What Happens When ‘Biggest Housing Bubble In History’ Pops? Economist Dhaval Joshi Explains
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- Опубликовано: 8 авг 2024
- Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of Counterpoint at BCA Research, discusses slowing global economic growth, the Chinese real estate sector, the French luxury sector, and concerns with the U.S. labor market.
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*This video was recorded on September 8, 2023
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0:00 - Intro
2:00 - Global recession
11:40 - Tech valuations
17:00 - Soft vs. hard landing
19:42 - China's economy
28:50 - French luxury sector
34:40 - U.S. labor market
41:20 - Fractals
#investing #economy #realestate
Are you seeing signs of an economic slowdown where you live? Comment below and don't forget to like this video and subscribe!
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The manipulated seven!!
Hi David calling you from Perth wastern australia here the renting market is getting out of control we are at an average of 800aud per week! Or higher in some good areas. Strange to say even if RBA has increased the interest rate the housing market still go strong. But as many new construction companies are going bust the people are keeping renting, some new buyers are not longer elegible to get mortgage so they are also sitting renting. I'm guessing who is buying this property out there at this time?
The Australian Housing market was unbearable too!
If builders are going bust building new houses, is there really a housing bubble? Yes, housing may be unaffordable but isn't that a product of inflation rather than a bubble?
See my comment in the regular section. I’m in FL and while our economy is strong in general, we are in a recession for anyone who is an hourly worker. Rents and new mortgages are unaffordable for a middle class family. Gas and food prices doubled in the last year. That’s a recession.
Buying a house at these prices it's economic suicide.
Agreed. Glad I didn't jump in recently as well. I think there's a significant down side coming and for a protracted time frame.
David: Keep this guy on your interviewee list. He's brilliant !
Very informative guest , I feel he has a firm grasp on where the world economy is and where it’s heading,
We have been on a recession since the beginning of 2022, but big media and governments all over the world didn’t want to admit it. We need to be wise and use our brains. Knowledge is power and I’d like all the family to be powerful! Just purchased some AD
Dhaval has a very easy on the ear style of communicating his economic thesis. A definite guest for future shows David.
We buy things we don’t need, with money we don’t have, to impress people we don’t like - Dave Ramsey
Never rooted for one side to be so right and I hope 🙏 this bubble you guys have been talking about is true and it is about to land on top of a million needles 🙏
Very intelligent guest, learned a ton.
Great interview with a very thoughtful guest, please invite him on again David!
Thank you David. I found this guest's Global economic insights very illuminating. There's a lot of very clever people out there. Thank you for creating a funnel through which you share their knowledge and experience with us all 🤝🏻
Thank you for watching and being a part of this community!
I enjoyed this interview a lot. Very informative. Thanks David!
North America is in a horrific state in so many ways. I pray that things will change and families can afford a simpler lifestyle. Financially and spiritual, society lawlessness…..just terrible.
You can thank your local far left governments
Rents are astronomical, which means no disposable income. Which means people already have 2 computers why by another one? They have 2 smart phones, an old one and new one, why buy another one when their car just got repossessed? Do the people understand what happens when rent takes all your money? An absolute total implosion of the capitalist system. No purchasing power, then you can't buy, and if you can't buy they can't sell, and if they can't sell they can't make, and if they can't make you can't work.
And if you can't work, you can't eat. But long before that happens you eat hamburger and pasta rice and beans and that destroys your supply lines. And then your grocery stores can't stock food you can't afford or will not buy due to price.
I make $130,000 a year in a southern state that has always supposed to have been affordable. I decided not to buy a houses because these homes are triple what they're worth. That's a loan officer, title lawyer, and real estate agent not getting their share. I also happen to work with interior designers and agents on model homes for a living, so the same thing I'm doing (waiting), other buyers are also doing. So it's an everending cycle, it goes on and on. All because some airbnb and corporate investors couldn't have been stopped. A huge price to pay by everyone in society for something that was a small piece of legislation that could have been passed two years ago.
