I don't think we are looking at another AQN case yet (BCE has a stronger balance sheet and business model), but we are clearly seeing bad management in action.
Even if they can somehow get away without cutting the dividend, I would assume that adding all this extra debt will prevent any near/medium term stock appreciation as they add to their debt levels and impair their future cash flows. I think there are better opportunities. Thanks Mike.
My portfolio is up 15% over the past three months, not including dividends. I have 350 shares of Telus, which are admittedly down, but I bought them as they have no media component.
Im in big trouble. I have both BCE et Telus... Im -10% on BCE et -4% on Telus. What to do now?... Should I take the lost and move forward or should a wait for the recovery?...
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. I added a few shares recently. A few things has happened: downgrade of debt, sale of Maple leafs, drop in projected cap exp. The sale of maple leafs was a high quality asset for sure. I think probably a mistake long term considering sports franchise seem to be an appreciating asset but it wasn’t terribly productive by my guestimation 37.5% of (800 M revenue with maybe 10-30% of that as profits). I don’t think they need to focus on revenue growth, they can also grow net earning through operational efficiency. At high dividend and debt levels, something needs to give. It seems pretty easy to turn this ship around considering they are a very profitable business but can management do that simple task?
I held a fairly large position in BCE in my portfolio, but sold after they cut their dividend growth. For me the writing was on the wall and even though I took a hit on moving to RBC, I think it is worth it for the long-term out look.
Sounds like the market is saturated. everyone has a phone. That explains Telus expanding into other sectors, like security, which I have not been impressed with, as a consumer.
It's definitely a tougher market than what Telcos want us to believe. I think diversification will be key in the future, but each Telco must find a good way to do it... it's still not a success!
Unfortunately, that depends on each situation. To determine if I want to keep a stock in my portfolio or not, I don't base my decision on the stock performance (up or down), but rather review my investment thesis (the reasons why I bought the stock) vs what is happening right now and if the numbers (fundamentals) match my investment thesis. For example, if I buy a stock thinking the company will grow fast due to an amazing product and will gain market shares, but revenue stagnates for 3 years, then my investment thesis wasn't right and I'll get rid of the stock. I hope this helps!
Si Bell changeait de politique et rachetait des actions plutôt que d'augmenter le dividende, au moins il réduirait les dépenses en dividende à long terme. J'ai la sensation que Bell devient de plus en plus le Sears des télécoms canadiennes; incapable de réformer son modèle d'affaire et qu'ils vont décliner pendant plusieurs années avant de disparaître complètement. Ça serait dommage surtout que je vis près du siège social corporatif.
@@DividendGuy Exactement. Quand on y pense, BCE a le plus grand réseau de télécom au Canada, à certains endroit c'est pratiquement un monopole. BCE pourrait ouvrir son immense réseau à la concurrence, imposer son prix avec son pricing power et donc générer davantage de cashflow. Je regrette tellement d'avoir laissé passer l'occasion de m'entretenir avec Louis Vachon hier, pendant l'inauguration de Place Banque Nationale pour lui faire part de ce sujet (Louis Vachon étant un administrateur de BCE).
What they sold will not even bring them back to their January 2024 debt level. It's a good step to pay off debt, but it was not a dramatical improvement. Just cancelling for this year's new debt. BCE still faces the same growth problems and the same cash flow issues. They are not not out of the woods yet.
Mike, thanks, that was great analysis!
Very welcome!
Thanks Mike. Good analysis and clever ending!
Thx! I wanted to have fun for recording a second video because of the announcement hahaha!
Thanks Mike! Unfortunately like AQN sold my position. Still holding ENB. My black eye will heal😊
It's all about having a diversified portfolio! we can't win them all :-)
Good explaination Mike. Very risky to hang on...kind of like Algonqin Power which was a disaster!
I don't think we are looking at another AQN case yet (BCE has a stronger balance sheet and business model), but we are clearly seeing bad management in action.
Thank you i purchased more bce thank you for your advice
I didn’t give any advices in this video. I don’t give financial advice since I don’t know your situation.
Sounds like our Canadian government.. kicking the can down the road. Thank you. 🙏
Even if they can somehow get away without cutting the dividend, I would assume that adding all this extra debt will prevent any near/medium term stock appreciation as they add to their debt levels and impair their future cash flows. I think there are better opportunities. Thanks Mike.
It's going to be a long and difficult path to go back to growth. Not impossible, but surely painful :-)
Awesome as usual. Thanks
Thank you :-)
Excellent Mike.
