My computer failed to record Anna's video properly, so I had to use her still image. Totally my fault. Give it a good listen anyway, both Anna and Dr. Ed have some very insightful remarks from opposite ends of the spectrum! Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Haha Love to have Anna in real time on the next interview, please. First off, employment is ALWAYS at highs just before a recession. Even more ridiculous, how on God's green earth can you be optimistic when fuel prices are at "all-time-highs", as Ed likes to state over and over. Even worser, the demographics are just pisspoor. Tell me HOW the Saudis are going to force oil prices down, Ed? I'm hearing conclusions and ZERO evidence to support his argument.
It’s always good to have a financial plan in the this economy so you don’t lose so much. I work with a licensed planner and fixed-income strategist in LA. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income
I have come across him already. Yea I was a cook for 4 years and was going to start school to become a full chef and then the pandemic hit literally a week before classes were supposed to start. So yea being in the hospitality industry I lost almost everything. So I had to start over. Things changed when I came across Chris Stewart who is a disciplined trader. I have been able to make profits consistently. This pandemic helped me take my finances more seriously. Thanks for your help once again Chris
I work as a diesel technician in the trucking industry. My shop is located right on route 80, excellent location for a truck garage. We don't have hardly any work. You want a good idea how the economy is doing? Look to the trucking industry. 70 percent of our economy is based on consumerism. Fleets are not spending money like they did from 2014 to 2020, they aren't making money so they are not sending trucks in for major repairs, they are trying to do more work in house to keep operating costs down. People aren't buying stuff, they are gonna buy a hell of a lot less with sky rocketing interest rates, stagnant wages, inflation is through the roof many goods and services increasing 20-40 percent in just a couple of years, oh and and debt servicing for student loans are back, ~216 billion dollars annually sucked out of the economy. I would be preparing for the worst. Our electric rate doubled on our home. I just insulated the exterior walls on the house because I fully expect natural gas to get more expensive this winter.
Trucking really sucks right now. Fuel up, insurance up, equipment up, taxes up, repairs up, but rates are down. Everyone has been cutting each others throats just to make payments. This will continue until more truckers go under like Yellow. Allegedly Yellow took a ton of govt money then took a lot of freight at below cost to show how much they were growing (which gave execs bonuses). Then the govt money ran out. More will follow when the cheap money is all used up.
I can't see a boom with 10yr rates nearing 5% and the banks with $600B of unrealized losses on UST's. That doesn't even include their loan portfolio. The best case is a soft landing
You are better than this! We have RUclips and the internet very well both developed now. Back during the dot com early 2000s crash and during 2008 great recession RUclips and the internet wasn't what it is now. The media and the FED need to promote "soft landing". RUclips old interviews from late 2007 and early 2008 about how no crash was coming.
Will not be a hard landing but will be a huge crash followed by fire and explosions. Huge debt is the problem, the can cannot be kicked the road forever, and soon we will run out of road.
0:17: 📈 The average American should be optimistic about their employment and real wages next year, as historical data shows a trend of soft landings during recessions. 4:53: 📊 The FED projects a 3.8% unemployment rate towards the end of this year or early next year, but there are asymmetric risks to this forecast due to the nonlinear nature of the unemployment rate. 9:53: 💼 The speaker discusses the concept of a rolling recession and its impact on different sectors of the economy. 14:35: 📉 The labor market will continue to add real wage increases and provide consumers with wealth and power to spend, despite the possibility of a recession. 19:04: 💰 Consumers and firms are relying more on borrowing as credit markets normalize. 23:43: 👴🍽💰 Baby boomers are spending their retirement savings on dining out and healthcare. 33:09: 💼 The speaker discusses the impact of remote work on productivity and expresses pessimism about it. 37:41: 📉 The speaker believes that a recession is likely to happen sooner rather than later due to the actions of the FED and the lag in monetary policy. Recap by Tammy AI
Another great interview and debate, David! I love that you're bringing on opposing views to respectfully debate their opinions. Mixed with the stellar single interviews you have is increasingly making your channel second to none!
Two scholarly intellects, the finer products of 2 most glorious cultures, debating a highly controversial topic in a most civil manner. There persists the fading hope for a civil society. But, David should address both as Drs. Anna and Ed.
Unemployment is usually at peak lows.....................right before a recession. Old top that doesn't factor in inflation with wage growth won't manage a cent of my money.
The difference is that the US is running an 8% deficit right now. There won't a recession as long as the government keeps spending. It's impossible to have a recession as long as the deficit spending offsets private sector weakness. The fed is no longer dominant. Government fiscal spending is dominant.
