Wagner's Mutiny - what it means for Putin's Russia (and Coups 101)
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- Sponsored by Private Internet Access: www.piavpn.com/Perun
The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard.
Despite being closely watched by people around the world - much about the mutiny remains unknown - from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end.
In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & Comments:
As noted in the video - I don't know the details of what just happened (and likely neither do you) and so the analysis and timeline included here is necessarily based on the best information available to me at time of recording. Future revisions will likely be necessar
All other normal caveats (from information quality to 'this is not financial advice' to non-reliance apply as always
Relevant reading & sources:
Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne - Journal of Peace Research - Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset
www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-th...
Prigozhin charged with mutiny (TASS)
tass.com/russia/1637475
Peskov denying responsibility for Wagner in Africa
www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0...
Putin backing MoD on Wagner contracts
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Reporting on Surovikin
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6...
Zolotov on Rosgvardia getting heavy
meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/27/...
Reporting on Wagner vs the VKS
www.popularmechanics.com/mili...
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
On the response to Wagner troops
/ 1674163772364128258
Putin blasts Wagner as traitors
www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
Bulletin of Atomic science on the Wagner nuclear risk
thebulletin.org/2023/06/what-...
Reporting on Prigozhin speaking
www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ru...
Included tweet by Tatarigami (details cut off by cropping)
/ 1673416906299043846
The many Coup accusations of Belarus
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashe...
Footage of Wagner in Rostov-on-Don
/ 1672424964086169600
Rumour of early warning of the plot
www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/wo...
Rusian propagandist on flexible legal norms
/ 1673113539509092356v
NATO statement on Belarus and Wagner
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6...
Included Anatol Lieven article
www.theguardian.com/commentis...
As normal - my policy is not to link directly to Telegram channels belonging to groups like Wagner or Russian military bloggers as these often contain extremist or prohibited content
Flight tracker of Putin's jet
/ 1
Prigozhin on defending Belgorod
www.euronews.com/2023/06/03/w....
Reporting on the Wagner taking a senior officer captive
www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukrain...
I also extend my thanks to all those on twitter whose content is included here
A special thanks to Tex of BPL for his help hunting down some relevant data.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - The Wagner Mutiny
00:01:56 - What Am I Talking About
00:04:16 - Rumours & Speculation
00:04:58 - Coups 101
00:10:39 - Rules For A Good One
00:17:11 - The Russian Attempt
00:31:02 - The Days After
00:33:03 - Could It Have Worked
00:36:38 - Conspiracy Theories
00:39:47 - Key Observations
00:47:20 - The Impact Going Forward?
01:04:57 - Conclusions
01:06:15 - Channel Update
Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun
Well, that was quite the road trip wasn't it?
The reality is that while it'll be a long, long time before we discover all the details about what happened during those very eventful hours - I think it's worth looking at what we know and asking some critical questions about the mutiny, its chances of success, and what separates simple mutiny from a successful or unsuccessful coup.
I think it's fairly safe to expect that Prigozhin's companies are probably not going to survive/get many juicy MoD contracts going forward however.
Hope you all enjoy.
Can you talk about war profiteering?
Thanks perun
WAKE and BAKE time!!
Thank you Perun, you make such great content we enjoy mucho
I actually enjoyed the VPN promo. 🤣
Pretty sure I'll enjoy the rest, but I'm only a few minutes in.
Thanks for offering us context as always. Even if you can't tell us exactly what happened, I suspect you'll do a better job than nearly anyone to equip us to analyse the ongoing chaos ourselves.
"So let's talk about how to overthrow a government." -Perun reaching the natural conclusion of his character arc.
lol it’s a Russian tradition tbh
He's been brainwashing us this whole time! Here I thought I was being informed!
"Please don't do coups." - Also Perun
I'm getting mixed signals here buddy!
How long until he's the new leader of Emutopia
Perun is going to rule some larg wild South Asian island some day. I sense a coup brewing.
Your fellow Russian comment section dweller here. Just a couple of things to note here:
- Prigozhin's possible mutiny was called out by Strelkov over a month before it happened, no one paid attention
- Everyone in Russia followed this whole thing, I swear to god, that's the first time I've actually seen everyone talking about something political
- Prigozhin probably demonstrated not only a staggering amount of apathy towards both putin's regime and all possible bloodthirsty actors within it, but also the importance of administrative weight' within the system.
- Most people I've spoken to didn't really care if they would burn kremlin or rublyovka.
What a shitfest it was, and what a time to be alive, truly
More up-votes needed.
👍👍👍🙂
Other way around, all mine peers were to go and fight against Wagner if needed
Is it really “Prigozhin” from
My understanding he’s a figurehead and middleman between the Kremlin and Wagner and not the one pulling all the strings
How are most people you talk too feeling about the validity of the war in general now? Are people who believed all the propaganda and pro war now unsure or still the same?
In the words of a fellow internet commenter: "In a fight between Wagner and the Russian MoD, I'm rooting for the fight."
In a fight between Wagner, and the Russian M.O.D., there can surely be only one winner - Ukraine.
"Sometimes stupid is just stupid"
Such an underrated sentence.
Occam's razor!
I feel like this statement needs to be drilled into the heads of conspiracy nutters
On the first go, I'd think of Hanlon's razor (Do not ascribe to malice that which can be suitably explained by stupidity ). But I suppose that stripping it all down to the (Ruscist) bear necessities, stupidity IS all you need?
My statement to the big bosses in government I worked for was, " I can't fix stupid". This was pretty appropriate for many weird ideas that percolated up through contractors or minor bureaucrats.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 I really ******* like that - I hope I remember it...
I knew you'd call this what it was, a mutiny.
Although, I, myself, prefer: "special military insubordination".
Well played
take my like
Excellent! It’s all about the wording when the underlying intention is to impart little actual information. 😂
hhhhh
Ohhhhh I like this one!! 😂❤
The difference between history and fiction is that fiction usually has to make sense.
What do you mean, this was not a surprise to me at all.
All of it made a lot of sense and I would've done similar things if I was the leader of Wagner, and a racist dickhead like he is.
The difference between history and fiction is that fiction usually gives you all the information from both sides by the end.
