Russia's Winter Offensive in Ukraine - From Bakhmut to Vuhledar, outcomes, lessons, and costs
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
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The Russian invasion of 2022 began with a multi-pronged winter invasion of Ukrainian territory. After a series of reverses in late 2022, the Russian effort to reclaim the initiative in Ukraine seems to have begun...with another multi-pronged winter offensive.
In this episode, I look at the way that offensive has played out, what observations and lessons might come out of the last three months, and what that may mean for the war to come.
Also we're going to talk about the shovels story, because we have to do better than that.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & Corrections:
As a video covering military matters - be aware that the fog of war is much thicker on this issue that it is with things like economics and finance.
As such - I'd advise attaching a responsible level of certainty to any of the ideas put forward here. For example, the use of artillery deployed mines at Vuhledar is widely reported - but has not been confirmed by any on-the-ground figures.
I also want to point out that when I talk about the Ukrainian military being opened to lessons learned - that's a relative statement (with the point of comparison being Russia). It's also true that all militaries need to put in place systems of discipline and due process, so it's important to take published commentary, complaints and theorising into context - understand that it's not all that's being said, it's just the sample that makes it into the public sphere.
Sources & Reading:
Vuhledar Satelite Imagery:
/ 1621815960075116544
Strelkov on the offensive:
/ 1633410034951438339
wartranslated.com/i-girking-f...
Khodakovsky on ammo and Vuhledar:
/ 1628354732053131265
Muradov Promotion
RALee85/status/16...
Kyiv independent on Bakhmut:
kyivindependent.com/national/...
kyivindependent.com/national/...
Comentary on RU Assault unit tactics:
/ 1630089568195313669
/ 1634799680126058502
(Tatrigami's channel is generally worth looking at / tatarigami_ua )
Commentary on potential lessons learned in the UA Army:
By Lieutenant Colonel Glen Grant
/ 1636589579183575040
Visually confirmed loss data and graphics:
Oryx:
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02...
War Mapper:
War_Mapper?ref_sr...
Warspotting:
ukr.warspotting.net/
Jomini of the West
/ jominiw
Mapping per deepstatemap:
deepstatemap.live/en#13/47.75...
Credit as always to Dimitri at Wartranslated
/ 1637130923027095556
How the ebattle for the Donbas shaped Ukraine's success
www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/...
Casualties of 14th Spetznaz Colonel Sergey Polyakov
/ 1622340987350564866
Kofman on the winter offensive:
/ 1627309427907854336
Shoigu visit to Muradov:
/ 1632063279664181249
Russian official commenting on Bakhmut
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - INTRO
00:00:57 - WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:01:59 - SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:02 - BEFORE THE WINTER
00:04:12 - The Surovikin Strategy?
00:05:52 - Pressure Applied & Received
00:07:28 - The New(old) Boss
00:08:20 - Ukraine Secedes The Initiative
00:08:55 - WINTER OFFENSIVE
00:11:08 - OVERVIEW OF THE OFFENSIVE
00:12:39 - A Sense Of Perspective
00:15:36 - WINTER BATTLEFIELDS
00:16:02 - Kherson
00:17:25 - Luhansk
00:18:12 - Svatove-Kreminna
00:19:21 - Kupyansk
00:19:43 - Donetsk
00:20:54 - Avdiivka
00:22:56 - Marinka
00:25:00 - Bakhmut
00:31:06 - Vuhledar
00:37:05 - Culture Can Kill
00:38:36 - OBSERVATIONS
00:39:52 - Shovels And Sticks
00:44:49 - Attacking Fortified Positions Is Difficult
00:46:12 - Entrenchments & Defensive Tactics
00:47:17 - Certain Systems Have Been Noteworthy
00:49:06 - Changing Force Quality
00:50:53 - EVOLVING TACTICS & FORCES
00:53:45 - Ukraine's Lessons
00:57:15 - EVALUATION & WHAT NEXT
00:59:24 - The Russian Costs And Gains
01:02:35 - Implications For Ukraine
01:05:37 - Was There An Alternative?
01:06:38 - Losses & Force (re)generation
01:07:21 - CONCLUSIONS
01:08:44 - CHANNEL UPDATE
Thanks to returning sponsor, Ground News: Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. Try Ground News today and get 30% off your subscription: ground.news/perun
After talking about economics last week - I wanted to switch to looking to battlefield developments to provide the context for a final topic I want to talk about in the near future - attrition, and the challenges of force generation and reconstitution. Not exactly the kind of things jokes are made of, but a topic that I think deserves to be honestly covered. That's why you won't see many attempts to estimate losses at any detailed level in this video.
As always the warning applies that the information I've been working with is highly imperfect, and there is always the possibility that new information will emerge in the future that replaces the understanding we have now.
Particular thanks to those involved in the creation of this video - noting that some of you are engaged in an active warzone so I always appreciate you taking the time to provide your thoughts, anecdotes and inputs.
Also, I couldn't resist talking about the shovels thing - because every video is a good opportunity to make a point about information in the age of the internet.
A devoted fan since the very second video you posted.
Do you need any help with translations POL-->ENG ? or researching in Polish in general? Id like to help out bro.
@@Warszawski_Modernizm I have a list of people who help when I'm struggling with foreign language material. if you send me an email it'd be great to add you to the list and be able to call on you in future
ty for your hard work
You should do a review of the AUKUS deal.
@@garretttobin7451 Taking back your country = Propaganda victories.
Thank goodness we have minds as sharp as yours to expose us to the truth.
As a Hearts of Iron IV player, I feel glad to know that my military expertise is on par with the Russian Command.
Your military expertise is that low?
It's been sombering to realize I, an armchair general with exactly 0 military experience and a conscientious objector to conscription in my country, seem to have a better grasp of military strategy than people in control of one of the world's largest nuclear stockpiles. I remember the day the war started I was somewhat startled and my immediate reaction was "huh, fullscale invasion. The media must have massively underreported the size of the Russian forces assembled" because I just couldn't fathom them taking and holding a country the size of Ukraine with the forces they had.
bruh i just got that game on sale on steam, its hella fun but i have no clue wtf im doing. keep getting popups saying my troops are low on supply, i have no clue how to fix that i just pray it fixes itself, so im pretty much on par with putin lmao
Not if you're actually any good!
Same bro.
Somehow, formation of russian generals seems to be as deep as a video game.
That image of marinka is horrifying. I knew that this war has been incredibly destructive but it hadn't really hit home.
The damage honestly reminds me of an EF-5 Tornado here in the states.
Tragically Marinka is not the only town/city that has been demolished by this russian invasion :((
I was thinking the same...I'm off to Google a pre-war image of it, but not sure if I want to
Looks like the zone rouge after WW1
You should have seen what Serb paramilitias had done to Vukovar in the Croatian war of inde0endence with the wholehearted aid of the Yugoslav Army.
In fact, this whole war is the Croatian war of independence, but on a much larger scale.
The only thing Putin is doing different from Milošević is that he's abducting Ukrainian children and stuffing them into concentration camps to re-educate them into being Russians.
Milošević had been a strictly killing type of nutjob.
I'm guessing Vladimir Vladimirović got the idea from Xi Jinping's treatment of Uyghurs.