I think the government has gotten to the end of the road with their spending. Of course I thought this a while back as well. The thing is the interest rates are now regulated and the interest on the debt is ridiculously high.
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or markt condition, but such execution are usuallv carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08' crash
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, invt-advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded nearly 300%, summing up to 7-figure as of today.
this is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy
Mayra Femia Hetrick is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over two decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info.
this recommendation came at right time, very much appreciate it. curiously inputted her full name on my browser and found her site top search, no bs.. over 20 years of experience is certainly striking!
You must be a faux woke kool-aid drinker. Probably eat fake news by the spoonful and conveniently forget when they're endlessly wrong... Then you blame the consensus because your terrible fake news based investments fail...
This old dude seems outa touch and isn't in the trenches with normal people. He is off the mark and clearly is in a bubble. Cant believe he is a professional, mind blowing.
Just check the us debt clock via "time machine" in the top right corner for year 2027. The interest on debt approximately 3 trillion and rising, tax revenue less than 4 trillion and going down. Defense/war 1 trillion, social security 1.8 trillion, medicare 2.38 trillion. Self explanatory.
Thanks for the great discussion David. I lean with Anna but think some things are being missed and or made more complex than need be. When the 40 year bond bull bubble popped about 2 years ago, rates drove out of their all time lows (long trend channel) to what is approaching a 3 fold increase. This soundly marks the end of a major credit expansion/debt bubble cycle attendant by overall unprecedented debt at all levels, a seriously overvalued and aging stock bull and the largest bubble in housing ever seen. Add to that very low unemployment (nowhere to go but up) and the most inverted yield curve since 1929/1973 (good indicator of major recessions) and GD levels of M2 money supply (just to name a few) and you have many signals pointing to a major contraction in credit and economic activity. As well, the wild rate increases we have seen are largely not fed driven but bond/commercial bank driven as this heavy a foot on the economic/financial brake peddle is borne out of fear rather than reason and will almost certainly result in a very hard landing.
I am all on Anna's side. I agree with anyone who quotes Milton Friedman. But I agree with her view, debt is at the highest levels ever but the money supply is decreasing. So how are we growing if money supply is decreasing.
Real wages all time record high???? What? Yes if you don't care about purchasing power and monetary inflation, divide M2 by the best performing assets and you get FLAT, JACK SQUAT NADA
This is the thing that just really blows my mind. We have alot of very highly educated and very knowledgeable economist and yet they have very different view points. How do they analyze the same data and see very different outcomes? 🤷♂️
Government and Federal Reserve intervention can postpone the inevitable debt deleveraging event. For instance the BTFP program was setup to stabilize the banking sector, the better question is can this kick this can further without pain now.
@TomTom-du5qv if highly educated economist who have been doing that profession for many years at a very high level can't agree, ummmm who are you? You better be the guy who built Yale business economy department.
Anna brought some bars but Ed had charisma and crowd control, also real talked her hard in the 2nd and third. Great battle. 2-1 edge to the bulls but might need to re-watch post recession to see how Anna material aged
I do not envy economists their task. Even though it's heavily quantitative, there are so many indicators and statistics that one could make a reasonable case either way as these two did depending on the weighting placed on each number. Decision fatigue begins to set in and it becomes more and more attractive to just pick a portfolio to buy and hold and not bet against the free world.
She is correct, spending or consumption are really bad indicators. Its why rent-to-own and buy now and pay later companies do so well. Americans are not smart spenders.
24:10 then just creating more issues for younger ones and higher the average fees hence inflation. I was in the US last week. Couldn’t believe the poverty in many cities and the crazy crazy food prices .
Everything Yardeni says is what they said in 1929. Not a joke. September 1929 looked like raging growth with good interest rates and the inverted yield curve for 2 years wasn't inverted for most of it if you account for inflation. I like Yardeni but he's smoking Hopium.
Yardeni fell for the 'it's not here yet so it's not happening' nonsense...that was all just papered over by YoY growth in gov't spending...the pain is coming my man.
My computer failed to record Anna's video properly, so I had to use her still image. Totally my fault. Give it a good listen anyway, both Anna and Dr. Ed have some very insightful remarks from opposite ends of the spectrum!
Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Yardani is a scam artist, big brother’s propaganda guy.
The fact that Anna was smiling through the whole interview makes me feel less bearish on the economy
Haha Love to have Anna in real time on the next interview, please. First off, employment is ALWAYS at highs just before a recession. Even more ridiculous, how on God's green earth can you be optimistic when fuel prices are at "all-time-highs", as Ed likes to state over and over. Even worser, the demographics are just pisspoor. Tell me HOW the Saudis are going to force oil prices down, Ed? I'm hearing conclusions and ZERO evidence to support his argument.