@@Cowboyking92 Well to be fair, fiction usually just makes one side blatantly evil,
so it's not hard to explain the information from both sides by the end. To explain why Sauron is in a wrong, you don't need to debunk Sauron propaganda.
@@petavaldman2150 Fair point but it isn’t really applicable to this situation since one side IS blatantly evil..
The joke is: Two years ago, Russian army was the second strongest in the world. Last year, it was second in Ukraine. This year, it is the second one in Russia.
😆
"and when a foreign power decides that your land is in fact their land, your military can communicate your dispute of their claim in the universal language of high explosive."
One of Peruns sentences of all time.
@@KoffinKat what I said was a satirizing version of "the greatest _ of all time".
There is a lot of criticism of the Russian military, but their summer offensive to capture Rostov-on-Don was impressively quick and with little causalities.
Russian MILITARY capturing Rostov? Say what? Rostov was always Russian. Unless you mean WAGNER, which definitely isn't the Russan military.
@@stischer47 putin himself call it straight. Russian goverment is literally pay to wagner group for years. In some degree PMC wagner is not a private, but goverment-funded, which make it GMC or in other words an army.
Eh, they kinda just had to fight some third rate military for it.
@@stischer47Well that went right over your head
@@stischer47wooosh
Premature evacuation and electoral dysfunction are common problems with older autocrats.
Underrated comment. Well played.
Perfect. I’m stealing it. But I’ll give you a byline.👍🏻
Wow, I think you win youtube comments.
It took me a second to understand this comment, but I love it.
Keep fighting the good fight😃
44:02 The road to Moscow was empty because the backbone of defense, the T-34, was still in maintenance after the May parade
What a shame. If the T-34 was present it surely would have wiped out the wagner convoy.
I think you could destroy a modern tank with a large swarm of T34s.
Cannon is a cannon after all.
@@operaatio5117”If I have enough T-34s, I can potentially win. Eventually.”
@@operaatio5117 well, you'd propably have a better chance to use the practical aplication of the human wave, tank version and just make the modern tank run out of its less than 40 rounds, but technically yes
@@tomasmisek5598 Well if you rush a enemy tank, with 50 T34s, the enemy can't shoot them all, and if the T34s can hit their shots, you could make the modern tank almost blind.
“I don’t know what happened and neither do you.” Classic. More sources should such humility and honesty.
They all HAVE to say something, saying "i don't know" is taboo, they lose ratings if they don't appear confident even when talking shit.
Plottwist:
Putin watches Perun for intelligence updates.
Didn't stop him for going on and on and on.
Putin's gone from internet strongman to the living embodiment of the "everything is fine, nothing to see here" meme.
They wanted a bloody massacre in Russia, but it didn't work out. It is very sad, very sad, because I so wanted a civil war, and bad Putin did not allow it, so he is weak. It's so European))))
…while wearing the “ emperor’s new ( see through ) Cloak ….💙💛💙
@@mike4480 Your satire is bad and you should feel bad.
Putin's been a shell since forever.
He's even gone from "don't come near me until you've had a blood test and bathed yourself in bleach" to meeting and greeting the crowds and kissing teenage girls on the tops of their heads (which, I must admit, I had thought was an exclusively Joe Biden thing, until I saw it).
@@DanielWalker-jo2kr The difference being the Russian population loves Putin and are Patriots. Joe Biden just rigged the election and Americans went on with their fake democracy and totally failed society with 30 trillion in debt, open borders, and millions of homeless drug addicts.
Wagner: We just began our occupation of the largest city we have been able to take during this special military operation.
Putin: Great! What city?
Wagner: Rostov.
Putin: …
They wanted a bloody massacre in Russia, but it didn't work out. It is very sad, very sad, because I so wanted a civil war, and bad Putin did not allow it, so he is weak. It's so European))))
Russia's summer offensive
For Putin's last response use the "Wait, what?" meme.
It wasn't the true Rostov. It was just Rostov-on-Don in the South.
Wagner: We are revolting.
World: That’s not news.
At this rate Bandai-Namco is going to start demanding royalties from the Russians, this entire war feels like the plot of an Ace Combat game, complete with unlocking weapons and aircraft, to the Mercenaries who rise up in rebellion against their leaders to seize nuclear weapons. If Prigozhin starts babbling about a world without borders I'm gonna start having some serious questions about simulation theory.
And the main protagonist would be the Ghost of Kyiv.
It also has the Ace Combat classic of the entire war being the defender making a comeback from the brink.
I believe one of the game composers wrote a theme song for Ghost of Kyiv in the first week of the war. Man reality sure feels weird.
So when do we get two guys having an Arial jousting competition involving a random F-16 and a Su-35
Believe it or not, at some point before the coup Prigojin actually tried to stage himself as an adamant defender of private property, publically stating that the wine factory his "PMC" had captured in Bakhmut should be returned to its Ukrainian owners, because, I cite this verbatim, "private property is sacred". Which is one of the reasons why so many believe he was actually after seizing the throne for himself, not just getting an upper hand in his rivalry with Shoygu and Gerasimov. He was performing an electoral campaign of sorts before the coup started
Perun asking folk not to stage coups to overthrow their government is downright epic...
It's a standard disclaimer, he's got so many subscribers there's a chance that one of us somewhere might try it.
Don’t doup coups, kids.
He's only talking about the democratically elected ones though. So, if an election turns out not to be legitimate...
For every potential coup member watching, there are ten FBI.
@@ericvulgateI wouldn't bet on that 😂
“Our rush to Moscow is what the push to Kyiv should of looked like”
Damn, and he’s not wrong.
Should have
They both failed so they were the same. Focus.
Well.. Its kinda what it looked like with one little exception: There were Ukranians in the way.
The advanced straight along a road. That's it. Wagner did roughly the same meeting only a fel helicopters and and some light units.
So in a sense: Prighozin demonstrated the russian incompetence by doing roughly what russia did as its opening move in Ukraine and was managing to do it achieving success.
Push to Kyiv was even faster, and Russia get much closser, from 3 sides too.
@@iMost067 Compared to the distance of Rostov to Moscow and the Belarussian border to Kyiv. It is another testament to Russian incompetence.