As someone who has been working with the Oryx team to track losses (specifically around Vuhledar) here is some information to put into perspective the scale of the equipment losses the Russian units assaulting those positions have suffered.
In roughly 50 days since the beginning of Russia's renewed assault on Vuhledar Russia has lost:
- Fifty-six Main Battle Tanks; 1x T-72B (1x Damaged and Abandoned), 3x T-72B Obr. 1989 (3x Damaged and Abandoned), 20x T-72B3 (6x Destroyed, 12x Damaged and Abandoned, 1x Abandoned, 1x Captured), 1x Unknown T-72 (1x Destroyed), 20x T-80BV (9x Destroyed, 2x Damaged, 7x Damaged and Abandoned, 2x Abandoned), 2x T-80BVM (2x Destroyed), 1x T-80BVM Obr. 2022 (1x Destroyed), 1x T-90A (1x Damaged and Abandoned), 3x T-90S (2x Destroyed, 1x Damaged and Abandoned), 4x Unknown Tank (3x Destroyed, 1x Abandoned).
- Six Armoured Fighting Vehicles; 5x MT-LB (1x Destroyed, 1x Damaged, 1x Damaged and Abadoned, 2x Abandoned), 1x Unknown AFV (1x Destroyed).
- Sixty Infantry Fighting Vehicles; 7x BMP-1 (5x Destroyed, 2x Damaged and Abandoned), 1x BMP-1AM (1x Damaged and Abandoned), 34x BMP-2 (23x Destroyed, 7x Damaged and Abandoned, 4x Abandoned), 10x BMP-3 (2x Destroyed, 2x Damaged, 5x Damaged and Abandoned, 1x Abandoned), 3x BMP-3 688M sb. 3KDZ (3x Destroyed), 5x BTR-82A (3x Destroyed, 2x Damaged and Abandoned).
- One APC; 1x Unknown BTR-80/82A (1x Destroyed).
- One Self-propelled Artillery; 1x 2S4 Tyulpan (1x Destroyed).
- One Helicopter; 1x Ka-52 (1x Destroyed).
- Six Engineering Vehicles; 4x UR-77 (4x Destroyed), 2x IMR-2 (1x Destroyed, 1x Damaged and Abandoned).
- Three Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps; 1x KamAZ 4x4 (1x Destroyed), 1x UAZ-452 van (1x Destroyed), 1x Unknown Truck (1x Destroyed).
In total, the Russians have had 73 vehicles Destroyed, 5 Damaged, 44 Damaged and Abandoned, 11 Abandoned, and 1 Captured. A total of 134 individual pieces of heavy equipment lost since the end of January (the 26th of January to be precise).
That is almost two full Mechanised Brigades visually confirmed as lost around Vuhledar in under two months (with another twenty or so other losses needing further footage for them to be added to the list, including a couple of TOS-1As and some T-62Ms).
The Google Sheet with all my tracking for Vuhledar losses for those who want to look into it further: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p6e0J7YpLHhKel5kfNjvEglKQyez7OSoCX_NLOhntCc/edit?usp=sharing
That's absolutely insane. Thanks for doing all the hard work.
Rather puts the lie to some grand Russian offensive - doesn't matter if you have 300,000 Mobiks if you don't have any tanks
Thank you for this small, but stunning recap !
Thank you for all the work you guys are doing over there !
Heck... no way crapskis can replace all this equipment loss. Good.
Question, what date is considered " the beginning of Russia's renewed assault on Vuhledar"?
Need to keep in mind that the Oryx counts will underestimate Russian losses (excludes vehicles that were damaged and made it back to the lines but are not repairable, vehicles not photographed and geolocated).
The success of this channel really shows how many people dont just want to watch sources with populistic, flashy or extremely simplyfied informations and I think its great.
Precise informations are not boring, they are invaluable.
Because it takes skill to be able to do a 1 hour long power point presentation and not bore people to sleep.
Perun got that skill.
Yeah, it's "precise" ones that are valuable, not valid ones.
@@HegelsOwl that would be valid if Perun didn't keep being right.
Also who would not love some spicy Australian sarcasm?
you need an Australian though,very important :P
9:21 "Generally speaking if the other side can't tell if your offensive has gone in or not, that's pretty embarrassing" 😂 I see what you did there.
The military equivalent of "is it in yet?"
Emotional damage!!!
Oh, you are naughty.
@@MrAwsomenoob
A shamefur dispray!
@@joshuacampbell1625 So Glad i wasn't the only one to immediately think of that too when he said it.
As Ukrainian I never once have thought listening to your videos that your voice or way of sharing information is cold. Thank you for all you’re doing ❤
@@Mortablunt grow up.
We all are in awe of Ukraine and Ukrainians.
@@rajeshkanungo6627 we are too, believe me
@Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin One wonders why Russia invaded them if they’re so sick of them.
@@vladimirvladimirovichputin6797 if you are a Putin fan, obviously you are sick and tired of people who stand up to Putin’s delusional beliefs about Russia’s right to take over people and countries which have a visceral hatred of Russia.
I doubt you understand how unloved Russia is.
My wife went into labor a few hours before the episode, and my brain legitimately went to the fact I was bummed I was going to have to wait to watch..... excellent job as always! And btw baby and mom are fine! 😅
All the best to mom, you, and new baby :)
"Squeeze that baby out hun, Perun dropped a new video"
Now you can introduce your kid to 1h military presentations from the day one
@@angelikaskoroszyn8495that kid will be the best hoi4 player there has ever been
@@mateusmachadomartinsjunior4309 hoi13
Hope you're keeping your mental health up, Mr. Perun. The nature of this topic, the amount of research you do, and the stakes of everything involved have got to be exhausting. Thanks for everything!
@@Mortablunt Guessing you've never worked with anyone from the Pentagon, hoss. They ain't never nice.
"What has the Russian offensive achieved other than drastically simplifying the Wagner Group's payroll?" -- LOL
It's a great line, but Wagner wasn't going to pay the prisoners in the first place. God, can you imagine what they provide the prisoner troops to eat? Surplus Soviet MREs from the Afghan War, I'd guess.
Didn't they promise to pay surviving family?
@hamobu but will they keep that promise? Who would notice/care if they didn't? Is there even any paperwork to prove those families are owed that money?
@@hamobu Even for mobiks or kontraktniki, no body, no proof of death, no payment. And Russians leave a ton of dead on the battlefield.
That line was brutal, man, B R U T A L ! I know how Wagner operates, but god damn!
The analysis you provide for free is really unparalleled on youtube
amazing
@@garretttobin7451 Could you give some examples?
@@bobmcbobbob1815 Nah this dude just pops up in every video, has a cry about how Perun is wrong but never actually refutes anything. Honestly impressed he's so committed to boosting the channel.
@@garretttobin7451 Could you please post some non russian-affiliated sources for that?
@@garretttobin7451 Dude the Russian training system can only accommodate 100k men at a time and the training period lasts for 2-3 months, and there was only one mobilization wave, you are talking out of your ass.
@@garretttobin7451 Copium is hell of a drug.
You must have the most loyal audience ever on youtube!
After 5 hours around 30% of your almost 400 thousand subscribers have already viewed a full 1hour video.