It’s always good to have a financial plan in the this economy so you don’t lose so much. I work with a licensed planner and fixed-income strategist in LA. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income
People downplay planner’s role, until they are burnt by their mistakes. That’s why I’ve been working with expert planners like CHRIS RYAN STEWART
I wasn’t sure with investing money for a new car, but I’ve made over $58k since 2022 from learning from Chris and still bought my dream car. Thanks😭
Is it possible to get in contact with a person like that?
CHRIS RYAN STEWART
GOOGLE the name
I have come across him already. Yea I was a cook for 4 years and was going to start school to become a full chef and then the pandemic hit literally a week before classes were supposed to start. So yea being in the hospitality industry I lost almost everything. So I had to start over. Things changed when I came across Chris Stewart who is a disciplined trader. I have been able to make profits consistently. This pandemic helped me take my finances more seriously. Thanks for your help once again Chris
I work as a diesel technician in the trucking industry. My shop is located right on route 80, excellent location for a truck garage. We don't have hardly any work. You want a good idea how the economy is doing? Look to the trucking industry. 70 percent of our economy is based on consumerism. Fleets are not spending money like they did from 2014 to 2020, they aren't making money so they are not sending trucks in for major repairs, they are trying to do more work in house to keep operating costs down. People aren't buying stuff, they are gonna buy a hell of a lot less with sky rocketing interest rates, stagnant wages, inflation is through the roof many goods and services increasing 20-40 percent in just a couple of years, oh and and debt servicing for student loans are back, ~216 billion dollars annually sucked out of the economy.
I would be preparing for the worst. Our electric rate doubled on our home. I just insulated the exterior walls on the house because I fully expect natural gas to get more expensive this winter.
Trucking really sucks right now. Fuel up, insurance up, equipment up, taxes up, repairs up, but rates are down. Everyone has been cutting each others throats just to make payments. This will continue until more truckers go under like Yellow. Allegedly Yellow took a ton of govt money then took a lot of freight at below cost to show how much they were growing (which gave execs bonuses). Then the govt money ran out. More will follow when the cheap money is all used up.
Thanks for sharing your insight, that's invaluable
I find so much value in your videos, David. Thank you all participants.
Yardeni saying "transitory" with a straight face is absolutely hilarious 😂.
Yardeni is a cnbc talking head.
It's not the beginning of a boom when central bank's close to the end of raising rates. On the contrary, it's closer to a bust.
I'm a macroeconmist, which essentially means that I have a degree in being wrong.
Like these bull/bear videos. Reinforces what I believe. Anna Wong is the ONLY person on Bloomberg that I like listening to.
Anna wins
Anna's back again! I like her very much.
I can't see a boom with 10yr rates nearing 5% and the banks with $600B of unrealized losses on UST's. That doesn't even include their loan portfolio. The best case is a soft landing
The best is a regular recession
You are better than this! We have RUclips and the internet very well both developed now. Back during the dot com early 2000s crash and during 2008 great recession RUclips and the internet wasn't what it is now. The media and the FED need to promote "soft landing". RUclips old interviews from late 2007 and early 2008 about how no crash was coming.
@chrisginoc this is as old as time. 1929 they said everything was good. The June highs in 1929 were the new lows of a bright future. Can't make it up
@@IDNeon357 Exactly! The truth would cause fear and panic
I don't know how anyone can't see a huge recession coming. Debt ATH, Savings ATL, student loans, senile politicians, just throw the whole year away
Rhode Island energy (Electric) is going up by 25% in October for consumers.
Is the old guy the Biden’s admin chief economist🙄🥴🫠
Anna is absolutely right.
David is killing it with these interviews. Amazing work.
Will not be a hard landing but will be a huge crash followed by fire and explosions. Huge debt is the problem, the can cannot be kicked the road forever, and soon we will run out of road.
Yes the Landing line is at the end and the breaks does not work ( debt all time high )
Has Ed ever been bearish. That's why he is on CNBC regularly.
You Do Great Work David !
0:17: 📈 The average American should be optimistic about their employment and real wages next year, as historical data shows a trend of soft landings during recessions.
4:53: 📊 The FED projects a 3.8% unemployment rate towards the end of this year or early next year, but there are asymmetric risks to this forecast due to the nonlinear nature of the unemployment rate.
9:53: 💼 The speaker discusses the concept of a rolling recession and its impact on different sectors of the economy.
