnobodovsky3692
      @randomnobodovsky3692 6 месяцев назад

      @@FactoryofRedstone "men in their 40s and 50s are in a better condition than they ever were before in history" / " increased capabilities of healthcare "
      - in Ukraine? Their healthcare actually seemed to deteriorate since Soviet times for the majority of the population that isn't rich. Healthcare access in Ukraine was so bad, substantial number of women in rural areas didn't to doctor for any checkup during pregnancy. People were allowed to buy antibiotics over the counter and self-medicate. Etc.
      "Due to the decreased need for heavy physical labor" - I vividly remember millions of Ukrainian physical labourers in Poland just before the war.

    • @FactoryofRedstone
      @FactoryofRedstone 6 месяцев назад +1

      @@randomnobodovsky3692 This is not a comparison over the last 30 to 50 years, nor a comparison of Ukraine and Russia to Western European countries, but a historical comparison.
      A lot of conception of how a peer-on-paper war is supposed to look still stems from the First and Second World Wars. While the perception how the population that is drafted is supposed to look like is still the same as during the Napoleonic era: Young men.
      Compared to those times you could say: Antibiotics exist and you don't die or get crippled with sepsis anymore. Bulldogs exist and you don't have to plow your fields with a horse or oxen. And even if you have a physically demanding job. I rather have a power drill and dynamite for mining than a pickaxe.
      This mechanization of most jobs (especially agricultural) started between the World Wars but only solidified after the War. Especially with more and more affordable equipment.

  • @catsnads01
    @catsnads01 6 месяцев назад

    Excellent stuff, as usual. Thank you!

  • @Zazyr
    @Zazyr 6 месяцев назад +2

    Excellent work as usual.

  • @deathofecho3931
    @deathofecho3931 6 месяцев назад +5

    Oh yes! Another Perun vid.
    Best part of the week!

  • @mursefaneca
    @mursefaneca 6 месяцев назад +30

    Thank you Australia, for giving us Perun. Absolute legend back at it again with another banger.
    And a Merry Christmas to everyone watching!

  • @mayuzanevideos
    @mayuzanevideos 6 месяцев назад +1

    Just wanted to say thank you for doing this topic, it’s something I’ve thought about for a long while. It’s hard to measure war exhaustion even with accurate polling, because like you’ve explained, in some cases even with a war being extremely unpopular the war may still continue regardless due to other factors.

  • @onomastikon7975
    @onomastikon7975 6 месяцев назад

    Another fantastic zoom out, thanks for keeping the focus on Ukraine (as opposed to abstract systems or other nations)

  • @Valiguss
    @Valiguss 6 месяцев назад +81

    It’s also well documented at least in the U.S. that voters eyes basically glaze over when it comes to foreign policy.
    They may say they think too much aid is going to Ukraine, but none of them know enough or care enough to rly talk about it or to even vote with it in mind most likely.

    • @smergthedargon8974
      @smergthedargon8974 6 месяцев назад +2

      'cause when your country has consistently being screwing you for decades, it's hard to care about other countries even when you really should.

    • @garythecyclingnerd6219
      @garythecyclingnerd6219 6 месяцев назад +7

      @@smergthedargon8974We can do both but Congress, and thus the people, are ok with getting neither.

    • @michaelramon2411
      @michaelramon2411 6 месяцев назад +1

      I do think that Ukraine might be an important part of the presidential campaign this year if Trump regains the nomination. Biden can argue with a straight face that a vote for Trump is a vote against Ukraine (which will swing some people), while it seems hard to imagine that Trump's anti-Ukraine stance is going to specifically win many votes.

    • @garythecyclingnerd6219
      @garythecyclingnerd6219 6 месяцев назад

      @@michaelramon2411 Are you kidding? WHEN Trump runs, the GOP will foam at the mouth to backstab Ukraine. They will hand it to Putin on a silver platter, give Russia intel on Ukrainian positions, if Putin promises Trump another hotel in St. Petersberg

    • @Valiguss
      @Valiguss 6 месяцев назад +2

      @@michaelramon2411it will be part of it, it always is but most people aren’t informed or engaged enough to care about foreign policy and to let it sway their vote

  • @r.a.acosta6528
    @r.a.acosta6528 6 месяцев назад +132

    The war fatigue crowd in Europe (especially) and the rest of the world needs to be made aware that this isn't going to end in Ukraine if Russia doesn't lose this. And it will eventually reach their home front.
    These people basically have the same stance as the "Just let Hitler take Czechoslovakia, we don't want this to escalate" crowd of the late 1930s.