"If a foreign power decides some of your land is in fact their land, well your military can communicate your dispute of their claim in the universal language of high-explosive" -Perun(2023)
Nice
“Article 5 means if someone goes in for the grapple with Estonia, Uncle Sam is coming in off the bench with a chair, and Uncle Sam carries a *really big* chair”
I have a graduate degree and I’ve rarely experienced professors with such a tight grasp of their material.
The only person WORSE then Pufin the Poisoner would be Pufin's '#1 Dirty Hit-Man' AKA Wagner War-Crime B&stard.
They both deserve to kick & swing in the Hague.
They should both go to the Frontline & die in a 'Stormfront' Team!
These Old War-Crime B&stards have condemned Russia for +100 years!
They're threatening to burn the entire world because 'Ukraine won't give us more land & people then we already have, EVEN THOUGH they cannot support the land & people THEY ALREADY HAVE"!
How can you reason with such Idiot Monsters?
You DON'T!
You kill their Young Men until all that's left is their Old Men & then they... what?
Hide in their Mansion-Bunkers until they die of Old Age?
How do we know they wouldn't do something unimaginably STUPID 'because they lost & this is all they can manage, Doom the world to Superweapon Devastation'?
The universal language of high explosives, illustrated dictionary
Ka-boom? 🤔❓
Ka-boom! 🧐
KaBoom, Kaboom 😱
Kaboom😢☠
@@Frost5al Uncle Sam carries around a depleted uranium recliner
Some great quotes in this.
Perun: "don't do coups"
"When you finally come to the conclusion that giving a hardened criminal a private army of hardened criminals was not in fact a good idea afterall..."
"In other words, one of the responses to the threat posed by the parallel military structure represented by Wagner, is to build up an additional parallel military structure represented by Rosgvardya."
„Sometimes stupid is just stupid.“
Let it be known that on this day Prigozhin was killed in a plane accident caused by rapid and spontaneous cabin decompression. Truly no one could have seen it coming.
Perun's jokes are, as usual, top notch, but the joke about using Russia using Wagner in Africa to avoid demonetization was simply incredible.
Yes - the head of government being ousted by a lettuce has only ever been done in the UK.
@@peterturner8766 we in the US had an orange mango for a while
The more of your videos I watch Perun, the more I start to see a certain glow around this channel.
If only Wagner had hired Perun as a military advisor...
Heh heh, tho I took it as they did things that would de-monetize this video if he said every thing they do and have done there
Ah, it's that time of the week where we all consume a defence economics powerpoint for recreation. We are normal people, I swear.
Sure, just make sure you don't mix up your spreadsheets.
Totally normal.
Perun: "Coup 101"
Viewers: Yeah, let's goooo!
Perun: "I just want to State for the record that I'm not encouraging anyone to go out there and overthrow their democratically elected government"
Viewers: Oh, ok...
I loved "Please don't stage a Coup."
4:59 really got my attention.
And probably applies to at least 60% of the US rural Population.
Well ukraine overthrew their elected government
@@ari_a2764you mean they protested against Yanukovich and his status as a Russian meat puppet, at which point he bailed out and returned to Moscow.
The big takeaway for me from all of this is that you could probably drive a Stryker brigade from Warsaw to the Moscow suburbs and the most resistance you'd encounter would be the traffic lights. Russia apparently has nothing meaningful left for internal security.
Last year, a commentator on the Telegraph Channel, repeated the claim that 97% of the Russian Army, were in Ukraine. I replied that this must surely mean that even somewhere like Tajikistan, could invade them.
It seems that I overestimated Russia's defences.
Well when you send most of your soldiers to take another country and only leave the ones defending your air bases is really hard to counter political disidence, renember the Pro-ukranian insurgents.
no, the direct road going through Belarus. And you wouldn't be a Putin's friend so pilot won't hesitate to drop a bomb or few.
@@Iv4BezAn alternate route would be to take that Stryker Brigade, take it through the Baltics in a joy ride and smash through near Pskov, drive towards Moscow that way and thus avoid Belarus and be in the city hopefully in 144 to 168 hours.
From what is public knowledge at this time, I think Prigozhin was heavily playing the "Good Tsar Bad Boyar" card. His criticisms of the war were about special interests and looting oligarchs, but stopped short of directly condemning Putin, at most accusing him of being poorly advised. This is a time-honoured thing in Russia, taking something the scale of Bloody Sunday to dispel the image of the leader being infallible. I think Prigozhin began his thunder run in the expectations that Putin would round up Shoigu and Gerasimov, if not others, then as the Good Tsar thank his loyal boyar for pointing out where he'd been misled. But he miscalculated when Putin directly denounced the mutiny, calling it criminal and so on. Which was in turn a terrible political move for Putin, because if you announce a pardon for people you all but declared outlaws 24 hours before, that's a major rebuff of the all powerful image an authoritarian regime usually cultivates, and is hard to square that circle, not for lack of trying. In a sense it looks like they both bluffed while holding trash cards, and as a result they both lose.
Igor Girkin has been scathing in his criticism of Putin’s recent actions.
Girkin: “Putin, by offering amnesty to Wagner, is telling everyone; you can go ahead and commit mutiny, to start an armed rebellion, and if you fail, it’s ok, you won’t be punished. Because I, President Putin, am a spineless woodlouse who’d immediately flee to ST Petersburg.”
It dovetails about the setup of this whole conflict though.. Putin&Co only went for Ukraine in a 50:50 bid to safe their regime status in Russia over Russians. They would have never need to do this if their hold on power was as strong as it looked like. This conflict always was about Putin&Co vs Russians (with Ukraine being the unfortunate innocent bystander) and this conflict will end up where it belongs.. it's always just been a matter of time (months, years, decades).
It's interesting how very premodern it was. So many noble rebellions piously swore that they're *totally* not revolting against their sworn and anointed liege, just against his corrupt and malicious officials. War of the Roses is outright comical in the way Henry VI kept getting "rescued" by different factions. Of course any worthwhile king knew that if someone comes in, kicks out your government and installs himself as your right hand man, you aren't really in control anymore. I suppose Putin also knew that. His decision of course kind of backfired, as you describe.
@@CMY187 Girkin says a lot of things. For example obliterating Ukraine in a day and then move onto a war with the US.
@@joansparky4439 Thats just dumb. Read that comment out loud, because it makes 0 sense.