Well done and well deserved. Thank you and keep up the good work,
Maybe it's not about loyalty - maybe it's about quality.
@@randomnobodovsky3692 provide quality and you shall receive loyalty.
A little advice that could likely improve some explanations in your videos, especially for non-Ukrainians: cities and their oblasts (regions) should probably be more distinguished, like Donetsk and Donetsk oblast (or Donetska oblast or Donetsk region, whatever you see more fitting). Sometimes you refer to the oblast but call it just like a city (Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, etc.), and while it should be clear for Ukrainians I imagine foreigners could get somewhat confused. Especially in some situations like e.g. when you say 'an awful lot of Donetsk' (meaning its oblast) is mostly under Ukrainian control while showing the map where Donetsk (city) is clearly red.
Awesome work, I am immensely grateful for all your dedication and efforts! Your cold analysis is helping to organise thoughts better and to fight through the occasional moments of grimness/despair.
Buy a map
After over a year, I'm able to point out on map most Ukrainian cities. If Bakhmut offensive continues for half year more, I'm likely to be able to show major landmarks of this town.
I've only recently learned that Ukrainian oblasts are named after their capital cities, could be the other way around though, so that's also something LMAO
On the mark. American here. I only know the main cites and a few regions. Not enough to know to make these distinctions
Maybe it's just me, but since it's pretty clear that Donetsk, the city, is under Russian hand, when I hear about fighting in Donetsk, my brain directly associate it with the Oblats and not the city.
In a few months i went from "yt please stop recommending me those hour long video by that aussie seems boring" to literally yelping in joy as i saw this upload.
Your analysis is top notch and the fact we live in a world where we take this content for granted is mindblowing, just a few decades ago these kinds of deep form dives were reserved to universities and scientific papers, where you had to pay massives amounts of money just to access info
Ha exactly! RUclips knows to serve me a Perun video minutes after it goes up
Same. "We insist. You're REALLY gonna wanna see this."
His format is terrible, should suck and fail.
His content carries it, and makes it a necessity.
You can tell YT to stop recommending videos from sources - just klick on the 3 dots and tell YT not to recommend any videos from this sources.
In your case it was great that you didn't do it, because you found this channel.
However, there are quite a lot of channels that I got video recommendations a few days in a row that are just propaganda garbage (Ultimate Ukraine, Divine Justice...)
It is very helpful to block these recommendations.
“1 hour video of Ukraine war in power point format appears in my feed”
Me- Sure why not is to kill time
“1 hour later”
Me- I NEED MORE!!!
things you don't want to hear from your partner:
"are you in yet?"
"has the offensive already begun?"
I guess that's what they mean by "All's fair in love and war."
and ofc "what do you mean it's over already?"
Don't forget " I need more firepower!".
Or the classic ,,
" I'm calling up the reserves " ,,,,,
"I hope you have more then a shovel"
You know Perun actually knows his stuff when he is unable to talk about Australia’s military plans.
He knows too much.
I mean. It is rather obvious that he is inside man.
Yeah, he probably has NDAs signed regarding the Australian military.
I'm pretty sure this sort of analysis is his day job, he is probably employed either directly or indirectly by the Australian military.
Haha, my thoughts exactly.
It makes me feel good knowing someone who actually knows his stuff is working with us though
Avdiivka, like Vuhledar, sits on commanding high ground and is a strong natural defensive position even if there were no town there. In contrast, Bakhmut sits on the lowest possible ground, astride a small, easily fordable river. Bakhmut enjoys the defensive benefits of urban and industrial buildings and a small river, but it doesn't command the surrounding ground the way Avdiivka and Vuhledar do. To me, losing either Avdiivka or Vuhledar would be far more worrisome than losing Bakhmut.
You know it’s a big channel when the video is 6 minutes old, and already has dozens of comments.
TBH It's usually one of the best moments of my week - seeing YT finish processing/approving the video, and then seeing that people are actually keen to watch it.
@@PerunAU Going from an obscure gaming channel to churning out some of the best commentary on the Ukraine war, you’ve earned it.
That also means people comment without watching :)
@@kenzothecornishTV I comment as I go, on the bits I've watched so far and also to call out the stupid Moskovians in the comments.
@@PerunAU ❤
The point about how the media space seems to have drastically cut their expectations for Russia is a fascinating observation. I had mostly been ignoring coverage of Ukraine because being able to watch people get killed in a conflict you're not participating in just... isn't good for my brain. But after I found Perun's slides I looked around more, and I was just amazed to see that people were talking like the idea that Russia could take small cities and towns as important victories for the country. The very idea that Russia is still fighting on the battlefield, let alone that they're not getting very far, is such a monumental defeat that it should shock any Russian supporters to their core. Yet the idea that they might lose tens of thousands of people to take a small city somehow salvages their reputation? That's insane.
But I realize now that what we're seeing is what its like being dug into trenches in a global psy-ops war. As people are tracking the day to day and trying to form new narratives every night, the scope of our understanding gets narrowed. Propaganda works best there, truth is elusive, and it becomes very easy to lose your place when you're spending every day fighting a specific battle. Russia's advances aren't in any way impressive, but when you're in psy-op knife fights, the size and scope of things doesn't matter anymore.
Why should it shock us? Nazis are well known for fanatical defenses of doomed positions. What Ukraine is doing is like claiming
Patient in critical condition is just fine because so long as they keep on finding more blood packs to run through him he can remain alive.
@@Mortablunt thing is it’s the Nazis dying to take those fortified positions right now.
This is what I've been saying since the beginning of the war. Russia went from a NATO peer who was capable of steamrolling Europe in a matter of days to a country who's maximum capabilities are WW1 style meat grinder combat with no rapid pace offensive even being attempted. The mental gymnastics it takes to say Russia is even preforming remotely OK is astounding. The US invasion of Iraq during Desert Storm lasted for a total of 42 days before a cease fire was declared by the US. And that was a country on a different contient on the opposite side of the planet. Meanwhile Russia is fighting a country on its border and is over a year into this war and still has yet to capture towns less then 100 miles away from its own borders. It's nothing less then a total and unimaginable embarrassment on the same level as falling down the stairs, shitting your pants, and crying. How anyone can point to this absolute clusterfuck and say this is as intended is sheer lunacy.
@@badjuju2721 If you were to go back in time two years now and say that Russia will invade Ukraine, get about 30% of the country, lose 15% of that in a counter attack, and be unable to advance in any other way than house to house via a mercenary group, you'd at best be thought of as being irresponsibly dismissive of the threat posed. Most people would think you dangerously insane.
It's just wild. My worldview was rocked to its core by the invasion, "Russians rolling tanks into Europe" was something only Tom Clancys thought would happen anymore. Then it turns out Russia couldn't actually roll those tanks very far, which totally rocked my understanding of things again.
Somehow Russian supporters have the same worldview and understanding of their place and power though, and that's both an astonishing testament to the power of new propaganda and a scathing inditement of people's willingness to be fooled.
@Nothingseen It's really shocked me aswell, I had always considered Russia to he the second best military in the world, now the very concept is so laughable it makes me wonder if the Soivets were this shit, or if the 30 years of curroption and rot of the post soviet collapse is too blame. I'm rethinking the entirety of modern history because of revelations this war has brought into light. It really is incredible and frankly scary how wrong we were.