@@AB-fq4mrHang on, back up- before you level it there at the mom and pop person you should look at the 20 million illegals your leaders won't kick out (all who need housing) nor legislation that prevents foreigners buying your housing stock. Both those areas cause massive problems for your own people and far more so than an actual American citizen who actually (perish the thought) wishes to choose how he or she rents the building they own and pay a mortgage on.
It is actually exactly as you say and I foresee millions of people worldwide being affected - starvation, war, disease, uncontrolled immigration, the usual evils inflicted on us by the 1% in charge.
Really enjoyed this conversation, covered a broad range of subjects and got me thinking about a few sectors in the mid term…
Excellent guest, he communicated his wealth of knowledge most understandably, prompted by thoughtful questions. Thank you.
I like Dhaval. He gives a calm and level headed analysis. Great interview as always, David.
The man is calm
in the face of calamity.
😌
Thanks David. Love your content.
It would be wonderful to see these interviews offered in a podcast format. Many of us interested in such subjects are on the move and not able to watch a video.
Better yet…put in some ear buds🤷♀️
Thank you David for this conversation. We have a better perspective on the economic "Ball of Wax" for hearing how the dots connect China, France, tech. etc.
You’ll always find it difficult to pinpoint economic slow downs because people just use debt to maintain lifestyle’s, you notice these things late or often when it’s too late IMO.
I live in a relatively quiet part of southern Mexico that experienced a huge boom during the "pandemic". This sparked a ton of new construction. Every project being built is 8+ units. Now with the world being open again there's been a drastic reduction in tourism. So supply continues to come online while demand is steadily declining. How this will play out for Mexico is yet to be seen. It doesn't appear to me that they are prepared for this slow down.
It is but it isn't, because it costs this much to build houses now. In alberta and sask construction is slow as a crawl because prices are too low to build. But there is massive rental shortages, rents are skyrocketing but home price sales flat. Higher interest rates causing that.
So prices could be too high but in the "cheaper" areas there isn't enough supply and we can't profitably build more. So unless prices go higher we are constrained to existing supply. There is no construction inventory coming to alberta. They stopped building houses 7 years ago here.
Excellent work Mr Lin!
Great guest. Bring him back soon.
excellent guest...more of him please!
Very good interview David 👏
Biggest housing bubble in history? Oh you mean the Australian housing bubble?
No no no. He's talking about the U.S. 😂
No no no. He’s talking about the Canadian 😂😢
…..or New Zealand!
The US and China: unprecedented housing bubble
Australia: we wish we had your bubble, you are where we were in 2006
Australia just has a money laundering hell hole of a property market. Almost every house isn’t even insulated. Glorified million dollar tents 😂
the reason us has not been as affected as europe is the plunge protection team and the fed cookin the books
The strange thing about China is that they avoid the bubble due to their mentality of not wanting to reduce price. This is also the same in Bangkok, no one wants to give an inch
It need to increase supply for afforable houses, cars, goods not blindly keep raising interest.
The cost of construction is high due to demand and inflation and probably won't go down much. My insurance company says that to rebuild my current home would be higher than 130% of my current market value, but I don't live in a wild market. In CA, the value of the land may be more valuable than the structure.
Interesting guest, to analyse fractals makes more sense than single parameters.
Good Guest
I don't think the housing collapse will be bad on coastal areas. Last crisis on 2008 the houses in coastal new york didn't change at all. On areas that are coastal and can still have a good income the crisis won't hit as much. But if your house in Idaho or Kansas increased from 200k to 500k you will see that go down to 250k best example is my rental in long island ny went from 200k to 450k houses have go down a bit so now is 420k worst case scenario itwill go down to 400 even but I don't see that house going under 400k. My other house from 300 to 700k same area. Maybe will go down to 600k. A friend's house in Kansas went from 300k to 600k is now 420k. So things has already gone down. What more? No one knows
I am in Philly metro. We have been trying to find a house for over a year. Prices kept going up. Last fall-winter they went down and it was reassuring. We thought,yay, they crash is here. Then spring rolled out and sh@t hit the fan again. Prices went up. They are slowly going down, but there are still bidding wars. People are paying 20k-50k over asking! It’s insane! I am assuming, winter will be quieter, but crash? I don’t know.. and funny thing is, we aren’t really looking for the end of times, we just want some sort of common sense prices, you know, like 20% decline would be amazing
So what do we do with all the excess cash. Create more crypto? The bubbles of 1989 and 2008 didn't have hordes of sideline cash. As an individual investor, I can't even peruse a real estate listing before it goes pending. The instiutional folks won't let this come down.