    • @Ag3nt0fCha0s
      @Ag3nt0fCha0s 6 месяцев назад +31

      Good point. Wasn’t satisfied with Crimea

    • @jackthorton10
      @jackthorton10 6 месяцев назад +23

      On that we agree, we fell for this before, we are not gonna let some isolationist fools take us on a merry go round ride of “Peace in our Time” charades

    • @Alex-lg6nz
      @Alex-lg6nz 6 месяцев назад +14

      The problem with your argument, is the fact that Ukraine can't win this war and Russia can't really lose it.

    • @r.a.acosta6528
      @r.a.acosta6528 6 месяцев назад +19

      @Alex-lg6nz When I say "lose" in regards to Russia, it means a return to the 1992 borders of Ukraine. And that is very possible.

    • @smokedbeefandcheese4144
      @smokedbeefandcheese4144 6 месяцев назад +12

      It’s not the 1930s. They’ve already lost a lot of their equipment just attacking Ukraine I don’t think they have enough to carry out a European invasion. especially considering that would activate article 5. either way a good amount of the money involved in this isn’t even European it’s American. And the Americans have an ocean to keep them safe.

  • @danob9869
    @danob9869 6 месяцев назад

    @perunAU I hope you are happy... You made my head explode with this big but spot on analysis.

  • @richardburgess8657
    @richardburgess8657 6 месяцев назад +1

    Simply the best presentations on myriad aspects of the war in Ukraine. Thank you.

  • @McMxxCiV
    @McMxxCiV 6 месяцев назад +21

    I want to express once again my appreciation for what an insane workhorse you are. The combination of your upload schedule and research quality is virtually unmatched. And hey, I'm listening on professional studio monitors and there's nothing wrong with the sound quality. Thanks again for your efforts in providing insights I haven't found anywhere else.

  • @morten3465
    @morten3465 6 месяцев назад +195

    For me (European) there is no doubt or hesitation about this war. Russia must lose or we lose catastrophically within the foreseeable future. So I will vote accordingly.

    • @shubankersharma4013
      @shubankersharma4013 6 месяцев назад +4

      What does that mean Russia losing? And how do you think Russia will look at losing?

    • @MuhammadRidwan-pe7ny
      @MuhammadRidwan-pe7ny 6 месяцев назад

      1991 : Destroyed Iraq for invading neighbor
      2003 : Destroyed Iraq again for having nuclear program, courtesy of lies from Raytheon Boeing etc for more war fund.
      2022 : Russia, a nuclear power invade neighbor. NATO Sent less than 500 tanks and no jet fighter AT ALL.
      talk about cowardice LOL.
      I pray from the bottom of my heart that millions of Europeans and American will "live" to stop Russian aggression.

    • @63Limar
      @63Limar 6 месяцев назад

      And why do you discard an option when neither side wins or loses and then Putin dies, there is no other authority to have a chance to usurp power like him in the future and shit is calming down?

    • @garythecyclingnerd6219
      @garythecyclingnerd6219 6 месяцев назад +23

      @@shubankersharma4013Russia losing is going back to either the 2013 borders of the 2019 borders, with reparations. This won’t happen without Putin being deposed. Unfortunately I foresee the West losing interest by spring ‘24, and Ukraine not existing by Christmas’25

    • @pieterfaes6263
      @pieterfaes6263 6 месяцев назад +36

      You could put it another way. Either we send our aid now, or be forced to send our children/siblings later. (When the 'master strategist' believes Article 5 won't be enforced.)

  • @tinayang3845
    @tinayang3845 6 месяцев назад

    Awesome episode, well done again. Cheers.

  • @AlgaeNymph
    @AlgaeNymph 6 месяцев назад +2

    I feel a little better after viewing this. It's also something I feel safe sending to Mom, so thank you for that as well.

  • @Ayns.L14A
    @Ayns.L14A 6 месяцев назад +4

    thanks Perun

  • @ph6560
    @ph6560 6 месяцев назад +38

    Perun is certainly a sober and important voice concerning the war in Ukraine and the *_actual_* circumstances that surround it. Today's episode was particular brilliant that elegantly cleared up a previously ambiguous topic for many. *_Hail Perun!_*

  • @mattblom3990
    @mattblom3990 6 месяцев назад

    Love a Perun episode that doesn't just touch on defense economics (and psychology affecting it) but IS mostly defense economics.

  • @andrewgraves4026
    @andrewgraves4026 6 месяцев назад

    Thank you so much for your great work. You make a difference!

