Gary Shilling Warns Fed Tightening Could Trigger A Recession

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  • Опубликовано: 9 фев 2025

Комментарии • 229

  • @ynocoolnamesleft
    @ynocoolnamesleft 6 лет назад +17

    nice to hear an interviewer not interrupt

  • @Krath1988
    @Krath1988 6 лет назад +41

    This talk is OUTSTANDING! I wish everyone interviewed dropped this depth of knowledge in such a short time.

    • @David_Lloyd-Jones
      @David_Lloyd-Jones 6 лет назад +1

      Total flim-flam. The reason the US economy is on the brink of disaster is that -- as his supporters tell us over and over -- Trump is a wrecking ball.
      A trillion dollar budget deficit on top of a tight economy on top of a trillion dollar tax-give-away repatriation of overseas profits adds up to disaster in waiting. A sugar high now, diabets later.

    • @creativebobbo
      @creativebobbo 6 лет назад

      Yup. All Trumps fault. Has nothing to do with repeal of Glass-Steagall, outsourcing for the last 30 years, community reinvestment act or bubble after bubble fueled by the FED or stock buy backs that started with the easy money from Q.E. Nope. None of that matters. 2 years of Trump destroyed everything.

    • @hardy2175
      @hardy2175 6 лет назад

      @@creativebobbo no but Trump makes it worse and sell you guys as magic and you guys buy it.

    • @creativebobbo
      @creativebobbo 6 лет назад +1

      @@hardy2175 Actually I don't buy anything. Our government was hijacked a long time ago and more recently the news media. His own party didn't want him to win. I don't think any of them expected him to win at all. They should take his win as a hint that the people are fed up with do nothing, politics as usual. I'm getting close to retirement so I am less inclined to care as I have less skin in the game. My only hope is that the generations younger than myself take off the blinders put there by the media, and see beyond the divisive tactics being used on them. A bad economy put the Nazis In power. Don't think a similar shift in politics is out of the question here. In laymens terms the news is bullshit. All of it. You must know that deep down or you wouldn't be watching this RUclips channel. The point I was trying to make was that this train wreck of an economy was decades in the making.

    • @m.c8038
      @m.c8038 6 лет назад +4

      Listen to Peter Schiff instead !

  • @SGspecial84
    @SGspecial84 6 лет назад

    Business insider is the only company that doesn't interrupt the interviewee. Glad they have time to speak their mind.

  • @twaters57
    @twaters57 6 лет назад +51

    The unemployment rate is low because they stopped counting long term unemployed. if the unemployment rate was calculated the old way, the unemployment rate would be over 20%. You can ignore reality but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

    • @eh8164
      @eh8164 6 лет назад

      www.multpl.com/us-long-term-unemployment-rate

    • @eh8164
      @eh8164 6 лет назад

      www.multpl.com/us-employment-population-ratio

    • @BrockJamesStory
      @BrockJamesStory 6 лет назад +2

      i look at labor force participation which is 62 percent

    • @deceiver123m
      @deceiver123m 6 лет назад

      Next they can change what employment means.

    • @BrockJamesStory
      @BrockJamesStory 6 лет назад +1

      @Phoenix labor force participation is at 62 percent wake up that's a fact!!!! Also yield curve has started to invert the 2 & 3 year book D's are paying more than the 5 we're in some deep dog shit

  • @pangmeister
    @pangmeister 6 лет назад +1

    bring this guy back. He is making sense.

  • @conmigocarolinadenorte5558
    @conmigocarolinadenorte5558 6 лет назад

    Gary Shilling the smartest man out there! He knows his business, great interview.

  • @threeone6012
    @threeone6012 6 лет назад

    Gary Shilling is a genius, thanks so much for the interview!

  • @2-worlds-on-earth
    @2-worlds-on-earth 6 лет назад +3

    Very well analysed

  • @mag67uk
    @mag67uk 5 лет назад

    Great interview, this guy fully understands what has / is going on

  • @sk9905
    @sk9905 6 лет назад

    What a great interview! Thank you

  • @TheJSmithBA
    @TheJSmithBA 6 лет назад +6

    Wow, what a genius statement...."Fed tightening could trigger a recession". Who would have thought such a thing was possible?