Only three things are certain: death, taxes, and perun dutifully posting an excellent analysis every Sunday night. God bless you perun, thank you so much for your hard work and diligence
Unless you’re from Kuwait, in which taxes are no longer a factor in your life.
I'd add russian trolls to the list
welp you had to jinx it :P
@@ayrendraganas8686 Bro T__T
It's not that you're cold, you're simply dispassionate because you have to be to be objective and do the honest, Clausewitzian analysis that we so much appreciate. Keep it up but feel free to take a break if you need to. The human tragedy of this war is truly on another level. That picture of the ruins of Marinka-no words.
Its ironic, when anybody says, "we captured Marinka back" ... there is no Marinka anymore.
@@Gleichtritt It's the version of Marinka that shows the many benefits of being part of Russkiy Mir.
"feel free to take a break" I dont think he needs your permition to do so.
@@cumpanions8105 Come on man, the viewer wasn't giving the man permission he was encouraging him if it all got too much. Go outside, touch some grass
So objective he interviews US military staff & denounces the Ukraine Foreign Legion being called mercs; I still appreciate his analysis, but he's about as "objective" as SkyNews.
As you said: "and still only 109 Bradleys?" Thanks Perun. Keep up doing the good work of dispelling bs; and giving us accurate information on how we spectators can help end this hideous war.
100 Marder + 60 bradley + 50 CV90 is about 200 IFVs. And this is just the first badge of vehicles probably some say, as Ukraine will be given mostly old CV90's to try out and test in combat to see their strenghts and weaknesses, and then some extra bugfixes can be made on the next bunch of CV90 vehicles before they are sent down to Ukraine.
Furthermore should it be said that Ukraine aslo have some APCs... like M113, BMPs and FV432.
This war has captivated me, but often there is simply too much news and information coming all at once. I highly appreciate you condensing the key points of the war into weekly videos like this.
General Igor: Ok but HOW are they going to land on the beaches of Crimea?
General Boris: [1000 yard stare] Drones, man, drones.
Don't forget they are supposedly fighting the entirety of NATO :-)
*Battle of Kashyyyk flashbacks*
Colonel Engineerovich: They have ways and means to invade Crimea I assure you. Now give me even more money to get those trenches dug, I want to retire a rich man by age 55.
If Russia realy fear NATO, or Ukraine is given a small navy, morale booster, impression of doing something, and something to do for people, not completely irrational by Russia.
Captain Bullshitski, to Sergeant Bicepski: (about why they have been stationed in southern Crimea to defend against an unlikely amphibious assault) “Sergeant, let us not speculate the point of these beach defenses and just enjoy the fact that we are currently far away from the fighting.”
One thing we ought to all keep in mind about the battle of Bakmuth is that this battle is right now only one and a half month shorter than the Battle of Verdun (the longest battle in history). If the current offensive of the Russian army is culminating then the Ukrainians might have the dubious achievement of having fought the longest battle in history. That against a army that was only a year ago believed to be the third strongest army in the world.
Isn't Bakmuth technically a siege though?
Siege implies no resupply.
Bakhmut has never been encircled and cut off.
"a military operation in which enemy forces surround a town or building, cutting off essential supplies, with the aim of compelling the surrender of those inside:"
@@Kyle-sr6jm Yes, but wouldn't that mean the Siege of Leningrad and The Siege of Dunbar Castle, for example, were in fact, not sieges then?
While insufficient, Leningrad did have supply routes every winter via lake Ladoga, and contact would be reestablished with the rest of the USSR months before it's declared lifting of the siege.
And as for Dunbar, it had seaborne access the entire time, in fact that's where reinforcements for black Agnes came from.
And if they still are, where's the line that divides a badly supplied battle with a defending, garrisoned/entrenched force near some structures and a siege?
I'm bringing this up specifically because there was news that Bakhmut's MSRs were no longer fully useable and they had to cut a path through the forest and use smaller, less developed, mud-prone secondary roads.
@Essex Class sounds like leningrad was a seige while the lake was thawed.
Sounds like the term may be misapplied in the case of Dunbar castle.
Bakhumet is an odd situation as it is in a lowland and most of the defenders are in the highlands around it. They have resupply from behind.
The field of artillery craters that was the town of Marinka feels otherworldly. It's like it was taken on a different planet.
I hope (and presume) that the citizens were able to evacuate their homes in time.
Look up zone rouge the scars of World War I still exist and many towns and cities were never built back due to the sheer amount of unexploded munitions in the area
Just finished watching and noticed that RUclips decided to recommend a video of a 34-minute long interview with Col. Douglas Macgregor about how this Russian offensive will break Ukraine, and that Bakhmut will be the saddest story in a war Ukraine lost. I think RUclips is attempting it's own version of "balanced coverage" by recommending someone who is in every way the antithesis of Perun in terms of ability, intelligence, and integrity.
I just watched one of his vids that featured national deisgrace scot ritter . It's was every bit the 'car crash' you'd expect .
@@balaclavabob001 To be honest many Western commanders still can't believe that Russia was so weak.
Ritter and McGregor have been celebrating the coming fall of Ukraine for over a year now. They are just Russian stooges.
The Col comments about 14 and 15 yr old kids being put into the Ukrainian line, sounds very much like Russian propaganda to me, along with the Ukrainian casualties that sound unrealistic for a force fighting a defensive war..
@@chahh1866 My favourite is the 500,000 troops (not personnel, combat troops) that he said Russia was hiding back in December (maybe November) during an interview with Judge Napolitano. His comments are completely untethered from reality.
The only Powerpoint RUclipsr that i watch every week. I'm thankful that your quality and production time has improved tremendously over the span of a year.
I'm guessing that you'll find many, many, topics to talk about once the war (hopefully) subsides.
Honestly, I think watching Peruns actually good powerpoints has made me a better presenter in my uni work. His work quality is impeccable.
I know people want me to cover this war and I feel like it's the right thing to do given how important it is.
but I look forward to the day where the Ukraine videos I do are about reconstruction rather than an active war.
@@PerunAU Perun 2026: How Ukraine and Georgia made NATO and EU stronger.
🇺🇦 is sovereign and free and no dictator will change that.
@@PerunAU I hope people care about the reconstruction when the time comes.
I fear Ukraine will be more like Libya and forgotten by the Europeans. I hope it is more like Iraq, which was rebuilt by the Americans.
@@PerunAU A lot of people don't remove their emotions due to propoganda from all sides. The stakes of Russia losing 'unconditionally' are untenable for Russia.
That said allowing Russia to act the way it has is something it appears most of the world will not tolerate.
My only hope is some way is found for fighting to cease and we can indeed have weekly updates on reconstruction, until the next pipular conflict...
Been having this for two semesters. If Russia doesn't leave Ukraine soon, there will be hundreds of thousands of graduates in defense economics fighting for the relatively few available job prospects.
The economics of defense economics will be covered in a future Perun video.
@@benoithudson7235comment of the day sir😅
I genuinely considered this, as I would have access to at least free-standing courses. In fact, I might apply to some of those unless my PhD really starts next year.