Thank you my friend :-)
My portfolio is up 15% over the past three months, not including dividends.
I have 350 shares of Telus, which are admittedly down, but I bought them as they have no media component.
Good results :-) The market has been generous with us over the past few months :-)
Im in big trouble. I have both BCE et Telus... Im -10% on BCE et -4% on Telus. What to do now?... Should I take the lost and move forward or should a wait for the recovery?...
Thanks Mike, have you taken into consideration the recent sale MLSE ($3.5b) to Rogers in your current outlook?
Hello John! You should watch the last 3 minutes of the video ;-)
@@DividendGuy 🤪 Tu m'as eu avec ton sign-off 12:14, j'vais pas le gout d'écouter des annonces so I signed-off :) Bonne semaine.
@@johnnyv5995 ah! il faut regarder jusqu'à la fin sinon on rate des bouts ;-) hahaha!
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. I added a few shares recently. A few things has happened: downgrade of debt, sale of Maple leafs, drop in projected cap exp. The sale of maple leafs was a high quality asset for sure. I think probably a mistake long term considering sports franchise seem to be an appreciating asset but it wasn’t terribly productive by my guestimation 37.5% of (800 M revenue with maybe 10-30% of that as profits). I don’t think they need to focus on revenue growth, they can also grow net earning through operational efficiency. At high dividend and debt levels, something needs to give. It seems pretty easy to turn this ship around considering they are a very profitable business but can management do that simple task?
I held a fairly large position in BCE in my portfolio, but sold after they cut their dividend growth. For me the writing was on the wall and even though I took a hit on moving to RBC, I think it is worth it for the long-term out look.
I think there is a possibility they get out of this, but it will take courage and initiatives. Simply doing the same thing won't make it.
I'm waiting for 20% cut in the dividend and a replacement of the CEO. But I'll keep watching NFL!
I'm really interested to follow the rest of the story in 2025!
They send folks to try to get me to subscribe to their services every 3 months. Thanks!
Telcos in Canada are fighting to get more customers all the time, it's a tough market for all of them right now.
Sounds like the market is saturated. everyone has a phone. That explains Telus expanding into other sectors, like security, which I have not been impressed with, as a consumer.
It's definitely a tougher market than what Telcos want us to believe. I think diversification will be key in the future, but each Telco must find a good way to do it... it's still not a success!
They just sold MLS to Rogers to pay debt, just as you predicted😂
That's step #1 to reduce debt. Then, the hard part remains to generate growth... we'll see how it goes!
What should a stockholder do?..i want to dump this but the lose is there!
Unfortunately, that depends on each situation. To determine if I want to keep a stock in my portfolio or not, I don't base my decision on the stock performance (up or down), but rather review my investment thesis (the reasons why I bought the stock) vs what is happening right now and if the numbers (fundamentals) match my investment thesis. For example, if I buy a stock thinking the company will grow fast due to an amazing product and will gain market shares, but revenue stagnates for 3 years, then my investment thesis wasn't right and I'll get rid of the stock. I hope this helps!
Si Bell changeait de politique et rachetait des actions plutôt que d'augmenter le dividende, au moins il réduirait les dépenses en dividende à long terme. J'ai la sensation que Bell devient de plus en plus le Sears des télécoms canadiennes; incapable de réformer son modèle d'affaire et qu'ils vont décliner pendant plusieurs années avant de disparaître complètement. Ça serait dommage surtout que je vis près du siège social corporatif.
Ça serait un bon temps pour racheter des actions en effet. Le problème est au niveau du cash flow requis pour les acheter...
@@DividendGuy Exactement. Quand on y pense, BCE a le plus grand réseau de télécom au Canada, à certains endroit c'est pratiquement un monopole. BCE pourrait ouvrir son immense réseau à la concurrence, imposer son prix avec son pricing power et donc générer davantage de cashflow. Je regrette tellement d'avoir laissé passer l'occasion de m'entretenir avec Louis Vachon hier, pendant l'inauguration de Place Banque Nationale pour lui faire part de ce sujet (Louis Vachon étant un administrateur de BCE).
BCE just sold their share in the Leafs to Rogers. Their debt situation just improved dramatically. Chill.
What they sold will not even bring them back to their January 2024 debt level. It's a good step to pay off debt, but it was not a dramatical improvement. Just cancelling for this year's new debt. BCE still faces the same growth problems and the same cash flow issues. They are not not out of the woods yet.
Bell has over $40 billion in debt. $4 billion is not dramtic