I couldn’t stop laughing at the notion of Kadyrov’s excuse,sorry guys our forces are stuck in a traffic jam so we cannot get to there to protect you” 🤣🤣🤣
I Imagine Kadyrovs getting into cars and just waiting to see who will win, while watching Tik Toks.
@@grzegorzswist They are too busy making Tik Toks to watch Tik Toks.
Russia needs a bunch of competent troops to defend Moscow. Here were a large number that were willing to come do that, if only they weren't stuck in a traffic jam. Can you imagine Moscow surrounded by Kadyrov's troops to "defined" it?
@@cubefreak123 That's easy for you to say, you're not the one that would get a ticket! Imagine how much it would cost in traffic fines if all of Kadyrov's forces got booked - he's obviously not a rich man, I mean look at that haircut.
@@lwilton The confusion and sheer terror for the regular Russian would be astonishing. It'd be an ironic twist of fate to have heavily armed Chechens surround and "save" Moscow.
27:44 As a veteran tank commander of Erusea that fought during the Usean Coup D'etat, Continental War, and the Lighthouse War, I can attest that pilots do truly stand apart from the rest of the human race.
Perun is one of the only youtubers that has half a million subscribers and within 1 day of posting the video has 400k views. His viewers are persistant in watching his videos in mass. You dont see that often.
You seldom see things presented so factually, so briefly, with very little bias, and with honest to God humor. Quite good humor, at that. Much needed levity for a topic as serious and dire as this one.
To top it all off, it's a PowerPoint presentation. So you don't actually have to eyeball the video 100% of the time. You can listen to it like a podcast.
@@planofman8599 i listen to the videos while I'm at work so it does work like a podcast of some sort. It's refreshing to have a non bias view going over incredibly important strategies and implementations countries use during war time.
Especially impressive because they're all an hour long!
>Ukrainian army intelligence chief Budanov pictured with a new haircut
>Pringle starts a mutiny
Coincidence? I think not.
One of the craziest thing I learned from this video is that Wagner is still recruiting in Russia.
That's pretty crazy
They stopped. Apparently for a month, but who knows.
@@Glumpsy The video states that the recruitments are still ongoing. Maybe they have since been paused.
@@Simon39759 Seen the reports today. They were ongoing during the recording, not anymore.
@@Glumpsy Full up. They've got all the manpower they need to start ruining the west's day again, I'd wager.
@@Glumpsy Thanks for the update!
I hadn't seen that info.
I think, one thing the mutiny clearly showed is that Wagner was unable to generate significant immediate support. I guess it's because of how depoliticised the society is. Everyone was watching, everyone was chatting, but next to no regular civilian felt personally addressed by the events. Like watching a game of sports you're not emotionally invested in.
And on the topic of security kerfuffles around Moscow: yes it's a bad look, but I wouldn't step on too high of a horse thinking of fairly recent events like 01/06/22. The element of surprise seems to have been in effect and powerfully so.
Exactly 💯
Things like this happen a lot in the third world. People are trained to not care and are disarmed so they can't do anything.
Then factions take turns couping or purging each other.
I mean the people aren't stupid, they know Putin isn't doing great in this war but If they have any idea of how bad the war is really going, they likely don't buy that Prigozhin is somehow some nicer, better saint for the Russian people. Just another dictator who will be just as bad if he wins, why should they give a fuck who does?
@@robertjones-iv7wq "oblivious" applies as well.
Prigozhin has been upgraded from "unlikely to take any interview requests" to " *extremely* unlikely to take any interview requests."
An aborted coup is also known as a Chicken Coup.
Or otherwise laying an egg
Ba dum tiss
Putsch. Perfect term for failed coups, from Hitler to GKChP.
@@KasumiRINA I believe in german Putsch just means coup, is it different in english?
Prigozhin coups like a dove.
I imagine most Australians dream about driving a Mad Max style convoy to Canberra and seizing Australia's parliament and weapons caches. Well done on going from a gaming channel to being one of the most trusted voices on the war mate. You often hit the "trending in Australia" page, which means the nation has a huge appetite for hour long PowerPoint presentations on war analysis.
I would also recommend Upper Echelon if you enjoy Perun, seems a lot of good channels sprang forth from gaming channels.
That would be the day, what a lovely day.
Sadly you Aussies became submissive sheep to the whims of your corrupt government. For did you not turn in your firearms for that false peace for Gun Control?
Yeah, but Aussies just can't be arsed. Probably a good thing really.
Canberra can't be taken by a convoy. It has too many roundabouts as defensive formations.
Wagner Mercs definitely need to sign those contracts. Imagine tens of thousands of experienced soldiers distributed through the military, disgruntled, because they just lost one job, having just taken a pay cut.
Especially in a military without a strong NCO corps, where experience literally is the measure of enlisted authority, how could that possibly go wrong?
Had the same thought: What if we see a Wagner-coup / - mutiny 2.0 in some weeks or months, but this time from within the official military. Ex-Wagnerites spread in different army-units, recruiting more normal soldiers for the cause.
those who didn't were relocated to Belarus into exile. Now they are acting as sitting ducks in big camps for Ukraine to attack - which will drag Belarus military into conflict on Russia's side.
Imagine those same troops going to live in Belarus, possibly with a fair amount of the hardware the MOD wants them to give back. Their owner has been loud about the whole Ukrainian war being a royal cock-up, and has pulled the troops off the front lines. He doesn't want them fighting there, and the MOD doesn't want them fighting there, except as individuals that can be sent to various places. My conclusion is that Wagner isn't going to go back into Ukraine, it is too costly for them. So what are they going to do? Maybe Lukashenko can now apply some leverage against Putin trying to take over Belarus? I can see the Union State possibly dissolving.
@@dimas3829I doubt Belarus and its 20,000 man army would go to war in Ukraine over attacks on some Wagner camps. Lukashenko has reasons for avoiding this war at all costs. First, Belarus can’t really contribute much, but would be basically guaranteed to have its army (and only defense against Ruzzia) turned into fertilizer. Second, it’s rumored that the Belarusian army would mutiny if ordered to enter the war, because they don’t particularly like Lukashenko/Putin or dislike Ukraine, and because they don’t want to die for a cause they don’t agree with. And if they mutiny, there’s not much Ruzzia can do to stop them as far as ground forces, because the Ruzzian army is tied up in Ukraine. I guess they could send in some Rosgvardia, but they’re no match for an actual military, and they’re obviously needed to stamp out dissent at home.