What of innovations held back as soild hydrogen,for commercial plants , nuclear reactors small and self contained for a for
Can ADB200X be staked on Ledger?
David. I am seeing signs of slow down in Atlanta in terms of the length of time it is taking to finish some real estate projects.
I think the impact on luxury goods would be greater than mentioned here. The wannabe buyers will be cut and wealthy people try not to be ostentatious in deep downturns. There is a tipping point where suddenly things are bad enough that being flashy is NOT the thing to do.
It never is. At least for my family.
8x median home price to annual salary is not cheap but not a bubble
China is 47x
Why not?
Another killer Dave!!!! 🎉
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 3k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and ADB200X only, maybe a little BNB.
The market crash overrides everything. Rates will plummet negative if the markets need it to recover. Inflation and recession can run wild and the 99% can starve but if stocks collapse then the Fed will do anything.
You can see Dhaval laughing at what hes saying when he says "China is a recession, and by recession we mean 5% growth" He knows that if the USA saw 2% real growth over 3 years it would be an act of god.
What we should take a closer look is the Australian economy especially in regard to the mining sector.
🪨
What about Gold 🥇 and Silver 🥈 🤔
boy I've never seen so many adverts in a channel
0:00: 🏠 The speaker believes that China has the biggest housing bubble in history, with a total valuation of $100 trillion and 100-130 million empty homes.
4:33: 📉 The IMF had predicted that up to a third of the world would be in a recession by 2023, and while China is not in an outright recession, its growth has significantly slowed to below 4%. Germany has experienced a technical recession and an increase in unemployment, while the US market has shown some insulation from the global downturn.
8:54: 📉 The speaker is skeptical about the current tech boom in the US stock market, particularly in AI stocks, and questions the sustainability of their growth.
13:38: 💰 The speaker discusses the evaluation of tech stocks and suggests tilting towards healthcare and pharmaceuticals due to the high premium on tech stocks.
18:21: 📉 The recent high inflation has made people more fearful of future inflation, leading to increased risk premiums.
22:16: 📉 The slowdown in China's real estate market will have a significant impact on the economy and global growth.
26:58: 📉 The global economic slowdown, particularly in China, is expected to have a major impact on long-term demand for commodities.
31:46: 📉 Luxury brands are not completely recession-proof, but the primary target demographics are still wealthy individuals from China and the Middle East.
36:16: ❌ The speaker believes that the labor market is not strengthening and that more layoffs are needed to bring down inflation.
40:27: 💡 The complexity of price patterns in financial markets is important, and a breakdown in complexity can signal a trend change.
44:57: 💡 The approach to markets is contrarian, placing emphasis on psychology, non-linear systems, and statistics.
Recap by Tammy AI
Hes so happy about the Recession coming in, like hes super excited to be witnessing it.
Hell yes. We need a reset so badly. $1,000,000 for a piece of crap house here on West Coast.
It's all way more with numbers what's the percent percapita is the question
We get ownership to our own shelter. Something that should be a human basic right. Shame on the banks for doing this and ruining ppls lives for greed
2nd half of the interview this guy hit the wall
More people need ro invest in the blue chips here. Im around 90% between BTC and ADB200X combined. Good advice Lark thanks!
All of this tells me QE 2.0 is coming. Another 12 trillion USD digitally printed.
Myself during this Bear Market only trying to focus on BTC, ADB200X, ETH, SOL, MATIC. not losing sight of BNB and GALA. 🇨🇦
I wish we asked him about the CRASH the biggest economic gurus are calling for within the next 12 months ; and HIS prediction of the physical gold/silver market .
But a very good interview nonetheless …
Im DCAing in ADB200X as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. Im taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
ADB200X has the most potential to do more than X10. ETH and BTC will most likely do a X5-X6, but thats fine for me. Gotta look for better entry points while I stake IRIS and PGEN, then wait for Polygens next raise as I also look at their new partnership
What I don’t get is all of these economists talk about America growing at 2% or so. However inflation at 4% means a real recession of -2%. Did I misunderstand economics 101 or are you guys just making up a joke narrative. Makes me think you have very little knowledge of economics. GET REAL.