  • @BigFoote2024
    @BigFoote2024 6 месяцев назад +12

    Hands down the best, most nuanced and in depth channel. Today's offering is the best yet. Honestly, I don't know how you have the time and resources to offer and analyze the information. Truely top notch! I feel lucky to have this information at my finger tips. I hope decision makers are listening, they sure as hell should be!!! Keep up the great work!!!

  • @msurkan1
    @msurkan1 6 месяцев назад +85

    The irony is that if western support was beyond doubt then Russia would want to end the war as soon as possible, giving large concessions. It is the wavering support for Ukraine itself that drags the war out, making it far more costly in lives and equipment than necessary.

    • @danielhill9080
      @danielhill9080 6 месяцев назад

      You're in denial. Russia have won this war of attrition convincingly, there's nothing the West could give, or have left to give Ukraine, that could change the outcome on the battlefield.

    • @fehzorz
      @fehzorz 6 месяцев назад

      There is a silver lining - the more Russia over invests in this war, the longer it will take for them to recover and become a threat again

    • @tapsavteline4568
      @tapsavteline4568 6 месяцев назад +9

      Classic sentence si vis pacem pare bellum holds True. If you appear weak - you invite war

    • @davidrossa4125
      @davidrossa4125 6 месяцев назад +11

      If only europe had maintained a proper military posture before the war, so it would not have happened at all. That would have been the cheapest option.

    • @tapsavteline4568
      @tapsavteline4568 6 месяцев назад +5

      @@davidrossa4125 personally i think that is what should absolutely be done yesterday - huge increase in produktion in Europe would allow us to focus countering china

  • @gregwatkins2525
    @gregwatkins2525 6 месяцев назад +1

    Thanks man always appreciate the depth and intelligence of your commentary look forward to your next one Slava Ukraine

  • @Arcgateway
    @Arcgateway 6 месяцев назад +1

    Simply the best analytics. With love from UA

  • @breaddboy
    @breaddboy 6 месяцев назад +6

    31:20 honestly props for making a defenestration joke

    • @changingform250
      @changingform250 6 месяцев назад +1

      It was a terrible dad joke, and should have gone out the window in editing.

  • @danielpeirson3071
    @danielpeirson3071 6 месяцев назад +5

    Another fantastic vid Aussie. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression

  • @garyoconnor6131
    @garyoconnor6131 5 месяцев назад

    That was exceptional. So much packed into one hour.

  • @thomasbernecky2078
    @thomasbernecky2078 6 месяцев назад +1

    Many thanks again, Perun.

  • @shawnameri2660
    @shawnameri2660 6 месяцев назад +98

    The US can exhaust Russian war machine for decades to come by spending relative Pennies to its own overall military budget and give old equipment,ent sitting in storage. Keep going.

    • @alexander.nz13611
      @alexander.nz13611 6 месяцев назад +29

      Do you realise it’s the Ukrainian people who are paying with their lives for this sort of arrangement? It seems all sides in this conflict are morally bankrupt in varying degrees, it’s honestly quite sickening.

    • @tocreatee3585
      @tocreatee3585 6 месяцев назад +5

      easy for you to say.
      what about civilians?

    • @Temislaw
      @Temislaw 6 месяцев назад +18

      Did the Pentagon tell you this? Here in Russia everything is fine; the production of weapons, including high-precision weapons, has increased several times. There was, perhaps, no better period for the growth of the military industry in the entire modern history of Russia.
      I can only thank the US for their "efforts"🙃

    • @duncanluciak5516
      @duncanluciak5516 6 месяцев назад +1

      The Cold War method. War as economic drain.

    • @qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5
      @qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5 6 месяцев назад

      @@alexander.nz13611 It doesn't change the fact that Russia is aggressor here. And Kremlin broke every international law in the book.

  • @MM22966
    @MM22966 6 месяцев назад +16

    One aspect of "War Exhaustion" is what standard of living a people enjoyed before/during the war. If they are use to living in poor/harsh conditions, greater hardship is easier to endure because the expectations are lower. North Vietnam endured YEARS of conflict & massive casualties because it was use to it, and its people mostly lived in ways the average American hadn't seen since the Civil War. Not saying they are "tougher" or we were softer, but it does effect population endurance.
    Or put another way, as an Afghan mujahadeen once said of the Soviets, "They have the watches but we have the time".
    I don't know who is coming from a harsher place here, though. Both the Ukrainians (pre-war) and the Russians did not have a great standard of living outside their major cities, and Slavs have a deserved reputation for putting up with some serious maulk to win.