@@bluemarlin8138 not to mention that Poland and Lithuania have been waiting for an excuse to go take on Anyone. They would love an excuse to take out Lukashenko, and with Russia tied up in Ukraine, Lukashenko would be practically defenseless.
I love that moment Perun realized he might be influential enough to incite people to rebellion
Sedition is not cool. :P
This is another masterclass in dry humor. This was an absurd chain of events and Perun rose to the occasion with the usual Aussie wit. Bravo.
Hes a kiwi by the way , just saying
@@paxofpayne He says he's an Aussie.
Like at 4:59:
"OK, so for those of you who ever had at least a passing thought of overthrowing a government, wake up because this part's for you. We're gonna talk quickly about coups 101."
🤣🤣🤣
@@paxofpayne Not according to his profile: "
Description
An Australian covering the military industrial complex and national military investment strategy."
Or for that matter, his accent.😉
@@oldsarj he's says he's a kiwi expate words to those effects living working in aus think in he's secound vid and as a kiwi I get he's local joks .maybe our humour the same. .and agree with ya he's really smart on a lot levels
as Italian I have to say this:
"all the graves of italian condottieri from the 1300-1500 were spinning so much that they caused an earthquake"
🤣
Something tells me that italians in rome collectively woke up with nightmares of mercenaries sacking the city while the pope hides in castle St. Angelo
@@Paveway-chanWhich Pope? They had three at one point…🙂
@@grahamstrouse1165
Clement VII
All of the historians in the crowd upvote this comment.
That was a stunning breakdown. Your ability to take a complicated story and break it down and explain it in a sensible easy is epic.
The idea of refusing to roll out the tanks as a 'stylistic choice' - classic. Never change, Perun, never change ❤
"Don't do coup's" thank you for the clarification. Saved me a red face
You do coup.
Instructions unclear, now leader of small country... what was the next step? 😂
@@TurboHappyCar Prevent another coup.
It’s a warning for tronald dump fans who haven’t been locked up.
Don't do coups, stay in School, and eat your Vegetables
A road trip to Moscow is a very... let's say interesting way to describe what Wagner were doing
3 days to Kyiv turned into 24 hours to Moscow. We may not know every detail of what occurred during the mutiny but this is terrible optics for Putin.
Nothing happened, so it might as well be
@@madensmith7014 Nothing happened? A dozen troops from the Russian MoD were killed and several helicopters were shot down.
Not to mention Putin shat his pants at least half a dozen times.
@@priyan605 I’m still waiting for Medvedev to write a drunk tweet about how the Russians need to nuke half of the world to own the West. That will be the icing on the cake.
@@madensmith7014 The 2023 Tiannamen Square, Moscow edition
41:28 Those "street sweepers" looked totally unnatural, they were definitely some agents monitoring the situation. They acted as if they had zero awareness of the surroundings while also not looking drunk. I assure you, street sweepers in Russia don't get paid enough to just keep working and ignoring any possible danger.
It baffles my mind how you can do such extensive research in such a short notice. You truly are a blessing for youtube's audience.
I never thought I'd be watching a Perun video to develop my opinion on *actually current* current events. History in real time, etc. Well done.
Imagine my surprise on getting used to my gaming channel giving me detailed analysis of a current war
When Prigozhin declares he no longer wants to serve Emutopia you will see how this channel forms history
you shouldn't, he just pushes propaganda.
@@user-ot3wq2ru5d The only question I have for you is: Are you getting payed by Putin or Prigozhin right now?
@@zagreus5773 neither, but you're being played by main stream media and other propaganda outlets.
This was probably the most bizarre coup attempt I have heard of...
Ah, but you have heard of it...
There's alot of bizarre coup attempts historically lol
Prigozhin’s Bizarre adventure
There was one in Poland in 20. (appart from the 1926 May Coup).
So few colonels enter Prime Minister office with intent to arrest him and establish their rule.
The caretaker tells them the bureau is closet and angrily points the finger at the door. Colonels left and the coup fails.
True story.
How many coup attempts have you heard of?
What's your sample size?
Perun taking the 'Don't try this at home' thing to different heights.
"This relationship is at least 10% more toxic than your average office rivalry." I don't know man, I've seen some people who would put a hand grenade under their bosses' pillow if they thought they could get away with it.
Isn't this the fastest you've ever put a complete video together on a sudden new topic? O.o
That's really quick analysis
It is - but this felt like a rare and special circumstance.
@@PerunAU Fingers crossed there'll be a second attempt, one that won't lose their nerve on the cusp of throwing Russia into chaos.
Careful what you wish for...
@@nextinstitute7824 It'd be a net-positive for world stability. The nukes aren't going anywhere, and it'd result in a Russia who can no longer bully her neighbors.
@@RaptorJesus seriously nukes are ALREADY in wrong hands. Them infighting is objectively weakening their potential to attack everyone else.
Just wanted to say: I appreciate the way these videos open. Without any pointless intro or preamble, straight to it and no time wasted (like not even a split second).
I can't really say why I like it but it just works for me.
Because it respects your time and actually presents you what you wanted to see
I think my favourite part of this entire video is how casually he says "Alright, so that said, let's talk about how to effectively overthrow a government"
Dear Perun, Once again many thanks to the well developed and insightful piece of work, I know how many man hours this takes and I appreciate your efforts. I am very glad you made the comment of how utterly "distanced" the Russian Military was from this event, and perhaps even more telling, how completely uninterested the Russian people were ( and perhaps still are ). The RUclips Russian commentator Vlad Vexler has often noted, that one of the major reasons the Putin Russian State has the ability to act as it does is, is not only because it is, for all intents and purposes, it is a Mob State ( though I think the American Chicago Mob Boss Al Capone was a better organizer ) and has access to the vast resources of the FSB and local Police, but that he has created an "Unspoken agreement" understood between the Putin State and the Russian People, and that agreement is that I ( Putin ) will allow you partial political autonomy in your region, but more importantly I will allow you to live your lives as you wish, but you must be "totally disengaged" from internal and external politics, allowing me ( Putin ) to wield and stay in power as I see fit. So is it any wonder that the populations of Russian citizens merely "'selfied" the entire event, or watched from an wholly disengaged sidelines, they have no interest in whether Russian "wins" the war with Ukraine, or if the Putin Regime stays or falls, as long is it does not disturb their world and this agreement. This is why Putin is so fearful of adopting the hard liner Conservative position of adopting a policy of Mass Mobilization, because Putin ( and the Oligarchs ) know that this breaks the unspoken agreement.