I'm afraid most of those people would have to be self employed. Maybe you can improve your chances by also making a degree in some non-mainstream politology?
I told my father yesterday that the highlight of my Mondays is an hour long powerpoint presentation on RUclips and he gave me a look of utter disdain. Today he rang to thank me for recommending you Perun.
I think the trenches in Crimea are not about Ukraine going to invade from the beach. They also know this. I think it´s more of something like: Someone was told to "fortify Crimea, trenches needed 50km, ASAP" and the guy leading project noticed the sand would be the easiest place to dig...
I suspect that creating false reports of the possibility of a Ukrainian attack from the Black Sea into Crimea would allow justification for the stationing of more troops in southern Crimea, and that many Russian soldiers and officers are eager to be assigned there, far away from the frontline.
@@CMY187 Usually then dealing with authoritarian regimes the explanation that takes into account court politics is closest to the truth. In other words: yes, this and more.
I think it's more likely fearmongering about the threat of NATO, aimed at the local civilian population, or otherwise further normalising the presence of war infrastructure for them.
In 1942-44 multiple German armies fought over Crimea, if you read that history I very much doubt that Ukraine will be able to take it back.
@@chahh1866 42-44' was a long while ago and the Germans were doomed from the start by having shit logistics. The Soviets, were a lot more powerful than the Russians can ever be and were fighting a death war because the Nazis publicly stated if they win they are genociding the Slavs. The Russians are nowhere near to being the industrial powerhouse the USSR was, nor do they have the necessary money to fully retool their economy, and a lot of modern technology requires products that are made outside of Russia. Meanwhile, the Ukraine's are fighting a war for their independence and are fighting on their own home turf. Their economy, while definitely struggling, is still on a war footing and they are being supported by the West. Modern and far better equipment than the Russians have is being shipped in by NATO pretty regularly at this point which is being shipped relatively unopposed. Ukraine also does not have to manage an entire front stretching from the Baltics to the Black Sea, as well as defend the entirety of France and Italy.
Everything points to Crimea being a tough nut, but not an impossible one to crack open. Especially if the Russians keep trying and failing offensives instead of just defending what gains they have.
As a HOI4 player (naturally, with expertly drawn offensive arrows!!) I am, of course, appalled.
But as a subscriber to this channel, I am once again blown away by the quality of Perun's analysis and insights. Having a calm and well-presented recap of events is invaluable during times where there is so much media hype, misinformation etc. Huge thanks for your ongoing, top-quality coverage of this war 👍
I truly believe that a mediocre hoi player has a deeper understanding of logistics, supply and needed skill set of its officer and nco corps than the generals of the Russian armed forces.
That said, the factor of corruption on the level the Russians display is just crazy.
@@sebastianriemer1777 I've seen a comment talk about HoI4 players in relation to this, not exactly in these words, but approximately, and I think it rings true: "Say what you want about HOI4 players, but unlike Russian generals and officers, they at least have something they don't posess: *_Actual dedication."_*
@@mekingtiger9095 Bad fame of HoI4 players is due to some of them confusing video game logic with actual complexity of the war. Even laughing from Russians, we need understand that what they do is far more complicated and sometimes done competently. Problem is that in many cases, yes. HoI4 players would be more competent then most of Russian generals.
The best thing HOI has done for me in regards to the Ukrainian war is really drive home why fighting is so heavily centralized on a few points of emphasis, specifically what are called supply hubs in HOI. Having attempted an assault through an area without any supporting rail infrastructure in the game, I can safely say that it is an inadvisable tactic unless you are truly confident that you can achieve all your goals quickly enough.
We went from wondering how many days Russia can take Kyiv to how many more weeks/months Russia can take a depopulated town in the Donbas.
I don't think Russia ever had plans to take Kiev. By all accounts, their objective was to liberate Lugansk / Donetsk and guarantee water supply to Crimea by controlling parts of the Dnieper.
How long until kick putrid in dumbass region
How many days until the crushing Ukranian offensive with western armour.
@@First-Last_name The answer to both your questions is "Nobody knows, and anyone who says they know is yanking your chain"
@@MeeesterBond17 and anyone who does know, won't be telling.
This is 100x more valuable than those CNN clips of quick interviews with retired US generals.
In 2021 if someone told me I was looking forward to watch power point presentations about a war, I would have laugh. Now I know it's Sunday because of Perun's top-notch videos. Thanks mate and Slava Ukraini from Berlin.
What happened to all that never again shit you Germans used to preach?
Imagine a dude propheting about an upcoming world pandemic and war in Europe back in 2019, he would be locked up in an asylum.
Yay, another exciting PowerPoint from Perun! He’s single-handedly created the “exciting PowerPoint” as a thing.
Well, I'd give some props to "Well There's Your Problem" in that regard as well!
@@LinuxLea yay liam
@@LinuxLea Checked it out on YT, it seems alright but Perun is in his own class 🤷♂️👍
Completely agree. Russia has learned from prior counteroffensives and entrenched lines, but not necessarily actually improved combined arms operations-- and aligning political goals with military reality.
Vuhledar is a combination of everything. Telegraphed offensive against well defended area. Ukraine has line of sight from high and medium rises, laid out mines, established kill zones, presighted artillery/range, combined artillery, tanks and infantry to counter Russian push, redeployed mines with artillery (not expected by Russia), etc.
And on the Russian side, they rushed the offensive and expended significant resources to achieve the political goals set out, without anything else to support it. No planning to fail, either, with hasty retreats that were even more lethal for the Russians than the pushes itself.
Russia got caught off guard hard
if you look at the terrain around Bakhmut its a similar problem, they look down over vast approaches that you can see something coming from a long way away. Its quite brutal in the sense they sent in 'meat' to find the Ukrainian firing positions and defense works because they will have to wipe them out on the way in. But once they do it means the Russians have an idea of what they need to hit next and its proven effective up to a point and it's used up most of the prison population crazy enough to sign up for Chef Boyarzee's Wild Ride.
The losses on Russia's end is I think significant enough to put them in a 'Not Good' position going into summer, having a lot of guys is one thing, but there's also been some savage losses of their officer corps, so if they're not doing or going to the right places at the right time, they're more or less useless eaters. So if Ukraine can find that reserve of newly trained guys, mix them in with the old hands and use their armour quick enough when conditions are suitable its potentially going to see a lot more territory, material and manpower losses.
Its risky business though so I'm really at a loss to see how 2023 is going to exactly play out in the macro-sense of the overall strategy. Russia were late going into the point of adopting a proper war footing many months into this and it cost them time, people to be trained and a whole lot of assets, also their reserve of cash they had to fund this adventurism is also running out pretty quickly. My guess is that they've probably got 6months left in the kitty if they really run it on a shoestring budget. Past that though, eh its pretty speculative!
The most encouraging thing is Russia not acknowledging failure in Vuhledar - in fact rewarding it. If you're not willing to recognize reality, you're making things needlessly difficult for yourself.