    • @atomf9143
      @atomf9143 6 месяцев назад

      "Maulk"? What does that mean?

    • @Chisel_Chest
      @Chisel_Chest 6 месяцев назад

      @@atomf9143 sounds like poo.

  • @colinbeckworth19
    @colinbeckworth19 6 месяцев назад

    As ever mate, kudos to your intelligent and insightful analysis - and for calling out piss poor journalism that plays fast and loose with statistics. BTW sound quality did not detract at all from great content.

  • @davidknapp5403
    @davidknapp5403 5 месяцев назад +1

    Absolutely love your mix of wit with facts as reality presents them.

  • @davidniemi4051
    @davidniemi4051 6 месяцев назад +9

    Thanks for the great video as usual. One comment that I often hear from Ukrainian "tubers is that they know exactly what it would be like under Putler's rule: Holodomor 2.

    • @buddyrojek9417
      @buddyrojek9417 6 месяцев назад +1

      This is why all Ukrainian people are fighting , because they do t want to live like Russians

  • @nixielee
    @nixielee 6 месяцев назад +5

    How exactly would Ukraine take back all of their territory? Western support will be gone soon enough, but even with that support, Russia is now geared for a long military conflict and production is going up. Wishful thinking is all well and good, but Ukraine has lost it's best troops and it won't get better from here.

  • @coryjones4040
    @coryjones4040 6 месяцев назад +1

    Holy crap, I made it to Monday night before watching a Perun video.
    THAT... Is war fatigue.

  • @Thunder_Child
    @Thunder_Child 6 месяцев назад

    Thankyou for the analysis. Objective and meaningful as always.

  • @Gorboduc
    @Gorboduc 6 месяцев назад +3

    "In all wars, the victor is he who can believe for a quarter hour longer than his enemy that he is not beaten." - Georges Clemenceau

  • @TheCSClassroom
    @TheCSClassroom 6 месяцев назад +7

    I'd like to see a video on the history and the current state of the domestic Ukrainian arms industry, including collaborations with Western firms. Seems like a lot of interesting stuff is happening there (examples include drone production and a Rheinmetall production facility)

  • @timothymachen687
    @timothymachen687 6 месяцев назад

    Once again, excellent presentation and analysis!!

  • @anotherplatypus
    @anotherplatypus 6 месяцев назад +1

    It's like listening to a good audiobook... odd thing is you're talking about current things instead of ancient history... it's amazing keep it up

  • @Partstim
    @Partstim 6 месяцев назад +131

    American here; it is the bitterest of ironies that the same party that wants to criticize Biden for abandoning Afghanistan to the Taliban is also demanding that we abandon Ukraine to Russia.

    • @davidshea6272
      @davidshea6272 6 месяцев назад +2

      And, remember, it was Trump that ordered the pull out and then handed the mess to Biden.

    • @Ag3nt0fCha0s
      @Ag3nt0fCha0s 6 месяцев назад +12

      Just politics

    • @Partstim
      @Partstim 6 месяцев назад +31

      @@Ag3nt0fCha0s ....... with another nation's fate and thousands of lives at stake.

    • @Nostripe361
      @Nostripe361 6 месяцев назад

      I’ve been hearing more than few jokes about it being because those republicans are soft on Russia cause they admire it.
      With it being the dream of Trump to be like Putin

    • @tarstarkusz
      @tarstarkusz 6 месяцев назад +16

      Another American here, we should have never invaded Afghanistan and we should definitely stop warmongering in Europe.

  • @Shachza
    @Shachza 6 месяцев назад +5

    2:48
    "As we covered in our video on war termination, most VIDEOS don't end with total, absolute decisive victory for one side or the other."
    -Perun 2023, getting aggressive with the video popularity algorithm. XD

  • @andriianashovam7070
    @andriianashovam7070 6 месяцев назад

    Another great explanation of a complex topic. Thanks a lot. My best regards and high praises.

  • @sodnpoo
    @sodnpoo 6 месяцев назад

    Love your channel!!

  • @Ag3nt0fCha0s
    @Ag3nt0fCha0s 6 месяцев назад +5

    Perun:
    Posts fascinating in depth videos beyond the understanding of many every day of rest.
    Some people (apparently): TeH SuOnD KwAlItEa CuDd BeE bEtTaH…”

  • @colinlow87
    @colinlow87 6 месяцев назад +6

    It’s time!!!

  • @casfren
    @casfren 6 месяцев назад

    as always great video. commenting for the algo's engagement.

  • @aliasalias8433
    @aliasalias8433 6 месяцев назад +1

    Very good Video, like everytime.