Face up towards the selfie device is the new head burried in the sand.
Sending young men to die in Ukraine isn't exactly allowing them to live as they wish...
Left Canada for Ukraine a week ago. When you started these PowerPoints in Feb 2022 I never imagined I’d end up listening to them in Ukraine. What a journey it has been
Did you go to have a tour or what
Good luck
No combat just for humanitarian aid. No prior military experience so would be a liability on the battlefield
@@jaredmcfadden7793 Stay safe, mate
Best of luck, stay safe, thank you for helping Ukraine
All I can think of is the famous Russian Field Marshal Zhukov walking around the Kremlin in The Death Of Stalin like he owns the place. Fictionalized for comedic effect but he really did command the loyalty of the Soviet Army and was virtually untouchable even when Stalin was alive. In reality at best Beria managed to demote and push Zhukov away from the top table for a few years after WW2 but failed to fully dispose of him. Despite trying very hard. Soon after Zhukov returned to the upper echelons following Stalin's death. Khrushchev and Malenkov combined struggled to get rid of Beria, until Zhukov put his weight behind Khrushchev, forced Beria's MVD out and replaced them with the Army. That was the end of Beria. That's true power.
At the same time, Khrushchev whom was a war hero of the Battle of Stalingrad, WAS ousted from power and put under house arrest for the rest of his life. Khrushchev had to smuggle his memoirs to the West, just for anyone to heard anything from him. Pravda only ran a one-sentence announcement of the former premier's death.
Zhukov was a man who managed to not get purged, right before the largest war ever waged. He naturally, not being an idiot, looked really smart while surrounded by morons, and he naturally did very well considering he had so many resources to use and was fighting the Nazis... Who were on drugs, insane, or as stupid as the people around Zhukov.
"Please don't do coups" is the PSA I didn't think I needed today
New day, new me, as they say, however.
Telling me not to do coups? He's not the boss of me, he's not even my real dad!
It's not a PSA. It's just disclaimer to keep this well researched instruction material as advertiser friendly.
This is like if the head of blackwater became so fed up with Pentagon corruption that he gave Smedley Butler's "war is a racket" speech before marching his men toward Washington, successfully taking down several Apaches and Blackhawks and a C-130, and was abruptly talked out of marching on DC by Justin Trudeau, moving to Canada, and everyone involved receiving a presidential pardon the next day, while police departments around the country began showing interest in the F-35 program.
What I like most about your verbal essays is your ability to cast events from a rational viewpoint, while never forgetting that we are experiencing profound irrationality. Well done!
And I used to think that the tragedies of Aeschylus were over the the top......
The Wagner convoy action was more of flying column than a thunder run. It was more of an effort to get to a specific location as rapidly as possible versus a deliberate raid with intent to demonstrate overwhelming fire power raid into the heart of the enemy defenses. Similar to coup versus mutiny difference. I do like the Mad Max style convoy reference that someone posted in the comments, and that may actually best describe the Wagner convoy.
The US Army (3rd ID) conducted the two famous Thunder Runs into Bagdad in 2003 by the using a reinforced armored brigade to blast through the teeth of the Iraqi defenses and maneuver at will in order to demonstrate that resistance was futile. Those two raids achieved their purpose and shattered the Iraqi's will to fight. A thunder run is not a blitzkrieg, flying column, nor an operational breakthrough as it has been described in recent pop culture. There is a great book, Thunder Run by David Zucchino, that explains how the concept evolved and was enacted on the fly by Col. David the Spartan Brigade commander of the 3rd ID.
Thunder Run comes right after Taco Bell.
Another excellent video essay. Perun sets the standard that mainstream media struggles to achieve. Bravo Sir, bravo 👏👏👏
The apathy displayed by russians as the Wagner column rode through the country is an example of the russian mentality and why they expected (projected) that ukranians would suffer the same apathy.
most retarded analysis ever. russians dont wanna kill russians especially when they are not only heroes , but not doing a "coup" (you dont announce a coup on telegram)
I fully expected the “coups 101” section to be presented by Max Pichardo
I miss having time for that channel.
Yet again, Perun provides a clear-headed, spin-free evaluation of a major geo-political event. As the old saying goes, information is power - but only if it's solid, reliable information.
It's not spin-free though. His interpretation is that the result of the uprising is embarrassing for Russia and Putin. While it may be embarrassing that it was allowed to start, to me it's quite impressive and a sign of power and control that it was all "resolved" without much violence. Perhaps it was not deliberate or controlled, but as an outcome, it's about as good as it could've been. Having the 2 factions fight each other just to show that the Russian army is strong and willing to resist would've been a disaster.
@@allydeaes and no it doesnt show strength of the russian side since the deal was made through lukashenko. Also the russians didnt defend that much (apart from the casualties which are very few)
@@allydea It's only possible to take that position if you ignore the problems necessary for Prighozin's _whatever_ to start. 'Embarrassing' is pretty much the best possible outcome for very publicly losing control of an army. An unembarassed ruling clique would have prevented it from starting in any number of ways, ranging from secret police discovering and neutering the event, keeping Wagner's loyalty so they kept working their problems through channels, prevented Wagner from having a beef with the government, or maybe inculcating a belief that armed confrontation was certain to make a favorable resolution less likely.
@@boobah5643 The spin of it being embarrassing seems stupid to begin with because Russia isn't a democracy. What the average person thinks doesn't matter, and nobody in the west's opinion will change the Kremlin's stance on anything either.
And that's the other problem. The FSB has people in Wagner. They absolutely knew. Even Strelkov and others knew and signaled that this was coming. And yet, there was hardly any response, no military maneuvering in reply to Wagner, no fighting, and the only results are that Russia is no longer liable for anything Wagner does and they've relocated all their equipment and personnel up to the border where they can hit Kiev or the baltics whenever they want.