    • @jimb5421
      @jimb5421 6 лет назад

      Thank God it's not the low life's that run the stock market that cause it! Ha ha.

  • @Me2EyeSay
    @Me2EyeSay 6 лет назад

    I can listen to this guy all day.

  • @tuckert3ig
    @tuckert3ig 6 лет назад

    Insightful interview

  • @Citizen-of-theworld
    @Citizen-of-theworld 6 лет назад

    This guy is a walking financial encyclopaedia. Amazing amount of information from a real expert

  • @jooky87
    @jooky87 6 лет назад

    Times change, but ideas remain the same. Great talk from an experienced guy!

  • @BM-ru7ef
    @BM-ru7ef 6 лет назад +1

    The Phillips Curve has been discredited since the 1970s, when there was high unemployment and high inflation.

  • @crisissocoylike
    @crisissocoylike 6 лет назад

    This is good!!

  • @thomaskingschillerlein7843
    @thomaskingschillerlein7843 6 лет назад +5

    That moment... When people refuse to buy or sell in US dollars... it's over.

  • @dieyoung8259
    @dieyoung8259 6 лет назад +1

    Garry Shilling is as sharp as a whip. He makes his message very clear so common people can understand. He flows like a rapper dropping street knowledge. But I have to disagree on China. I think China will turn inward and attempt to create an economy that is more self reliable. To think the United States is the only game in town is very dangerous.

  • @MemoryKasu
    @MemoryKasu 4 месяца назад

    Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.

    • @bernadofelix
      @bernadofelix 4 месяца назад

      I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.

    • @bernadofelix
      @bernadofelix 4 месяца назад

      Finding financial advisors like Stacy lynn Staples" who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

  • @peterdavila3045
    @peterdavila3045 6 лет назад

    Wow, Shilling is one smart cookie. Excellent interview. The only part I didn't agree with is when he said be Long on the Dollar. With all the debt in this country, how long before the world stops trusting our financial stability.

  • @tomski2671
    @tomski2671 6 лет назад

    This guy really gets what is going on. It does not mean his all predictions will be correct as the world is always changing, but he understands what is going on right now.

  • @nofurtherwest3474
    @nofurtherwest3474 6 лет назад

    "when pessimism turns to optimism then the end is near"

  • @redtroika8264
    @redtroika8264 6 лет назад +1

    Powell, keep tightening and raise them interest rates higher faster.
    End the artificial stimulus to save the rich and shaft the poor.

  • @michaelbond781
    @michaelbond781 6 лет назад

    Fed needed to tighten 5 years ago, and need to do so even more now. You can't have negative real rates forever.

  • @christophertolman7023
    @christophertolman7023 6 лет назад +2

    To sustain an economy country by country, people in the country must produce something of actual value. Hard goods. This is what makes demand for local currency go up, because foreigners need that particular currency to buy the goods. This means we need as much agriculture, manufacturing, energy, technology as we can get. When you have a high percentage of people working in service, government, and non life sustaining industries you aren't producing anything that anyone else needs. Teach your children to go into industries that have material need and value. The only reason our country has been held up so far above others, is because the dollar has historical trading value on the global market. It is the top currency borrowed, which means there is demand for it. Secondly our debt is too high to sustain. We can't make the interest payments, so congress keeps raising the debt ceiling and borrowing more money to pay the interest. It is a vicious, inescapable trend.

    • @sesahh9610
      @sesahh9610 6 лет назад

      I noticed no one commen ted regarding our national debt! Get out of the stock market...debts will have to be paid.

  • @MOBROOKS
    @MOBROOKS 6 лет назад +6

    Brace yourselves.