14:35: 📉 The labor market will continue to add real wage increases and provide consumers with wealth and power to spend, despite the possibility of a recession.
19:04: 💰 Consumers and firms are relying more on borrowing as credit markets normalize.
23:43: 👴🍽💰 Baby boomers are spending their retirement savings on dining out and healthcare.
33:09: 💼 The speaker discusses the impact of remote work on productivity and expresses pessimism about it.
37:41: 📉 The speaker believes that a recession is likely to happen sooner rather than later due to the actions of the FED and the lag in monetary policy.
Recap by Tammy AI
Thanks for the timestamps
Anna is absolutely right
The only thing Ed got right was that boomers have it easy.
How can people expect a boom under current conditions, i can't understand this level optimism
Another great interview and debate, David! I love that you're bringing on opposing views to respectfully debate their opinions. Mixed with the stellar single interviews you have is increasingly making your channel second to none!
"It's different this time." - Yardeni 2023
And he is wrong again
This is a great dialogue. Flexibility between the speakers and managed in a respectful way so makes it much more enjoyable and engaging.
David neglected to mention that Anna is the staring contest world champion and also the world's leading ventriloquist.
Excellent interview👍
Two scholarly intellects, the finer products of 2 most glorious cultures, debating a highly controversial topic in a most civil manner. There persists the fading hope for a civil society. But, David should address both as Drs. Anna and Ed.
Unemployment is usually at peak lows.....................right before a recession. Old top that doesn't factor in inflation with wage growth won't manage a cent of my money.
That was an awesome battle! That was packed with tons of knowledge. Thanks.
Excellent presentation. Very compelling points and counter-points by both guests.
Thank you.
The difference is that the US is running an 8% deficit right now. There won't a recession as long as the government keeps spending. It's impossible to have a recession as long as the deficit spending offsets private sector weakness. The fed is no longer dominant. Government fiscal spending is dominant.
I don't think I've thought about that point as much as I should have
I think the government has gotten to the end of the road with their spending. Of course I thought this a while back as well. The thing is the interest rates are now regulated and the interest on the debt is ridiculously high.
absolutely absurd and wrong take. So, if the government keeps spending money they don’t have unproductively, no recession. 🤡
I vote for Anna.
Nothing tastes better than a $ 30 hamburger, where is the beef? So sorry, we eat cockroaches now for protein.
Great content as always David. 👍🏼
Great interview as ever David, my head agrees with Ed but my heart is with Anna.
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or markt condition, but such execution are usuallv carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08' crash
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, invt-advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded nearly 300%, summing up to 7-figure as of today.
this is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy
Mayra Femia Hetrick is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over two decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info.
this recommendation came at right time, very much appreciate it. curiously inputted her full name on my browser and found her site top search, no bs.. over 20 years of experience is certainly striking!
That guy’s narrative of babyboomers having too much money is so out of touch w reality. I know a lot of boomers living on $1200 a month, often less.
SUPERB GUESTS AND INTERVIEW! BRAVO 👏
If Anna Wong has a PhD why is she not introduced as a Dr.
Yardani is a scam artist, big brother’s propaganda guy.
You must be a faux woke kool-aid drinker. Probably eat fake news by the spoonful and conveniently forget when they're endlessly wrong... Then you blame the consensus because your terrible fake news based investments fail...
I like this format i loved the last one u did as well as this
She didnt blink once
Those saying recession is not coming are looking at all the wrong concurrent and lagging data not the leading indicators...
Excellent!!
This old dude seems outa touch and isn't in the trenches with normal people. He is off the mark and clearly is in a bubble. Cant believe he is a professional, mind blowing.
The recession comes once the yield curve un-inverts and it’s still inverted
Correct. It is starting to un invert. Give it 3 to 6 months
Anna, one of my favourites
Thanks all. No idea what is going to happen but cases well presented and moderated.
Great show David I'm still a fan
Great new haircut. Well done, David.
The great thing is, no matter what question that is asked, whatever statement is made, Anna seems cheerful 😂
Bet it all on Red folks👍
Just check the us debt clock via "time machine" in the top right corner for year 2027. The interest on debt approximately 3 trillion and rising, tax revenue less than 4 trillion and going down. Defense/war 1 trillion, social security 1.8 trillion, medicare 2.38 trillion. Self explanatory.
