Why Posting Pictures of Parlay Tickets is DANGEROUS (& Why Sportsbooks LOVE IT) | Reaction Series
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- Опубликовано: 1 окт 2024
- In this video I discuss why posting pictures of your parlay tickets, whether they are winners or whether they lost just by one bet, is dangerous, but why sportsbooks love it and encourage it.
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OMG that's crazy Will. That's my Sportsbook, Tiverton Rhode Island 😆
I'll be working the national championship tonight!
My dad constructs multiple 12-team parlays every day and puts $1 on each one. He hits one about every two years. I'd have to ask how many he plays a year to figure out if he's beating the odds but I think he is. He follows a process he came up with after doing this for 15+ years. I told him I won't bet parlays since I aim for consistent profits but he does it for entertainment so it works for him.
When you were talking about the 2-team parlay paying out at 2.6 to1 odds, when it should be 4 to 1, you made a mistake. The true odds of a 2-team parlay should be 3 to1 and not 4 to 1. As you said (assuming a 50% hit rate) you would have a 25% chance of cashing, but the math on that is 100-25 = 75/25 = 3. I'm guessing that you just misspoke and know that 25% chance equals 3 to 1, but it's good to clarify. Also, lets say that you've kept records and believe yourself to be a 55% capper on college basketball (for example), your probability of hitting a 2-teamer improves to .3025 (or 2.3 to 1) and suddenly the 2-team parlay has become a slightly better wager than 2 single wagers.
Obviously, very few are 55%+ cappers in any sport, but parlays are only bad bets for bettors who hit under break even, as they make the losing better lose their money faster. A positive expectation bettor can actually grow the bankroll a little faster by incorporating parlays into his play. The higher variability makes it riskier though, so you still want to balance risk by betting more on single plays and "sprinkling" parlays. I used to do 70-80% on singles and 20-30% on parlays with pretty good success. I profited my last 3 years betting college hoops. The problem for me is that it was so much work for really not that much profit (I made between 3-4K profit for each of those years). It would have been much less stressful to get a part-time gig with Walmart for extra cash.
Anyway, I very rarely bet anymore and gradually I started enjoying college hoops again like I used to before I tried to make it a source of income.
No one is gonna make money betting college hoops longterm
Sportsbooks love parlay bettors. Don't bet parlays unless you're getting positive EV on each leg
Betting is completely random . Don’t bet parlays at all
@@kevinwilson3337 If. you are getting positive EV on each leg there is nothing wrong with betting parlays. Betting is NOT completely random. I don't bet a lot of parlays but occassionally if i find a couple bets where im getting -200 or so and i know each leg is positive EV i will combine them for a parlay.
@@dannyc5389 when i say random I mean games of chance. For example point spreads , overs and unders and prop bets.
@@kevinwilson3337 I mainly bet derivative markets and props, and do some steam chasing in basketball and football. I do quite well in that,but it gets harder when they start limiting. Been practicing my card counting a lot lately hmmm maybe it's time to hit the casinos for a change of pace.
Totally agree. The "almost hit" is the worst possible outcome as the guy will think since he was so close, he will win next time and keep playing parlays. This reminds me of my ex wife who liked to play scratchoff tickets. The Texas Lottery used to give away these cheap gifts if you sent them 50 losing tickets. I told her she could buy the cheap gift for the price of one of those losing tickets. Parlays and the Lottery are a tax on people who flunked math.
I love this series. Keep it up!