  • @lyonwisss7241
    @lyonwisss7241 6 лет назад +1

    Gary Schilling blaming other countries for America's problems is nonsense. It is people like him and the rest of the financial predators who have gutted the US real economy who have cause all the economic stagnation

  • @chungching9253
    @chungching9253 6 лет назад +6

    Why don't USA buy from countries like India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Phillipiens etc... import different things from different countries simple.. am I missing anything here

    • @ibrahimhassan3583
      @ibrahimhassan3583 6 лет назад +3

      supply and demand most likely those countrie cant supply enough for the us demand that's just my opinion.

    • @Bruintjebeer6
      @Bruintjebeer6 6 лет назад +1

      Yeh No the problem is that they buy more then they sell and that they pay more then they earn.
      The rest is demand and supply

    • @David_Lloyd-Jones
      @David_Lloyd-Jones 6 лет назад +2

      What you're missing is that the US does import from all those countries: they are all subcontracting to China, supplying the cheap labor Chinese industry needs. China then adds value and sends the finished products on to us. We pay for it all with basic resources -- oil, lumber, iron ore... -- and funnypaper.
      Trump whines about "They're taking all our money!" He should be grateful -- something he never learned how to do as a child. That funnypaper comes off American presses. it's the one thing America is good at making cheap. He misses the fact that all the imbalances re the other way: China is doing more for the US in real goods and services than the US is doing in funnypaper.
      Best investment? Do you have your wheelbarrow for carrying the dollars you'll need to buy your morning coffee?

    • @creativebobbo
      @creativebobbo 6 лет назад +1

      @David Lloyd-Jones Not completely true. We're great at making bullshit too. Take the jobless recovery for example. LOL All bullshit and now the fan is getting cranked up.

    • @kirstinstrand6292
      @kirstinstrand6292 6 лет назад

      @@David_Lloyd-Jones good analysis! Crystal clear. Myself. I know it but cannot put the awareness into words.

  • @doomtomb3
    @doomtomb3 6 лет назад

    The inflation isnt in bread and gasoline. It’s in housing, education, and healthcare. Get a clue.

  • @guvya
    @guvya 6 лет назад +5

    I listen to him and he makes a lot of sense and convinces me that the dollar is going to get stronger, I listen to Ray Dalio and he convinces me that the dollar is going to get weaker, and Dalio makes a strong argument too (in a nutshell that the huge budget deficit will need to attract new buyers of govt bonds and that in order to get those investors to buy US govt bonds the interest rate has to be higher and higher interest rate weakens the currency thus the dollar is destined to decline). Both can draw on current conditions to support their arguments a) the dollar has been getting stronger b) the interest rate is rising.

    • @robertvideochannel
      @robertvideochannel 6 лет назад

      thank you. Greeting from Vienna

    • @lisad2701
      @lisad2701 6 лет назад +2

      If I were a betting woman, I'd put my money on Dalio.

    • @kirstinstrand6292
      @kirstinstrand6292 6 лет назад +1

      @@lisad2701 I believe Dalio is correct. I've listened to his interviews...it's only logic...and experience.

    • @xiangli5829
      @xiangli5829 6 лет назад

      Higher interest rate normally does not weaken a currency. On the contrary, it should strengthen a currency if everything else stays the same. I think what Ray was referring to is that a high level of debt will likely lead to high inflation, which will in turn weaken a currency. More importantly, the perceived military, political and economic stability has significant implications for a currency. I think both Ray and Gary are making their argument from this perspective. If one believes that the level of debt will lead to a melt down of US economy, dollar will start to getting weaker from then on. On the other hand, if one believes that, compared to the rest of the world, US will continue to be an economic safe haven, then dollar will continue to be strong. I do 100% believe in the later.

    • @guvya
      @guvya 6 лет назад

      @@xiangli5829 good explanation. I think you're familiar with the interest rate parity (an economic theory that says currencies move to cancel out differences in interest rates) which suggests that he dollar is now overvalued because it offers a higher rerun. Nonetheless as you said there are many variables and eking out gains in 2019 will prove tough

  • @martinwalsh5212
    @martinwalsh5212 6 лет назад

    The usd is a time bomb , confused why he would defend it as a safe haven ! Safe ? Borrowing to pay interest ?

  • @jwilson3985
    @jwilson3985 6 лет назад

    Keep hiking rates. Stay tight fed.