It's interesting, love this one very much!🤘
He’s wrong, she’s right…
Thanks for the great discussion David. I lean with Anna but think some things are being missed and or made more complex than need be. When the 40 year bond bull bubble popped about 2 years ago, rates drove out of their all time lows (long trend channel) to what is approaching a 3 fold increase. This soundly marks the end of a major credit expansion/debt bubble cycle attendant by overall unprecedented debt at all levels, a seriously overvalued and aging stock bull and the largest bubble in housing ever seen. Add to that very low unemployment (nowhere to go but up) and the most inverted yield curve since 1929/1973 (good indicator of major recessions) and GD levels of M2 money supply (just to name a few) and you have many signals pointing to a major contraction in credit and economic activity. As well, the wild rate increases we have seen are largely not fed driven but bond/commercial bank driven as this heavy a foot on the economic/financial brake peddle is borne out of fear rather than reason and will almost certainly result in a very hard landing.
Anna is not a sell out
I believe Anna is definitely not wong
I am all on Anna's side. I agree with anyone who quotes Milton Friedman. But I agree with her view, debt is at the highest levels ever but the money supply is decreasing. So how are we growing if money supply is decreasing.
Real wages all time record high???? What?
Yes if you don't care about purchasing power and monetary inflation, divide M2 by the best performing assets and you get FLAT, JACK SQUAT NADA
Jesus David, love seeing the heavy hitters on
I learned that there may or may not be a recession.
This is the thing that just really blows my mind. We have alot of very highly educated and very knowledgeable economist and yet they have very different view points. How do they analyze the same data and see very different outcomes? 🤷♂️
Economists never agree on anything
@@doug849 🤷♂️
Government and Federal Reserve intervention can postpone the inevitable debt deleveraging event. For instance the BTFP program was setup to stabilize the banking sector, the better question is can this kick this can further without pain now.
@TomTom-du5qv if highly educated economist who have been doing that profession for many years at a very high level can't agree, ummmm who are you? You better be the guy who built Yale business economy department.
I wouldn't believe a Banker. So my vote would go to Anna's assessment as it is more objective.
Clear and understandable, Thank You Folks
Anna brought some bars but Ed had charisma and crowd control, also real talked her hard in the 2nd and third.
Great battle. 2-1 edge to the bulls but might need to re-watch post recession to see how Anna material aged
I do not envy economists their task. Even though it's heavily quantitative, there are so many indicators and statistics that one could make a reasonable case either way as these two did depending on the weighting placed on each number. Decision fatigue begins to set in and it becomes more and more attractive to just pick a portfolio to buy and hold and not bet against the free world.
Thumbs up if you believe this video should be celebrated in RUclips Rewind!
Wong: really clear and on point
2nd after David
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
I have not seen real wages going up
15:25 agree. Until we really hit the wall
I keep thinking I'm watching CNN on this channel with the red branding 🤔
6:15 excellent points
Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC WEX55T and ETH
She is correct, spending or consumption are really bad indicators. Its why rent-to-own and buy now and pay later companies do so well. Americans are not smart spenders.
This was just awesome, nice work David! I was literally hoping for something just like this. Maybe try to get Danielle DiMartino in next vs any bull.
Productivity up, wrong, its gougeflation, companies have higher profits with less production, its a question of long that can last
Great, great content!
Thanks 😊! 😶
The lady is correct, we are heading for a hard landing
Wait there’s still a bill debate? Bull is dead. Long dead
What is the name of this indicator talk about at 20min30sec of the video
24:10 then just creating more issues for younger ones and higher the average fees hence inflation. I was in the US last week. Couldn’t believe the poverty in many cities and the crazy crazy food prices .
Yardeni was making the exact same arguments in 2006.
If, BIG IF US government has a balanced budget next year. We are looking at Great Depression.
weird having one on video and one on audio
Wen #Rumble?
The rich do get a soft landing and the poor a wipeout , OR do you have a job or not 🤷♂️
Real wages????
20:43 They're called 'coincident economic indicators' for a reason. They tell you what is, not what will be. Yeesh his arguments are terrible...
Everything Yardeni says is what they said in 1929. Not a joke. September 1929 looked like raging growth with good interest rates and the inverted yield curve for 2 years wasn't inverted for most of it if you account for inflation.
I like Yardeni but he's smoking Hopium.
Prodctivity where?😂
It's all based on free money..nothing else..no Free money..no recovery
Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and WEX55T only, maybe a little BNB.
thought it was creepy at first Anna was just making a creepy smile. but then realized it was a picture
25:15 Not sure how positive GDP growth is going to happen when oil hits over $150 a barrel in 2024. Enjoy the Decline 😎🍿
Harryyyyyy Denttttttt
Yardeni fell for the 'it's not here yet so it's not happening' nonsense...that was all just papered over by YoY growth in gov't spending...the pain is coming my man.