You could argue that pretty much all of Russia's significant defeats/challenges/etc stem from this factor. Putin's assumptions going into the war are a great example, which led to the humiliating defeat around Kyiv. The continued fighting with Kontraktniki only, which meant that Russia had limited ability to leverage its equipment and artillery advantage in the Donbas over summer 2022, leading to at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Ukraine's blatant telegraphing of its interest in Kherson, into which the Russians obligingly sent its best remaining troops, leading Kharkiv Oblast ripe for the picking. The Kherson campaign, which led to Russia humiliatingly retreating after it realized its mauled troops were painfully difficult to resupply, caught on the wrong side of the river.
Every single one of these can be traced to Russian inability to recognize reality for what it is, that Ukraine is a tough, determined and intelligent opponent. Surovikin recognized that reality, but that's dangerous political ground, because it contradicts Putin's underlying logic that Ukraine is a paper tiger, merely a convenient facade constructed by the west, hiding the "reality" that they're misled proto-Russians unable to think for themselves without the firm smack of Muscovite leadership - therefore on the verge of collapse. All that is needed is another push, and they'll fall over. Voluntary retreat conflicts with Putin's worldview. A bad place to be, if you're Surovikin.
So to hear that it's prizes for all the top Russian boys involved in Vuhledar - that all that is needed is to Soviet even harder - that is, perhaps, the best news for Ukraine out of this grim winter. So long as Russia refuses to recognize reality for what it is, it's setting itself up for failure.
Let's hope Ukraine can capitalize on that once again.
@@cv990a4 "Soviet harder" is a term I need to remember.
Reality playing second fiddle to politics is Russia's fundamentally unaddressable flaw. The bullshit is baked into the cake and the party has already started. Only thing left for them to do is take big bites and exclaim how truly delicious it is.
Every Sunday, I drive an hour for a martial arts class, and I listen to your analyses on the way. Thanks so much for the consistently interesting content to look forward to!
40:00 I love the utter dedication with which you continue and expand the Perun cinematic universe.
Sgt. Bicepski dual wielding entrenching tools ... if I had any artistic skill whatsoever, I'd be drawing fanart at this point.
There is Midjourney V4...
Living in the suburbs of a city of ~80k it is absolutely surreal to think about an 8 month battle being fought over a city of my size with no end in sight.
Thank you for talking about the lesser known areas of this war. Bakhmut might be the most important battle if only for its symbolism and sheer casualties, but many other battles have been ongoing. The towns which are reduced to rubble and look like something out of an apocalypse movie are truly harrowing to look at. That said I think it's important everyone to look at the evils of the world and the horrors of war from time to time. Believe me, you don't sound cold or heartless when talking about these things. You sound like someone treating it with the respect it deserves. It's one thing to look at spreadsheets and datatables of loss statistics. It's another to look at the images of villages and towns that look like Hell on Earth and still have the fortitude to keep digging.
As you say, the information war is a big part of this conflict. On behalf of all those of us who you help stay informed, thank you and keep fighting the good fight.
Relatable for sure. I live in a place that's slightly smaller (75,000 people) that's about half the size of Bakhmut and I've found myself trying to imagine what this place would be like if it got the Bakhmut treatment.
Take in to account bakhmut is a very industrial city it’s home to several (formerly) large industrial centers and is probably much larger than a western city of 80,000
Hey Perun, just wanted to tell you how much I appreciate your content! Very seldom has a RUclipsr made me sit in such anticipation for the next Video. I always start to rewatch recent videos by tuesday! Keep up the great work!!
Thanks again Perun. We all really appreciate your work
I was feeling so starved of perun that I had to watch lazerpigg impersonate perun to get my weekly dose of power point
That video was funny.
Those two are my go to RUclips channels
Perun, I knew this is a grim topic for a video when I started watching it, and I'm not going to deny that I didn't have to pause at times because the topic was pretty unsettling, but the fact that you could introduce less levity into it is not your fault. You keep providing the best Ukraine war content on RUclips, and I'm going to continue watching you every single week that this conflict lasts (and probably after it ends, if you keep talking about these topics)
No video this week? I need my weekly Perun powerpoint fix :-(
2K views in 6 freaking minutes.
You're doing great work, Perun.
14k in 26 min.
I would say there are a fair number of people just waiting for the notification to ping.
I agree that as always this was a good video!
However, the math doesn't add up considering the vid is over an hour. Is the algorithm counting it as a view after 30 seconds?
@@ipadista don't remember the cutoff, but 30 seconds - 5 minutes.
As always very informative content. As an old U.S. Army Infantryman I appreciate the in-depth research put into your releases.
And as a note: I laughed out loud at the line, "You just tell the Marines what hill to take and look away so you don't have to watch the violence." HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Go Get Im Jarheads!
I am pretty sure the best way to get Marines to take a hill is to use a mortar to launch a pack of crayons onto the top.
@@luxborealis Marine snack attack.
Thank you! This was excellent. As a former MI professional, I understand the effort it takes to consume the info required to produce this video. Especially when you don't have the resources of a large organization to rely upon. You and ISW are my go-to sources for analysis.
The pictures from places like Marinka are...horrific. Apocalypic.
This is russki mir and this is why Ukraine still fights despite all hardship.
Not a step back… they will hold every inch they can… and the Russian’s pay for every yard they seek to gain
@@jackthorton10 Hate for the enemy can go a very long way in maintaining and even improving morale.
By the time the United States entered into war against the North Vietnamese in 1965, they were facing an enemy that had suffered under the Japanese and the French, and was very, very motivated to be free and independent of foreign influence.
After the USA pulled out of Vietnam, the Chinese invaded, but also failed.
It is obvious by this point that the Kremlin still, after over a year, cannot understand the motivation and will of the Ukrainian people, because they simply refuse to. To acknowledge that Ukrainians are NOT wayward brainwashed Russians but in truth the citizens of a foreign country goes against the Kremlin’s doctrine that has been in place for centuries, since the time of the Romanov Tsars.
@@Mortablunt Donetsk is a fucking paradise compared to Marinka what do you fucking mean?
@@CMY187 Times are a changing, and it clearly shows that Russia will no longer play a role in determining the future of Ukraine’s land and its people
@@jackthorton10 We are witnessing history being made in real-time; the Ukrainian people are now more certain of their national identity than they have ever been, and have vowed to never allow Russia to dictate terms to them ever again.
Georgia, which was invaded by Russia in 2008, is also now standing up for itself; the Georgian people are openly bearing Ukrainian flags and singing the Ukrainian anthem.
And also, there is the Free Russia Legion; thousands of Russians who are fighting alongside the Ukrainians, who are angry and even furious at the Kremlin for what it has done to both Ukraine and Russia, and who have sworn to keep fighting the Kremlin even after Ukraine has driven the Russian military from its territory.
These Russians bear a white-blue-white flag. In my opinion, more news outlets should be covering them.
As bloody as Bakhmut has become, Mariinka looks like something out of the Terminator.
I really enjoy that even listening to your videos out of date by a few months, the general overview of systems this info will remain educational for years
We have become so affixed in Bakhmut, we lost the wider view that russia is failing so bad, we thought them possibly gaining Bakhmut would be a massive victory for them - a bar set so low.
I can sort of imagine these videos on rare occasion being displayed in the military, whenever the official slideshow person takes a day off.