  • @makedredd299
    @makedredd299 6 лет назад +2

    Never fear paper towel Trump to the rescue! #MAGAToiletPaper

  • @magusyilie
    @magusyilie 6 лет назад

    The whole world needs regime change. The Neo-liberal and Neo-conservative cancer needs to be purged. Until the worker is prioritized over the corporate executives, the workers and economy will continue to suffer.

  • @c.d.okeefe2734
    @c.d.okeefe2734 6 лет назад

    I think it's a massive oversimplification to say that people haven't adapted to the new technologies in terms of finding employment. A lot of jobs these days are insecure forms of employment, contract, temp, or gig job in markets that are oversaturated with people who have been cast aside by traditional employment. Not everyone is cut-out for STEM work, and even with those jobs, you tend to have a short shelf life. Once you hit 30, you run up against ageism.

  • @Bruintjebeer6
    @Bruintjebeer6 6 лет назад

    China’s economy may collapse but people forget that the Chinese go 5000 year back.
    They have been through this over and over again. Every time they came back.
    The Chinese are very patient and can overcome almost anything. The US not so much.

  • @minmaungmaung8129
    @minmaungmaung8129 6 лет назад

    Sometimes experts also utter bullshit out of predjudice.

  • @David_Me825
    @David_Me825 6 лет назад +9

    Dollar or other fiat currency is not a save heaven, especially the dollar. If other countries decides to dump their fiat dollar reserves and change it to gold (like whats happening in russia, china, india etc), then dollar is doomed. Gold and silver is safe heaven.

    • @akbarallardfreichmann2938
      @akbarallardfreichmann2938 6 лет назад +4

      The only safe heaven are: work, knowledge, skills, experience, taking notes, making mistakes, working together and taking care of each other. Unemployment is created by the rich. There are way more jobs then humans can do.

    • @novola1972
      @novola1972 6 лет назад +1

      tell that to the people who bought gold at almost 2k per ounce and silver at over 40$

    • @David_Me825
      @David_Me825 6 лет назад +1

      @@novola1972
      Buy gold and silver. Now!! Save yourself

  • @kennethsumerford3480
    @kennethsumerford3480 6 лет назад

    Being "in the dollar" made sense for the last 50 years but 2019 is seeing such countries as Russia and Iran getting out of the petrodollars and more countries will follow in 2019 and 2020.

  • @Michael-gf1jn
    @Michael-gf1jn 6 лет назад

    As I'm writing this I'm literally watching the usd index turn into one long red streak down the chart.. lol

  • @alfredhitchcock45
    @alfredhitchcock45 6 лет назад

    China outsourced odd jobs to China. China outsourced odd jobs to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Sri Lanka.

  • @kariuki6644
    @kariuki6644 6 лет назад

    What a fitting name

  • @AntilleanConfederation
    @AntilleanConfederation 6 лет назад

    End the fed. Give Congress the right to print money backed by the US treasury. Also re elect congress 👌🏻

  • @trevorhsu-mdh-5684
    @trevorhsu-mdh-5684 5 лет назад

    Doesn't China hold more of the U.S.'s debt than any other country? Also, when you say the buyer has the upper hand, the buyer isn't the U.S. government, it's the U.S. people and businesses, who have little to no say on the tariffs being put in place. Individual consumers in the U.S. are going to suffer from increased prices of Chinese goods. Just because the price goes up doesn't mean people are going to need things any less.

  • @consandpiracytheorums1563
    @consandpiracytheorums1563 6 лет назад

    I can't survive like this

  • @pacosdad4525
    @pacosdad4525 6 лет назад

    13:35 "World Trade Organization" not "World Trade Center"

  • @susanb9295
    @susanb9295 5 лет назад

    what about the fact US is borrowing over 1 million a minute?

  • @juniorberns
    @juniorberns 6 лет назад +1

    Interesting still, just like him I'm just stating the obvious

  • @ThaOriginalGangsta77
    @ThaOriginalGangsta77 6 лет назад

    Derivatives and student loans will be that trigger ..sprinkled with these foreign ADRs

  • @bitcoinbuffalo8771
    @bitcoinbuffalo8771 6 лет назад

    Too bad it was ruined with "Be Long The Dollar"...PMs are the safe haven.