They made the Russian version of ISIS: A State-funded, state-backed paramilitary that's completely deniable.
@allydea "without much violence" is a euphemism, Russia lost half a squadron of helicopters and a surveillance aircraft. That itself is an embarrassing failure.
I once bought a sportscar that was 35 years old, sight-unseen, taken apart and reassembled by the previous owner with bolts left over, which broke down underneath a casino while driving back to the hotel room, and drove it home halfway across the U.S. (Las Vegas to Illinois) while at the same time a blizzard caused a major freeway on my route to shut down for an entire day without any support beyond a co-driver.
Sometimes road trips make for the most compelling stories.
Thank you for being willing to put your schedule on hold in order to deal with current events. I know that must be hectic for you, but I really appreciate it. This was us such a mess and it’s changing so fast. Your calm and well reasoned analysis is always helpful.
It is hard work for him but that’s how this channel started in the first place
I think the fact that Wagner took all payments from the Russian government and kept all their cash in $USD tells everything we need to know about the state of Russia. Didn’t even trust their own currency 😂
Russia is an exporter, which means they naturally do not want a strong currency. However, they export a lot of fossil fuels, which drives up the value of their currency.
Also, Russian currency isn't accepted in many places due to sanctions. So why use it?
They're nasty guys but they're not idiots.
By far the most level-headed reporting on the Wagner affair to date.
Smashing video. It felt like far less than the 1 hour + length. Thank you!
Life feels like a TV series that has gone on for too long, and now the writers are tired of it and just seeing what they can get away with.
They wanted to end it a few seasons ago with the Cuban missile crisis but the production company decided it was too profitable and had to continue
Jumping the shark
The big reveal will be Putin waking up in a shower and realising that everything after 2011 was all a dream.
Lmao
@@trolleriffic”Oj blyat…. It felt so real.”
(Knock outside his door)
“Who is it?”
(We hear a very distinct, and very angry voice)
“SHAIGU! GERASIMOV!”
I did not have a Russian coup attempt on my Russi-Ukrainian War bingo card but boy am I happy it happened
They wanted a bloody massacre in Russia, but it didn't work out. It is very sad, very sad, because I so wanted a civil war, and bad Putin did not allow it, so he is weak. It's so European))))
Really? An actual Russian coup is one of the more likely way this finally ends.
I did. Do you remember the last time a russian president went away without violence? Me neither.
@@garak551999.
Gorbachev was such an innovator in Russian politics. He invented retirement
Coups 101? I can't wait to use this newfound knowledge when I launch one against my boss tomorrow.
The only "realistic" reason for this being setup by the Russian government that came to my mind was Russia wanting to use this as an excuse for full mobilisation. But since that didn't happen I guess we can rule out this option.
I like to think Putin organised this so that he can find who is already ready to rally against him
"Please don't do coups" -Perun
This is a tshirt logo if I've ever seen one
Ah yes,time to spend my weekend by watching an Australian explaining about the mutiny in Russia
Cant complain at all,best weekly show ever😎🤙
Western propaganda*
@@YOURDADSDILDO You sad "man".
“Australia”? Where’s that? Is it near Emutopia?
They wanted a bloody massacre in Russia, but it didn't work out. It is very sad, very sad, because I so wanted a civil war, and bad Putin did not allow it, so he is weak. It's so European))))
@@MrEMeat-kk9tcAll my homies pledge allegiance to Kiwiland 🥝
Plan: Kyiv in 3 days
Reality: Moscow in 1 day
😂
Well, Rostov.
Thanks for the video.
It is really amazing to see how you changed. Going from video games to in depth journalism. Well done!
Perun, normally I listen to your presentations with gleeful interest. And normally, your assessments are spot on to my knowledge. However, in this one you stumbled on to my field of expertise. Specifically; Nuclear, Biological and Chemical warfare. Going forward we'll ignore the chem and bio sides, and focus on Nuks and operational status.
At around +- 29:25 you stated "You may find missiles or warheads. But not Both" (something to that effect) in your discussion of Voronzh-45. In "peace" time that statement would be "mostly" correct. Depending on the specific weapon system, (there ARE exceptions) warheads and delivery systems are not stored in close proximity to one another, or in a "ready for use" state. Whether it's the US, Britain, France Or Russia all militaries around the world follow this basic precept. "In peace time (or LOW Readiness states. This is critical) keep all of the dangerous stuff locked down and safe............."
Here's the problem....... Russia is NOT in a low readiness state! Over and over both Russia (and confirmed by the US) have commented on how Russia is in a "high" state of readiness for its nuclear forces. example - crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2022/10/europe-russia-implements-heightened-alert-levels-oct-20-extends-flight-restrictions-at-southwestern-airports-until-oct-28-update-89 Was Putin just saber rattling?? I can't speak to that. But I CAN speak to Russian MOP's (method of procedure) to achieving readiness levels. To achieve medium and high levels of readiness warheads will be assembled to an operational state, AND their delivery systems will be relocated to be in close proximity. (In preparation for final assembly. Should it be ordered) Now typically warheads will NOT be moved from their storage centers (this is viewed as VERY provocative). But the delivery systems will be moved to the warheads.
So, to say if Wagner had taken Voronzh-45 they wouldn't have found anything is DEAD WRONG. If Wagner had taken Voronzh-45, whatever is stored there (IF anything is stored there. it could be empty) has a VERY high probability of being operational. And its delivery system is also in close proximity.............. That is the nature of nuclear readiness...............
That Perun had to say don't do coups shows he knows his auidence very well.
This rebellion, coup or whatever it was, makes the Kornilov affair from 1917 look clear and understandable by comparison.
Mutiny, aka dummy spit
We do have about a century of research, hindsight, and analysis on that. On this, we currently have...
What the fuck is not clear after watching an hour long video on the topic? Wagner as a structure was supposed to be integrated into MoD as opposed to being a separate structure by 01.07., the state funding would have been cut the same day. Instead of rolling over Prigozhin went va banque and played his only and final card in order to preserve the status quo. However Putin was not up for that sort of negiotiation and the whole thing ended with minimal bloodshed/damage.