It's good stuff. Even in the US or UK, these slides hit the mark of what's expected of a professional. In places like the Philippines or Mexico, this sets the gold standard of what you want your staff to deliver!
Sunday is no longer Sunday without a Perun video. Thank you for bringing rationality back to a chaotic world if only for an hour a week. How you manage to produce work of this quality week in and week out, whilst I assume having some sort of life is utterly baffling and a little inspiring. Multiple billion pound news organisations with thousands of staff are laughable compared to your amazingly researched carefully crafted and considered content. They should be ashamed. Thank you is all I can say. Thank you for your dedication, reason and logic. I'm glad I found you ❤️
Hear! hear!
I'm so grateful that this channel's audience is made up people who aren't looking for cheerleading or to have their existing beliefs reinforced. They want objective, in-depth analysis that avoids ill-informed speculation. And, of course, Perun delivers a masterclass every week. Places like this are increasingly hard to find.
Seriously? Because what Perun does is clearly just reinforcing anti-Russian bias. And there is a lot of people like him.
@@Princip666 and I'm sure that this is an unbiased analysis from you, Comrade "171 comments on this channel with a consistent theme".
This channel is Nazi cheerleader central, you can’t be serious.
@@Princip666 You can be anti-Russian and not bias
@@Princip666 bullshit. Stating that the Russian military is shit is merely the truth, not an anti-Russian bias.
I look forward to this coverage every week, thanks Perun for the amazing work.
I would like to congratulate Russia on their 1 year anniversary of their 3 day special military operation in Ukraine 👏🇷🇺
I know this is a very nice and well repeated joke at this point, but can we please source where this entire "3 day" idea came from? I get that Russia planned this to be done in a few weeks max, but where exactly did these suppsoed "3 days" expectations come from?
They didn't drop guys into Hostomel and expect weeks long fights to get to them.
@@Kyle-sr6jm Aaaaaah, yes! The Hostomel thing! Totally forgot that one.
tell that to the widows etc.
@Me King Tiger IIRC it's from some alleged captured Russian documents by the Ukrainian forces a few months into the war. I don't know how true it is tho.
29:30 in WW1 the troops were also never far from the rear where they could rest and recuperate, get better food and such. Stark contrast to the trenches.
And they only spent between 7-14 days in the trenches (depending on what army and when). I doubt the guys in Ukraine are so fortuneate
@@stc3145 fortunate enough to stop for a pizza and a drink.
we'd pull off and buy food from the locals in Iraq and Afghanistan too.
54:25 "You don't tell a squad of marines how to take a hill - you tell them you want the hill and then turn away so you don't have to watch the acts of violence that follow".
Gotta be in the top 10 quotes on RUclips 🤣
Your content is something I look forward to each Sunday, thank you for your time and energy that you put into the channel it keeps bringing me back and I learn something new. Thank you Perun.
Woke up earlier than usual today and had to suffer through several hours of a Sunday without perun. But all is well now
My sleep schedule is so non-existent I end up catching every upload anyway
Sunday mornings after chores is my weekly time for video games… this man’s voice is now inexorably interlinked with stellaris in my mind.
I was playing Borderlands 2 while listening when the video dropped 😂
If I'm gaming while listening to Perun, I usually play AOE2DE.
The thing that interests me the most about the training and disposition of Ukrainian troops the most that you covered in the evolving tactics segment is how western trained units will/are being integrated into the wider Ukrainian army. I have to imagine that these are units with more capacity for complex tasking and manoeuvres, so the way they are integrated into the wider army is critical to how they will perform
From I've heard the Ukrainians are building up a new seperate army (counting 60K - 90K - I dont recall how many brigades it was, but you can work it out if look up how many soldiers a Ukrainian brigade counts) with their own tasks (most likely they will conduct the counter offensive in April / May) rather than resupplying currently existing armies (those are probably resupplied with soldiers trained in Ukraine by Ukrainian troops).
@@bohomazdesign725 Makes me wonder just how difficult a job it must have been for Marshal Berthier as administrator of the entire French military. Napoleon himself probably said it best; “No one else could replace him.”
There have been reports here in Germany that a delegation of Ukrainian soldiers are at one of the biggest training grounds in Munster, taking the 3 months Leopard training course in 5-6 weeks, 12 hours a day, 7 days a week. MASSIVE respect for the motivation and dedication.
@@xred_ray8009 If it takes three months to transition a tank crew over to your tank - you're doing something wrong. Three weeks to train the crews followed by a 1-2 week-long gunnery cycle should be all it takes to produce 'qualified tank crews' if you're starting with people who were trained to operate another type of tank.
@@colincampbell767 I think the 3 month course is the normal length for untrained crews. And there is a huge difference in using an old soviet tank to a Leopard II. Like that you don't need to stop to fire and you also don't need to fire 4 shots at one target.
That is stuff close to muscle memory, you can't overwrite that in 1-2 weeks. And don't forget that there will be a lot less Leopards than there were Soviet tanks, you have to make every single one count. If a few weeks more increase battle worth by just 5%, that's still worth it, at least as long as the tanks aren't used in a fight anyway.
It would be a tragedy if this war ends in anything but a russian defeat, for those lost in bucha, marinka and other cities
Justice will be served, loss is of course tragic but some measures of justice will hopefully be served to those who perpetrated these vile acts
There's no "justice" in warfare, only strength and logistics. I highly doubt Ukraine will ever have the strength to repel the Russians back to post-war lines; the question is only if Russia has the logistics to support their strength to achieve whatever they can politically claim as a victory before things go tits up.
@@fakeplaystore7991 Russia is weaker than they appear, and the Ukrainians are motivated and fighting for something they actually believe in, it will take awhile but they will win
@@fakeplaystore7991 ukraine will have the strength and the wits.
Once ukraine gets it's western airforce things will accelerate quickly.
Steiner will come and put everything in order and he’s bringing the ghost of Kyiv!
Was just having anxiety that this man wouldn't do me a solid this Sunday like he does every Sunday,
Thanks Perun
I was thinking a band of kangaroos and koalas with Z logos stole his computer.
Perun is a privilege, not a right. Patience young Padawan Learner.
He's very regular; after all his name is an anagram of "prune".
I was hitting the refresh regularly. It was almost as bad as my Hamxiety at Christmas.
P.s. hit that notification bell 🔔
Haha..simplifying the PMC payroll. That was funny. And true.😊
You really are resetting the bar for war time reporting. The research, consideration, and balanced view you take is so much more helpful to revealing the realities of how these situation play out than almost any other reporter I've seen on the subject. Contrast yourself with those like 'The Russian Dude' who just scrolls a map daily and frames everything in a 'Ukraine will win anytime this week' hype view, it makes your work even more important.
I don't mean to throw stones at the guy or any of the others really but its hard to see how they retain viewers past the first week when their hyperbole fails to meet reality.
Agreed. The guy is a force of nature.
I'm so glad to see a new video in my feed. That just made my sunday.
Thanks perun an best wishes from germany.
These videos are truly the highlight of my hungover sundays. Thank you Perun!
Well worth the wait for,
A very very neutral view of this ridiculous war with stats to back it up.
Well done!!
Look forward to your next video.