  • @ESW206
    @ESW206 6 лет назад +1

    At first I I thought this guy made a lot of sense...after two minutes it became a random stream of consciousness and spewing of facts

  • @jimb5421
    @jimb5421 6 лет назад

    Old dude I's losing it.inflation is killing middle class, they don't measure the increase in prices on things they consume. Populism is nessesary to root out the rich. New economy good? What a joke.

  • @ResidualSelfImage
    @ResidualSelfImage 6 лет назад +1

    US dollar based commodity markets will be challenged by China yuan based commodity markets.

  • @laithb3091
    @laithb3091 6 лет назад

    I switched off when he said fed's inflation numbers are correct.

  • @64Street
    @64Street 6 лет назад

    Is this guy still married. I last saw him with his wife in the "American Gothic" painting. I would like to buy his pitchfork. He does mention his apple cart at 3:41. Good to see that he is still farming.

  • @scretching08
    @scretching08 6 лет назад

    Yes, Gary is right but China has a currency too and other nations buying Chinese goods may simply bypass the US dollar.

  • @skyacaniadev2229
    @skyacaniadev2229 6 лет назад

    There are 1.4 billion buyers in China (though currently has less purchasing power per capita but the gap is closing). EU, Japan, Korea and others are eager to sell. China quietly changed their economic model since 2009. Other parts of the video is excellent I think (except US dollar is safest).

  • @TheCrazyCartModChannel
    @TheCrazyCartModChannel 6 лет назад

    everyone I know who drives for Uber either did it part time in addition to their full-time job or did it as a full-time job. who the hell is so well off that they can choose to do that part time? For what reason?

  • @hamspam7647
    @hamspam7647 6 лет назад

    Watched video good

  • @bigqueue
    @bigqueue 6 лет назад

    One word...."FANG" stocks being over priced and a privacy concerns shock.

  • @mns8732
    @mns8732 6 лет назад

    Think he's correct. Except for characteristics of Uber drivers looking for flexibility instead of benefits.

  • @55erwin
    @55erwin 6 лет назад

    I’d go gold instead of the dollar

  • @petertosh4409
    @petertosh4409 6 лет назад

    Buy toliet paper and water.preppers will survive .

  • @humanonearth1
    @humanonearth1 6 лет назад

    Lol, you think when those corrections hit we saw indicators way ahead that were "cruising for a bruising". It's already too late. 11/12 isn't good odds for missing a recession at all.

  • @jcjensenllc
    @jcjensenllc 6 лет назад

    He makes many good points but he is still shilling the legacy system. Watch again and try to summarize what he said, "Go long on dollar". He also said, "When pessimism turns to optimism the end is near." Well, isn't go long on dollar optimism?

  • @Radnally
    @Radnally 6 лет назад

    Will EMs debt crash cause a recession due to contagion?

  • @axreyify
    @axreyify 6 лет назад

    Dr. Gary needs more clients to drive more fees

  • @jasonkim8410
    @jasonkim8410 5 лет назад

    2% per year by FRB

  • @AutomaticBadger
    @AutomaticBadger 6 лет назад

    Interesting. Actually, that's not where the term saboteur comes from. So if that's wrong...

  • @bigtime8924
    @bigtime8924 6 лет назад

    Eventually investors are going to lose confidence, especially as debt ridden millennials get older. When that happens the market will fall and prices will stabilize, which will devastate the economy..... we're living in a complete economic illusion....these are amazing times folks.

  • @shadowofpain8144
    @shadowofpain8144 6 лет назад

    Funny he don't say what free money for the last decade is going to do. Rof at these people.

  • @humanonearth1
    @humanonearth1 6 лет назад

    he's also completely wrong about trade wars he has it completely the opposite they are not good in the long term because they disrupt relationships and trust which are essential to business - they only good in the short-term and even then sometimes you come out with less than when you went in with, that's the nature of a poker game.