100 trillion dollar asset bubble is collapsing, but there won't be a Minsky moment. WTF?!?!?
Happy sunday all😮
Imho China and the USA are also in an ego battle: who can afford to lower intrest rates lást. USA has some time until the elections but it will happen before the elections. China has 1.5 billion (!) people to ‘feed’… in addition there are the war topics, economic sanctions that neither can afford really and that limitedly effective anyway because of interconnectivity of world trade and politics. The real question is which is houng to be saved first? The usd or the us economy? A second wave of inflation will be unavoidable and the housing market will be protected by ‘scarcity’ and the younger people will not be able to buy a house etcetc.
Don't understand how one can call US housing as a bubble when one can still purchase a 4 bed detached villa for under $300k. It is not housing that is in a bubble, but the insane debt levels of Americans elsewhere.
I feel that the last bull run was bolstered by all the money being printed. Major returns next bull run but I think they will be tamer in my humble opinion. A 10x on ADB200X is and a 15x on polygon are fair considering how much those two coins are interwo
Disability claims are through the roof too
We are obviously talking about China more, USA less... debt.
400,000 -600,000 people are out of work in the US because the the Writer’s Strike and the Actor’s Strike. SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA, Teamsters, and especially all of IASTE are all out of work.
Bro, i bought ADB200X in September after your video. im up 79%.
When is it going to happen? Everyone is talking about it so confidently and no one actually speaks of timing.
Im waiting on ADB200X dont like buying after its already pumped, still buying btc
Job losses are one measure of the recession. In addition, wage increases have slowed - people are happy to have a job and are not pushing for higher wages ( except for the unions ) so the economy is softening. Food and gas prices have doubled, yet the Fed doesn’t count these in their official inflation number. Check your monthly spending if you don’t believe me. We are in a recession.
FAce it this way: the big mac will not go lower, huoses are in a bubble and commodities must catch up period.
🎉 Get him back to deep dive fractals please!
Ai will slowly seep into the economy but the people are moving in the opposite direction.
Ive dumped all of my SOL- its toast for now. All converted to ADB200X and king BTC.
Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC ADB200X and ETH
ADB200X, ETH, and more would be great.
Boys is it best to invest in *ADB200X* monthly or weekly? Im thinking the fees will be higher if done weekly.
Now that Amazons ADB200X is around its all about the question when and how much. I prefer this over ATOM, ALGO, L2 based ones and whatsoever
Same chat in the same 70s and it never pulled back. Deal with it, this isn't 2008.
New week up as many FOMO in. But the ADB200X story isn’t over yet. The only strat that works under all circumstances is DCA all the time with solid, large companies (not hyped ones).
Give us the numbers. What's with the guessing?
Housing market has become bad and there will be no crash even with 10% interest rate..and even super inflation prices will increase another 30% this year..
BRO WHY ARE YOU NOT TALKING ABOUT ADB200X
While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH or any top alt coin and playing defensive they are missing on quality projects that are about to be launched on CEX. For example ADB200X will hit mainstream soon, 10x-20x quite possible even during this bear market b
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. Will ADB200X hit 1000? Not sure but I hope so.
Got a pin right here.
For that bubble
I bought 2500 ADB200X tokens, too. It will be great profit when it is listed for $2
biggest market explosion ever is ADB200X
Not sure about BTC and ETH, but putting USDT in ADB200X for 10x makes sense.
Hopefully ADB200X will do good.. have alil over 10million ADB200X coins
Whats better holding into crash or being safe with ADB200X tell me
DCA ADB200X and chill. Youll be obnoxiously rich in less than 5 years. Whats 5 years among friends?
Please let real estate crash so I can afford a home
should you sell a little of ADB200X when you start to make a profit or just hold?
I already converted all my ETH to ADB200X, now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.
Investing strategies are a waste of time because we are all going to die
Crypto should just be synonymous with scam at this point, its crazy