Cheers to Perun for making us happy with another weekly in-depth analysis
i like how nowadays you have to know random youtube channels to get reliable information. Media quality has taken a dive of a cliff.
Well, not _random_ RUclips channels. You have to find the reliable ones. :)
@@Bill_Garthright fair, i meant more like you cannot at face value assume that the youtuber with the name Perun is the one who knows da way.
That's because telling everyone, for example, that the Russians are fighting with AKs and Shovels doesn't get clicks. You don't make money. But telling everyone that Russia only has shovels left does get clicks. You make money. You can find "military" RUclips channels that post videos every other day with titles like "American 101st Airborne Deployed to Ukraine?!" because the general public are morons who click on that stuff and give them money. There are also political motivations. Nobody wants to watch President Zelenskyy's 45 minutes speech, so it's easy for certain Republicans to take a clip of his speech out of context and purposely spread misinformation to rally people against supporting Ukraine
@@knuppel8875
_you cannot at face value assume that the youtuber with the name Perun_
I didn't. Indeed, I don't assume that about _any_ people on RUclips. I listen to what they have to say, first.
Pick the RUclipsr who gives their references, emphasises the error bars (then repeats with a comment on the fog of war). Who puts every statistic in context.
Not sure how you find them in the first place but that's how you recognise the Peruns of this world.
I think saying that "media quality has dived off a cliff" assumes it was on a cliff in the first place.
When I hear the name "General Sirsky" I automatically try to figure out what the pun is, and assume its similar to "Private Constriptovich"
"That is Sir General Sirsky!"
"Yes Sir. Sirsky. General Sirsky, I mean!"
I guess Perun was running out of crime and corruption words to make up names from, and resorted to Sir.
Private Constriptovitch and General Olagarchov are still my favorite generic stand-in names I've ever heard.
@@RipOffProductionsLLC Wasn't there a lieutenant or captain as well? I knew I should've written Perun's standin-names down, they're awesome!
@@cy-one Colonel Corruptovitch and Sergeant Bicepsky are also part of the crew.
Greatly appreciate the time and effort you put into these presentations, you highlight issues that can easily be missed due to the quantity of posts being made.
I love that this series has taught me what an effective powerpoint presentation should be
I really thank you for helping us orienting ourselves on these issues. It's a great help.
When your allies are wondering if the russian launched a offensive, your doing good
@@Mortablunt Oh, they are used. Logistics is always a manpower-heavy concern.
Besides, seeing how the 100k are getting slaughtered, I doubt the rest of it would make a difference.
@@Mortablunt russians arent about to do Japanese style s***ide offensive from 1945 in China...these troops arent doing nothing and are for the most part needed where they are
92k views in 4 hours is insane. Especially for a channel with under half a million subs. Great job!
''War, war never changes significantly every of 24 hours'' -Perun 2023
As always, Perun provides excellent insights into what it's like to be in the Russian army. Second only to watching Spaceballs.
There's about as much intellect and moral decay as shown by President Scroob that's for sure!
My man Kofman literally visited Bakmut. Heck of an analyst. Great video as usual.
That picture of the Russian Minister of Defense and a top ranking Russian General sitting in front of a repurposed advertisement for War Thunder is worth a thousand words.
I look forward to your videos every Sunday. I also appreciate that there is no preamble...you get right to business. Thanks for these great presentations.
Great work, brother. 💪 The occasional rough edges and machining marks of your early work seem to have polished up beautifully. 👊
Goodness, I caught this within the first twenty minutes of it's release by sheer happenstance.
Lucky, lucky me. Can't get enough of Perun's powerpoint lectures.
Marinka looks like a warhammer 40k depiction of a battle against the forces of chaos.
Perun really is fucking amazing. Getting consistent views that either almost reach his sub count, or greatly exceed it, is incredible. Really shows the quality of the content and thirst for it as well.
Saying "Ukrainian morale is about to collapse" is like saying "Irish morale is about to collapse". By now, everyone should know just how dumb of a statement that is.
Bingo
Even after Mariupol where morale was supposed to fall it didn’t, it stayed the same
@@enriqueperezarce5485 In fact, when Mariupol fell, the population did not have bad thoughts about it and a drop in morale. Because everyone understood that it was necessary, the defense of Mariupol gave time for many units to form and deploy, and even when the Azov regiment itself was under siege, it formed units for the blockade from volunteers, which after some time turned into highly motivated units and brigades
Turns out terror bombing doesn't work, guess the russians missed out on that lesson
@@deezboyeed6764 Everyone who tries terror bombing: sure, it failed for all those other guys, but THIS TIME it will work!
a 1 hour 9 min video get posted... people after 5 minutes: ~Another great video Perun! :D
what do you mean? I click on these so fast I have enough time to watch them 3 times before they even upload
Were they wrong
@@nicholasackroyd4460 nah, now after seeing it I can say that it was another excellent video
Tbh he has never put out a bad one lmao.
@@nicholasackroyd4460 no but they may have been bots, or like-farming
After Perun’s first half a dozen videos or so- I began to ask myself, “will there be enough topics and/or issues for Perun to continually put out quality content?”
I’m glad any fears or worries have been thoroughly extinguished. Thank you Perun, I think I speak for many when I say your in depth analysis and work in general, have been extremely enjoyable!
Personally I got bored of this guy's drawn-out drivel after about 3 videos. I just watch the first and last five minutes now and leave a dislike, when the algorithm keeps pushing this stuff on me.
"Modern Art installation" is the best description of those discount dragon's teeth fortifications I've yet heard.
I wish this was just youtube but on all other subjects what could this man learn us about isis, Afghanistan, ww2 ,ongoing conflicts elsewhere?
Best youtuber ever?
Yeah, can't wait to watch, keep on good work Perun! ;-). Greetings from Poland!
I cant believe how quickly you can pump out such long and high quality videos. The man.
I have been following many RUclips reports and individual commentators for the past 11 months. My observation is that...in general... it seems that the mighty Russian army continues to do the same thing over and over expecting a different result. I must say you are the most analytical and you place the proper emphasis on not overreacting or taking one report as gospel. Thanks
We call them insane not because they are doing something we do not like, rather because they are acting insane.
Peter Zeihan may be a hack fraud but he has a good zinger about Russia: "they just throw more bodies at their problems". According to him, Russia never fought a war in which they didn't lost at least 500k men, and this one barely touched the 100k mark yet. It's terrifying.
@@fakeplaystore7991 Well, I don't think the Chechen Wars got so bloody, but still, five-figure losses in a backwater province probably speaks volumes about Russia's general strategic acumen. (Leans back in armchair and puffs on bubble pipe)
Wow. Great video. I’m on my second watching now.
As an Aussie, & amateur student of both economics and military history I’ve found ALL of your videos, to date, easy to follow with a clear narrative and well within my sphere of understanding.
This is the first video I am struggling to fully comprehend.
I love this, and I love how you are stretching me.
I wish you could do a hand over / hand back colab with someone like the operations room, so I can follow this more easily.
Keep up the amazing work.
I do not wait for many things from the net but this is what I crave for every week !
Thank you for your analysis. I always look forward to these videos every week.
Love falling asleep to your videos on a Sunday afternoon 🙃