  • @carlosmonkee
    @carlosmonkee 6 лет назад

    Seriously? "Long the dollar "....thats great advice if you wanna get rekt

  • @guptarohit
    @guptarohit 6 лет назад

    I think this guy is comparing a countries debt to his personal debt when he is saying emerging market has huge debts. Developed countries have much more debt as compared to their ginormous GDP.

  • @zafarharis
    @zafarharis 6 лет назад

    he sounds like howard stern

  • @lianlight8447
    @lianlight8447 6 лет назад

    holy shit, long the dollar?? really?

  • @staraman1
    @staraman1 6 лет назад

    Great points, but end thesis of being long the dollar is awful... terrible advice! Long Bitcoin, Crypto, Gold, and Silver!

  • @drft6817
    @drft6817 6 лет назад

    why are people angry? I cant wait for the next recession so I can swap my gold for equities and have another rally. this is so fun! make bank squatting on hands. this is a dream!!!!

  • @marioremondino9837
    @marioremondino9837 6 лет назад

    Lol.... low pay in hospitality and retail. Aside from energy those are huge market drivers. If people have money they spend it!!! Even unemployment is almost 100% put back into the economy. Manufacturing is only relative to retail spending.
    ANSWER: pay us more in relation to cost of living.. manufactures!!! Lower volume of product you put out.

  • @Mr.CapitalOne
    @Mr.CapitalOne 6 лет назад

    Lets Rake back My pokerchips America! I monopolized the whole🌎!

  • @lagg-alot8308
    @lagg-alot8308 6 лет назад

    Gary missed the coming collapse in 2008, and he is missing the bigger problems now.

  • @debralegorreta1375
    @debralegorreta1375 6 лет назад

    What a crock o' caca. The dollar will not be world's reserve currency forever; and how can he be optimistic and at the same time acknowledge that the average guy has lost purchasing power for the last ten year (. . . actually for the last thirty)?

  • @johnbarron986
    @johnbarron986 6 лет назад +2

    Dollar save haven; dream on Gary

  • @consandpiracytheorums1563
    @consandpiracytheorums1563 6 лет назад

    I can't survive jike this

  • @anashussein6068
    @anashussein6068 6 лет назад +14

    Lmao this bloke, after saying all those smart-sounding-statements, says the dollar is a safe haven! Lmfao this bloke's a robot

  • @MegaPapa8888
    @MegaPapa8888 6 лет назад

    Gary Schilling underestimates FED. They have all the data FED needs and can make a good decision. The liquidity in the market is not that much. Otherwise, the 10 year Treasury won't suddenly spike a few days back. That will hurt our economy due to more interest payment we have to pay.

  • @joshredeau2322
    @joshredeau2322 6 лет назад

    blah blah blah

  • @humanonearth1
    @humanonearth1 6 лет назад

    Lol his interpretation of China, USA economic tensions is hilariously simplified. This guy has no understanding of the AI, quantum, and overall tech race. And the weakening military power of the US. It's outside his understanding clearly. This trade war is a gift to China, they are so more prepared than his simplistic summation implies.

  • @Fralther39
    @Fralther39 6 лет назад +2

    FIRST

  • @adriantyler1820
    @adriantyler1820 6 лет назад

    Stopped listening to this absolute rubbish half way through.
    1. Deflationary world really? So name a few things that have done in price.
    2. Low unemployment? Not according to John Williams of shaddow stats measuring it as was done previously.

  • @TheGroundskeeper
    @TheGroundskeeper 6 лет назад

    This guy is so self contradictory it’s shocking. “ there’s been too much pessimism”, “ went pessimism turns to optimism the end is near”, supply side arguments that were debunked back when he still had hair, saying the dollar has been declining is completely idiocy, I just don’t get why he gets paid

  • @alfredhitchcock45
    @alfredhitchcock45 6 лет назад

    He keeps on mentioning his postwar generation. Well they're all dead.

  • @jonbalocco5298
    @jonbalocco5298 6 лет назад

    Who is this..."CONE HEADED SPACE MONKEY" ???????