Wow, i was just thinking about doing a coup but after listening Perun begging us not doing coups I'll abandon my plans 😂. Thanks for your great reprts 🤙
Top notch as always, your quality videos never disappoint! I haven't been in the military, yet find the info being presented to be very fascinating. The way Perun lays out the logic behind everything is what really makes these videos so great. Please keep up the great work!!
Looking back at it, it’s less of a Mutiny and more like an Adult Temper Tantrum
In a year and a half we went from talking about the Russians marching on Kiev to the Russians marching on Moscow. Usually when I heard someone say something to that effect earlier in the war it was in the context of a popular movement to unseat Putin. Don't think anyone expected it to apply to a mercenary army.
I think you could have referenced the 2013 coup in Egypt as an example of what a successful coup looks like:
-prior president seized, news broadcast showing broad support and that it’s already over, and widespread demonstrations in support.
I love your dry delivery. With all due respect to media entities with budgets orders of magnitude higher than yours, you are now my exclusive source of information on this critically important war. My expectations for this decade did not include 'RUclipsr wins best war correspondant', but you certainly are nailing it. FWIW, thanks.
Perun's videos really are the highlight of my week. The detail, the different topics from industry to logistics to battlefront and private conscriptovich's adventures. Never know what you're going to get but its always fascinating. Many thanks and keep up the good work!
More like Private Conscriptovics misadventures
For me, this was his most enjoyable video. Really interesting stuff.
My primary concern is what this means for Russian internal stability. Putin had just shown his weakness, and that's dangerous when you have an awful lot of regions that would probably like to be independent - not to mention neighbours, like Georgia and Kazakhstan, that have bones to pick. If Russia became a democracy I'd be ecstatic, but somehow I suspect a series of bloody wars and insurgencies is more likely. None of which will benefit Europe, due to the floods of refugees and potential terrorist radicalisation that will occur. Not to mention the circling vulture that is Communist China. I have no doubt that the CCP are eyeing Siberia very hungrily indeed.
I'd imagine the ccp would prefer to set up a puppet state instead of grabbing territory directly. Still fragmentation of Russia with all of the nukes floating around......
I kind of doubt Russia can become a democracy. Even if the Putin regime falls, the West has already been burned by the fall of the Soviet Union. Even if a provisional Republic will form, it wont get much support because of a perceived inevitably that another autocrat will take over.
Juat close the border.
Europe knows about refugees.
As ever, a brilliantly insightful, calm and considered analysis of very recent and open events. Easily the best Analysis of key events in the Russo-Ukraine war with transparent reasoning and common sense. Perun remains above the politics and propaganda to make his best and honest predictions. Excellent piece of work. If you haven’t read other presentations, you really should.
This is probably one of the soonest Perun has made a video about an event so quickly after it happened. Really impressive how you can do such good research and put together an hour long video explaining everything in great detail in such a short notice.
As for the Wagner mutiny, it is rather strange. There are a lot of theories flying about, but I think it is going to be quite a while before we get a full explanation of the events surrounding those fateful hours, if ever. Also it would probably tale quite long before the ripple effects of this mutiny are truly felt.
To anyone interesed in what just happened, or the theory behind coups, I’d really recommend Edward Luttwak’s “Coup D’Etat: A Practical Handbook.” It’s been read by actual perpetrators of coups in some small countries, and has also been used by some governments to put systems in place to prepare themselves against such attempts.
It was rather hilariously ironic to read a book about the theory behind a proper coup, and then see one happen in real time that didn’t follow any of the rules in Luttwak’s book 😂.
Agree! I read this book a few years ago and it's fantastically clever and interesting. Although written in the pre-internet & pre-mobile phones era (which obviously changes some technicalities), its principles are well sound.
Which is evidence that this was perhaps not a coup.
I read a JSTOR about coups and Africa. Basically if multiple groups don't trust each other, and except to be banned from politics or be couped, they will try and coup first.
The result of most failed coups is a purge and/or civil-war, most successful coups is either a purge and/ or a civil-war
@@scottmacgregor3444 It was clearly just a guy trying to not get killed, and PMCs wanting to not be moved under worse leadership.
I'm hearing they'll get exiled to Africa, which is what they want. They got rich fighting idiots in Africa.
I also left a comment recommending this excellent book. It so inspired me, I once tried to design a board wargame around it - seizing the radio station and Ministry of the Interior were the key to success in the 1070s, but I guess things are more complicated these days!
… in the universal language of high explosives…
You know it‘s going to be a good episode when Perun starts like that😊
Once again, great job mate! Keep up the great work!
Thank you for not rushing this vid. I applaud you.
Quoting one of my favourite Russia experts, Julia Ioffe: ”Russians are messy”. There is a lot less 6D chess than we tend to assume.
I heard a quote that went something like : "Paying attention to Russian politics is like watching a cat and a dog fight under a blanket. You can't see shit, you don't understand anything and the only thing you can do is wait until one of them comes out alive."
@@garak55 "Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won." ―Churchill
Ah yes, Westerners with their Orientalism))
@@ontheline3077I mean it's a pretty good description. For America for example you can see the two bulldogs fighting, but often times it's more for show than anything else and leads to little.
Russia on the other hand tries to keep the front of the big stonk bear, and is currently failing miserably.
@@ontheline3077 She’s from Russia tho )))
Perun is such a great presenter, he even makes his sponsors seem as important as the topics he discusses
Thank you Perun. Thank you, thank you THANK YOU! I've spent far too much time reassuring conspiracy types on the internet (and in life) that not everything is 6D chess, and that institutions, governments and organisations are equally as capable of incompetence as they are evil genius (arguably, more capable of incompetence). I've worked in the Australian public service for 20 years. It's been my consistent observation that what appears to be malice, is just garden variety incompetence. And yet the sheer quantum of guff out there which suggests this failed coup (or whatever it was) was part of some grand strategy on Putin's part is beyond laughable!
Great analysis and commentary. Thanks again for your continued input and perspective on the war. All the best.
PERUNE: we adore your unique brand of humour, dry wit, sarcasm, satire.
Don't overdo it though
Perun, the perfect blend of insight, info-dumping, sarcasm, professional roasting, and Taylor Swift fan extraordináire.
Wondeful job as always!
Great video as always. Thank you for the time and effort!